Transcription
Hey everyone, hopefully you're having a good day. My name is Andy. My channel's finding value.
Today we're going to go through Twitter, see what people are sharing on our social media. I'll interject my financial opinions as we go through it together. Uh, it's generally related to three different topics: wealth building, commodities, and/or financial topics. Let's dive right in, take a look, see what's going on today.
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All right, Cycle Bottom says, "Industrial-based metals are firing up a true blue bull market, uh, commodities market in 2026. Is nickel breaking out?" And there's nickel. Yes, nickel is breaking out. Uh, in fact, we've already positioned in a nickel company. We can see that we've entered right there in the corner and there it is blowing higher. Uh, there are other investments in nickel that were moving up a little bit before this one, but this one here, uh, it's already alive and well and we are ripping. We've already entered it.
So when we look at these particular items here, I I see this a lot with a lot of people on Twitter. Someone will say, "Oh, oil, that's not a good investment." But the oil equities are going up. Oh, well, what about nickel? It's just starting to break out. The nickel equities are already going up. You're too late reading this information here. If you want to get in at the absolute prime location, you can't wait for prices to necessarily break out of the commodity because positioning has already occurred in the equities.
So, I see this a lot on Twitter here and I'm reading these things. I'm like, well, I'm already positioned. I'm already positioned. I'm already a position. Um, you have to position when smart money is buying. And you're not going to you're not going to get that by reading threads on Twitter. You get that by reading the charts, by understanding what is cheap. And then you kind of have to go out on a limb and say, you know what, I'm going to go buy a bunch of whatever equity before people realize that we're going to get a breakout. By the time the breakout occurs, more and more people have already positioned.
The markets are a game of chess. [clears throat] A bunch of people trying to position before other people. And the smart money just all stares at each other in a room, so to speak. I'm just giving you a hypothetical deal here. It's like we're all staring at each other and says, "Well, who's going to blink first? Who's who's going to buy first here?" And then someone's got to go first. They buy and then other people start to accumulate and then we create the pattern, the accumulation pattern, whether that be a double bottom, a falling wedge that breaks out, whatever the pattern is. To get on the precipice of that, you need to understand where these things squeeze up, where the dead periods are, all of those things. That's a lot of the stuff I do teach and show on on the website as well.
Just to give you as an example, uh, silver heading to $100 an ounce. Physical silver is trading for more than paper price all over the world. Dubai $95, Australia $93 an ounce, Canada $89, Russia $98. China is banning all exports on January 1st, 2026. Soon the paper price will go parabolic and we've got silver here at se uh $76 an ounce in the United States with these being higher. I don't why do people even care about the paper price? Who gives a crap?
Now check this out, guys. I've I've I've talked about this before. This is going out on a limb. If the paper price is not a physical representation or is not a representation of the physical silver price, why do people trade in it if it doesn't accurately represent the physical price of silver and it all it does is it's it's like a paper proxy and you can't exchange the paper proxy into physical. Couldn't there be a a permanent divergence [clears throat] where people reject the paper markets? The paper markets eventually go to zero and then the physical market breaks apart and goes way up.
Now, that is just something I'm bringing up because why would people trade the futures market if you can't exchange it for physical? If you can't exchange it for physical, then what is it a representation of? And if it doesn't price, if the price doesn't match the physical market, the papers market that is, why would anyone use it? And if no one's going to use it, wouldn't it eventually go to zero? Then that opens up the gateway for everyone else to question the paper market in its entirety and the pricing of everything in the paper markets. Catch my drift?
So, when when people would ask me, Andy, what do you think of this SLV ETF? I'd say, I don't want it because I don't know what it represents. What if all of those ETFs are an extension of the paper market and all it is is a reflection of what the paper market is? But if you can't exchange it to physical and the paper market implodes, then what exactly are you holding? Oh, don't worry. They they've got the physical behind it. Yeah, right. JP Morgan, doesn't JP Morgan run SLV, the ETF? Do you really think they've got physical silver backing that?
