Transcription
Now, everybody, I'm Cantonese Cat. Everybody, Cantonese Cat here. I haven't done a public video on YouTube for a very long time. Figure I'll just go ahead and do it to get my thoughts out there. I'm going to take my time. I'm not going to rush it. I'm just going to talk about every single thing that I'm seeing in terms of cycles, in terms of Bitcoin, Ethereum, gold, IWM, and everything. Risk on. We'll see how long this video is going to take. I don't want to take up all night, 'cause at some point I do have to end.
But before I begin, I just want to say this. If you don't follow me on X and you use X as a platform, please go and follow me. I've been growing pretty exponentially. I've been pretty happy about that. A lot of the videos I post on YouTube, I also post on X. I usually pin it as soon as I post it. This is from last week. And, uh, I post probably about like 50 charts today. You can see that I have a lot of charts. They're being posted. Usually these charts don't take me too long to do, maybe like 30 seconds to a couple minutes to really do. So, I've been really posting a lot of them. And the reason why I did that is because I actually want to use these charts to kind of take a step back and talk a little bit more about, you know, cycle behavior of all these different assets that we're talking about.
I also want to bring it to attention here too. This is my metrics on X and it's a little bit of an interesting metric here because back in March and April when the market was just taking a dump, when IWM just dropped like 30-something percent, everybody super scared, I actually got very, very, very little follows. I also got very, very, very little impressions here. I would say that, yeah, I mean, I did post a little bit less over here during that time, but the reality is, for the most part, I've been posting pretty consistently throughout the entire year. Um, when the number of impressions, number of views on my post has been just really dipping when the market is terrible. And now is actually heating up. I think retail is finally coming back in. They're finally being interested in the market, but they're not really that euphoric. I'm actually not sensing any euphoria at all. And in terms of looking at sentiment, everybody's actually pretty scared still. Um, with that said, retail are coming back. They're starting to show a little bit of interest because I'm starting to get a little bit over a million of impressions pretty much daily here for the last couple months, which is fantastic.
Now, without further ado, I'm going to, I'm going to talk about what I think is going on with Bitcoin, what I think is going on with the four-year cycle. And I'm not going to be that deterministic about it, but I do think that we have a lot more time for the cycle to play out compared to what other people think it is.
This is Bitcoin. What I did here is I drew a fib channel. And you can see that basically Bitcoin went from one fib level to another. And whenever you have something known as a resistance over here, which is the 1.414, four and four fib level over there on this fib channel, flipped from resistance here into support. This is not a bearish thing. You see how we've been kind of holding this 1.4 and four level over here for three weeks in a row. We just wick, wick, wick, and there is a pretty strong demand level down here below. Um, and we're able to find pretty decent support over here. This is not bearish. I think this, if anything, this is going to be, um, basically supporting very bullish continuation.
Instead of looking at fib channel, we can also look at just regular Fibonacci sequence here from the cycle high, the cycle low. You can see how it has finally broken above the 1.272 and back-tested 1.272 over here with two really beautiful wicks over here. Again, resistance flipped into support. This is not bearish. It really favors for a bullish continuation here as far as we're concerned. And this is a weekly chart.
Now, going back to the monthly chart here of Bitcoin, zooming out here, and I'm talking about really a Bitcoin chart that dates all the way back in 2014 here. This is what is called the Ichimoku cloud. It's basically a way to, um, calculate based on moving period averages. I'm not going to go too much into the, into the math here. But what I do want to point out is that it gives you a couple lines here. One very important line is called a conversion line or the tenken, tenken-sen, is what I would like to refer it to. And in a bear market, tenken basically serves as resistance. This blue line serves as resistance. In a bull market, price tends to ride up the tenken on the way up. Resistance here during bare market. Have a little bit of a false breakout here. And eventually, we're able to actually finally reclaim it back into support. We have a bull market here. And when we lost it as support and turned into resistance, that's when you have a bare market. So far, with using this line here, just kind of stepwise riding on the way up here, support, support, support, support. Got really close to it this time. I cannot say that this is the bare market unless if we lose the tenken. And this is an objective way to look at charts in general. When you have a broken down tenken, you worry about a bare market. When you don't have a broken down, uh, tenken, basically riding up stepwise, this is still a bull market until proven otherwise. I am bullish on Bitcoin.
Another way to look at Bitcoin is this. This is what we call a Gan square. This is based on Fibonaccis as well as the number 45 to look at geometry in terms of trying to look for market symmetry here. What you see here is that pretty much every single cycle, price ends up going to an arc and getting rejected. The arc here eventually was able to push through, backtest, and went up a lot higher to the next arc. Right? Same thing here. Form rejection here. Form a cup. Push back above. Backtest. Went to the next arc. Rejected there. Form a cup. Right? Pushed back up here. Backtest the arc here for about a whole year. Pushed up through there. Not just broken above the arc here, also broke above the horizontal over here. Went to the next arc. Right? Rejected. Form a cup here. Backtest the arc. As soon as we broke down, where is it going to go? Probably going to go horizontal line over here. Where is the horizontal line? Around 200,000. That would be a pretty important resistance level, I would say. Now, you're able to break through the 200,000 level, maybe zigzag, who knows? It's not necessarily going to be a direct path, right? It could end up getting rejected there, come back, form a little cup, and then push through the next arc up here. Depending on where it hits, right? It could, if it hits here, it could be anywhere from 500,000, 700,000. If it goes lower, it can hit lower, right? But so far, we've been breaking arc after arc after arc. We've already had a beautiful backtest of this arc over here. So, it's going to gravity up to the next level. I think 200,000 should be more or less in the bag. If it's not, then I'm sorry. You know, nothing is that deterministic, but I'm positioned that way. And I'll show you why that is here in a second.
