Transcription
We're going to have trouble from the Wall Street wise guys. My biggest fear is with the proliferation of high yield ETFs, junk bond ETFs, the potential for a 2008 style credit contraction is very, very real.
Greetings and welcome to our Wealthon show. My name is Trey Reich and we're here today visiting with an old friend Rick Rule of Rule Investment Media. Uh, and before we get started, I want to remind Wealthon viewers who are interested in joining the Wealthon Real Assets community where they can gain full access of our curated content and commentary on the sector to please join us at wealthon.comget. Look forward to seeing you there.
Rick, thanks for taking the time to join us today.
>> A pleasure, Dre, coming here. I was reflecting on the fact that you and I have known each other and done business for about two decades. So, thank you for two decades of friendship as well as for the invitation to speak today.
>> Very kind. And the last time we had the opportunity to speak was February 10th, about two months ago. It's hard to imagine how quickly all parts of the precious metal universe change in two months. But back then, if you recall, uh we were going over gold's correction from late January highs, you know, around 5550 and silver touching 120. Uh by the 10th of February when we were speaking, uh gold had retreated to about 5,000 and silver was trading around 80. and we were discussing whether or not the precious metal bull market was over. Um, in about a month's time at March 2nd, gold had respond uh rebounded to 5,400 about 150 off that high and silver touched 14 about 15 bucks off its high. So do you think it's fair to say that in February uh performance of the precious metals seemed to indicate that the bull market was intact?
>> Uh yeah and I think our conversation then uh for those viewers who remember it was fairly instructive. Uh we talked about the fact that in the bullmark of the 1970s uh there were at least four 25% corrections. Uh a correction is a normal and num normal and natural function in a bull market. But it's more than that, Trey. Um the circumstances that should propel gold have been intact literally since the year 2000 and probably much more dramatically since 2018. Those circumstances were true during January and they were true during February. The only thing that changed is the price. If the circumstance is the same and you understand the circumstance, you should welcome low prices. I do and I did and in fact acted on it. Gold were a normal consumer good uh say it were per my old lectures a can of tuna fish or a winter coat and you needed it and by the way you need gold you would welcome a price correction as a sale. It's odd that the mindset of people who are shopping for consumer goods and the mindset of people who are uh pursuing financial goods are often very very different. Uh I suspect if you viewed the price weakness as an opportunity as opposed to as a risk that people who adopted that viewpoint would do much much much better with their portfolios.
And uh when we were speaking in early February, you were still taking a little heat I think on the internet for your silver sale silver sale and you were delivering a speech called the psychology of selling. Um, I think in retrospect you were pretty much on key with both of those themes. Uh, are you still in a psychology of selling mood or has that uh pivoted a bit?
>> Well, remember I was really repositioning uh Trey, I I bought my silver because it inhabited the speculative part of my portfolio. Uh, and I bought it specifically because it was hated when it was about 20 bucks an ounce. uh and I thought when the hatred subsided that the price would uh elevate to at least 50. I noted in an interview with you some years ago that uh the easiest money that's made in counter in cyclical investments comes from the migration from hated to not hated. And when that happened, I had to reflect on to as to whether silver was still the best place to park that portion of my speculative money. Doing the arithmetic, uh it became clear to me that the silver stocks were a better repository for my money than the silver. The by definition, if the silver price had traded sideways at $75 for 12 months, I would have made no money because it traded sideways. But the silver stocks were valued in the market as though trade silver were trading at$4 or $45. So I could make money on the silver stocks on a valuation basis where I couldn't make money on silver. If the silver price went up, the silver stocks would reflect that. Ironically, if the silver price continued to fall, given that the valuations were based on $45 silver, my suspicion was that I would do better in a declining silver market in the silver stocks than in silver because of the valuation discounts that exist that existed there. I also took some money all the way off the table or at least all the way off the table the way I refer to it, which is to say I bought some physical gold. I save in gold. I invest in high quality companies and I speculate in things like silver or the small silver producers. So, I took some money and I put it just flat out in savings, which to me is gold. And then I took 25% of the money and I bought the new hate which was oil and gas. uh that turned out to be much more timely than I had anticipated. I bought it with a view to 2028 or 2029. Uh unbeknownst to me, the world was about to do that part of my portfolio a favor.
