Transcription
Guess what? There are 7 billion people on the planet who've never been able to partake in capitalism. That is the positive story for Bitcoin. It's going to happen so fast that individuals, companies, governments will not be able to move fast enough. And that's what's starting to happen. That's what I'm kind of looking for is that the risk is for the next 3 weeks. And at that point, maybe Bitcoin's down at 40,000 or maybe it hangs in here and it seems to rotation.
What's going on, guys? Today we've got an amazing conversation with Jordi Visser. We recorded this live in front of a huge audience, 2500 people at Bitcoin Investor Week this week. Now, right before Jordy came onto stage, I was interviewing Kathy Wood and Kathy was talking about deflation being a big risk and a lot of the tech stocks or software companies, how she thought that the recent pullback in those stocks was actually something that's just going to be a blip on the radar. Jordy disagreed and that was the first thing he wanted to talk about when he came on the stage. So, here's my conversation with Jordy Visser.
By the way, before you ask me a question, I disagree with half of what Kathy said, so if you want to start there, we can go there.
>> I trust me, you already have told me that, so I can't wait. Uh, which parts do you disagree with?
>> Um, you should have had them just like battle it out, you know? It been amazing.
>> No, no, this is really important. And I mean, I I vehemently disagree wholeheartedly with this uh COVID comparison. So, for all of you, your portfolio is everything. I will I will tell you a fact. Um AI is not a temporary thing. So when I hear someone compare this to CO that would mean this is just a panic thing. This is not algorithmic. So you know if you guys have listened to our show I have been emphatic about the fact that by 2030 most of the S&P 500 companies are going to be disrupted. So I just want you to look up a statement and this is what I'm going to do on the weekend. Um Elon Musk has said that AI is a supersonic tsunami. What is happening in the market right now is exactly that. Software names can't catch a bid for a reason. They're making money. This is not about what they are today. A growth company. And this will all lead into positive things for Bitcoin eventually, so don't worry about it. But um when Kathy talks about this being temporary, that is a mistake for everyone whose owns software names. This is never going away. There are no winners in terms of winning. The winners are not public companies. So when Kathy tells you there are winners in AI, I don't work for a public company anymore. I don't work for a company. I chose that because the power of AI is for individuals sitting at home. And guess what? There are 7 billion people on the planet who've never been able to partake in capitalism. That is the positive story for Bitcoin, but everyone has free intelligence now. Everybody.
So, what is going on literally as we sit here and I at a morning meeting today, I said to everyone, Opus 4.6 came out last week. I didn't have the time last week to spend with it. Guys, it's five times more powerful than Opus 4.5, which is what caused this whole disruption. So we are speeding up at a point where recursive self-improvement is happening as we speak which means the models are building themselves. So to sit there and think that there is a public company with individuals in friction having worked in it and watch the pantry conversations with people that don't work hard this is over meaning this stuff is real. So the market has to digest this. It has to go through this. And I bring this up because this is not going to change. So the hyperscalers are at risk. the software companies are at risk not to collapse cuz they're going to make money but what is happening in the market is they are dealing with the fact that no company now has a moat their businesses are no longer defensible and my attraction to Bitcoin was based on my belief that the only moat that Bitcoin has is what Mike Novagrat said it is a community-based asset that is built on code and the game of investing money is a game of musical chairs there's a rotation happening and people are avoiding everything that's built on code. They're moving it into physical things which will continue because we're in a race to build out the data center. So, I do not want people leaving here thinking they can just go out and buy any technology innovation name because AI is coming for all of them and I think it's going to be a long long road for a lot of these software companies over the course of the next 5 years trying to deal with this.
>> Google I think was mocked two years ago. They're behind in AI. They don't know what they're doing. They're asleep at the wheel. Now, I think a lot of people are saying, "Wow, Google is, you know, doing very well and they're going to be able to leverage their distribution and this tech they've been able to build, etc." Why doesn't every one of these uh tech names just go build AI, use AI, incorporate it into their business? Like, what is the disconnect there?
>> Well, there there's there's two problems with this. So, and again, Google's going to get caught up in this as well, even though their model is great and everyone loves them. In in the most recent earnings reports, we had a total of $1.2 trillion of what are called RPOS, which you can think of as liabilities or future orders that hopefully they'll get. And those are based on building out data centers. And in this country, we are getting data center cancellations every single day across the country. Um, you're getting all toxins and stuff that are showing up. This is going to be a major story. Uh, I think Google falls into the same trap. The only way they can monetize this is actually to have the ability of letting all these AI agents run on their data centers, but they don't have the data centers to handle the flow and the volume. We're at the agentic acceleration right now. AI agents are working, they're running, they're going fast. And so the only way that they can make the money off it at this point is through the cloud usage and they're not going to have enough cloud usage because they can't get the data center. So when you mentioned Google, they fall into the same micro problem as Microsoft. The only difference with Microsoft is they actually have something that's usable. But there's a a new problem that also fits in with these companies that people have to understand. I'm finally using a Chinese model. I've never done that before. The reason I'm using now Kimmy 2.5 is cuz I have my own machine with AI agents now. And again, I'm old school. I didn't know how to do anything on a computer, honestly, a year ago, uh, 18 months ago, other than the basic stuff. And now I have AI agents running on a Mac Mini inside my apartment and I'm using a Chinese model because it's free. So the problem with Google and all these places and this does get to the deflation thing that Kathy mentioned and it's something that you've talked about. It's really hard to avoid the deflationary aspect and since most people and I was just at a conference where 80s something% of endowments and foundations thought inflation was going to be higher a year from now. So the reality is we have a deflationary situation that's happening and the reason is because AI is driving that deflation as we speak.
