Transcription
I'm going to give you my 10 most likely running back breakouts, going from the least likely to the most likely. Now, how I'm going to define a potential running back breakout is a running back that has not turned 26 years old yet and a running back that has not finished as a top 20 RB in points per game.
Some running backs that I'm incredibly excited about this season that I think will be much better than last year are Genty, Amari Hampton, and Cam Scataboo. But all those guys have already broken out in my definition. So, we're not going to talk about them in this video. I'm going to talk about the true breakouts.
Guys like Katon Mitchell. Yes, Katon Mitchell's coming in at 10. I'm not going to waste your time too too much with this dude because obviously he is the least likely. But I do need to talk about him a bit because this is a running back that is only 24 years old. He's going into his fourth NFL season. We have seen the efficiency with Keaton Mitchell early on in his NFL career be insane. We can go back to his 2023 season where he averaged 8.4 yards per carry as a rookie. Yes, he had about 49 and a half rushing yards per game off of fewer than six carries per game. And then this past season in Baltimore, he averaged 5.8 yards per attempt.
And if we look at the contract that he got from the Los Angeles Chargers, it's actually pretty damn good. Keep in mind, just for these running back contracts, running backs don't get paid much in the NFL. Now, obviously, they get paid much more than you do, much more than I do. I would love this Katon Mitchell contract, but for reference, we're looking at Rashad White in Washington getting paid like a million and a half dollars, right? Running backs don't get paid much. Um, Katon Mitchell, on the other hand, just got a two-year $9.25 million deal from the Los Angeles Chargers. $5 million guaranteed at signing in comparison to Rashad White at 1.5. I'm sure y'all heard this story, but the new offensive coordinator coming over from Miami, he printed out Katon Mitchell's face, put it on the wall in his office, and put "Wanted: Go get me this guy." Right? So, it's a perfect narrative for people to get real excited about. I'm going to be honest with you, though. I've heard the comps of, "Oh, this is going to be like the prime Moorer, Devon Aan season with Amari Hampton and Keaton Mitchell being the one-two punch for the Los Angeles." That's not going to be the case. Amarian Hampton is a bellcow. Amarian Hampton is an elite level running back. Katon Mitchell doesn't come close to that, but Keaton Mitchell could be a massive breakout if we were to get an injury to Marian Hampton ahead of him. So, I really don't want you to be stressing too much about him unless again we were to see Hampton go down and then all of a sudden he will be the top waiver wire pickup of the season.
Now, let's go over to Woody Marks. Woody Marks again, very unlikely for us to see the breakout here either. I would almost say that he is also a pure handcuff play if we were to see an injury to David McGomery. I would say the ceiling is higher with Katon Mitchell. Woody Marks is going to give you a higher floor though, just because I actually think that he is going to get involved as a receiver even with a healthy David McGomery in Houston. But he's also already 25 and a half years old. Like it's funny, he is over a year older than Katon Mitchell despite being in the league for two years less. But again, he's just going to be the handcuff to David McGomery. Technically, I want to throw him on the list of the top 10 running back breakouts, but I still think it's very unlikely where we're at here.
Now, let's go over to Jakori Kroski Merritt. I don't want to spend much time here either because I feel like we've talked about Jakori Kroski Merritt a decent amount over the past few videos. is a rookie running back that comes in, has all the hype in the world, uh, doesn't do much with it, right? He's the running back 43 in points per game. He's sitting here at 4.6 yards per attempt. So, the overall efficiency looks good, but the receiving production is garbage. He averages fewer than one target per game. So, I would say the ceiling's going to be a little bit capped with Jakori Kroski Merritt. Maybe the floor is high because I would expect him to be in a running back by committee with Rashad White.