You can see that in addition to looking at arc after arc after arc, breakthrough, backtest, breakthrough, backtest, you can also see over here, this is the RSI trend line. You've got overheated RSI pretty much every single cycle. We haven't really had that overheated RSI here on the monthly quite just yet. And we haven't really hit that RSI trend line over here quite just yet this cycle, which is a longer cycle here as far as I'm concerned.
Some people are just saying, "Yeah, maybe Bitcoin just out of favor. Institutions getting a hold of it. It's not going to have that parabolic move anymore. It's just changing behavior. It's changed behavior. This time's different." Well, I don't know. I mean, I'm going to show you a lot of other things to basically show that I, I think the cycle is just longer. Um, I think that, um, we still haven't hit the escape velocity for Bitcoin quite just yet. The parabolic bull phase may not have hit. Um, and it might be a little bit controversial for those people who believe in the four-year cycle.
But if you look at the Bollinger band here on the monthly, pretty much every single cycle, you end up having a bullish expansion on the parabolic move on the way up. Bollinger expansion on the parabolic move on the way up. Bollinger expansion on the way to parabolic move on the way up, right? Bollinger band squeeze followed by Bollinger band expansion. Bollinger band squeeze followed by Bollinger band expansion. Whenever you have expansion here, if you look underneath a log scale, the lower Bollinger band goes all the way down to the negative. It gives you a really, really drastic appearance of this u-monthly Bollinger band where it just spreads to upside and to the downside. And until the Bollinger band comes back. This usually happened during a bare market here for Bitcoin. Um, so far, we haven't really even had that expansion question there. We just keep on having this bull squeeze that's getting tighter and tighter and tighter and building up a lot of energy when price is still riding on top of the upper Bollinger band, not on top, but touching, essentially tagging the upper Bollinger band here. So that does bring me a little bit more favoring that there's going to be a bunch of expansions just like the cycle before, the cycle before that, and the cycle before that. And when that happens, that's maybe that's when the parabolic move for Bitcoin finally does happen because it simply just hasn't really happened yet.
There's something called a Pi cycle top indicator. These are basically based on moving averages. Um, they, they are based on a cross between the 350-day moving average, squared, I believe, um, as well as the, um, 111-day moving average. These are basically backtracked from, um, well, they, they came in Pi cycle indicator around 2018 and basically is, um, using these algorithms to trying to see where the tops were. And when the crosses happen, it basically was just signaling the tops from previous cycles pretty well. It also signaled a cross over here around April 2021, which some people argue is actually the cycle top, and you had the cycle top, the Pi cycle indicator that had already flashed right there. We have nowhere near having the indicator being flashed right now, like just nowhere near that.
Looking back at the weekly, what do I see here? I see a fractal. I see this broadening descending wedge over here. I see a double top and a rounded bottom and I see a push up here doing a little bit of a bull flag here and then symmetrical rectangle. And they're basically patterns just repeating. I think the MM's, market makers, maybe just getting a little bit lazy here. Broadening descending wedge, double top, rounded bottom, horizontal rectangle, bullish rectangle over here. If it plays out just like the fractal over here, whenever we're done consolidating over here, we should have the next move on the way up here. Um, when the sentiment is just extremely brutal right now. A lot of people worry about the four-year cycle ending. I don't know, guys. I just don't know.
Now, we're also looking at the weekly chart here. Look at the Ichimoku. Again, I was telling you that, you know, whenever things are about to turn, it gets more bullish. Now, this is a higher high, lower type situation. And we've had, um, on the weekly here, broken underneath the tenken here for weeks. And whenever you end up having the tenken broken back above as support, you had the next leg up, right? Broken down underneath here for a few weeks and eventually reclaimed it. Went up a lot higher. Broken down over here for about two or three months. We eventually reclaimed it for good. Backtested. Went up a lot higher. Same thing here. Right? We have come back down here. We backtested the tenken, the red line over here. And we are in the process of trying to reclaim the blue line up here. Yeah, I, I think that we might, the week is still early. We might have a little bit of a wake-up here, but I do think that we have a good chance either this week or next week to kind of reclaim this level around here. It's going to be around 114, 115,000. If we're able to close above that, I think that would increase the chances significantly for having a leg up here, which I think we're getting about ready to do.
Looking at bullish here on a weekly, you know, a very important thing here, too. Whenever you have, um, a broken down or 20-week moving average, you touch the lower Bollinger band here and then you reclaim the 20-week moving average. Then we have the next leg up, right? Touch the lower Bollinger band. Reclaim the 20-week moving average on the next leg up here. Touch the lower Bollinger band. Reclaim 20-week moving average. Next leg up here. Touch the lower Bollinger band. We're about in the process of maybe trying to reclaim the 20-week moving average. And if we're able to do that, then that would mean that that would increase our chance of having a significantly increased, um, you know, push on the way up here coming up next here.
