Transcription
So, a move above 500, which I do anticipate uh can happen into February, I think should lift the stock and likely once once we get above 500, I think it's a an even more important breakout than what we saw recently because we're dealing with the entire base since since 2021. And that should really help to lift the stock. I think probably up to 650, maybe even $700 might be a stretch on this runup, but I think that's certainly doable. Uh but then I think we're going to have to consolidate for a bit and I think that that can happen along with the broader stock market likely starting in in either late February or early March, probably into April, May before a decent bounce uh into the summer. You know, most cycle studies with Tesla do show weakness in the spring, but then they show it to have a a stronger second half and and that did materialize also uh last year and in many years it's been the case really over the last few years. we've had early year weakness and then late year strength. And so in this case, I think that between the middle part of 2026 into uh at least the the middle part of 2027, maybe 2028, we see the majority of the acceleration that all of us have come to expect should happen uh with Tesla.
>> One of the guests you asked for the most is back. Mark Newton, head of technical research at Fundstrat, has been sharing his market work with his channel for years, and many of his calls on Tesla have been early and accurate. He uses technical analysis and cycles to study markets and stocks like Tesla. So, what does Mark forecast for Tesla stock right now? He believes Tesla likely bottomed in January after a sharp two-week pullback. Importantly, that move didn't damage the larger trend. However, he says similar to most years, Tesla might face some weakness in the spring, but it will rise at some point in 2026. Let's find out when. If you're a self-directed investor looking for trusted insights to grow your wealth, check out FS Insight by Fundstrap. Subscribers get access to Tom Lee and Mark Newton's daily market insights, real-time alerts, live webinars, and curated stock lists.
Okay. Well, welcome back, Mark. Appreciate you taking some time off and uh joining me again.
>> Thank you, Herbert. and uh happy new year to you and all your followers and subscribers. Uh
>> great.
>> Appreciate that very much. Okay, so we've done this every quarter or so and sometimes I have to wait until you've got a full view of what you're expecting and you've done that. You've done the work. you've kind of analyzed where you saw the stock, how it's behaved over the last month, two months, and then you're going to tell us what you're thinking in the next month or two, but also the coming year. So, let's get started. What uh what has happened to Tesla stock and how's the market viewing it?
>> Well, we've had a remarkable runup since uh April of last year. Um, as investors likely know, the stock did bottom both in April of 2025 and also April of 2024 within almost exactly uh a year between those dates. Um, and we've more than doubled off that that level. And so I think that has been thus far a remarkable rally. Uh, however, as many know, you know, the stock has been quite rangebound over the last, you know, four and a half years. Uh, and so this has been something also that's not new to to Tesla. We've had, you know, several periods since 2010 that have been, uh, you know, quite rangebound. We saw that from 2010 to 2013, 2014 to 2016, uh, specifically more recently just 2021 into where I think the stock of course bottomed is, you know, we we've had a series of of increasing bottoms, but more recently, uh, you know, the stock bottom last April and 2025. So, uh, no, the question is what is ahead of us? And I would just say initially my my key takeaway is that the stock heading into this year is really in much better technical shape than really what we've seen in years past. And I think that's a big positive uh for Tesla. I think that momentum is uh quite positive on many different time frames. Uh the stock remains trending higher from last April. You know, momentum really isn't all that overbought. And I so I think those are all very key positives. We did of course test right around this same level um you know almost a year ago uh today back in December of 2024 you know we were at right around these same levels right around 440 or so. So we look back and and of course we've just started 2026. You know unfortunately last year we had a big dip into April. um this stock has had a a big history of having spring weakness.
>> and so just given my thoughts on the broader stock market which I'm happy to share after we discuss Tesla uh you know I do suspect that after a runup which I think probably lasts into late February early March that we probably will be vulnerable to some of that same weakness as we've seen in years past.
>> So you are expecting a runup. So we kind of hit 500 and you did say that that is a resistance level. It kind of flirted with it and then it fell. It did go past your number of I think 470 something. You said that that was also critical. It went there but then it fell after 500. So how strong is this 500th? You know that that kind of like that is a ceiling it seems like.
