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[Music] [Music] [Music] [Music] Hello, Business Tomorrow Live Trader KP here again. We are following the developments of the Thai stock market after the general election last Sunday. Today, the Thai stock market continues to rise. We have set a record of rising for 3 consecutive days, and we also see continuous buying from foreign investors. In this latest round, foreigners have been buying for 2 consecutive days after the election, which has brought foreign buying to a level of approximately 36,000 million baht. Our trading volume has been substantial every day since the election, reaching over 100,000 million baht. Yesterday it was over 70,000 million baht, and today, before the market closes, the trading volume has already reached almost 50,000 million baht. The liveliness of the Thai capital market makes foreign investors see the Thai market as responding very positively. They also see a better direction for political stability after the Bhumjaithai Party achieved a landslide victory, winning nearly 200 seats. After seeing the election results, will confidence improve in the long term? Is the rise for 2-3 consecutive days sustainable enough to say that the Thai stock market has truly returned? Thailand, once considered the "30th decade," the "sick man of Asia," can it return after this election? Today, we will analyze and look in-depth at both the Thai stock market and global investments after passing the first month of 2026. The world has gone through volatility where many assets have increased, an "Everything Rally," including stocks, gold, and silver. But now, many assets have come down and are undergoing consolidation. What will happen next? We will discuss and look at investments in both Thailand and the world. Today, Guitar is greatly honored to have Dr. Kongkiat Opaswong, Chairman of the Executive Board of AIA Plus Group Coding. Khun Kongkiat, hello. >> Hello. >> Previously, I followed your insights, and you didn't have much hope for the Thai stock market. But after the election, the Thai stock market has rallied for 3 consecutive days. Foreigners are buying with strong volume, and we seem to have a better political direction. After seeing the election results, do you have more hope for the Thai stock market and the Thai economy? >> Uh, uh, the election has made everything clearer. First, the Bhumjaithai Party has won almost half of the parliament's seats, almost 200 seats. And it will be easy to form a coalition government with any party. So, people expect the government to last long. And a long-lasting government means the government can develop projects that benefit the nation and achieve real results. I think this is very important because if we look at past governments, many did not last long, and major projects that would be a new S-curve or projects that would attract a lot of investment into the system were not realized. For example, the Land Bridge Entertainment Complex, etc., did not happen because the government was short-lived, right? Therefore, if people see that this election will bring longer-term political stability to our country, perhaps some people are looking at 4 years, or I don't know if there will be any hiccups along the way, but at least the outlook is brighter. So, naturally, it's normal for investment money to flow in, because the stock market reacts immediately if viewed positively. But if the election results were the same, and the government might not last long, if people see no stability, I think the stock market would go nowhere, right? It might rise briefly and then fall again. If we compare our politics with Japan, it's not different. In the past, the Japanese government also faced ups and downs, until this time, the female Prime Minister of Japan was elected with over 203 votes in parliament, and the Japanese stock market rose significantly. Before the election, people already thought that this Prime Minister would likely last long, satisfying investors and most businessmen. Consider this: the Japanese stock market in the past year has risen by 47%. The US Dow Jones has risen by only 13%. In terms of investment, I have given a lot of weight to Japan in the past 3 years because, first, the stocks were cheap 3 years ago. The stocks were good, and they were cheap, but at that time, the political picture was not clear enough. When the political picture became clear, the Japanese stocks continued to rise. The first wave of buyers bought them because they were cheap, with P/E ratios of 5-6 times, many of them. Banks were trading at half of their book value. Trading firms had P/E ratios of 5-6 times and dividend yields of 7-8%. The second wave of buyers came when economic reforms were implemented, and the government was expected to be more stable. This is the second wave. The third wave is after the election on February 8th, the same day as ours. >> Yes. >> It's a confirmation. Therefore, I think the Japanese stock market is very strong, and it is now at an all-time high. I have seen the Japanese market since before 1990, and it reached a peak of 38,000 and then fell to 7,000. Today, it's over 50,000, which is unbelievable. As for Thailand, we have only risen for 2-3 days. Don't be too happy yet. >> We haven't even passed the 1,700-point mark from the Tom Yum Kung crisis, which was almost 30 years ago, in 1997, right? 29 years ago, we still haven't passed 1,700 points. Today, it's only around 1,400 points. So, what does that tell us? It tells us that okay, the politics are stable, the stock market is good, people are responding positively, and it is believed that there will be direct investment, which is very important, from abroad. Because if the government has stability, large projects will continue to arise, investment money will flow in, and if we reform laws or remove obstacles that deter foreign investors, I think it's a good thing. Right now, I think if the government wants to last long and win the hearts of investors, both Thai and foreign, and the general public, I think there are many things to do now because it's a good opportunity. First, we need to form a cabinet that looks good and is bright, and is free from scandals. This is very important because the executives must be clean-handed and skilled. Second, there must be policies for the short, medium, and long term. We know, I think everyone knows what Thailand's problems are. We are an