Transcription
Over 100,000 students from China are no longer at U.S. colleges. And this trend is showing no signs of slowing. In 2025, 12.4% fewer Chinese students came to the United States compared to the previous year. These students are a major economic driver in small college towns and large cities across the country. In 2024, Chinese international students had an estimated $14.6 billion economic impact in the United States through tuition and living costs alone. They also greatly added to the science and engineering fields in the U.S., particularly in AI and quantum computing. This cost is difficult to calculate, but if Chinese international students are critical contributors to the U.S. economy and academic institutions, what impact does fewer Chinese international students have for the United States?
We spoke with an expert to find out why fewer Chinese international students are coming to the U.S., and what it means for higher education, research and innovation, and U.S.-China relations. We have to talk about what has happened within China, the domestic environment. What really drives Chinese students to study in the United States? There is a huge, strong desire for American credentials. And that desire has been going down over the past five years. And that desire going down is largely because American credentials, have not really been able to reap the kind of labor market returns in China, as before. So ten years ago, probably for outstanding Chinese students, they still want to choose American University for their top destination. If they can choose. Probably not anymore, because the top Chinese universities have been gaining statue and quality of experience. prominently over the past decade. So the rise of Chinese university, I think, is another very important factor that is behind the decline of Chinese students.
There is [a] lack of motivation to gain, so called, the high quality education experience in the United States. Another factor is the Chinese labor market is not evaluating, American credentials as high, especially for fresh graduates. So in some sectors, for example, for the state owned enterprise or to work for the government, even for local business, there is [a] changed perception to some extent that, getting overseas degree -- so this is not just about American degree -- it's not as valuable as you've had it before. And third factor about the domestic, situation is it’s so expensive to receive, especially undergraduate education in the United States. And most of the Chinese students are paying students. In other words, they do not have financial aid or scholarships. And with the slowdown of Chinese economy and the real estate bubble bursting, the shrinking of Chinese, middle class and upper middle class wealth, all of that really play a role in the declining capacity to afford American higher education.
Besides domestic reasons and China are there factors in the United States that are contributing to fewer Chinese international students coming here to study. What happened in the United States, I think, has been widely reported. Especially during Covid, there is anti-Asian racism, there is this widely perceived chaotic situation in the United States that is not conducive or friendly to Chinese students studying here. These perceived safety concerns like mass shootings, campus safety, crime, all of that, it's all happening before, but now with the rise of social media, Chinese families and even young people themselves have, not firsthand, but they can really view it, you know, live stream. So that is, either actual or perceived lack of, attraction from the American side.
Now, I'd like to broaden it to other countries. The competition from other destinations is fierce. We're talking about Canada, the United Kingdom, Australia, and Singapore. They actively welcome Chinese students. Those countries provide more of a clear post-study work visa. And we know what has happened in United States. We're trying to sort of, undercut those post-study work visa. So it's increasingly unlikely or as perceived by Chinese students to be able to work or transition out of graduation to American labor market. All of that really contributed to Chinese students less likely to study in the United States.
So now that we understand some of the reasons why fewer Chinese international students are coming to the U.S., what impact will this have? Chinese students historically contributed to over $15 billion per year, that's according to Department of Commerce data to the U.S. economy at the peak level and at many U.S. university, especially state universities. Since the financial crisis, the state universities are really struggling with revenue and Chinese students has really make up for that loss of revenue from their state budget. And so I'd like to go beyond this economic loss. I think the loss is not limited to economics, but also really about higher education.
Chinese students, are very important workforce even before they graduate, at [the] graduate student level, doctoral degree level, those students are actually most affected because of the visa policy, right? They're scrutinized about intellectual property, about stealing U.S. technology and so on, so forth. And what is less discussed is they are actually very important workforce. They're teaching assistants, they're research assistants in American scientist labs and they are very important components of U.S. higher education in terms of research productivity and teaching excellence, in terms of foreign talent. This is not just about Chinese students. This is all international students from India, from Europe, from Australia, from the rest of the world. We all said that we should invest in U.S. Stem education, the domestic talent, I agree with that. But we have been doing that over the past few decades. This is the structural issue with the U.S domestic education system. The U.S. domestic education system has not been able to produce enough STEM talent for the graduate programs. So the graduate programs depend on, heavily, the international talent. iI some engineering fields, 40% to 70% of PhD students are international. Not because they crowd out domestic students, but because, even in social science, we don't really have enough American applicants.
Since the U.S. education system doesn't produce enough domestic talent for these graduate programs, why should we care that there is declining Chinese international students in them? That decline really creates shortages in research labor, in teaching assistants, and definitely contribute to slower academic output. So I am very concerned about the long term research innovation because this country’s research innovation, there's a vital part coming from higher education in the university. For example, in AI specifically, nearly 25% of top U.S.-AI researchers were born in China. American graduate school have been very effective talent recruitment. You know, we're always talking about how Chinese government [is] engage in talent recruitment, American graduate schools have effectively recruited talent from China, India, and the rest of the world, for many decades. That's really the sources of American innovation. And that source of innovation is in trouble right now.
The other part that I'm concerned [about] is that America is attractive place, that America is a land of opportunity - that perception is really changing and is eroded. And, with the decline of Chinese students coming to the United States, the decline of American students going to China, these very important people-to-people exchanges are also reduced. U.S. and China tensions are going to be here for a while, and to really make sure that tensions stay on the right course and we're able to manage it, we need to have the healthy people-to-people exchange. Because only through those kinds of exchanges people can see and experience with their own eyes and their own experiences, so that they don't have to be affected by politics and narratives and propaganda. So I'm all advocating for people-to-people exchange. I think the student study abroad is just one piece of it.