Transcription
Hello everyone. I hope that you had a decent trading week thus far, right? You traded today, you probably had a lot of trouble, right? Remember, due to the fact that today, right, we had no high news events, right, during the course of the day. That's why we had that, you know, choppy type of price action, right? That's why we had the NASDAQ tender moving in opposite directions in the morning, right?
However, right, we did have sequential SMT, as you guys can see right here. Right here, we had Tuesday's low being left, right, right in the formation of a failure swing, right? So we did not break below Tuesday. So on today, which is Wednesday, price expanded higher here for the NASDAQ, right? We did break below Tuesday's low, right, which is what, you know, we usually expect. This is the type of price action you would usually expect whenever we have sequential SMT, right? So when the asset class which breaks below the low will usually be the weakest, right, unless we have a lower time frame sequential SMT which opposes this one.
So here, right, you can see that we did not break above this high, but we broke above this high, right here. So when price was trading above here, this would be seen as a real market structure shift, whereas this one is probably underway, right, for us to see, right? Or what I would like to see before we see any down moves, right? And, you know, pay attention to everything that I'm saying, right? We would like to see sequential SMT between this month and the previous month, right? This is the previous month's high for the S&P 500. This is the previous month's high for the NASDAQ. This is the previous month's high for the Dow. Right? Tomorrow, we have a high impact news event, right, which is it will be in the morning, right, 8:30 AM. And then again, we have another high news event, well, two more at 10:00 AM in the morning.
So what is, you know, SMT failure? Right? It's not just, it is not just, you know, a random fair value gap. It's not just a random fair value. Right? It has to be a fair value gap that was formed within a previous quarter, right? That's what would make it an SMT buy. So for example, let me drop down to the daily. It's not coming up for some reason, but anyways, right? For example, here we have a fair value gap, right, during Q3 here, right? We have a gap during Q3. This is Q3, right? Which was, this is Wednesday's price action. Tomorrow, right, if, right, we see price dip into, pay attention to this, an FVG which was formed on the higher time frame, right? It can either be the weekly. Not the weekly, can either be the one-hour time frame or the four-hour time frame, right? So if we, for example, see a fair value gap form, right, and say ES fails to drop into the gap, right, but NQ does that, we could expect higher prices, right, until, you know, we see sequential SMT at the highs. Do you understand? Definitely don't want this to, you know, be elitist. So just being a little bit protective here.
So as you guys know, when we're on the 50-minute time frame, you need a daily cycle, right? That's what you need. So for example, right here, right? Say, for example, this, this fair value gap, right? You can see that it's filled. This is for just example, you know, purposes here. We had price trade well way below this fair value gap, below this gap. What happened, right? We had SMT, right? We had SMT. Now we have to do this again. Why? So this gap right here was filled. This one was overfilled, right? And then we had SMT below it. Here, we did not have price trading within this gap, right? We did not. So right here, right, where you have this gap being traded into, pay attention, right? They have this gap being, you know, trading into, right here. So the opening of this gap would have begun in the previous quarter, right? Even though, even though, right, this candle would complete the entire fair value gap, right? But due to the fact that this is the low, right, which, you know, began basically in the, in the previous quarter, right? Whenever you see something like this, right? There are times when you'll see SMT with a candle that, you know, begins the quarter, right? And then you will see price like run below this low. But this candle literally began this quarter. This candle is actually the low of the previous quarter, right here, right? That's what it is. And this is the looking at it, right? This is the New York session. So this would be the low of the New York session, right here.
So here, right, during this quarter, what happened? We had price fill this fair value gap, right here. And you've never heard about this before. Then here, you had price trade into this fair value gap, and then what happened afterwards? There was SMT, right? Um, this morning, I, I went live on Instagram for a while, right? I think like three hours or so, were calling moves and all of that good stuff. We'll be doing that here, you know, where we will be having sessions where we will just be, you know, watching live price action, you know, trying to anticipate what will happen. It will not be, you know, exciting, right? It will be boring. So don't come, you know, expecting. Well, you'll get a few jokes and, you know, sometimes, but more likely, it will mostly be boring.
