Transcription
[Music] Hello friends, I hope you are well, that you are in shape, that you are full of energy. Very happy to reconnect with you for this Bitcoin journal this Saturday, November 1st, 2025. And as we finished the month of October, I will do a monthly analysis today in addition to the daily analysis of October, which unfortunately ended in the red. Will the monthly analysis show something not good? Does it open the gates of hell for a bear market that will be a nuclear winter that could last between 1.5 and 2 years, even 2.5 years, or is everything okay for now? We will look at that. We will also take a quick look at the daily. It's 24 hours, it's rather green. Not much has happened since yesterday. So I will go through the daily quite quickly because it doesn't change much compared to the analysis I did in yesterday's video in the late afternoon. Regarding the ETFs, the week ended, well, slightly red, let's say rather for Bitcoin with here, well, almost slightly, it's almost a billion dollars in Bitcoin sales, so it's not slight. Ethereum is a bit lighter, it's almost neutral. So for now, the ETFs, well, it's investors like you and me. So even if some institutional investors are involved, there are quite a few people who sell as soon as things start to look not very, very good, knowing that the stock markets have not been very, very good for a few days now.
Now, regarding the altcoins here on the daily, we see the big nuclear candle of this month of October. Knowing that if you take the amplitude of the candle from wick to wick, hold on tight, we have about -45%, that's on average. The average of the top 125 altcoins is -45. Some have done -80 and others have done -20, you see. So it stings, huh. A huge candle with a huge wick. Will it be sustained? It remains possible. So for now, I will tell you, well, it doesn't smell bad at all. We even kept the Kumo, which is a big support here at 700 billion dollars, exactly, which is the average price over the last 9 months. If we start to close below the Kumo, it won't smell good. You see, like we did here in February 2025. We close below the Kumo, we will look for the Tenkan just below, or even the 50-day moving average, which has held up well, the 50-month moving average, which is the average price here of the top 125 altcoins over the last 50 months. We see that since we came out of the bear market, since we recovered it, we haven't broken it since. The following month, here in December 2023, we retested it, we held it. January 2024, we retested it, we held it. We retested it in July 2024, we held it. When I say held, when I say held, it means we closed above it. In August 2024, same, we closed above it. In September 2024, we closed above it. Look at me, these two months too, October, November 2024, we stayed above it. We retested it on April 1st, 2025. Well, and there we were not very far. So we understood well that altcoins could even take a -35% hit in general. And well, finally, it won't be, oh my god, the nuclear winter is starting because since we finished this bear market, we have retested it three times. You see, three times spaced out by almost 6 months to a year. The 50-month moving average, and as long as we hold it, it pushes and it pushes, you see. So here you could retest it, okay, it will bleed, but as long as it holds, well, it will push back.
Well, for now, as long as the Kumo here is not lost, it will be very good. If we have a month that breaks the Kumo here, it will be ugly. That is to say, if we have a November that does, say, a small -6-7%, it's not good. It means we could do a small -20% to look for, for example, the Tenkan here, you see. Well, but for now, we see, well, it's going very well, we are above the Kumo. Okay. Yes, we have a small drop here, we see on the RSI, a drop here on the MACD. So the momentum indicators, you say, well, it's a bit softer, but for now, there's nothing that says we're going to crash to the ground. If we draw the Fibos each time for each rise, we see that the market has always corrected the altcoins towards the reload zone. The reload zone holds, we push. We go to the reload zone, it holds, we push. Here, we made the wick on the reload zone. We went a little lower, it's not a big deal. We could do another tour of the reload zone like here. You see, if you want, it's like we fall and we go back up. We fall and we go back up. So here, we could do, we fall and we go back up. So we say, can we have November, December not very good? Yes, it remains possible, but it's not very rare. It's not, oh my god, bear market, that's it, pack your bags and go home. So you see, it could test the reload zone and go back up. So for now, there's nothing that says "Oh my god, that's it, we have to leave and come back in 2 years." No, not at all. Can there be a small correction, can November-December be not very good? It remains possible. But those who hold in the reload zone here, well, the reload zone is roughly, it's between -13% and -24%. Can the market go there? It remains possible to test the wick a bit. You see, like here, you see, it fell into the reload zone, then went back up, again, reload zone, and went up. So as long as the reload zone holds, well, it will go up again.