Now, one thing that's going to be an interesting note, of course, as we go through all these running backs is making sure that you're monitoring the price with them. Like a good example of where this will matter is with our next running back in Jonathan Brooks. So, if I'm looking at the updated ADP from the ADP consensus sheet on flockfantasy.com right now, Jonathan Brooks has an ADP of pick 138 in Sleeper drafts, 106 in ESPN, 98 in Yahoo, 102 in Underdog, and then 77 in the FFPC. So, ultimately, how I would view this is if you're using our draft sheets on flockfantasy.com for your Sleeper drafts, you're probably going to see Jonathan Brooks being a massive value. Whereas if you're in an FFPC draft, if you're in an Underdog draft, it's maybe a little bit tougher to take him there.
Now, of course, I want to point out to you all those draft sheets on flockfantasy.com are already live. We have over 50 variations to match your exact league settings. Whether you're playing in non-PPR, half-PPR, full-PPR, Superflex, Tight End Premium, um, one quarterback, whatever it may be, you could play in a league where you start one flex spot, two flex spots. We have draft sheets made custom for you, as well as live draft assistance. You'll get all that for your redraft leagues for only $34 with the FlockFantasy.com season pass. And if you use code flock when you sign up to flockfantasy.com, I'm going to be answering your questions for free as well during the live streams I'm going to be doing every single night during the season.
But as we go through and look at this Jonathan Brooks profile, it is impossible to say anything about him from an NFL perspective. We have not seen him do anything in his NFL career. He's only been active for three games. He played 8% of the snaps in week 12 of his rookie season and he had two carries for seven rushing yards. In week 13, he had six carries for 18 rushing yards. And then in week 14, he had one carry for negative three rushing yards and he tore his ACL yet again. So now Jonathan Brooks is coming off of two ACL tears. He took the entire 2025 season off. But if we go through and look at the last time that he had meaningful work in a real football game, we have to go back to his time at the University of Texas. Now Hook 'em Horns, you know, I'm going to root for my University of Texas players, but let's go through and let's look at this game log. The last time he had over 20 rushing attempts in a game, or even 10 rushing attempts in a game, was 2023, November 11th. That is almost 3 years ago at this point. So, he was a phenomenal back at the University of Texas. He was so good that he went into the NFL with a torn ACL. Obviously, no combine testing numbers. Obviously, teams aren't able to get him in the building and run him around at practice. and he still managed to be a second-round NFL draft pick. That is how good he was. And at the same time, he's incredibly young. He's 23 years old. Keep in mind, he just turned 23. We just talked about Jakory Kroski Merritt being 25 and a half. Woody Marks 25 and a half. So, he is years younger than some running backs that were just rookies last season.
Now, with all that in mind, he has very little competition with Chuba Hubbard. So Woody Marks, no shot he jumps McGomery. Katon Mitchell, no shot he jumps Amari Hampton. Well, I think it's unlikely Jonathan Brooks jumps to Bahub to be the straight-up starting running back for the Carolina Panthers. It's definitely a hell of a lot more likely than Woody Marks. So, we're going to go ahead and we are going to put him here at our seven mark.
Now, moving to our sixth running back, I want to talk Blake Corum. Now, I had Blake Corum on our do not draft list early in the offseason. I feel like his price has declined just a bit though. And honestly, I'm starting to see the vision a little. I want to keep the baseline expectation for Blake Corum that he is a handcuff running back. With almost all the running backs we've talked about today, maybe in a baseball draft, you randomly get a usable week if he scores a touchdown. But in your ESPN league, in your Yahoo League, how are you going to know when to put him in your starting lineup if Kyren Williams is healthy? Because if we can go through and look at his game log and games in which Kyren Williams has played, at the very most he peaked out at 46% of the snaps this past season. He has never played 50% of the snaps in any game in his NFL career. Right? So even though he expanded his role as time went on, even though at the end of this past season, we saw the rushing touchdown upside for Blake Corum, he is still just a premium handcuff back that if we were to see a Kyren Williams injury, then all of a sudden that's when you can start him.