>> So, it's you that was going to be one of my last questions, but since you brought it up, let's address it now. Uh I was going to point out that your oil purchases were in a strange way more than fortuitous. I'm sure that you wouldn't have wished what was the uh the uh event that occurred to make them go up. Um, we don't hope for things like this, but since it did occur, um just revisiting the oil sector and knowing your personality, are you already trimming there or are you still firmly bullish?
>> Uh you know, Trey, if I was a trader, I'd be a seller here. Uh oil is no longer hated. uh the same as silver. Uh but the oil business is such a good business and has treated me so well for so many decades that I'm staying that trade. Uh I expect the oil price to be higher in 2029 than it is today, irrespective of the war. It wouldn't surprise me to see the oil quotes marketkedly lower between now and then. uh and people who aren't thinking in half decade terms the way I do uh who had the courage to follow me uh earlier in this year might consider taking money off the table. Certainly in terms of establishing positions in the oil stocks uh I would advise waiting unless you have absolutely none at all. Uh, it was a no-brainer for me, Trey, uh, to tell to broad audiences, big audiences, audiences like yours, that buying Exxon at $100 was a good deal. Uh, telling people right now that buying Exxon for 175 or 180 is a bit more challenging for me. So, people need to use some discretion if they're entering the market.
>> Got it. Um, so you do think oil prices are headed to an area around $100 or higher in the next several years.
>> I absolutely do. We've had uh almost half a decade of underinvestment in sustaining capital in the oil and gas business. It's a capital intensive business. If you don't invest, you can't produce. And this sustaining capital deficit has been in the order of a billion dollars a day.
>> Wow. uh that has consequences. The second thing is that the prices of the inputs in both oil and gas and mining are rising fairly fast. And I would argue with you, I don't think I need to argue with you actually, but I would I would suggest to your audience that the purchasing power of the US dollar is declining. Uh and so talking about nominal 90 or $100 oil prices when uh if you believe like I that the purchasing power of the US dollar is declining at 8 or 10% compounded is not a very challenging ask. What you're suggesting is that the real price of oil stays the same while the nominal price of oil which is to say dollar oil priced in that floating abstraction called a dollar goes up. You ju you just mentioned a billion dollar a day capital expenditure deficit. Obviously that is going to catch people's attention. Can you give us a couple examples of what you're talking about there?
>> Sure. Uh until five or six weeks ago until the Gulf War in particular uh the rig count in US shale plays was down by 80%. uh in those shale plays which are responsible for the surge in US production which is itself responsible for most of the surge in the world's production uh about 80% of the net present value of the well is produced out in the first two years after which you have hyperbolic declines. If you don't continue to drill new wells and if you don't do periodic recompletions of old wells, your ability to produce falls precipitously. And that's just in the United States. Uh this is going on around the world. Uh and when I say sustaining capital investments, I'm talking about maintaining production from existing fields. I'm not talking about uh new project or development capital which has fallen even more precipitously. The consequences of these um sustaining capital deficits are fairly easy to watch in the real world. You will recall in 20201 uh during the COVID period that the oil prices fell briefly below zero but settled out at about 20 bucks a barrel. At 20 bucks a barrel, uh there was a negative 30 or $40 total margin including cost of capital and tax. So nobody was drilling. When the oil price rebounded, it didn't return to the marginal cost of production, which was $60. It overshot $60 to 90 or 95 as a consequence of an underinvestment in sustaining capital. The production went to production heaven. Uh if you want to look at it in a longer term uh look at two national oil companies PVA the national oil company uh of Venezuela the holder of the world's largest reserves and Mexico in both cases uh the domestic industry in those companies countries pardon me was controlled by the national oil firm and in both cases the politicians looted the national oil f uh uh firms to finance politically expedient domestic spending programs. The consequence of that in Venezuela uh the holder of the world's largest reserves uh volutric production fell by 85%. Uh in Mexico the fall was less precipitous. It only fell by 75%. But the truth is the compound effects of negative sustaining capital investments uh are are truly ugly. When you don't make the sustaining capital investment, your production two or three years out falls, which means that the free cash margins fall and your ability to make sustaining capital investments falls. So, it's truly a vicious circle. Uh, and that is what the oil industry has been involved in for a long time. It's important as an oil industry investor to note that there are some companies who are in fact uh keeping up with their sustaining capital investments. Ironically, the market has punished those uh the market has rewarded companies which have been cannibalizing themselves through share buybacks and high dividends. And so investors need to strike a balance between reasonable returns to owners of capital employed but also sufficient uh sustaining capital investments so that productions and distributions can be maintained.