Well, so okay, loss of momentum here on the altcoins, but for now, nothing tells us it's an open bear market, nothing at all. On the daily, it doesn't change for now, it's very good. It's holding the 200-day moving average. Yesterday, we did the analysis, we were there, we are just above it, so nothing has changed at all regarding the structure. We are calmly waiting for the structure to continue, to evolve. Well, and for now, if you watch yesterday's video, there's no point in going back to it because it's exactly the same thing. I'm focusing more on the monthly, okay? Regarding our Bitcoin monthly here, you see that directly since we finished the bear market here, you see since the 50-month moving average was around, say, $25,000, well, finally, since we recovered it, if you want, we recovered the 50-month moving average, the 50 and the 200, believe me, well, for me, they are my favorites, they perform exceptionally well every time, you see that the 50-month moving average, we tried to recover it during the bear market around $22,000, it didn't want to, even here at $23,000, it didn't want to, and boom, March 2023, we finally recovered the 50-month moving average, we retested it, we retested it, we retested it, we retested it. It held, and boom, explosion. So you see, like for altcoins, the 50-month moving average was retested. Well, now, if you want to talk about a nuclear correction, well, it's on the 50 or 56,000 moving average. Roughly, a bear market can be around $56,000. It really hurts a lot. Now, for Bitcoin, we're not looking at the 50-month moving average, we're looking at the Kumo, which is this blue line, which is the average over the last 9 months for Bitcoin. Since we came out of the bear market, since we recovered the Kumo, well, here, the same month we recovered the 50-month moving average, it was in March 2023. Well, the Kumo has held every time. We retest it, it held, we retest it, it held, we retest it, it held, it held, it held, it held. The Kumo has only held, you see. And so we understand well that as long as this Kumo here, which I remind you is the average price over the last 9 months for Bitcoin, at $100,000, $100,300, as long as the Kumo at $100,000 holds well, you can remove the word bear market from your mind, there's no point in talking about it, you're just wasting brain cells, you see. On the other hand, a red candle, boom, that does this and blows up the Kumo, then we'll say "Ah, it's starting to stink." You see? Because the next support will be the Tenkan at $76,000. And the Tenkan, well, it's been a very long time since we've seen it, you see. A very, very long time. We saw it in August 2024 when Bitcoin was at $50,000. So, oh my god, does it stink? Well, no, not at all. As long as this Kumo here holds, like the Kumo held in April, February, March, April 2025, as the Kumo held in July, August, September 2024, as the Kumo held here, the same thing between March 2023 and September 2023, every time, as long as the Kumo holds, well, it will continue to push. So, is there anything ugly in the analysis? Well, no, because the Kumo is still there, it's even far away. So, can Bitcoin go to $100,000? Yes. Can it retest $100,000, make a candle body like this and a small wick that goes, say, a little lower to reach, for example, the gap at 92, you see, but you close above the Kumo, that would be the best. If it does that, well, it will go up again. If it gives us the red candle that blows up $100,000, then it stinks clearly.
Well, of course, one could say, oh, look at the momentum indicators on the RSI, it's decreasing. The MACD, well, but it's decreasing. Yes, clearly, there is a loss of momentum, there is a loss of energy in the market in general, whether it's for Bitcoin or altcoins, but it's not because we say "Oh my god, there's a loss of energy in the momentum indicators, that's it, pack your bags, go back to bear market." But no, it can last a month, 2 months, 3 months. We can spend November doing nothing, December a bit of red, January red, February, well, it can last 2, 3, 4 months to consolidate, to test the Kumo at $100,000, and then after a while, boom, it will take off again with a bit of momentum, you see. Well, so for now, there's nothing that makes it all ugly. There is a divergence on the RSI, but it was validated in January 2025. In January, well, I told you, beware altcoins, Bitcoin, divergence on the RSI, it stinks. Well, there were 3 months of not good, but then it took off again. For now, it's okay, there's no divergence yet validated. So the monthly momentum, well, listen, nothing special for now. There's nothing scary except perhaps this small drop in momentum on the indicators, but it can come back. Good bullish catalysts are enough. It can come back, knowing that we still have major bullish catalysts, which are, well, the rate cuts, which are there, but especially the end of quantitative tightening by the central bank, and if QE arrives, well, QE is monetary injection, money creation, and here we go. You see, that's not bad news either.
