The Toronto Raptors offense is built for the NBA playoffs...

Welcome to Pensair Basketball Live. As we are just days away from the Toronto Raptors game one Saturday afternoon match up against the Cleveland Cavaliers, I have been eagerly, no, steadfastly. I'm not sure the word, but I have been putting together my Friday preview for this series for the entire channel. Not just for the members, but for the entire channel. And it is going to be in-depth and I'm still not sure if it's going to be a live or a video, but I have discovered a lot of really fascinating numbers and through all of the film work that I've been, you know, again, steadily doing over the last 3 days, I've just been in research mode.

I don't want to speak out of turn. I don't want to offer a definitive prediction. If you follow me on multiple platforms, you've heard me say the Raptors have a chance, the Raptors don't have a chance, it's probably going to be a six-game series. The Raptors can win in six, but they can't win in seven. But then you've also heard me predict the Raptors in seven. I'm all over the place right now. It kind of depends on what part of the day you catch me.

The point here is I do not expect ESPN to be right. To those who are living under a rock. Let me fill you in. 12 ESPN analysts were pulled on the results of this series. None of them picked a sweep. That's good. But none of them picked a Raptors win. That's 12-0. Asked about this little funny thing today. Scotty Barnes just an hour ago met with the media two hours ago and he was said, you know, he was asked point blank, how do you feel about being an underdog? My man did not know that they were underdogs. He didn't even know. He's like, it's he his direct quote is that [ __ ] don't matter. Asked about whether or not he's going to be a playoff riser. Interestingly enough, he did that typical Scotty thing where he kind of scratches his head, smiles, and says, "We'll see."

Scotty knows what is in store for the Cleveland Cavaliers. But do the Cleveland Cavaliers know what is in store for the Cleveland Cavaliers? There's a lot of reasons to pick against the Toronto Raptors. Let me defeat all of those reasons right now. The Cavaliers have more experience. Each of their backcourt players by themselves have more experience than your entire starting lineup as it pertains to playoff high leverage moments. Yakob Purle has only for one year of his life been a starting center in a playoff situation. The only other time in his peak or prime that he's even been remotely in playoff conversations was in the playing game against the Chicago Bulls. Their backcourt production is off the charts. It's possibly the best back court in the NBA.

There's a lot of stylistic overlaps between these two teams in terms of how they play, but there's also a lot of stylistic differences. And maybe, you know, styles make fights and sometimes it doesn't really matter if you're a better team than the other team. It just means against everybody. It means who are you against that team? The Dallas Mavericks come to mind against the We Believe Warriors. That switching scheme and the athleticism of that Warriors team frustrated Dirk Nitzky to no end. And no, they were not a better team than the Dallas Mavericks, but they were in that series and that's what matters here. So, the most important thing is to realize how does a team like Toronto that lives in the paint beat a team that is among the best teams in the league at stopping paint points? Let's talk about it.

So, first of all, I have uh I have developed a bit of a nickname around uh basketball circles, and it's one that I'm leaning into. Initially, I I humbly refused it, but I can't help but realize I'm right a lot. So, here's my predictions from the panel yesterday on what would happen in the playing games. We're going to talk about the plan, don't you worry, LaMelo, all that stuff at the end of this, but we're going to save that for the end. And today, I want to really just hone in on why the Toronto Raptors offense is actually uniquely positioned for the playoffs. And I'll give you some numbers that might ease some of your worries that this is going to be a Molly whopping. But here's what happened on the panel yesterday. And I just want to give you a little bit of a Wait a second. I'm not even sure I can play this. Can I play this? Yeah, I can play this. Never mind. I took the music out. Okay. Pull myself up. And that side is on the other Grand Canyon of Common Sense. I will take the horns. Mars, who you got? Ben, who you got? >> Um, I'm inclined to say Portland. Phoenix been a better team, but I I can see a Portland upset here. I really like Donovan Glingan. >> Pid, >> what's the rebounds for Musa? >> 10 and a half. >> 10 and a half. Yeah, I'm going to give him a more on that.

I mean, I'm not perfect. I predicted the Raptors to win 50 games. They won 46. I'm not perfect. Don't set your clock by me. But I think I put in a lot of work into my predictions and I take a lot of pride in being right. There's something in my brain that says if you know what you're talking about, you're better at predicting the future than people who don't. People talk out of their butts all the time. Oh, Denny Abdia had 40 41 points. Denny Abdia's top 15 player. This is reactionary. You know, it's reflective analysis and really poor reflective analysis at best. But knowing before the game that Denny is going to give problems to how Phoenix plays defense, I think is the real flex. Knowing when Denny was playing for Washington that the Toronto Raptors should have traded for him, that to me is the scouting flex. And I think like a scout. I want to think like a scout. And right now, I want to think like a coach. I want to think about how what the Raptors do punishes playoff teams. This is not Cavs dependent. This is going to be Raptors focused. What do the Raptors do well? So, let's talk about what these dinos do well because they do a lot of things well.

Number one, while they are not really optimized in terms of shot quality in the mid-range, they are by far, in my opinion, the best mid-range shooting team in the NBA. They lean into this heavily. Their two best players are really dominoes in this situation. And quite frankly, Scotty Barnes, isolation efficiency has been something that has not been talked about enough this off this season. He's one of the more efficient isolation players in the league this season. And again, not something you think about when you think about Scotty Barnes. Does that mean he's Shay Gildas Alexander? No. It means that Scotty is exceptionally good at punishing bad defenders in isolation. And the Cavaliers have a rolodex of bad defenders on the perimeter. So if the Raptors go big, Scotty could have a massive series. They also don't have a great matchup for Brandon Ingram. There are certain counters that they can throw. Dean Wade, Evan Mobley, but I do think that both matchups can be deficient in the sense that Ingram is just not a player that you have a lot of great game plans for. There's a reason he's a two-time all-star. There's a reason he got all those Kobe comparisons. And Brandon Ingram has also been shooting 38% from three. So that could also be a big thing in this series. Okay, three-point heater.

