Transcription
Hello friends, I hope you are well, that you are in shape, that you are full of energy. Very happy to find you again for this Bitcoin journal of Tuesday, October 21, 2025, with a completely green crypto map. And why is this green map very interesting? Because we see that here the altcoins are doing well today. Okay. Bitcoin is doing well and next to it, hold on tight, boom, gold is taking its red candle, silver is taking its red candle. Well, well, what's funny and what's very interesting is that at noon on social networks, whether it's Telegram, which I'm showing you here, or Discord and Twitter, I sent you a little analysis, top-notch, finicky, showing the Bitcoin to Gold ratio. And every time this Bitcoin divided by Gold ratio here has reached the oversold zone on the RSI, bam, it has been the long-term bottom, the bottom of a Bitcoin bear market. Look at this. Oversold zone here, gold on Bitcoin. Boom! Go! And it's off! Oversold zone here, Bitcoin on gold. Boom! It's off! Then we go looking, almost, and it's off again. We went to look for it once, twice, and it's off again. We went to look for it here, not very far from the oversold zone. Well, it was Monday, it was April 14th. And then boom, we took off again. We had quite a few months of decline, and now we're not very far. So that doesn't mean that's it, boom boom, the bottom. Now, I'm hiding it a bit from you, you see, it's here. Hop. That doesn't mean yes, the bottom is here. Look, the bottom is here, it's off. No, it can go down a little, you see. It could go down a little. So gold could continue to outperform Bitcoin, and Bitcoin could be less pretty. But it especially means that as soon as gold tops out, well, that means gold will start to correct. Paf, it's off, my darling, on gold, and on Bitcoin, sorry. And so what's funny is that just today, when I send this, it's just luck, when I send this analysis, gold, bam. Now, don't forget, gold has exploded like crazy, okay? That's parabolic. So at some point, it's going to have a small correction to take off again. It will only last a few days, you see, or a week, let's say 10 days, or an average correction of a few weeks to take off again, you see, which can last a month or two. Or it has a small bear market, you see, of several months. And so depending on the size of the correction that gold will have, the bigger the correction, the more our beloved Bitcoin will pop, you see. Well, so this chart was quite interesting to see, and you'll tell me what you think. Well, regarding ETFs, yesterday it was a bit bearish for Bitcoin ETFs, a bit bearish for Ethereum ETFs. The market is still in fear here. So the altcoins are having a small 4-day rally. A bit timid, we can't even get past the 766 billion mark, which is the average price of altcoins over the last 9 days. Here, we would need to break through this 50-day moving average, which rejected us last Monday, Tuesday, to start saying "Yeah, altcoins are looking good for now." Well, it's rising steadily, the bears are losing some momentum. Well, why not? There are bullish divergences that have appeared, right. That was Friday, last Friday. So that's rather bullish for why it's rising. Could it continue to rise? Yes, clearly, because the bulls are tired, and structurally, it hasn't changed. We had the surge last Friday, then a rise, we call that small wave A. All of this is small wave B. Is it finished? Not necessarily. As long as we don't break the all-time high of altcoins around 837 billion here. What is this 837 billion? Well, it's funny, it's exactly the 50-day moving average, you see. So as long as you don't break the 50-day moving average, which is this high, you can still be in wave B, which can be done in three parts, right. Small A, small B, small C. It can be wave B like this for A, B, then boom, C. However, after that, don't forget that there will be another little cartridge. Well, that's the idea of the structure, it doesn't change. So in short, as long as altcoins don't break their 50-day moving average here, you have to expect that boom, they will go for a little dip to look below last Friday's low, below this low. So as long as it's not here, it can go down, down, down to look there. Especially since we are still in a small bullish channel. Bullish channels aren't very pretty, though. Well, however, once this wave B is finished, it will make a nice little rise, and that nice little rise, well, it will break here. It can even break this high, clearly, for this A, for this B, boom for this C. So we will have a structure like this when it pushes, it will be great, but we will say be careful, the little cartridge is missing, which will arrive later.
