Transcription
Hello everybody, I'm Cantonese Cat. Everybody, Cantonese Cat here. And I know I said no video for about two or three weeks. I figured I'd just do one quick one here, talking about Tesla, Nvidia.
In terms of what I think about Tesla's chart in isolation, what I think about Nvidia, which is a window to the soul of what the overall stock market might end up doing, and try to compare between the two. Without further ado, this is the Tesla chart. Now, with an amateur drawing, this really does look a little bit more like a cup and handle pattern, doesn't it? Big giant cup over here with a handle. So far, the handle has been extremely brutal, shaking a lot of people out so far, right? But so far, there's really not much besides forming a big giant cup, trying to challenge the previous all-time high. Was not able to break through. Had to cool down and form a handle. And the handle is right smack into a very important previous resistance zone and now flipping to support. Right. Previous resistance zone here and now flipping support. Right. So so far, it's still more or less a classic illustration of a cup and handle pattern.
Now, if I am to look at a chart just by itself, you can see that this does look more bullish, doesn't it? It looks like this is some kind of reaccumulation pattern over here, and it just simply couldn't break through all that far, all that fast. It needed to cool down. And the entire time it was kind of going up, anyway, it was on, you know, a little bit of declining volume, which is a little bit concerning. Sometimes you have price just keep on going up on declining volume. It doesn't matter. Like the entire move all the way since co all the way up top to, you know, from like 23 bucks all the way to like 400 bucks was on declining volume. Sometimes it doesn't matter, but whenever you do have price going up on declining volume, you know, I would not be sus uh surprised if it ends up just having a little bit more reversal, just come back, back as a pretty important previous horizontal resistance zone as support, build up more energy, form a freezer bottom over here before going up, right? All of this looks pretty decent so far, even if you don't, you know, if you're not into technical analysis, if you know the basics, you know the cup and handle pattern, you know the tweezers bottom, these are usually pretty decent bottom here. Just like you have a tweezer top over here. That's a pretty decent top right there, you know. And right now it's just kind of stuck in a range over here. If you look at lower time frame, it's even stuck in a range even more.
But without looking at all that, I just want to kind of finish looking at the monthly chart here for Tesla. On top of all that, it basically is doing what Tesla did during this cycle over here. What it did for about 2 years where it broke out about this diagonal resistance zone and flipped it into support after about 2 years later, which is extremely brutal. By the way, can you imagine being a Tesla investor, thinking this is going to break out and just going to make them, you know, some pretty sick moves, but nope. And it's just having a little bit of distribution here, come back, test the zone down here of the diagonal line after all these years, that's extremely brutal, right? Well, so far we did that within 6 months, what we did over here for 2 years from 2017, 2019, we did that here for 6 months, broke out, back test, done, right? Absolutely amazing. If you look at Ichimoku cloud, you'll see how currently this cycle over here, it has a very similar look of this cycle over here, getting close to really kind of back testing the cloud over here. Break through, back test at the bottom of the cloud and then ran, right, push through to the Ichimoku cloud here like it did over here. Eventually break through the um diagonal zone as well as break through the Ichimoku cloud and back test the bottom cloud. Right. So far, I think this bottom over here is actually more clear than this bottom over here because you got a tweezer. If the way if Tesla closes the month, and this is a monthly chart, so there's no guarantee, there could always be some short-term shenanigans. They can always throw something at you. But if it if Tesla closed the way that it does this month with a tweezer bottom right smack in the back test of Ichimoku cloud and holding, then I think that this is going to be a pretty bullish chart here moving forward. I'm going to turn the conversion and baseline back up. You do have some resistance up here above now, right, the conversion base. I don't think it's just going to moonshot all the way up here around 3 uh 31s and 330s. You're going to have some resistance up here above, right? I don't think it's just going to end up pushing through here in one slide and just keep on going to the moon. I don't even think it's necessarily going to make like a crazy like 30, 40x like it did over here. I just don't think that that's going to be the case.