Now, all season we have heard that the Toronto Raptors are a really bad three-point shooting team. And for most of the season, both in terms of volume and efficiency, the Toronto Raptors were really bad three-point shooting team. They have hovered between 29th, 30th, 28th. And quite frankly, most of those games, even during their nine-game winning streak, they weren't shooting. They weren't on a heater from three. Now, earlier in the season, it was a little bit better because Scotty and uh Ingram were shoot, sorry, Scotty and R.J. were shooting well from three, but when those guys went cold, the floor fell from underneath because a lot of the guys that you banked on shooting really well haven't shot really well. Emanuel Quickley, I would argue, has underperformed at around 37 38% hovering around that for the season. His open catch and shoot percentages have not been great. Scotty obviously struggled this year, although I will flex that Scotty Barnes ended up shooting the ball better from three than Grady Dick this year. Grady has perhaps been the biggest disappointment, but honestly, even his disappointment pales in comparison to Oabaji, who was getting regular regular minutes for the Raptors during the first half of the season, and he was shooting 18% and he was taking a pretty significant diet of his shots from three because he walked into the season following a 40% three-point shooting season. And there's really a reason that the Raptors opened up the corners for him to shoot, but he just couldn't make them. And so when your corner shooter is open, that means the defense is conceding that shot. You must make them pay. And the Raptors for whatever reason this year, whether it be Scotty, RJ, Ochi, Grady, they have not made teams pay for packing the paint. Now, if teams are going to load up on Ingram, the corners are going to open. And this is going to be a huge part of my thesis in this video, which is that the Raptors are possibly. And again, I I say this with a little bit of humility because obviously we haven't seen this in the playoffs. I'm going to make an argument that the Raptors are the best nail team in the NBA. So, let's and and three-point shooting and nail efficiency are very very uh linked. So, they're sixth post all-star break in three-point shooting. A lot of that has to do with I would say Brandon Ingram. A lot of it clearly has to do with Jacobe Walter. Some of it clearly has to do with Elijah Martin and I think just better three-point shots are being generated.

Now, this is not an exceptional road record. I would argue the Cavaliers themselves have a much better road record. You're not going to I mean, I think it's the Miami Heat that have just a really terrible road record and I think that showed last night. So, I think this is just a moment to realize that yes, the Raptors are a very young team, but it's actually a really good thing that they're starting this series on the road. Not only are they starting a series in which they are heavy heavy underdogs, whether Scotty Barnes acknowledges it or admits it or cares about it and says, "Don't give a shit." It doesn't matter. The rest of your teammates may not be as, you know, bulletproof in their in their mindset as you. Believe me, the Cavaliers feel a lot of pressure. We talked about it on the panel yesterday. What is the team that is under the most pressure in the Eastern Conference? And I think you'd be crazy if you didn't think it was either the Cavaliers or the Knicks. These are bloated rosters. These are very expensive. They've made their win now moves. They're veteranladen. They have young stars that are locked up for a long time. I would argue the Magic are under a lot of pressure tonight, too. At least the Sixers have the baked excuse of Embiid is not playing. But the Magic, my god, after trading that many first round picks for Desmond Bane to get bounced in the playin, that would be especially following what happened against the Boston Celtics, I think the Magic would probably be third. Among the teams that are under like no pressure in the Eastern Conference, I could argue the Hawks and the Raptors are absolutely playing with like free money. The the not the Celtics, the Hornets as well. These three teams specifically are background characters until they prove otherwise. And you may think this is a reason to not care. But I'm going to prove to you in this video that actually the Raptors have a really sneaky path to the Eastern Conference Finals. I'm not picking them to go to the Eastern Conference Finals. Don't come at me later and be like, "Rob, didn't you say they're going to go to the Eastern Conference Finals?" No, I am hedging very hard and trying to tell you that don't also don't come to me when they are in the Eastern Conference Finals and say this you said this could never happen. No, I'm never going to say that can never happen because when you have what the Raptors have actually you have a chance in every series with the exception of probably probably OKC. If there's one team in this league that I would say, okay, you I don't see a world in which you can beat OKC because they do the things well that you really don't know how to stop. And then the other team would be probably WBY and and the Spurs. And the third team is probably Boston. If there's three teams where I'm just like pretty confident you're not going to get through those teams. And you know what? If Boston gets smoked in the second round, you don't have to deal with that. If OKC or the Spurs get upset, who knows, man? you might walk into the finals and face the Denver Nuggets at which point you will have a chance. You will have a chance against the Nuggets. You can play the Nuggets. You can beat the Nuggets. And that's what I'm saying. Like, no, I'm not predicting a championship, of course. But I'm also not saying that there's a less than 0% chance that they're going to that they could win one. I think the Raptors right now need to acknowledge that they have a chance to do something very special and they need to not blow it with this whole like development attitude. That being said, they can totally win one of these two games on the road. And I think winning one of these two games on the road will be paramount to their success. I do however also think the Raptors have a chance in a game seven on the road because again, James Harden's propensity to show up very very small in those moments could be a big big thing because even if he doesn't show up small, you can't be one of his teammates into game six thinking he will show up in that game seven. That adds a lot of pressure.

