Transcription
Hello, good morning everyone. I hope you are doing well. Today, market review. We will talk about BTC, which is currently retesting the lows it left on Saturday and Sunday. We will see if we have setups or not, if it's bearish and if we can go lower. We will see all of this in detail. We will of course talk about Ether, which is falling back below $4000, and altcoins which are decreasing while the US market is rather on the rise. So we will look at the different cryptos, especially those you are asking me to analyze. Today, we will look at Pump, Ada, and OG. Before I start, I wanted to thank you. We have reached 12,000 subscribers. I received a comment on the last video, I hadn't seen it. We have reached 12,000 subscribers. It's quite crazy, isn't it? Knowing that it's been a little over 3 years, 3 and a half years now that I've been making a video every day for 3 years. We see it here in the number of videos. It's always the little daily appointment that brings pleasure to share my market vision with you, to answer your questions, to analyze your altcoins, and especially to interact with you on Discord. So, I want to say it's just the beginning, it's something I love, and I will continue to do it. So it helps me, for me, it's already a bit like a trading journal for all my analyses and my trades. And it helps you too because I know that now I have trained over 400 people. I have accompanied a lot of people, and it's a great pleasure. So, don't hesitate to subscribe, I say this phrase so rarely because I don't consider myself a YouTuber or anything like that, and it's not for me to say this, but for those who are not subscribed, don't hesitate to subscribe. To go even further, give a little like to this video. It always brings pleasure.
Well, I'll start here with BTC. So, we have two consecutive red days here. We are currently retesting the lows. We see that if I draw a support level here, we are coming back to test this low level. We are forming a range. We see it clearly, our range materializing between these two boundaries. Okay? An upper extremity around $115,000, a lower extremity around $108,000-$109,000. For now, it's a yo-yo. Okay, there is no market direction. However, we do have a slight bearish pressure in the short to medium term because we are below the moving averages. In fact, it's simple, we are in a big compression. We have the daily tunnel, which is simply three moving averages that allow us to materialize this trend. For those who haven't set up this tunnel yet, well, this tunnel, this indicator, you go here, you put "multitime frame Vegas" and you can add it here. You have pivot points if you want two indicators in one. So, this puts the exact indicator you see at this level. So we have this long-term level which, well, holds this trend, which is simply our daily tunnels that I am watching very carefully, which has served as support recently, and we are in this compression where just above we have the 15-minute tunnel, the 1-hour tunnel, and the 4-hour tunnel. The 15-minute tunnel served as resistance again last night and this morning at 10 am. So we see that we are here, as I said, in this compression, in a range. The best thing to do in general is to position yourself at the extremity. The lower extremity is a good zone to look for longs. Currently, we are in a good zone to look for longs, and the upper extremity is a good zone to take profits. We are in a phase of uncertainty, meaning we are at a significant medium to long-term level, this big pivot that served as support for a long time, and we had this big dump with this liquidity grab. So, that's why technically, in the long term, we still have a higher chance of reaching a new ATH. Why? Because we are in an uptrend, and the probabilities are more in favor of a recovery and a continuation of the rise. But on the other hand, we notice a weakening of this uptrend with a new high here. We are not managing to break it. We see that the highs are getting lower and lower. Every time we broke a high, we moved quickly. Here, we broke the high, we moved strongly. Here, we broke it, it was more timid. Here, we re-broke it, it was even more timid. So, we see that we have a weakening, which is normal. The trend has been going on since 2023. So it's been 3 years now. So it's completely normal for a trend to exhaust itself. In any case, I am watching the long-term level, which is generally the $100,000 level. If we really fall back below this level, then it would be really bad in the long term. For now, nothing alarming for those who do short to medium-term trading, there can be opportunities here. As I said, someone who trades a range, it's interesting to look for longs where we are. Okay. Someone who trades, well, it's more like what we did today, where we came back to test the 15-minute tunnel. You see the confluence with the pivot point, my slippage here, the daily pivot points were not in the 15-minute tunnel. It's a shame. I generally like to have tunnel and pivot point confluences, especially in the short term. I mainly watch the 15-minute tunnel and the daily pivot point. Okay, but here we have one in confluence now around $112,700. If we go there in the next few hours, it could be a good zone, as I said, to look for trend continuation because the 1-hour is crossing downwards, the 4-hour, in fact, we are in a configuration where, for those who know how I work when I do trend continuation, I like to have a convergence of several time units. For example, we can take the 1-day, the 4-hour, and the 1-hour. When I look for longs, I like to have a convergence, meaning a daily that is bullish, a 4-hour that is bullish, a 1-hour that is bullish, and so on. In general, when we are in this kind of configuration, all these time units pointing upwards, it's much more pleasant to trade, to do trend continuation. There are fewer false signals. Okay? And especially the probabilities are in our favor. When we start to have a daily that is still bullish, but a 4-hour that is rather bearish, and for example, a 1-hour that is neutral, or conversely, a 1-hour that is bearish and a 4-hour that is neutral, it's much more delicate. Setups can occur, it's entirely possible, but in general, the signals are much weaker than when all time units go in the same direction. So, in general, we take, we have a more moderate risk, we are much more cautious, we take less risk, and that's how it is. Sometimes, we have signals that are less sure, less certain than others. Well, either we don't take them, okay? Or we take them with much, much lower risk.
