Transcription
Hello friends, I hope you are doing well, that you are in shape, that you are full of energy. Very happy to reconnect with you for this Bitcoin journal this Friday, October 24, 2025, in front of a crypto market that is green because it's the performance over the last 24 hours, but well, since the inflation figures dropped at 2:30 PM, the altcoins are starting to be sold a bit, Bitcoin too. So for now, there's a red candle since 2:30 PM. It's not great. Whereas the stock markets here opened in the beautiful green. You see that here the SP500 opened higher, the NASDAQ opened higher, the D Jones is exploding higher too, while the cryptos are correcting. We'll look at that. It's not great. For now, we see that Bitcoin ETFs have not had a good week, except for Tuesday when there were approximately 477 million dollars worth of Bitcoin bought, which is a good figure. The rest of the week, it's not pretty at all. Same for Ethereum, yesterday, there were 127 million dollars in sales. It basically compensated for what happened on Tuesday, but well, Monday, Tuesday, it canceled each other out. So, there are about, let's say, 150 million dollars in sales. So, a very small week for ETFs, so it's not great between us.
Now, if we look at the altcoins, they are still managing to preserve their 200-day moving average. That's very, very good. That's good news. They have even moved above the Kijun lines. So for now, the altcoins have three supports, you see, below their feet, between 733 billion and 720 billion. So it's the same thing. As long as we don't break the 200-day moving average with a red candle like this, it won't go well. Well, rather, if the altcoins continue to push, the direction is the next resistance at 1828 billion dollars, and that's approximately an increase of +11%. Could the altcoins go to reach this 50-day moving average? Yes, it's possible. We see that the bears here are getting more and more tired, more and more, more and more. So soon the bulls will regain momentum. We also had bullish divergences that appeared on October 10th and October 17th. So that helps to support the market. Now, at the structural level, well, we still have a kind of small channel here. It's quite corrective. I don't like that too much. So we could have, don't forget that we have the big spike here. If we see the altcoins break 833 billion, which is the last high, that would be super good news. It would mean that finally, well, all this is wave A and everything we've done here will be wave B for a later wave C, and then well, boom, it will explode upwards.
Now, if we start to fall and break, well, it's not great, is it? It means that well, this is a small A, all of this. Small A, small B, small C, it will be a B. We'll wait for a C for even later to fall back down. Well, you see, that's what I tell you every day because for now the structure isn't changing. Except, it's a very, very big and very long structure if you want. So it will take time for it to do things. So here in the short term, well, it's not great to see a big bullish channel forming here because we have impulse, correction, we can have a continuation, and so here as long as the altcoins are consolidating in a small channel, be careful. So in short, can we have here simply the altcoins? that will go just above this level to finish this small channel and then take off again. It remains possible. You see, that's what I was expecting a bit with the inflation figures, they came out not too bad, which is that we have a small push to go above to then fall back down. But well, unfortunately for now, it's a bit of red. So, don't forget, especially, that as long as the altcoins here don't break 833 billion, which is their 50-day moving average, unfortunately, we are still in the corrective wave A and we could continue to descend. So, it would be necessary to turn around and have something like a small +11% to +12%.
Now, with Bitcoin, it will be clearer. You'll see. So, for now, the green candle is being sold as soon as the figures dropped. Boom, the red candle. I'm going to explain to you what happened, why there's a bit of red which is a bit surprising, but well, you'll understand in a few minutes. So, for Bitcoin to be good, it needs to cross the 50-day moving average at 114, you see, which would already be at that level. But even better, it needs to cross here the 116,000 dollars, and then it can break free and go to reach the upper Bollinger band towards 125, or even 126,000 dollars. Is that possible? Yes, because look, the bulls are slowly starting to regain momentum because here the bears are tiring, tiring, so if the bulls come back with momentum, it could push.
We note, however, that we still have a fairly corrective structure here. I don't like that too much. Boom, it could continue to descend. Anyway, as long as Bitcoin doesn't break 116,000 dollars, the next step will unfortunately be a descent. If it breaks 116,000, it means we've finished wave A and we're going for wave B, that would be very good news. We'll just wait for a C that dips, but the structure will have already done maybe half, you see, that's good news. Now, as long as we don't break 116,000 and Bitcoin validates this not-so-good channel, impulse, correction, and boom, continuation. Unfortunately, it means we are still in the big first wave A, it's not pretty, you see. So, we hope that 116,000 will be broken to say "Ah, that's it, we're starting wave B" because as long as we don't break 116,000, we are still in the first wave. It means we haven't even started the second, there's a third, you see. Moreover, if we look at liquidity, it doesn't help us. Up north, there's not much left. There's not much choice. Well, there's 400 billion, but you see, it's closed. There's a little bit below 160,000 between 115,000 and 116,000, just below, you see, the high. So, could Bitcoin do something like finish the small channel, just make a small push above this high to get a little bit of stops? You see, above 114,140, 114,140 is around here. So yes, it could eat that, go just above this high. Here, however, it's not obliged to break 116,000 and unfortunately it could validate this boom to fall towards 103,000 because unfortunately, well, towards 103,000 there's a lot. Well, so as long as the structure doesn't break 116,000, it's still rich, unfortunately.