Now, I will talk about the absolute upside case. If Kyren were to go down, Blake Corum probably has a higher ceiling than any other running back that we've talked about on this list so far because the Rams have a phenomenal offensive line. They have a great coaching staff, great quarterback play, and we've seen Blake Corum be a very efficient running back at the NFL level. This past season, he just had 5.1 yards per carry and a 25% juke rate with goal line usage. So, that's incredible. The only drawback I would have is no receiving role whatsoever. And I would say you can never start this dude with a healthy Kyren Williams. So, you have to understand that you are drafting a premium handcuff.
Now, let's go to the range of running backs that could potentially win their backfield. Kyle Manungai could potentially win the backfield for the Chicago Bears. Looking at his price currently, there is a decent little range on the consensus ADP sheet. Like in Yahoo drafts, he's going at pick 88. In Sleeper drafts, he's going at 90. And in ESPN drafts, he's going at pick 99. Right? So you are looking at this dude being an eighth, ninth round pick almost regardless. And with Kyle Manungai, we saw an incredible ceiling in the game in which DeAndre Swift missed this past year against the Cincinnati Bengals. And that was Kyle Manungai had 26 carries. He had five targets and he was everything for the Chicago Bears offense. Now if we're looking at the season-long numbers for him, they really aren't anything that special. Like obviously DeAndre Swift is a much better receiving back between the two of them. Kyle Manungai was a pretty efficient rusher where he had 4.6 yards per attempt. If we're looking at his prospect profile though, this wasn't a great prospect coming into the NFL, right? It would be very different if he was Trevian Henderson. Obviously, we're rocking the Henderson jersey. We'll talk about him later on where we can go back and look at Henderson at Ohio State and go, "Hey, this guy had all the pedigree in the world. This guy had a ton of juice coming into the NFL. We saw the flashes. Let's buy into it." here. We definitely saw the flashes at the NFL level, but because he didn't have the team investment with super high draft capital, because it's not like he had a lot of pedigree coming in, I I would be hesitant to assume that he beats out DeAndre Swift, but it wouldn't be the most surprising thing in the world. And obviously, this is a phenomenal offense to be the starting running back here. We already saw Kyle Manungai would be a must-start option if he could beat him out.
Now, RJ Harvey, I think, could actually just be the straight-up starter and be the favorite to be the starter in Denver. I know this is a very hot take here because if we go through and if we look at just the consensus across the board right now, how most people view things, most people view JK Dobbins as the starting running back for the Denver Broncos. RJ Harvey being a compliment to JK Dobbins, especially as a receiver. In my opinion, RJ Harvey is a better receiving back than Dobbins. And then you also have Jonah Coleman that could potentially step in for Dobbins as the starting back. But nobody's giving that chance to RJ Harvey. And if we look at RJ Harvey last season, the efficiency was really bad. This is what people hate. One, he looked really bad on the field with film. All the film guys absolutely hate RJ Harvey. Two, the 3.7 yards per carry, obviously not ideal. The 6.1 yards per target, though, I actually like a ton. And I wouldn't be that surprised if we see R.J. Harvey lock down the receiving role in this Denver Broncos backfield. And keeping in mind that the Denver Broncos arguably have the best offensive line in the NFL. Even if Dobbins splits this backfield 50/50, even if Jonah Coleman comes in and spells Dobbins, I wouldn't be surprised if R.J. Harvey is startable without a Dobbins injury. And we've never seen Dobbins make it through an entire season healthy. So R.J. Harvey in my mind has a higher floor than these guys like Kyle Manungai, Blake Corum, Jonathan Brooks. Like I could very easily see him being startable even with a healthy JK Dobbins. I would only question the ceiling because say we were to get a Kyren Williams injury, then at that point Blake Corum's everything in Los Angeles. Now if we were to get an injury instead to JK Dobbins, RJ Harvey is still probably in a backfield by committee with Jonah Coleman.