aging society. Our economy is strong in certain areas, but weak in technology. We are strong in tourism, hotels, health, food, agriculture. How can we add value to what we are already good at? At the same time, we must build businesses where we may be weaker compared to neighboring countries, such as IT technology, to make them stronger. Because we have to admit that I invest in many types of businesses, but we have to admit that startup businesses, which indicate how good our new generation is compared to neighboring countries or whatever, we still can't compete. Even businesses listed on the stock market or unlisted businesses related to IT are not very large, smaller than even software companies in Vietnam or India. I think we need to improve this because we know that the future direction will require a lot of technology. As for the long term, it's often discussed: human resource quality, people development, education. Do our universities teach curricula that match what employers want? Mostly, they say they don't match very well. Therefore, we see many supplementary programs, such as MBA programs, or study trips abroad, etc., because our universities or education system does not teach students to understand practical application directly. There are many things we can do. I think we need to implement large projects to attract foreign capital. Capital inflow is very important. It's an opportunity. If this government wants to last long, I think it needs to have clear policies and attract investors back. This is very important. >> Yes. And to change the fundamentals, after the sentiment has improved, what else needs to be done to change the fundamentals of the Thai stock and capital markets? >> I think this is a reaction. The stock market rise is a reaction reflecting the election results. However, to maintain continuous momentum, as I said, we may need to form a government quickly. The cabinet's appearance needs to be considered, and everyone accepts that they are skilled and clean-handed. And we must quickly announce clear policies on what will be done, whether short, medium, or long-term policies. Short-term policies will likely be prioritized more at this time. But what many people are concerned about in the long term is that continuous spending on handouts is not very good. I think this also needs to be considered. And how to attract talented people while the Thai population is slowly decreasing and getting older every year is not very good for many businesses, such as real estate, which relies on the younger generation to buy condos and houses. We can't rely solely on tourism. Tourists won't come when there's a shock, as we've seen. Chinese tourists have disappeared in large numbers. Therefore, we must attract talented people to work in Thailand. This is important because we must admit that we cannot develop our own people fast enough. We must attract talented people to work, and Thai people will learn from these talented people, just like Singapore attracts talented people. Our country has many things to fix, I can tell you. There are many inefficiencies, many systems that are inefficient. Even laws are numerous. There is no integration. Regulations must be implemented, not just superficial ones. Sometimes they don't help at all. If we want to attract people, we need to make it easier for them to get visas, right? Easier for families, or whatever. They don't have to queue up for a long time at government centers to renew visas or anything. Sometimes I look at it and think it's not very suitable. >> Yes. And specifically regarding the capital market, you previously said you were concerned about the Thai stock market, that it was not worth investing in and not worth raising capital. Even those already in the market are thinking hard about whether to delist. Specifically regarding capital market policies, what would you like to see? >> This is true. Look at the past 10 years. How many good companies have been able to raise capital? 10 years, I'm looking back 10 years, not just 1-2 years, right? Large companies that have raised capital are almost non-existent. Second, most of it has been issuing debentures, and then there have been problems with debentures. And when stock prices fall as we saw before the election, we analyzed it and found that over 400 companies had trading values below their book values, which is a lot. This indicates that stock prices hardly reflect fundamentals. Anyone who bought stocks in the market that day had a lower cost than the company founders, right? Because it was below book value. >> Right. And today, frankly, the stock has risen. This round of increase is only in large-cap stocks. Mid and small-cap stocks have not moved much, only a little. They are still below book value. So, frankly, it's normal for business owners to consider delisting their companies and restructuring them. This is done worldwide, it's not new. If it's below book value, we buy it back, make a tender offer, restructure it, and then perhaps re-list it in 5-6 years. It's not strange, and there's no problem. Banks in our country also provide financing for business owners to buy back shares. Some banks do. They borrow 4-5 billion, 3-4 billion, depending on the size of the shares to be bought back. It's not strange. Before delisting, many people did treasury stock, which means using company money to buy back their own shares. This is done a lot, right? From the largest stocks in our country to mid-sized stocks. Many people don't know what business to do. The existence of treasury stock means that these companies are cornered, don't know what to invest in, have no investment opportunities, so they have to buy back their own shares. They have a lot of money left and don't know what to do. They've paid dividends and still have a lot of money left. No business opportunities, so they have to buy back shares. This is normal. Therefore, what I've said about not investing in Thai stocks for the past 10 years is not wrong, and it's still not wrong today. The rise is due to happiness that the government will have potential for the next 4 years, but we have to wait and see the performance. It's not that this rise means it will continue to rise. We'll have to wait and see the Q4 earnings, the cabinet, their appearance, their policies domestically and internationally, and of course, the impact from abroad, which affects the global economy. We'll see about