>> Well I mean technically the stock closed its highest close for the last few months was 481. Okay. So on an intraday basis yes we did briefly get above that. We know that back in December of 2024 uh the stock at that time got up to 488 on an intraday basis. So at this time you know we saw the close was roughly in line with where that prior intraday high was from from back in 2024 uh late in the year. You know recently we've had a little bit of consolidation and and as I mentioned to you privately you know the majority of the mag 7 really has been um in consolidation. We we've seen stocks like Nvidia and Meta and Microsoft certainly uh consolidating, going sideways, and more recently in the last couple weeks been going down. So, to Tesla's credit, I mean, it's actually hung in there arguably a lot better than than many of the Magnificent 7 at this point. I think that's truly a testament to its strength and the current cycle. I mean, outside of Alphabet and and Tesla, the majority of the MAG 7 um honestly are well off their their highs that were made uh last summer. So, you know, I think it's a good sign. I think going forward, the area I would watch is uh that intraday high from the 22nd of December. And so, that's right near 460 uh 49883. So, right near $500. So, a move above 500, which I do anticipate uh can happen into February, I think should lift the stock um and likely once once we get above 500, I think it's a an even more important breakout than what we saw recently because we're dealing with the entire base since since 2021.
>> And that should really help to lift this stock. I think probably up to $650, maybe even um $700 might be a stretch on this runup, but I think that's certainly doable. Uh but then I think we're going to have to consolidate for a bit. And I think that uh that can happen along with the broader stock market uh likely starting in in either late February or early March, probably into April, May before a decent bounce uh into the summer. So, you know, most cycle studies with Tesla do show weakness in the spring, but then they show it to have a a stronger second half. And and that did materialize also uh last year. And in many years, it's been the case really over the last few years. We've had early year weakness and then late year strength. And so in this case, I think that between the middle part of 2026 into uh at least the middle part of 2027, maybe 2028, we see the majority of the acceleration that all of us have come to expect should happen uh with Tesla just given all the technology developments and and what's happened with with robot tax and everything.
Yeah, let me let me ask you that because that's uh the conversation we've had a few times that Tesla and you've shown your beautiful uh chart and you show that Tesla because it's an innovative innovation company, it typically will be you know flat for so long then you know the stock the stock stays flat but the company keeps in um inventing things improving things starting to roll things out and then it jumps and then it's flat then it jumps where are we there where are we at at that that stage because FSDs is uh pretty well solved and we're getting to these milestones where Robbo taxi might uh be rolled out. Um it's been delayed from what we were expecting by the end of December, but nothing is saying that nothing is there's no showstopper. This is actually a there's a high possibility Tesla will roll this out to multiple cities, more more cars that could happen. that then proves that their technology they've been working on is great and then we can have that next jump up uh or or or over the year, not right away necessarily, but yeah. Where are we?
I think the stock has the stock has clearly anticipated that because despite you know arguably lackluster performance in in in the car business you know obviously the stock has more than doubled since last April and you know it was unfortunate to see the stock become more of a political stock or that time seems to be past and so I think that's uh very encouraging you know but but look it it I I think it's probably best if I share my screen and and let's take a look at really where the stock is now and really put this recent move into uh a little bit different perspective. So let me share my screen here and you can see that the stock remains largely rangebound from 2021. The majority of the gains uh lately happened from 2019 into 2021 and then we've had a 4-year period of consolidation. Now it it is constructive technically when you see bases being built like this. Many people will refer to it as a a cup and handle pattern. Um, you know, I personally thought the stock potentially could start to push up into October. Uh, that proved to be short-lived and the stock is largely still sort of churning right near this former high. But but make no mistake, when this base is officially exceeded, which I think means really getting over $500, uh that can help to lift the stock and and it should start to accelerate, which would mean some of what you're talking about should start to be um you know, anticipated like it's going to be realized in in the performance uh for the company I think uh in the near future. And so that would, you know, just taking the length of say the movement from 2019 to 2021 and projecting higher, you know, gets you up to the mid600s, uh, 648 up to 741. You know, each of these prior moves moved up about 190%, you saw a 240% move. If we moved in the same projection and let's say we moved up 300%, that would get us to the mid 600s really from the lows that were made back in early 2025. So I think that's the first move and I think that is uh directly ahead of us and I think that is possible. Um it's always tricky when the stock's peer group and in this case I do think the mag 7 is apppropo because the stock had held up but we saw a breakdown in mag 7 last week and so as those have weakened the stock also in the last few days has been weak but I don't make too much of that. I still think the stock is is actually showing remarkable strength. So uh I believe the stock you know is in the process of bottoming after some early year consolidation really over the last few weeks and I I sense that uh you know most of my work points for a a strong uh emergence out of this higher which I think can help us to get to one of those targets I mentioned before we start to see consolidation.
