Transcription
Hello, everybody. Welcome into Commodity Culture, where we break down commodities markets, sound money principles, and geopolitics. All with the goal of making you a better investor in the commodities sector.
My name is Jesse Day. Today is May 6, 2026, and I'm thrilled to welcome Shaun Fu to the program, an expert in the precious metals space, a financial analyst, and the host of the Sha Fu YouTube show.
Shawn believes that silver's strategic element is becoming more and more recognized by countries around the world, with nowhere being more apparent than China. He breaks down their export restrictions and recent record imports of the metal, along with diving into why he thinks silver is massively undervalued at these levels, how the war in Iran will affect the broader economy and precious metals prices, and why China could become the next global economic superpower. And you're going to want to stick around to the end of the interview, where Shawn reveals areas of the market he's seeing opportunity in right now.
Also, strap yourselves in for my conversation with Sha Fu.
Sean Fu, it is great to have you on Commodity Culture. I want to kick things off by discussing the silver market, because you said recently on your show that the biggest driver of the silver price is China. Could you break that down for us, and with all the crazy volatility that silver has been presenting, how do you see it performing for the remainder of 2026 and beyond?
>> Yeah, sure. I think we all remember the big rise in silver prices in 225. It went from around $45 all the way to $110 or $120 at the peak. So, that's an incredible rise of 100 to 150%. So, the big correction that we saw, dropping all the way down to $75 to $80, now it's more or less completely natural.
But going forward, I think silver has more than just a monetary application to it. Like a lot of us here, we are stackers; we buy silver, silver bars, silver coins as part of our diversification efforts, right? But in the long scheme of things, we are moving more towards an electrified future: a future of EVs, a future of more solar panels.
And what just happened over the last 60 days, 70 days, especially with the warn Iran, it just cemented this idea. Now, we have to really talk a bit about the warn Iran first. Now, what we have what we have seen is at enormous supply disruption of anywhere between 12 to 20 million barrels a day of oil. Now, that's around 20% of global oil consumption. That's amount that's a huge amount of energy that's lost.
Now, a lot of countries, they depend on energy for the Middle East, right? I'm sure, as you're based in Japan, you know that 80 to 90% of Japan's energy gets imported in, and most of them are from the Middle Eastern countries, especially natural gas. They get supplies from Qatar. Now, all these countries around the world are starting to ask themselves a very big question: We have no idea when this supply shortage will end. It could end tomorrow. It could end in three years. We frankly do not know. And going forward, are we going to be so exposed to just fossil fuels, be it oil, be it gas? Chances are, they are not going to take that bad.
That's why over the last 30 days, over the last two months, we are seeing a lot of Chinese exports, when it comes to EVs, when it comes to solar panels—especially solar panels—just fly through the moon. Countries around the world, whether it's Australia, whether it's Japan, whether it's Asia, whether it's Europe or Africa, they're all buying in cheap solar panels from China.
And this actually makes the silver story very, very compelling, because one of the major components, as we all know, in silver in solar panels is silver. So, in a solar panel, it takes anywhere from 15 g all the way to one whole ounce in order to power it. And there's a lot of talks of, you know, you can use cheaper components, but in order to attain the long-term efficiency, you still need silver.
So, when it comes to the price of silver going forward, we need to really ask ourselves: how long do we see the Iran war going forward, and how much of a supply disruption shock is the world willing to tolerate? As of now, I don't think we are going they're going to actually risk a very big supply shortage going forward. So, they are moving towards renewables, and that's good for China, that's good for solar panels, that's good for renewable energy, and especially that's good for silver. There's going to be a nice bid in the months and the years to come.
So, what do you think is behind China's move to restrict silver exports starting at the beginning of 2026? And also, in March, they imported the largest amount of silver ever in a single month, that was reported by Bloomberg. Is that all related to solar panel construction? Is there a monetary aspect to it from the Chinese government's perspective? What are your thoughts there?
>> Well, I think it's a mixture of both. As for the monetary aspect, well, it's indisputable that gold holds more value in a much smaller amount of metal, right? So, for most central banks around the world, they prefer gold because it's easy to move, much easier to move, much easier to hold value in it. So, I guess the idea for China labeling silver as a critical mineral, critical metal, it's more towards the industrial applications, and regardless of which, it's still good for silver.