So right here, within, you know, this price action, you can see that this fair value gap was traded into. Then there was SMT here. However, we did not have this fair value gap being filled. So this gap was not filled, right here, but this one was, right? So there'll be times when also you will have, you know, gaps over here, you know, be, you know, not being filled while gaps over here will be filled within another asset class. What we refer to as an SMT market structure shift is this, right? So this is something else, right? It's the end of the month, right? So you already know that next month, we'll be touching on these things a bit more.
So here, right, you can see that on this candle, right, this candle right here, I'll use the crosshair here. After we had SMT, right? This candle broke above this high. Can you see that? This candle broke above this high, whereas this candle did not break above this high. So this would be categorized as an actual change in the state of delivery. All right? Until we transfer to L, we'll be, you know, trying to not put the terms on the chart. So for you to actually understand this, you need to, you know, be watching. You can't just screenshot something to understand, right? I'm not going to be writing this on the chart right here. Right? We can see that this candle traded above this high while this one did not. This was an actual market structure shift, right? And remember that we also had SMT on the higher time frames, right?
So now, right, pretty much, you know, have you guys bored? So it's time to get into the real stuff, right? So we'll be discussing, right, in detail, in great detail, we will be discussing a stage four setup, right? So we have setups, of course, which go up to 10 stages, right, or 10 functions. But here, you'll be learning the model, you know, if you can code, you can put us into code, and then it will give you, you know, positive results. So the first half was just, you know, discussing these, you know, basic things. But now, right, for for the people that stopped watching, got bored, I have to be, you know, implementing these security measures right now because been good. Okay. All right. So right now, we'll look at which this morning and in and Instagram, I did talk about this setup live before the fact, right? Oh man, not sure how much you guys were there, but yeah, matter of fact, you know, I will probably be giving you guys a little bit more. Anyways, here this morning, right, we to talk about this, right? So this was sequential SMT, right? So we had the dollar index failed to break below this low, right? And to make this even better, occurred on a new week opening gap, right? And the purpose of this, right, is just to catch an explosive move, right? It's not to, you know, hold the trade forever. It's just get in and get out at, you know, at least three hours and then hunt for another setup another day. Right here, you can see that we, we failed to break above London's high, right here. This is London's high. Failed to break above London's high, right here. Meanwhile, you know, there was a new week opening gap, right here as well.
So now we're literally just discussing stage one, right? Right? So stage one would be this sequential SMT between the sessions, right? This is for intraday setups. So the first thing that you would look for is what? You would like to see sequential SMT between the sessions, right? You would, you know, you should prefer to see sequential SMT on the lower time frame cycles, right? But it's not necessary. There are times when we will have certain specific highs being run out, right? And then whenever we have the formation of a precision swing point, once we have a candle to the right of that, if it's a bearish precision swing point close, you could enter with that and put your stop above the high, right? And you guys already know how we do our stops already. We don't need higher time frame PDS or none of that, right? Swing low to swing low before the stop, right? Before the liquidity is purged, right? Your stop would be here. Or while price is here, getting ready to trade above this high, you could enter above this high short. Above this s for your stop right here, right? We've mentioned this multiple times. There you will not always have a chance to get back, you know, in. Whenever we have the formation of a fair value gap, just as here, these trades tend to be the best, right? Also, remember. So here, this is a precision swing point right here, right? What else? What's new? What's new that you don't know? Check these highs, these lows, and these highs out, right?
So here, right, and now use the crosshair for this, right? You can see that this was SMT, right? This was SMT. This was s, and this was SMT. So the times when you do not, and I repeat, the times when you, you know, you do not need a sequential SMT on the lower time frame cycle would be in this, in this case. But if there was a, you know, lower time frame sequential here, it would be valid as well, right? So there are times when it will seem as if, you know, you'll have a reversal, and it will seem, seem as if there was no correlation, but there was, right? There was, and this is what it is, right? So these highs and lows were SMT before the fact, right? These were SMT, right? But what caused this to be activated, like, right? Liquidity was resting below this low, a lot of liquidity, right? Because the most liquidity rests below lows which or highs which were formed by SMT, right? These highs right here in the dollar, you can see. And this is why if you were on Instagram this morning while, you know, I woke up and we were, you know, talking about this before it happened, this is why, right? And we will be discussing this, you know, in, whenever, you know, we, we'll be doing this exact same thing, you know, live whenever we move to walk. Because right now, you know, there are people that I believe they clone the chat or something. So it's like I don't want to be helping them in any way, which is, you know, why we do what we do. And, you know, yeah, why the first part of this video I was talking so much, get them bored, let them just leave.