Now, looking at my Gan chart here on the weekly, you can also see that it's been using this arc here as resistance. Horizontal line hugging that while arc is resistance, push up here, arc is resistance, push up, arc is resistance, push up, your horizontal line. So far, it's been hugging it more or less as resistance. The horizontal line up here is around 117.7,000. I should say 117,700 somewhere around there. If we ever push above that level, then I think we push a lot higher.
Moving up next. But so far, we've spent sideways over here for a few months and we just haven't really simply done anything. This is a little bit of a macro, um, a megaphone pattern where price going up and going down. It just keeps on expanding over here. Eventually, these things are usually more continuation patterns. It's probably going to end up resolving to the upside whenever it's done, but currently we're still underneath the resistance here around 117.7,000 and that we need to break back above. Although, I'm not really that scared here.
Now, looking at the daily chart, I also have a Gan chart that has given me some really remarkable market symmetry here. You see how it got rejected here. The arc push through, um, basically also pushed through this horizontal here. Backtest all these things multiple times, including horizontal, including arc, including angle, including arc here twice. Right now, we're broken back above. Right now, we're trying to push through the angle and having a hard time doing it. Doesn't come back down, backtest horizontal at 112, um, 112,000, I should say. Possible. If that ends up doing that, I think that would be a very, very healthy backtest. If it's holding, then I really do think that we build up an energy to really trying to get to the next move up here to the arc above. Um, I really do think that we've consolidated sideways for a long enough.
Now, taking a step back here, instead of just looking at Bitcoin, because you can look at one isolated asset and you can draw all these different conclusions when you really should be looking at multiple assets and thinking about multiple things all at once to see if you can find confluence to strengthen your conviction. Because if you just take a look at a piece of information here and say, "Oh, it's bearish. Oh, the four-year cycle is over." That doesn't really tell you the whole story. Uh, the whole thing about, um, these things is they take, they take time to happen. And whenever people are in a rush thinking that something's going to be over, you might miss the opportunity here just because you're used to four-year cycles.
Looking at the top part here, this is Bitcoin monthly chart. Bottom over here is what we refer to as Bitcoin dominance. Bitcoin dominance is the percentage of Bitcoin, or I should say, a percentage of the entire cryptocurrency market that belongs to Bitcoin. Right now, close to about 60% of the entire cryptocurrency market cap belongs to Bitcoin, and Bitcoin is still very dominant. The thing about it is, every single time when you have a parabolic bull phase of Bitcoin really shooting up, you have a huge drop of Bitcoin dominance on the way down, right? Bitcoin shooting up parabolically, Bitcoin dominance drop, right? And before it drops, usually it forms a little bit of a, of a sideways consolidation over here before it drops, right here. Same thing. Bitcoin parabolic move up here for about half a year. Bitcoin dominance dropped hugely over here during the same time period of time, right? Because even though Bitcoin goes up a lot more, the other altcoins and Ethereum, everything else goes up even more, and you actually end up having Bitcoin, um, having less dominance during this parabolic move because you have a lot of rotations to a lot of really, you know, speculative stuff, which, um, I do anticipate to for it to happen.
Now, looking at the Bitcoin dominance drop here, when you're talking about Bitcoin dominance dropping here, this lasted for the entire year, right? This whole, this whole thing here, you're talking about the, the Bitcoin dominance top over here, going down all the way down to like near the bottom, that lasted for almost an entire year as well. Right? These things take their time. They don't always happen in a hurry. What is Bitcoin dominance doing right now? Bitcoin dominance has been going up straight for about three years without really taking a break until recently. This is the first time when Bitcoin dominance is really looking like it just wants to go sideways and do nothing. It really does. So, like, maybe Bitcoin dominance is starting to get a little bit more tired, a little bit more exhausted here, finally. Right? The last time you started to have this kind of, you know, exhausting kind of look over here was when it was right before Bitcoin dominance dropped and right before the parabolic move of Bitcoin going up. We still haven't really had that happen. I think that we're getting primed for it. And when that happens, a lot of people are going to say, "Oh, you know, maybe two months max, three months max." I don't know. History is telling you that these things last a lot longer, whole year, six months. And this is actually a higher high over there. So, arguably lasted for a whole year over here. And we currently have a consolidation over here, just like we did over here, just like we did over here, while Bitcoin dominance also consolidating, getting its next move, which I think is probably going to be down. Um, especially with the big giant wake-up here so far for the month of October.