that later. But at least it's a good thing that first, we saw the bottom, and the stocks have risen with thick trading volume. This is a good thing. >> And what can be done to make our market more attractive for fundraising, or to prevent those who are already listed from wanting to delist? >> I think it depends on the individual. Some people see that this round of stock increases doesn't benefit them. I've seen many companies. Our stocks have risen significantly, but some companies' stocks are barely traded, and they remain dry on the board. >> They must be thinking a lot. We can't stop them. But for some, they might change their minds and think it might be good. And some companies that were planning to list abroad. >> Yes. >> Neighboring countries that like to knock on our companies' doors. >> They might say, "Well, maybe we'll change our minds. Let's wait and see for a while." It has to be like that. I believe that listing Thai companies in Thailand is best. This is my personal opinion. Why? Because at least there are researchers who write research reports on those stocks, and we can visit the companies, touch and feel them, right? And the executives can come and talk to investors. Listing abroad, first, there's almost no one to write research for you. Second, your stock, no matter how big it is here, is still small there. Third, the opportunity for investors to meet executives is difficult, unless they talk via phone or something, but it gives a different feeling. You can't see the company's face, you can't see the working system of the employees, whether they look cheerful or not when you visit the company. It gives a certain feeling, right? Or some people want to visit factories or whatever. >> Or some people secretly go to see restaurants, restaurants of listed companies, to see if they are full of customers or not. It's a different feeling. Listing abroad, unless there's no other option, then you go. I'm telling you, no one wants to go if it's not necessary. And from my own experience, I can tell you. >> Those who go are those who have exhausted all options in their own country. Like before, when Thailand wanted foreign companies to list, nearly 10 Chinese companies contacted me, and one Malaysian company. We looked at them, and they were either too small in China, or no one would buy their shares anyway. But if they listed in Thailand, some people might be interested. But then, the SEC at that time, which said it would open, changed its mind and said it wouldn't open. Let them list in Thailand, so this channel was closed. So we don't have foreign companies listing in Thailand. It will be like that. >> When you say exhausted options, what is the key factor? Liquidity, regulations, the environment, or something that makes it feel like there are no options left in Thailand? >> I think there are many reasons. First, there might be share buybacks, including treasury stock. They buy back shares themselves until the free float is not much. >> Yes. >> And they see no benefit in staying because they don't plan to raise capital from the stock market anymore, right? This might be one reason, and I know many companies are like that. Second, they are small-cap stocks, you could call them decorative. Because, I must say, most of the large capital goes into large-cap stocks. >> Yes. >> Small capital from retail investors might trickle down to these small-cap stocks, so they might benefit, but it's little, right? It's called having no options to attract good institutions or reputable investors, large funds, to hold their shares. That's it. Because the owners themselves, in the long run, probably don't want to hold their own shares for their entire lives. At some point, as they get older, they need professionals to work more, so they have to distribute shares. They can raise capital to reduce their burden, so they don't have to invest more if they hold a large proportion. It's like that. Therefore, "exhausted options" means they might not see the benefit that this sector will be a star sector in Thailand going forward, or something like that. Some people even sell their businesses to others. >> Yes. >> So, the concentration or the concentration in the past has been a problem for other businesses, right? We see the movement of Thai stocks in recent years concentrated in a few large companies, or a few companies that move. The capital is actually small, and it doesn't spread to the remaining stocks. Is this an imperfection of the market environment as well? >> Exactly. I've said this many times. First, about 40% of the trading value comes from robot trading, right? What stocks do robot trading target? Only large stocks with liquidity, right? Those are the most active stocks on the first page. If you look at the first page of the trading screen, right? >> It's those 10-20 stocks. They won't target small ones for robot trading or algorithmic trading, it's impossible because there's no liquidity. >> Yes. >> Right. This is the first one. Robot trading accounts for 40% of the market, all targeting those. Second, retail investors, domestic funds, foreign funds still primarily target those groups. I think 70-80% at least goes there. The remaining 10-20% might be distributed to mid-cap stocks. There's almost nothing left for small-cap stocks, right? Therefore, small-cap stocks are neglected, left alone. You might enter and be active for a week or two, and after that, they might be below the IPO price, or fail to survive, and so on. This is our problem. And our problem is that mergers and acquisitions are significantly less common than before. Mergers and acquisitions are much less common than before. When I first started working, the first merger I did was Central with Robinson. That was about 30 years ago. After that, there were many mergers. >> Right? But in the last 5-10 years, I've hardly seen any. Which is strange. Companies should merge to become stronger in business and expand internationally. If we only sell domestically, the market is only this big, over 66 million people. But if you can go regional, go global, which some companies have already done, like CP Group, Central Group, or whatever. This will be beneficial for them. It's also an observation that mid and small-cap companies. >> Yes. >> Maybe they should consider merging, or large companies merge with mid-sized ones, or large companies merge with large ones. All are possible. To become good