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M21:57

Transcription

Once again, good evening everyone. Hope that you had a wonderful week thus far. I hope most of you guys right have been, you know, back testing and also for testing, which is basically just, you know, tape reading, looking at current price action. Right.

So today, right, we'll be going over what what has happened, and I will give you guys, right, a forecast of what I expect. So I will be looking at Bitcoin, of course, Ethereum, the index futures triads, and the forex market, you know, which is something that we usually look at. So tomorrow, we have FOMC, right, at 2 p.m., right? In my opinion, will be one of one that will spark interest, right? It will, you know, hopefully give us that move that we, you know, have been waiting for, which is just any form of expansion in any direction, right? We don't really care, right? We just need a range to be established, right? And whenever a range is established, you know, that usually breeds more expansion. So, it's what people usually think is that it's just, you know, expansion and consolidation. That's not what it is most of the times. Most of the times it's, you know, price expands, then it either expands against, or it just reverses, then it consolidates afterwards, right? So that's basically what we're looking for. High of the week, low of the week, right? I'll just say Thursday right now to, you know, to see most, you know, markets reverse due to the fact that, you know, we have most of the word folder news events on that day. So we expect volatility tomorrow, Thursday, and Friday. And I'm expecting, you know, more volatility this week, you know, even more than what I was expecting 30 to 45 minutes ago, due to the fact that, um, there are reports that believe the the US has released some data that, you know, that let me actually get the actual news headline. Biden order for nuclear prep against Russia, China, North Korea. Um, you know, if you guys remember two years ago, right, I said that, you know, there will be a time when this will be in the headlines, you know, even if it doesn't happen, right? It's in the headlines, right? And the only reason that that they put in the headlines is to do what? To drive fear, which, you know, is not here. We don't fear anything. Right. But God, right? So now you have literally all over the internet, you know, all of these news talking about nuclear war, Russia, China, North Korea. The West just doing what they usually do, trying to make make the East look bad. And actually, it's the East that's, you know, good. The West is actually garbage, right? The west is Which is why, you know, I have set my heart and on leaving the west, right? It's garbage. Everything about here is garbage. Education is garbage. The music is garbage. The culture is trash. Everything here is trash. Too much, you know, the violence between people of the same race, they just everyone just hates one another. Everyone's always, you know, disrespectful, hating, mean, you know, it's just crazy. But yeah, didn't have to go into that. But yeah, so we have, you know, all of these news, all of the news again from the east as well, where for some reason, right, the east usually has all of the war. Why? Why do you think so? Because it's authentic. The West is not authentic. Nothing about the West is authentic. No one is supposed to even be here. No one, you know, we all moved here. White people came from Europe. Black people came from, you know, Africa, and Asian people came from obviously Asia, right? Anyways, so we have Iran saying that, you know, they're going to attack Israel. Just saying that. And they keep posting all of the news to get us scared for some reason. Stupid. Anyways, if that actually happens, even if it's a small tactical nuke, right, then even if it doesn't hurt anyone, right? Then that would, you know, affect the market, right?