Now, those are just one thought, right? Let's take a look at another thought here. Is there any other way I can look and think about global liquidity, or at least liquidity going into the US? One way to think about liquidity cycle is this. When you have increasing in money printing, when you have increasing liquidity, when things get more risk on, the one thing that generally makes all-time highs and does extremely well, um, is the small caps. And the small caps are more speculative, they are more debt-driven. They are going to be one of those that don't do very well unless if things get really risky. They're going to have like an outperformance. If IWM does well, then like Cathy's Ark fund or a lot of the other, you know, really extremely speculative stuff like AI data, data centers, and, and whatnot, they're going to do extremely well if IWM does well. And currently, what we're seeing here is that looking at this past two cycles over here, and this is the third cycle that we're experiencing right here. Past two cycles, you go for a deleveraging period where things just look really crappy. And it gets reversed here in a hurry because whenever you deleverage, that's when you have a lot of risk that has been removed from the system. And that's when you're actually going to be allowed to make the next move on the way up. Right? Deleveraging, breakout on the way up. Deleveraging, breakout on the way up here. How long have we been consolidating over here? We consolidated over here for about four years. The Russell 2000, rather, IWM has done absolutely nothing for four years. This cycle is longer than any other. The accumulation range has been longer than any other. And if you're looking at the previous cycles over here, this only happened for about two and a half years. This only happened for about, you know, a year, year and a half. This is the longest cycle over the last decade and a half, two decades in terms of accumulation. And now we're starting to get into maybe a little bit more euphoria and distribution phases. If we have a true confirmed breakout in October, again, we don't have the October candle closed quite just yet, but if we have a confirmed breakout of the monthly candle of the previous all-time high, if this breakout happens, I think that's going to actually lead into Bitcoin having its parabolic move on the way up because that's basically signaling that, hey, liquidity is going in. Is risk on, right? Breakout, Bitcoin goes up here for a year. Breakout, Bitcoin goes up here for half a year, and then another half a year later making another higher high here. We're wait, basically waiting for Bitcoin, basically waiting for IWM or Russell 2000 to really have its breakout before things get more fun. Um, I think sometimes you might have a little bit of a delay here, like during the 2015-2017 bull cycle, you have a little bit of a delay from the Bitcoin breakout by maybe a couple months or so, you know, before it does finally have the parabolic move. I think we're just consolidating sideways over here with Bitcoin, just waiting for something to happen with global liquidity, which is going to be indicative here by IWM. And I think things are going to look pretty good here.
Now, another way to look at global liquidity is this. Over the last three cycles or four cycles, I would, I shouldn't say cycles, for the legs, the last three legs up that you see here for Bitcoin, leg up number one, leg up number two, leg up number three, that gets pretty, you know, drastic here. You have the Nikkei, which is the Japan index that includes 225 companies in Japan, basically going through the same thing. When you have a bullish phase of the Nikkei going up here, Bitcoin goes up, Nikkei go up, Bitcoin goes up. They're very, very correlated for the last decade. We might have a little bit of decoupling over here because Nikkei has been just going up to the moon over here for the last six months when Bitcoin has done absolutely nothing. Are we talking about decoupling where Bitcoin is no longer tied to global liquidity? Global is no longer tied to Japanese liquidity? Or are we talking about bullish divergences where there's increased liquidity ready for rotation at any time, but it still hasn't happened yet? I don't know what the answer to that is. I think I'm favoring the second, but I don't want to bias you. I just want you to think about it.
A lot of people think that Bitcoin is basically looking the same as the 2021 top because you're talking about a little bit of exhaustive top, right? "Oh, no. It only made a little bit of a higher high over here. Really reminds me of that weakness that we're showing here in 2021. Things are going to plummet. The cycle is over." Why do I think that that's not necessarily true? Well, think about it in terms of global liquidity. What happened last time when you made a little bit of an exhaustive higher high over here that is different from now? Looking at the Hang Seng index, which basically is the index for the major Chinese stocks. Basically, all the big leagues in China are listed in the Hang Seng. And the Hang Seng index is actually a pretty good reflection of the Chinese market nowadays. What you're seeing here last time is doing this parabolic move in around 2020 all the way in 2021. This parabolic move was happening on the backs of having increased in Chinese liquidity into the global system. Whenever you make a little bit of an exhaustive high over here, I think people knew that liquidity is running out. They just want to you quickly distribute, um, and get out the market. That's why you have a very much of exhaustion because you already see that the Hang Seng index already made like, you know, some fresh lows over here, showing a lot of weakness during this higher high, right? So liquidity is already leaving the system, and the Chinese liquidity is already, you know, starting to go on a downtrend over here. You can see that it hasn't done very well after that. Currently, we're in a very, very different situation. Currently, we have the Bitcoin prices basically just marginally going up here a little bit, but Hang Seng has been going beast mode over here for about two, especially for the last year or so, when Bitcoin has done nothing, and Hang Seng basically beast mode for a whole year here. I would argue that we had a bearish divergence that played out very brutally, right? Price of Bitcoin going up, Hang Seng index went down, global liquidity is leaving, Bitcoin exhaustion, market over, right? Here is a little bit of a different situation. You're talking about Bitcoin doing sideways over here when the Hang Seng just going beast mode, when there's increasing liquidity just basically pumping in the system to pump Chinese stocks. And I'm, I'm thinking that we have more of a bullish divergence that hasn't played out yet as opposed to a bearish one. Even if we see resistance around here, which I think we're going to get get resistance around the index around the 28,000 or so, I think that might actually be a catalyst for rotation for liquidity to go into Bitcoin to kind of push prices up a lot higher. I'm seeing a lot more of these kind of bullish divergences rather than last time. Like this is a very drastic difference in terms of global liquidity.