Now, with that said, we are at a pretty interesting location here where we could be making a pretty decent difference here. On top of it being testing the bottom of the cloud, on top of it being back tested in this diagonal trend line, you know, after its breakout, it's also trying to hold a 20-month moving average. The bulling band has also started to expand. You also have a hard time breaking through into all-time highs because things are just way outside the bullish band. I need a cool down. I just did not expect this vicious cool down all the way down to the 2s. You know, initially I thought, hey 300, okay, 250, okay, 2s, ridiculous. It went for the ridiculous because it went for ridiculous upside here when price was in the 140s all the way up to the 480s, right? So it went for ridiculous back test here with some pretty extreme sentiment reset. And that's where we are at right now, right? It's not a bad-looking chart from a lot of different angles. And if it's able to hold the 21 moving average, if the month closes the way it does right now, then it would actually look very bullish moving forward. Now there's no guarantee it's going to close the the month closed the way it is right now. But there are a lot of things that just kind of make me wonder like hm, it looks pretty decent.
Here on the weekly chart, instead of looking at the monthly, you can see how you basically have a breakout of the Ichimoku cloud and a back test of Ichimoku cloud on the weekly, right? You can look at the candle formation here. I don't, that's part of the reason why I don't think it's just going to shoot up from here is because you got a lot more resistance up here about 290 is going to be resistance. Right now it's even stuck in a range between like 260s and 230s because all these wicks above and below is stuck in a range, right? It's not ready then, right? And it needs a little bit more repairing before it can do that. Why does it need repairing? Well, it's because whenever you have a very vicious downtrend over here has been going for months on the daily chart here, a very negative sloping 20 week 20-day moving average. You need time to kind of break above and you know this is like an Adam and Eve bottom being formed right here. This is the Adam and the Eve, right? Because you need the 20 uh day moving average to turn flat before you can challenging it before you can push up higher. It's going to take time. Right now we don't even have the 20-day moving average being reclaimed. Even though we did have very bullish candle here back in um back in uh last Wednesday and so far we have a lot of these kind of uh inside candles here which you know maybe more favor towards bullish continuation, but it's going to take time. I don't think it's going to end up just ending you know going up a lot higher just like that. It's going to take time. But if you ask me whether or not this is a bullish chart here on the daily time frame, I think it's becoming more bullish cuz the 20-day moving average is no longer negative slipping. We have a chance to kind of break back above here, but it takes time. Looking at the weekly time frame here, the thing is holding some pretty decent support, although you do have a lot of resistance up here above. That's going to take time, right? Looking at the monthly here, if the month closes the way it does both in terms of the 20-month moving average, in terms of Ichimoku cloud and also in terms of a diagonal back test here, I think we're looking pretty decent here in long term. Although the daily and the weekly still need time to kind of reset this big giant vicious downtrend here has been going for the last four months, but overall higher time frame still looks great.
Now, talking about Nvidia here, do a little bit of a comparison between two stocks. Nvidia has already went up about 1300%. Right. Tesla have been consolidated sideways here for about 3 years from a big giant cup in a handle. Whereas Nvidia has already broken out and went up about 1300%. All the way up into the 2.272 fib level here. Now, 2.27 27 fib level here is very very important. The reason why is very very important is because is because it is a very important fib level that whenever things get to the 2.272 log fib, it could be the cycle top. Right. This is exactly what happened to Bitcoin during the 2020 uh 15 2017 uh bull cycle. It hit the 2.272 and that was it. Right. So if you're looking at Nvidia, it hit a very very important fib level. Couldn't push through after a whole year and uh you lose all the energy and right now it looks weak, right? The question is whether or not this is distribution or is reaccumulation. I think up here is distribution, down here is hard to say. I love this big giant wick up here. I love the hammer bottom candle over here. I love the fact that it's holding the 20-month moving average here just fine because initially I was worried about a couple scenarios. They proved two previous cycles. Whenever it breaks down underneath the 20-month moving average, it goes down a lot further. Right. It gets close to local. I didn't really quite touch it. But whenever it breaks to 20, it goes down a lot further. Right. Whenever it breaks to 20 over here, it goes down a lot further. Here I was wondering whether or not