Transcription
[music] Hey folks, welcome to verified investing.com. My name is Gareth Soloway, chief market strategist here. And in today's video, we're going to deep dive into some major cycle analysis and reveals on Bitcoin.
Now, we're going to start with the short term on Bitcoin. We're going to look at where we currently are. Is there still short-term upside in the price of Bitcoin, or are we about to collapse and make new lows? But after that, we're going to zoom out on the chart looking at the key cycles and what I have found in my analysis.
Now, before we do that, just a reminder, folks, you have Gareth's Top Squad right here. This is my membership right here on my YouTube channel. $9.99 a month, super cheap. But the point is, it's your way of supporting me. And then also, what I'm going to do is I'm going to start moving from one to two free videos for premium members to two to three videos. Plus, you'll still get that weekly mega discount for something on verified investing. Every week, there's a new coupon code for some discount on verified investing. And what I'm going to do is I'm going to start to reduce slightly the amount of videos that I do for free on YouTube, just because I do have a lot of paying members and I want to make sure they are getting their value. And listen, it's 10 bucks a month, folks. I purposely priced it that low. Even the discount alone, if you use one discount like every couple months, it covers the cost of $10 and then some. And if you use it for a course, holy cow. I mean, on the Winning Trader Series, you know, you can get a discount of $5,000. I mean, it's pretty incredible. So, in any case, just a heads up on that front.
Let's get into the charts. We're going to start with Bitcoin right here. Now, Bitcoin has been struggling. We've seen a resurgence in the semiconductor trade, which is something I called for. I went long. I told you guys in my last video yesterday and the day before, I was buying semis like crazy, and that paid out amazingly well, like incredibly well. Yesterday, members of Smart Money Stocks and ETFs, we made over $100,000 in the portfolio, which, by the way, full transparency, members of Verified Investing see the portfolio, what I'm holding. They get alerts when I buy and sell. They see the real-time P&L. It's pretty darn cool.
In any case, Bitcoin has stalled. The chart on Bitcoin is still somewhat short-term bullish. Okay. Well, what do we mean by that? Well, you still have this general pattern here. We have this move down, then this bigger move down, and then we're still kind of making this awkward shoulder over here. Or what I like to look at when I see this is, to me, it looks a little bit more like a cup and handle pattern. So, for me, this is still net bullish in the near-term. And please understand when I say near-term, I mean like over the next two to three weeks. All right? Not over the next multiple months. My near-term is very near-term. Mid-term is usually multiple months. Long-term would be like 6 to 12 months for me. That's the extent of what I am as a swing trader.
Now, we still have that structure, but I am monitoring this trend line right here. So, if we take this trend line, what we can do is we can connect it almost perfectly to every pivot low along here. And what that does is it gives me a base point to know if this structure fails, right? So, the biggest thing for investors and traders is to number one, understand that you could have a great setup, it doesn't mean it's going to work out. Setups fail. We live in a world of probabilities, and so the probabilities favor, but probabilities by default, there it's not, you're never going to get 100%. And so you have to know where that is going to fail, like where do the probabilities start to shift? And that's what this trend line does right here. It gives us a very firm level, basically $63,000, that if we were to start trading down here, I would be very concerned we're going to go reattack the recent lows on Bitcoin and potentially go even lower.
Now, on the other side, the question would be, is okay, well, what's the trigger for a bigger breakout? Like, where do we need to take out to get that push to Gareth's $71 to $72,000 price target in the near-term? And that's really easy to see here, folks. You can see you have this pivot high right over here, which is exactly where we went up to right here. All right. So, essentially, what we're creating is a descending or ascending trend line with a horizontal trend line, and price, as of now, is staying in between this zone. And what we're looking for is, does it break out? If it breaks out, we got a $71 to $72,000 price target. That's a near-term price target. That doesn't mean it can't break that. That's just where you would expect resistance. And then to the downside, if it breaks basically $63,000, you likely head back to your lows at $57,800, possibly even lower. All right.
So, that's just a simple rundown of where we are. The bias again, aka probabilities, is still bullish on Bitcoin. But again, we're trading in this tightening range, an ascending trend line underneath, which right now, if $57,000 broke, that would cancel out the bullishness. The probabilities would switch to 50/50 or even possibly negative. And then on the other side, the slight negative, uh, a slight positive bias. We're at about a 60% bullish bias. If we break above $67,000, that is where we get the bigger push, where probabilities would quickly jump to like 75, 80% that we're going to zoom up to $71 to $72,000. All right.
So, again, real traders look at things in terms of probabilities. All right. Sometimes charts are are kind of in this slight positive or slight negative zone, and you just have to accept that. That's part of the deal. The traders or investors that are like, all in on one side or the other, they're the ones that go this way to zero in their portfolio. Smart investing understands levels and they understand key breakpoints that invalidate things or change probabilities or things that validate or raise the probabilities of success. All right.
Now, what we're going to do is look back at the chart of Bitcoin and we're going to go to a bigger time frame. And what we're going to do here is we're going to zoom all the way out. So, what we have here is 2017 bull market high, 2021 bull market high, 2025 bull market high. Now, remember, in in October of 2025, I was able to call the top on Bitcoin by using this trend line. Simple trend line. I didn't reinvent the wheel. I didn't do calculus, man. I can't even remember how to do that. I was not even that great back when I learned it back way long ago now, 20, 30, 30 years ago. I don't know. Anyways, the point is, is that trend lines are easy ways to tell where resistance and support is if you know how to draw them, which is a lot of times just connecting major pivot highs or pivot lows. All right.