At the Ethereum level, it's the same thing at the structural level. If we see it break 4300, we'll say "Ah, that's promising." That is to say, wave A is finished, all of this is wave B. That means that finally, we are perhaps halfway through the structure, or even at the 23rd mark. We'll wait for a wave C and all that, and then we'll take off again. It's a continuation structure. Now, like Bitcoin, as long as Bitcoin doesn't break 116,000 and as long as Ethereum doesn't break 4300, we could very well have a continuation of the descent here, this impulse correction channel, and boom, continuation. And that would mean that we are still in the big wave A. We haven't even started wave B. So you can feel that it's going to last a long time, a long time. When I say a long time, I mean 2 or 3 months, you see. Well, so let's hope Ethereum breaks its 4300. What is this 4300? Well, it's also almost its 50-day moving average here, the average price over the last 50 days. Could we break this 4003? It remains possible. The bears are tiring, the bulls are coming back, but if the bulls arrive so weakly, we won't do anything. The bulls need to arrive with big momentum like this and break through. Moreover, there were bullish divergences for Ethereum. It was on Saturday, October 11th, that they appeared, the day after the big crash. So for now, the bullish divergences aren't helping too much.
Now, Ethereum, at the liquidation level, it's more or less the same, you see. Up north, it extends, but below 4003, we would like it to break 4003, but it looks like it could just be a bit cheeky if it wants to go above 4100, just above the peak, the 4100, the 4100 is around here, to eat this cluster, or even the two, and unfortunately validate this channel and boom, fall back below 3400 because well, below 3400, there's something to eat, at least towards 3600, but if it validates and breaks that, it will go to seek the structure to seek there, quite simply. So for now, that's it, the inflation figures, I thought they would help us, but they didn't help us much. I'll explain why. Solana is the same. It needs to maintain its 200-day moving average around 176. That would be good news. But like Bitcoin and Ethereum, as long as Solana doesn't break 211, which is really the level to break, we'll see it again below 170 dollars. Unfortunately, if it breaks 211, we'll say "cool, that's it, we've finally done wave A. All of this is wave B that's ongoing. We'll wait for a wave C, no problem. But after, all of this will explode to the moon. But as long as it doesn't break 111, well, unfortunately, it could, you see, impulse here, the small correction, and boom, continuation, it could fall, unfortunately.
If we look at liquidity, there's a little bit around 200 dollars, so what could it aim for just above 197, 198? Yes, clearly it could go there, like it was at the level of this high, to go eat the small cluster and then unfortunately it will be to go seek everything down below for the descent. I'm talking about if it doesn't break 211, you see, it can also do this scenario. In any case, it's simple. If Bitcoin doesn't break 116,000, Ethereum doesn't break 4300, and Solana 211, the scenario is this, clearly. So, let's hope the bulls move. Can the bulls move? Well, the bears are tiring. So yes, we hope the bulls will come back with a bit of momentum, you see. And to finish with XRP, well, same thing for XRP. It needs to break 2.64 to be good. As long as it doesn't break 264, it will be a return below 218, and moreover, you have the gap to seek, the CME gap here on futures contracts at 2.AR1.
Now, the bulls have regained momentum today with a small green candle, but above its head, there's the 200-day moving average which won't be easy to cross at 259, and the 50-day moving average which it would need to cross at 277. So, it has a bit more liquidity, twice as much to the south, so like the others, and it could make a small push towards 259, 260. Well, that's good because 259 is the 200-day moving average. So yes, it could just go a little higher, below this high, above 2.59, and you see, to go eat all that, and then if it doesn't break the high, bam, the descent. So you see that it breaks a little bit, that is to say, the first bullish scenario. Well, it's everyone breaking. It's Bitcoin, something nice is happening. Bitcoin breaks 116,000. That's good, we're super happy. Ethereum is at 4300, Solana at 211, and XRP at 2.64. We're super happy. That's scenario number 1. Scenario number 2 is that everyone will just eat their little cluster just above, you see, but won't break 116,000 like Bitcoin, and boom, it falls. It's the same for Ethereum, which will just eat its cluster above, which will aim for around 4100, 4002 to validate that, and then it doesn't break 4003, and boom, it falls. So the scenario is either it falls directly, or it's a very small rise to go seek the small clusters that are left there, and then bam, it falls for everyone.