>> Yeah. Can you remind me what your philos your your your your position is on PE ratios at 200 plus people think it's too high. Some people what they'll do is they'll show the r just like you do but they'll look at the PE where it bounces and uh if it then sets a new range great but if it doesn't it's kind of typically been bouncing amongst this range of pees and then that's how you kind of know are we still in that rangebound or are we going to break through do do you even look at that or that
>> I think it's I think those are probably more reliable in companies that have a set business where it's not rapidly changing and in this case we know that there's so many things that have yet to be materialized that that uh you know I I I don't really spend much time looking at those at all. If anything, it's about Musk's vision. It's about what they have in store and and and you know, if you judge it based on a car company, it would probably be lower than it is. But we know that all these exciting things are are coming right down the pipe. So, uh, you know, I I I don't believe fundamental analysts always get one key thing wrong, is that the stock almost always overshoots what they believe is a meaningful price target to the upside or it goes well below where they believe it should be valued on the downside. And when are they truly happy? It's like either they go to bed upset because it's overvalued and they think there should be mean reversion whenever it gets over their target. or else they always think that it should be it's undervalued and it needs to go immediately up to their target. And so technically we have a big advantage over people that study the stock fundamentally is that you look at things like momentum and seasonality and cycles and use it to make a more accurate prediction of not only where the stock is and what momentum and trends are showing you that it should do,
>> but ignore a lot of what the street is saying of where they think the stock is priced. And with Tesla that's all over the map. So it makes it even more difficult to use fundamentals accurately when you really don't know when all these things are going to be materialized and and and recognized I guess.
>> So earlier you said that the you know surprisingly Tesla has held its own despite the fact that other MAG7s have been uh falling or the struggling. To what extent do you think Tesla's stock is associated with the macro? At one point Elon Musk said that hey it's interest rates man if interest rates go down monthly prices uh for stop buying a car goes down huge upside people start buying and then of course interest goes if we get become into a uh into a riskon environment money's flowing again more people are going to invest especially for innovative companies uh high high PE ratio companies growth companies like Tesla to what extent do you follow that and and how does overlay today. What your what is your prediction for the macro for the next few months and year?
>> Yeah, great question. Look, I I think that any hint of the tariffs being rolled back might very well, you know, be seen as a temporary positive maybe to some companies because they have greater visibility for earnings, but it also could be a very big negative in terms of how it affects uh the deficit. We know that we've made substantial progress on the deficit just in the last six months when the trade balance numbers came out at 29 billion. And so that was directly responsible for the tariffs. And I I bring that up because I think it is essential to view what the risk premia would be if they were to suddenly roll back tariffs and sort of the mess that would be required to sort of try to figure out how to, you know, compensate countries and and and it's just the longer that it goes on without a decision, I think the more likelihood that it nothing will happen. But uh I know most betting markets seem to think there's about a 70% probability that that it will be ruled. uh illegal. And so I I think that is certainly a source of uncertainty for the market. With regards to interest rates, if we see them roll back, I think that we'll see a breakout in the 10-year probably up to 435 or so. And for me, that would be uh sort of an interesting level. I I'll share with you sort of the short-term what we're seeing with interest rates. And you know, with regards to the 10-year, we see that things have been largely pretty rangebound over the last few years. there have there hasn't been a lot of net change in in yields even though despite the swings. So we're largely at the same level we were about 2 and a half years ago which is really in the low fours. Um it's important to use you know trend lines. In this case this hits about 430 435 on the upside but but yields have been rangebound. Ideally, my view is that we we could still push higher to 430, 435, but then we actually pull back to new lows into sometime this spring. And so, I think that comes from either the realization that the administration will certainly elect somebody that's far more dovish with regards to to uh to you know, cutting rates a little bit more quickly. Uh we already have