Now, the Raptors may be the sixth best three-point shooting team in terms of efficiency after the All-Star break, but they are still 29th in three-point volume. And if you're thinking, why can't they just take more threes? Well, it's just not how the Raptors play offense. It's they have and this could be to their benefit because if you look at the team that takes the most threes, it almost killed them last night. and that was the Hornets. There was an old theory 15 years ago that a jump shooting team or a three-point shooting team couldn't win. And the only teams that have ever won playing that way are the Golden State Warriors and the Boston Celtics. I would argue the Celtics won perhaps despite their three-point shooting at times, but they also had one of the best three-point shooting teams of all time. And they just had that incredible volume and spacing that opened up all the downhill attacks. And you could argue obviously that the Golden State Warriors probably had the best three-point shooting talent of all time and generational defense and rim pressure and mid-range uh sorry postplay playmaking to make it all come together with the greatest shooter of all time anchoring it all in Steph Curry. This is not a model for success. Okay, high three-point shooting volume means high three-point shooting variance. And the Raptors probably will not have this problem. They are however pretty good at defending threes which is good. They're they're pretty good at all of that. So they are two-way post allstar game. Again earlier in the season there was that lull where the Raptors offense fell off a cliff. RJ Barrett was out and Yaka Purle was playing poorly or not playing at all and the Raptors offense started to tank into like 29th range. We started the season out top 10. Things were going really well when Scotty was locked in and hitting threes and R.J. was hitting threes and Yakob was rolling a little bit. We did hit a moment there where we were a top 10 offense. We end the season as a top 10 halfcourt offense. We end the season as the most frequent transition offense. But post Allstar break, we've been a roughly if you could average these two numbers out, we're pretty much like a top 11 team on both ends. And I think that that's pretty good because if you look at teams like last night, you look at the Charlotte Hornets and how much LaMelo got hunted, how much Tyler Herro got hunted, I don't know if there's any player on this roster that you can hunt the way those guys got hunted. You can hunt RJ off the ball. You can run him off screens and if he in fact does draw that James Harden matchup, it's going to be a little bit difficult. I hear that. But still, I don't think anyone is on the level of defensive liability that sometimes LaMelo and Tyler Herro can be. And hopefully there's enough scheme and help in the gaps. Ingram again, a lot of people malign Ingram for his defense this year. I think he has been more than sufficient as a rim protector and I think, you know, he'll be he'll be paramount to to helping Yaka Purle out on the back end, especially if Scotty draws a perimeter match up like Donovan Mitchell or James Harden in spurts. So there is no significant weakness here.

The Raptors are a solid passing team. They have been all year. They generate assists. They farm assists, but they also don't turn the ball over a lot. They're fourth in assist to turnover. The other three teams ahead of them are Miami, Denver, and San Antonio. This is good. San Antonio has great guard play. Miami questionable guard play, although you could argue Tyler Herro, and Norman Powell present a lot better. But I think Miami is just one of the best coach teams in the league, even though they don't have the greatest talent. And they also have, of course, Bam Adabio who's one of the better passing centers in the league. And then obviously Denver in this situation, Denver and Toronto actually have a lot in common in terms of like the nail and mid uh mid post frequency stuff because of Yokic and Scotty and and Ingram like all operating in that zone a lot. But whereas Denver gets a lot of assists out of those zones, Toronto gets a lot of points out of those zones. So once again, Toronto is a pretty damn good passing team. There isn't a player on this team who is a notoriously bad playmaker. Sandro is capable. CMBB is capable. Jacobe is capable. Jamal and Scotty are great. RJ is capable. Brandon Ingram is teetering between good and very good at most times. Emanuel Quickley is sufficient. RJ Barrett is good. Like again, this is a this is a passing team that solves problems in real time.

