Transcription
What's up, guys? It's Dan from Coinb Trading. Today, we're going to take a look at the Bitcoin mini cycle, ETH season, and altcoin season.
If this is the kind of content that you enjoy, then be sure to smash that like button, subscribe to the channel, and ping that notification bell. Before we get started, do keep in mind that nothing in this video is financial advice. It's just my personal analysis of the crypto market. Your analysis could be different. And if it is, that's awesome because the more difference of opinion that we have, the better traders and the better investors we're all going to become.
So, I want to quickly start off, guys, with just looking at the total crypto market cap on the weekly because it's actually been, I think, a couple weeks since I've shown this chart. Uh, basically, for those of you who don't know, uh, what I've basically been highlighting here is that every single time the total crypto market cap would break above a key resistance level, it would basically go up only for around 6 weeks. We saw that in early 2024 and we saw that in late 2024.
The one thing that I kind of got wrong, I would admit, I would argue as well, uh, is that we kind of had, you could say almost like a false breakout, let's say, like in, uh, back in late July, uh, early August, basically like I was expecting a pullback in mid August. It kind of happened in late July, early August. Doesn't matter. Point being is that the uh the price action that we kind of saw let's say uh in uh in July and late July was kind of similar to what we saw actually in late 2023 early 2024 like just before uh that uh that initial melt let's say that first rally uh where there was kind of a chop like a little bit of struggle some chop for a few weeks and then we saw that kind of like six week meltup and as you guys can see it really looks like that six week meltup is starting this week and I do expect it to continue uh basically uh well I mean for the next six weeks roughly so into middle of September at least uh is really weird. Like a lot of people are saying that I'm calling for a crash in like midsepptember or something. That's not true. Uh we'll just be taking things one step at a time. But for now, uh the key takeaway is that this kind of six week six week meltup that we've seen in previous uh instances where total broke above this resistance trend line, we are now seeing finally, you know, after a little bit of chop, we're seeing a basically break above on a longerterm time frame. Again, this is on the weekly.
Uh anyways, moving on now to Bitcoin and the so-called mini cycle. So, it's really funny. Like I remember when I was explaining the mini cycle last week and I was specifying look like you know sometime around August 9th we're going to see basically a big move higher and it's probably going to last for another 10 or 11 days cuz that's kind of what we've seen in these previous mini cycles specifically when the RSI is super oversold when the RSI is kind of like at a lower level then we tend to see um basically a mini cycle to the upside whereas if the RSI is already kind of high then we see uh basically a move to the downside which is what we saw in June. Uh but anyways, the point being is that it looks like this mini cycle was right yet again. And it looks like we're going to be getting a move here over the next, I don't know, let's say, I don't know, until the 20th, roughly the 20th of of August, uh with Bitcoin probably rallying up to around 130,000. So that's looking good. That looks like it's on track. And of course, uh when like when Bitcoin rallies, eventually everything else follows. And as you guys will know, like ETH has arguably kind of been leading things for the last week or so. But we'll come to Ethereum in just a second.
The last thing I want to kind of point out just on a a longer term time frame, bigger picture before we get into Ethereum and altcoins and everything uh is basically looking at the DXY uh the dollar index as I've noted last week and over the weekend. Uh basically uh historically when the DXY sees a first leg lower that has corresponded to a Bitcoin rally and that's what we saw in 2017 and what we saw in uh 2020 and when well 2020 and kind of like early 2021. Uh and then the second leg lower uh is uh is corresponds to an altcoin season. Uh, and as you guys can see, like we look like we're about to get a second leg lower here, uh, going into the next few weeks. And if we actually zoom in to the daily chart, uh, you'll see that uh, that yeah, like the DXY looks like it's about to continue rolling over. It's about to get that second leg lower. Literally any day now. I don't know exactly when. A lot of people have been asking like what is the specific target you're watching. Uh, probably for a drop below n like 98 on the DXY. That would probably confirm a continued breakdown lower. Does that mean altcoins would immediately rally the moment that happens? Probably not. There'll probably be a lag of like a week or two or something. Uh but uh but still point being is that again first leg lower in the DXY has historically corresponded to a Bitcoin rally. Second leg lower has historically corresponded to an altcoin season and we are on the brink of getting that second leg lower. So I guess that gives you a little bit of a spoiler as to what I'm going to say about altcoin season uh later in the video.
