Transcription
Now that we're above that green line, we're in a potential meltup scenario. The price of oil will follow with a high degree of certainty at least the [music] price of gold, the price of gold, the price of silver, price of copper, base metals, other commodities, um, soft commodities as well. And that's just what happens in a gold [music] bull era. As long as we don't start to break down below this little red circle, then the road map remains the same. The road map remains just like it was back in in the 1970s here with a breakout and the move upwards with gold outperforming the stock market.
Okay, ladies and gentlemen. So today we have Kevin Wsworth of Northstar Bat Charts back on the show and today we will cover a whole range of different topics. We will look at energy of course with the US Iran deal being finalized now. We will look at precious metals, commodities, stock market, cryptocurrency and many other very interesting topics. So Kevin, thank you so much for being here.
>> Yeah, thanks for having me back on again Vladislav. Yes, as you said, there's quite a lot been going on since we last spoke. So, it's a good time to to take a look at those charts again. Um, if you like, I can start with uh start with the oil chart and uh and take it from there.
>> Yeah, that would be great, Kevin.
>> Okay, sure. Well, the oil chart itself, I think um those of you who sort of watched me speaking last time will remember this oil chart that we've shared before. And uh what it shows is a technical breakout for the price of oil back in 2021 when it broke through this um fairly clear resistance level and went up towards and in excess of $100, up to over $120 briefly in fact. And then from 2022 until very recently, the price of oil was compressing in a um typically bullish wedge pattern on top of that former resistance level. It was then acting as support. So we could track this classical chart pattern in the knowledge that if and when it breaks out another move to that sort of price level $100 plus was was was taking place. Now, you know, we saw this little green candle breaking out back in February, I think it was, [clears throat] and we very quickly told everybody who was listening that the price of oil was on the move and was likely to um spike much higher. Now, the chart doesn't tell you why that's going to happen. It has nothing to do with the narratives. It's the market telling us that the market participants are expecting, if you want to put it that way, or anticipating an upward spike in the price of oil. And these chart patterns build out in a way that is able to tell us that that's likely to happen. Not that it is going to happen, but that it's it's likely to happen. These chart analysis techniques don't ever tell you what is going to happen. They tell you what's most likely to happen. and uh and that allows us to to take advantage of of those probabilities. So anyway, the price of oil did indeed continue upwards very rapidly and in the space of uh just a few weeks topped out at um somewhere in the region of $120, that kind of area, fraction I think it was a fraction below $120 if my memory serves me about $119 or so. Um, but uh regardless it it didn't stay there very long and it began to drop again. Now, we've got this large orange sort of box on the chart here where the you know what we're saying is that we expect the price of oil to consolidate, pull back and correct for quite a period of time. You know, it could could be several months, it could be could be a year or two. Um, we again this this is something the chart doesn't tell us uh with any degree of certainty. It just tells us the type of price action that is now taking place. And it's not it's now not until we break through this initial target zone, which we believe the price of oil will do in the years ahead, let's say, in a in a sort of one to threeyear time frame. And the reason that we think it's likely to do that is because we believe we're in a gold bull era where gold outperforms the stock markets over a multi-year time frame. And I'll talk about that in more detail in in a moment. And obviously the stock market is doing rather well at the moment, but we can take a look at some charts that that show us why we believe that we're in a in a precious metals bull era. And if that's the case, if we're right about that, then the price of oil will follow with a high degree of certainty at least the price of gold, the price of silver, the price of copper, base metals, other commodities, um soft commodities as well. And that's just what happens in a gold bull era. All those things that I just mentioned and energy as well. The energy stocks uh move upwards in a multi-year uh bull era. If we look in more detail at oil and we're not at the end of the the week yet. If I put it on the weekly time frame, um a weekly close below that support line will give us further evidence. But on the daily chart there, if I just put the candles on so that we can see the daily candles, if we get a a close today below um the sort of 80 $8.5 area, then it seems likely that the price of oil is going to continue down a little further. Um, and we could see the price of oil coming down to a sort of level that's approximately I suppose around about the high 60s, high 60s, low 70s. That kind of area is where you're likely to find the next sort of major support. There is some support here in the region of $78 or so. You can see previous highs on the chart here at this kind of level 78 $79. So, we are likely to see a little bit of a pause here at least. We may uh rebound and stay within that channel and within within that pattern. And if we do, then it's it's likely that we get