So again, you can see that your Euro, we have this high taken out, this high, right, at the same exact time when the Great British pound was failing to take this high. So this is important. You need to understand this is very important, right? We wouldn't see this happen if these highs were symmetrical, all right? This is how you spot highs and lows with real liquidity, real liquidity, right? So these were SMT highs, right? SMT high, right out. What happened after that? Precision swing point formed here. Right? SMT high ran out, lot of liquidity above this high. After this, what happened? We took out London's side. So due to the fact, right, that, right, you have this, the SMT high, you put your, right, your fibs here from this swing low to this swing high. Right? This swing low was formed within this fair value gap, which makes it important. This swing low was formed right below the high of this high. So right here, right, one standard deviation above, right? Price trades above this, you become bearish, right? Then what happened afterwards? We have, you know, you have price breakdown. Precision swing point, right? You would literally, you know, you become bearish soon as this price, this candle, you know, closes down and this one closes up, you could get in sync with, you know, just the open of this candle. Price trades up, you would anticipate a swing point being formed, then you have price breakdown. So SMT buy. So there's a lot of things here to unpack. All right? What qualifies this as a precision swing point when we had no lower time frame sequential SMT? The fact that we traded above the SMT high, right? That's why this is not a regular high, right? This side was formed by SMT, which made it relevant. After, you know, the dollar traded above this side, what happened? We had the pound trading above London's high. The dollar failed to do so, right? So stage two would be what? Precision swing point in price trading above an SMT high. So first, you need what? A higher time frame sequential SMT. Then you need a precision swing point formed below SMT high. Or you could have a lower time frame sequence of SMT here where you wouldn't need the precision swing point or the SMT high, right? Here also, right, you need to take into consideration that you do not want to see SMT opposing the direction of of your trade, right? So here, right, there is no SMT, right? That's no SMT, right here. Trying to make it easy to understand here. There is no SMT, right here. It's happening. There's no SMT, right? So this is, you know, an easy way to look at it where it becomes a, you know, it looks like to the outside world a pattern, right? But here we have three stages, right? Three things that we must look for, right? So this is the higher time frame sequential SMT. Here you could either have a lower time frame sequential SMT, or this is more advanced, but, you know, you have to look for this or begin to look for this, right? Look for highs which were formed by SMT being run out and rejected, right? And after this happens, right, well, even prior to this happening, you want to make sure that we have this, right? No SMT opposing the higher time frame SMT, right? This will become liquidity. Note that this, you know, price didn't go above here and just drop. It just, it just blew way above it, right? Usually, if there was another SMT here, then you would have price probably go above it, then you have a lower time frame SMT form, then it just falls back within the range. Why? Because of, you know, this concept that we've begun to, you know, discuss.
So as you guys can see here, right, was what price wanted, right? But what, what activated price? What allowed price to gravitate to these highs and these lows? What did that? We had SMT, higher time frame, stage one, stage two, right here. Can either be sequential SMT on a lower time frame, or SMT have being run out with a precision swing point, which is important, right? Then, right, you will have price be attracted to, you know, these levels which were not caused by SMT. This is a low resistance liquidity run. It could be better, right, if there was an SMT fill. But due to the fact that today, right, we did not have high probability conditions, and these markets are not high probability, right? But if you have, right, sequential SMT on the higher time frame, and if you had sequential SMT on the lower time frame, right? And then you have SMT fill, and then the highs above were symmetrical, right? There was no correlation that caused them to form, then you would expect price to gravitate to them, right? So, you know, this is for, you know, those that have been paying attention, right? And yes, stage two, right here, is comprised of two things, right? You need a high or low, in this case, a low, looking at the US dollar, which was what, what caused the formation of this? It was caused by SMT, right? So we had, we had SMT here. Price traded quick here, then it fell below. Precision swing point, re-secured. Price goes up. No pullbacks or anything. What else that made this, you know, something to look at? You had the precision swing point here, formed on a new week opening gap. There's a lot of stuff here to digest. There's a lot of stuff here, right, to pay attention to, right? So we had SMT, right, being confirmed on a new week opening gap with a precision swing point trading below these lows, which we already talked about, while above the price, right, the previous price action. We had these highs which were not caused by SMT. Obviously, you would be looking at the dollar, you know, to get your bias and almost everything, right? So when you had this precision swing point forming here, right? And at times, right, if, you know, you don't always have, you know, to be looking at anything else, right, in terms of new, new week opening gaps, new day opening gaps, if you're trading Forex or anything, right? Just be, you know, focused on the dollar.