Now, I think we can all see the amount of US sanctions that's been imposed, not just during the Trump era. It started long before that, you know, during Trump 1.0, and especially during the Biden era. So, what we have seen is during the Joe Biden's era, they started imposing brutal semiconductor curbs on China, you know, trying to prevent them for getting the latest machines, trying to restrict chipmakers not just in the US, but around the world, including Japan's Tokyo Electron, including Netherlands ASML.
So, China is really, really freaked out at this point of time, and they saw it coming. So, even before the war in Iran, they started ringing fencing all their silver exports to the rest of the world. They started buying in more into China to such a point that, if I'm not wrong, there was a point where despite the price of silver globally being high, premiums in Shanghai, premiums in China, were actually 5 to 15% more. The Chinese, they were buying much more in than what they were selling out.
So, I would say it's more of a ring fencing of the entire silver complex. They want to build up their stockpiles. So, in such an event where China faces the US in another commodity clash, whether it's another trade war, or we could even see unthinkable things like the street of Ma getting blockaded by the US military. So, China just wants a safe stockpile of silver for them to run their industries, whether that is solar power solar panels, whether that's EVs. I guess it's more of national security for them.
Yeah, great summary. And with all of this information we've discussed when it comes to silver specifically—you know, its use, it's vital for military tech as well, electronics, medicine, all of the things you've outlined—do you think it's undervalued at these levels?
Obviously, we saw silver go on a parabolic run up to around $120 at its peak. Now, interestingly, the last two times silver hit all-time highs, in 1980 and 2011, it came back down on the other side fairly rapidly. We haven't seen that yet. We've seen kind of a pretty severe drop, a 26% correction in one day at one point, and then a consolidation. It's taken a bit of a hit since the warrant started, starting to recover. How do you see it performing? Do you think it's undervalued here?
>> I think the long-term trajectory of silver is still upwards. It's definitely still undervalued, but I mean, if you're looking for another 100%, another 200% spike within a year, within a few months, I think that's going to be a really tough sale.
Now, for the long-term trajectory, I think we have to understand the difference between the 1980s, 1970s—the big spike up—and what we have now. I think the big spike up, why it wasn't sustainable during that point of time, was because we had two brothers, the Han brothers, basically try to corner the silver market. And if we look at the grand scheme of things now, it's much different. The Han brothers, sure billions, but it's only billions. There's only so much you can push up the price of silver before realistically it collapses. There's no sustained demand during that point of time.
You know, 1980s, 1970s, no one was talking about solar panels, right? No one even knew what was electric vehicle. No one even knew what was the EV. It was akin to flying cars. But right now, the whole landscape is different. Countries around the world, they need silver for semiconductors. They need silver for EVs. They need silvers for solar panels. And we have China and the US both ring-fencing silver, labeling them as critical minerals. So now, you have a bit of hundreds of billions of dollars flowing to silver, which will only go up over time.
Now, I think it's quite dangerous to say silver could suddenly spike by 50 to 100%. But as of now, given the long-term trajectory, it's quite undervalued.
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And now, back to the interview.
Well, let's turn to gold now, because of course, we've seen major central bank accumulation since the US and its allies froze Russia's FX reserves. Gold surpassing the euro in 2025 as a reserve asset globally. The BRICS unit, backed 40% by gold, has entered its pilot phase, and there's many other signs, of course, that gold's monetary role is becoming more recognized. Which trends are you most watching when it comes to the potential remonetization of gold?
>> I think there are two big trends we have to keep in mind, which are both, I would say, equally important.
Now, the first trend, as you mentioned, is central banks buying gold. Now, it's quite interesting to remember after Biden and the G7 started to seize Russian assets, I think it was around March to May 2022, during that time period. Now, what happened immediately in the next 6 months to a year was gold buying by the central banks, whether it's through official channels, whether that's through the back market OTC markets; it climbed by around 300 to 400%.