a bounce back into into the 90s here. But I think there's a lot of ifs, buts, may ultimately the price of oil isn't really going to do anything dramatic again until we break out above this green resistance line that we see at the top, which is around about $104. So, you know, we're not going to see those $250, $300 oil prices without breaking that resistance level there. So all we need to do at the moment is have it in our mind that yes, the price of oil has spiked, but we're now in a a period of consolidation, correction, call it whatever you want to. And we can't um become bullish again on oil or can't become strongly bullish on oil again until or unless we break through that clear resistance area, that resistance line, that resistance zone at the top there. Um, and and when that happens, then clearly something much more dramatic is taking place. Now, I know a lot of people watching this will be thinking, well, that's just not going to happen. It can't happen. It won't happen. There's no fundamentals to support that happening. Well, that's okay. If that's if it doesn't happen, that's fine. That's, you know, that fits in with the technical analysis because what I've just said is that we don't need to even think about much higher oil prices being sustained until or unless we break out above that level. So this is where technical charts remove any bias. You know, I've already said that I think on the balance of probability, oil is going to move considerably higher, but that's not going to affect my portfolio. It's not going to affect the way I act because I'm not going to I'm not going to act further on that until or unless we break out. And that's the way you use the technical charts to uh protect your to protect your your nav to protect your capital.
>> Yes.
>> Talking about Yeah. Sorry.
>> Go ahead, Kevin. Go ahead.
>> No, no, it's all right. I was I was going to move on to u on to precious metals there, but if you've got a question, that's fine.
>> Uh so I was going to ask you about um the general stock market, Kevin, if possible. So you know, with the run, so I'm very much aware that you don't really look at the narratives, but you know, stock markets continuously go higher. Um some of those stocks from the fundamental re perspective look very very overvalued. Do we are we seeing any indications that stock market could top or do you see the trend still going higher for longer?
>> Again, we can answer that question by um in a in an unbiased fashion removing any need for um any any kind of narrative just by simply looking at the technical chart price levels because it's not just me looking at these technical chart price levels. Of course, it's the traders, it's the hedge fund managers, it's the algorithms that um buy and sell uh these shares. So, if we can identify where these important levels are, then it gives us a heads up as to what is likely to to happen next. Now, this is the S&P 500 chart, and it's got some levels on here that I have had on this chart for quite a long period of time now, and it's been keeping us um on the right side of the price action for for quite a period of time now because you can see that we broke down here. And when we broke down below this orange line, I said that there was a quite a high probability that the S&P 500 was going to drop all the way down to this red these red lines here, this red support zone, and that we didn't need to panic until or unless price moved below them and started to follow this red arrow. In the event the S&P 500 reversed and gave us a clear uh support line there, that black support line. This is the situation where a chart pattern begins to develop in front of your eyes and this expanding wedge pattern, it's a quite a volatile um technical chart pattern because as price moves further through that expanding wedge, then the price by its very nature becomes more volatile. The swings become larger because price isn't compressed anymore. Now, when we reached the upper line, the green line there, I was able to say straight away to to our website members and to I think I posted it on on social media as well, saying that now that we're above that green line, we're in a potential meltup scenario because this r I mean, this rising wedge overall goes all the way back to 2021, the red support zone and the sort of orange sort of support line, support uh sorry, resistance line or resistance area. And in fact, if you follow that line further back, it goes even further back in time. But point here is that we're breaking to the upside from a rising um contracting wedge pattern, which what that means is that the price was being compressed as it got closer and closer towards the top of that wedge. And instead of breaking to the downside, as as these sort of wedges very often do, when you get an upside break, it sends the opposite kind of signal. The message it's sending is that you're in a strong um trending bull market that is more likely to take the price upwards significantly than than than anything else. And so we observe the price action breaking out. We set our uh stop loss if we're trading it. We set our profit limit, the entry point after the price has broken out. And that's if you want to trade it. This is this is how you trade it on a shorter term time frame. You know, the measured move, these black arrows, uh, the measured move would take you to somewhere around about 9,000. So, you set your profit limit somewhere a little bit below that, just to be cautious, around 8,700. Um, and you got yourself a nice sort of 3:1 reward to risk um trade by doing that. So, that's that's, you know, that's how you would set up a trading position. If you're if you're in this as an