And not to beat this uh to a pulp, but when there are shortfalls of a billion in capex, can uh equilibrium be reclaimed with just that billion or does it get geometrically worse to catch up?
>> Not geometrically worse, but arithmetically worse, particularly if those declines go on for a long time. In other words, if you have comp compound declines, a basin, as an example, like the Perian uh in West Texas and New Mexico is such a robust basin that it can tolerate a lot of sin. Uh it can tolerate a lot of sin. Uh and particularly if the operators in it are as well capitalized and as technologically savvy as the American producers are. But too much sin cannot be tolerated. uh and even in the perian uh the impact of deferred sustaining capital investments is coming home to roost. Uh in particular uh in addition to the rig count, the fact that we haven't uh invested enough to accommodate the byproduct saltwater production means that our ability to produce oil and gas is increasingly constrained because in addition to producing oil and gas, those wells produce copious amounts of salt water and it has to be put somewhere. And as the volumes well a as conventional production declines and you need to pull those reservoirs harder, you pour more and more water out of it to the extent that you don't develop additional saltwater disposal capacity. You limit your ability to do primary production and that's becoming a crisis in the perian. I'm not singling out the perian. I'm just trying to demonstrate the efficacy uh of the question that you asked.
>> Interesting. Well, we'll come back to oil uh at a future date. Uh you will recall that I distributed a fairly uh comprehensive letter on the 27th of February. I know you read it and the following day the world changed which in retrospect was kind of an interesting coincidence but um uh obviously the bomb started to fall uh in the Middle East on the 28th if I'm not mistaken and gold's in sort of a different position than it was uh when we published that letter. Um, because everybody is going to want to know this question. I'm going to ask it. It's not usually my style, but how has the precious metal market changed uh in the wake of the Iran conflict?
>> Well, in interesting ways. The Iran conflict had the ironic impact in the near term of strengthening the US dollar. Uh if you look at the performance of DXY uh roughly speaking the performance of the dollar against a basket of foreign currencies you're reminded of the genius of Doug Casey saying that the US dollar is the worst currency in the world with the sole exception of all the others. Uh exacerbating that if it's the right phrase has been the fact that u the Treasury seems to have lost control of the long-term interest rate and they may be losing control of the short-term interest rates. The fact that interest rates have risen as a consequence of market forces rather than being driven down by political forces has ironically increased the attractiveness of the US dollar given that gold is quoted in the US dollar. Uh gold has done poorly in dollar terms as the dollar has increased in value against currencies that haven't performed as well as the dollar. the gold market has been in good shape uh all the way through uh the market turbulence which has haunted some US dollar investors. What I think, Trey, needs to be pointed out uh is that to the extent that higher interest rates or the war, reduce demand or other factors begin to or or continue to slow down the US economy, it is highly likely that the policy response to that will be added liquidity. Uh quantitative easing, which Trey, if you did it, would be called counterfeiting. uh and artificially low interest rates both of which are negative for the dollar and good for gold. So I would suspect from the gold trader viewpoint uh we have endured short-term pain in return for long-term gain. Uh I note that I myself am not a trader particularly. Uh I own gold for insurance purposes and what I saw occur was simply a sale. uh simply the ability to add bullion to my own account uh for less money than I had expected it would have cost me and I'm certainly seeing the circumstance now with the uh second tier gold equities off 40 45% uh I see to me a real speculative opportunity uh in the mid-tier and some of the junior gold stocks.