The jump was tremendous because everyone knew that, hey, if I hold paper assets within the financial system, it doesn't matter if it's held in, you know, the Federal Reserve, whether it's held in New York, whether it's held in Europe, it's always perview to confiscation. No one right now, even today, is going to, you know, especially when the G7, you're going to blatantly deny US sanctions, you're still within the dollar structure. So, a lot of countries, they're starting to buy it as a form of diversification, as a hedge, because honestly, this is the only way of protesting against US sanctions. You know, you're not going to send a warship to Washington. You're not going to scold them on a global stage, and even if you do, they don't care. So, the only thing you can do is to protect your own economy by securing your reserves. And the most effective way to do to do it is to buy gold. So, that is on the central bank's perview, right? You know, whatever gold has been sold over the last two months by countries like Turkey in order to raise dollars to buy oil. On the flip side, we can see the Chinese central bank buying it. So, there's more or less always going to be a constant bit for gold.
Now, the other aspect to kind of look at is the debasement of the dollar, as well as the US fiscal position. And I would argue that it's actually even more disastrous, even more serious, when it comes to the entire price of gold versus the central banks, because that is going to be the main catalyst.
Now, I think we can all remember the big claims from the Trump administration: how US tariffs are going to drop the deficit, right? You know, there's been big claims about that, and tariff income went from $10 billion a month all the way to 30 to 40 billion. I remember Scott Besson probably posting his nice little charts on Twitter, right? We can all see the trajectory go up. But what have we seen over the last seven, over the last three weeks to three months? They are starting to give tariff refunds, and the refunds is from 50 all the way to 150 billion. So, the tariff war, in effect, is starting to collapse.
Now, at the same time, on the backdrop of this, we are seeing amazing amounts of tax refunds to American people. The Trump accounts, where they're going to eject $1,000 per baby, and all this is good for the American people, but when it comes to the global community, what they are seeing is that the reserves of dollars getting debased, right? You're diluting the entire stockpile of dollars sloshing around the world. So, no one is really happy about that.
And secondly, the war on Iran is adding more deficits to the entire US national debt and raising the deficit as well. So, we are talking about a total count of at least 30 to 50 billion so far, and the war is not ending anytime soon. And by the time the war does and we're probably looking at hundred billion or $200 billion to boot. So, I guess US fiscal imprudence is going to be one of the biggest drivers of countries moving to gold, and why the price of gold, it might have corrected a little bit, but it's going to go much higher in the years to come.
I'd love to dive a little more into the war in Iran and its potential implications for the global economy. Because this is something you discuss a lot on your show.
Obviously, it's been pretty crazy recently with a lot of on-again, off-again peace talks. The Trump administration threatening Iran a lot, and attacks, counterattacks. We're in a bit of a lull at the moment, but it looks like things could pick up again. We've heard reports of some ships being attacked in the Straight of Hormuse. And it's developing so rapidly that, you know, every time you log onto social media, something new is out there. Sometimes it's false, sometimes it's true. It's very difficult to follow.
I'm wondering what your thoughts are, having followed it closely, on the trajectory of this war. Do you expect it to drag on for a longer period of time, and what are the implications more broadly for the global economy at this point?
>> I believe it is going to drag on for quite a while longer, because both sides, they have really maximalist demands, and we have to look through both lens of what they want.
Now, obviously, Trump's war on Iran is, on the surface, about preventing them from getting nuclear weapons, right? That is the narrative being spun around. And we have destroyed the facilities one day, but they still have the ability to create nuclear weapons again. And, you know, the JCPOA, the deal by Obama, has been ripped to shreds. But does Trump want to go back to it or not? So, the administration in Washington themselves are quite confused of what they.
Now, on Iran, they have looked at a lot of their friends, a lot of their allies, or maybe adversaries within the Middle East as well. You know, countries like Libya, you know, Iraq. They've seen what has happened to countries that, well, to put it bluntly, dropped their nuclear ambitions, right? You know, it's quite funny that we don't really see a lot of threats from the US locked at North Korea today for obvious reasons. So, Iran is not going to let go of their nuclear ambitions without solid guarantees. And these guarantees can't just be given by the US. It has to be, you know, backed up by major powers around the world. We are talking about Russia. We are talking about China to come into really mediate something. So, if the US, you know, diges the deal four years down under a new president, the other two powers can come and enforce it somehow.
