Transcription
Hey everyone, and thanks for jumping back into the cryptoverse. Today, we're going to talk about Bitcoin and how we have just tagged the 200-week moving average. If you guys like the content, make sure you subscribe to the channel. Give the video a thumbs up and also check out the sale on Into the Cryptoverse Premium at intothecryptoverse.com. The sale is going to be ending in just about 3 days or so. Let's go ahead and jump in.
So, so Bitcoin has tagged the 200-week moving average. This is, in fact, our date with destiny. And where this essentially came from was simply looking at the charts and saying, "I don't need a narrative to justify anything," but noticing that every time when we get to the end of the mid, the end of the post-halving year, going into the midterm year, we first drop below the 50-week moving average, like you can see every cycle. And then we drop below the 100-week moving average, like you can see every cycle. And then eventually, we go to the 200-week moving average, which you can now see every cycle. It really hasn't been that complicated, right? I mean, this is just what Bitcoin does. It's about every four years or so, Bitcoin has a date with destiny, and destiny is the 200-week moving average.
So then, of course, it raises the question, where does that put us within the context of the low? You can see there have been multiple times in history where the 200-week moving average more or less provided support. Unfortunately, last cycle, it did not. We, we did, in fact, go below it. So because of that, I, I cannot say with a clear conscience that we won't go below it. In fact, we already have on a wick, like we've already gone below it. The 200-week moving average is currently around 61.8K. What's interesting is just how cyclical Bitcoin is being right now because it was actually the week of June 13th in 2022, about mid-June, where Bitcoin went through the 200-week moving average. So, literally 4 years later, to the tee, we tag the 200-week moving average.
My guess is what will happen is that we'll likely see Bitcoin settle low, probably, as I've said before, um, a late night in the middle of June, I guess. And, and that what'll happen after that is you'll see Bitcoin kind of drift back up into July, maybe going into August. If you look back at the last two cycles, you'll see that lows occur in June, and then you get these smaller counter-trend rallies in like the July-August timeframe, often times before the market then sort of falls off and then sets the final market cycle bottom.
Now, I know I have mentioned October as the time for the low, and that is still my base case, but there are, there are ways in which I would change my mind on that. And one of those ways is if we were to just get an outright capitulation. Like, if something like March 2020 were to happen, then I wouldn't sit here and say that you have to wait for October. At that point, I'd probably say you'll have a low in October, but it'll probably be a higher low. I know it doesn't seem like this is a March 2020 type event. Um, I'm not suggesting that it is, but it's one of those things where I, I feel like I have to, I have to be at least aware at any moment that capitulations can happen. And, you know, it, it's not like it's not like it completely doesn't match.
Okay. In fact, one of the main things that we've talked about this year is comparing Bitcoin to 2019. And when you compare Bitcoin to 2019, you can see it's a very similar structure, and how Bitcoin then capitulated into day 260, and we're currently on day 242. So if Bitcoin were to just capitulate outright all the way down to say something really, really low, well below 60K, then I don't know if I would remain a bear. I probably wouldn't at that point. But I also am not yet willing to say that this is what's going to happen because when you look at the year-to-date ROI of Bitcoin in midterm years, if you look at 2026 and compare that to the average of prior midterm years, historically at this point, Bitcoin is down on average. At this point, it's down about, uh, 32% from the from the yearly open. And right now, Bitcoin is currently down about 29 to 30% from the yearly open. So, while it may feel like this time is different, Bitcoin is actually at the same spot it normally is at this point in midterm years, as you can see.
And where it would go if it were to continue the average of prior midterm years is it would go, you know, into the 50K range, right? Not much lower than that. And you can see that it would take until Q4 for it to really get down there if it were to follow the average of prior midterm years. So I am not unsympathetic to the idea of the 200-week moving average providing support if we could hold it for the rest of June. So if Bitcoin holds the 200-week moving average for the rest of June, then you'll likely see some type of counter-trend rally going into early July. But the problem right now is that it's still so early in June that there's plenty of time theoretically to break down below it.
I think there's a decent chance that Bitcoin will likely at least sweep the low from February, kind of like it did back in 2018. There was a low set in February. It was a wick low, and after that low, you can see that Bitcoin did not take out that low until about mid-June. And that's where we essentially are right now, right? Or we're right now in early June, but we're about a week away or so from mid-June. And if we sweep that low, then you could argue that the bear market did, in fact, continue, and that it was a mistake for, you know, people to think that the bear market was over. At this point, we're still above the 200-week moving average. Um, but we still are in that window of weakness for Bitcoin in the month of June. I would expect Bitcoin to set a low in June. I would, that is a, a likely month for a low. But if it's only around 60K plus or minus a few thousand, like let's say it's, you know, somewhere between where the current, where it's already bottomed and maybe like 57K or 58K, then the jury is still going to be out on whether that's actually the low or not because even in 2018, you still had a Q4 capitulation. And in 2022, you still had a Q4 capitulation.