it's going to break 20. So far it's not. So we got a hammer candle right into the 20 moving average, which is bullish, right? It almost looks like one of these things where it just kind of push up and back test the 20 before going up higher. Although again things have already gone up 13 100%. So I think it's reasonable for some people to take profits. So I think that stocks trading hands right now and there are a lot of people still extremely bullish on Nvidia. Um and they're buying versus some people may be willing to kind of move on to something else and that's why you have this size consolidation here is a distribution accumulation was hard for him to say for sure. Although I I initially thought this is more distribution maybe a month or two ago. Now I'm not so sure because we got a really really nice hammer bottom right smack into the 20 moving average and also touched the kitchen here almost perfectly. Right. Touched the red line here almost perfectly. Now whenever you have a bull market, if it ends up breaking underneath the red line, the the kitchen that you go down a lot further, right? If it breaks down underneath the ticket kitchen over here, they go down a lot further. Right here we're holding here. We're holding this almost look like we're holding like we did over here, you know, and uh and it's not really anything particularly bearish if it's able to hold that in into support. The only issue is you now you're going to have to fight a bunch of against a bunch of resistance above, right? I I'll show you a little bit in terms of what I mean by that. But I don't think the stock market is over because Nvidia is actually holding pretty decent. Nvidia does have resistance up here at the tank right in the in the in the 120 zone. Basically, if you look at the weekly, it also is facing a lot of resistance here above, right? Top of the cloud here around 118. Kitchen up here around 120 and 10 getting down here 115 where it got rejected here last week. So you do need at least a few more weeks to kind of try to push through these resistance levels if it was going to have a trend reversal which I think it probably will, but it's going to take some time to really try and break above it, right? The um in comparison when you look at Tesla, Tesla's over it's above the cloud. You do have some resistance up here in the tank and kitchen, but it's still above the weekly cloud, right? Whereas Nvidia is a lot closer resistance here and it's underneath the weekly jumbo cloud. Logically, I think Nvidia is probably end up continue to underperform here a little bit. If you also look at the daily, it does look like the daily chart is flipping a little bit more bullish. You know, Tesla had a hard time reclaiming the 20-day moving average. Looks like Nvidia is doing that so far. Again, it could break down in time, but so far looking pretty decent. So that's why I don't think that the market is necessarily dead because I think Nvidia is looking okay, but Nvidia is still underneath a lot of resistance here that needs to be worked out further as opposed to Tesla which I think is probably at the earlier stages in terms of what it is in right now.
Now, looking at the comparison chart on the weekly time frame between Nvidia and Tesla. This is what I offer to you is the Nvidia over Tesla spread chart, and this is the weekly chart. It whatever this thing does really well that means Nvidia outperforms Tesla, right? And wherever this thing doesn't do very well, that means that Tesla could potentially outperform. What happened so far is that we had a distribution phase up here of Nvidia over Tesla, broke down and have a bearish back test. Right. So far it's been forming lower high and maybe some lower low here is a lower high. We'll see whether or not it forms a lower low here. You do have a bullish engulfing candle over here. So maybe we are going to end up going back down up here to the test the zone here. But so far the trend here because it does look a little bit more of a trend reversal. So far it does favor maybe a little bit more of a rejection there. Right. You can also see that it's also getting rejected cloud after breaking down into more cloud. If anything, I I favor this to be a little bit more of a bearish back test. Could it go back and have another bearish back test? Possibly. But this is also another reason why I think that the semiconductor news is coming out. Um you know we're in after hours today. Tesla's holding a lot better than the I think all these things make sense. And that's kind of what I'm seeing. So what do I do if I have money, which you know again I'm I'm kind of cash poor right now, but if I have money, what would I do? Well, I might be more interested in getting exposure to Tesla rather than Nvidia based on what I'm seeing here. Although there's no guarantee. None of this is financial advice and can always reverse trend here in a heartbeat, but this is kind of what I see. And I am currently um over the last couple months uh really maybe longer I've been divesting away from my Nvidia and I've been kind of rotating into Tesla. Right. That's kind of what I'm doing with the information. But whatever it is that you do with the information that's given to you is completely up to you. Take care, guys. Bye.