>> Do we actually get to deflation or is it just like this disinflationary where like we'll still have a little bit of inflation. It'll just be much tamer and you know kind of under control maybe it's half a percent 1% 1 and a half% but we don't actually go negative.
>> Yeah. Now you you highlight true inflation repeatedly which is basically
>> you like it.
>> Yeah. No, no. I So the difference between true flation and and core CPI is pretty much all the shelter calculation.
>> Well, one can count the other camp, but yeah, go ahead.
>> Yeah, one uses 80,000 inputs, one uses or what they say 35 million inputs. So we'll we'll we'll go through the what's better, what's not. Um, but the shelter component and how you deal with shelter is the difference in the calculation. So, if history serves well, unless we're going to see a bounce in the housing market, which I see zero chance of that happening, given the fact that people are under pressure at their work, I don't see that going on. If the stock market falls, you're definitely not going to have it. What would cause deflation is if the stock market falls off. And the reason I brought up the supersonic tsunami, I if all of you raised your hand and I said, "What's the largest position in your portfolio?" and maybe you've got a trading account, but if you have a pension or you have anything, your biggest positions are software stocks. Not because you chose them, but because you're in the S&P 500 or you're in some kind of ETF that has mainly software in it. So, I advise all of you to check that and go through it because that's the stuff that's pulling the market. At some point, if you imagine trying to transfer all of the money in the world so quickly, and that's what Elon Musk said, there's a tsunami, which is structural, but there's supersonic, which was all about the fact it's going to happen so fast that individuals, companies, governments will not be able to move fast enough. And that's what's starting to happen. I'm worried by what I saw in the last week mainly from Anthropic because if you guys didn't see it, one of the lead researchers on their safety group resigned and he talked about why he resigned. He's going to do poetry now. That's how scared he is of what's coming. Daario Modi wrote a paper on the negatives of AI. And the reason he's writing that is because he has models six months ahead. We're at the point now where they said we had the model opus 4.6 go through our code. This is a mo A AI company and see how many bugs they could find. They found 500 security places they could break into. That is the power of AI agents. That's the power of these models. If you can break into Anthropic, they can break into your bank account and everything else. So, we've reached a point where the governments and everyone in the world just has to deal with the fact that this is no longer a game. We've reached the point that security is going to be an issue. And again, if I go back to the Bitcoin story, this makes cryptography much more important. Whenever I hear quantum, and quantum is not close to breaking anything there. We actually have something that will break things faster, which are agent swarms, and those are picking up now. And that's why go read about the safety person who resigned and went to go do poetry and go read Dario Modiso.
>> So, let's say everything you just said is right. What do investors do? Do you invest in private companies? Do you hoard seashells? Do you buy Bitcoin? Like what what do you do?
I So in in the basics of what the government will do, there's lots of companies that are going to make money. And in the case of the hyperscalers, what we're talking about now is not the S&P 500 not making money. We're actually talking about multiple compression. Meaning they're moving the multiple of the market down. And the reason they're doing that is because every industry is now under attack as to whether their business is actually defendable against this side. Normally that takes a long time. So one thing I do believe is that you'll get a panic. The hyperscalers are the most important thing. And when I say the hyperscalers, this is not Tesla. This is not Nvidia. This is not Apple. This is the four companies spending $650 billion this year. This is Meta. This is Microsoft. This is Amazon. This is Google. They're spending $650 billion this year. If they don't get the revenues in, then what happens is their equity has to go down. And their equity has to go down from a cap structure basis. Now, again, they're making revenues over 15%. So, this is not some bad story. They have the capital to do this, but they become the line in the sand for everything. My gut tells me if anything bad is going to happen, it's going to happen in the next month or two. And the reason I say that is because the condition of mutual funds and hedge funds in trying to reposition for this. And the reason they reposition quickly is because they're paid on performance, and I was in that world. A hedge fund has month-to-month marks. If they're down 10%, they have to reduce risk.
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You, I think, also have this thesis of like scarcity is valuable, which is not unique, I think, to to your view, but you have talked about memory shortages. You've talked about certain precious metals or industrial metals that are are scarce. You've talked about Bitcoin. Is that fair to say that that is a key theme in a world of abundance of intelligence and software, you actually want to find the scarcity?
Yes. Um it it only took me a year and a half of talking to him every week to figure that one out.