two cuts right now priced on the curve for this year. We've already had three. So, I'm not sure how much more aggressive we can get there because I sense that um you know, the cycles start to say that the Treasury should peak out this year as part of a six-year cycle. If that happens, and I think rates probably go steadily higher between, you know, 2026 and 2028. Uh we already know that housing is largely unaffordable to many young people that now have debt and mortgage rates being at 6 and a half%. Just a couple years ago, they were at three. So due to COVID, the spike in housing went up, you know, 50% across many areas of the country and now it's starting to slow pretty materially in most areas outside of the Northeast. Uh the bottom line is, you know, I I do sense that people like Scott Bassan are very smart in this regard and will do whatever they can to try to get housing prices to be more affordable. We've heard that Fanny and Freddy are going to start purchasing uh you know, mortgage back securities. And I think that's a step in the right direction. But uh I don't know how we lower housing prices dramatically. You know, I I think that that is sort of an interesting quandry over the next couple years. Uh the real estate cycle normally bottoms every 18 and a half years and it bottomed in09. It bottomed in the early 90s. It should be due to actually peak out and be trending lower into like 2029 before bottoming, which would mean the housing prices should be on a a downward, you know, spiral since then. So I don't think of the economy as being all that inflationary. I think that likely is is licked more of a deflationary issue.
>> U the bottom line is that I I sense that we have you know one final chance for mortgage you know for homeowners to probably refinance and that probably happens between you know March and July of of this this year. I think that rates are going to have a a pullback to new lows. And so either that being because of evidence of data which can't really be accurately discussed now because of the government shutdown or that's finally starting to be realized and that that rates uh that the economy on the fringes. We've we've slowed hiring certainly, but but there's no real alarming signs of mass layoffs. Uh we know that the economy still seems to be in in fairly decent shape right now and earnings have come in very very good. So, I think there's a question of whether we can avoid the the traditional four-year cycle that's that happens. Um, I tend to think that we are going to get a correction this year in the stock market, but I am still positive for the year. I think the correction will happen into the spring and probably again into the fall, you know, thereafter. I think that we're going to be in pretty good shape from 2026 into 2028. But with regards to rates, I think we probably, you know, bottom out sometime in the late spring summer and start to turn higher. But I don't know really the extent to which that could be detrimental to you know EV buyers. It I think a lot of it depends on the rate of ascent of rates. It's not about the level. It's more about how quickly do they start to to move up or down.
>> Okay. All right. So a mixed answer I guess in terms of how macro might affect Tesla. Are we in a riskon environment? Are are money starting to flow again or is it like you said kind of like on hold if you look at the Mac 7?
No, I I think it's very much in a riskon period. I mean, look, we we've had now, you know, two straight years of more than 20% gains and now 17% on the S&P. Uh, literally just in the last few weeks, we've seen breakouts back to new all-time high territory and equated S&P, the Dow Jones transports, the Dow Jones Industrial Average. Uh, small caps have broken out as well as midcaps. Uh, the one thing that's lagging is is QQQ and a lot of that's because of MAG 7. That doesn't mean that the we're in a riskoff period. uh trends are still in in great shape and uh you know you look at at where the S&P is now and you know it's it's really difficult to be all that bearish on really what's happening. I mean prices are still you know trending higher. We've not really broken down from November and and on a weekly basis uh trends have been remarkable and the good news for the bulls is that people haven't been fully on board. They haven't bought into this. Many have dug in their heels based on the fear of tariffs or otherwise and and while it is a K-shaped economy.
Go ahead.
>> So there's money on the sidelines that could come in. So like I'm just trying to time it with Tesla. So all that is good news. We're in a risk environment but Tesla's still kind of like you know holding his own but not yet making the big jump. We're about to show huge technology leap proof that it actually, you know, works. This robo taxi works and it's about to go blow up. Money's waiting. Does that set us up? And I think that's what you're saying, right? So if um we're in the, you know, low 400s, if somehow we can get back up to the 500s, if we break through, then great. But if we don't, you know, it's going to be still rangebound for a long time under 500.