Well, we will of course monitor the closing on BTC. As I said, I don't want to settle below 109. If we settle there, we can of course have an excess, it's possible. And set a bottom at the level of 107. However, we have two major levels, 107 and then $100,000. If we lose this level, we would lose this large sideways phase and we would have a resolution of this range downwards. And then we will have to see if we really settle below $100,000. It's the psychological figure, the six figures on BTC that we reached this cycle, and especially we would be in a major re-entry. Below this level, we would have acceptance. For me, it wouldn't be very good for the future. Regarding market sentiment, well, spreads are still negative. Someone actually asked me a question, and we'll do it together. How to install this kind of indicator? I'll quickly remind you, even if I talked about it yesterday or the day before, spreads are the difference between the price of the perpetual contract and the price of the spot contract. It allows us to see if there is much more euphoria on the perpetual contract. In that case, we have a price above zero. Well, this indicator that shows us a value above zero is simply the difference between the two prices. That is to say, we have the price of the perpetual contract above the spot contract. Which means we have FOMO in general because traders are longing much more on perpetual contracts, we have FOMO. And conversely, when we set bottoms, when there is a lack of interest in perpetual contracts, we have the spot price above. So, how to add this kind of chart? And create a new layout. We'll call it test. Okay. How do we do that? Well, simply, we put here, hop, Binance, because we're going to take the spreads on the same exchange. Okay. BTCUSDT.pp. Okay. So here, we take the perpetual contract and we subtract Binance 2. BTCT, and here we take the spot contract. That gives us this. This is the spread. Then, hop, we go here to region, and we can even put, well, which one did I put? It's yes, it's region, but I think I can configure it. I don't remember how I configure it to increase opacity. Maybe here. I think it's here. Okay. Then, you put the colors you want. After that, it's up to you to see. It's up to you to configure. Okay. If you want it in white, you can. Then, you take a horizontal line here. You put a white line, a bit thicker than this. Hop. Okay. Coordinated at the zero level. Okay. And here, you have exactly the same thing as I have. Here, you have the spreads. Okay. Then, you put the color you want. I put purple with blue. If you want to put white, well, it's exactly the same. -51, -294 here, -294. Well, it varies enormously. So, well, this is simply the spreads. Then, depending on your trading plan, you focus more on the short term, on the long term, I don't know, for those who have the free plan, what does it limit you to? In general, it's daily weekly. I don't think you can go below. Okay. Then, you can do the same for Ether, for other assets. I generally only look at BTC and Ether. However, be careful not to have too many indicators. This, well, I can have different indicators, monitor market sentiment, technical analysis. It's good, but be careful not to have this confirmation bias, overconfirmation bias, where some people can't enter positions because they have a setup, they have, for example, three or four rules. Okay? And when these four rules are met, they have a psychological block. Their brain tells them no, look for other confirmations. So they add other indicators, a 5th, a 6th, a 7th. And in fact, they never enter a position. And this is a big psychological bias, which is often a lack of confidence in your trading plan. And until you have stats, until you have a concrete setup that shows you that it's profitable over a large number of trades, you will always have this problem, this confirmation bias. And you really have to work on that. You have to work on it. And how do you do that? By doing something very simple. Try to build a trading plan first. You have your plan. Okay, you say very well, I'll position myself. Okay, will I do short-term, medium-term, long-term? Very well. Do I have a profile where I trade often or not? Will I trade in a range, in a trend? Which asset? Okay, these are all questions to ask yourself. On which session? All day, on sessions, US sessions, on a timeframe, anyway, it doesn't matter. Then it will be, okay, which indicator do I master? And then you start building your plan like this. Okay, risk management, stop loss, SL. Does my profile tell me that I need to set TPs far away, a high reward, a low reward? Will I have a high success rate, a low success rate, and so on? And you build your plan like