So, I think uh you as usual hit the uh nail on the head in what you just said, and I'm going to rephrase it a bit. Um, I think that the one two three uh progression of why gold has been under pressure in the wake of the Iran war is pretty simple. We have oil prices up, inflation expectations have risen, and the market is concluding therefore that central banks are going to tighten. Uh as an example, the BOE and the ECB are now uh or at least money markets are pricing in that the BOE and the ECB will tighten 50 basis points this year and all expectations for those two Fed rate cuts have disappeared. So again, the progression is higher oil, higher inflation, and central bank tightening. And I think you would agree with me that it's that last connection uh assuming central bank tightening that is a grave mistake uh because I believe the next move from the Fed will be a cut uh not a hike. What do you think?
>> I completely agree with you. The appetite for the American political class and for that matter the appetite by the for the American investor class to take a pill to deal with the problem is nil. Uh secondly, uh we have to acknowledge whether we like it or not that the onbalance sheet liabilities the US federal government now exceed $39 trillion in addition to state and local indebtedness. the increase in the interest rate that the government pays, refinancing this debt, goes up, which allows them less leeway to spend in areas that are nearer and dearer to their hearts. I think the willingness even of the American taxpayer uh to do the obvious thing and let the market take its course is nil.
>> Yep. And with debt levels this high and the financing needs of both the Treasury and the AI wave, I think factoring in $100 oil is going to bring, you know, that that next Fed rate cut even closer to the four. Don't you think?
>> Uh I do. Uh let me say, Trey, uh unlike you, I wouldn't describe myself as a macroeconomist. uh what I am as a reasonably good study of polit student of political behavior and uh the appetite for doing the right thing I think is nil. Uh and I don't merely blame the politicians in this circumstance. I see a cacaphony uh of protest from my ilk and your ilk, the Wall Street guys uh saying save the bond market. um this is self-s serving behavior at best.
With respect to the deficit specifically, I'm sure you saw that there are a lot of uh newspaper articles written that in the first three days of the Iran war, the US expended $4.1 billion dollar of munitions, just munitions in the uh three days. And we're seeing the Pentagon ask for, you know, 200 billion more to the budget this year. So I think it is fair to assume that by the end of this year the deficit will uh have come in significantly larger than current estimates. Would you agree?
>> I would agree and I think the tax receipts will come in lower. Uh one of the things that you're seeing as an example in the copper price, the weakness in the copper price is a strong suggestion that the global economy is weaker than people think. uh and an economic slowdown as a consequence of the war is something that if it occurs and I think it will uh will reduce tax receipts. So the deficit is going to be under pressure from two directions. Lower tax receipts partially as a consequence of lower capital gains, you know, weak weak capital markets, uh lower income taxes as a consequence of a weaker economy and higher expenditures. Uh I think if there is a surprise this year to most folks, it will be the extent of the chasm between government receipts and government expenditures.
And with respect to the the Fed's behavior, uh I assume you have at least tangentially followed the explosion in what I would call private credit contagion. Has that caught your eye?
>> Yeah, you know, I've I've been in private credit markets myself for a very long time, Trey. Uh, and from a personal point of view, I'm delighted to see the weakness in private credit markets because I've been priced out of those markets.
>> Mhm.
>> Uh, as you know, I'm an oldfashioned lender. I kind of like to get paid back. Uh, and I like appropriately priced risks. And even in my own mining uh my own market which is mining private credit uh credits are being written today at 400 basis points below where they ought to be written. And the covenants that they write that are right that are being written right now are suicidal. They're insane. Uh they're basically telling the borrower pay us back if as and when you can. Uh that's not that's way too much leeway to give these guys as you know Trey. Uh, and I I don't think that we're going to find private we're going to find trouble in private credit from the veteran credit suppliers.