Now, Breece Hall's going to be our next running back. Shout out Mr. Danny Lad for spending 100% of your FAB on him in the Flock league. Can't wait to see you at Denny's, buddy. But anyway, looking at Breece Hall, very tight range of where he's being drafted on flockfantasy.com, Sleeper, ESPN, Yahoo, Underdog. He is anywhere from pick 56 in Underdog drafts down to pick 61 in CBS drafts. So this is on any draft platform, a late fifth and early sixth round pick. Now, film guys don't like Breece Hall. At least from what I've heard, they've really questioned his ability to break tackles and play through contact. I've almost heard that if he gets touched, he's going down almost immediately. Now, with that in mind, if we go back and look at his prospect profile coming into the NFL, while this wasn't a running back that had a ton of draft pedigree, using the FSE prospect database on flockfantasy.com, we can see that Hall and Cam Scatterboo since the year 2016 were the two highest graded running backs that went in round four of the NFL draft. So, even though he fell late in the NFL draft, he still had very compelling things about his prospect profile. He was an elite level athlete at the NFL combine. And I do want to point out here, if we're looking at what he was able to do in year one, well, it wasn't spectacular. At least he got on the field, right? I mean, he did have 83 carries. He had 14 targets, which to me demonstrates that the team trusted him to some extent to be willing to trade away Tank Bigsby and to have Hall as the second complimentary running back to Travis Etienne. And now that you no longer have Etienne, the backfield's going to be Hall and Chris Rodriguez. You go back and you look at Chris Rodriguez's entire NFL career. He's an uninspiring prospect and he's had zero receiving chops through his entire career. So, I would view Hall at the very minimum as the running back that's going to be catching the balls in Jacksonville. And also he has the upside case to be the starter as an elite level athlete and a Liam Cohen offense that we've seen make Bucky Irving a league winner, that we've seen make Travis Etienne a league winner. So the situation is perfect. The depth chart is nothing to be afraid of at all. If I were trying to figure out where Hall fits onto my roster, I would take him on a team in which maybe I'm loaded with wide receivers early and I need to swing for the fences on a running back to go into my RB2 slot because I think there's an extremely wide range here where if you told me Hall was a top 10 running back in fantasy this year, I wouldn't be surprised at all. And honestly, if you told me he was unstartable and Chris Rodriguez was the guy getting the majority of the work, that also wouldn't surprise me that much either.
Now, going over to two running backs that are priced as if they're almost guaranteed to break out. Also, round five picks, just more expensive than Hall. Let's talk about Quinshan Judkins first. Now, Judkins on some draft platforms is a round four pick. Right? CBS, he has an ADP of 43. ESPN, he has an ADP of 46. On other draft platforms, he's going in the fifth round. Like Yahoo, he is going at pick 57.
Now, I'm going to make sure that I record a video talking through the best offensive lines in the NFL and the worst offensive lines in the NFL. So, if you haven't already, please just make sure you subscribe. That will come out shortly. But from all the resources I'm seeing at the moment, Quinshan Judkins and the Cleveland Browns offensive line, um, it it doesn't look like it's going to be a great scenario. The Browns look like they are possibly going to have the worst offensive line in the league this season. Obviously, even a casual like myself, I understand the Browns lost a ton of offensive linemen in free agency. Now, yes, they've gone through and they've replaced those offensive linemen in the NFL draft. And maybe that's going to be really good for Quinshan Judkins in the long term as this offensive line meshes and in 2027 and beyond when they are NFL ready. But the concern is in the short term here, if you're Quinshan Judkins and you're running behind the league's worst offensive line and we go back and look at your starting role last year and what it led to and you only had 12 receiving yards per game with 2.6 targets per contest, I would be concerned. I think he's an incredibly talented running back. There's a reason expert Nathan Schmidt took this dude in the fifth round when he was still in jail. But the situation may be too hard to overcome for a running back that's not going to catch the ball. I wouldn't be surprised at all if he's just fine for a fifth round pick this year. Um, like he's gonna give you a floor for sure, but in a full PPR format, I would be surprised if he was a top five running back.