>> I will simply share my my forecast for for the year in in a nutshell. And that I do sense it's going to be a year of consolidation, not massive gains. And I'm I'm very much on board with the AI spend and this continuing for years. Um I I don't think it's going to be interrupted dramatically in the extent that we're going to go into a multi-year bare market, but I do suspect that it could be a choppy year and that's just falls in line with the midterm election year cycle. We we obviously have some challenges. my my outlook. I shared one cycle that I think resonates with a lot of people and uh it does call for, you know, a rally into likely late February, March and then we turn down again. We rally into the summer, we pull back into the third quarter uh bottom and probably October and then the next couple years can be very good. So, it's not to say that this is going to be over, but I just think that this is sort of the year that the pause that refreshes with regards to technology after having had a big runup. Now Tesla unfortunately did not participate in that to the extent that maybe it should but I sense that that time is is ahead of us and I think that it's going to start to show us that that evidence uh really over the next 6 to 8 weeks. I think we'll get our first big breakout that can uh show the stock accelerating but it's going to be vulnerable to the same backing and filling I think as is the broader market and it's difficult to say that won't happen this year and it's just going to be straight up all year. I think that's uh that that's not what I expect.
>> One of the questions I always ask you is is Tesla an AI company? Are investors viewing Tesla as an AI company? You compare it now to the Mag 7? You've kind of said the so the Tesla did not, you know, rise as much as all the other Mac 7s did when they when they were being viewed as an AI company. Now the Mag 7's being able to pull back a little bit. People are a little concerned about wondering what's going on with AI, right? when AI is showing huge performance improvements for companies left, right, and center,
>> but then Tesla's still holding his own, but but it never made that a jump. So, it kind of you think that it actually missed it and then now we're going to go through this, you know, choppiness over the next several months. So, is that the message that
>> I I know it's frustrating, but look, I think that you you have to take a victory lap and that the stock has more than doubled since last April. I think that's a huge uh positive. And now the stock is right at the top of its range. And and just in the last week, I mean, it hasn't really shown much damage. And when we spoke about this that the stock honestly held the uh exactly where it needed to on just a minor amount of weakness. And so the uptrend from last April is still intact. The stock is in the process of of really making that breakout, but I know it just feels
>> like uh it should go to 2,000 right away for all the right reasons. And I I just don't
>> sense that it's going to happen as as quickly as maybe you and and most of your followers
>> think is going to be the case. And and yes, Tesla will be vulnerable if the market does pull back this year. Yeah.
>> Uh even if it doesn't last, but but it's likely going to not be immune to to that weakness.
>> All right, let's go through your forecast again because you kind of uh threw out a few things. So you're you're saying why don't why don't you tell me what is your expectation for the Tesla stock? repeat what you did say at the beginning uh for the next couple
>> so look I I think that the stock remains trending higher uh momentum is still in in very very good shape uh you know we have positive momentum and it's really not that overbought and so I'm expecting that over the next month that actually many of the MAG 7 uh will start to bounce from here I don't think we go straight down so I think that Tesla
>> breaks over 500 gets to probably
>> 562 and and yeah we can be hopeful to say the mid 600s or 694.
>> Wow.
>> Uh when
>> thereafter I think that probably by early March,
>> but then it will peak in March again.
>> Okay. Pull back in April. How much would that pull back do you think?
>> Let's say it's at 550. We we can we can speak about that if and when it reaches those targets, but I think it would probably uh you know it would likely give back uh certainly some of the gains that we've seen since just last year. I would say a third to a half of the gains potentially from let's say it pulls back let's say it gets to 694 and then it pulls back say a third of what we've seen then that would take it from 694 to 511. So in in general this is still a very very good it should be a very good year for the company and for the stock but I I sense that it's not going to be
>> the stock has never shown a symmetrical
>> you know it's it's been choppy and then it goes up and it's very volatile and we have to respect that that's going to continue
>> okay
>> maybe for reasons that the company doesn't reflect right and so that that's just uh that's just a fact so
>> I don't know I mean more bullish on than I probably have been. And
>> go ahead.