But here we have it. Now, one of the things I was looking at is I was looking at the different structure. Each bull market high has had a different structure to it. So, for instance, this structure is fascinating. This is very all gold in 2026, right? So, what do we mean by that? Well, you have this sharp move up, then you have the big correction, then it chops here and eventually breaks down. It's very actually silverish. This is almost identical to silver. In fact, if we just quickly look at this, and I didn't mean for this to be a silver video. If we look at this, look, you have the big move up, big collapse, then it hammers, hammers, and then it breaks down, right? So, very similar in that way.
Now, if we look at the other cycles here, we can see this was a different cycle. This was a double top cycle. You had a big push, correction, big push, and then the bare market. And then this cycle has actually been a different one, too, which is fascinating. This is what we would call a head and shoulder cycle high. Shoulder, head, and shoulder. Okay. So, I just think that's fascinating. Regardless of, you know, it's just it, number one, it shows you that there's different cycles involved. Cycles can have different types of of of highs, but in general, it's driven by different types of sentiment. And honestly, a lot of it has to do with how much institutional action is is in the trade at that time as well.
But one of the things I was looking at is I was saying to myself, okay, well, how many candles from the high until we essentially bottomed out for the cycle? And this was 53 bars, right? Until we hear. Now, it's not like we ripped up, right? I mean, you kind of went sideways for even longer, but the bottom was about 53 weeks long. So, essentially a year long, right? 52 weeks is a year. Now, from this high, how long until we bottomed out? Well, lo and behold, 53 bars. Now, isn't that fascinating? Okay. So, that is really intriguing. So, while each bull market cycle in Bitcoin was slightly different in formation, all all topping signals though, I mean, you had the M-TOP double top in 2021, the head and shoulders here in 2025. We had this blowoff top, um, ala, you know, silverish type thing in 2017. But notice how each bare market is essentially the same distance.
Now, what does that tell us about where we currently are? Are we at a cycle low? And the answer is, to the low, 38 bars. Even if we go to here, we're only at 42, which tells me there's at least 10 to 12 more weeks of risk of further downside. In addition, one of the things that is concerning, and I'll end on this, guys, is that even though I'm near-term bullish, and remember, a good trader can trade multiple time frames. And so, I've been long and short bit. I was majorly short at the highs on Bitcoin at the bull market high. And then I've gone long multiple times on this down move and made money. Okay? In fact, each time I've made money. It doesn't mean that I think the downside's over. The downside is honestly, I don't think it's over.
And I'll and I'll I'll lastly simply just put it to you this way. Here's your cycle high. How many weeks are we at? We're at 42. What does that tell us? We could go out to let's say 53. That would take us out to October of this year, which is interesting because it's right before the midterm elections. And the question is, is you have a head and shoulder pattern that is still valid, right? Uh, here's your head and shoulder tool. We have shoulder, head, right? Shoulder, and then you had your breakdown. Right now, to do the calculation, and this is kind of scary, and I don't, this is where it gets tricky. Does it play out to target? If it does, you draw it from the highest point to the to the neckline. Right? So, highest point to neckline. This is the neckline, the dotted line. And from wherever you break, that is your downside. And if this is correct, there is another big flush coming at some point on Bitcoin, possibly to $35,000. And that could be, I mean, if we think about it, if that's correct, that takes us out to October, right? Remember what we just looked at? We looked at if it matches the distance, then it would be by October, we hit about that $35. And I got to put it up to where it's at $35,000 here. There we go. We we hit $35-ish,000 by October.
Again, is it going to work out? No one really knows. But this is the best tool in my tool belt for trying to figure out where do I really load the boat. Now, listen. Will I wait till $35,000 to buy any Bitcoin? No. Because sometimes targets don't hit. And that's okay. Things can change. Charts can change. But for me, I'm probably waiting below $50,000 before I start nibbling on Bitcoin. Now, do I have a little Bitcoin set aside? Yes. I'm I I have my portfolio diversified. I've got gold, I got silver, I got Bitcoin, I got some some stocks, not much, but they're more defensive names because again, except for swing trading where I was long semis here, we just crushed it. But you guys get my drift here. All right.
Lastly, I do want to mention guys that again, and this is this is the key, and do my do me a favor and show them support because again, to be a sponsor of this show, that means a lot. Just like if you're part of Gareth's Top Squad, that means a lot to me. If you're commenting and writing kind words, that's that's amazing to me. I think goodness pays forward and I try to give my all in these videos and at the same time, you know, if if you give your time to write comments or watch or be part of Gareth's Top Squad or be part of Verified Investing, I think that's just amazing. But the point is, is check it out, guys. The Rumble wallet for swing trading crypto. It is awesome. Um, you can use MoonPay, you can hook up your credit card, your bank account, etc. And they throw in a small kicker. $5 in stable coins free when you use it and use the code verified five. Verified cut five. You can right below here you can use the QR code or you can look for the link in the description of this video.
But I do always thank Rumble, man. It's just like it's like it's cool, man. I like companies that recognize that, you know, I'm not a pumper. I'm not a crazy person. Like there's so much nonsense out there. If a company comes to me and says, "Hey, we like what you do. We like your level-headed approach. We like your, you know, your your logic-based structure. It does investors the right way versus what some of these other places do." I appreciate that because they're supporting and helping me keep my team and pay my team and be able to give them raises and everything like that and even bring on new people and new traders. But also, just the fact that they recognize, just like you guys do, that, um, that I'm doing, I I like to think I'm doing good work and and I'm not always right and I I want, you know, full and fair transparency, I have my crappy trades, you guys know that. But at least I base my knowledge off and my decisions off statistical probabilities versus just, oh, I'm long this, so I'm going to be bullish even if the chart looks like crap, right? I mean, that's like ridiculous. All right.
Enough of that. You guys go have Have a great one. Check out Rumble for me. Do that for me, guys. And I'll talk to you soon. Take care.