What about the catch and shoot post allstar break? This number has gone all the way up to ninth in the NBA. 39th p uh 39% in terms of catch and shoot percentages. And I think if Ingram and Barnes are going to draw help at the nail as much as they are, their reads out of these situations, finding guys like Jacobe, possibly Emanuel, possibly Jamal Shed, possibly Mamu. This three-point shooting is going to help the Raptors keep up. Now, what about paint touches? The Raptors Ben Bevani often comes on, talks about paint to great. Darko talks about paint to great. Evo talks about paint to great. Everyone on this team has talked about paint to great at one point or another in one interview or another. Why do you want to get the ball in the middle of the floor? Because you sink the defense into the middle, especially if you have capable finishers like RJ Barrett, Scotty Barnes, Brandon Ingram, Yaka Purle. These are all guys with the exception of uh you know, sometimes RJ struggles in this zone to to finish efficiently, but none of these guys are like notoriously bad finishers like Jamal Shed. And so by collapsing the defense into the middle, you're able to spray out to shooters. again, are the Raptors literally a coniple or a Klay Thompson away from, you know, completely knocking this [ __ ] out of the park? Probably. You know, uh, but I think with the ascension of Jacobe Walter, provided provided he stays hot, I think you need to watch trend lines a little bit more carefully and not judge the Raptors too much for who they were in October, November, they're a team that puts in a lot of work. They're obviously a team that got a lot a little bit tired. Hopefully, this is a team that's a little bit more rested coming into the playoffs than they were, you know, midway through the season when their three-point shooting really tanked. And honestly, I I I care about trend lines. I I could have told you yesterday that Khan Canipple was going to struggle. He's been struggling for 10 12 straight games now. And LaMelo's struggles are completely different. You know, I have no idea about that. But Khan's struggling was was predictable. You know, he's he's been cold for a bit. Is Khan Canipple Are the lights too bright for Keniple? No, you [ __ ] The con the lights are not too bright for Coniple. This guy's played in a lot of bright light games in his life. He's just dog tired. He's a rookie. He's 20 years old. He's playing like what his 80th game. He's played so many minutes this year. He is dead tired. And if you've seen with Scotty where he shot like 18 19% from three. Yeah. A guy like Coniple can go two for eight, two for nine, one for 10, whatever from three in a in a in a game like this because he's dog tired. And this is why I think the, you know, the the pace that the uh, you know, the pace that they've played with, how above their heads they've played defensively, how active they're switching stuff is with Charlotte, you know, guys burn out. They're very young team, but you know, at some point you're batting above your head. You've played above your head. That takes a toll on your body. So the, you know, the Charlotte Hornets, I think what you saw yesterday was just a very tired team that got bailed out a little bit by Miles Bridges and Kobe White. And, you know, hopefully hopefully, you know, they're going to make it through. My my prediction for today, I don't really want to, you know, I I'm not encouraging anyone bet on this or anything. Please don't ever ever ever bet on what I say, but I do see Orlando winning today. And so, it will be Charlotte versus Philly, I think. Again, I could be wrong. I I really haven't thought about this too too much. And I have no idea, you know, the connection, you know, the situation with Jamal Mosley and how toxic or how broken that is. It could be that the Magic just come out and try to embarrass him and lose by 30. But I think after that loss against the, you know, the Celtics, given that Embiid is out, given how talented they are, I just I don't think so. But hey, man, maybe Nick Nurse pulls a rabbit out of his hat. I don't know. Um, but yeah, I'm I'm thinking it's going to be Philly versus Charlotte. And if Charlotte's jump shots fall, then Charlotte will will draw uh Detroit and Philly will be out. And I will laugh cuz I don't like Nick Nurse very much. But nevertheless, paint paint touches. The Raptors are fourth in the league in paint touches. And I think this is sufficient. You know, this is good. This is the one place the defense is always trying to keep you away from, right? So, I I I really like this. Um Oh, Orlando is struggling too much. I don't know. They're really not struggling too much, dude. Go look at their last 15 games. They they've been fine. Okay.

Pull up field goal percentage. Uh post All-Star break, the Raptors have been sixth in terms of pull-up field goal percentage. I think this is higher than most people would anticipate. I think most people would anticipate that the Raptors would be the middle of the pack, maybe even to the back end of the pack. But post Allstar break, they have been 16, sixth in OKC because of Shay's incredible talents has been number one. But this is what the Raptors can do to you. They don't have a player like Shay. They don't have a single player even remotely as good as Shay Gilchrist Alexander, but they have players who can do things in those zones that Shay likes to be in. And that's important. Furthermore, elbow touches. This to me is very, very important. The Raptors are second in elbow touches post allar All-Star game and the Denver Nuggets are number one. Out of these situations, the Raptors per touch generate more points than the Denver Nuggets as it comes to scoring out of those situations. Denver registers almost twice as many assists. This is of course the difference between Ingram and Barnes versus Jokic. Jokic is probably a more high volume playmaker than both combined. And so it makes sense. However, what is important is what is the value of mid-range efficiency in the playoffs? Number one, historically, playoffs tend to move more towards the mid-range. It has happened for years. I I I I dare you to find a year where mid-range both efficiency and volume wasn't up in the playoffs. It just the court shrinks a little bit. Teams teams are a little bit more dialed into the three-point stuff. Transition, you know, the half court kind of gets really crampy and teams are happy happily, you know, going to give up this mid-range shot. And if the generic game plan is to give up mid-range shots, then it kind of helps the Raptors already kind of live and die on a diet of shots that are going to be more steadily available. It's also worth noting that traditionally, at least in the years that I was looking at, mid-range efficiency tended to go up. Teams are just, for whatever reason, going to shoot a little bit better in the mid-range. Now, is mid-range efficiency or volume a requirement to win in the playoffs or to be a finals team? No. No, not at all. Not at all. Not at all. You don't have to be a great mid-range team to win in the playoffs, but I think it helps a lot. When I think about some of the greatest mid-range masters in the NBA, I'm thinking about a lot of championships. I'm thinking about Dirk Nitzky. I'm thinking about Michael Jordan. I'm thinking about Kobe Bryant. I'm thinking about at times, you know, early in his career, not so much LeBron James. the efficiency was not so great. Um, I'm thinking D. Wade at times. I'm thinking Kevin Durant. Like, there's a lot of championships here. You know, Paul Pierce, I'm thinking a lot of championships here. Why? Well, if you can combine shotmaking and playmaking in a mid-range talent, which is what you were doing when you put in Tim Duncan at the nail, Joic at the nail. Jokic is another great mid-range player. Embiid is a pretty good mid-range player, although not one that has had a lot of playoff success. When you think about these players at the nail, it's very dangerous. It's very dangerous when they are, especially when they're at an elbow. It's exceptionally dangerous because the court tilts. The court tilts when you're at an elbow. When an Embiid or a Jokic or even an Ingram um or a Durant find themselves at the nail extended, elbow elbow extended. So, free throw line extended maybe positioned in that old triangle spot that Michael Jordan used to cook out of. What you have is so many options, especially if you're able to be ball secure. You can playmate to the corner. You can playmate to the empty side. You can pass out to the top. You can drive. You can draw doubles and cut behind the defense. Playing a little bit closer to the basket, while unfashionable these days, historically has been very, very good in the playoffs. There's also a little bit of theory behind this that I would like to say I haven't really heard anyone talk about. I think playoff intensity can drain a I think it can drain a team's legs. Teams that don't typically defend very much during the regular season find this sudden load on the defensive end to be very taxing on their legs. And the first thing to go when your legs go, like when you don't have the legs to move around, is your long ball, but mid-range takes a little bit less of your legs to execute. I I say this as a shooter. When my legs were dead tired, like so, for instance, I I go to the park. Again, I had to draw on park examples and [ __ ] tournaments from from youth level because I've never played at division one level and I' I've certainly never played at the pros. But I used to remember that early on during the day when I would just come off like two days off from practices and stuff, I would go to the park and I'd be shooting the three. For the first four or five games, I'm cool with shooting the three. But as we get into the dog days of like game eight, game nine, game 10, I'm getting way way closer to the basket. I'm getting mid-range. I'm getting like two feet in the paint, step backs. I just didn't have the legs to be shooting three-pointers in my 10th game. Just didn't have that. And so again, this Cavaliers team is a mediocre defense at best. Over the last, I would say few handful of games since James Harden's gotten there. I think I would argue their defense has been a little bit worse. So, they're going to have to dial it up defensively if they're going to have any hope of stopping the Raptors transition offense. And so, this is where I say Toronto can punish them extremely by taking their legs away.