companies. Another thing I think foreign capital flows in less is because we don't have new, interesting stock names. I've said this many times in many programs. Right? Look at the top 10, top 20 SET stocks. >> Yes. >> They are the same old names. After 10-20 years, they are still those names. >> Yes. >> None new. Regarding governance, regarding fraud issues, which we have seen frequently in recent years, is it related to foreign confidence? You meet many foreigners, so you must have experienced their concerns and how they look at us. Is it a problem that prevents them from coming to our country? >> That is part of it. Corporate governance is a big issue. A good company, if it falls into the hands of a fraudulent executive, becomes a bad company, right? >> This is a problem that many people fear and cannot control, and may not even know until the problem arises. Some cases come to light because the auditor found something unusual. Cases come to light perhaps because debentures cannot be paid on time without a clear reason. >> Yes. >> If there's a clear reason, I think people will understand and might allow a delay in principal or interest payments. But if the reason is not plausible, then it's about fraud. This certainly causes many people to suffer, not just from stocks, but also from debentures, both together. This is something we need to take good care of. And often, those who do wrong get away with it, flee, and so on, right? It's like this. I think our country's legal system needs more action, not just in the stock market, but in all matters. Many times, we look at it and it's against common sense. There are many incidents. >> Yes. On the opportunity side, Dr. Kongkiat, what business opportunities do you still see in Thailand? Sectors that will grow, things that are already good and might improve, or new S-curves that still exist in the market? >> Personally, I like HealthTech, which is related to health. I believe the whole world is looking at this as a key issue. Not just Thailand. Someone interviewed me from abroad the other day, and when asked about the top 3 important things, I said HealthTech. The reason is that everyone is aging, and many countries are aging societies, not just Thailand. Japan is like that, China is like that, many countries face the same problem. And everyone is living longer. If we look at history, warriors, generals, or national leaders sometimes died at 30-40 because there were no good medicines in the past, right? Now, people live past 80, 90, 100, even over 100, like many Japanese people. Therefore, what they need is technology to extend life and live happily and healthily. I think this is important. There is a lot of technology that I have studied from abroad, whether it's technology to control heart rhythm without surgery, using a patch on the chest, which I saw in China. Even technology for people with dry eyes, wearing a special frame with a microchip that controls tears to prevent dry eyes. There are many such things. Recently, I invested in Israel. >> It's glasses that can scan brainwaves. Because in the future, I see that many diseases can be diagnosed by scanning brainwaves and used for other benefits. For example, when transferring money at a bank, instead of showing a face, a face can be faked. >> Or showing fingerprints, fingerprints can also be faked. >> Right? But a person's brainwaves cannot be faked, they are unique to that person. >> Yes. >> You have to show your face and perhaps wear special glasses with a chip that reads your brainwaves. In defense, in warfare, in weapons, for nuclear or bomb launches, currently, they use passwords in America, right? Secret codes or whatever, like in movies. In the future, it will all be brainwaves, not fingerprints or faces or anything else. I'm giving HealthTech as an example of what can be done. There can be nurses at home to take care of the elderly. Many things can be done. Personalized medicine, like precision medicine, meaning after blood or DNA tests, you know what minerals you lack, and they can mix medicine for you. All sorts of technology. I am particularly interested in this because people should live long and quality lives. This is the first one. The second one, inevitably, is general technology, which I think the world will change a lot in the future. For example, we talk about cloud storage. Will it be very useful in the future? Some of the warehouses store paper. Banks have to store documents for 10 years. In the future, it might all be on chips, if the law allows, right? And our laws also need to be amended to keep up, not still storing paper in full warehouses, and the list of items keeps growing. But I believe technology will help. AI can do many things, write books, right? Sometimes you ask questions, plan a trip abroad for me, etc. It can do it all. I think this will be beneficial and will replace many things that humans do but take a long time. As for the rest, it will be important issues, like food, right? Food is one of the basic necessities. So, what about food technology? Is there enough food for the world? There are many good food companies in our country. These food companies are famous worldwide. What else can make the market grow and increase in value? Many things. We go to Japan, Thai people love going to Japan. When buying fruits or food, everything has a story about the fruit, where it was grown, what the climate is like. The meat, they say, "Oh, how was it raised?" What kind of buffaloes were raised? The meat, when you smell it, it's like... >> Right. Thailand must do the same. It must have a story. >> It means there are many things we can do that are our strengths: tourism, health, health care, hotels, the ability of Thai people with their hospitality, which is our strength. Thai food, which is very famous worldwide. But that's not enough. >> Mmm. >> It needs to be more than that. Look at Korea. South Korea faced the Tom Yum Kung crisis at the same time as us. How far have they progressed? Taiwan also faced the same. Today, Taiwan's export value from companies like TSMC is 18% of the country's GDP. A single company, TSMC. Unbelievable. Korea, when it collapsed, everything was a mess. Today, we see many soft powers. Thai people have to follow them in many ways. We have strengths in tourism, etc., but don't let them be worn out to the point where neighbors like Vietnam or others snatch them away. >> Yes. But can we return