More than likely, this is my guess, and I have no basis for this guess, but here's my guess of what it is. They created ETFs as a paper I it's a way to absorb paper. So um they can get paper you know uh uh money comes towards buying fiscal metals it goes into SLV and it's a ETF an intangible ETF that absorbs paper in the markets. They may have metal that backs it, but what they do with that metal, it's a pool of metal that I think they're leasing out into the market to suppress the price. So, the very people who are investing in SLV ETF could be putting money into something that is suppressing the price with the pool of metal that it does have. So, I don't believe anything in that ETF. I do not trust it. I do not own it. Uh, I put I put everything in the physical, you know, realm, so to speak, and uh, I'm helping my own cause by taking metal out of the market. That's how I viewed it.
So, I look at all this and I just shake my head. It's like, you know, everyone talks about this every single day and I obviously I do, too, because that's what people are searching for. But, I mean, I just look at this like, good luck with the paper markets. These things are going to they're going to they're they're going to go down, I think, at some point. And then once that first thing goes, you know, once the first domino falls, the whole thing's in question. Is the gold market, paper market, okay? What if people start running at this stuff? I don't even know how they can be short as much metal as they are. None of it exists. It's just stupid. Like this whole paper game to me doesn't make much sense. Just seems really stupid. The whole thing.
Michael Gad says, "Uh, here's the silver chart. Most people never see. Multi-year deficits are not a coincidence. The uh, silver's been running a deficit for years." So, what happens is you start to run a deficit, you eat through inventories, they've got that stupid pool of silver that these ETFs have and whatever else they've got. They start to run out of that pool and then eventually those deficits eat into the pool. Manipulate into the inventory and then it just all dries up and then it's like, okay, what else are you going to use to manipulate this this price? There is nothing left.
So then the the games that they played historically, they played these games of putting in margin hikes. So the the paper price would go up, they put in margin hikes and then it would suppress the paper back down. It's a way to control the paper markets. The problem is the physical shortages are driving the move, not the paper market. So at some point, there is a possibility where we get this disconnect between physical price and paper price and that's when [clears throat] that's when in my, you know, I'm just guessing here, where you get this like permanent breakdown where the paper price doesn't actually represent the physical metal. Then people will be like, why am I in this to begin with? Like, what's the whole point of all this exactly?
Now here's another one. It says this never happened before. I've been analyzing this for the last six hours and this is very bad. World silver production is 800 million ounces. Bank of America and City, those two banks have shorts of 4.4 billion ounces. Now, how is this even possible? I don't even get it. It doesn't make sense in my brain. How can you be short all these years of metal, right? Years of production of metal. I've spent two decades in macro and I thought I'd seen it all. I was wrong. Here's what I uncovered. What you're looking at isn't just a large short position. It's a solvency event for the entire commodities complex. Yes, correct. Let's break down the technicals of why BFA being short 1 billion ounces and City being short 3.4 4 billion ounces is not just bad trading. It's a systemic disaster. And this is the supply demand disconnect. Global silver production is effectively capped at around it's low 800 million ounces per year. The combined short position of just two banks is 4.4 billion ounces. Do the math to cover these positions. These banks would need to buy every single ounce of silver mined out of the ground for the next five and a half years. No jewelry, no solar panels, no electronics, no coins. But here's the kicker. Industrial demand already consumes 60% of the annual supply. The free float of investment grade silver is tiny. They're they aren't shorting a market. They are shorting a phantom supply that does not exist. How is this even allowed? It's called unallocated accounts and rehypothecation. The bullion banks have likely leased the same physical bar of silver to 10, 20, maybe 50 different clients. They sold you silver exposure, took your cash, and used it to suppress the price on the COMEX. It works fine as long as everyone is happy holding paper. But the moment confidence breaks, the moment a whale like a sovereign wealth fund or a tech giant demands physical delivery, the game ends. Has this happened before? The answer is a hard no. People point to the Hunt brothers in 1980. That was child's play. The Hunts were trying to corner the market by buying physical. This is the opposite. This is institutional naked shorting on a scale that defies physics. The banks have sold five times the annual planetary output of a strategic metal. We are looking at a forced major event. When the squeeze starts, the COMEX will likely change the rules. They will switch to cash settlement only. They will tell you, "Sorry, we can't give you the silver we sold you. Here's the cash equivalent at yesterday's closing price." But the real price, the street price for actual physical metal will detach. We're about to see a bifurcation of the market. Paper price managed, suppressed, irrelevant. Physical price vertical. If you don't hold it, you don't own it. By the way, I've called every major market top and bottom for over 10 years. When I make my next move, I'll share here for everyone to see.