So, we are now at a stalemate where the US doesn't want that. They want the Iranians to give up completely. However, Iran doesn't want to give up their leverage over hormones, over promising that their nuclear ambitions are done. And when you have this such a big hazm of expectations, is it going to be totally impossible to bridge it unless Iran's economy totally collapses, or the US enters a very big severe recession and people on the streets, they start demanding for the war to end? And unfortunately, it looks like we are moving towards one of these outcomes going forward. And frankly, we do not know, because both sides, they're trying to portray the best picture out there. And can you really believe what Trump post on Twitter every single day? You can't.
Now, the implications for the global economy is quite horrendous. So, we are in day 65 or day 66 of this entire energy shortage going on. So, I'm sure we can all remember what happened in Japan over the last two days. They decided to intervene in their currency. Now, why is that the case? Because Japan realizes that their energy bills are going to go much higher over much more sustained period of time, and their currency is collapsing against the US dollar as well. And if I'm not wrong, they spend at least 20 to 30 billion in order to manage the currency. They sold dollars in order for the yen to go up.
Now, you can just imagine this whole idea getting magnified throughout the global economy if the energy crisis gets bad enough. Now, a lot of countries around the world, they are sitting on a ton of dollar reserves, and they are called reserves for a reason, right? You sell your reserves when there's a rainy day, when there's a crisis. Now, we are in a rainy day, we in a thunderstorm. We are in a crisis right now. And the longer this goes on, the US dollar will be under tremendous pressure to get sold down even further. Right? A lot of treasuries in the world could get dumped. A lot of dollars on hand could get sold. So, the implications is not good for the world. It's even worse for the dollar and the United States going forward.
Well, a lot of people expected gold and silver to rise when the war kicked off, but it's been quite the opposite. We saw both metals sell off in the aftermath. We also saw a strange effect where whenever Trump would tweet about peace potentially being reached, gold and silver would start going back up, and then when it became apparent that it wasn't true or that peace talks were off, gold and silver would drop again.
Now, I've spoken to some analysts who say actually, in times of war, precious metals do tend to sell off. How a lot of people were expecting more geopolitical chaos means gold, a safe haven asset, should catch a bid. What are your thoughts here? And if this war continues on for a longer period of time, do you expect this trend to reverse and gold to silver to perhaps perform to the upside instead?
>> I think what we are seeing right now is a classic liquidity squeeze, right? A lot of countries, they're worried about how much cash they have on hand in order to acquire their energy supply. You know, there's a reason why countries like Turkey, they were selling off their gold reserves. I'm sure they didn't want to, but honestly, they don't really have a choice, right? Gold is a form of reserves in order to sell to get dollars, and global oil prices are still—I mean, global oil supply is still—priced in dollars.
So, right now, countries, they believe that holding cash on hand is more important than just stacking gold, which, you know, in a certain perspective, if you're a government official, that kind of makes sense. You don't suddenly want to see your currency collapse at the same time, right? There's more domestic problem than just holding gold in the reserves.
But going forward, this war is going to add even more pressure, upwards pressure, for the price of gold and price of silver going forward. Now, let's just recall back to the good old days of 2020, 2021, when the US decided to print trillions of dollars into the system in order to save the world from the pandemic, the global collapse. The United States, they printed anywhere from—I should know this number, but I don't—I think they printed four to seven trillion dollars more into the entire system in entirety.
Now, during the entire two to three years after the printing, you can take a look at charts: gold prices didn't really move much. It went up by 10%, maybe 20% at most, right? But after a certain period, the amount of the price of gold started to go up quite a bit. Then came the next shock when the sanctions were hammered onto Russia. The price of gold also stayed kind of bit stagnant for the next 6 months to 12 months before it started rising much higher.
So, what we have today is a bit of a lag effect, and this lag effect is going to manifest itself down the road. It could be 6 months from now. It could be 12 months. It could be 89 months from now. Like when I see the price of gold dropping, is actually a bit of a discount going forward for people who are looking to buy, people looking to, you know, diversify away from the traditional stocks and, god forbid, bonds. Take it.