>> Mhm.
>> From the people who have been around for 20 years lending their own money. We're going to have trouble from the Wall Street wise guys. Uh, the people who saw a sector that was attracting dumb money from the endowments because it had worked for them in the past. That's where the problems are going to be. But unfortunately, the sector's grown so large that there is going to be a shakeout. And that shakeout is going to affect two things. It's going to make the investors more gunshy, but it's also going to stem the flow of credit, legitimate or illegitimate, to the private sector, which runs on credit. If we can make people a little more depressed before we make them comfortable, Trey, uh, the thing that really scares me is the extent to which credit concerns lead to a credit contagion. uh Allah 2008 specifically. My my biggest fear is with the proliferation of high yield ETFs, junk bond ETFs. Uh there's trillions of dollars worth of these things and they trade like absolute water. Many of them are owned by Moz and Paw who don't know much about credit but like 150 or 200 basis points extra yield without understanding the risks that they're running. Uh while these topline structures, the ETFs themselves are incredibly liquid. They trade billions of dollars a day. The components, the constituents in the ETFs are hugely illquid junk bonds, some of which trade every six weeks. To the extent that the uh popular press reports of private credit concerns begin to cause the m and paws to want to redeem these ETFs, the managers have to sell the bonds, which can easily go no bit. Um, if that happens, and I'm not saying it's going to, Trey, I'm just talking about things that make me cautious as an investor. Uh, if that happens, the potential for a 2008 style credit contraction is very, very real. Uh, one consequence of that is that I am more liquid than I otherwise would have been. uh if you have liquidity when other people don't uh you have the tools and perhaps you have the courage to take advantage of those circumstances rather than being taken advantage of.
>> Absolutely. And I I think you and I would both agree that Howard Marx is probably the godfather of credit at Oak Tree. And uh in reading some of his material, he says he's only called a few three or four bare markets in his life and that the trigger is always observing that people are doing stupid things. And you just brought up some of these recent credits. And I've even noticed uh a recurrence of the phrase pay in kind, which is is usually a a pretty pretty good signal that we're uh ending uh a cycle. And clearly, I think also folks are still calling this contain just like they were back, you know, in the GFC. But uh it'll be interesting to see how that transpires. And again, the importance here is that anyone expecting the Fed to be uh hiking rates here between now and the end of the year, I think is is on the wrong scent. Um, but getting back to the gold uh correction, you know, one of the things that's always fun when gold falls a few hundred bucks quickly uh is that uh everyone uh starts to speculate about what's happening, what's causing the gold price to decline. So it's it's and you read these impassioned articles. It's I wrote these down. Gulf countries needing to sell, sovereigns liquidating, credit markets melting, liquid positions being sold, margin calls, and then our favorite uh you know ubiquitous global dollar shortage. you know, these are but it has to be folks, you know, assume it has to be one of those or they will make the case that it's one of those. My response is, well, they're all certainly possibly contributing, but how about just a good old-fashioned correction? You know, if you look at the gold price, and I am not a technician, as I always say, unless it supports my case, but if you look at the gold price, it hung around the 50-day moving average, hung around the 100 day moving average, and then the overnight panic of March 22. Um, it literally touched the 200 day moving average. It was $3 away from it. Um, and here we are. I mean, am I over thinking this or not thinking hard enough about it? But how about just a correction? Do you
>> I think you hit the nail on the head. I mean, I I think as you suggest, all those are contributing factors.
>> The gold price went down because there was more sellers than buyers.
>> Think this through. That's pretty simple.
>> The upside rally probably exhausted itself. Uh meanwhile, gold fulfilled its role as the ultimate liquidity. those countries that needed liquidity, that had gold, were able to utilize their savings in gold and have liquidity. To me, that is evidence of the utility of gold uh and should strengthen the case for long-term holders of gold.