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Uh anyways, moving on now to Ethereum. So this is where things get very interesting and it's up for debate of course. Um so as some of you guys might know like when it comes to the price action of crypto like when we see something like this for example in the previous uh cycle where Ethereum kind of rallied up to around let's say 4,800. I would make the argument that this was something that was driven primarily by leverage and not necessarily that was something that was like organic spot buying or whatever. And if that's the case again I'm just I'm just throwing this out there. If that's the case, then you could make the argument that Ethereum is kind of in a I would say like maybe even more convincing breakout now uh than it was back in uh in 2021. A little bit hard to kind of like wrap your head around, but the point being is that it looks like Ethereum is just going to completely just just power through like whatever happened here, like this price action between, let's say, I don't know, 4,300 to 4,800. It looks like Ethereum is just going to completely just power through that in the next like week or two is is basically what I'm trying to say here. Uh, and of course we're looking here on the um on the RSI on the weekly. It's sitting around 70. So it looks like Ethereum has room to rally here and it looks like it's going to get above that level and of course continue powering higher probably somewhere to the 90 range. And I do think that Ethereum is probably going to top. I'm I'm actually in agreement. I believe Ben Cowan has his target around 6 7,000 7 and a half thousand something like that. I'm in agreement. I think it's going to be somewhere around 7 and a half thousand maybe 8 and a half thousand something like that. But point being is that Ethereum is clearly breaking out here on the weekly.
Of course, all the focus has been on Ethereum and the result is that everyone is talking about ETH season. Just the one quick thing I'll mention about that guys is that most altcoins kind of like with the most economic value, they all exist on Ethereum. So with ETH rallying, you've seen a lot of other blue chip altcoins like layer 2, uh Lido Finance, Athena, uh you've seen these cryptos massively outperform Ethereum over the last couple of weeks, especially over the last week. Uh and so I do find it, I would say, a little bit funny that everyone is saying like, "Oh, it's ETH season. Everyone focus on ETH." But it's like, but bro, the blue chips in Ethereum's ecosystem, even chain link, which like everyone knows about chain link, right? Chain link has been massively outperforming ETH. All these blue chips on Ethereum are massively outperforming ETH. And in my opinion, it literally takes 5 minutes of research to figure out, wait, Lido Finance, second largest by TVL. It's rallied by like, I don't know, 80% over the last week or whatever, right? I'm actually, as a full disclosure, guys, I'm long Lido with 5x leverage and I'm up like 3x already like in the last, I don't know, couple of days. So like again like and again I'm not like necessarily advocating for that and just do keep in mind guys that uh that there's going to be a lot of volatility and a lot of these cryptos are kind of overbought on shorter term time frames. So if you hear me talking about Lido and you go long don't be surprised if it falls you know whatever it is 15% in the short term. I'm not saying that's going to happen. It's just a risk especially when you have you know such a big rally that's happened over the last couple of days.
Point being is that yes, it is ETH season, but the thing is that most altcoins with economic value exist on Ethereum and Ethereum blue chips benefit the most when ETH rallies. So yes, it's ETH season, but blue chips on Ethereum are rallying a lot. And we're also seeing a lot of altcoins in Ethereum's ecosystem in general rally a lot, even more so than Ethereum, especially over the last week. So just something to keep in mind there.
Uh this begs the question, of course, when is the actual altcoin season, you know, this kind of like broad broad altcoin rally going to start? Well, I'll start by recapping something I had mentioned also in my previous update. If you guys might remember, we were looking at Bitcoin dominance. I think it was the video on Thursday. Uh or maybe it was over the weekend, I can't remember. Uh but, uh basically, I was pointing out that look, it looks like Bitcoin dominance is going to get another leg lower. And that's exactly what's happened over the last few days. Bitcoin dominance seems to be falling. Of course, it's, you know, it's kind of battling with this 60% level, which seems to be a key key level in like many more ways than one. Psychological level, previous support, previous resistance, whatever. Uh but in my view and and you know feel free to disagree in the comments. I don't think there's any like this is kind of the one annoying thing about crypto is that there's no strict definitions of like what specific like what do you count as an altcoin season right and that varies from person to person right like Ben Cowan has his own view other people have their own view I have my own view and in my opinion and again feel free to disagree I think that altcoin season will be considered started once Ethereum has hit a new all-time high and once Bitcoin dominance has fallen below 60%. And as you guys can see, like both of these things are very close to happening, like literally in the next week or two. And as soon as that happens, you can make the argument that altcoin season has started.