to the pattern we see in Japan? It seems there is an opportunity or hope in terms of politics. The Japanese stock market, even though the economy hasn't fully recovered, has returned to a high. Korea, which was once bad, has also returned well. Do you hope to see a new high in the Thai stock market due to clearer politics and more stability? >> Not a new high. I think rising by about 10% would be considered excellent. >> Yes. [Laughter] >> I don't expect more than that because, in terms of investment, I still prefer going abroad. >> Thailand's good periods are usually short. We need to observe for a longer time. >> Right? >> This is just the beginning. How many percent has it risen? >> About 5%. >> That's right. It's almost meaningless after falling 40%, right? And don't forget, how much have foreigners sold our stocks in the past 10 years? >> Yes. >> About 1 trillion baht. 1 trillion baht. >> Right? And how much have they bought back? Is it even 100,000 million? >> 30,000. >> Not even that, right? So they've only bought back about 3% of what they sold. >> Yes. >> It's still meaningless because we don't have new stocks, no new names for them to buy, right? This is the key. >> Yes. Regarding the global investment picture, in the past month, we saw an "everything rally." Stocks rose to new highs in America, Japan, Korea, and the global market. Gold prices also rose, precious metals also rose. But in late January, there was a turning point where gold fell sharply, and the silver market also fell. Tech stocks in the past week, especially the software group, also fell sharply. From the "everything rally" to early February, Dr. Kongkiat, do you see any changes in global asset signals? Is the investment atmosphere less vibrant, or what is the current market mode? >> You ask if it's less vibrant. Probably not. Money is just moving. What made a lot of profit, they reduced their weight and moved to other places. For example, the Magnificent 7 stocks. People started looking at them since the end of last year, saying they probably won't go much further this year. So, some have been sold off, and the money has been used to buy other things, right? Perhaps buying more semiconductors. That's why I said, like TSMC of Taiwan, or ASML of the Netherlands, which makes chips. >> Yes. >> They have risen a lot, right? Including emerging markets like Thailand, or whatever, they benefit from some of these stocks being sold off and more money being put into secondary markets. The market I believe has benefited a lot from America is the Japanese market, very rapidly in the past. So, I think if anyone invests in Japanese stocks listed in Thailand. >> Yes. >> For example, our company has the Nippon Gold Fund from Asset Plus, which I >> I've recommended people to buy for a long time. It has risen a lot and outperformed the index all the time. Because I know the fund manager, who is a friend of 40 years, a Japanese person, a very skilled one. This is an example that those who bought it have likely made over 100%, most of them. >> Yes. >> So, it has spread to markets that are called secondary markets. In the past, America accounted for about 60-plus percent of the global market cap. Thailand was less than half a percent, right? Lately, America is still close, but other markets may have started to grow. This is what's happening. The Thai market might grow a little from 0.3% of the market cap, maybe a little more. >> Yes. So, it's a rotation of capital, right? This sell-off doesn't mean it's over. The vibrant market atmosphere is looking for new assets. And Dr. Kongkiat, where do you see money heading? From gold rising, money rising, US tech stocks rising, where should the global market be heading now? >> I think gold is still something people are interested in. And the stock market, in general, has opportunities. Japan, I think it can still go further. And I think Thailand might also go somewhere. Europe, I think people are starting to look at it because Europe has been bad for a long time. The clear indicator is that large European bank stocks have performed well. They have performed well recently. Luxury brands, which had fallen, have now stabilized and might slowly creep up. >> Yes. As long as Trump's taxes are >> stable, I think everything will fall into place. But now, because it's not stable, Trump is still threatening this country and that country. It makes everything difficult to predict. What will happen next? If he offends him, he will come after him. It will be like that. I think diversification is normal. Look at the central bank of China, they bought a lot of gold, bought it for over 10 months straight, regardless of the price, they just bought it. >> Yes. >> Right? So, if you check how many tons of gold China has compared to America, oh, they are still far behind. >> They are far behind. >> They are far behind. >> They are far behind. >> America has the most in the world, a lot. China is still not catching up. >> Over 2,000. >> Right? 8,000-plus versus 2,000-plus tons, right? Or something like that, I don't remember. >> The difference is huge. So, it will take a long time. But of course, sometimes we see gold or silver correct, which is normal. If you look at the graph, it suddenly shot up almost vertically, almost 90 degrees. How could it not fall? It has to fall. This is normal. Anything that rises like that must fall. It depends on when the big players stop playing. When the big players stop playing, it means retail investors suffer a lot. But some people have a lot of leverage. >> A lot of leverage until they go bankrupt. Like the case of silver, I remember when I was a student in America, there were two siblings, the Bunker family, who tried to manipulate the price of silver until they went bankrupt. This is a lesson everyone remembers if they studied at that time. >> Yes. >> But from an investment perspective, both gold and silver, maybe gold first. Do you think the rise in gold prices is reasonable, or is it purely speculative? The future, as many famous brokers say it will go to $5,900, $6,000 per ounce, will it be a future currency in an era of dollar depreciation? >> It is becoming so because people are losing faith in the dollar. This is clear. And I think this loss of faith causes the currency to weaken because people sell it off. And, uh, is it speculation? There is speculation, and there is real buying. Real buying is by central banks, which are