Another thing I also want to show is a lot of people basically was just showing this bearish divergence on the weekly where price kind of gone up here a little bit. RSI has been forming, you know, lower highs over here. Scary, right? Because that's what happened last time over here around the top 2020-2021 when you have basically this bearish divergence, price gone up, RSI has gone down. The problem with just I'm using this is selective bias because there are a lot of times where you have price going up and you have RSI going down, then this bearish divergence is end up getting negated because this is Bitcoin. Bitcoin doesn't really care if it wants to go, it wants to go. Here. Same thing. Your price actually gone up from here to to around here. Um, but you actually RSI kind of plumbing down. All it takes is just a little bit of a push over here. Next thing you know, it gets negated on the move on the way out here around 2015, 2017, especially towards the later part of the cycle. You have all this crazy bearish divergence that just keeps on getting negated after negated after negated. And just because we have a little bit of bearish divergence over here doesn't mean the cycle is over. You cannot look in an, you cannot look at an asset in isolation just based on one single indicator. That does not work. You have to look at, zoom out and look at a lot of other things and see what everything else is doing.
Looking at, and I'm going to transition here a little bit more to Ethereum, because I think it's important. Looking at Ethereum here compared to Bitcoin. Ethereum has been having a major breakout and a backtest. Ethereum has gone through essentially three cycles where you got a pretty major resistance level over here. Once you break out, that's when Bitcoin goes through a parabolic move right here. Same thing. You have a resistance level here, here, here. You have a breakout over here, backtest. And once you break out over here, that's when Bitcoin goes parabolic together with Ethereum. Right? Now, what, what is happening here? We have resistance level over here around 4,000, 300, anywhere around 3,100 to 4,000 resistance. Resistance, resistance, resistance, breakout, backtest. We're getting ready potentially for that parabolic move up here between Ethereum and Bitcoin. That's what I'm thinking.
Now, focus a little bit more on Ethereum. And as I mentioned about this, um, resistance zone over here, very important. This happened over and over again. Resistance zone. You have a little bit of deviation here, a little bit of deviation here, a little bit of deviation here. It's interesting how the cycle just kind of play out very, very similarly. Down here is a little bit of deviation to grab liquidity, making everybody all sad because you got a little bit of a trend line here breakdown, everybody's capitulated, and that's when you have a move up, right? Because you have deleveraging, you have capitulation of retail, um, and that's when you're allowed to move up here. Same thing during COVID, last capitulation here on the way up. And next thing you know, when it breaks above that resistance zone, where it breaks above that resistance zone here last cycle, backtested, that's when you go up a lot higher, right? What's happening right now? We broke through that zone and we're backtesting it right here. I think we're going to end up going a lot higher after we're done backtesting it because we already have the deleveraging event that's got everybody really scared over here already many months ago. So, that is, as far as I'm concerned, bullish here for Ethereum.
Now, Ethereum is also looking at my Gan square over here. It's at a key resistance level right here around 4,800, 4,900, somewhere around there. This level has been resistance here for about four or five years. Just like IWM, we've been building a base over here and another, you know, handle over here. Big giant accumulation zone over here for about four or five years. Once it breaks out, I think it's going to be pretty powerful. I just don't know when that's going to be. And I don't know how high it's going to go, but looking at this, I think we should go to four figures. Um, and these are just some speculative ideas in terms of how high it could go.
Another way to look at it too is I have another setting here for Gan. Same thing, right? We have flipped this arc over here from resistance here back into support, right? And then we broke through. Does come back and backtest the arc here again? I don't think so. I think it's probably ready to kind of go up a lot higher now. You do have resistance here around 9,000. So I think we're going to get getting rejected that, getting people all demoralized, and we push through, backtest, and going to go up a lot higher to the five figures. That's what I think in terms of targets.
Now, in addition, look at comparing Bitcoin to global liquidity. In addition, look at Bitcoin comparing it to, you're talking about IWM, which again is Russell 2000, which is a pretty good liquidity cycle indicator, right? What you're seeing here is this. Whenever you have a breakout of the Russell 2000 to make all-time highs on the run-up here after the deleveraging event, after the deleveraging event, after the deleveraging event, pretty much you're talking about anywhere from about two or three months lag over here for Ethereum during the cycle here. During the cycle, it just happened right away. Whenever you have a breakout here for IWM, that's when Ethereum is like, "Let's go." You know, went parabolic, right? So far, what do we have here? Well, we just broke above that resistance zone. We just had the IWM breaking above. So, I think we either are getting pretty close to having Ethereum push up or maybe, you know, maybe two or three months based on what history is suggesting, maybe two or three months before Ethereum goes up here, yet. I am pretty bullish in terms of Bitcoin. I'm even more bullish on Ethereum. Um, and I'm even more bullish on altcoins here.
Now, why am I more bullish on Ethereum here moving forward? This is the top part over here is Ethereum. The bottom part over here is Ethereum dominance. Again, Ethereum dominance tells you the percentage of the entire cryptocurrency market cap that belongs to Ethereum. Currently, it's around 13%. When you see Ethereum dominance being positive here, and I'm showing this here with something called a super trend. Don't worry about the detail. All it's telling you, a super trend means it's bullish, right? It means this bull market is happening. We have just started flipping the super trend here. Bullish, just like we did over here. We have a little bit of a higher high here compared to that, you know, just like we have a little bit higher high here compared to that. This is the beginning of a bull trend here, maybe for Ethereum dominance. And if it continues to play out, if this is a bull flag, if we have further, you know, Ethereum dominance to push up to the upside over here, that could last a long time here. The Ethereum dominance continues to go up after that point over there. It went on for about a whole year, year and a half, right? And that happened right when you break above this resistance and backtested. That's when you start to have some pretty decent, um, bullishness here on Ethereum dominance. Same thing here. Broke above, backtested resistance. So far, it's holding extremely well. Ethereum dominance is making more or less higher highs over here and it's flipping bullish over here on the super trend. So, as far as I'm concerned, this is bullish.