Now you will see more precisely on our little beloved Bitcoin, which is pushing to $113,155. Very good. Now it will hit a lot of resistance, up to 100, let's round up to 116,000. Up to 116,000 it will be tough. Be careful, 116,000 is right in the short zone. So the structure of our beloved Bitcoin is the same. Little surge here. Very good. Small A, small B. It's simple, if it starts to push here, as long as it doesn't break $116,000, so this resistance, we could have boom boom boom. You see, a small wave like this. That's the idea. And in that case, there will be an A, then a B, then a C, and that will make something like this for this big A, this big B. Boom, this big C. So, you understand that we will still be wallowing in the mud, you see. In the mud. Well, as long as it doesn't break $116,000, it won't be pretty. It will be a decline. Now, if it breaks $116,000, oh, it's starting to be good. If it breaks, that means okay, A, small B, then small C. Can you have a contracting? No, you can't have that. It simply means that here, we are making wave A. Well, all of this is, sorry, wave A here, sorry, and all of wave A here, which is finished. And here, wave B is starting if we begin to break this. And that's good news, very good news. It means that we will make wave B, which will zig zag, zig zag, zig zag. Very good. And as long as we don't break $126,000, boom, there will still be this wave C, which will validate, well, simply, the regular to take off. Well, I know I'm repeating myself because, after all, the structure doesn't change from one day to the next. So in short, as long as we don't break, what does the structure tell us? As long as we don't break $116,000, you should expect some dipping, okay? That it will dip a little because it's A, small B, small C, you see, it's like that. It can gain a little, it can gain a little, but as long as it doesn't break this high, this will be a small regular for the descent. This small regular, well, simply, this will be the big wave A here, which continues. This is a big A. So it continues to fall, meaning, well, if you zoom out, zoom out, zoom out, you see, hop, we zoom out. Well, it means that simply all of this is still wave A. It falls, it makes a small regular, it falls again, it can continue. All of this is wave A. And in short, is wave A finished or not? That's the question we're asking ourselves. Is $103,000, that's it, a nice short-term bottom? Well, if we break $116,000, it means that wave B is starting, and therefore wave A is finished there, and that would be good news. There you go, it would mean that we are heading towards the end of the structure, towards the second wave. After that, there will just be the third. The third will be a C that will dip. But in any case, we are moving forward. Why? It wouldn't be bad? Because if here, as long as we don't break $116,000 and we fall, it means we are continuing wave A. And that's not good. Not good because wave A, the fact that it is larger, means that wave B will be large, and wave C, oh my god, it can go down to 92. You see, for a big giant regular like this. That's why if Bitcoin breaks $116,000, we will say "Ah, well, finally, the corrective structure will be that big because it means that wave A finished at $103,000. Now, that doesn't mean it can't do something like this and then boom, go to 98. Well, seeing 92 is possible, you see, the vaccine might dip, you see. Well, but in any case, it will dip less than if it doesn't go to 116 and continues because A will be larger, and then it might dip a bit more, you see, the correction. So now, we will see. So we'll have to hold on tight and pray that it breaks these highs here, and it will hurt a little less. But the correction will hurt, don't forget, even if wave B is starting here, at some point, there will be a wave C because as long as Bitcoin doesn't make a new all-time high, that's what you need to remember, it should, it should come back to below $103,000. Unless it does something tricky that it has already done, it's a contracting, you see. Well, it remains possible, where wave A does this, wave B does this, wave C does this, it contracts, and then it explodes. These are rare structures, well, but they are possible. And why do I say that? Those who say "Well, but me, I'm waiting for it to come back below $103,000." Well, be careful, there are structures, contracting ones that Bitcoin has done from time to time in the past, which means that it contracts, it's rare, but it exists. Boom! There you go. So, there's nothing better than a little DCA, calmly. That's the idea regarding liquidity, we see that it's accumulating a lot in the south. So you understand, there are two solutions. Either we don't go to 116 because 116 is where? 