Transcription
What's up guys? Mine with a very quick video update for you. Um, not much has changed since Monday's update. Right, we're still within this low time frame range. I didn't end up getting the trade that I wanted. So, I had mentioned potentially taking a trade if Bitcoin could have ran Monday's low. And then alternatively, I said, "Hey, maybe the short is if we run Monday's high." I didn't end up taking this short. the way it tra the way it traded, excuse me.
The only way I would have gotten to enter, I usually use an hourly reclaim. So, kind of like you had on ETH here where it closes below and then you have an hourly close back within. This obviously didn't work, but um that's normally how I would trade this unless you were on like the five minute chart here and you saw this and then you short it as soon as it got back in. I personally didn't take this because by the time the hourly candle had closed back within, half the move was already done. So, I was flat on Bitcoin here. I didn't get the long down here on the way up. It came very close. Didn't take the short on the way back down.
High time frame stuff I talked about in the last video, all still the exact same. We're still in a period of maximum kind of fear uh within uh the crypto markets. People are still very scared. people still don't think that there's a possibility that perhaps, you know, this price action and this price action are similar in that we could be forming some sort of bottom. Same thing I've talked about here. Are we going to run all of these lows? We've run this one now. Is this enough or do we need to run this low? Do we even need to run this low down here? This is the one I think I would not be interested uh in seeing us go below. I think if we were to run below this, we are absolutely in a bare market and we are most likely going to put in a lower high. Whereas, if we maintain this structure, sweep this low, but hold this one, I think there's still an outside shot at all-time high. Either way, there's still maximum greed or fear, excuse me. Um, people are still very scared and uh it it shows in the price, right? I mean, moves are getting fully retraced. Uh, people are puking, people are getting liquidated. And in reality, we're still just kind of in this range.
So shortterm, I don't think you really need to rush into anything here. If I put our levels back on, you can see we're still smack dab in the middle of this range. So if I'm going to take a trade, I want to see it below here or here or maybe above here, right? So potential shorts above here, potential longs below here, below here. Right now, there's not really a trade to take. I mentioned maybe a reclaim of this or something along Monday's range. It just didn't happen. We came up above the level, smacked that smacked back down almost immediately. So, not much to update there.
Something that I also want to note is Sailor came out and said he's still buying, right? So, you got to wonder every one of these pumps, is this just Sailor buying and then he runs out of money and then it pulls back? Is this Sailor buying? He runs out of money, it pulls back. We don't know how much price action above 100K is just from Sailor on his own. That being said, they also announced, this was a little bit ago now, that they've got some cash or strategic reserves. That way, they don't have to sell. I'm not really too worried about Sailor blowing up and selling. Uh I don't think that that's a risk factor. I mean, listen, it could be, but that's not something I'm really worried about. I'm looking at the charts. I'm focused at the charts. He's still buying. So, it's just a piece of information that we can keep track of, right?
Um I think overall it's the holidays, right? So liquidity is a little thin. We're seeing this kind of choppy PA full retraces. It's just kind of ugly. And if you're like, "Hey, I don't really like this. Oh, I'm so bearish. I don't like this main. I think you're wrong. I think this is the lower high. We're going to 60K now." Then sell. Like, no one is forcing you to be here. Watch these videos. Follow my updates and do what I'm doing. Like, if you want to get out, sell. If you think it's over, sell. If you if you if you don't like this price action and you you want to wait until it cleans up, take a break, close the computer, go outside, spend some time with your loved ones. It is the holidays after all. You don't have to be here staring at this trying to make sense of it. If it doesn't make sense to you, right? I'm just sharing my thoughts, what I'm doing with my money. That's helpful for you. Fantastic.
I still think we're rangebound. I'm still interested in looking for trades around these levels here that I've talked about. So above the range high around 938 to 94. Uh and then below these key lows around 83 and then around 80. So around those levels, that's where I'll be looking to frame these trades. No one's forcing you to do anything. You can sit on the sidelines and chill. You can just hodddle your Bitcoin. You can do whatever you want. Obviously, if you're holding some altcoins, it's been painful. Altcoins are getting smacked pretty good. Uh and you know, kind of have just continuously underperformed. We're getting a little perk up here on BTC dominance. Obviously have massively underperformed. Bitcoin as they always do in the cycle. I know many people are still waiting for alt season. Uh but if you've been following me long enough, the goal here is to convert you to a Bitcoin maxi. Understand what altcoins are good for. There's very brief periods in time where Salana is going to outperform Bitcoin, right? And during that period of time, you want to be in Salana maybe instead of Bitcoin during these periods. But then the rest of the time, Bitcoin's usually kicking its ass. That's goes the same for Ethereum, right? Generally, you're better off holding Bitcoin instead of ETH. That goes the same for all of these altcoins. The new ones, too. Oh my god, whiff was the newest hottest thing. There was a very brief window where it made a lot of sense to be in whiff instead of Bitcoin. Since that window closed, way better off being in Bitcoin. You're getting absolutely decimated if you're holding whiff.
Okay, so we're still focused on Bitcoin. I still believe that there is an opportunity for this to be a macro bottom. Whether that leads to a new all-time high or that just leads to a lower high, that's TBD, but we're waiting. We do not have a confirmed bottom yet. Generally, we get an SFP at these bottoms and tops. We don't have that. We also haven't made a higher high of any sort on the on on any of the kind of higher time frames right here. This was confirmed a bottom once we broke through there. This was a confirmed bottom in my opinion once we broke through there. We have not had that kind of break which in this instance would be at the yearly open giving us confirmation that yes, this is indeed already the swing low. Still too early to tell. Still got to be patient. And if you can't be patient, I don't know what to tell you. Maybe the market is not for you. Um or or maybe you should just like come back when things are happening more quickly or trade on a lower time frame. I don't know. I'm willing to be patient. Let this play out.
One other thing that I wanted to mention is we have the BOJ rate decision tomorrow. Um, I've talked about the yen carry trade before. Rates are generally low. Blah blah blah. If you're really into it, go look at the bonds. Go look at companies like SoftBank. Go track all of that [ __ ] For your purpose as a crypto only trader, okay? Okay, if you're just focused on trading crypto, I think the only thing you really need to look at, honestly, is um USD JPY. This is enough insight into whether or not the yen carry trade uh is going to play out, I think, for for for the average crypto trader. Where was the top of the 2021 bull market? It was right here. Okay. Well, one of the tops, but April 2021 when we topped out, right? You remember? Well, what is this? This is the bottom of the yen the yen move right here's the top of the 2013 bull run. Okay, 2017 bull run. Big move up on the yen. This is a three-month chart. This is a major high time frame chart. If we see yen strength, right? Basically, if this puts in a green freaking big ass candle, it's probably bearish for risk, stocks, crypto, etc. Because if the rates go up, there's yen strength. They have to sell risk to pay back those loans, blah blah blah. Just look at this chart. If this chart breaks up, that's probably not good for Bitcoin and risk. I would much rather see this roll over one more time. Let us sell our [ __ ] bags higher and then go up. Okay.
Anyways, I'll do a video once we get that rate decision tomorrow. I think it'll be more interesting and maybe we'll have a little bit more price action to talk about. Today was just [ __ ] basically, oh, we're up above 90K. a bunch of people tweeting about it on Twitter. Ran Monday's high and we're instantly back below into the mid 80s. ETH peaked above 30,000, crashed down below. This just seems like a magnet on ETH. Maybe even this as well at this point. So, just like Bitcoin, we'll be watching those lows. All right, guys. I got to go. I'll do another video tomorrow. Peace out.