>> I mean, that's pretty bullish what you just said, right? It's going to go past 500, maybe 650s, maybe even higher. Now, uh, what's your prediction again for the end of the year? So, you said that there's midterm elections. It's going to be kind of this uh not not, you know, you're not 100% bullish yet on AI necessarily going another run at it, but it typically does. that counters your other statement which is typically Tesla stock specifically does rise in the second half of this year. So where are you at with where do you think Tesla will be by the end of 2026?
>> Well, a lot's going to depend on how much progress it can really make in the first quarter for me. Uh, I if I if what I'm thinking is right, then it should be on on the verge of of really making this move over 500, which probably happens over the next couple weeks and start I think most
>> mag seven stocks stabilize and start to have a very serious balance. And with Tesla's case, it's right up near the highs. So, its balance could be a lot stronger than that. Uh, you know, and and and thereafter, I think we will get a correction that likely takes us down into uh probably April. I think that May it starts to rise I think is a good month uh you know probably into the summer and then I sense that normal seasonality would suggest that the fall could also be challenging for majority of stocks and so I think that that um is probably going to take the stock lower into October. Look this is very very tricky and there's a high degree of variance which comes from trying to make week by week or month by month predictions. the the bottom line is that the stock is still uh it's in better shape than it's been in some time given that it is on the verge of breaking out of a you know a massive fouryear four and a half year
>> uh consolidation pattern and yes that is happening and so the volume has been good I sense that that's going to be good for the years to come but I just don't sense it's going to be a straight line so I I suspect that Tesla will be you know we'll succumb to the same pressures that's what happens to the broader market which means we probably get a spring correction it probably means we get a fall correction. Uh timing that will be something you have to use technicals for and keep watch of trends and and you know this stuff always matters when when long-term trends are broken then that normally is very important to the stock and so we want to make sure that the stock continues to to trend higher and for right now it it is
>> nice. Okay, I'm following you. So, let's say that it does uh if it does break through 500, it does get up there, of course there's going to be corrections like you say, but could you uh forecast a little bit of what the new low could be? Like, could it uh I mean, obviously everything anything can happen. I get that whole point, but somebody some people ask me like, "Okay, do you ever think that Tesla stock could fall to 300s or 400s or once it hits past 500 and then it goes back down up and down? Could it fall back to 430? Could is there some sort of new level of a low possibly that you could at least say it's highly unlikely it's going to go beyond this number?"
I would honestly argue that once it gets above 500 uh that likely is going to become the new floor and that is traditionally the way the technical analysis works and that the former ceiling now becomes a floor to pull back. So over 500 I suspect it accelerates.
>> Yeah,
>> I think that volume picks up and then on any correction it likely is going to not undercut that.
>> Okay, good. I mean
>> sounds pretty optimistic in a year that I expect to be very choppy. It's just that the stock is acting uh honestly better right now than many of the Mag 7. And to its credit, that means that yes, it's not a traditional AI stock yet, but it obviously has a lot under the hood
>> that it can unveil that many of these other companies are a few years now past in terms of wondering uh what the demand is going to continue to be, the usage rate on the chips and and everything that could happen. With Tesla, all this is brand new. I mean, it hasn't been new, but it's it's new to be, you know, realized on the balance sheet and and where it's going to begin to make money for the company. So, you know, I think that means that the years ahead are going to be bright. I suspect that the company has a very big run between this year and 20 mid 2027, 2028. Um, always tricky when you mention year-end targets. I think that's great for the media, but it rarely is something that many of us that are technicians really care a whole lot about. It's just more how's the momentum? How's the how's the how's the volume doing on on the rally? And and you know I I think that the stock is uh you know for me is in is in very good shape right now and I think it it's going to push higher.