>> So the beauty of of um of the way I think about Bitcoin in this scenario. So I'm hoping it gets flushed with everything else and all of you should hear too. This is a temporary thing and it's been matched up with SAS. I'd be more worried about Bitcoin if SAS was going higher and Bitcoin was going down. But these charts are overlaid for a reason because they're directly linked between the VC world and the investment side of the ecosystem, but also because of it's built on code. So it should go down. And my ultimate theme has been that eventually when software is deemed to be problematic and AI is kind of this hard thing to invest in, which is where we are, Bitcoin would start to outperform and then all of the meetings going on that you should invest in digital assets. You'll start to see the money flow in from the public companies and from the enterprises, from the wealth management people, but it's the only growth asset that is scarce. All these other places, commodities are not growth assets. Industrials are not growth assets for the now they are. Those are cyclical. Those are value. They're not growth assets. And most money is in a growth bucket. So if Bitcoin can break away when SAS bottoms, and that's what needs to happen is SAS needs to bottom. And once it bottoms and we've discounted enough, we're at the lowest multibles we've seen in the space since before the iPhone. So we're at a point where you could find a bottom at any point. And that's what I'm hoping is going to happen. But the repositioning that happens says, and I the reason I say a month, normally these things carry into the end of a month when it's been this bad and then you get another week of it and then you bottom out. That's what I'm kind of looking for is that the risk is for the next three weeks. And at that point, maybe Bitcoin's down at 40,000 or maybe it hangs in here and it seems to rotation.
>> Everyone in this room is an investor in some capacity, whether professionally or in their personal account. Uh you have uh done this huge deep dive on using AI on a day-to-day basis. You come from the investment world. What are your tips or maybe direction that you can give to these folks on where should they start or how should they be using these tools to become a better investor?
You know, first thing I would do is just if you were recording what I said, just put that in the chat, GBT, and find where my holes are and uh correct me on on whatever things are there. I I I think people should be using it every day at this point. Um if not for you guys, for your kids. Um I think it's a mistake for anyone to not realize how fast it's moving. We're past the point, and I've said this for a while now, but we are really past the point. Opus 4.5 to Opus 4.6 is shocking to me. Um, Eric Schmidt didn't think we'd be at recursive self-improvement until next year, maybe late latter part of this year. The fact that we're there now should scare the hell out of everyone because nobody's ready for it when the leaders of the frontier models are saying it. So, my big thing is get used to it. Incorporate it into your life, it's only going to accelerate faster and faster. And regardless if another data center is built, it's already insanely powerful what you can do with it. So, I'm on it all day long as a curiosity freak. I love it. The world's not going away. Even if the stock market falls down, you're going to have lives. Use it for your health. Use it for your kids in terms of developing new skills that they can learn to deal with this. We just created more jobs in a month than we had in a long time. Granted, they were all nurses and doctors in the healthc care field again, but there is a place where people can learn new skills. They can learn things. So, I I definitely highly recommend doing it. And you can always go to my website and now I've got videos out on showing people how they can do the things that I do. I was talking to Russell Oaken um for a while. It was a great conversation and I was very impressed with the way that he's thinking about it and we had a very deep conversation on the way to think about AI as a thinking partner and how to get use it and the way you do with work. But we talked about the thing it can't replace. And so you guys all know this for all the things I said about how it's disrupting businesses. It cannot handle human context and it cannot understand what humans want to read. I write three to four papers a week. They would not no one would care to read them if they were written by AI. It takes my thinking about what's someone else wants to read, what's in their mind, what they're worried about, what's going on. I'm actually speaking emphatically today to you guys because I want you to hear and be lucky that you're here to hear that hey if something goes on in the market you heard it from me that there's something really alarming going on with Opus 4.6 and the safety person leaving at Anthropic and why this is a bigger story than it should be.
>> Where can people go to subscribe to? You have two different substacks that you are writing. There's one for HRV and
>> I got a lot of time on my hands.
>> Okay. Well, we're all going to have a lot of time on our hands when AI takes all of our jobs. So, uh, you're ahead of the curve. Where can people go to subscribe to these? One, one is about health and HRV. The other is about markets and technology and kind of what you're seeing there.
>> Uh, everything I write, everything I do on my YouTube is geared for people to hopefully keep up on things. Um, HRV is a passion of mine. Happened during COVID that I started to pay attention. um if if you guys care about your health or family members, even if it's just my aura ring. I don't work for the company. In fact, I asked them if they wanted to be a part of my blog and they said no and I said fine. Um but it's really meant to help people have a warning system in their life. If you've gotten to know me, I'm a very uh mathematically driven analytics person. Everything is probability driven. I didn't want to die suddenly from the two things that cause you to die suddenly, cancer and heart disease of some sort. Uh, and I wanted to have a mechanism that would warn me. Uh, and I had to do two things for that to work. One is I had to raise my HRV to a level that put me back in my 20s, which I did. And then the second thing is to monitor if it ever goes down sharply in a short amount of time because that means your immune system's working. So, you can find that kind of stuff on my Substack. The rest of it, my YouTube, and all this, it's all related to AI, crypto, and macro. And if you haven't seen my YouTube, everything I talked about today, this weekend, I will go through a lot of this with articles you can look at, with data you can see. I don't just shoot from the hip. I Things build up over time, and I'm just more concerned about AI accelerating at a time when I still see people trying to buy software stocks. Jordy Visser, everybody.