Transcription
Hello everyone, good afternoon. I hope that you had a, you know, wonderful time in the market this week. I'm pretty sure that not everyone did, right? This is due to the fact that, right, we have late CPI this week. So, as I said before, um, the days on which CPI falls within the second week of the month, which is always CPI. If that every changes, we know that something is wrong, right? So, every week, right, when there is CPI, which is the second week of the month, there are three days whereas, you know, we usually get our typical CPI. These three days on which CPI is scheduled can be used to measure the intensity of the volatility that we will get, right?
So, the specific rules for CPI are that day before CPI, you do nothing, right? That's what it is. The day before CPI, we will usually have either choppy price action or low probability expansions, which are still tradable. But the rules for you, right, for most of you who are new, and yeah, this is for those who are new and not competent yet, right? The day before CPI, you do nothing. Tomorrow, we have CPI, which is Thursday. Due to the fact that it's a late day, what should we expect? We should expect more volatility than what we would expect on either Tuesday or Wednesday. So, the day in which, right, the day in which we have CPI will cause an effect, you know, on the market's expansion. So, Tuesday, we will have, you know, regular CPI expansion. If it occurs on Wednesday, then we will have more liquidity being injected into the marketplace. And if it happens on Thursday, then that's very rare, right? We haven't seen this for a few months, I believe, right? CPI occurring on Thursday. So, we can expect something, some big change to occur tomorrow, right? And due to the fact that it's Thursday, I personally will just be waiting for CPI to be released. And I know that it's a pain, right? It used to be a pain for me, it's not anymore, right? Just waiting for something to form, waiting for your setup. These are times when you should rewatch the old lectures. These are times that you should be spent in, you know, in your charts, backtesting. These are times when you should be looking back at your old successful trades, your old backtesting data, where the information that you have learned worked, right? You don't want to be dropped in, you know, fear whenever we have high probability market conditions occurring. So, you need to be on your toes. You need to always be in your bag, always be taking note of what's going on in the marketplace. If you're not trading with live data or, you know, backtest, if you're not trading with a live account, which you should not be doing, like, right now, especially right now, right? It's 6:08 p.m. I think I saw someone in the chats post in charge, right? No, don't do that, right?
And after Thursday, we have high impact news events as well on Friday, right? So, whatever happens tomorrow, and this is why Fridays are typically, you know, one of the easiest days of the week, right? Because what Friday's function? 75%, 75% of the times, Friday will just return back into the weekly range, right? It might not cover the entire weekly range, sometime it sometimes it does, right? But it will definitely return back. Well, let me not say definitely, that's too cocky. It will more than likely return back into the weekly range. Whatever happens, right? Here, you can see that really, and our main focus was the Great British pound. If you, you know, remember clearly, we were aiming for, you know, price to expand towards this high, which, you know, we are a few pips short of. But I'm, you know, confident that price will get there, right? So, when price gets here, right, if we see some form of consolidation and then a lower timeframe sequential MT, due to the fact that if this gets here, right, there is a minimal amount of distance between the price action right now of the Great British pound and this high right here, which was the high of the previous year's quarter. Here for the Euro, you can see that we are in fact, right, um, close to this high, but, you know, we're not too close to this one. So, we could see price run above this high, run above this high. And right, if price stabilizes, right, because we don't just want to see wicks, right? We want to see price stabilize a bit. What is stabilization? Basically, technically, it is just consolidation, right? So, here price stabilized, here price stabilized, here price stabilized. After stabilization, which is consolidation, we get manipulation and then distribution, right? So, here we can see that price has been in a tight range, right, here, basically between the high, this high, and this low of this candle, respect. Right? We have liquidity, immense amount of above this high, which I believe, you know, should be the next draw on liquidity. Here, this is definitely an external liquidity for me, right? We have seen price trade down into this daily fair value gap and then really higher. So, price here is, you know, in what price is in premium, but it reacted to this fair value gap. This is something that we look at after we, you know, look at the index futures. Try here, you can see that price traded into this, for traded above it a small amount, and then it did give a slight amount of reaction, but, you know, nothing much. And right, it's the days before CPI, right? So, we do not expect a lot, right? The, the Great British pound has reason to be reaching for