Transcription
Hello team and welcome this Sunday, September 21, 2025. So, that's it, we've had this interest rate cut and yet on the crypto ecosystem, we've had no reaction that we wanted. There was a first reaction where we thought we could quickly go lower with a nice wick, do a big sell the news and recover maximum liquidity. Or else there was a second scenario, it was to explode, have a truly bullish reaction and truly explode upwards. Instead, what did we get? We got neither. We can see it here, we've only had stagnation and we've been neither up nor down. We've only reinforced liquidity on both sides. Which means that at the cryptocurrency market level, we are in uncertainty. We can see it here on the fear and greed index, we are in neutral. We're leaning a tiny bit towards fear but we're in neutral. We're a bit lost. We don't know if we're going to go higher or if we're going to go lower. And so when we don't know, well, what should we do? Well, we need to concretely see what's happening around us. And what's happening around us? Well, it's traditional finance. We know well that we are carried by traditional finance and cryptocurrency, even if it's institutionalizing, for the moment it's only a secondary market. So what we've seen this week, cryptocurrency has done absolutely nothing, while traditional finance has exploded. We've made ATH after ATH on both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq, as we can see here, and at the gold level, we are also at the highs. So I'm going to switch to daily here and you know we have the Global M2 and many people are asking me, well, where is the liquidity going? Well, the liquidity, I already said it in last Sunday's daily, it's currently going into the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq, so into traditional finance, and BTC is not benefiting from it yet. We'll come back to Global M2 later. So, you know, I often tell you that the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq perform first and then the liquidity will flow into BTC. Well, it's not exactly like that. We also have, just like for our cryptocurrency market, well, traditional finance also has a sort of altcoin, and altcoins are the Russell 2000, which we see here. And what does that represent? It represents the 2000 companies with a smaller capitalization, much smaller of course, especially compared to the S&P 500 which represents the 500 largest companies. So we will consider the Russell 2000 as the altcoins of traditional finance. And historically, we can see that there is a transfer of liquidity from the S&P 500 to the Russell 2000, and then from the Russell 2000 to BTC. So you see the step between the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq and BTC and the Russell 2000. And what can we observe currently? Well, it's that it's exploding. Look at this. It doesn't stop exploding, exploding, exploding. And we've even gone to seek the previous high here. There's a small rejection here. But we should continue to see the Russell 2000 explode. And then when the Russell 2000 starts to stagnate and fall, where will it go? It will go into our friend BTC, and look at the exact correlation. Here, we see the Russell 2000 in March 2020 exploding, exploding, exploding, exploding until January 2021. Afterwards, what do we do? Big stagnation here, and then we corrected a bit during this big stagnation here, so January 2021. If we look at what happened with our friend BTC, we see that here, look, January 2021, we were here. So we see that we had a small drop here, and then from February 2021, so a month later, we exploded and we made the last bullish phase. Well, after that, I'm not necessarily counting this one, but here the first big big push we made here, it happened from March 2021. And you see while waiting for this, what were we doing? Well, we were purely in stagnation. And purely in stagnation, what does that mean? It means that there was precisely this transfer of liquidity that was going from the Russell 2000 into BTC. And so currently, we are in the process of making this rally. We risk continuing to explode, and when the Russell 2000 starts to stagnate here, we should have this transfer of liquidity that will happen into our friend BTC. So for the moment, am I worried about what's happening with BTC? Well, not really. We are in neutrality. There is a lot of liquidity below, a lot of liquidity above. So no worries clearly for the moment. We need to understand the principles of liquidity again, and liquidity will flow into our friend BTC at one point or another. Moreover, we must not forget, look, I'm on the USDT market cap, that we are always, always, always printing more liquidity in our crypto ecosystem. All these USDT are invested somewhere or will be invested somewhere. So no need to worry about that. I think without any problem that BTC will go to make new ATHs and that we will go to make a mega parabola. Well, after that, you've understood that in the short term, it's very difficult to know if we will explode quickly upwards or if we will capture all this liquidity pool. Because yes, we are loaded, loaded, loaded with liquidity. If I had to tell you, well, where is the market interest currently, well clearly to the south, we have a lot of interest in going to seek liquidity to the south, both on BTC and also exactly on Ethereum. I remind you that we have a lot, a lot of liquidity below, and now we even have significant liquidity below $4,000, around $3,900 on Ethereum. So we have a lot of interest in coming to capture all this liquidity. If we want to see it, it's not complicated. Look here at the liquidations. Look at how much liquidation there is to the south. If we were to go down to