long-term investor, then you know you get your your investing signals on a higher time frame, a monthly chart for example, and you would have got the signal much much lower down and you'd be holding the S&P 500 over a much longer period of time to earn you a steady return over a much longer time frame. So that's, you know, that's the difference between trading investing. But if I just put this candle chart on for a moment instead of the line chart and I zoom in, you can see something that gave me even more confidence that this was likely to move quite strongly to the upside and that was this beautiful back test. I didn't touch that green line. I haven't moved it for weeks and weeks and weeks now. And sure enough, the price came back and tested this green line to to perfection. P the price sort of it was seeking out some support and it hit that what was a resistance line. It's now support and very rapidly reacted above it and you know almost as if it was touching something that was redot and it went you know it jumped when it hit it. So being able to understand these signals on the chart, you know, it's not some kind of voodoo. What we're looking at is how the market participants reacted. How did the market participants react when the price came down to 7,2 whatever it was 237? Well, they reacted by buying heavily. So that tells you that the mood of the market, the view of the market participants, the ones that move it the most, not just the small-time investors like perhaps you and me, but you know the big hedge fund managers that I was talking about, they are in the mood to buy heavily at the moment and they bought that back test very heavily and the prices there's actually a gap there on the chart and it's gapping to the upside of the loan. So, we're in a, you know, what I would sort of um characterize as a as a sort of a meltup scenario where the price can move up very strongly in a very short period of time, relatively speaking. And in fact, as you can see, we've been doing that ever since February, March of well, March of this year. Price has been moving up very rapidly. Um, now I don't know where it's going to stop. Um, you know, the first measured move target is around about 9,000. Maybe it ends up petering out up there. Maybe the bubble bursts and it all comes crashing down at that point. But the point I'm watching here and the point that I mentioned before is the capital rotation. It's the it's the fact that gold is outperforming the stock market in a um measurable way. Now this is the gold to S&P chart. Just get rid of these at the side there. This is the gold to S&P chart. It's a ratio chart and it tracks capital rotation events. In fact, if I go all the way back to the 1970s, you can see the ro rotation that took place on this ratio chart as the chart began to move up and gold outperformed the stock market for over 10 years from the sort of mid to late 1960s all the way through to 1980. And the chart going up is a, you know, it's telling you that gold is outperforming the stock market. And then we had a rotation in the opposite direction in 1980 and precious metals fell as the stock market rapidly began to outperform gold. So the ratio dropped and then the opposite thing happened in the in the early 2000s. Gold began to outperform the stock market and up it went. And then you had another rotation in 2011 1213 as the chart broke down and moved back below the moving average. That's the green line. Back below the green and red spld you see on the screen there which is called the Ichimoku cloud. Bull markets for gold occur when the charts above those and bare markets for gold occur when the chart is below those things below the moving average below the Ichimoku cloud once it's broken down. So what's happening now or what has happened now is that we've broken out above the moving average above the Ichimoku cloud and we've hit a resistance line that goes all the way back to 1980 1980 2011 and um 2026. Those are the three touch points on that resistance line now. So we now know where that resistance line is. We know it's important because the [clears throat] price the ratio reacted to it. And we're going to have to wait for the end of the month here actually to see if at the end of the month we close above or below this red line because this red line's another important support and resistance line. Um, it's in this in this region here just about where we are at the moment on the ratio. So either we close the month just above that uh little red line there, that one that goes back to 2015, we close above it, then the chances are that we're going to bounce around in this yellow shaded box as gold and the S&P tussle for dominance. Um, if we close below it, then I suspect we're going to come down uh somewhere to this region on the ratio, which means gold continues to underperform the S&P probably for another um let's say it could be several months there, couldn't it? Could be into the early part of next year if it drops rapidly. Um, it could be Q3, Q4 of this year or into the early part of next year. Uh, and that would be the S&P continuing to melt up significantly for for several more months um and outperforming gold. But because we're above the HMO cloud, because we're above the moving average there, as long as we don't start to break down below this little red circle, then the road map remains the same. The road map remains just like it was back in in the 1970s here with a breakout and the move upwards with gold outperforming the stock market. So that's the capital rotation process that's taking place at the moment. Um, and the capital rotation event stock market breaking down uh would be likely to happen once