this high, right? So, there will be times when you will just see, for example, the Great British pound reaching for a high, right? Expanding higher, expanding while the Euro is not expanding, while the dollar is not. And the same thing goes for the index futures. Try there, when you will see the S&P 500 expanding, NASDAQ being stagnant, doing nothing, and the that being stagnant and doing nothing. Whenever you have price action like this occur, right? It's a telltale sign that there is manipulation being, you know, played. The manipulation is on the way, even though it's not visually, right, depicted in the charts as yet. Even though the liquidity has not been taken as yet. So, here you can see that we are nowhere close to this low, right? We're literally at this high right here. And this right here is showing you that, you know, a correlating correlation is underway, right? Highly likely, right? But for this to be, you know, confirmed, if price trades above this high, it's not just price trades above this high that I short. No, price trades above this high, okay? We're in conditions, you know, whereas we could see price, you know, return back within the range or whatever. But when price trades above this high, right, if it does, you want to wait for a lower timeframe crack in correlation, you know, which would occur between either the month within the monthly cycle or the weekly cycle, you know, more preferably the weekly cycle. Whenever you have a two-stage crack correlation, which, you know, hops a cycle, for example, you have a monthly cycle correlating correlation, but then it skips the, the next cycle, which is the second cycle correlating correlation, skips the weekly cycles correlating correlation and goes through nine cycle, there you will get, you know, more expansion than, you know, the regular correlating correlation or regular two-stage correlating correlation, which would, you know, basically be sequential SMT on the monthly cycle, followed by sequential SMT on the weekly cycle. So, still, right, even, you know, I still cannot, you know, not see these highs right here for the US dollar Index. So far, you can see that we have been having, right, a lot of choppy price action, right? Literally, you know, no clean price action. It's still readable, right? We are still, you know, on track most of the times, but it is not, you know, easy. And what do I mean by that? I have to be, you know, using, you know, concepts that I, you know, don't really like to be using. Right? I like to just look at a chart and it's very easy. I like just knowing what price is going to do right away. So, I like to just open a chart and, right, I don't need want to be spending more than 30 seconds to a minute trying to decipher what price is going to do. Here, looking at the index futures, try here, you can see that we still have expansion going on the way, right? And all of this expansion, where did it came from? Right? It all started here, you know, the correlating correlation between the month, the monthly cycle, right? And this is the four timeframe which is packed to the month cycle, right? So, we knew that this was going to happen, right? We talked about it here, then we talked about it here again. So, there was no way whereas we were, we were like, okay, we're going to short here. No, no, no. It was all just upwards movements, right? And another thing to, you know, take into consideration is that whenever I say that I expect price to go higher, and until I say, okay, now I expect price to go lower, right? Till I say that, then the bias is just the same. During market conditions like this, whereas we just have price, you know, going higher, higher, higher, right? First of all, these market conditions are dangerous, right? At any moment, right? We could just have price just completely drop, gap, take out everything that happened right here. So, if you are in this trading this, right, you know, take profits. Don't, you know, try to hold for price to, you know, go to heaven or whatever, right? Just take, take profits, sit back, wait for, you know, consolidation, wait for price to be stagnant, price to, you know, be like this. You see, before this manipulation occurred, then of course, you should know that manipulation only occurs whenever there's a correlating correlation. So, there are times when you will see price just run above a high and it will just continue, run above the high, just like here, right? This was not manipulation, right? Why? This was not a correlating correlation, right? This was not sequential SMT, which is why it continued higher. Whatever we have, right, a high timeframe cycle sequence SMT, right here, and I believe this was intermarket as well, right? Whenever we have this price action like this and it just continues to go higher until, right, until we have an immediate lower timeframe, you know, cycle in comparison to this sequential SMT, which would, you know, occur on the within the daily cycle, then no, within, sorry about that, within the weekly cycle. Due to the fact that this sequential occurred within the monthly cycle, we do not expect a reversal, right? So, it's simple to understand. Expansion will continue to happen until there is either, right, a same timeframe cycle sequence SMT, such as this. So, for this movement, this to be to be canceled, we either need monthly, the monthly timeframes or the monthly cycle sequence SMT to occur, right? Or we need it to occur within