buying it as a national reserve, real buying. Not >> Because central banks of each country that buy it are not speculating, trading in and out, not >> Those who trade in and out are us, and traders at banks. Those are the ones who trade in and out. >> Right? But if central banks buy, they probably won't trade that much. I must say that there is real buying to replace the dollar, and of course, it is mixed with traders, causing prices to fluctuate. This is normal. Therefore, if we look at the long term, if central banks believe that gold is a reserve, wealth, or a substitute for the dollar, it will certainly have value. Not just $5,000 per ounce, or $2,000, $3,000. It will be $5,000. But it will fluctuate up and down, or whatever, depending on the daily or monthly trading momentum. That's a different matter. But it has become that people see this as a store of wealth for the country. >> Which is important, and everyone gives it more importance. Many central banks are increasing their gold holdings. This is true. Therefore, to say that it will stop, it won't stop. What will stop is stopping holding too many dollars. >> Yes. And regarding gold, or famous hedge funds, they say that besides central banks buying, there are also private wealth investors, or high-net-worth investors, who are putting more money into gold. You probably interact with this group a lot. Is it true that there is increased buying of gold from high-net-worth private groups? >> True. Here's how I think about it. Predicting gold prices is quite simple. Suppose they set a goal that high-net-worth individuals or private wealth want to hold 5% of their portfolio in gold. >> Mmm. >> How much more gold do they need to buy? Understand? >> For example, Company A >> Like Goldman Sachs or whoever, suppose they manage $100 billion US dollars. If it's 5%, it means we're talking about $5 billion US dollars in gold. >> Or 3%, it might be $3 billion dollars or whatever. >> Yes. >> And then they look at their clients to see how much they are actually holding. Suppose they are holding very little, which means there must be demand of this magnitude. Then they look at each central bank. Oh, how much will each of them reduce their dollar holdings? Then they calculate and will know how many more tons they need to buy, how much more they need to buy, and then calculate how much the price of gold will be pushed up by that quantity. This is not difficult. It's a simple mathematical calculation. Therefore, this kind of situation occurs. Will gold lose its value? Right now, I don't see it. Because there are still factors like war, various things that cause people to feel insecure. And many people are afraid to hold certain currencies, right? >> And the fact that they hold Bitcoin or something, its price has fallen, making them scared too. Therefore, as options become fewer and fewer, gold becomes more prominent. >> Yes. Regarding the theme of trading gold, as you mentioned, both dollar, dollar, basement. But you invest heavily in America and have good knowledge of the US market. Will the dollar depreciate to the point of declining as the world's primary currency? I still don't see it. The dollar will still be the world's primary currency. The yuan is trying to replace it, but it takes time. >> Yes. >> Because capital control, the free flow of money in and out, is an obstacle to it becoming a reserve currency that everyone trusts. This has not happened yet. >> Yes. >> And if we look at other currencies besides the dollar, there are only the euro and the yen, right? They are too small, still very small. Okay, gold has replaced some of it, but when trading internationally, will they pay with gold? No, they have to pay with money. And what currency will they use? Right? If China trades with Russia, they might have an agreement that rubles and yuan can be exchanged, right? >> But if Japan buys from America, you have to pay America with dollars, or Thailand buys from America, buys from neighboring countries, or Japan, or whatever, it's all quoted in dollars. Therefore, it's impossible for the dollar to depreciate to the point of not being used as a reference currency for trade. I don't see it yet. And as long as America remains the largest economy in the world. >> Yes. >> That event will not happen. What about US stocks? The market has continuously reached all-time highs. Tech stocks are very popular, but this year, we've seen more volatility in this group. Some companies announced good earnings, but their stocks fell. Especially in the software sector recently, prices have fallen a lot. Do you still look positively at US stocks? And what is happening in the market lately? >> As I mentioned at the beginning, America has risen a lot. Therefore, many people have started to reduce their weight. I myself have reduced my weight in US stocks for a while. In the past, I might have said I have, not including Thailand. >> Yes. >> Perhaps America accounted for 60-70%, Japan about 15%, Europe and Hong Kong about 15% or 10% each, or something like that. But today, it's not like that. Today, I have less than 35% in America, 30% in Japan. >> Yes. >> I have almost as much in Japan as in America now. >> Yes. >> And the rest will be Hong Kong, Europe, and so on. >> Yes. >> Therefore, it depends on the situation. There are still many good US stocks, but they are saturated. We have to wait for the earnings to show for 1-2 quarters, then perhaps increase or decrease the weight, or whatever, and then we'll see. Right? This is the key. >> Yes. But the tech stocks that people invest in a lot, there's an AI race phenomenon. Do you think it will lead to a good future, or on the other hand, will it be as people fear, that there will be a bubble, a burst? Some people will fail, and some will go bankrupt from massive investments. Yes, that will happen. Don't worry about that. >> It's not intended for everyone. >> Even existing businesses today, among the Magnificent Seven, some may not meet expectations. For example, a company's cloud system might not have as good numbers as they expected. It's all possible. Investment, and I'll tell you one thing, even if they give a lot of numbers, but when it comes down to it, if it looks bad, you might reduce the investment value. I think this is important. We have to adjust according to the situation. It's not that if they say invest $100 billion or $200 billion US dollars, it will all be