116 is around here. So it can just gain a little before going to 116 and bam, we continue wave A to eat all of that because it's not pretty here. There are 8 billion dollars to eat at $100,000. So you understand that if we are lucky, it will quickly pop $16,000 to go, I don't know, to 118, 119 for example, to eat that, and 118, 119, and then boom, that will be good news because we will make, well, simply, well, wave A, then wave B, then wave C, and then it's off, and then wave C can go up to $100,000, and then it's back to all-time highs. We have finished the correction. That would really be the bullish scenario, you see. Bullish scenario, that at $100,000. Bearish scenario? Well, it's that ultimately it will gain a little, but like up to 115, it won't break 116, it will just eat a little of that, you see. It will nibble. I'll put a little line here, you see. So it won't break this high, I'm putting it in yellow. It will stop just before to eat liquidity. Just a little bit of that, and then boom, it will turn back down to $100,000 to eat all of that. And there, it doesn't look good because that would mean we are still in the big wave A, you see. And it will be bad, it can dip hard, you see, it will really be tough. Well, let's go now, Ethereum. So Ethereum, well, everyone has the same structure, clearly. So Ethereum here, as long as it doesn't break around $4,300. Well, we can still see it. Boom, continue the hell and go below $3,464. So same structure as everyone, the big cartridge, the big purge. Then small A, small B, if it makes a small C to break the high, that will be good news. That means we have A, we have B, we will just wait for C, and then it will take off again. But if it doesn't break this high, it means that well, it continues here in this wave, in small A, then A, small B, small C. All of this is B. If it comes back to break this, well, it makes A, it makes B, it makes C. It makes a horrible thing like this for this A, for this B, for this Z. And so you haven't finished eating mud off the floor. Well, all together, right. So you see that the last, the last high here, $4,300 for Ethereum, and here $116,000 for Bitcoin, they are very important. They will tell us if the correction will last not very long, like a few weeks, or if we will be cold, with winter, and our wallets will also be cold if it lasts longer. For now, the bears are tired, which is rather good news. There are also bullish divergences being drawn for Ethereum that will help it, and everything will be decided, well, here at this level. There you go, it's $4,300, clearly. Now, if we take a quick look at liquidity, $4,300 is here. So, can it, can it go to $4,300 or higher? It can, but it can stop just before $4,300 to just eat this chunk. It can even stop at $4,150, at $4,002 to just nibble at that. So bullish scenario, it would be that it goes above $4,003. Very good. So, what is it doing? It will go miam miam miam miam miam above $4,003 to eat. Here it's in crumbs, you see, it's really hungry. Very good. That's rather good because we will have small A, small B, small C. That's it, we will have this wave B that is here. We are happy. And we will finish A, B, and then C because as long as Ethereum doesn't break $4,960, well, boom, even $4,757, it will go below $4,364, the low, to finish the big structure. You see, A, B, then C, which is here. And so, it simply means that if it does, first it nibbles bullishly above $4,003, and then it will go miam miam miam, eat below $3,464, $3,464, well, you see, it's limited, all of this. That's the idea, but this is the bullish scenario, you see, it means that the structure, well, we have finished A, B is in progress, we are just waiting for C to dip, and then it will take off again. The not-so-good scenario is like I'm doing it for Ethereum, as I did for Bitcoin, it nibbles but it doesn't break $4,003, it stops just before, and then boom, it falls back lower. There you go. Well, that's not great. That means we have here small A, a small B, a small C here. Now, if it falls back, normally it should go and break these lows. It should clearly break lower because here you will have a small A, a small B, a small C like this. And then for this A, well, good. Ah, it's not obliged to go and break the low. It's really not obliged, but it would be a small, a small thing like this, I think, or it will break the low, or it means that the big A is unfortunately continuing, you see, and that will be ugly. It will be very ugly that, well, you will have here this A, this B, this C like this, then it will make boom boom and boom again. So twice we risk eating mud off the floor, twice, you see, but it can be much lower mud. It can be a gap at $2,850, you see. So $4,300 will be very important. There you go, just like Bitcoin. The 116 for Solana. Well, it's all the same for everyone. I won't go into it. I think you've understood. Now, the positive side is that it's pushing. Now