just $106,000, there would be $19 billion in liquidation. Huge interest. If we were to make a new ATH and go for example to $126,000, well we would take about $7 billion, almost $8 billion in liquidation. So where is the market interest? Clearly to go and seek all this liquidity before potentially moving on. That's why I keep telling you that we can potentially go and seek this liquidity quickly, and moreover, we would kill two birds with one stone since you can well imagine that if we make a relatively strong wick to capture maximum liquidity to the south, what will we do? We will do the same with Ethereum. Ethereum, I remind you, follows BTC very strongly, as does the entire market anyway. So if there is a relatively significant wick to go and seek liquidity to the south on BTC, Ethereum will do exactly the same and to capture maximum liquidity itself. You see it here too, if we go back to the $4,000 level, we will capture over $12 billion in liquidity. If we go for $5,000, we are at $7 billion in liquidity. So again, the market interest is to go and seek liquidity to the south. There is still a lot of correlation to go and seek all this liquidity. Now, will we do it? Again, the market is always unpredictable, but the market interest, I remind you, is to go and seek liquidity. And liquidity is currently to the south. Also, as we saw, there is a decoupling between traditional finance and BTC, but often the decoupling happens upwards. However, when traditional finance falls, BTC is very often correlated and falls as well. So now, since we are making ATH after ATH in traditional finance, on the S&P 500 and on the Nasdaq, all it takes is one week in the red, meaning a strong fall, for BTC to follow the movement and therefore fall sharply as well. And that's good because next week, we have a lot of important elements. We have the Manufacturing PMI, we have the Services PMI, we even have Uncle Powell's speech on Tuesday at 6:35 PM. On Thursday, we also have the quarterly GDP, jobless claims, housing sales, and on Friday, very importantly, we will have the Core PCE. So we have an extremely busy week with news. I remind you that all of this is extremely, extremely watched by the Fed and by investors, of course, in general. And so if the numbers are bad, for example, I can assure you that if the Manufacturing PMI, the Services PMI are lower than the forecast here, I can assure you that there will be a strong correction. The market will react very strongly downwards. And if traditional finance reacts downwards, well we will also react downwards on BTC. In short, all this to say that if traditional finance crashes next week, there is a high probability that we will also go lower on BTC. What would be even worse is if tonight or during the day, you know that on Sundays, we can have volatility, we go to make a new high here and we finally go to seek the short RLZ, well there will be even more probability of going next week to seek much lower. Why? Because well, firstly on the CME, so the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, if we go higher, we will create a CME gap here and it will be a bearish gap. Meaning we will have to go down to fill it. And secondly, the fact of coming into this major resistance that we've been waiting for for some time, and I remind you that this is a short re-accumulation zone, well the price will strongly reject it, and if traditional finance falls at the same time, I can assure you that we will go and seek liquidity to the south. But at least, I would like us to do that, to capture the liquidity and finally be done with it. Now, that's it, we see here that we've had an interest rate cut. So generally when we start to have a good interest rate cut, we have a continuation of interest rate cuts. And I know that Uncle Powell's speech wasn't very, very reassuring about future rate cuts. However, the market is already pricing in future rate cuts. And is the market right to already price in future rate cuts? Well, clearly, I think so. Why? Because Jerome Powell, I remind you, doesn't necessarily have a choice. He talks about unemployment, he talks about fighting inflation, and all that, but the fact is that I already showed you that in the end, it's the banks that need to buy money cheaper. And how can they buy money cheaper? Well, simply by allowing them to borrow at a lower rate and therefore by lowering key interest rates. And so look, let's go back to this little diagram. I remind you what this diagram is: it's when the Fed helps the banks, meaning it injects money to help the banks to avoid, for example, a collapse, to avoid a bank going bankrupt. In short, they are there to save banks in particular. And look here, where there were huge injections, huge movements, when was that? Well, it was for 2019 and 2020, of course, the year of Covid. And it's extremely simple because look at the correlation where we saw a lot of aid, this was in hundreds of billions because we are in billions. Yes. Hundreds of billions. Of course, we had to help the banks as much as possible, otherwise there would have been a real catastrophe. And so we can see here that the Fed helped the banks a lot, a lot. And so we see that it started well in 2019 and then continued until 2020, and then it decreased until it stopped helping banks from July-August 2021. But on the other hand, we see that in 2019 already, banks were helped a lot. And strangely, look at the same time what happened here in 2019, well, rates were lowered. They were lowered. Why, in your opinion? Well, simply because the Fed saw that the banks were in difficulty and that they had to be helped. So we lowered rates very sharply. We lowered them, we lowered them, we lowered them