that. When it's built, you don't touch it. You backtest it on BTC and Ether, the altcoins you have chosen, on at least 50 to 100 trades. You make stats on Excel, you see if your setup holds up, if after 100 trades, you have a setup that is slightly profitable. Okay? If it's very profitable, well, you continue and so on. If it's slightly profitable, very good. Well, that's already good. Is it slightly profitable over 100 trades, but over how long? If it's over a year, 2 years, it's not the same as if it's over 3-4 weeks. Okay. Can you improve something? It could be removing an asset that doesn't perform well, since you have a lot of stats. It could be a day that doesn't perform well, it could be something in your setup that can be corrected, improved. If it's at break-even, you haven't gained anything, lost nothing, again, you can still improve it to make it slightly positive. Now, if it's at a big loss, then you start over. Okay? Either you say what went wrong in this plan, or it's really catastrophic, and you start again from a blank sheet. But all of this is work. You have to go through it. That's how it is, we all go through it. You can take someone's plan. For example, in my courses, I share my strategies, my plans. In general, if you have the same psychology as me, it can work. If, on the other hand, you have a different psychology, you will have to start again from a blank sheet or adapt the plan that I share with you partially because we don't all have the same psychology, we don't all have the same patience, the same vision, and so on. But this is important. And be careful when you add, for example, spreads to your trading decisions or whatever. Be careful that it doesn't become too much, and in the end, you modify your plan because this is a very important point. When you have all your stats, you just need to modify one parameter. It modifies all your stats again, and you will have different stats. That's a fact. Okay? From the moment you modify one thing, your stats are different because you will take more trades, fewer trades, and it will be totally different. No, tested, tested. Yes, it's work, but that's how it is. Well, I've said everything about BTC, I think, that I wanted to say. I didn't have any setups myself today, whether it was reaction setups at the extremities, or even trend-following setups, even though we came back to test the 15-minute tunnel on BTC, I didn't have any setups that executed. Okay, I didn't have my conditions for trend continuation. It wasn't far off, but one or two conditions were missing in some places, especially this morning.
That's it for BTC. Regarding Ether, Ether is plunging again below $4000, still in this sideways phase with a small bearish excess here that we have re-entered. Now we need to see if we will really fill this imbalance 100%. We could go slightly lower, specifically to $3850. If, on the other hand, we start to re-enter this level, okay, it's to go much lower and have a continuation of this bearish trend, either in the medium to long term or short term. So, everything we saw on BTC is pretty much the same for Ether. In the long term, we have this daily tunnel that serves as support, but in the short to medium term, we have the 1-hour, 4-hour, and 15-minute tunnels that are oriented downwards. This is what I was telling you earlier. So, we are in a compression phase, which is always more delicate to trade, as I said. I'm keeping my opinion on Ether: if we settle below $3800 on a weekly close, generally below this level, we would be re-entering. For me, it's to go much lower here. In that case, we could have a target around $3000. As long as we stay above this level, we can be in a kind of range. Okay, to go much higher. We retest this level, we create liquidity above it, and it could be bullish. But invalidation if we fall back below $3800. In that case, we would already be in a deviation and re-entry. We would have another deviation, re-entry, and we would have a high chance, as I said, of going back to test around the middle of the range. Not the most realistic scenario at the moment, but a scenario that is still probable and much more probable than when we were at $4006-$4007. That's why we need to manage, to have an exposure cursor that varies like this according to our convictions and according to what the market is doing. In the shorter term, we can also be in a range here on Ether. After this accumulation phase, we can see an inverse head and shoulders. We break, we retest the neckline a bit, and here we are in a sideways phase. 4-hour is flat, 1-hour is flat, 15-minute is flat. However, we want a reaction at the lower extremity. Otherwise, it's to go, as I said, much lower. BTC and Ether are done.