You know, the gold is now at a discount because when we look at trajectory going forward, we are looking at US deficits getting crazier and crazier. We're looking at more countries getting sick and tired of sanctions and looking to ring-fence their reserves away from Washington's purview. And we're looking at sanctions being imposed on literally anything in the world. You know, you can now impose them on ships. You can now impose them on oil refineries. You can even confiscate, you know, Iranian cryptocurrency through intermediaries. So, as long as you hold an asset that is within the system and is not as analog as gold, you run the risk of confiscations. And that's why, from all angles, the price of gold over time is going to go higher.
Do you see China as potentially the next economic superpower? Because there's been some talk, certain analysts saying that the war in Iran is actually a big part of that, is about stopping China from getting energy from Iran.
Now, we've also seen recent US sanctions against Chinese oil refineries that are said to be, you know, have imported Iranian oil, which is completely insane. I attack a country unprovoked, and then I sanction somebody buying energy from that country because that's immoral and that's evil, even though I'm the one that started the war. We're living in George Orwell's 1984 at this point.
But do you think that the US sees China's economic growth as a threat? Is that part of the reason behind this war? And do you think China is on track to potentially overtake the US as the next global economic superpower?
>> I would say, most definitely. He has always been a threat to Washington for many decades, for many years now. You know, the rise of China means, obviously, there's another superpower going up, and the US will lose quite a bit of the global hegeimon status going forward.
Now, the issue with China taking over as superpower, well, it first has to match the US, and is really dangerously close to doing so. In multiple fields, China is already ahead of the US. Whether that's robotics, whether that's manufacturing, especially in solar panels, especially in EVs, China is already well ahead of the US.
And that's why we are seeing a lot of moves by Trump and even by his administration, outwardly saying that we are doing this. We are securing the Western Hemisphere. We went into Venezuela, for example, in order to deny China access to the region. You know, it has been said through multiple interviews that right now, it's undeniable. And the same thing for Iran as well. We had, if I'm not wrong, Besson going on TV, saying that, "Oh, we are going to deny China the oil from Iran, and it's good for the US economy as well."
Now, this might seem to be a worthwhile strategy, but it's only going to be a short-term strategy, because what we are looking at after effects is China wrapping up all other forms of their own power buildout, whether that's nuclear, solar, hydrothermal, and other renewable forms. They're starting to sign more power deals with Russia as well. They're now building a new pipeline that's going to pump in billions of cubic meters of gas every month.
So, things are starting to backfire in real time, and as a consequence of this war, we are seeing something really interesting shift within the global capital markets as well. I think everyone here, especially your audience, knows the idea of the dollar being the safe haven, right? You know, if there's any crisis in the world, whether that's a tsunami hitting, whether that's a global war, whether that is a financial crisis, the knee-jerk reaction of investors, of central banks, of governments, is to run to US dollars and, as a byproduct, run to US treasuries. But we are not really seeing that today.
Now, if you look at a chart from the start of the year to what we have right now, the dollar is actually down by maybe half a percent or 1%. So, where has a safe haven bit gone to? It's like the entire Iran war has, if you're just looking at the dollar by itself, it looks like the Iran war has not even happened at all, because the entire narrative of how the US is managing their own economy is overriding whatever global perception there is of the dollar, and China's taking advantage of it.
And that's why a lot of money has been flowing to Chinese R&B debt. A lot of money is flowing into Chinese stocks, and I don't really see that stopping until, you know, the war ends and Washington really gets the entire spending under control. But even that is going to be a stretch.
I want to talk about the collapse of the fiat currency system, because this comes up a lot on the show. Opinions vary from different guests, all the way from "we're nearing the endgame now, the system's on its last legs" to the opinion that it can go on for far longer than people realize, perhaps decades, perhaps even in our lifetimes. We will not see the fiat currency system collapse and any new system emerge.
Where do you stand? Could this system be under major stress? Do you think the can will get kicked down the road for years or decades to come? And ultimately, what could be the alternative at this point?
>> Well, I think there are two ways to think about it, and talking about fiat currency versus hard currency, for example. I guess we're talking about gold and silver. I think the fiat currency regime, more or less, will always exist to a certain point, right? To a certain degree, maybe even to a large degree.