So here, right, also, you have price trade above this high. Note that we were above the new week opening gap for the pound, right? But, you know, we traded here, and this is what caused the sequential SMT. The pound was overbought, right? Way overbought, right? And then we end up trading above these highs as well, which are important, right? So, you know, going forward, where does, you know, high probability trades usually occur? Right? Whenever you have SMT, right? And then you have sequential SMT, or, you know, just a stop run with a precision swing point, which all of this must be happening, you know, under a higher time frame cycle, sequential SMT. So this sets the stage, right? This is the base of it, right? If you're using the weekly cycle, right? And say this was Wednesday's high, this is Thursday's high, it would be the same thing, but it's just on a higher time frame cycle, right? It's fractal. This is basically what usually happens, right? This is what happens when you have consolidation and expansion. This is what causes it, right? Remember, right here, right, this just little, you know, section of price action, right here, right, where you have the SMT lows being taken out with a precision swing point on a new week opening gap, right? You could put, where could you put your stop here, right? Due to the fact that you had a precision swing point right here, you had a precision swing point right here, right? We ran SMT lows. There is sequential SMT on the high time frame cycle, right here. You have highs which were not formed by SMT or SMT, right? This would be liquidity. This would lead to price having a low resistance liquidity run. Price will not have any problem to just reverse. This section of price action could be replaced with sequential SMT, right? So for example, right, this could, for example, this could have been, which it was, the first quarter of the new New York session. This could be the second quarter of the New York session, and price could have ran below this low, right? And which could have caused SMT to happen in another pair, right? So this, which is stage two, can be one of two things, right? Can add to it, but you see happening here with the addition of precision swing point, right? The new week opening gap, it makes it more probable, right? So we don't care about order blocks, we don't care about breakers, right? What we care about is fair value gaps, you know, of all types, price ranges, new week opening gaps, new day opening gaps, highs and lows, sequential SMT. A precision, precision swing point is not necessary for SMT, right? So once you have at least two sequential SMTs, right, a higher time frame cycle followed by a lower time frame cycle, right? Like, for example, whenever we usually have, you know, a one shot one kill, it's usually under the, you know, sequence that you had a, the weekly cycle, right? You had sequence between the weekly cycle, and then you have it within the daily cycle, right? Says weekly cycle, daily cycle, weekly cycle, sequence SMT to daily cycle, sequence SMT, right? Trying to not make it hard to understand, right? You basically, you know, you need. Okay, what would that be? That would be two stages. Stage one, weekly cycle, sequence SMT. And this is, you know, tailored for the one shot one kill model. Then what happens afterwards? Daily cycle, sequence. So right here, right, there was no lower time frame sequence, but there was a correlation, right? We had these highs, right, for the Euro taken out. These highs for the Dow taken out, right? After these highs were taken out, sequential SMT was confirmed when the British pound traded above this high. The Euro did not. Meanwhile, the Euro traded into a new week opening gap, and the pound did that, did that as well, which caused the formation of a precision swing point. So you can actually take these, you know, things and try to build your own model, you know, toy with them, study them, right? But, you know, these are things that you must focus on. For example, these highs which are not regular highs, these lows which are not regular lows, new week opening gaps, right? And what would lead to a low resistance liquidity run? Symmetrical highs. So symmetrical highs should not be used for entries. They should be used for exits. You want to enter above unsymmetrical highs, which are these, or and you want to enter below unsymmetrical lows. I hope that you guys found something useful from this, right? Um, I hope that it wasn't too difficult, difficult, you know, for you to understand. If it was, I would like to hear your feedback, right? Because if this was difficult, then next month, it'll be crazy, right? So, right, you literally can follow the model, right here with the Great British pound. I didn't write, you know, just write everything down because I know that someone's just going to screenshot it and post it everywhere, which I don't want to happen, right? Definitely don't want that to happen. If you don't know what SMT means, this will mean, this would make no sense to you, right? This would not make any sense to you. Was what the