Transcription
The Conservative Party has abundant conservatives; it does not represent them anymore. I have come to realize over the past year that this party is too intellectually and morally correct to be reformed.
Since losing the leadership, Maxime has repeatedly demonstrated that he is more interested in advancing his personal profile than advancing conservative principles. He has decided that he is more important than his conservative colleagues and, indeed, the Conservative Party.
Quebec MP Maxime Bernier has certainly given members of the Conservative convention in Halifax a lot to talk about. Bernier announced that he's not only leaving caucus but he also intends to start his own party. Party stalwarts like former Prime Minister Stephen Harper and former cabinet minister Jason Kenney have thrown their support behind Andrew Scheer, but is that enough? Or could Bernier split the vote on the right and hand Trudeau's Liberals an easy win in 2019?
It's time, of course, for the power panel. Joining me now from west to east: in Vancouver is former Conservative cabinet minister, now with Dentons, James Moore. In Calgary, Marcello Monroe, who was with KTG Public Affairs. And in Montreal, Yolande James, former Quebec Liberal cabinet minister. Had all three of you. It's great to see you. Thanks for being with us.
Mr. Moore, James, I have to start with you, of course. What do you make of today's move and that larger question we were posing about the effect it might have on the Conservative Party going into the next election?
Well, on a personal level, it's disappointing. This was an unnecessary move by Maxime. But I'd look, let's turn the page and move forward. I think what Maxime will find is that he would have had an easier time trying to change the Conservative Party's short-term and long-term view of agricultural policy than he will have in standing up a pan-Canadian political party with 338 local organizations and candidates and fundraising. So, you know, this this project, I think, is it's more than I think he realizes what it is.
But I think for the Conservative Party moving forward, and any of my former colleagues who are watching this, you know, don't snipe, move forward. There's an example of this that in the recent past, in the conservative movement, that I think is a good one to follow. In the spring of 2005, Belinda Stronach left the Conservative Party and she cross the floor and sat with the Liberal government of Paul Martin. And what did the conservative movement do? We didn't snipe and attack Belinda Stronach. We moved forward. And what did we do? We filled the void that was that was sort of some people thought was there and put forward conservative ideas and policies.
The best way to stop the Maxime Bernier political party from gaining any kind of traction with voters, supporters, donors, or anybody is to take the oxygen out of the room with an effective platform that is based on conservative policies and principles that aren't boutique issues like supply management and other things, but that are core to the well-being, quality of life of Canadian families and the Canadian and in the Canadian economy moving forward. That's how you stop this from moving forward is recapture the agenda, get on the offensive, talk about policies and principles that are core to conservative voters and the conservative movement, and get on with defeating Justin Trudeau. A lot of people like Maxime Bernier, but those people like defeating Justin Trudeau a lot more than they like Maxime Bernier.
Yolande, let me ask you about the Quebec context here because, you know, what what do you think about the, I'll note for example, that his, so the constituency association, all but I think on the board, all but one person has already resigned, saying that the president said, you know, we stand with Maxime more than we do the party. Is there enough support, I guess, for Mr. Bernier and his ideas there to take away from some of the momentum the Conservatives have have got in Quebec?
But you, you've got to really have a specific look at Maxime Bernier and Quebec in its context. When he's from Beauce, he's a Beauceron, and that's important to talk about because it explains why locally in his riding, people support him and have continued to support him. His father's history there as well. Does not mean that that extends to the rest of the province. I would say far from it. Don't forget, and he wrote about it in his book, and part of the reason he, I believe, he's still so bitter is that with Elias's help, Andrew Scheer was able to capitalize on his position and supply management during the the leadership and win a lot of Quebec.
And, you know, for conservatives in Quebec, their opportunity to gain on Liberals is not in urban areas, it's in the, it's in the regions. But the issue becomes with this new party that Maxime Bernier is trying to build, will he have enough momentum to get even just a couple of points? Because, you know, in a tight race in certain ridings where Liberals are going to have to defend their record, if they're able to divide the conservative voice, the the conservative vote in any way, of course, that's going to be beneficial to them. So it all depends on what Maxime Bernier does now. Because I do agree with James in the fact that, you know, it's one thing to announce that you're going to leave a party, but if you're going to create a new one, it's going to take a lot more than some hot tweets and a flashy press conference to do it.
Marcello, what did you think of Mr. Scheer's response today?
Well, you know, initially, I was of the camp, I guess you'd say, the last couple of weeks, I was a bit surprised how long it's taken Andrew Scheer, you know, to forcefully come out and say what he said today. I guess I would have thought he had a couple of opportunities to be the person who pulled the plug on Maxime Bernier himself. He refused to do that. He waited for Bernier to do this. I think there's a method to Scheer's madness. I think James sort of touched on it in the sense that it gave the Conservative leadership, and I say leadership broadly, meaning their senior strategists, the senior folks that we've come to know across Canada as leaders, the chance to really get together and clearly today their message was loud and clear, and it came from all kinds of places, from premier forward to leader Jason Kenney, it came from Stephen Harper, from senior strategists, to say, you know, don't let this nonsense derail us from our focus, which is to defeat Justin Trudeau.