invested. It's impossible. They are estimating projects to be invested in the next few years. But when the time comes, if it's not good, they might not invest, or if fundraising becomes difficult, issuing debt becomes difficult, or raising capital becomes difficult, they might have to reduce the amount. Or if the business is not good, they might sell it off entirely. Therefore, the numbers everyone is talking about are huge. >> Yes. >> If everyone invests, it might be called oversupply. Let's put it that way. Oversupply, and it might be too much, resulting in returns that are not worthwhile in the short term. This is definitely true. I believe that the executives of these giant companies are smart. I can tell you. >> Yes. >> Otherwise, they wouldn't have built companies this large, right? Like Meta, I look at Mark Zuckerberg's management style, and I know he's very dedicated. My friend works there, my nephew works there. Sometimes, at 3:00 AM, an email still comes in, saying, "Are you sleeping at 3:00 AM?" [Laughter] When they fire people, they fire 10,000 people. When they hire, they hire 2-3,000, 5,000, and then poach from other companies. These companies work dynamically, I can tell you. >> Yes. But I understand that you were probably among the first in Thailand to invest in this business group. Do you see signs of winners? That the market considers Google to be the winner, Alphabet looks like the biggest winner, because Warren Buffett bought it. What are your thoughts? Is it clear yet who is the winner in the AI and tech battlefield? >> I think most of them will do well. Let's put it that way. >> Personally, I've liked Google for a long time. Why? Because they've taken away everyone else's advertising. >> I follow. I like Google and Meta, these two companies, a lot, because they've taken away all the advertising. >> And the miracle is that Google doesn't do things that are, well, maybe outdated now. Like, if you don't know anything, you just ask Google. Google Maps, etc. >> Yes. >> I'm just thinking, if one day they charge for it, Google Maps, suppose we say we want to travel from point A to point B. >> Right? You have to pay one baht, right? You want to see the map, you have to pay one baht. Oh, I think one day they'll make billions. >> Right? That's all. No need to think too much. >> For now, they're using it for free. They still have weapons to generate a lot of revenue. So, I think companies that can take away advertising and make the lives of ordinary people around the world easier. >> Yes. >> Those companies are the winners. Apple is also a good company, but people see it as selling phones, devices, plus apps that generate recurring revenue, which keeps growing. It's good up to a point. But if you ask if there are new products, I haven't seen any yet. >> What about Nvidia? It's said to be like selling shovels. Whoever wins, Nvidia is still in the early stages. What are your thoughts on Nvidia stock? >> It's good, but it has risen a lot, right? These upstream players, there are many, like semiconductor companies, I mentioned, Taiwan Semiconductor, a global giant, right? And okay, there's Nvidia, but don't forget, along the way, there's also ASML. >> Yes. >> Which is a machine that uses lasers to make very small, multi-layered, complex chips, which no one else can do. >> Right. >> Yes. >> These are upstream players. They will all benefit, no matter who does what. It's like many people say that in the future, data centers, the power to supply data centers will be winners. They will all benefit. >> Right? So, nuclear power plants and so on might be something investors look at, but not expecting them to have wildly fluctuating profits. It's just selling energy. It will be like that. >> Income will be stable. >> Grow with the industry, or whatever. That will be another type. So, these are definitely, as you mentioned, winners. No matter how they compete, these are upstream players. They can sell to everyone. >> Yes. >> No problem. The rest will compete among themselves. >> Yes. What about Tesla? Besides the Elon Musk empire, soon there might be an IPO of SpaceX, and then XAI will be added. This is another global megatrend. Does it look like it could be a long-term winner? >> I think Elon Musk is one of the geniuses in the world. In this business, there was Steve Jobs who invented the Apple mobile phone. >> And there is Elon Musk, whom everyone acknowledges as a genius. The rest might be people who >>
Apply what these people came up with. >> Uh, personally, I believe in Elon Musk's craftsmanship. Looking at his work, no one can argue that he's not skilled or that he copied others. No one would say that. It's just that the valuation, his stock valuation, is it too high or what? That's another issue. But I think that his creation of new things has changed our world a lot. If you say it like that, it has changed our world a lot. I believe that what he thought of has immense value. I also believe that for the businesses he has built, investors will chase and invest. Just make sure to look at the price carefully. >> Yes. Finally, regarding your own portfolio, Professor, looking at the atmosphere of global assets and the current adjustments, with periods of rise, fall, and steepness, which assets are you interested in, and which markets are you currently giving the most weight to? >> Uh, in the short term, if it's short term, the stock market that might need to trade a bit faster could be the Thai stock market, right? Because it's >> Yes. >> It's an adjustment upwards. I might give it a considerable weight after the election. >> But if you look at the stable portfolio, America is still number 1. >> Yes. >> As I said, around 35%, not including Thailand. >> Yes. >> And Japan, we have about 30%. The rest is Hong Kong, Europe, Vietnam, and a little bit of Taiwan. >> A few names, a little bit, but China will be a lot. China and Hong Kong will be a lot, about 15%, for example. And Europe is about 15%, something like that. >> Yes. Do you have gold and crypto, Bitcoin? >> Gold, yes, but I would say I have a portion that I just hold, doing nothing. But the cost is very low, it's been a long time. >> Right. >> Yes. >> The rest >> Traders come in, trade, trade out. That's their business, their fun. >> Yes. >> Some people trade gold and silver in and out. Some don't have time, so they buy gold funds or silver funds that we already have. I think it's easier, no