we start getting this ratio up to these sort of levels above that that declining red line there. Once the ratio gets to about 0.70.71 that I suspect would be as a result of the stock market suffering some very significant weakness and there are some underlying concerns with with the stock market as you know um probably and many people watching this will know I mean that you know if you look at metrics like the S&P versus M2 money supply and all that all that type of stuff there's there's reasons to have some you know some background concerns for the stock market and to to there are reasons to think that maybe we are closer to the end of this particular bull era for stock markets than than the beginning. So there's there's a lot to play for over the next over the next few months. It's going to be important that investors keep on top of these kind of ratio charts because you'll see the the bad stuff happening on a ratio chart before it really becomes obvious on the price chart for the S&P I suspect. And of course with the S&P also other risk assets, things like cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin here, um are somewhat dependent. Although of course having said that, the stock market's doing okay at the moment. And uh for many months now, cryptocurrencies haven't been doing okay. Bitcoin's down something like 50% or so and is showing no signs of recovery at the moment. Um, so you can see the labels on this chart. You can read them for yourself. You know, we're not really anywhere near being able to declare the crypto bare market over yet. I would say we need to see Bitcoin getting above about 90,000 um before we start thinking that this may be over and we could be moving into the next uh bullish phase for cryptocurrencies. There's a lot more to talk about with with with cryptos and how they might react in a uh in a capital rotation event as well. There's some interesting possibilities for cryptocurrencies uh as a result of capital rotation. Uh, just [clears throat] moving on, if you if you want me to keep on talking, I can keep this up forever if you if you want, but we've got the we've got the dollar index here. Um, and this is another piece of evidence. You know, people who follow me will know that I use something called a scientific weight of evidence approach because, you know, when the price of a chart or a line on the chart just crosses, if the chart crosses a particular line, it doesn't really mean very much. You need weight of evidence. So, you know, if if you're if you're trying to sort of diagnose something, you you don't just look at one piece of evidence. You need lots of pieces of evidence to make a correct diagnosis. And the same thing is, you know, true with gold and silver. If um if the US [clears throat] dollar index is going to start moving up rapidly and you know if it breaks through this yellow circle then you know it's probable that dollar index will move up quite rapidly then that would be a piece of evidence to suggest and support the idea that the gold and silver correction will continue. Now, if the US dollar index were to get rejected here and start moving down, then that would be a piece of evidence that might start to suggest that gold and silver probably aren't going to fall much further and that the correction is is quite close to ending. So, we're keeping a close eye on the US dollar index. And in in the same vein, we're keeping a very close eye on the gold silver ratio. This is the gold silver ratio here. [clears throat and cough] And when the chart is going up, gold is outperforming silver. And that tends to happen um during corrections. During corrective phases, gold will outperform silver. It holds its value better than silver in a correction. And when gold and silver are doing particularly well, the ratio begins to drop. And it can drop very rapidly, as it did back here in late 2025 into the early part of 2026. And and when the ratio falls rapidly, it means that silver is outperforming gold. Well, silver outperforms gold in, you know, in bullish periods. When when the metals are going up and doing particularly well, silver will start to outperform gold and that's that's when the ratio drops. So at the moment [clears throat and cough] talking about weight of evidence the the weight of evidence will swing strongly towards the correction continuing if this ratio breaks above these two green lines. If the gold silver ratio breaks above those those two green lines I'm just going to put a little little circle on the chart here. If we break through there, [clears throat] then what that's telling me is that there's a another piece of evidence to suggest that uh the gold and silver correction is is likely to continue. Conversely, if we start to break down here and let's say we break below this black line that I'm just putting on the chart now. If we break down below that black line and start to drop, then that suggests to me that silver's likely to continue to outperform gold for a while. So the correction is likely to be um at least halted and then at some point if we break below that lower red line then the ratio is likely to drop much further and that would be happening uh alongside a significant um move upwards for the precious metals. And I think we can probably start to draw another support line on here as well. Although it's only got two two touches on it so far. Um, that second black line that I've just drawn. If the ratio starts to fall below that, it starts to fall below this black line here, then that's another important support line that would suggest the ratio is likely to drop further and therefore gold and silver silver are likely to do well. So the whole