Styles make fights, right? This is one of the slowest teams versus one of the fastest teams. Pace will dictate this series. I mentioned this in the members live as well, so I hate to be repetitive for the people who watch both of these, but the Raptors want to run. If the Raptors play slow, they will lose because if you play slow, then their shooters will still have the energy. If you play fast and and and playing fast doesn't always mean running it up and down and up and down and up and down. Playing fast means quick reads, quick cuts, quick quick quick. If you are the better conditioned team, if you because because really, let's just be honest, the Raptors have been playing two-way the entire season. They have guarded up. There's a reason why their jump shot efficiency earlier on the season was so bad because nobody was used to playing at this level. Scotty even wasn't used to playing at that level and he had to dial back his aggression as the season went on just to keep his legs underneath him. You will notice over the last I want to say eight games, Scotty has shot better from three than he shot in the previous 45 games. And what happened over the last eight games? He stopped working as hard on defense. He still works harder than most, but he stopped working at that crazy reckless pace. The Raptors are going to need Scotty to be crazy reckless on defense, which means he's not going to have the legs to shoot three-pointers in the playoffs. He's not going to have that. Unless you're lucky, he's probably going to be shooting like 28 29%. RJ Barrett, who's going to have to work exceptionally hard, you know, with James Harden and and Donovan Mitchell, he's not going to have the legs. So again, the fact that this team gets two feet in the paint, operates from the elbow a lot, and hopefully their three-point efficiency can come from their lower minute players, which means that the Raptors efficiency comes off their bench. Let's just be real, okay? Jacobe, unless Manuel Quickley is out, he's going to be coming off the bench. Mamu off the bench. Battle off the bench. Each one of these guys stupid efficient. Stupid efficient from three. All three guys shot around 40% or above from three. So, these are the guys who are going to have the legs to make those shots. So, as long as the Raptors offense can continue to drive paint touches, these guys are going to benefit a lot, which would mean don't be surprised if Sandra Moses has a 6-3 game because he's the one who has the lesser defensive role. He is the one who's going to have the fresh legs coming off the bench. The Cavaliers also have this situation. a lot of their efficiency and three-point shooting comes off the bench. So, how is it that the Toronto Raptors can punish their weaker defenders like your Jaylen Tyson's, your, you know, Donovan Mitchell's is James Harden especially, you know, on switches on quicker guards. How can they punish Jared Allen who is coming off of, you know, he has knee tendonitis and he is not 100%. Who How can you punish How can you punish Evan Mobley in in spots too? Evan Mobley is their best defender, but he he also has suboptimal spots on the court that he can be punished from. So, this is going to be everything. But again, I think that because the Raptors are this very comfortable team at both playing two-way and because they're very scrappy, they've been playing super hard, they already take a huge diet of mid-range shots and and and get a ton of touches in the paint, and they're very elbow elbow reliant. I could make a very solid argument that the Raptors have been kind of trying to play playoff basketball all year. There's [ __ ] that does not work in the regular season that that works in the regular season that's not going to work in the playoffs. Your transition frequency is going to go down. Indiana was one of the fastest teams in the league last year. They ran everything and even their transition frequency went down. Uh Phoenix's transition frequency under 7 seconds or less and Matt Mike Danton and Steve Nash, their transition frequency went down. But how can you do a job where your transition frequency goes down, but it doesn't go down as much as everybody else's? It's going to go down. 100% is going to go down. Can you get your efficiency up a little bit in transition? Can we make better decisions in transition? The Raptors do a good job of limiting turnovers. This is good. But the Raptors do a horrible job of drawing fouls. Can we fix this? The Raptors are one of the worst teams at drawing fouls from the elbow. A lot of teams will put like look at what Denny Abdia did yesterday for the Portland Trailblazers. He draw he draws a lot of fouls. This stops the game. It allows you to catch your breath. Puts the other team in foul trouble. Makes him a little bit more cautious. The Raptors are also, you know, as I mentioned earlier, the Raptors are a pretty good three-point shoot three-point guarding team. They're actually pretty decent at it. In years past, maybe this wasn't the case, but you know, they're going to be pretty disciplined. And I think the secret factor in all of this, and again, this is going to be very much like, oh, he's a Scotty fan. The secret factor in this is really I really don't think my star player is afraid of this moment. I don't think he I don't think he's afraid at all. I don't think he would have been afraid if it was the Knicks. I don't think he's afraid if it's the Cavs. I don't think he's afraid of the Celtics. I don't think he's afraid of anybody. This is a dude where the taller the task, the taller the stand. Okay, he is like bring him on that energy especially from your spiritual kind of leader from your locker room leaders instills a sense of confidence and belief in the younger players. I'm not banking on CMBB to have some herculean series either by the way. He is a rookie and he is going to potentially struggle but if there is one rookie in this league that you would actually pick to do well in a physical series of the playoffs, it might be the most physical rookie in the [ __ ] league. Colin Ray Bo, you know, it might be somebody who cuts his teeth on defense because that's the part of his game that he gets the energy from and the legs from.