>> See, and I agree with you. People are concluding gold didn't perform as advertised. It's proven. And I think exactly the opposite. It has performed precisely as advertised. Do you agree?
>> I I agree completely. The last time I sold gold was in 2009.
>> Mhm.
>> Uh and did I sell too early? Yes, maybe. Uh unless you look at 2013, unless in which case 2009 feels pretty good. But I was happy that I had that liquidity. As a consequence of the 2008 crisis, there were some asset classes that seemed to me cheaper than gold.
>> Mh. I used the liquidity that I had as a consequence of being a gold bug since the year 2000. Uh, and I was able to acquire some assets that performed for me all the way till 2023 or 2024. Uh, and that's I think precisely what happened with regards to some nations. Turkey comes to mind.
>> Mhm.
>> Um, you know, if you border a country that is historically hostile to you, uh, two countries, frankly, uh, Israel and, uh, Iran, uh, and you're afraid of contagion, you might want to increase your defense spending.
>> There no market on a global basis for LRA bonds, zero. Uh, and what did the Turks do? They sold the asset class that they could still sell. This has real lessons for families.
>> And uh not to mention that the six tons in the week ended the 13th of March and the 52.4 in the following week were mostly swaps. So Turkey hasn't really sold the gold. Uh and I would bet that as we move out of this period, it's very likely that they'll unwind those swaps and repurchase the gold. But we'll we'll find out. They weren't there weren't a lot of there were almost no open market sales. Um
>> let's let's assume it was a straight sale,
>> right?
>> There was a buyer.
>> The who bemoone the fact that a trade took place forget that yes, there was a seller and yes, there was a buyer. And if it was a sale or a swap, in either case, what the companies did, what the countries did, I'm sorry, is they utilize gold precisely the way you should for liquidity.
>> Absolutely. And before we leave these general topics, I can't resist pointing out that in the last 48 hours, we're starting to see the gold has failed as a geopolitical uh hedge stories because we've now gotten to the point that last night in Trump's speech when people figured out, you know, the that the war was going to go on at least a few weeks longer than people were hoping, gold immediately fell $150. So now it's actually gotten to the reverse, right? If the war is going to go on, gold will go down. If the war will be wound down, gold will go up. Can you just give me your view on gold as a geopolitical hedge?
>> I don't think gold is a geopolitical hedge myself.
>> Exactly.
>> I think that people use politics as an excuse to do what they otherwise would have done for free.
Thought about this a lot, Trey. Uh I've been, as you know, a participant in the gold market since the early 70s. Sometimes right, sometimes wrong. What I've noticed about gold uh is that the real moves in gold are a consequence of faith or lack of faith in the maintenance of purchasing power of fiat currency denominated savings instruments and real afterinflation interest rates. Uh I believe that traders and public sentiment about gold can be impacted by other forms of fear, geopolitics or second order fears, which is to suggest that geopolitics erode the purchasing power of the US dollar, which is certainly a fear I shed I share. My own personal belief is that the war probably presents people who are skilled at trading opportunities. I'm not skilled, so I'm not taking advantage of them. But my underlying thesis, and we've shared this on your show numerous times, is that over the next nine or 10 years, the US dollar loses 75% of its purchasing power, while gold likely maintains its purchasing power. And there's the rub. If your savings are losing purchasing power at 8% compounded and you're getting 4.6 in the US 10ear Treasury, you're not making 4.6. you're losing 3.4 or some number like that. 2.4 3.4. Uh the consequence of that is that the fear of the deterioration of the purchasing power from fiat savings instruments would seem to be very very very well substantiated by simple arithmetic. Uh and I think that's the underlying factor that people need to consider when they think about gold's role in their portfolio.