And he's talking about this guy here. So, that's what's going on with the with the physical versus the paper. And I I don't understand it, guys. And I don't really go too deep into the paper side of it. A lot of people, they'll talk about all these, you know, day-to-day events. I look at the big long term and I say they don't have the physical metal. Now, it's not even about they being the COMEX, they being the banks. I don't even care about that. When I go look at industry and I go look at the bond market and the paper markets, that money needs to switch into something that can preserve purchasing power. And if bonds and stocks do not work, you've got a butt ton of money wanting to rotate into something that does work. Here's the problem. It's too much money to be absorbed by the physical metals. [clears throat] We are finding out not just now. I mean, I found this out years and years ago that the physical metal is not represented by the paper markets. It doesn't exist. So when people, you know, they would ask me, well, what about this ETF? I don't want any of the ETF. There. All of those paper derivatives and all this crap I think will go away at some point. And the physical metal is what you want. That is the endgame, so to speak, is to acquire the physical. And if we have large deficits like we've seen going on up here, industry is going to panic. Industry is going to go directly to the mines to obtain physical deliveries. Just wait until people start to panic on top of it. Now we've got trillions of dollars all over running all over the place on this little, you know, group of metals where the price is massively distorted to the downside. So, we'll see what happens. [clears throat]
Here's another one from Tavi. He says a lot has been said about silver over the past 24 hours and he wants to offer a longer term perspective on a theme he's been following closely for years. Number one, bubbles in monetary metals don't form with tight supply and rising structural demand while the global fiat system is in crisis. Two, silver rarely moves in straight lines. Volatility is part of the process and should be embraced, not feared. Three, the low price metal environment of the past decade is unlikely to return. The inflation genie's out of the bottle and central banks lack the ability to put it back in. Number four, despite trading near prior nominal highs, silver remains materially undervalued in a world of fiscal dominance and a structurally weaker dollar. Let the dust settle and the hype fade. In a commodity bull market's leadership rotates, the game is far from over.
In his view, I am in the same uh camp. It's not about looking at this short-term price movement, guys. We're just starting this big move. I've showed you before with the 45-year cup and handle breaking, the increasing interest rate environment that we are now in, and then eventually this money is all going to start to rotate. And I think we're just at the beginning stages of the rotation. The reason silver is so, you know, so volatile and wants to blast higher, I think, is because they're jacking around in the paper markets now that the physical is basically all tightened up. They're they're screwed. They're screwed. And then people say, "Well, what do you mean by they're screwed?" They've got paper derivatives that are a representation of nothing. Nothing. What are they going to do? Screwed is what I'm going to say.
Here's another piece of information. It's not silver related, but no one wants defensive stocks. Global defensive stocks are now just 17% of world market cap, near the lowest since the 2000 dot com bubble burst. This percentage has fallen minus 7 points since the end of 2022 bare market. Put this differently. Consumer staples, healthcare, and utilities have materially underperformed the broader market over the last few years. Now, here's something I want to I I want to hit here. 2000. When was 2000? That was the bottom of the gold and silver bull market. Here it is. Bottom of the gold and silver bull market. You think it's some weird reason that we just blasted off in 2025 and even 2022 for gold? No. Gold's front running all this. It's seasoned. We have multiple cycles overlapping here. We've got this cycle overlapping with the debt problems of America, which overlaps with perhaps a supply problem in energy and a supply problem in multiple minerals is what I'll say there. Uh, silver plummeted approximately 9% today, the sharpest single-day drop in recent memory. [clears throat]
Oh, I already went over this one last time, so we don't have to go through this again. We'll end it there. That's what I've got for today, guys. Give me a thumb up for the content. Subscribe to the channel. Subscribe to the website if you like. Specials, the coupon code. Um, I cover basically all of commodities. So, that's precious metals and a bunch of different commodities. Iron ore, base metals, uh, aluminum, copper, silver, you know, the precious metals, energy. So, energy entails uranium, uh, coal, natural gas, and oil. Uh, and then I dive into other metals that, you know, tertiary metals I'll call like nickel, vanadium, whatever it is. If there's a good opportunity, it's got a good setup, a good chart pattern, it's undervalued, I'm in. Like, I'm going to be looking at it for potential investments. And if that's something you want to that you're interested in, definitely sign up uh and hit that up.
All right, guys. It's all I've got for today. See you.