Well, firstly, it's because of convenience. Trying to transact, you know, gold and silver coins overseas is going to be very inefficient, especially when it comes when you can just, you know, key in electronic digits. You can settle trade within microseconds through all the established systems right now, and I don't think, you know, tokenized gold is going to go as far as some people claim. So, when it comes to the idea of fiat currencies just disappearing, I don't think that's going to happen.
But it's just going to be used for settlements. It's going to be used for trade. It's going to be used for convenience. That actually doesn't take away from gold and silver and other hard currencies or hard assets rising in value. And once we really understand the distinction between these two, I think there's no really conflicting ideas about it.
So, will fiat currencies exist for years, decades to come? Yeah, I still think it will, but holding on to it, and holding on, for example, bonds, is also a long-term is going to be a suckers bet as well.
Because if you think about it, right, if the government is borrowing from you at 4%, obviously the money is being channeled elsewhere with it, where they believe that it can get more than 4%. Because why would they be borrowing from you at 4%?
So, the idea that we should have is to look forward ahead of what government's borrowing and try to angle ourselves to, you know, more productive assets going forward.
>> Well, that's a great segue into the final question here, which is: given that everything we've discussed so far, outside of physical gold and silver, what are the areas that you're looking at that you think present an attractive value proposition in markets today? Gold and silver miners, just throwing that out there. I wonder if you have any thoughts there. Or do you think this is a time to be sitting on cash and focus more on capital preservation as opposed to booking profits?
>> Well, interestingly enough, I think we need to do all three, right? There's there's we always should have a healthy buffer of cash, because as much as we all want assets to go much higher, the reality is all assets right now—you know, maybe save for gold and silver—are at very high valuations. You know, the US stock market is extremely high. Global stock markets are still extremely high as well. So, having some cash buffer, whatever the percentage is for you, is always a necessity, right? Whether that's for your daily essentials, whether that it's dry power to buy into the markets if a collapse happens, it's highly necessary.
Now, on the second hand, having gold and silver on hand and buying it as well is quite important, right? I'm not so sure about you, but when I saw the price of gold started to rise from 2008 8, all the way to 504. There were many periods of time that I almost couldn't pull the trigger myself. There was always this hope and dream of goals crashing back down to 2,000, crashing back to 3,000, and it hasn't happened yet. And when the price suddenly disconnects from the fantasy to the real to the reality where prices go much higher, it could go up much faster than we all expect. So, having a buying plan, having an idea of, 'Yes, I recognize gold and silver is true money,' getting more of it consistently into my hands. I think that's a very important discipline for everyone.
And finally, if you look at all the geopolitics going out there, some regions seem to be more attractive than others, right? You know, the US markets, they will always have a constant bid of some sort, because they still have the deepest markets, and a lot of institutions around the world, they hooked onto the dollar system. So, the S&P rising by 5 to 10% for the next decade also wouldn't really shock me, but are there better opportunities out there?
China is one example where there's a very good risk to reward potential. Prices are still low, and if China manages to get an edge above the US, and if the US keeps making mistakes as they are, Chinese equities, well, they're going to rise quite high as well.
And if we look on the flip side, for example, countries like Brazil, the stock market has been doing extremely well over the last 6 to 12 months. If I'm not wrong, it is up by 50-60%. Which is quite amazing, because, right, because between the US and China, there's now a battle for the soul of Latin America. Somehow, it's a very resource-rich country. China wants their supply chains over there, so they're going to pour in more money over there as well. The US, apart from military actions, they're also trying their best to get the countries to commit to US investments as well. So, as a result, South American countries, maybe Brazil, even Argentina, all these countries, the stock markets are going to do quite well going forward.
>> Sure. I'm just on YouTube, so you can just go to youtube.com/shanuold. Shanfu Gold. This is where we cover quite a bit of geopolitics, macroeconomics. We cover gold and silver as well. We try to give you guys the daily brief of what's really going on in the world and how it really affects your day-to-day life in a very simple and short 13 to 15 minute clips.
Yeah, I love your channel. I watch it frequently. So, I recommend people tune in. You break down pretty complex topics in very understandable terms, as you've done in this interview today. So, very much appreciate you coming on the show, Sean.
>> Hey, no problem, Jesse. Anytime.
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