Regarding the daily, I won't go back to it, it's exactly like yesterday, the same analysis, it doesn't move. Why? Well, because yesterday we were there, and today we are right next to it. So Bitcoin is really doing nothing at all since yesterday. So we wait, I remind you that there are two major structures. Here, the big wave A, we are waiting for the end of wave B, which is perhaps not finished. Bitcoin can quite possibly go above $116,000, and then there is wave C, which will dip. Will wave C, which will dip, go to the monthly Kumo at $100,000? Well, it remains very possible. On the other hand, here, it is very possible that wave B is not finished with a small A, a small, a small C, a last higher high, and then it will fall. So two solutions. Either a last higher high after the monthly C, or it's directly the monthly C that starts. The monthly C is this, okay? Really from this big regular. Well, it's even the same analysis as yesterday. Go watch it on yesterday's video. It's the same, it doesn't change.
Regarding the long-term liquidation clusters accumulated over the last 30 days. We can see that it ate up to $100,000. So, can we go to the monthly Kumo at $100,000? Well, yes, clearly we can go there without a problem. There are about 7 to 8 billion to be sought. On the other hand, there is especially a lot of liquidity to the north, around 14 billion, $123,000, you see. So you will see that as soon as Bitcoin, poof, we give it a little rocket to start pushing it, and it will take off. So this is rather good to have a lot of liquidity to the north.
Regarding Ethereum monthly. So the monthly has its Kumo and its Tenkan together here at $3,173, meaning its biggest support is here. So, can it go to $3,000, approximately 173? It can go there. If it goes there, it's a -19%, approximately -17%. That means Bitcoin goes to $100,000, roughly, that's the idea. Since this is the first major monthly support for Ethereum, it could go there, okay, no problem. We have the 50-month moving average, which held up well since the end of the bear market, you see. On the other hand, at some point, it broke to reach the cloud, and then it took off again. So much the better. So now, Ethereum's major supports are here, around $3,100, 70, and then the 50-month moving average around $2,580, that will be reinforced concrete.
As with Bitcoin, Ethereum is suffering from a slight loss of momentum here on the indicators. On the other hand, Ethereum, well, it was this month, August 2025, this summer. Well, I told you, Ethereum has a nuclear bearish divergence. There you go. Now, many did not like that I said that in August. I think now they say, I should have listened to you, because Ethereum went to $3,400, and perhaps it's not finished, it could even go lower. Okay. Beware, there is an accumulation of divergences, something crazy. When Bitcoin went, Ethereum went to $4,950, everyone was talking about the moon, $5,000, $10,000, $60,000, flipping Bitcoin, Ethereum is the future, it will erase all other cryptos, Bitcoin. And I told you, beware, nuclear divergence on the monthly, it's likely to sting, and it stings, and you see that it's still suffering from a loss of momentum. So Ethereum is quite worrying. If Bitcoin were like this, it would also be worrying, clearly. Ethereum is worrying. And what's worrying is that Ethereum is number 2. If Ethereum starts to fall, well, there's a chance that altcoins will fall, and that Bitcoin won't be far behind, you see. So be careful with Ethereum, all these major divergences, the nuclear ones that are here, it's not very, very good. It could still deflate down to $3,170, perhaps even $2,500. But already here, it's not bad. If Ethereum goes to $3,180, it means that Bitcoin, where is our dear little Bitcoin? It's going to reach its Kumo at $100,000. Roughly, you see, Bitcoin breaks $100,000, it's heading for $76,000. That means that Ethereum, well, it breaks $3,100, it's heading for at least $2,500. That's kind of the idea. So, it's true that Ethereum's divergences here are a bit concerning, well, because these divergences, Bitcoin doesn't have them. So that's why we need to be a bit more cautious with Ethereum. I'm not saying "Oh my god, you have to sell everything, it's over." No, not at all. It's just that these divergences, they lit up in August. So those who laughed at me in August when I said divergence, well, it's not after correcting, say, a small -15% that, well, except for those who are very much in profit. So be careful, it's a bit more concerning. If Ethereum goes to its 50-month moving average at $2,500, well, you shouldn't be surprised. That's the thing, you see. It's that, well, yes, major divergence here on many indicators. So we wouldn't be surprised if it took a big hit. But if it goes to this level, if it goes to its 50-month moving average, say a small -33% or $2,500, well, that means that Ethereum, that Bitcoin is also taking a small hit. Perhaps it will go to its Tenkan at $76,000. Well, we will do the weekly analysis tomorrow with the major weekly structures. So Ethereum, it's true, well, I don't really like these divergences, in fact, I think every month since August, I've been saying the same thing. These major divergences are not very, very good.