This series could swing in so many ways. I I mentioned this in the members live. There's four tenants. Donovan Mitchell is one tenant. James Harden is one. The bigs and their rim efficiency is the third. and they're three-point shooters. Tyson, Merrill, um, Wade, these guys. That's your fourth. You can win a series if two things go right for them. You'll struggle with three. Four is impossible. One is ideal. One is ideal. Make their shooter struggle. Close down the paint. Shut down one of their stars. If it's only Donovan Mitchell, you're going to win the series. If it's only James Harden and Donovan Mitchell struggles. Also, Donovan Mitchell did struggle against this team. So did James Harden. They weren't on the same team when it happened. So I I do want to throw caution to that, but they did struggle against this team. Scotty has had Evan Moley's number quite a few times. Brandon Ingram did give this team 37 if I'm not mistaken. Scotty Barnes did give this team 30 at one point. And and while again there's a part of me that's just like, "Okay, that's regular season. This is playoffs. That was October. This is April. There's so much to be mistaken if you just look at that three-game sample. Much was exposed in that three-game sample about the blueprint to beating this team. It hasn't changed that much. Yes, they will play better talent and you will have a much harder time on defense, but the the difficulties they had on defense, stopping the Raptors offense, are not going to change miraculously because you got James Harden. And the recipe is very simple. Run Scotty down the paint every [ __ ] chance. Get him a screen. Get him going downhill. Get Brandon a screen. Get him going downhill. Attack their bigs all night. And then when the attack goes away, counter with the mid-range. The Raptors greatest goal right now is not to cut down their mid-range volume. It's hopefully not even to cut down their mid-range efficiency. It is currently to raise their mid-range shot quality, which is to say, I would like this team to stop taking mid-range shots when there is a clear drive to the rim. Stop stop short stop shorting your drives is what I'm saying. The Raptors short their drives a lot. Punish the paint. The paint must be option one on every single play. And I know that sounds counterintuitive because they have really good paint protectors, but you must attack them. Attack their body. go into them, get them in foul trouble. When that goes away, don't force stupid shots over their bigs. Like, don't do that RJ Barrett, you know, [ __ ] Do not do the Emanuel Quickley one foot side step off one foot, going the other way, toss up at the rim [ __ ] Don't do that. But make sure that you if you are going to do that that you take at least two defenders with you so we can get an offensive rebound because Scotty and Yakob and CMBB getting second chance points is going to be very critical in this series. Guards crashing from the wings is going to be very important in this series. But as long as you are keeping it in mind that our first goal is to get to the basket at every single time and make them work. Now we can work off of that paint touch. And now once we get into the paint, we get two feet in the paint. Let's say Scotty's driving downhill. Jakob comes up, sets the screen, Scotty beats his man, whether it be Jaylen Tyson, Dean Wade, you know, whoever. They don't have a great match up for Scotty or BI. Let's just be real. And they definitely don't have a good match up for both. So, whenever these two are on the court, whoever don't got Dean Wade, attack your matchup. Now, we get two feet on the paint. Okay, now we have collapsed. Now, there is a dump off to Yak or a corner three for Jacobe or a top of the top of the, you know, top of the break three for Emanuel Quickley. And now we got to take our threes with confidence.