unsymmetrical highs, right here? SMT. This high took out this high, which led to price fall. Was sequential SMT, right? These lows are symmetrical lows, right? Symmetrical lows and highs are what you should be using for your draw on liquidity, right? So due to the fact that we had SMT here, the draw on liquidity would be wherever we have symmetrical liquidity. Line unsymmetrical highs and lows are usually used for reversal. You can have unsymmetrical highs and lows, right, being run out, and this could also cause sequential SMT on a lower time frame, right? For that, you would not need a precision swing point. But due to the fact that we had no lower time frame sequential SMT here, right, this high was taken, this one was taken, this, this low was taken, then you would need a precision swing point under, right? A under the, you, you need a lower, well, a higher time frame sequence SMT to kick this into action. You will discover most times that you would usually have, right, these types of moves, you know, starting from a new week opening gap, right? And this is the way how you can confirm that a new week opening gap will reject price. As you guys can see, we are talking about no higher time frame levels. It's basic. It's just time, highs and lows, gaps, right? We, we're, we're not talking about order blocks and we're not talking about breakers because we have passed that stage, right? We, we literally all we need is three correlated assets. Right? You can use two as well, but three is better, right? So you have three correlated asset classes, right? You can, you can be on your time frame of preference, right? So you would basically just need to be watching the, for example, for this, you need to be watching the daily cycle, right? You'll be watching the daily cycle and you'll be looking at new week opening gaps, right? And remember, right, price moves from new week opening gap to new week opening gap. So right here, you can see from this new week opening gap, price just flew through this new day opening gap. And when it went to the other new week opening gap, what happened? Price just completely reversed. So I hope that you found this useful. There are a lot of things that you can unpack and basically make your own, right? And also pay attention. Look that this new week opening gap, you can see that we had a, the formation of a precision swing point, right? And this is what we talked about here, right? So this is a new week opening gap. These highs, look at them, right? This is what these are unsymmetrical highs, right? These lows were, you can see that we had price trading below this one, right? Well, barely did, but did, right? More than likely be this one. So let's focus on these lows, right? So price traded below, right? And it doesn't matter if it just barely goes below the low, right? Once there's an un, a low which is not symmetrical, and then afterwards, right, we have a precision swing point which happened right here, right? This is a precision swing point. This is a new week opening gap. So this is a form of, you know, let's say reversal. So you need a new week opening gap, right? You need a precision swing point, and you need unsymmetrical highs or lows to be ran through, right? What, you know, you know, also you can look right here. Let's make this different color, you know, green. I don't even know which color to use. Doesn't matter though, but that is great. So here, right, this fair value gap right here, right? Right, I traded up into it, right? Remember we talked about this before, this is, you know, an SMT fill, right? Price it into this, but got after a precision swing point formed, and we had unsymmetrical highs being taken out, right? So this high is taken out, precision swing point, new week opening gap, price fell, then what happened afterwards? Price filled here. This fair value up, but what happened here? Just for your edification, right? I'm going to use the crosshair, what's it called, whatever it is, this thing. So, you know, to make you see the corresponding times of where the fair value gaps were formed, right here, right? Whenever you see price like this, right? Remember weeks or gaps, right? This is something to clear, you know, up. This for some of you, weeks or gaps, right? Fair value gaps. So whenever you see a gap below another gap, you just combine them, right? Just combine them, basically. Anyways, here, and then here, we could see that price filled this gap. So here, this is the SMT fill, right? Which takes place after we have at least two stages, right? You need at least two stages for this to make sense. And, you know, we're going into a lot of different things right now. So price runs through an unsymmetrical high, there's sequential SMT, and a new week opening gap, price breaks down, SMT fill, drops, right? This would be what caused price to reverse. So there will be times when there is no sequential SMT, right? No sequential SMT, but you, there will be, you know, things like this happen. So when there's not sequential SMT, then you can look for, you know, these things, right? A combination of the correlations that