point about technical analysis is it shows you the places or the time when you can uh place your bets if you want to put it that way. You know, it's like a roulette wheel. You don't place your bets until you get the evidence because the chips can fall either way. Uh, but once you cross one of these sort of um zones or lines on the chart if there's weight of evidence to support it from other analysis so let's say let's say this chart breaks to the upside and the US dollar index is also going up and we've got other evidence on top of that as well then we can say with a high degree of confidence that the precious metals correction is going to deepen and we're nowhere near done yet and we could see silver fall into not just sort of through the 60s but into the 50s. Um, and and that would be the case if we break through this through this circle. So it's all about weight of evidence and in fact just looking at the stock RSI on the bottom here the the indicator at the bottom it is perhaps starting to show some signs of of wanting to turn upwards again. We're on the daily time frame there. So we can switch to the 12-hour time frame and that gives more detail there. You see on the 12-hour time frame, the stock RSI has already crossed over and it's starting to move up. So, we'll keep tracking this on multiple time frames for our for our website members there to give them, you know, a very early heads up as to when this if and when this ratio breaks out and it would likely present a buying opportunity. And and I get asked a lot um Bradlav about this. You know, people will say to me, "Well, when do I buy my gold and silver then?" And I keep saying this, you'll probably you're probably bored of hearing it, but I'm going to say it again anyway. The answer to that depends on whether you're a trader, an investor, or a stacker. If you're a trader on small time frames, you know, you want to be in and out in the space of a I don't know, a few days or a few weeks, then you trade. And if you imagine this is a price chart for the price of silver, I know it's not, but if it was, you would trade by setting your entry point on the breakout, your stop loss below that swing low, and your profit limit wherever you think it's going to move up to. You know, you use different techniques to calculate where the chart's likely to move up to. And it's not really worth a trade, you know, I don't think it's really worth a trade until you can get a 3:1 reward to risk. So, if this was a price chart of silver, you'd want to see it moving up here somewhere so that your your reward risk ratio is 3:1. I know it says risk to reward there. It should really say reward to risk because three is your reward and uh one is your is your risk. You you win three if it reaches the target and you lose one if it if it hits your stop loss. So, if you're if you're even having to ask the question, where should I be buying? What price should I be buying my silver and gold at? It means it means you're not doing it properly. You know, if you're if you're tra if you're a trader, you don't need to ask that question because you you do exactly what I've just done there. You you you know, you set your profit limit, you set your stop loss, and there's no question to be answered. You just you stay in that trade until it either hits the profit limit and you get your profits, or it hits your stop-loss and you get out without losing too much. You know, it protects your nav. So that's if you're trading, if you're investing, then the entry point for gold and silver was quite some time ago. You know, we gave a an entry point for gold at $1,823, I think it was, and silver at $23. You know, that we were strongly advising to anybody that would listen, you know, to to buy gold even when it was down at $13, $1,400 and and silver was, you know, way below $20. Those were the long-term entry points if you're a long-term investor. And if you're a stacker, if you're a true stacker, you don't care what the price is. You're not going to sell anyway. You just keep adding to your stack at the end of every month when you get your your wages or whatever. You just buy more ounces of gold, more ounces of silver because you're not interested in fiat. You're not interested in dollars and pounds and euros. You're interested in ounces and you don't care what the convertability is between gold and silver and fiat currencies because you're stacking the ounces. So true stackers don't even look at the price. So as I said if you're you know if someone's asking me know when should I buy silver the very first question you need to answer is are you a trader an investor or a stacker and then once you've answered that question you will know automatically where where you should be buying and and one thing I haven't covered there is that okay let's assume you didn't take a position in gold at $1800 and you didn't take a position in silver at at $20. If you didn't and you're wanting to take a new position or you're wanting to add to a position that you already have, then my answer would be this. Silver went to $121 and it fell 50%. So, in terms of price, in terms of price, taking a position in the 60s or lower is highly likely to turn out to be a good thing to do. So as long as you're aware that another element to this is time. Okay, time you got two elements to take to consider price and time. So the 50% drop in silver, we'll talk just talk about silver for now is is you know it doesn't take a genius to be able to say that it's likely that the larger part of the drop has already taken place. We've fallen 50%. So therefore in terms of price you know establishing a position now is is is likely [clears throat] to be good because