the weekly cycle. Whenever we have price actions whereas you see, you know, the Dow being to to the auto sync from the NASDAQ and the S&P 500, don't pay too much attention to Dow, right? As I said before, right? You want to have all of your attention here, right? The Dow right now is doing nothing, well, nothing that makes sense. Imagine trading this, right? Event, you went short here, you're going to be taken out. You went long here, you're going to be taken out. You went short here, you're going to be taken out. And if you went long, you're still going to be taken out, right? So, you don't want to be paying attention to the, too much attention to the Dow right now, right? So, it, the Dow whenever it is out of sync, and this is very important, and this is why I told you to, you know, make sure you have a, make sure they have, you know, a piece of paper to write on. Of course, whatever the Dow, right? And this one isn't, you know, going to be too long, but it's juicy, right? Whenever the Dow is all the sync with the NASDAQ and the S&P 500, it will send you false signals sometimes. So, there'll be times when it will, you know, give you a signal, so it will say, okay, this is SMT, you try to trade it, but it doesn't work. And the same thing goes for the Forex market, right? You know, the FX Tri, sometimes the Great British pound will give you false signals whenever it's just in range in price action. And there are even times when you will have the Euro give you false signals. But this occurs when whenever you have, you know, price just being out of sync, right? And what, how do you know which one is out of sync, right? It's very easy when that's the only asset within the triad that's just, you know, doing its own thing. So, for example, right, what would have made the NASDAQ other the sync? If the NASDAQ was doing what the Dow is doing now, and the Dow is following the S&P 500 lockstep, then you know that's how you would know. Here, right, as you guys remember, we expected the G British P to be drawn to this level right here. So, this is the level that we expect. If you remember the last, from the last live stream that I did, this is the only thing that I actually pointed to, right? This like, and that's just my thing, right? I will have two ideas, but I want to give you the best one, right? So, of course, in the future, right, when everything is more advanced, you're more advanced, we've delved into more topics, you know, we'll be, you know, do it more. But for now, this is how, you know, this is how I do it, and, you know, seems to be working. So, yes, I always give, you know, the highest probability. I'm going to say this, okay? And if you realize, I'm going to point to either the daily or the four or timeframe, why? Because on those timeframes, is, you know, that's that's where you have the most expansion, you know, for your lower timeframe cycles, right? The daily timeframe goes hand in hand, right? The daily timeframes levels goes hand in hand with the weekly timeframe, you know, which goes hand in hand and is synchronized to the one-hour timeframe, right? So, here you can see that we fell below this low, which is not just any low, right? You know, if you look right here, right? And the reason why this is happening right here, where this candle right here is out of sync with, you know, the programming of this level is because I did not tell the person that made this indicator, you know, basically anything really, right? They, I didn't go into deep details. They, they just got this from what, from the YouTube video. But this candle right here, it's very important, right? So, this is the opening candle of Sunday, right? So, basically, technically speaking, this is, right, the low of the first quarter, Sunday, the opening price of Sunday, right? That's the opening price of the entire week. That's the opening price of, you know, the week, right? So, the, this low right here, the low of Sunday, right here, yes, this is the low of the first quarter, even though it's not sync sync right here, it seems to be, you know, like it a part of Friday, but it's not. This is the beginning of the first quarter, right? This low is important. And what makes this low more important is whenever you have a Fe, a higher timeframe fair value gap, all caps, a higher timeframe fair value gap below this low, all right? So, below this low, if you remember from, you know, the previous charts that we looked at, right? This is a fair value gap which caused, you know, this reaction right here. So, so, for the most important thing is that we had sequential SMT, right? So, since we identified that this low was the low of Q1, you can see that in Q2, which was Tuesday, right? We had price take this low out here. Within the Euro, price did not take this low out, right? What is that? Sequential SMT, okay? Sequential SMT occurred, right? And we're looking at the weekly cycle, which is comprised of days. When do you know when to take this seriously? You already know whenever we have a precision swing point occur, right? After the sequential SMT is established, right? So, first of all, here we have, what is this? The true week open. Price is below the true week open, is it not? Yes, it is. Price is below the true week open. Then, here we had a one precision swing point, right? So, this is a precision swing point right here, right? You can, you know, look at the time timestamps, go to your chart, expect the Euro, and you'll see