Regarding the US market, the S&P 500 is recovering rather well. Now, what we need to monitor, because it's arriving where? In its short re-accumulation zone between, I draw my Fibonacci, I take the highest high, the dump we had between 0.58 and 0.786. We are in a typical zone where sellers who put a top here, okay? Who put a top, if they have to defend this level, this is where they will do it. So if we really start to reject, it won't be good, and we could potentially create a larger structure. For now, it's not the most likely scenario since we are back above the moving averages, a W structure. We seem to have buyers pushing. However, we are still in a resistance zone. Here, we see it clearly. Okay, from a price action perspective, it's a level that has long served as support, and now serves as resistance. So, it would be good to re-enter this level to then aim for the ATH. If we reject here, then we need to see if we reject to retest, for example, the neckline of this pattern we had here and break later, why not? If we start to re-enter this level, ah, it might be to go lower. And if we start to reverse our dynamic because we had a violent dump, I told you, we are on a VP, it's often retested, we are in the process of retesting it. Is it for continuation or for an MTP, a bearish structure? Well, we will see. But often when we have a violent dump like this, it's often retested. Okay? It's very rare that we dump, see here, we dump, suddenly, we are a bit in the same scenario, strong drop, we come back to test the neckline, short re-accumulation zone, often afterwards it's to form a larger structure. Okay, it's very rare that we go like this, we have a good structure, and suddenly we break down. On altcoins, on shitcoins, okay, on the S&P 500, very unlikely.
So, I'm going back to the list of altcoins you asked to analyze. I have Pump. So, Pump, where are we? Okay. I'll just take KuCoin. I'll explain if I have more history, but it's true. Perfect. Okay. So, we have re-entered this neckline a bit, which ideally we don't want to see. We have validated an M top which reverses this W structure. So, we are rather in a bearish dynamic. Okay, we are still at a support level. So, it's not a zone where I'll look for shorts. We could be in a good zone to look for longs, but it would be good to have a market that lateralizes a bit, to see some flat moving averages that indicate a decrease in volatility. Okay? See a bit like here where we go back above. Here it's good when we have moving averages that become flat like here, we break upwards, like this, we pull back. Here it's interesting. Here we have a signal that is quite good to head north and simply have an uptrend. But what I'm missing here is, yes. A sideways phase, it's too early to position ourselves. We might be pushing for a bullish divergence, to see. Yes, you see, not yet validated here on the MACD, higher lows than the previous one on the price here, lower lows. So we are pushing for a bullish divergence. This divergence will be validated when we break the middle of the W. We see that our middle is here. Okay? So, generally, as soon as we go back to the W level on the MACD, we will have a signal that says, okay, sellers are weaker. Okay, we have a bullish divergence, a weakening of sellers, and then we can form a W pattern. In general, this is how I work to try to set a bottom. See, this is what we have in 4 hours. I have to switch to 4 hours because the chart is too young. But here it's the same. See? Hop, weakening at this level. Divergence, bullish divergence. And then, we wait for the pattern. We have a small one here that isn't very pretty. Okay? Because we make a lower low, it's not the prettiest. And even here, we came back to the bottom and we left. It's not the best example here. Uh, well, we have this example here. See, this example is good. Hop, here, we are pushing for a bullish divergence. We see it clearly, higher lows than the previous one on the MACD. Which shows us here that we also have a higher low than the previous one. We are pushing again for a bullish divergence. At this level, we can have several bullish divergences. And here, what do we see? A W pattern, a small sideways phase, break, pullback to the neckline. Okay, that's a magnificent entry. This signal is magnificent. We position ourselves on the pullback of the neckline, invalidation on the structure. Then, we can target for a 3R, that's up to each person to decide. Here, we're going back to 0.8 for sure. Okay. Perfect. Okay, here we have a good setup. Typical setup where we have a significant dump, but we are still at a rebound in a V-top that needs to be retested. We take advantage of the weakening of sellers when we have a bullish signal with this reversal pattern to position ourselves to revisit the short re-accumulation zone. It's a setup that works generally. So, what I would expect here, yes, is a small reversal pattern to have a bullish signal because that's not the case currently.