to where? Well, to zero, meaning money was completely free. That way, at least the banks could truly get out of it. And you see here we find ourselves at the beginning of April 2020, and we already see that in April here, the Fed was helping banks much, much less. They helped them a little bit more until July 2020, and then it was flat calm, banks no longer needed the Fed. Well, why? Simply because money was free here. Money cost nothing. So that's why they say it was free money. Well, today, we are in a similar situation. That is to say, of course, it's not as huge as what happened in 2019 and 2020. Of course, we don't have the Covid crisis, but it's still relatively significant. If I go back here to the end of June 2025, you see that the Fed helped banks a lot here. And if I have to zoom in, look, I'll switch to 1 year here and I'll zoom in at this level. And you see that well, this is nothing. We help a little bit, a little bit, but here you see that even very recently, here on September 15th, so it's very recent, the Fed had to help the banks again. And so, well, what does that mean? Well, it means that banks truly need these rate cuts. So Jerome Powell will continue to lower rates. Why? Well, he will lower rates simply to save the banks. Again. So he's giving us a bit of a smokescreen. He tells us it's against unemployment. He tells us it's against inflation, but the truth is he just needs to lower rates. So he really has no choice, and he needs to lower rates quickly to help banks as much as possible. So there's no real concern about that, and I think Uncle Powell will indeed continue to lower rates. Now, and we know it well, there is the Global M2 here where we are still expecting this strong rise. So, well, it will truly depend on what happens in traditional finance. If next week we fall very sharply, we risk falling very sharply here, and then we'll have to see. Do we have a real strong rebound? And do we have, you see, this big wick here, will we make it on BTC? And will we explode everything before having this bearish correction on BTC? I remind you, we had a scenario, oops, I'll delete the Global M2, we had a scenario where we could pump, go make a new ATH, and then either we came back to the previous highs here, or we went to seek liquidity lower. Clearly, if we haven't gone to seek liquidity before making this pump, then we will probably do this scenario. Indeed, we will go and seek liquidity and then potentially move on. Because yes, look, something positive is that the Global M2, if you look closely, has resumed a trend. And that's what I told you we wanted to see after this drop. I told you that we had to go back up, and that if we went back up, it was extremely positive. Why? For our end of the year, because look here, I've already correlated the lag we have on the Global M2 with the price of BTC, and so if we look here, well, when will we arrive? We will arrive in November-December, and therefore we should have an acceleration upwards on BTC again. In any case, the signs are there, we went to make a new high here, and we will continue to watch and follow if we continue to push. If we push very strongly here, it could be very, very positive, and possibly we will have a bullish phase that will continue a bit, and maybe it won't stop in December, but maybe we will push until January, and why not February. We'll see, again, but the essential thing is to see if the Global M2 continues to push or not. Of course, it won't just be the Global M2 to watch, but we'll see all that in future dailies. So you have a bit of the scenario on BTC, you've understood a bit what's happening with rates, and so clearly it's likely to go down, and next week will be extremely important. We'll see the news, if we go lower, that's it, we stop making ATHs on the S&P 500 and on the Nasdaq, and we go to seek liquidity a bit lower, BTC will probably follow, the Russell 2000 will also follow, make a small correction, and then we will probably move up again, both on the Russell 2000 and on BTC. But in any case, you've also understood that there is a lot, a lot of interest in going lower because there is a lot, a lot of liquidity, both on BTC and on Ethereum. And this liquidity, personally, if we could go and get it before moving on, I would prefer it because if we get rid of this liquidity afterwards, rather than coming to get it a bit later, well, we will stop, hop, I can delete this one. We will stop at these old highs in terms of correction before moving on. That is to say, we could go and make $130,000-$140,000. We come back here to the $120,000 level, and then we leave again to make the last bullish phase to perhaps reach $150,000-$180,000. In short, we'll see. But I would prefer us to come back here to the old highs rather than going to seek all this liquidity and coming back almost to the $100,000 level. Of course, I'm not there. I'm looking a bit at what's happening on the market, and I'm establishing the scenarios that seem plausible to me. That's it, team, for this daily. I hope you enjoyed it. I hope it helped you understand the market globally. If so, don't hesitate to hit the like button and leave a maximum of comments. And for those who haven't subscribed to the channel yet, well, don't hesitate to click the subscribe button. You know that it supports the channel and that it makes me extremely happy. Tell me what you think too, if you think the scenarios I'm giving are completely valid or if you think they are completely to be thrown away, also give me your scenarios. It always makes me very, very happy to read you. In the meantime, I wish you an excellent Sunday and I'll see you tomorrow in the daily, and above all, above all, stay curious. Ciao!