Transcription
Hello friends. Friends, you must have been seeing continuous news since this morning that some kind of agreement has been reached between the US and Iran. But there are also many confusions. Here, Trump is saying that the deal is done. Signatures are about to happen. Iran is saying that there is still a 60-day period. Here, an MOU has been signed. You can see this news. US and Iran Announce Framework Deal for Peace and to Reopen Strait of Hormuz. We need to understand this in a little more detail, what exactly happened? What does this 60-day period mean? Because you must have seen that a ceasefire happened in April. At that time also it was said that the ceasefire is for 60 days. So what is happening now? Has the war stopped? Has the Strait of Hormuz been opened? I will tell you all this in detail. Let's move forward. But before that, let me also tell you all that if you take any UPSC course on Study IQ right now, whether it is for 2027, 28, 29, you will get a flat 50% discount for a very limited period. Use the code ANKITLIVE and this phone number is given. If you have any doubt related to the batch, like you will see many features here in different packages. Whatever you want to choose, you can take it here. And all your doubts will be cleared on this phone number. Let's start. First of all, let's see what happened. See, US President Donald Trump has announced that the peace agreement with Iran is complete and the Strait of Hormuz is being opened for global shipping. Well, if this is fully implemented, it means that the rivalry, the war, the military confrontation, the oil price volatility that has been going on for months, all of this can improve. Why is this news so important? Because this is not just an agreement between the US and Iran, it is important from the perspective of the global oil market, international shipping, India's energy security, the stock market, every perspective. You can see that as soon as this news came, in fact, last Friday also, the Sensex saw an upward trend. Since this morning, the stock market is also going up. Here, the Rupee is also appreciating because you can see it was trading around 96 and now it has come down to around 94.5. So if things improve, the overall global scenario will improve. But understand one thing here. The US President is saying that the agreement has been signed here. But the Supreme National Security Council of Iran has confirmed that an MOU has been signed now. Meaning, the MOU has not even been signed yet. This will basically be signed on June 19th, and this will basically be on Friday. Okay? The MOU will be signed, and after that, there will be a 60-day period, and only then will the final deal be signed. Well, what is this MOU? Memorandum of Understanding. Normally, what happens? If we call it a treaty, a deal, it is legally binding, with detailed commitments. It has a specific enforcement mechanism. What is an MOU? It is for understanding. Meaning, it acts as a bridge, that before making a deal, let's sign an MOU so that after so many days, we can achieve the final deal. So here, the MOU will be signed on Friday, June 19th, and after that, there will be a 60-day period, and then finally, if both parties agree, they will see within these 60 days whether the announced things are being followed or not, and the detailed information will also be given here on Friday. But what are the three pillars of this entire agreement? Because it is important to understand that if this MOU has been signed, and both parties have agreed, then there must have been some consensus on something. So, there are three very important things that you should know. The first is Maritime Security, that is, the Strait of Hormuz. The second is Nuclear Restraint, and the third is Economic Relief. If we talk about the first pillar, Reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Now, you all know how big a problem this had become. Meaning, everyone was thinking that the Strait of Hormuz was already open. By starting this war, America has shot itself in the foot. Meaning, what was open before the war, during the war, they were busy with this: "Let's open the Strait of Hormuz." So, what did Iran agree to here? Iran is basically being told that it will open the Strait of Hormuz. It will not impose any kind of restrictions, because many things were happening, like they would impose tolls, and many other things. Now, nothing like that will happen. Normal maritime traffic will take place here, and keep in mind, this will be implemented on June 19th when the MOU is signed. It is possible that there might still be some confusion, but finally, there are three-four more days until it is fully opened. And here, it is also being said that efforts will be made to remove any sea mines that have been laid. So, a target of 30 days has been set, within which Iran will open the Strait of Hormuz for normal shipping. Well, why did the US agree to the second point? The United States says that if Iran opens this, then we will also lift the blockade we have imposed. You all know the blockade, how recently America attacked several ships, or the US Navy attacked, in which three Indians also died. So, this was a big problem. But you can call it a trade-off. America will lift the blockade, and Iran will give clearance for the Strait of Hormuz here. First pillar. The second, which is the most important, is the question of nuclear. See, what does the US want? For decades, you will see that the US has maintained that Iran cannot possess nuclear weapons here. Never. Iran's enrichment program must stop. International inspections should be allowed. So, the US wants this because if Iran gets nuclear capability, it will be a threat to Israel, a threat to the Gulf countries. Regional stability will be disturbed here. And what does Iran want? Iran is saying that look, whatever nuclear program we are running, we are running it for our nuclear technology. Which is our sovereign right. We are running it for electrical power generation. Whatever we are doing here, it is not as if we are doing it against any other country. So, Iran has basically been opposing these arguments of America. Now the question arises, what has been said in the MOU that is going to be signed? See, instead of solving the dispute immediately, the MOU is postponing it. Because this was a very big question regarding nuclear. I don't know if the nuclear issue will actually be resolved or not. Will it ever be resolved, because Iran is not going to give up nuclear, and the US and Israel want it to be completely abandoned. So, will both parties be able to agree? So, this had become very difficult. That is why it is being done here that let's settle other things first. Like the Strait of Hormuz should be