your downside even in extreme case let's say downside is $40. Okay. So, you enter at 60 or 65 or even where we are now. 60 what is it? 608 or something I think. Um or 70 you know you you enter now and the downside is another $20 20 or $30 but the upside is whatund you know $100 plus or in my view the upside is probably a couple hundred. My personal target for for silver is in excess of $200 $250 over the next three to five years. So in terms of long-term reward and risk, you know, taking positions in silver in the 60s or the 50s is is good. But in terms of timing, you know, it might take many more months for the price to really bottom out and start to move up aggressively again. We had such a big spike in gold and silver that there's a quite a high probability that it's going to take quite a long time, probably longer than a lot of people expect for this to really fully resolve. I mean, great if it suddenly does a V-shaped recovery and goes up to $200, $250 by the end of the summer, then whoopdedoo. I'm happy. But but I I somehow think that that's quite unlikely. Um, it's my my personal view anyway, but that that's how I would approach it. That's how that's how I would kind of frame it at the moment.
>> Yeah, thank you so much for sharing that, Kevin. If we could look at some of the other commodities like copper and uranium if possible.
>> Yeah, sure. Okay, let me find a copper chart for you. Um, whilst we're going past it, I'll quickly show you palladium as well because pe not palladium platinum because people very often mention uh platinum and uh platinum is also correcting strongly just as it did um back in uh the early 2000s. Um, so platinum did a big correction back then. Um, and we're in the midst of another one now. If the price of platinum ever gets anywhere near 12 or $1,300, then that would be um highly likely to be a very good um point at which to get another chance to um to establish positions. But one thing we can follow with platinum is the platinum to gold ratio. And as always, we we mention these ratio charts all the time because if if platinum isn't outperforming gold, then um there's no point really holding platinum. And as this chart's just gone down and down and down and down over the years, it means platinum has been underperforming gold. It's only if we break through the um the cluster of evidence here. And I do need to put on the uh the 4-year moving average for this chart to make much sense because I see it's got a label on it that says four-year moving average. So, I'll just quickly put that on the chart for you. Um, if the if the ratio of platinum to gold moves through the red resistance line, the green 4-year moving average, the black resistance line, and the Ichimoku cloud there, that's what we call a cluster of evidence. If it was to move through those, that would be very, very strong evidence that platinum is going to outperform gold in the years ahead. As things stand at the moment, that hasn't happened. So we see no immediate rush to um to to hold platinum. Copper you mentioned well copper's doing fine at the moment. Copper's somewhat sort of um detached a little bit from silver just recently in some sense because it's it's very strongly outperforming uh silver. Silver's been in a much deeper correction than than copper has. And we've got the copper chart here with a couple of potential um measured moves. And when I say a measured move, what I mean is you can measure for example the depth of that cup and then when the cup breaks out and price breaks out from the top of that cup, then one measured move would be that orange arrow replicating the move down into the cup that is very then very often followed by a move of similar proportions to the upside. But without being as greedy as that, you could simply measure the breakout from this um decline that took place when we broke out back in 2020 and the price moved up to nearly $5. That red arrow um on the breakout that's just taken place from this rising wedge pattern. That gives you a a smaller measured move that takes us to about $8. So, as we began to break out in the $5 area, um we suggested a potential trade with a profit limit of $8 and a a stop loss down here uh around about three. Well, we've got $3.99 there. So, copper is is continuing to to do well. And, you know, if you want a narrative, you know, talk about reconstruction in the Middle East or something. I don't don't really care what narrative you put on it. Um, or or whatever industrial demand there there happens to be for copper in wherever in the world. You know, you can attach whatever narrative you want, but the chart already gives you all the narrative you need because the um the market participants, the overall view of the market participants driving the price of copper was that um it should break out or that it did break out from that rising wedge pattern and it even did a little bit of a back test there on that red candle. So again, it's the it's the aggregate view of the market telling us that the probabilities are stacked in favor of the price of copper moving up at least to the to the $8 area. So and and longer term, you know, when you zoom out, copper and silver move together. So, if copper is, you know, unless it does it very quickly and hits that $8 target in the next few weeks, um, you know, then that, you know, then silver can still sort of languish around the price levels where it is now, that's fine. But on on a longerterm basis, copper, silver, gold, oil, they all they all move together. If you to overlay the the charts on top of each other, they they all um they all move together. Um, copper. Did you mention something else there for other stuff as well?