So I think that's not a bad place for him to begin his convention. A convention which, by the way, Mr. Bernier decided to stay around, may have become quite divisive on some of these questions between the libertarians and other folks in the party that maybe one or more centrist stance. He may have been able to make a lot more noise and turn the convention to do something. The two sides of the Conservative Party were confronting each other quite publicly, and instead, the narrative has been set up to allow the Conservative leadership to spend the next couple of days continuing on this theme of, you know, pushing Mr. Bernier aside and reminding people in their party how dangerous it is and the long, cold wilderness of the night that was the Reform Alliance split from the party. So I don't think that's a bad place for Mr. Scheer to begin his convention over the weekend. Although, as I said, he may have, he may find there are people in the party they're going to ask him to have questions in terms of how he keeps their values in the party, but he's got, he's got a few days to do it. He's got, look, he's got more broad support, I think, more vocal broad support from the leadership of the party today than he's probably had since he became leader.
And James, I want to ask you about that, the idea of big tent and how Mr. Scheer navigates now because, I mean, not that Twitter is representative of everything, but I find tons of reaction is actually pretty supportive of Mr. Bernier or at least some of the ideas, however controversial, that he was putting forward. And so how do you, how do you sort of walk that line if you're Andrew Scheer?
Well, as I said, I, I think you, you suck the energy out of the room. William and Stephen Harper became leader of the Canadian Alliance before the merger and the Conservative Party, there were 13, not one Maxime Bernier, but there were 13 members of parliament, people like Chuck Strahl and Deborah Grey, Monte Solberg, accomplished parliamentarians of deep respect within the party, who formed a group called the Democratic Representative Coalition, and they were sitting with Joe Clark. And the conservative movement wasn't split between two, it was between three factions. And what did Stephen Harper do? Is he put on the table clear public policy that took again, took the oxygen out of any effort to split the movement in a different direction.
But let me just say this as well about Andrew Scheer. You know, he won in the, on the 13th round of balloting, and over the past year as leader of the Conservative Party, you know, whenever you have a leader who wins in that kind of a dynamic, you know, there are people who are wondering whether or not he can grow into the role. He's grown into the role. Fundraising is through the roof. They're drawing phenomenal candidates in all regions of the country. Poll numbers are steady and strong and stable in all regions of the country. He has the support of the new elected premier of the province of Ontario. We're doing well in Atlantic Canada. We got a breakthrough in a by-election victory in the province of Quebec. You know, he's got support of the premier of Saskatchewan. He's got support of Jason Kenney in the province of Alberta. If all those people are standing behind Andrew Scheer, not just because he happens to be the Conservative leader, but because he's demonstrated over the past year of his leadership, steady growth in his personal presentation, his grasp of public policy, his ability to build the team together. And frankly, it's not anything that I don't think Maxime Bernier would have been capable of doing given the pressures that Andrew Scheer was under. He's demonstrated his leadership, and that's why he has the support. And also, I think people have an instinctive reaction when they see unfairness and an inappropriate and unprofessional behavior on the in the form of Maxime Bernier and what he's done over the past couple of months. And look, I like Max personally, but I think that what he's done here is is blown up his own political career with frankly nothing ultimately to show for it in the long term. And I think at what it's going to cause is a pendulum swing in the other direction of a rallying around Andrew Scheer and an opportunity, as Marcello said, an opportunity for him to seize the agenda and to put some real meat forward on public policy and redefine the Conservative Party under his leadership as we go into the next, in the next election campaign.
Okay, we're going to stay on this topic because there's lots more. There is a lot more to discuss, but the power panel has to take a quick break. We'll be back for another round after this.
Welcome back to Power and Politics in the Power Panel with Yolande James, James Moore, and Marcello Monroe. We are, of course, talking about the big political news of the day here in Canada. Maxime Bernier, Quebec MP, Maxime Bernier has left the Conservative Party to start, he says, one of his own. Yolande, why don't I start with you? James before the break was talking about the opportunities presented to the Conservatives by this. What kind of opportunities do you think the Liberals and the NDP have here?