Looking at the Ichimoku cloud here on the weekly, this is also very, very illustrative way to look at Ethereum dominance. You can see how beautiful it is. This is a weekly chart here. The weekly candles have broken through the Ichimoku cloud, has been backtesting Ichimoku cloud support here for about nine or 10 weeks, and it's been holding as support beautifully with these beautiful wicks over here. It looks like Ethereum dominance wants to continue here to the upside whenever it's done. That's what it looks like to me. When that is, I don't know.
In addition to just looking at Ethereum, I, I don't want to talk about too many altcoins here because I think it's a little bit irrelevant. I also just want to talk about altcoins sometimes run even later after Bitcoin runs, after Ethereum runs, after IWM breaks into all-time highs. All these things are just starting to kind of, you know, come on about. So, I'm not going to be saying one of those folks that saying, "Hey, you only have two months left." It doesn't really make sense to me based on how your cycle has happened, right? Because it takes time. It takes six to 12 months for things to play out whenever they start to play out. I don't want to rush it. Just because the previous cycle is four years doesn't mean that this one is.
Just looking at Doge here, you can see how Doge formed a cup over here for about three years. Here. Doge has been forming a cup over here for close to about four and a half, five years now. It's just been building a big giant base and has just been absolutely insane. And we just had the deleveraging event that just happened about two or three weeks ago. With that said, look at this correlate over here. When, whenever we get close to the end of this, um, rounded bottom over here, whenever we get a little bit closer to the end of the rounded bottom over here, that's when Ethereum breaks out above the resistance zone and goes up a lot higher, right? That's when Ethereum is breaking above the resistance zone and is getting ready to kind of go a lot higher. Thus, Doge run together with Ethereum. There is a lag. I would say the lag is probably maybe a couple months between Ethereum breaking up and going up and, um, B, and Doge finally breaking above this rounded bottom here and going up. That's probably about like maybe two or three months of lag here. So, we'll see. Ethereum takes off first, most likely, and then something like Doge or something more speculative probably end up happening maybe a couple months later after that. With that said, that basically tells you you have a little bit more time to to, um, to have, um, some accumulation, right?
In addition to look at Ethereum and comparing with Doge, let's compare Doge to the Russell 2000. Basically, when you have risk on, whenever Russell 2000 breaks into all-time highs over here and have this move up here, you have about a four-month lag before things shoot up here for Doge. Here you have a breakout here and about two months later, you have a breakout here for Doge, right? Well, we are having a breakout right now. Potentially, if the month closes the way it does, then IWM would be making all-time highs and there could be a couple months of lag here for Doge before it makes that move on the way up. But it certainly doesn't really rule it happening. I, I just don't know. A lot of people look at this, that's a lower, that's a lower low, um, that, that the cycle is over. Well, it doesn't work that way. That's a lower low right there. Next thing you know, it just went a lot higher. That's a lower low right there. It just went a lot higher. You just had a great deleveraging event. I'm not going to look at a lower low and think the trend is, is, you know, you have a big giant wick up here and you have a lot of demand down below, and it's been showing as a very beautiful wick over here, and the structure still hasn't been broken. And these things happen time and time again, even during IWM, like these things happen time and time again. These are very healthy deleveraging before the next move up as far as I'm concerned. Right? So maybe another two or three months, uh, maybe four months of lag here with Doge against IWM. You might even have a little bit more of a lag here for the other altcoins here.
But just look at the others chart here. What others is basically cryptocurrency market cap excluding the top 10 coins. So these is, these are really reflection how the altcoin market is really kind of doing because you're not, you're basically excluding like the big dogs, right? Looking at what just happened, we had a big deleveraging event that touched the lower Bollinger band over here perfectly on the monthly chart here, very similar morphology over here during COVID. And on top of that, you also had a bull squeeze over here on the monthly, bull squeeze over here on the monthly during COVID as well. That tells you a bigger move is going to come. Where everything squeezes means that you have consolidation over here for about 20 months or more. When everything's squeezed here and tells you a consolidation over here for about 20 months or more, that usually gets you ready for the next move. And usually next move is going to be pretty explosive followed by bullish expansion, right? Things get close up, they expand. That's just kind of what happens. I find this fractal to be absolutely interesting. And here you have bullish trend squeeze over here. Bollinger squeeze over here and the deleveraging event that you got really close to low Bollinger band over here and deleveraging event that got really close to low, uh, basically touch Bollinger band over here. On top of all that, you can also see that it basically momentum has been shifting, right? You have a downward trend line over here on RSI, break above, backtest. You have a very similar event that's happening over here. Very, very similar things happening.