Now, one thing to notice though, is that the capitulations, you know, in Q4 weren't as bad if you kind of plot it out, like, you know, one to the other. So, maybe this one won't be as bad. But I also, you know, can't ignore the fact that we did go below the 200-week moving average last cycle. And so, it is possible that we go below it this cycle. In fact, last cycle, I think we even went below the 300-week moving average. Um, and I honestly don't really fully remember, but I, I think if you put on the 300-week, didn't we go, didn't we go below the 300-week moving average last cycle? Yeah. I mean, last cycle, we actually went slightly below the 300-week moving average, and that's currently trading at around 54K. Note that 54K is really similar to the realized price. So if you go look at, um, uh, the terminal price chart, it also has, uh, the realized price and balance price. The realized price is around, uh, 50. It's just below 54K. So that's actually right around where that 300-week moving average is. And what you'll notice is that in 2022, we fell just shy of that 300-week moving average before then getting a counter-trend rally back up, essentially slightly above the 200-week moving average.
So I think there's still some time left in the current window of weakness where we have to deal with the fact that we might actually go below the 200-week moving average. We might wick below it. We might even get some weekly closes below it. But this is that window of weakness. And I would say in about, you know, in about 3 weeks or so, I would start to look for a sort of a brief window of strength to open up in July. So right now, the week, the sort of that weakness is open. Look for a brief change in July, and then we will have a lot of debates in August, July-August timeframe as to whether we get, you know, another drop into the fourth quarter of of the year.
So hopefully this is useful to you guys, and hopefully, kind of following this date with destiny stuff we've been talking about for the last few months was in fact helpful. I know the crypto markets have been melting down recently, especially the altcoin markets, and I, I hope everyone's doing okay. And I mean, there's obviously a lot more to life than than money. So do remember that if you are experiencing losses right now in the markets. I have experienced a lot of losses in in prior market cycles, and it always really sucks. And then another four years later, I've, you know, I sort of learned from my mistakes and then I was doing much better. So, I, I would say don't give up if you're if you're struggling with some of the investment decisions that you've made. Um, just try to take those and then apply them to the next cycle. And I think you'll be surprised at at maybe how much better things will go. Um, especially if you diversify into a lot of different assets, maybe outside of outside of crypto, because the reality is is the stock market is still at all-time highs. Now, obviously, I think the stock market will likely get a correction. Often times Bitcoin will lead those corrections. But, you know, the reality is is if you were in say, index funds in the stock market, then, you know, the pain wouldn't be nearly as bad, even if you had a few percent allocated to to the cryptoverse.
So we'll see what happens here in June, and, and we'll see if Bitcoin can hold that 200-week moving average. I would say if, if we're still holding it by the end of June, then I would say, all right, look for a rally off of it in July. But for now, there is still a window of weakness open. I would say for at least the next couple of weeks or so.
One of the things to consider is that the Bank of Japan may be raising rates, um, in about mid-June. The Fed meeting is, you know, June 17th. We also have a Bank of Japan meeting right around that time. And if you look at, you know, some of the prior capitulations that we had, this capitulation right here that Bitcoin had in August was actually like the week after the Bank of Japan raised rates in late July. So perhaps you'll see Bitcoin find a local low sometime around when maybe the Bank of Japan raises interest rates. Uh, that might be what's actually going on right now. Perhaps that's the thing that's that's, you know, partially responsible for this. If you need a narrative, I don't really think you do, but if I had to pick one, I wouldn't pick Sailor selling or anything like that. I'd say, look, the Bank of Japan's likely to raise rates. Historically, crypto doesn't like it because it leads to the unwind of the carry trade. So, consider that. Maybe look for a low for Bitcoin, uh, in June, and then a rally out of it into July, perhaps into August. And then we wrestle with, okay, the reason why Bitcoin might not have a final bottom in June is because often times in the second half of the year, the stock market gets a correction, and it's the stock market dropping that then makes Bitcoin go down and and find its market cycle bottom.
If you guys like the content, make sure you subscribe. Give the video a thumbs up. Thank you guys for tuning in. Check out the sale on ITC Premium, and I'll see you guys next time. Bye.