I have to say mentally speaking, I really trust this team right now. I I know that sounds crazy, you know, because they did lose to the Sacramento Kings a few days ago or, you know, a week ago and it still feels so fresh in my mind that it's very hard to trust this team right now, but the reason I trust this team is because they're just focused on themselves right now. They're not worrying about the noise. Cuz Scotty's not worrying about the noise. They're not worrying about like where ESPN has them. They're not playing with any pressure. There is like a genuine like excitement when you come into work and you're like, "We have a chance to like really shock the world." That excitement, it gets you, it gets you going and it gets you in the right place mentally for to approach a playoff series. You're not feeling those uh what if this goes wrong cuz it can't go wrong. The only way this can go wrong is if two of your stars suffer career-ending injuries or something. touch wood or you get blown out every single game and you get swept 40. Like I don't think anyone thinks that's going to happen. Hopefully nobody thinks that's going to happen. Even ESPN doesn't think that's going to happen. So having this approach that the Raptors have had, especially PR facing, you know, like even Bobby Webster, who was on the Raptor show today, kind of had this very like we'll see what happens. We'll see where we are at the end of the season. Hopefully the season ends. Like there's no declarations like we got to go out and stomp the Cavs. Nobody has said that. And I like that. I like that because it takes all the pressure off. You want them, if you're being honest, you want Scotty Barnes to come out and say, "I'mma whoop James Harden." You want You probably, you know, Joe Schmo at home. Probably want RJ Barrett to be like, "We're going to handle business and we're going to the second round." You probably want Brandon Ingram to come out and and declare that they're going to win a championship. But what the [ __ ] does that do? You still have to go do it. This this the talk is cheap. Prepare like a champion. You win a championship. I don't think you need to go out and like proclaim yourself a champion before you've even won a playoff game. You don't need to do any of that, right? So any of these bold predictions like y'all remember Tyler Hero last year? I think he was like down three 0 and he's like, "Oh, there's no way we're losing game four." Blah blah blah blah blah. Look, man, it's one thing to be Anthony Edwards and you say we're going to be back for game seven and you come back for game seven and everyone says, "Oh [ __ ] this guy is really him." It's another thing to be Tyler Herro and say, "Yeah, we down three 0, but you know, we're going to extend the series four, five, six games and let's see if we can get to the next round and then come out and get smoked in game four." Like again, the talk is very cheap, okay? And while I think experience leans on the Cavaliier side, I think three-point shooting talent leans on their side, I think bigs and production from the bigs leans on their side, I think guard production leans on their side. I'm reminded that the gap in terms of talent at the wings, especially if you only factor in like their wings as being who they actually are, is so so so decidedly in favor of the Raptors. The talent is so decidedly in favor of the Raptors. The production, this the the offense and generating offense from your wings, well, that's what NBA champions do. A lot of NBA champions have great wings. Some of them have very weak point guard play. Some of them have very mediocre defenders or, you know, role players at the point guard position. But a lot of that production from the wings, at the elbows, in the post. This is where NBA champions win championships. Kobe at the nail, Shaq on the block. This is how we win. You know, Michael Jordan earlier in his in his career in the first 3P at the elbow later on in his 3P at the nail at on the block. Putting that focus and pressure of the defense where they immediately have to collapse on your first move creates I think better breakdowns, better offense. And again, maybe this has been the plan all along. The Raptors dialed up the aggression early. They got themselves

Really tired. They got people shooting really crap and getting the whole world convinced that they had the worst three-point shooting team in NBA history. But the reality is simple. This team worked early. So, they knew how to play with that level of aggression. They were physical. They picked up high. So, they knew how to do it.

There's an old Darko quote that I always go back to. First, you got to learn how to practice. Then, you got to learn how to play. Then, you got to learn how to win. I think in their very first year together under Darko, they learned how to practice. I think last year they learned how to practice and be together but also win. And then finally, I think this year they've learned, sorry, how to play. And this year, I think they've learned how to play and they're slowly learning how to win.

They've learned how to close out close games. There are games that have been saved at the buzzer. The Indiana game comes to mind. The Charlotte game comes to mind. There's so many games where you're thinking, "Oh, here go the Raptors again." and then boom, you know, the Raptors storm off, you know, an 80 run and pull it back. So, this team is battle tested more than people realize. I realized it hadn't happened in the playoffs. People weren't watching. People didn't care about this team all year, which is why ESPN's picking against them.

And I'll give you one final reason for optimism. I have always believed that championship teams, you know it the second you hear a practice. Practices for championship teams are loud. People talk, people screaming, people yelling, people holding, people grabbing. This is what a champion practices like. What a champion practices like will always dictate how a champion plays. Kevin Garnett. I remember seeing practice footage uh in 2008 because a friend of mine was covering the Boston Celtics and I remember 2008 um KG in Boston and I remember like listening to their practice and Rajan and um Rajan Rondo and and Kevin Garnett are barking so loud like at everybody and they're they're screaming at each other and [ __ ] and there's loud disagreements and I'm like o the East is in trouble. like this is a championship team.

Even though it was the first year they'd been together, I remember seeing 2017 2019 Raptors footage and stuff. And in those years, I remember how loud that 2019 team was, especially when they got Marcus, Sergy Baka, Danny Green. These are big- time talkers. Kyle Lowry, especially on the court, big- time talker, big- time communicator. and and and there's an intensity in your practices where guys are literally trying to chop each other's heads off. You know, Fred Van Vleet helps with that, right? Getting competitors in the door. The Raptors have spent so much of their effort and time getting winners in the door. You You may not rate Jonathan Mobile, right? But I guarantee you Jonathan Mobile goes hard in practice, bro. That is not a lazy dude at all. They never I could bet a million dollar to 10. Million to 10. Okay. I would bet my life savings just for $10 profit that Jonathan Mo is coming into next training camp uh in shape. There's I don't know if he can shoot. I don't know if he if he'll ever be able to shoot, but I know he's coming in in shape and I know he's going to be a dog every day in practice. That's something that you can't really negotiate.

And when that becomes your identity and that becomes your culture and the togetherness becomes your resolve, like all the work that the Raptors have put into this, the Toronto media has very much mocked the Kaya vibes. These are the same idiots that were defending, not all. Okay, I just I don't want to do that catty thing where I call all media members dumb. Everything I'm saying is directed basically at two people. You know exactly the two people I'm talking about. I don't need to put their names on it, but they were the same people that were defending the 2022 Raptors culture. And I was listening to people who were in that locker room saying, "This [ __ ] is a ghost town, bro. Our locker is [ __ ] quiet. Our practices are [ __ ] quiet. People leave. The second practice is over. We used to have people stay 30, 50, 80 minutes overtime to work with a trainer to to do recovery. People are just trying to get out of the gym at this point. Everybody wanted to go home in 2022 and you could have seen right away what was going to happen to that team in the playin. And what happened? They didn't make they didn't make free throws. Dr. D Rozan started screaming and this team cratered and they became the laughing stock of the entire league for an entire off season. As everyone remembers that a little girl screaming at a [ __ ] professional basketball team. Like do you understand like that girl is you thank God for Dr. De Rozan. She exposed the [ __ ] out of this team and their mentally soft [ __ ] culture.