opened. The war should be ended, and the biggest question of nuclear should be left for later. Iran has basically agreed that it will not acquire nuclear weapons. It will not expand the nuclear program much for now. But again, all these things will have to be seen when the details of the MOU come out. Whether Iran has actually agreed to this or not. And finally, whatever deal is made will be seen later regarding nuclear. It is not being touched now because if we sit down to discuss this now, the deal will never be made. So, I hope you understand this. Well, what are the main unresolved issues here regarding nuclear? One is the uranium stockpile. Iran currently has a large amount of enriched uranium. So, the question is, should the enriched uranium be exported? Should it be sent to some other country? Should it be destroyed? Should it be kept with Iran? So, this is a big question. And we don't even know what is going to happen regarding this. Then, the second is future enrichment. Will Iran further enrich uranium here? If so, up to what percentage? 4%, 10%, 60%, 80%? How much will it do? And who will supervise it? This is a big question here. Third, who will do the verification? Meaning, will Iran allow international inspections or not? Will there be a monitoring system or not? Will the IAEA be involved or not? So, these are some unresolved issues that I don't know. Meaning, you cannot say anything about whether these will be fulfilled or not. The third pillar is economic relief. See, Iran has suffered a huge loss. There is no doubt about it. Iran's entire country, its entire infrastructure, has been devastated at this time. So, naturally, in this entire deal, Iran will want compensation. Now, naturally, America will not give direct compensation because that would be seen as a big defeat. So, one thing that is going to happen is that the sanction waiver regarding oil, because Iran was under sanctions that it could not export oil. So, it is possible that oil exports will be allowed here, which will also benefit India. India will also be able to import oil. Out of the frozen assets worth billions of dollars, $25 billion will be released for Iran. And America will not impose any new sanctions. And there will be discussions about whether to provide support for reconstruction or not. You cannot say anything about this right now. So, I hope you understand these are three very important things in this entire deal, and the 60-day period is very important because here the US will see whether we can trust Iran or not. Whether Iran is opening the Strait of Hormuz or not. Is there no escalation? Is there no nuclear expansion? If there is any violation, the rest can collapse, and the deal will not happen. Second, Iran will also see whether America is listening to us or not. Have they given the sanction waiver? Have they released the frozen assets? Have they removed the blockade? So, both parties will check within these 60 days, and a decision will be made according to the situation. And third, here, see, domestic politics. In Iran, you will already see that the hardliners are opposing this agreement. They are saying that we were already in a superior position here. We should have taken more leverage here. So, why are we surrendering? The concession on Hormuz is too excessive. We should not have let go of Hormuz. Nuclear restrictions will be very dangerous for us. And on the US side, you will see that Donald Trump will have to convince Congress, security agencies, that look, as this agreement is about to happen, let's not tamper with it for now. So, there are things from both sides. Well, let me tell you an interesting thing here. If you saw the news late last night, reports were coming that final negotiations were ongoing between the US and Iran. An announcement could be made about this at any time. But then the news comes that Israel has attacked Lebanon. It is expanding its military operation in Lebanon, and because of this, Trump became very angry. Trump became very displeased. Here, Trump said that because of Netanyahu, this entire peace deal was going to be derailed, it was going to weaken again. Well, understand one thing here. Why is Netanyahu objecting? Netanyahu says that look, the US is sitting far away. The US is not in danger. We are in danger. Israel is in danger. If Iran does anything, if any problem arises, whether through its proxies like Hezbollah, Hamas, Israel repeatedly faces trouble. So, Netanyahu wants that whatever deal has to happen between the US and Iran, let it happen. But regarding Hezbollah, Hamas, and all these, we will continue our operations against them. We will keep attacking them. And that is why this was the biggest problem in Lebanon. Now, you all know that in Lebanon, Hezbollah keeps attacking Israel from the northern side. So, what happened here is that last night, suddenly, the news came that Israel carried out planned operations against Hezbollah in Beirut. Because, understand, the US and Iran are talking to each other. An agreement is almost about to happen. Then it is known that Israel is going to attack Hezbollah, or has already attacked. And that is why Trump became very angry. He must have called, whatever he said, saying, "Stop this operation, this deal is going to break." So, let's see what finally happens regarding this. But see the geopolitical significance. If this deal happens, if we look at the positive outcome, one is that tensions will reduce, the oil market will improve, the stock market will get better, diplomacy will improve. In fact, I was looking at the oil market, it is going below $85 now, which is a good thing. It is very important for India, otherwise, it would have been a big problem for us. And in a negative scenario, if these negotiations fail, if things do not go well in 60 days, then definitely tensions will return. You never know when a war might start. Anything can happen here. Let's see what happens next. But I hope you have got clarity here about what exactly happened. Before leaving, a very interesting question. Can you tell me which of these events was a major turning point? Meaning, earlier Iran used to be an ally of the US. But because of this event, the US became an enemy of Iran. What happened? Basically, which event are we talking about? You all know the right answer on my Instagram, and if you are not there, that's fine, you can get it from Telegram. And friends, as I told you, if you are preparing for UPSC and want any batch, you are getting a flat 50% discount on all our UPSC courses. Just use this code ANKITLIVE for maximum discount, and this is the phone number. If you have any doubt or problem related to the batch, call this number, my team will guide you well. Study IQ IS Making India Smarter and Better.