Now, a running back that I have drafted a lot of, and honestly, I may be swinging for the fences in the Flock League this year. In my own league, it's $100,000 to first place, and I may need to do something drastic. And Trevian Henderson may be that drastic swing. Here's the deal. Trevian Henderson right now has a wide range of where he's being drafted. In Sleeper drafts, it's the end of the fourth round. In Yahoo drafts, it's the end of the fifth round. But essentially, if it was me, I would be ranking him as an early fifth round pick for the time being. And let's think about the other running backs that are going in that range. Two guys we just talked about. Quinshan Judkins, who's running behind the worst offensive line in the league, and the Cleveland Browns offense. I don't really know what the ceiling is there from a running back perspective, especially for one that's not going to catch the ball. And then also Breece Hall, a round four NFL draft pick that had what, like 300 rushing yards in his rookie season. So, if I get to take Trevian Henderson in the same round as those guys, a rookie running back that had 900 rushing yards in year one, that had over 220 receiving yards, that is playing for the New England Patriots, that have now a vertical element with A.G. Brown potentially making the stacked boxes a little bit easier for Trevian Henderson this next season. That is a scenario in which I'm willing to swing for the fences. That is a scenario in which I see the upside play here, especially for a running back that, keep in mind, in the Flock League last year, he went at the 34 turn. Remember the hype that we had for rookie season Trevian Henderson before we knew how good Drake May was, before we knew how good this offense was because he was that special of a prospect and he had those massive plays in the preseason. And then what did we see early in his NFL career? Um, early in his rookie season, we saw him as a running back that wasn't startable. Rhamondre Stevenson was the clear starter for New England. Then what happened later on? Oh, Rhamondre Stevenson got hurt and we saw this ceiling of what if the New England Patriots transitioned from Stevenson to Trevon Henderson. If you look at the player comparison tool on flockfantasy.com, you throw in Trevon Henderson and you put with and without Rhamondre. He played three games without Rhamondre Stevenson this past year. And in those three games, he averaged 15 and a half rush attempts per contest. He averaged four targets per game, so about 20 opportunities a game. And he averaged 24 points per game. He averaged almost six yards per carry. He averaged almost two touchdowns per game as well. He jumped up to being a top five running back in games he had no Rhamondre.
Now, I'm not an idiot. I'm not going to go rank him as a round one fantasy pick because the splits without Rhamondre Stevenson from his rookie season, cuz we can go and we can see what happened in the NFL playoffs when things mattered the literal most for the New England Patriots. And what happened then was New England decided to lean on Rhamondre Stevenson or Rhamondre Stevenson was the clear starting running back for New England. But for a fifth round cost, I'm willing to take the swing because I think the worst-case scenario, we get a running back by committee. He's somebody we throw in our flex. He's a headache. But best-case scenario is he's a top five running back in fantasy because I think he's been a great talent all along. He's had three games already in his NFL career with 28 or more fantasy points. Rhamondre Stevenson has already played five seasons and he's only had one. So, I think Trevian's the better, more dynamic back. Hopefully, he's improved this offseason and this coaching staff can trust him to be the feature because I'm all in on Trevian Henderson. I think it's a swing for the fences. I may strike out, but at least we have a shot of actually getting first place and not getting limited in week 16 how I always do. But, I think that's all I got for you. I really appreciate you. Again, if you want to win your fantasy football league, it's $34. The season pass gets you draft sheets for your exact league format, draft assistance for your Sleeper, ESPN, Yahoo leagues, and you get weekly rankings, rest of season rankings updated from all your favorite creators you watch on YouTube already. It's $34 on flockfantasy.com. And when you use code flock when you sign up, you're also going to get free questions that you can ask me in the live streams that I'm going to be doing every night during the year. But I really appreciate you and I really hope we get to see you out in the live stream later.