On the daily, it doesn't change at all. It's the same structure. We have wave A here, we are waiting for the end of B to see wave C. Well, we would like Ethereum to validate this small regular to go to just a new higher high before falling again. It's like Bitcoin. So it's either the direct monthly C or a small higher high above $4,003 before falling again. It's the same analysis as yesterday. I'm going through it quickly. So, can Ethereum go to around $3,500 to pump a bit? Well, theoretically, it must not break $4,468. And so it has the right to go below $3,677 here before trying to make a new wave. And $3,177 is roughly the same as all of this. And like Bitcoin, there is a lot of liquidity to the north. Well, I'm going through it quickly, and besides, tomorrow I'll do the weekly analysis, we'll review these long-term liquidities again. I'm focusing especially on the monthly, on the monthly.
So, Solana, it's one of the few where it's the bears with momentum here on the monthly since March 2025, because if you look at Bitcoin, it's always the bulls that are there, you see. If you look at Ethereum, well, the bulls are there here. You see that the monthly momentum is not moving. No, I didn't want that, I wanted to take the small brush. Thank you. You see here, and Solana, but him, you see, hop, well, it's the bears that are driving a bit. On the other hand, you see that the bears are starting to weaken, and that's very good news. Very, very good news. Now, Solana is also suffering from a lack of momentum, you see. Boom, boom, boom. You see that. Well, it's normal, it's like the whole market, it's not a big deal. Solana, which went to its long-term reload zone between $118 and $109, which held up well last time. No, I don't want a trade, I just want, well, the small brush. It's on its 0.382 Fibonacci. If the 0.382 Fibonacci breaks again, well, it could go to $152, the 0.5 Fibonacci, or even retest the reload zone below $118, knowing that its 50-month moving average is at $109, that's reinforced concrete, the 50 monthly. Well, so Solana, 50 monthly, and since it's younger than Bitcoin and Ethereum, well, it hasn't been around for very long, but you should know that it tested its 50-month moving average in April 2025, it held, then it recovered its Tenkan, which held, and it's pushing. So here, it's a bit like Bitcoin, that is to say, the first major support is the Kumo here at $175. As long as $175 holds, it will be very good for Solana. Breaking $175 means saying hello to the Tenkan at $157, and the drama would be breaking $157-$158 with a candle like this, where the candle body breaks this level, because the next support would be the 50-month moving average around $110, where we could retest $110 again. $110 is right in the reload zone. So roughly, a Bitcoin that goes to $100,000 is a Solana that goes to approximately $157, the Tenkan. A Bitcoin that goes to $76,000, the Tenkan, is a Solana that can go to $110,000. So, everything will depend, of course, on dear little Bitcoin. If $100,000 is broken, then it will really start to sting, potentially sting the correction, that is to say, heading for the Tenkan towards $76,000, you see. But for now, we haven't broken it, so there's no point in being afraid for nothing. So on the, well. So for now, I think the monthly analysis is quite good, and on the daily, it doesn't change compared to yesterday, nothing has changed. It's the same structure as Bitcoin. We are waiting for the break where it does a small A, small B, small C, breaking $174 without breaking $170, and then it gives us a new higher high, and then it's the monthly C, or it's directly the monthly C that starts. Well, same analysis as yesterday, same structure as Ethereum, no novelty. Solana doesn't have much liquidity to the south, a little at $173, so it could nibble just below $174 to go, you see, say $173, where it can eat around $600 million. The bulk of the liquidity is to the north. To the north, there is really something to eat. That's why it would be good to do just a little nibbling here to validate this small regular without going below $170, and boom, the small bullish wave to validate this regular to eat all of that. We will also look at the weekly structure tomorrow.