>> I think that's a fantastic message and uh I learned something. I think that was great. Yeah. That that that it despite Tesla not making a huge jump up the the fact that it hit you know went up to 490s and then it went back to 430s. That's okay because if you look at the Mag 7, it actually surprisingly held its own. And there's a reason. The reason is because people are starting to see FSD and robo taxis making moves. And then this sets it up because if that is the case, hasn't lost its bottom, maybe it can break through. We'll see if it breaks through 500. And if it does, let's cross fingers, right? But that is uh what we're waiting the next time the next time it goes through 500 will should not be the time to sell it. It should be the time to buy it honestly because that's the time we're going to see the real acceleration which sounds uh crazy but that's honestly the way that momentum has worked for decades. Uh, you want to own the stocks that are at or near 52- week highs, not the ones that are plunging to new lows, because it takes a remarkable amount of time for these stocks to claw back, as many know, that try to buy big dips that stocks that go down 50, 60, 70% and think it's going to go right back because it's worth more. Uh, you know, the stock is very well positioned right here. and uh to be acting as well when none of this data has been realized yet. And there's a lot of bears still that are projecting looking at it like a car company. the most of the traditional media still has a very bearish bias on Musk and on on, you know, the car company and they conveniently, you know, pulled this out of the woodwork every few days on, you know, the bad number that came from whatever country and and it's just a little silly to me that people uh haven't taken the time and really done the research and study it and realize uh what's happening, what's going to happen.
>> Perfect. Love it. Appreciate you so much, Mark. It's nice that you add your technical analysis to all the other shows I do and other experts I do, but you've been calling it right a few times and I really appreciate that. So, uh, this says
>> if you want if you want the way I'd like to finish is I'd like to be able to share a couple different uh cycles with you.
>> Yeah. uh that's permissible and and so I have a sort of a daily cycle and a weekly cycle and I'll share that now uh if that's okay and so I think a lot of people like to hear like to see this and and what it shows uh and so this is all based on you know honestly this is more based on magnit amplitude than magnitude so the stock should be in the process of bottoming and literally run up into probably the early part of March And I think this runup is going to be a lot higher than what this graph shows. Uh thereafter it starts to fall, but I don't sense it's going to be too detrimental. Uh the the biggest rise on this daily cycle, and this is based on three different cycles of 295, 115 and 94 days honestly comes after the fall into 2027. And that's a time when I think the majority of gains are going to happen is really and that would also take into account the fact that the stock market itself might be weak into the third quarter. And so you you very well uh you know could have a a bottom and a big big move between the fall of this year and really the spring of 2027. That's what the daily shows. uh the weekly, you know, still shows the stock is having the potential of pushing up into and this just goes back since 2010, of course. And so there's not that many longer term cycles that are present on Tesla. So, you know, I'm I'm personally wondering myself uh what the trajectory is going to be this year. I have to rely more on just breadandbut technicals and structure than I do based on on cycles. But they do indicate that uh the stock is going to have should have a very good run starting this year into you know 2027. And really it's the key is uh you know identifying or staying out of the way if the stock starts to weaken uh while the market is which I think will probably be two separate times one in the spring and then one in the fall.
>> Surprisingly how accurate that analysis was because it's based on while it's based on previous uh data you've kind of like took a look at how a stock behaves. It's really is about how Tesla behaves,
>> Tesla stock behaves and it seems to follow these patterns and then that sort of uh consolidates the idea of why and it's because of Tesla. Tesla is an innovation company. That's why it's doing these things.
>> Well, you know, this software does tend to, you know, find areas where the stock has made prior peaks and troughs and extrapolates out in the future. And it doesn't always mean that's always going to continue to be correct and things change. But uh you know I I do use that as part of my methodology. I think it's important and uh you know I I uh you know it shows that that certainly the time between now and 2027 2028 should be very very bright but uh it could be a choppy year but I still expect this recent consolidation to be resolved higher.
>> Perfect. Thank you again Mark. That's great. viewers have been asking me every once about bring him back. I want to hear what he's thinking now.
>> Thank you so much, Mark.
>> Look, it's all about it's all about risk management and and you know, I try to do that with with charts and and cycles and and looking at sentiment. And I hope that provides some value because I think that when you mirror the fundamentals with the technicals and and find times when both are trending up, they they tend to be the most rewarding time for for investors. And then I think what we normally do is uh we put on the on the description here right how they can subscribe to your FS insights by Fundstrat
>> either on X or really uh through funstrat.com or fsinsight.com. Both of those uh uh are good sources for how you access our research.
>> Perfect. Thank you very much. Thanks Mark.
>> Thanks. Well, have a great day and thank you very much Herbert.
>> I've created a website that is the most comprehensive resource for the Tesla investor. Please check it out. Simply go to my website at herbert.com.