And as a fun fact, guys, and maybe I'll pull it up just for fun. Uh if we look at the sole ETH chart, so of course a lot of people have been looking, you know, at at Soul ETH, and they've been saying, "Oh my god, like it's totally over like uh you know, like a basically you know, Ethereum is going to outperform, Salana's dead for this cycle, whatever." What's actually really interesting though, guys, is you can very clearly see like again, you don't need to be like some master chartist, right? like you know my indicators are super super basic here. It looks like soul ETH has already bottomed here like you know and if has if it hasn't bottomed that then it's very close to bottoming from a purely technical perspective you could say hey we have a 0.082 here as like kind of like the starting point we have 0.062 as kind of like the midpoint and then of course when you have a breakdown below that level then you basically just subtract 0.002 like the difference and that gives us a target of 0.042 042, which if you actually zoom into the 4hour chart, I think you'll see that was actually tagged like literally like over the weekend on August 9th, like we hit that level. So, it's possible, again, like I'm not saying that that's guaranteed, but it's possible that Soul's underperformance against ETH is over. And again, this is supportive of the idea that this quote unquote ETH season is is basically probably like a week or two away from being over and we're going to start to see other altcoins really outperform ETH, including other large caps like Soul and XRP and Sooie and whatever else, right? So again, you know, a lot of people have been talking about ETH season, but they forget that Ethereum like it it rallied like 55% in July, right? So it's Ethereum is already up a lot. It's already seen a lot of gains. It's probably going to take a breather soon, start chopping a little bit, right? While other altcoins catch up. And some of you guys might remember the last time that Ethereum started chopping, Soul just like completely took off, right? So something to keep in mind. It's crazy how people forget these things, but you know, it's understandable. There's a lot of news, a lot of things to keep up with. I don't even remember what video I did last. So there we go.
Anyways, uh last thing kind of like to look out for in terms of altcoin season. So, what we're looking at here, guys, another chart we haven't looked at, I guess, in a while, maybe like a week or two, uh is the others, of course, and this is others on the daily. Of course, others measures altcoins outside of the total crypto market cap of altcoins outside of the top 10. So, it's kind of like a, you know, like a decent proxy for altcoins in general. Uh, and as you guys can see, it looks like others is about to break out again. Um, I mean, it's kind of painting a bull flag technically speaking here over the last few days, but it does need to get above this resistance level of around 310 billion. Once it does, then we can zoom out here to the weekly. And you can see that what I've kind of outlined here is, you know, this this kind of like chunk here. You could have argued that this what happened here in July, that was the altcoin rally. And the altcoin season is still coming. And I do believe that this altcoin season again will start uh from a from a technical perspective when others breaks above 310 billion.
So in some guys, you could say that there's kind of three criteria to altcoin season in this case. First criteria again, Ethereum breaking out to a new all-time high, which I literally think is going to happen in the next week. Second criteria, Bitcoin dominance seeing a clean break below 60% which I also think is going to happen in the next week. Of course, you know, I'm sure someone's already gonna be typing in the comments, but that break in Bitcoin dominance lower, uh that would probably be caused by Ethereum going up. That's true. But even if we look at something, for example, like the ETH BTC chart, uh you can see that uh the EBTC is actually close. Um if we go on the monthly actually, and then we threw on our handy Ballinger bands here, guys, check this out. You can see that uh that ETH BTC is close to basically hitting a local top here probably well it has another 10% let's say roughly to rally but it looks like ETH's outperformance again against BTC is close to being over again probably in the next week or two that'll probably mark uh the end we can even see like from a resistance perspective it goes all the way back to like 2017 but anyways uh it looks like ETH doesn't have that much more room to run against Bitcoin and again as we were just looking at guys sole ETH right sole ETH has looks like it's already kind of bottomed and it looks like it's going to bounce so when you combine that and the fact that others looks like it's about to break out. That suggests that when we see that drop of Bitcoin dominance below 60%. Yes, maybe the trigger for that will be Ethereum, but what comes after that will be an altcoin season if that makes any sense. Like basically what again what the sole ETH chart shows, what even the ETH BTC chart suggests and what the others chart suggests is that when Bitcoin dominance drops below 60%. This is going to be something that is driven primarily by other altcoins and including uh small caps. And again, I don't think people are going to start feeling good and confident and like bullish until we get above this long-term resistance trend line on others, which is around 360 billion or 370 billion, let's say. And I do think this is going to be hit by the end of the month. Once we're at that stage, that's when I think people are going to start feeling good and thinking, "Oh my god, finally we're back cuz, you know, when we're in the middle of this range, people are like, "Oh, I'm not so sure." Some are bullish, some are bearish. The closer we get to the bottom of this range, people say it's over. And uh now we're kind of, you know, squarely back up heading up to this upper range. So, expect to see a lot of people saying that we're so back in the next week or two. Uh, and uh, and then, you know, it's going to be interesting to see what happens after that.
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