we need to look for the Kijun 204, the moving average here, around 50 at 215. Solana, well, everything will be decided. I'm also putting a little line to show you like Bitcoin, this high around 211, you see, 211 which is almost the 50-day moving average. Around 211. But Solana is the same. If it starts to pop these 211, it's good news. You see, it would mean that, well, very good, we had the big correction here that fell, A, but finally we are on B which does this. And then, okay, there will be a wave C that will dip because as long as we don't break, well, it's around, the wave A started even here, around 237. So as long as we don't break 237, well, we will see A again at 170, but it's not too bad because you will have A, you will have B. We will just take a small C. There you go, a last small C that will dip. But after that, it's good, it's over. You see, that's the idea. Now, like Bitcoin and Ethereum, as long as it doesn't break this high, it will be hell once to go up, then hell lower a second time. There you go, simply. You understood that? It won't be very pretty. So it's done. Can it go and pop 211? Well, 211 is around here. So, well, it's like the others, it could nibble but stop before and then boom, hell, you see. And regarding XRP, it's the same, even uglier. So the 200-day moving average is at 259. Now, his important level to say "Ah, well, the correction won't be that big." Well, it's $2.64. If it starts to break $2.64, well, it will be like its peers, it will also be a correction, but less violent and smaller. There you go, that's the idea, it will last less time. And so, you see that around $2.64, it's not very far from the 200-day moving average. So as long as it doesn't break $2.64 here, we will see it again below 218, and I would even say 213. Now, $2.64, if we look at $2.64, it's around here, it's exactly like the others. So it's not obliged to go and eat there. If it wants to eat, it can stop before the big targets here and then do the return down. So bullish scenario is that it breaks $2.64 and it will look good. That means we will also have a wave that dips, but not that violent, and the bearish scenario is that it will just nibble a bit, it stops before, and then it risks dipping several times.
Now, regarding the stock market, for now, well, a little green but mixed. Wall Street, the Euro Stoxx 600 too. Anyway, until Friday, we won't have any major macroeconomic figures. It's really Friday when the inflation figures come out that will dictate the direction. So for now, the S&P 500 continues its little push, the Nasdaq too, the Dow Jones too, the Euro Stoxx 600 too, European tech too, everyone is happy, everyone is pushing. However, gold, boom. Go, first candle. So it's certain that engulfing red candles like this don't smell of bullishness, even less so of money. So here, gold will enter a small correction, an average correction or a large one, we don't know in advance, we are not Nostradamus, we don't predict things like that. Falling like this means, well, the wave will be big. So it will make a small A, it will make a small B, it will make a small B, you see, a small C, sorry. And after ABC, well, after that it can take off again. And ABC, well, it depends, it can be an ABC of a bear market. A can last several weeks, you see. B too, C too. You end up with corrections of many months. So here, it could be a small correction too. So the first candle tells us "Okay, a correction is starting." Now we need to see if it's small, medium, or large. If it's medium or large, well, it will be rather good for our beloved Bitcoin, that's for sure. Well, then, the barrel continues to fall a bit. That's good for deflating inflation a bit. Everything that is mining today, well, it's not too bad. It's green, they are still buying some US Treasury bonds. That's also good, it reduces yields. So if yields are very low on the bond market, investors will look for yields elsewhere. And where is elsewhere? Well, it's often in the stock market. Yields are high. You see, when the bond market is sold off heavily, yields rise, and then money starts to flow in. So there's a lot of money. And on the other hand, when yields are negligible on the bond market, people put their money elsewhere. You won't put your money where yields are completely crushed, it's normal. And the dollar today has a small green candle, it's funny that the dollar is in the green, gold is exploding in red. So simply taking profits in gold, which has pushed very well. And our little beloved Bitcoin, well, it likes it when gold goes down, but especially with this chart that shows you, well, as soon as gold does, well, Bitcoin takes off, you see. It's quite, it's quite, it's quite pretty. Well, there you go friends, for this little video. I hope you enjoyed it. I send kisses and see you tomorrow. Bye bye.