Well, that was the perfect segue into uh the last part of our talk. And I think this is really important for wealthy on viewers who are looking for how to get involved at this stage in the cycle or increase their exposure. And that is uh by far the most enjoyable precious metal event of the year which is uh Rick's annual symposium now in Bokeh Ratan. And I believe it's the first week of July this year. Uh but Rick, can you give us an update on what we can expect from this year's gala and what you have in store for us?
>> Sure. Specifically July 6 through 10 as you suggest in Boca Raton, Florida, but for most people via live stream from the comfort and convenience of their own home. Uh first of all, the conference has gone on for about 30 years. Uh a conference has gone on for 30 years as a conference has met the test of time and ours has done that. Uh I would suspect it's the strongest high-netw worth retail uh resources investment symposium on the planet after 30 years. Why? Well, first of all, we bring big picture paradigm uh global macro to four uh but not in the way that CNBC or Fox did. Last year, our macro keynote speaker was David Stockman, who had been the director of the office of management and budget under Reagan, talking about why regonomics failed and talking about why doge would fail too. Uh he was a controversial speaker. It turned out to be that he was exactly exactly right. uh and paying attention to his advice uh for those people who did it either made or saved people an awful lot of money. We have Daniela D. Martino Booth uh talking uh about the failure of the Fed. It's not like she's a journalist. She was with the Fed. We have Nomi Prince talking about the corruption of Wall Street. She wasn't a Wall Street Journal reporter. She was a partner at Goldman Sachs. So our macro comes from the belly of the beast. Uh it's important to understand that after we do that we have analysts and portfolio managers who are not pup newsletter writers who made their reputation in the last 12 months of a bull market but rather the John Hathaways and the Adrien days and the Trey Reichs of the world uh who have existed in resource and precious metals capital markets for 30 or 40 years. Uh they have experience in the upside. They have experience in the downside. They can tell you what works. They can tell you what doesn't work. But it's important that these people are seasoned veterans from where the rubber meets the road in precious metals and natural resources. Every exhibitor, Trey, every public company exhibitor at our conference has been personally vetted by me. If they aren't owned in my portfolio, they don't exhibit on my floor. There's no guarantee, sadly, that because I own a stock, it goes up. But at every other conference I know, the qualification to be an exhibitor is a check that cashes. Uh believe me, uh we have much much much higher standards. If you're a bullion dealer or a coin dealer on my floor, I have to have had no consumer complaints about you in my 40 years in financial services. One consumer complaint and the exhibitor is off of my floor. uh do your own due diligence, but I will never willingly permit uh a vendor who abuses my audience to have access to my audience. We have a great feature, always a crowd-favorite, called the living legends, where we bring company builders who have built multibillion dollar natural resource companies from scratch, telling you how they did it, telling you how they invest, what they invest in now, and telling you most importantly how you can identify young entrepreneurs who have the ability to take a $25 million stock and make into a $5 billion stock. Uh, this has always been a crowd favorite and it deserves to be a crowd favorite. All of these things come together to allow me to make an extraordinary promise to customers. Uh, whether you attend the conference live or via live stream, you will have access to the tapes, the recordings, you'll need them because we're going to give you 46 hours of dense programming in four days, more than you can absorb. I have to play the recordings afterwards. But we have a more extraordinary promise uh which is if you you think for any reason whether you attended live or live stream that we didn't earn the money we charged you simply email us. We'll give the money back. I'm delighted to say uh in 30 years of money back guarantees we've had to refund about 10 oh pardon me onetenth of 1% of the tuitions that we charged. Ironically, last year uh we had 1,400 people who attended via liveream. We had three refund requests, but that refund request is a reflection of our confidence in the curriculum that we offer up and the information that we offer up. There's no other conference in the world that I know of that has a no questions asked, money back guarantee, but we do.
Last year you had how many in person and how many live stream?
>> We had uh in terms of in person I only count the ones who paid. I don't include the speakers, the employees, the exhibitors, any of them.
>> Last year we had uh about 500 paid live attendees. This year we'll have this year will sell out. This year we'll have about 700 live attendees. Last year we had 1,400 live stream attendees. Uh, our sales trends right now are pointing to about 3,000 live stream attendees this year.