Bobby Webster today on the Raptor show said, "We built it now. We've built it multiple times." Speaking on culture and rosters. The hardest thing is sustaining it as it pertains to future roster moves and all that stuff. But forget about future roster moves. Let's talk about the playoffs, bro. You get down, let's say the Raptors are down 3-1 in this series. We're a week out from today and the Raptors are down 3-1. The the schedule has been released. I think the Raptors play Saturday and then I think they play Monday or Tuesday. So, it's going to be a short turnaround and then there's probably like two games off. I think there's two days off between the travel and then we come back. So, let's just say we're not this weekend, but the next weekend and the Raptors are down 3-1. What's the vibe in your locker room when you're down 3-1? What is the vibe in your locker room when you face adversity? I think that is what the playoffs are all about. Resilience, mental toughness, focus, adversity. Of course, talent matters. It always matters. You can't you can't be the [ __ ] Washington Wizards and just, you know, tough it out. Like, you're going to lose. But once we get past a certain level of talent, and the Raptors do have a lot of talent, now it's just problem solving and commitment to the plan. And commitment to the plan means I'm going to regulate my emotions. Commitment to the plan means when a teammate misses a big shot to tie the game, everyone doesn't turn on that teammate and then make the whole energy toxic.

People laughed at the Raptors need to fix their culture. I'll tell you one person who didn't laugh. Me. I was begging for this team to fix their culture. From 2022 to 2023, the minute Darko was hired, I breathed the biggest sigh of relief because my favorite team was no longer under this toxic regime that could not succeed. No championship team can be that bad, bro. None. Yes, the Lakers had their problems, but I promise you that team was [ __ ] committed to each other and committed to the gold. They just had two guys that didn't like each other and and 10 guys who had to take sides between those two guys, but they all wanted to win and they all practiced like it. Yes, the Chicago Bulls under Phil Jackson had a little bit of, you know, kurfuffles and and scandals and [ __ ] to deal with, but when guys genuinely don't want to play for each other, when they don't want to go the extra mile for each other, that's when you have like real catastrophic failures. Jamal Shed feels a need to to cover for Yaka Purle. Yaka Purle feels a need to cover for Scotty Barnes. Scotty Barnes feels a need to cover for RJ Barrett. When that goes away, you are you are left with a need to blame. And that's bad. That's bad energy. Nobody needs it. It does not win.

And so resilience, character, grit, toughness. Why do you think the Raptors keep picking these guys who have these jo three star kind of routes? In fact, I'll give you one player that hasn't had a very difficult path to the NBA as it pertains to like prep to pros, high school to college. They didn't have to like they were very highly ranked and you could probably tell who those players are on this team. They're probably the softer players on this team. But the hardened ones, the guys who had to like get it out of the mud, like a CMB, who was a three-star recruit, Jamal Shed, who was on no one's radar, like these dudes are [ __ ] dogs, bro. like you've been doubted your whole life. So what's 3-1? 3-1 means nothing to me. You want to find people who have that sort of like proven track record that situation after situation I've been down. They counted me out and I got back. Elijah Martin is that way too. Now Elijah Martin can't shoot for [ __ ] this year in the NBA for whatever reason. Shooting my 25%. But that dude's a dog, you know? He he walks around like he's already own he he already owns the joint. And if any of that ever translates, you can guarantee he's not going to come up short mentally in a big moment.

I think the Raptors really care about this stuff more than most. I think this is stuff that translates to the playoffs. I think a lot of things the Raptors do translate to the playoffs. Defensive aggression, defensive intensity, playing without fouling. Although the Raptors do foul a lot, so hopefully they can cut that down. Limiting turnovers. This is all playoff 101. Like literally, if I'm designing a game plan, a generic game plan for every single team in the in the league, what am I what am I saying? Get into the paint. get into the paint, limit transition offense, cut the cut the corners, guard the threes. Um, you know, I'm thinking like get into the jerseys, make them make them turn three, four times in the back court. Most teams haven't done this all year. Very few teams have.

You know, last year the OKC Thunder were my pick to win the championship from preseason and most people said they were too young to win. But what my argument was, yes, they're young. Yes, they'll be challenged. Yes, they'll be tested. But they play together. They play the right way. They play hard. And they have talent. And that talent got them through shooting drought after shooting drought after shooting drought. Now, the Raptors don't have the defensive talent that they do, and they don't have the offensive shot generation talent that they do. But maybe, just maybe, that little video that I made saying the Raptors are trying to be OKC East will be a little bit more true in the playoffs than it was in the regular season.

I have to go and screen Aml at Carlton Cinema. I have to also go pick up my laundry. I have to get ready, get the hell out of here, take an Uber down to the Carlton. We have a soldout screening. I'm very excited. But I just wanted to say I am excited about the playoffs. I am not nervous. I'm talking my [ __ ] I'm going to be on the panel tomorrow. I am declaring, you know, that the Raptors are a great team. I'm rocking with this team till the end. I know I have had moments over the last four days where I've said Cavaliers, there's a lot of panic here. This is a really good team. But it's appropriate fear. You should be afraid of this team, but not to the point that it stops you from realizing that you can beat them. Peace, guys. Have a great one. Enjoy. I'll catch you all tomorrow. Peace.