it, which is what I expect, right? This is a precision swing point. So, once this happens, right? It does not need to be the lowest low at all, right? And also, the, this precision swing point created a correlating correlation as well, right here. You see this candle right here, 1400 Tuesday, 09, which is yesterday, right? Price traded below this candle in the Euro. Price did not trade below that candle right there. No, that's not, you know, you know, considered to be, you know, high probability or anything. It doesn't mean anything by itself. But due to the fact that we have this higher timeframe level, right? This is a daily fair value gap, right here. A daily fair value gap is right here. I just haven't, you know, drawn on the chart or anything or highlighted the area. But below this low, like literally below this low, is a daily fair value gap. What makes this more high probability is, you know, the fact that this candle right here, you know, which expanded all the way here, this is the opening of the week right here. So, what is this? This is a new week opening gap right here. So, if we do this, right? So, no, this is not, this is not the open of the week, my bad. This is the open of the week right here, right? So, price opened here and expanded. It gapped from here, literally, right? Gapped from here, here, right? So, price closed here on Friday, opened here on Tuesday, then just gapped up. This is what it looks like, right? This is the new week opening gap. So, due to the fact that the new week opening gap, right, was the low of the first quarter, that makes this low more reactive, which is why we had expansion here and, you know, price barely did anything right here. Also, the fact that there is a daily fair value gap below this low here, also, right? How can you know that, you know, price would expand? That's right here, right? That let the candle, the candle which first broke below this low, using the one-hour timeframe, right? Which correlates with the weekly cycle, right? This candle right here broke below this low, this one, right? You know, completed the formation of this gap here. You can see that there is a fair value gap here. Over here, we don't have a fair value gap, right? So, this is showing you that the Great British pound is more prone to move. This is also showing you that this inverse fair value gap right here, right? Because it becomes the inverse fair value gap once price broke above it, right? Cutting through all the candles, this is the fair value gap. This is more likely to hold. So, right, let's say it again. This fair value gap, IVG, inverse fair value gap, is more likely to hold. Why? Because there's not one here. This is a correlating correlation right here because we have a fair value gap here, we don't have one here. Hence why we expect this one to hold, right? Also, we ran liquidity here, we didn't do it here. It's sequential SMT right here. We have a precision swing point, which is a telltale sign of reversals. We flipped this fair value gap, traded higher. And remember that whenever we trade into a fair value gap, and there was a smaller one here, right? Afterwards, the, you do not expect the next gap to to be, you know, filled. You expect it to be left open. So, here we flipped here. There was a small fair value gap here. Price traded down into it, expanded about the true week open. And also, remember what we stated that the true opens, right? Whenever we have SMT and price trade and price flips the true opens opening price, it serves as either support, right? In bullish conditions, or resistance in bearish conditions. So, we flipped, traded down into the two-week opening price, traded down into this, you know, then balanced price range did not. So, this is how this gap was formed right here, right? This is why price didn't come down and overlap with this wick because of this balanced price range and because of the true open. So, price traded into this and, right, remember we already don't expect, right, any gap that is here to be left, you know, to be filled, basically. We don't, we don't expect this to be filled in the first place. Why? Because price filled this gap, price filled this gap, expanded. So, it's common sense that the balanced price range will be the last resort for price. And it's literally perfect. You can't complain with this, right? It's literally to the tick that price filled this balanced price range. Price filled it and then expanded even higher. You know, next draw liquidity is this high. So, I hope that you found something useful from this, right? If you realize, I'm, we're getting deeper, we're going deeper, right? But I definitely don't want to give you too much information that has your brain scrambling. So, I hope that you spend, you know, the rest of the week, right? Definitely reading price action. Take note of what happens tomorrow, right? If anything interesting, interesting happens, I will, you know, come back here and, you know, talk about it, of course. So, make sure that you take notes, make sure that you pay attention, and good luck and good trading.
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All you want to me is a b obsession. I am the maring the T on the stream. How many times can I ask you? How many days can I go without without you?
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Distance a killer the of how many days can I go without?
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Show show.