we've spoken about. What we are going into, right? It's not, it's not patterns, right? It's different gaps being filled at different times while, you know, it's not filled within another asset class, right? So it's not just, okay, I'm just going to look for a sequence. You can do that, right? But there are other ways to find something useful to do. And these are more advanced, you know, topics which we will dive deep into. We are slowly, you know, going into something else that's not quarterly theory because quarterly theory is the base of everything that we do. Right? Quarterly theory is the easy way. Right? Quarterly theory is something that, you know, everyone should be able to understand. Higher time frame cycle, sequential SMT, followed by a lower time frame cycle, sequential SMT, then you need a third stage, which could either be, you know, a precision swing point confirming the sequential SMT on the lower time frame, or you have SMT fill, or you just have a market, a real market structure shift, right? Which would be like this here, right? So this low, right? Why wouldn't it be, why wouldn't it be this low? Why is it this one? It would be due to the fact that, right, we did not have this high traded above while this one was, you know, traded close to, and this one was actually breached, right? So this would confirm the market structure shift. Okay, gears have changed. Gears have changed. We trade above here. We failed to trade above here. So this was a market structure shift. Then what happened afterwards? Afterwards, right, price did not fill this gap, just continued to run higher, right? So here we have one stage, right? Price traded above SMT highs, right? Unsymmetrical highs, the formation of what? A precision swing point within a new week opening. SMT fill. Then we had an actual shift in market structure here. But it, what it did occur here, right, when price traded above this high in the Euro, but it did not trade below this below in the dollar, and did not trade above this high in the British pound, right? So it's not just, Michael showed you guys this alone, right? Basically, all he showed you was this 20122 model. What, what did he say? Price break below, you wait for market structure shift, and then you buy the fair value. But when does that work? Is here SMT fill? What is that? This gap being filled in the dollar, this one being filled in the Euro, and this one not being filled in the Great British pound. That's what SMT fill is. Again, if you can understand that, let's say it again. This one being filled in the dollar, this one being filled in the Euro, and this one not being traded to in the pound, right? That's what it is. Here, before there was an SMT fill, what happened? Okay, what happened, right? Can you see what happened, right? We had price trade here, and let's do this, right? We had price trade here, then traded back here into, you know, the fair value gap here again. I'm just saying this one last time. We had price to what? Fill this gap. And here it did not. When this happened, this confirmed that we were bullish, right? And when this did not happen, while this did happen, right? So pretty much that's what you would be looking for, right? And if I don't talk about something, it's not important, like volume imbalances or, you know, not important, not important at all. And the day was, you know, we didn't have the, even look at the dollar right now. Look at this, right? This is not clean price, and this is due to the fact that, you know, we have all of this, all of these issues going on. And speaking about the, you know, geopolitical issues. Okay, you can see price just gapped right here, right? This is a TA tail. This doesn't happen a lot. This happened while we were literally, you know, just talking. This does not happen a lot. All right? So yeah, low probability conditions. Wait for clear draw liquidity. Wait for, you know, a higher time frame cycle, sequential SMT. If we don't have that, then we do nothing. We wait, right? Because remember, there are times when we have week after week, day after day, everyone's like, look at this, we found it right here. But there's going to be some times, right, right now, where you will not, you know, see clear price action. All right? But these are the times that will test you. These are times that will make you a better analyst, which is what you should be striving to do, because once you know where price is going to go more times than not, then you will by default become a better trader. So until next time, I hope that you, you know, took something from what I've said here. I tried to like say, you know, certain things in code, but it didn't work. Just ended up saying it anyways, right? There's a lot of gems, and you'll be more, you know, specific once you move to W. I got to like want a phone call after this and see what they're dealing with. Why is it taking so long? So yeah, I will speak with you guys if it's not Saturday, Friday, but for sure, we're going to speak again on Sunday. Right? I hope you guys have a wonderful afternoon, well, or night, wherever you are. Goodbye.