So, right now, as you guys will see for Bitcoin and Ethereum, what do we see? We see, you know, price dramatically fell, right? Dropped for Ethereum. You can see that what happened with just 9 days left, right, in this monthly candle, and this is something that's important. And of course, it is fractal. Time is fractal. Price is fractal. When you combine them, right, the sequence will be fractal as well. So here, this is a telltale sign, right, of what to expect the next candle to do. So here you can see that what, right, over, you know, half of the time has passed for this month, right? And we're going to watch this to see what happens when, you know, there's just a quarter of, you know, time left in this month. So here, right, 2/3, I'll say of time passed. Well, not 2/3, more than that. So here we're above the half point of where this candle traded. And right, it's very important to make sure that you're always looking at the CME data for Bitcoin and Ethereum. Right? Here you can see that we we have not traded above the half point as yet. Right? And price looks, you know, to be pulling here, right? So it doesn't really matter what happens here. And here you can see that price is further from this high, and this is from this high, and that's just my way of just telling you that there could be sequential SMT here, right? It doesn't matter, right, if there is, and then, you know, we have price drop, then we get, you know, the fundamentals, which would be, you know, just something dropping somewhere, right? Something popping off somewhere, right? Then that would give you a reason, right, to expect lower prices with haste. But obviously, we're not, you know, bullish to, you know, to be buying anywhere here, right? If we are buying anywhere, it should be, you know, below these lows, nowhere else, right? Well, personally, that's my opinion. That's what I believe. That's what I think, right? You know, I'm not about to be buying in premium, no matter what. No, no matter what, right? I'm looking at the monthly time frame for Bitcoin and Ethereum. But we'll get back to this and, right, we'll see what transpires here. Right? You can see me highlight these lows right here, right? These orange lines. So that's to show you that that's liquidity. Right? Also, right, it's not anything really, but, right, we saw price trade above here and here, right? So the draw liquidity, right, for this, which was pretty much, right, they didn't give much of a chance to really trade this. And whenever you see something like this happen, right, it's usually, you know, returned to all of these gaps right here, they're usually returned to. Why? They just, you know, just ran price up, got everyone excited. Oh, the bull market is back. You know, price is just going up now. It's not going to come back down. People are getting interested in stocks now, right? Because one of their cousins, their uncle, their friend got lucky, just bought some random stock and then it's, you know, green now. And then, you know, right as we have this happening, you know, all of this news, you know, just coming out and it's insane, right? What's happening hasn't happened before in our lifetime. No one here has, you know, lived to see anything like this happen. It has happened before because, as you know, history repeats itself, but we have not seen this happen before. So anyways, you can see all everything right here in this price leg, you know, compared to this is symmetrical, right? So whenever you see some big news event happen and price spikes, then just drops, then you know it will be over. Then you see, well, this happened here. They, you know, Iran finally attacked Israel, or, you know, what to expect here, right? We can see that, you know, price just expanded off of these lows without any SMT, not even a precision swing point, right? That did not happen. So everything right here, right, is, you know, I have reason to believe that it's this is manual intervention because the algorithm, right, it works based off of what? SMT. SMT causes price reverse. We had SMT here. We had SMT here. SMT was even here, but there's none here. Right here, we had a position swing point SMT. Even here, we have SMT, but there's none here. All throughout this price action, and you could go back, even here, every turn is SMT, but not right here. So, this gets me excited, right? Even to see all of these candles right here. Why? Because just as how we had these gaps here, you know, be filled, these ones will eventually be filled too, right? This price action right here, it's not, you know, you know, vanilla. It is confusing, right? It's worse. You know, we have all of these geopolitical issues happening right now, and also we have this contract coming to an end very soon. So the contract, you can see it will be ending, well, expiring Friday the 20th of next month, right? And something to understand, something to know, something very important to to understand as I've said just now is that whenever we have contract expiries, right, a new quarter begins, which means that a new delivery of price action begins. So if the last quarter, you know, or contract delivered range price action, the next one will be either manipulation or just expansion, but usually, right, and here we have in Q4, the next contract, right here, you can see that this is this is what ranged price action, right? Price is functioning within this range right here up until the end right here. This high right here. We have this low right here. That's our current range, right? So, we want to see what sequential SMT, SMT followed by a lower time frame sequential SMT and a pullback within the range with fundamental data here. All right, it's pretty much straightforward right here. happened today, which is, you know, something that we want to see more. So here we have what sequential SMT, you know, this is the 15-minute time frame, and this is the daily cycle. So during New York, this is, you know, up to, I believe, 2 months ago, we started to see these types of setups less, but here we can see that they're coming back, which means that we have volatility coming. So that's something to note, right? Usually before you see the higher time frame sequential S&Ts working, we see, you know, we're going to see the fingerprints on the lower time frames first. So here we see price run above this high, then drop, then we see sequential SMT again, price run below this low, expands. Also, as I've said before, right, this is the type of price action that creates ranges, right? So if you're someone that, you know, has likes to trade ranges, you want to know how a range is formed. It's like it's like this. See here, price failed to break above this high, the sequential SMT. Then here, it failed to break below this low, sequential SMT. Then what happened? Just rallied again and formed the range. The Dow, you know, basically followed what the E-mini NASDAQ did. Here, right, we can see that the pound, right, it actually went where we wanted it to go. This candle right here, which formed after, right, we noted these highs that the draw liquidity was above these highs. And if price went above these highs and there's no sequential SMT, what do you do? Nothing. Right here, we saw the US dollar just, you know, lose its footing completely for now. Right? Below here, we have a liquidity pool. Below here and above, we have a liquidity pool. So the thing to, you know, note is that everything is becoming symmetrical. The US dollar is dropping. The euro is going higher. The Great British pound is going higher. ES is going higher. The NASDAQ is going higher. And the Dow is in sync as well. Right? That's important. Why? That's a telltale sign that we're going to get reversal, and the reversal and expansion will be symmetrical. So, this is, you know, what I've been waiting for. Like, we haven't seen this for over a month. Symmetrical price action. It's been insane. Actually, you know, trading over the last month has actually been, you know, not the easiest fee. Here, right, we noted this fair value gap right here, if you guys remember, right here where we have this fair value gap, right? And we have this type of price action, whereas we have price trade with, you know, below here, there's no gap here, but on the higher time frame, right, the daily time frame, what do we have? And this is something that, you know, I believe is important as well. So here we have the, we have a 4-hour time frame fair value gap right here, and you can check this. We talked about it the last time, and we expected price to go higher as well. And also, the lowest candle is a precision swing point. Let me just. So here we have a daily FVG, right? Price is trading into a daily FVG. It's not visible here, which, you know, is what you want to see. So to make to make this understandable or, you know, more understandable, let's say it this way. If this was a 4-hour time frame fair value gap right here, but this is, this would be what the 1-hour time frame price trades into a 4-hour time frame fair value gap here, but there is no 1-hour time frame fair value gap. But here, there is a 1-hour time frame fair value gap. That's a cracking correlation right here. It looks invisible, like there's no level here if you're just looking at the 4-hour time frame, right? But here, there's a gap. So there's no gap here on the 4-hour time frame. There's a gap here on the 4-hour time frame. But while there is no gap here on this time frame, on the daily time frame, there is a gap. Do you understand? So here, what does this look like? It just looks like price ran below this low, and there is nothing here to support it. Meanwhile, on the daily time frame, there is something to support it. So we'll talk about that more the next time we meet. Right. I hope that you found something useful from this. It's probably going to be, you know, a bit confusing, right? It's like, okay, he's saying something new again. Yes. Right. So, we'll be back, as I've said, Thursday at the same time. And hopefully by then, right, we get the volatility that we are looking for. With all that being said, good luck and good trading.