>> Uranium. Uranium.
>> Uranium. That was it. Uh, so the spot price of uranium has been consolidating for quite a long time now. Um, we broke out and completed this cup pattern, this arc pattern. We hit the arc target. And then, you know, similar to the look, you'll pick up textbooks and textbooks will say a cup and handle has to look like this. The cup has to be these proportions and the handle has to be these proportions and you know that's that's the way it is. Well, cobblers to that as far as I'm concerned because that cup and handle pattern um looks very different, doesn't it? You've got the cup very clear cup geometric arc pattern with a rising wedge handle which is totally unconventional and you won't find it in any textbook. And the same thing can be said for uranium. That handle isn't likely to conform to anything that you'll you'll find in any of the textbooks. But if you try and just be a little bit more um open-minded about it and give the chart room to breathe, the way to think of it is this. You know, you've got the cut pattern, you've hit the target, there's a whole variety of things that can happen now. But all of those things that can happen are going to they all involve a new chart pattern building out in this region that is going to signal what what happens next. If you know, if the price just continues upwards as it sometimes does, for example, with or has done in the past with cryptocurrencies, then you just stay in the you stay in the position. And you stay because you're above the moving averages and all the rest of it, there's no reason particularly to exit unless you were playing a trade. If you if you hit the profit limit on your trade, then you exit. It doesn't matter what the price does next. But if you're a longerterm investor, you stay in the trade. Even if this thing is, you know, having some sort of consolidation up here in the top right hand corner of the arc, you know, as long as you don't fall below your critical levels, whatever your critical levels are that you've preset, then then you can stay in the stay in the trade. But the uranium spot price is is remaining, I would say, bullish. It hasn't uh plunged. It hasn't broken down below the moving average. Hasn't started to move below the Ichimoku cloud there, that green splodge. Because if it was below the the cloud and the cloud turns red, then you're in a bare market. But that's not the case. It's still above the cloud and as the the red arrow probably gives, you know, gives it away a bit. My expectation is that it'll break to the upside, but I'm not going to allow that to to cloud my judgment. The um the miners, which is probably how most people are playing this. Um the globes, for example, the Globe X uranium miner ETF or it could be URJ um the spot uranium miners. You know, there's a whole range of different ways of playing the uranium miners as well as the individual miners. But the the ETFs have this sort of a look to them. Break out back in the sort of 20 2020 2021 period. Big move up, consolidation, another move up, consolidation, another move up, and now we're consolidating and correcting again. The the uranium bull era, I think, has a very long way to go. I I don't know how far, but I I believe that this is highly likely to be a correction on route to higher values for the uranium miners. But again by using ratio charts we can avoid getting trapped. And what do I mean by avoid getting trapped? Well this ratio charts the ratio of uranium miners versus gold. And just ask yourself a simple question. You know, is there any point holding a basket of uranium miners if they're not outperforming gold? Well, the answer is no. Just hold gold. You know, it's much simpler to do. Um, you can hold gold physically or you can hold it um remotely and electronically and dig digitally these days in just the same way you can hold anything else. Uh, you know, stocks and shares um in a in a remote fashion. So, you can, you know, if if uranium miners aren't outperforming gold, hold gold. And for the time being, they're not outperforming gold, are they? You can see this this ratio chart. The ratio has gone sideways even down a little bit over the last uh three four years. And we've pre-identified the point at which we want to be in the uranium miners. This is where you go you can go bonkers and load up on the uranium miners. When that ratio chart, or perhaps I should say if that ratio chart breaks through that red resistance line and through the horizontal resistance zone, that would be the chart signaling to us that that green arrow is much more likely to play out and that the Iranian miners would then be outperforming gold by 450%. From from the breakout. So we know in advance, we know when we want to hold the uranium miners. I mean, there are one or two uranium miners like Kamico that have done incredibly well and you know, we're up hundreds of percent on