need to trade. Buy, hold for a while, and if satisfied, sell. Yes, we have funds. Actually, I've started diversifying into many things, even defensive funds. We already have defensive stocks in America, but sometimes we don't want to pick stocks, so we buy funds instead. We buy a little, buy space funds, spacecraft funds, related to >> Yes. >> The future world, we have this fund too. >> Yes. >> So, spread it out a little bit here and there. But mainly, as I mentioned, it's the stable ones. >> America, Japan. >> Uh, Hong Kong, Europe. These are four stable markets. I've structured my portfolio to be stable, not doing much with them. And the rest >> Yes. >> It depends on the traders, they trade. >> Yes. At the end, Professor, are there any factors you are watching out for? Listening to you before, you mentioned concern about a correction or market adjustment after asset prices have risen a lot. However, there was a major correction, a sell-off, at the beginning of the year for gold and stocks. Is that considered over, or are you still cautious about potential adjustments in the remaining period of this year? >> There must be adjustments all the time, don't worry. I've been in this business for 30-40 years. Sometimes everything looks good, but when it's time to adjust, it adjusts. Sometimes without reason, sometimes with reason. Reasons for adjustment exist, or there are no reasons because it's too expensive, so it adjusts on its own. This is normal. Therefore, we must understand what causes the adjustment. If we don't understand and panic about something without reason, we will be harmed, right? Many times, as I like to give examples, in the past, there was a bombing on the London Underground. Thai stocks fell more than in England. >> Yes. >> Is there a good reason? We have to ask this first. >> Yes. >> No. Or even in the early days when I started working, the Dow Jones experienced Black Monday. Thai stocks fell for I don't know how many months. You might not have been following the stock market then, but I remember hearing stock prices reported on the radio. We would listen while driving. >> Wow, the whole market crashed. It continued like this for several weeks, let's say. >> Yes. >> It fell without reason, right? After that, it recovered, but it took a very long time to recover. This is called a market that is not mature, not yet growing, investors don't understand anything. America falls, and it falls with it. So, corrections are normal. If the correction is because stocks have risen a lot, like gold, suppose gold rises in a straight line, a 5% or 10% drop is normal. But if it drops 20-30%, that's not normal. We need to find a reason, what happened. >> But during the decline, we also need to start looking for reasons. >> Is it a normal correction? Is it a normal adjustment? If yes, then it's okay. >> Maybe if you have extra money, you might average down, right? But if >> If you think it's not normal, then you have to flee too. >> Yes. >> So, these are investment lessons and experiences, including Professor Kongkiat's views on Thai stocks, global stocks, and various assets today. Thank you very much, Professor, for your time. You've given us a full hour today. Thank you very much. Thank you, Professor. Yes, thank you. Goodbye. >> Goodbye. I hope everyone has received packed information, Professor Kongkiat's perspective on the Thai stock market, the principles of elections, the rise, the inflow of foreign capital, and what we still need to question regarding government formation, the stability that is expected, down to what is more important than just creating stability, which is taking action in terms of policy to achieve practical results, to make the economy grow, to give us new engines for growth, to give us rules and regulations that build confidence in the world, and to create people who are important drivers of the economy in the future. There are indeed good signs in the market, but it's not 100% certain that the market will turn around completely or that we will reach new highs. It still needs to be proven, but with improved sentiment, Professor Kongkiat sees better opportunities in the Thai stock market as well. If we improve governance, liquidity management, and trading systems simultaneously, along with creating policy continuity in the economy and solving structural problems we have had for a long time, there are still opportunities and hope. Three groups that are global trends and also opportunities for investment in Thailand. These business groups are still a source of hope: the health group, which comes with global megatrends; the technology group, which connects us to the world; and the business sector, which is the foundation of our strength, such as the food group and businesses related to tourism and hotels. This segment is still a strong point of the Thai stock market. However, beyond the Thai stock market, interesting global assets that Professor Kongkiat has emphasized and has a high weighting in his portfolio are, of course, America. But because America is expensive, Professor has reduced the weighting from about 60-70% down to 35%, but it is still the largest portion of the portfolio. There is Japan, Hong Kong, Europe, and Emerging Markets like Vietnam and Taiwan. These are also parts of the diversified investment. As for assets that the world is very interested in, such as gold, Professor Kiatt views that the recent rise in gold is mainly due to risk reduction from the weakening of the US dollar. And this trend is likely to continue. Diversification away from the dollar, dollar depreciation, and dollar weakening will continue to be factors driving gold, along with geopolitical risks. However, it is unlikely that the dollar will depreciate to the point where it is no longer the world's number 1 currency, or that America will cease to be the economic and financial superpower of the world. Therefore, from the perspective we see, we can say that risk diversification or looking for opportunities in various assets at this juncture is important. There are no losers or winners, but there are assets that have advantages and disadvantages at certain times and in certain phases. This is a model from successful investors, both globally and in analyzing the Thai stock market, which we are sharing today. That's all for this live session. Thank you everyone for watching Professor Kongkiat and the team. We bid farewell. Goodbye.