So, Ada, we are still in this sideways phase. It's not the ugliest altcoin. Okay, we've seen cryptos that were a bit more bearish. Here, it remains correct. I think we have flat moving averages. Exactly. Daily is flat, 3-day is flat. It's normal, we've been in a range for a long time. It's been almost a year that we've been lateralizing. Anything that comes back to test the lower extremity is a good zone to look for longs, we see it clearly. And the upper extremity is a good zone to look for shorts or to take profits. We have good amplitude, there's room for performance. We have about a x2 between the lower and upper extremity. So there's room to make. In any case, we really need to hold this level. If we start to lose it, well, we will have a high chance of retesting lower levels, especially this level of 30 cents. And if we break upwards, well, we can come back to our short re-accumulation zone. Especially on Ada, we stopped at this major level, which is generally our neckline for this entire distribution pattern. If we really go back above it, yes, the target is between 0.786 and 0.618. Okay, that will clearly be the target after if we break this level. And then we will have to see if we have continuation W structures. In that case, bullish, high chance of reaching an ATH and continuing. If we start to form an M top, okay, well, we could set a larger long-term top in a resistance zone and potentially correct. In any case, I find that where we are, there's not much to do. Either we wait to come back to test this lower extremity here to look for longs, or we wait to come back to test the upper extremity, but at our current position, it's not the best place. Then there can be setups, in the shorter term, it's possible that we come to test a 1-hour tunnel, a daily pivot, you see a good confluence here to take shorts for trend continuation, but I was mainly talking about the long term.
I'll finish with OG. So, hop. Can I get a better chart? Okay, it's quite clean. OG fan token. Okay, I don't know it at all. Football token, maybe. Yes, it doesn't ring a bell too much. We have almost the entire supply in circulation. So that's quite good. Okay, we've had quite a few unlocks, it shows in the evolution of the market cap. We remain at a fairly low market cap, 381 according to CoinMarketCap, and we have a chart that's not bad. Okay, we see our range very well drawn here. We've been ping-ponging for a long time from 2021 until now with good amplitude. We're at x6. This chart is really magnificent. Here we have a textbook case, a magnificent range. Okay. A lower extremity and an upper extremity that are very simple to draw. We have the middle of the range, which is generally around here, hop, which has often served as resistance or support. And here, we are breaking out of this range upwards. A chart that is very bullish. We put moving averages, we have moving averages oriented upwards. A daily tunnel that was very flat, very thin given the lateralization, which is starting to break well, or rather to orient itself well upwards. Well, here we are doing quite well. Honestly, it's a very interesting chart. There are two ways to position yourself on this kind of chart. Either at the lower extremity for a buyer, for a seller, at the upper extremity, or we wait for a break and a pullback. The break and pullback, we have it at this level. Now, it's a bit complicated to position ourselves. We've already started well. If we wait for a pullback, if we do trend continuation, we can add some Fibonacci extensions. To see. We made a wick high here. If I really have to put a real extension as I learned it, I take the wick here and the lowest point at this level. Hop. And I put Fibonacci extensions, which gives us a target between 100% extension and 118%. So, it's the range extension, we take the extremity and we project it to the breakout level, and the objective is to reach this level. After that, we have to break the highest point. For now, we haven't broken it. We've just wickered. Then, we can take intermediate targets. Hop, I take this level. That gives us the 118, 100% extension. We already have a wick at 118, but I prefer to take this target to be sure. We always take the extremities generally. And here, trend continuation, it's quite good. After all, it's a low market cap crypto, be careful with volume, be careful with spreads. Well, after all, it's listed on Binance. So, that's good. It's not like you're trading on exchanges with very little liquidity. And here, all pullbacks, short and medium-term moving averages, well, there can be opportunities. We have good momentum like this. We see it clearly here. We're starting well. Hop, new bullish phase at 15 minutes. We're bouncing. 3-minute tunnel, which serves as support. No, a good chart for trend continuation.
Okay, I have analyzed the altcoins you asked for. We will review others tomorrow, of course. Don't hesitate to put more in the comments. I wish you a very good evening. Thanks again for the 12,000 subscribers, it really brings pleasure. And I'll see you tomorrow for another video.