And can someone still get a room at the inn or does
>> my suspicion is I I believe we have about 25 live tickets to sell remaining to sell. Those will go very very very fast.
>> Uh my understanding is that we have no more rooms at the hotel. Uh we have made a room block purchase at the adjacent Hyatt
>> uh and there's plenty of accommodation in Boca Raton. I would prefer that people were at the conference hotel simply because they can get the most out of the conference by doing that. But I believe we've sold out the room block. So any rooms anybody got now would be a would be a consequence of cancellations by existing attendees. And in terms of signing up for uh the virtual event, can you just walk me through uh how you can do that most easily because I think that's an option that a lot of our wealthy on viewers would be very interested in.
>> rules.com, but we'll forward you a link uh to a fix to this video that will allow people to click and go.
>> Got it.
>> Uh and by the way, we've worked very very very hard on the live stream. We've been doing it for four or five years now.
>> We have uh Paul Harris, ex of the mining journal, whose job is to curate the experience of the live stream attendee.
>> Uh our success is demonstrated by the fact that we had three refund requests out of 1400 starts.
>> Mhm.
>> Last year. That's truly an incredible response. I also need to say Trey that one of the things we do and I should have mentioned this earlier is before the conference I personally interview every exhibitor and every speaker uh and those are published uh at the rural investment media YouTube channel. The consequence of that is that you come to the conference uh prepared uh you know the exhibitors that you want to talk to, you know the speakers that you want to listen to. Uh it's important that you do that because we're going to work you so hard during the four days of the conference that if you aren't prepared, you aren't going to get out of it what you could get out of it. So it's important that you that you pay attention to the pre-conference interviews. There's no other conference in the world that I know of that's figured out that the way that you deal with the tyranny of time is that you ignore it. You expend the time available. Uh but we do uh anybody who comes to our conference if they are willing to do the work can come to the conference pre-prepared to allocate their time and their c their capital more wisely.
And I can uh attest to the recordings being available. I really wanted n uh uh Danielle's employment statistics. if you recall, she was the first really who caught up on the negative revisions in the census. Uh I forget the exact name of it, which comes about nine months late, but I was digging through her slides as well as Grant Williams and Nomi Prince. So, it's a great uh resource for uh information which I delved into several times over the last three months. Uh but anyway, looking forward to it and I uh know the whole Wealthon team is looking forward to it and I look forward to visiting with viewers and this year I hope from the stage to the audience. We're going to butt our way on the stage with you in some manner or fashion this year. But we look forward to it, Rick.
>> I look forward to it too. I I look forward to uh having Wealthon represented. I appreciate the efforts that Wealthon has made in investor education and I appreciate the fact that I have never heard a negative comment uh about Wealthon's bullion services in my 30 years in financial services. Um, there are an awful lot of coin and bullion dealers out there, literally hundreds. uh and the vast majority of them uh would receive a police escort out if they attempted to appear on our floor.
>> Yes, the gold silver franchise is one that all wealthy on viewers should take a peek at. And I will just point out that uh commissions and markups and those types of things are a fraction uh at gold silver of what they are uh at at at com at some competitors. So anyway,
>> at a conference we believe that markets work. Uh compare wealthy on to the other dealers that are present. Let the market work. Visit with multiple vendors and remind remember it's not all about fees. Uh it's about service. It's about building relationship. So in addition to asking the dealer what his or her spot quote on gold or silver is, ask about storage charges, ask about buyback, ask about afterale services, uh ask about notifications uh for future specials. It it's important I think in developing a fiduciary uh relationship with somebody who's assisting you in managing your savings that you develop a personal and commercial relationship.
>> Excellent. Well, I hope to catch up with you maybe one more time before the conference, but if not, we'll see you in Bokeh.
>> Trey, I look forward to it in either circumstance. Let's do both.
>> Thank you, sir.
>> Thank you.