Okay. Regarding XRP, monthly, it's extremely ugly. Why is it extremely ugly? For two reasons. The first is the explosion of XRP, which in 3 months had done a x6, you see. Well, it's when they said about the trial, "Yes, it's good, the trial is finally over." So that caused the charts to explode a bit, to do a x6 so quickly. And then there was this nuclear wick, you see, which XRP reached, let's say, -55% in one day, you see. So that completely blew up the indicators. It's normal, huh. It's frankly like a shitcoin, huh. It's like a meme coin. It's a big mess. A big pump and then a big dump, it's a shitcoin. And you see, it's making the McDonald's M. The McDonald's M is beautiful. Here, it's really XRP. Look at this. The McDo M, it's beautiful, huh. Well, anyway, so it's really, really ugly. Very, very ugly. If I were in altcoins, personally, with a chart like this, I would say it's a mess, I wouldn't get involved. Well, you're happy when it's green. But when it starts to make candles of -50%, you're already less happy. So for now, the Kumo is holding well, the October close, you see, closing above this blue line, the XRP Kumo at $2.45. If it breaks its Kumo, it's heading for the Tenkan at $2.02. Breaking $2.02 means returning to the deep hell and damnation to reach the 5-year monthly moving average at $1.05. So you really want $2.45 to hold, and especially the Tenkan at around $2.05. For now, like the rest of the market, XRP is suffering from a loss of momentum, huh. You see that the bulls are tired, they don't have much energy left. Let's hope that if the bears come back, they won't be too mean. You see what I mean? Well, for now, the 50-month moving average is there. The reload zone is between $1.69 and $1.16. Will it want to do another tour of the reload zone before going up again? Well, for now, since everything is slow, it doesn't smell super bullish. But as long as the Tenkan here at around $2.05 holds, it will be fine. We really need to pump this level. If the Tenkan at $2.05 is lost, it will be hell.
And on the daily, it doesn't change at all from yesterday's analysis because today's candle looks like nothing. It's exactly the same as yesterday's close. So let's watch yesterday's video. This one is a small running correction. It's like Bitcoin here, it could nibble a bit at the bottom, validate the running correction to give a little push upwards before making the nuclear C, or it's directly the nuclear C that starts. Same structure as Bitcoin, knowing that XRP has room to eat on both sides. That's why I would see, you see, the continuation of this small wave to nibble lower. Then it won't break $2.19 to nibble a bit, sorry, here, you see, around $2.20. $2.20 is roughly, you see, it's roughly around there, you see, to eat, sorry, to eat all of that. And then it's boom, it's the rise to validate this running correction, a nice bullish wave to eat all of that. A bit like Bitcoin, if you want, Bitcoin and XRP have roughly the same structure. EUR Solana, they are rather regular, they have the same structure, both of them.
So that's it for this monthly update. So in summary, the analysis tells us, well, that for now, it doesn't smell like a bear market at all. There are still plenty of very important supports to break before saying "Oh my god, it's a bear market." And as long as these supports are not broken, personally, I don't think it's a bear market at all. If we break these very important supports, then I will start to say it stinks of bear market. For now, no, the supports are not broken, not a bear market. After that, yes, the really negative thing is that the market is suffering from a loss of momentum, that is to say, well, buyers are not really present anymore, the bulls are a bit on the defensive, and that totally reflects the current atmosphere in finance with Trump coming out with his nonsense, a war here, something there, problems here, problems there. Well, so we just need all of this to calm down, all this worrying atmosphere around Trump, trade tariffs, inflation in the United States rising, unemployment exploding. Well, we need to get out of this bad atmosphere. That's why the crypto market is suffering from a fairly general loss of momentum. If we get out of this fog, of this bad atmosphere, then the time could come back, it could push. So in summary, for now, it's okay. And we'll see what happens in the coming weeks, next month. Sending kisses, and we'll talk again soon. Bye bye. [Music]