Well, I mean, first of all, it all depends again, I go back to what happens now and how Andrew Scheer handles the situation. As much as we see conservatives today really backing him up and Stephen Harper tweeting and supportive of him as they go into a convention, it's going to be about how he's going to make sure that Maxime Bernier doesn't really have any following whatsoever. Because when you look back at it, after the leadership with such a close result, I'm sure, and it certainly seemed that Andrew Scheer was working towards that, he would have liked and gave Maxime Bernier a lot of space to kind of integrate into the team and try to stay on on message and try to make him happy within the Conservative Party, which not clearly didn't happen. Now that he's officially made this move, as we're one year away from the election, ya know, caucus members are there, but there are certain people that resonate with what Maxime Bernier has to say. If he is able to carry that through in any way, if he's able to carry members with him in any kind of structure, that is certainly something that can be an advantage to the Liberals and to the NDP. But I would say to them, not to count your chickens before they hatch, because, you know, you never know what could happen. Look at what the Liberals were able to do in 2015 when a lot of people counted them out. I wouldn't be so quick to pop the champagne today, given that the Conservatives are not having such a great day.
Marcello, would you be popping the champagne and I'm oh right now?
No, and I wouldn't be counting my milk bottles either. Look, I think, I think that it's very important for both the Liberals and the New Democrats, as much as we can all take joy when one of the political parties we oppose has a day of sort of frenzied biting back and forth, we can't get sucked into that that's somehow a solution to fighting an election campaign. We're still a year out. Mr. Bernier has yet to show, since his leadership, which obviously he almost won, but I mean, since then, he has yet to show that he's capable of kind of creating that base for himself. I was a little surprised today, frankly, that he didn't seem to have anything to show for it. There's no party name, he couldn't, you know, point to any one significant that was backing him up. That being said, the Conservatives cannot also take the risk of thinking that he's just going to be shoved aside by a couple of strongly worded news cycles. Right? I mean, here in Alberta, for example, you know, he had garnered the support of seven then, you know, Wild Rose like a conservative MLAs, they were quite excited about him as a candidate. It wasn't, you know, sort of half-hearted by any stretch, and he had support of that ilk in conservative circles across the country. So just because we've had sort of a list of leadership that says, you know, they won't support him, doesn't mean he won't find any friends. And we are in the midst of figuring out how Canada's conservatism reflects this sort of rise of populism in the right. We saw some struggles over immigration in the last couple weeks. I don't think that that's going to go anywhere fast. I suspect we'll still see some of that debate play out at the Conservative convention, but there's certainly a group there of conservative voters who, to whom a libertarian freedom and, you know, perhaps sort of soft anti-immigration message will sell to. I think Mr. Bernier is counting on that. And so how and whether he connects to that is the next question. And, you know, let's not shove aside too much the power of a Twitter feed in a couple rallies because we know what happened.
So in the quarter, he, one of his most pointed messages was around supply management. And you could see during the press conference and as we have before, that that kind of got him the most animated. I want to play a clip and then James, get your reaction to it.
And the only one in the house was against a trade war. And the only one in the house was for Canadian consumers. Put supply management on the table. You know, President Trump is saying a lot of things, but on supply management, for the last six months, that's the same thing.
What do you think about that, James? The idea of putting supply management on the table, about saying you're going to abolish it, and that somehow, you know, helping temper what happens with Mr. Trump?
Well, a couple of things. First, he's not the only one who's against a trade war. I, I'm quite sure Andrew Scheer and Justin Trudeau and Chrystia Freeland and Elizabeth May, I'm pretty sure everybody's against a trade war. So that aside, on the substance of what he said, there are two problems. First is the tactical concept of the Prime Minister of Canada and our chief negotiators going to the Americans and just offering up supply management and saying, there you go. Donald Trump is not an idiot, nor is Bob Lighthizer, his his negotiator. They will take that and then they'll look for the next target. The idea of just volunteering up, you know, 16,000 farms across the country just as an effort of goodwill and acting like Boy Scouts against a trade hawk like Donald Trump and thinking that that'll get you further down the road to a NAFTA 2.0 is is foolhardy at best.
The second thing is, you know, Maxime Bernier does, I think, a very credible job of being critical of supply management from a libertarian, free enterprise, free market point of view, and that's perfectly fine. He represents a lot of people who are critical of supply-managed industries. However, comma, your obligation if you're aspiring to be the Prime Minister of Canada, now, I guess, is to actually put meat on the bones and substance behind your policy. It's one thing to say you don't like the status quo order of things. It's a very, it's a very different thing to then backfill that with what you would actually propose to do. And those farm families with, you know, 60, 60 had a cow on their family dairy farm, who have paid tens of thousands of dollars to acquire that quota, is Maxime Bernier going to then subsidize them and and buy back that quota? Or is he also against it? Was he then in place going to violate his principle being against corporate welfare? So he has not spoken, talked about in a substantive way of how he would actually walk away from supply management in a way that it rationalizes his free enterprise, free-market principles on both sides of this issue. Nor has he rationalized it within a tactical perspective of how you actually deliver a free trade agreement while just offering up 16,000 farm families and supply management and getting nothing in return for it, because you're voluntarily giving up that negotiating bargaining chip. It's it's mindless.
Okay, we are out of time. So unfortunately, I have to leave it there. Lots to say. Thank you so much to everyone. Thanks to the Power Panel, Yolande James, James Moore, and Marcello Monroe.