Looking at the RSI chart by itself here, I'm looking at the Fibonacci level. It's pretty clear in terms of what's happening. Got rejected here at 0.786 over here. The reason why it's hard to break above the 0.786 is because if you break above, then things get pretty parabolic very fast, right? Well, here we had a two false breakout here. We couldn't break above 0.86, which is commonly the final boss. If we break above the 0.786, it looks like the bullish trend is even getting ready to kind of expand over here. If we break above the 0.786, I think this thing would go up a lot higher really quickly, right? But market makers know that. A lot of people know that. A lot of people feel in their bones and they end up overleveraging. They end up doing all these, you know, crazy financial instruments, um, and eventually they, they just all got liquidated. Like billions of dollars of leverage just got de, uh, that just got, um, deleveraged. That's actually a perfect time to buy. This is actually a great opportunity here because risk is basically been deleveraged. But a lot of people don't see it that way and a lot of people just get really bitter and they don't really want to even think about altcoins. They want to chase whatever is hot right now. And where is a hot, this hot stock that's popped up a lot. I usually get asked about it. Not many people really look in altcoins here, even though it's at a pretty decent spot with a big giant wick down below, touched Bollinger band, great deleveraging happened, trying to reclaim the 20-month moving average over here. If we're able to push through the 0.76, things can get up here in a pretty fast way.
Now, on top of looking at the, um, others chart here, I also look at the total three chart. Total three chart is the cryptocurrency market cap excluding Bitcoin and Ethereum. It is basically forming a very beautiful continuation pattern called a cup and handle. The handle went all the way down to 0.618. This is a valid cup and handle pattern. That means that it's going to push up a lot higher. Some of the targets are up here above. Usually with the cup and handle pattern, it is entirely possible, if not probable, that it hits the 1.44 and 1.618. It's basically the target of this cup and handle pattern is around the 1, um, let me see here, the, the entire target is around 1.272, but it could hit the 1.44, 1.618 here based on the pattern, based on Fib, um, Fib extension. I think those levels could could get hit, right? Which means that the cryptocurrency market is actually looking pretty decent where we're at right now.
I want to flip the, um, attention into something else over here. This thing has been getting a lot of attention. I also want to show you that there is a lot of confluence to say to say that the things are going to go a lot higher for longer. And I don't really think that, um, people understand gold. It's been going parabolic. Everybody's been asking about it. You're talking about people lining up to try to buy gold. Gold is at a very strong resistance level. This is October 14th. Whenever I saw gold touching 2.272, I was like, I'm not sure if this is going to end up passing through. Why is the 2.272 log fib here that important? I'll show you why that's important. Because you look at previous things such as Bitcoin 2015-2017 bull cycle, parabolic move, blow-off top, way to end 2.272. What else is there? 2.272. Dogecoin here. Bull cycle, right? 2020, 2021, where does it end at? 2.272 log fib, right? Um, you're talking about Nvidia, the bull cycle that just had all the way from 2022 all the way to 2024. Where do you end up having resistance? They're having a hard time breaking above until recently. 2.272. 2.272 can be a cycle ender. This is Amazon during the COVID bull market. Where did it end up at? 2.272. You had a hard time breaking above 2.272 for about a year and a half, two years. It did absolutely nothing. Very important number. What else is important to 2272? Um, S&P 500. You look at the great financial crisis on the way up over here before the 2022 correction. Where do we end up hitting at? To the 2.272 log fib, right? 2.27 log fib over here for Alibaba during the beginning IPO all the way up here to up top over here. And we haven't even got anywhere close since then, right? 2.272 is a very important level. Another thing to show you, MARA, another stock that I'm, you know, been talking about a lot. The bull market, whether it end up last time, end up close to 21272, didn't really quite get there. These are just illustrations in terms of kind of showing you that I think 2.272 is a very, very important level. Yeah. Continue talking about gold. I got a lot of people asking me and giving me narratives saying, "World governments buying gold, it's going to go up a lot higher, liquidity has to go somewhere." No, no, no, no.
No. I'll show you why that is. If in addition to looking at gold in terms of the 2.272 log fib, you can also look at it with fib channels as well. They're all hitting very important resistance zone. If you do a fib channel over here in log, you can see that it's basically hitting that one level over here and got rejected here unfortunately. Right?
If you're looking at the fifth channel in a linear scale, you can see how it's hitting the 2.618 up here perfectly and got rejected. If you're looking at the fifth sequence, again, I was showing you the 2.272. A lot of times, like whenever people like, oh, this is going to go a lot higher, 2.618. Or like, wait, this is a monthly chart. It could get rejected there. It could just turn into a wick. So far, it's been a big giant nasty wake up above and is getting rejected here to 1272 because all these confluence I'm seeing.
Now if you don't like lock scale you can look at linear scale that's fine too linear is hitting 3.618 618 which is also a very very important level of resistance is getting rejected right there. Gold looks toppy. I cannot say that it's top because whenever you have some parabolic move on the way up to call a top is a fool's errant but I do see that things are very very overextended for gold and that brings potential opportunity here because if you look at the last two cycles over here in terms of what gold is doing the the entire narrative is not that the the economy is so scary that gold is where you need to put your money as a hedge. That's that's not the narrative. The narrative is this. There's increase in global liquidity. The first thing that's going to run up is gold. And whenever it's done running up, usually rotates into other things. That's what happened the last two cycles.