Chemico because it's just led the market. It's the biggest one of the lot and it it kind of, you know, it's been doing great. But aside from that and one or two others, the majority of the uranium miners have just been kind of not doing very much priced in gold over over many years. And in fact, if you look at that stock RSI indicator at the bottom there, it doesn't look particularly encouraging at the moment. So, we could see the ratio coming all the way back down here again before it breaks to the upside. So, patience is is a virtue, but if you've got these ratio charts, um you kind of you don't have to guess. You don't have to be kind of just um estimating when the time is to get into uranium miners. You can use the technical chart evidence to to tell you um precisely when you should be um getting. I mean look there for example when the ratio broke above that red line and we got this breakout taking place it told us back in 2021 that the uranium miners were going to strongly outperform gold um and they did until we hit that resistance level. So using these these ratio charts it's um you know if you've not come across ratio charts before you know you might find it a bit I don't know a bit kind of uh weird but trust me it does it does help.
>> Yes thank you so much for that Kevin. Um so we covered a lot. Would there be any other assets or absolutely any other topics that you would like to cover that you believe would be interesting or important?
>> Um well eventually [clears throat] these soft commodities are going to do very well but in a lot of cases the soft commodities have charts that are quite difficult to to trade. They're kind of quite volatile and quite quite messy. But um, you know, the energy sector and the base metal sector um are the ones that are doing very well at the moment. Um, I'm just looking through my list of um charts here just see if anything jumps out at me. A chart to to be aware of is the 10-year yield chart, of course, for um US government bonds, because that's another important chart for uh long-term um markets, whether it's stock markets, whether it's um gold and silver. You know, you can look back at the 1970s here, late 60s, early 1970s, and we saw the um the 10-year yield going up um strongly over a multi-year time frame. And and as that happened, gold and silver and energy and oil all went completely crazy. Um, and that's quite analogous to what's happening at the moment. If this particular pattern, this consolidation pattern breaks to the upside, then there are very strong echoes of the 1970s in that um and that would probably go hand in hand with well rising bond deals would go hand in hand with inflationary pressures and um and as I say um rising valuations for gold and silver and the types of things that do well when gold and silver go up. So that's just something to keep an eye on. It's another piece of evidence. Uh, but in terms of the actual charts themselves, it's um you know, precious metals, oil, um that I'm I'm keeping a very close eye on the the energy stocks, uh, uranium, of course. Um, you know, in the stock market, we've got some very strong moves in the tax sector and semiconductors and that kind of thing, but they've been moving strongly for quite a long long time now. So, if you weren't already in them, I would have thought that now might be a little bit a bit of a risky time to be taking initial positions in um in fastmoving um tech stocks. Having said that, that you know, there's a range of tech stocks that are not outperforming gold and they're actually in a in a bare market versus gold still. So, it's a mixed picture and that, you know, it's it's a relatively small number of tech stocks um that are strongly outperforming gold. It's almost as though we're getting a shrinking shrinking pool of you know very strongly performing course SpaceX as well which has just launched and the price you know the share price of SpaceX going to the moon quite literally. So we're we're keeping a close eye on all of that for signs of weakness and signs of a problem. Um, yeah, that's it. I think by I think that's probably a pretty good summary of where we're at.
>> Yes. So again Kevin thank you so much for that. If people would like to follow your work, where could they find you?
>> Yeah, you can find me uh at Northstar Charts onx and you can also find me um on on our website uh which is northstarbadcharts.com and um if you've been watching watching us here and you drop us a a DM or an email northstarbadcharts@gmail.com, we might be able to dig out a um a discount code for you.
>> Yes, I will have the links in the description below. And as I've said before, I have been using this service for many years now. I think it's almost five years and I highly highly recommend it. So Kevin, like always, I really enjoyed the conversation and thank you so much for your time.
>> Thank you Rad. Catch you next time.