So, those are the two scenarios that I see that are in line with the structure and the futures. Now, at the stock market level, well, for now Wall Street is happy. Look at this, I'll zoom in. Look, it already opened up there. That means there were buy orders placed, but it's normal, 2:30 PM, inflation figures. They placed a lot of buy orders, Wall Street opened, a gap upwards, and boom, and it's pushing. The Nasdaq too, the Dow Jones too. So for now, Wall Street is happy, the SP500 is pushing, the Nasdaq is pushing, the Dow Jones is pushing. So what happened? The figures that came out. Well, it's simple, core inflation and inflation excluding energy, food, dropped from 3.1 last month to 3. Very good news, of course. General inflation, okay, from 2.9 to 3, so we went up by 0.1 point. You might say "Oh, sad, sad," but it's below expectations. So, it's funny because this morning in the video, I said that Robert and Alfred are watching Netflix and Disney Plus for three weeks, sipping their cocktails, if you will. And so it's dipping a bit, but well, and so I said, you'll see, Alfred will say, "We need to get out the figures for Jerome, Jerome Powell wants figures." Yes, wait, go ahead, tell him 3%, that's good. And I said that randomly. Boom, many people said 3% randomly. Well, and so boom, 3%. Well, I really said that on a whim, I didn't believe it at all. Well, so, well, listen, 3% inflation too, well, general inflation with energy and food on a rolling month also decreased. So on a rolling year, we have an increase of 0.1, but on a rolling month, we have a decrease of 0.1, and core inflation decreased on a rolling month and on a rolling year. So, in short, we have three, let's say, green candles, three green lights saying "it's cool," and one red light. So the markets, faced with this, are happy, and it's normal that they are happy. SP 500 is pushing, Nasdaq is pushing, which is not normal is to see our little cryptos going red compared to that. Not great, you see. If cryptos followed the logic, they should be green like Wall Street here, you see.
Well, so for now, cryptos are a bit against the wind compared to what should be happening because this is good news, all of this. It's good news. The less good news is that general inflation is rising, but it's below expectations. So we have three green lights and one orange light, not even a red one. You see, actually, the red light would have been if it was above 3.1. That would be a red light. But we have three green lights. I'd say one small orange light. So, Wall Street is happy, cryptos are rather, boom, all the correction, that's good. Maybe it will start again, be careful, maybe it's just a bit of red, then boom, tonight it will squeeze to get the little clusters from everyone, you see. Maybe it will squeeze tonight or tomorrow or this weekend to eat a little bit, you see, all these clusters that are to the north for everyone. Well, it remains possible. In any case, for now, the stock market is happy. Gold, well, it's being bought back a bit, it's stagnating a bit, nothing special. The barrel is going back up. Well, that's a bit inflationary, that's not great. So for now, crypto stocks, well, Coinbase, boom, green, MicroStrategy, slightly green, but also, you see, in fact, even crypto stocks are pushing, everyone is in the green, everyone is in the green, this is a false red, you see what it is, it opened higher. So it's green, so everyone is in the green except cryptos, well, finally, we are not in the red today, but you see that the candles, look at Bitcoin's candle, it's green, but it's being sold since the inflation figures, so we are the only ones being sold since the inflation candle, that's not great.
Well, at the bond market level, there's a bit of buying pressure on the 10-year. On the other hand, the European 10-year is being sold. Well, are they thinking "Okay, well, it looks good for interest rate cuts, I'm going into risk assets." Well, that too, because you see that the US 10-year has been sold a bit since the figures came out. Well, good inflation figures, slightly falling inflation means, well yes, there will be interest rate cuts at the end of the month. It means, well, it's a small economic recovery and it's going more towards risk assets like stocks, you see. So it's rather bullish for stocks to see that. So that's why today, treasury bonds and gold, well, they're not very exciting. Well, and the dollar, well, it started with a small red candle. It's being bought back a bit, this dollar. It could have kept its small red candle. It can keep its red candle because the dollar doesn't like interest rate cuts too much. That devalues it. Here it's being bought back a bit. I think some people are returning to cash because there are also some small tensions with Canada. This morning, I shared the news, there are still tensions between China and the United States. At the end of the month, there will be two very important things. The meeting between the US and China to discuss tariffs, and also, there will be the decision of the Japanese central bank, which I will finish the video on, which is that Japanese inflation rose by 0.2 points. Last month, we had 2.7, we went to 2.9. So it's possible to have an interest rate hike by the Japanese central bank. It's not to be excluded, and the markets will not like that at all. They won't like it because the Japanese are the champions of monetary printing, and so there are a lot of people who have borrowed from Japan to do things elsewhere on the planet, everywhere, you see. And so if the central bank that prints the most in the world starts raising rates, you can feel that some people will be tense. That's the idea. Tense means "Oh my god, I'll have to sell a bit and get rid of it." So at the end of the month, there will really be two major events. The XY and Trump meeting, and the decision of the Japanese central bank, which will need to be followed. Of course, I will follow that. I will keep you informed. Friends, for a quick update today. Sending kisses, stay strong, and we'll see each other tomorrow, we'll say see you tomorrow. Bye bye.