Here you can see how IWM over here finally have a breakout. Before it had a breakout, gold went up, right? And then when you have IBM breakout here, rotation happens. Gold consolidate sideways over here for two years. Do nothing until it does something again with increasing in liquidity over here until liquidity is starting to hit the top over here. wants to rotate into other things to continue the liquidity cycle. That's exactly what happened, right? I remember gold topped here around July or August 2020. Everybody is super bullish on gold because inflation, inflation, world government is going to print money. Buy gold, buy gold, buy gold. That's their narrative. What happened? Consolidation do nothing for two years when the IBM just kept going up.
What do I think is happening right now? I think gold is the topic of interest here because things have just kind of gone parabolically on the way up here. What's happening? Well, Russell 2000 on the verge of basically having a breakout and gold looks very very toppy. You are you talking about potential rotation from you know gold to IWM or gold to Bitcoin? gold to Bitcoin, right? Ballinger band squeeze over here last time, whatever that happened before bull expansion, gold was topping. What do we have here? Ballinger band squeeze over here before potentially expansion and parabolic move. What's happening right now? Maybe gold is topping too.
Looking at same thing here, Ethereum, right? Ethereum breakout back test the um resistance zone over here. Gold tops, right? Ethereum had the double bottom over here. Ethereum has a double bottom over here. Break out above back test the um resistance zone here. Flip it in the support. What's happening? Maybe gold's topping. Maybe we're going to end up having a little bit rotation here. You ask me where the liquidity is going to come to pump Bitcoin, pump IWM, pump uh pump um Ethereum. Well, the liquidity is right here. It's it's all right there. And there's more liquidity coming.
By the way, to kind of finalize some of the other talks here because I don't want to make this video another like, you know, 80 minute video. This thing is something that nobody's really talking about. Nobody cares about Cathy Woods. Nobody cares about the ARK fund. You remember the ARC fund was all the hype, right? Especially back over here when everything just kept on going up a lot higher for longer, right? Everybody's talking about ARC. Why do people stop talking about ARC or why do people not talk about ARC anymore? Well, because of what happened here in 2021 and 2022 with the great deleveraging here. But the thing is this there's increase in liquidity that is entering the system it goes into both gold and arc. This is what I'm saying is referring to I don't think that this increase in gold prices is because things are looking so bad and people are looking to hatch. I think this is just a natural part of the bull cycle where you have liquidity going into gold with a blowoff top and you end up having a rotation from gold to other riskcon assets such as cavywood's arc fund right which is the reason why Tesla is finally doing pretty well because gold is maybe potentially topping over here and you can also see that arc fund also whenever that rotation happens you have a breakout above this channel it just takes off what's happening right now. This channel is lasting longer. There is a longer cycle here as far as I'm concerned and the breakout just happened. What happened last time when the breakout happened, it kept on going up here for close to a whole year. We just had the breakout that just happened a couple months ago, like maximally maybe four months ago. That could keep going on for another 6 months to a year, right?
I I just don't see what other people are seeing. If you worry about the four-year cycle, that's what you sound like to me. I'm late. I'm late. I'm very very late. That that's I I don't know whether or not that's true. But you can certainly run around like a rabbit and worry about it. Um and I'm not going to stop you from doing it. I'm just going to share my thoughts and tell you what I think. Anyway, I can say this other thing here and I'm probably going to end the show. Palanteer broke above the 0.786 and 0.86 lock fib here. I had basically famously said that whenever it breaks about these higher fib level and this is based on analysis from the great mass speed as well like he really is a master. If you don't follow the great mass speed follow him um he really is a master at charts and at cycles. When I saw this happening, on top of when I see the Ballinger band starting to finally actually expanding down to the downside, I thought this thing is going to keep going for like 12 months. I'm seeing that across the board with a lot of stocks with a lot of, you know, um, really hyped up stocks that a lot of people are kind of talking about like Iron, like Cypher. I'm not going to show all of them. They've just kind of started kind of hit this phase right around here and they can keep going on for another year or so and see how high they get. I think things are just kind of getting started for a lot of the other assets that can take at least 6 months to a year. I don't think we're very very late. I don't like to chase. I don't like to leverage. I just want to buy low and hold until I see signs for exhaustion, which is another video for another time. I just wanted to share with you all these thoughts here that I shared with you last week and in a refined way. And uh I I think things are playing out more or less kind of how I'm seeing it. And I'm pretty excited about what is there to come moving forward. I hope I'm right. I can't guarantee that I am. And I don't really, you know, want to scream that I'm right and you're all wrong because it serves no purpose at all. I'm here to share ideas. I think looking at a number of assets together and a number of markets together, including international market, gives me more clue. I think all these things are lining up for a higher move for risk on assets like Bitcoin, Ethereum, Dogecoin, altcoins, Russell 2000, and a lot of speculative stocks, including the ARC fund that might keep going on for maybe another 6 to 12 months. We will see.
Anyway, thank you so much for listening, guys. The last thought I have is this. I don't really claim that, you know, the fundamentals are going to check out. All I know is that your rationality can last for longer than you can remain solvent. And if you're looking to short based on fundamentals during a bull market, best of luck to you. Anyway, thank you so much for listening. Have a good one, guys. side.