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On today's hot sheet, I'm discussing the hottest markets of the upcoming year '26, the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, uh, report for October, as well as the mortgage application report for the past week. Today is Wednesday, December 10, 2025. I am Byron Lazine, and the hot sheet starts now.
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Live from Naples, Florida. Welcome into today's Hot Sheet. It's a pleasure to be with you wherever you may be. Let me know in the live chat where you're tuning in from. Uh, it's Jay Powell day. The FOMC is getting together to make their final decision on a cut. Uh, we'll hear from Jay Powell later this afternoon. The BAM team will break it all down, the prepared statements as well as the Q&A, the presser, which, uh, that Q&A presser is really what the markets are looking for. You know, what is Jerome Powell going to say about the future? Uh, the stability of, you know, maybe more rate cuts, and they'll cling on to every single word. You don't have to worry about wasting your afternoon. The BAM team will do that. Will extract everything as it relates to future cuts, but more importantly, uh, any of the conversation that relates to your housing market. This is the show for a 24-hour look back for all housing professionals. Uh, make sure you're subscribed, hit the notification bell. Tomorrow, we break down every little word of Jerome Powell's statements for, uh, as it relates to housing.
If, when we look at kind of where we're at right now with, uh, Powell, um, CME Group's got a near 90% chance that it's going to be a 25 basis point cut. We went over some of the, uh, projections now yesterday, but now when we look at Poly Market, where, where's the money being laid in the betting markets? It's a 97% chance. So, you know, um, Poly Market, within a couple hours of, of decisions, has been historically extremely accurate. And really, there, there's not much of a message out there that says, you know, this thing could fall in that 10% that the CME Group is calling for of no change. Um, so very much all but a certainty that the decision will be to cut. It really comes down to the conversation, um, after that cut is made, how they got there, how many dissenting votes there were. You know, is this committee working well together right now at a time when we know a new Fed chairperson, uh, is about to be announced and there have been dissenting votes, um, for the first time in decades as of late? So, we'll be looking for all that and breaking it all down tomorrow.
What we're going to break down right now is Realtor.com's, uh, 10 metropolitan areas that are being named as the hottest markets of 2026. Okay. So, what are the top 10 hottest markets? Why are they named the top 10 housing markets? And then what is your region of the country leaning to for 2026? We're going to break down right now.
Okay. So, here are your top 10 metropolitan areas, uh, that surfaced as the hottest markets according to Realtor.com in their projections here for 20, uh, 26, for this upcoming year. And that's really coming down to combined growth, the number all the way at the right. Okay. So, uh, number one region is, uh, the Hartford metropolitan area in Connecticut. Uh, calling for 7.6% 6% um, year-over-year jump in existing home sales and a 9 and a half% uh, jump in median sale price. So that's a 17.1% combined growth. Uh, when that's where the combined growth is. Okay. So existing home sales increase, um, median sale price year-over-year. Those two numbers combined, only market, uh, at a 17 plus percent. There's two markets in the 15 percentile. Okay. So you have Rochester, New York, uh, another Northeast region, five and 10 respectively, up over 15% combined. Um, and then kind of that, um, that Worcester, Mass, northern, middle of nowhere, Connecticut area. Um, that, that's a, uh, 12.6% count in sales, 2.4% on price, and 15% on combined growth. Okay. So you got Northeast, Northeast, Northeast. All right. Then you got Toledo, Ohio, Midwest. Then you go Providence, uh, Rhode Island, uh, that Warwick, uh, area. Okay. So, you got Northeast again. Okay. Then you've got a, you know, one lone wolf in the South, uh, Richmond, Virginia. They consider themselves the South. I think other states in the South would say, "Hey, I, I don't know about that, VA. Sorry to my Virginia friends." Virginia friends, are you in the South or not? Um, okay. Well, Realtor.com believes you are, so I guess you are. 10.6% 6% combined growth there. Then you go Midwest, okay, Michigan, uh, Mil, you know, Grand Rapids, Michigan. Then you got Milwaukee, Midwest. Then you've got New Haven, Milford region, you kind of that Yale bubble, uh, in New Haven area in Connecticut, that's Northeast. Then you go Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, Northeast. So, um, you're, you're rolling with six of the top 10 in the Northeast. The other three, uh, are Midwest, one in the South, but that's really kind of like Mid-Atlantic region, uh, if you ask me. Agent for the People says, "Yes, Richmond is South." I call it Mid-Atlantic. Um, you know, I've been to Richmond, Virginia. Don't feel that southern to me. Um, you know, but maybe it is. I could be Agent for the People says, "Byron, you got to be for the people of Richmond, Virginia. It is for the South." All right.
So here's what these markets have in common. Okay. Um, you've got relative affordability. Okay. And, um, so those, those particular markets, like let's take the, the, uh, the three that are in that Connecticut region, um, you know, compared to other parts, you know, parts of New York or parts of, you know, Massachusetts for sure, or, you know, even compared to Fairfield County, compared to what the options are neighboring, you have relative affordability. Certainly Pittsburgh, Milwaukee, you know, some of these markets, relative, like Pittsburgh, I don't even think Pittsburgh's in the Northeast, by the way. I mean, that, that like, uh, you know, western Pennsylvania is not the Northeast, by the way, but, uh, they're throwing it in. Relative affordability, limited new construction. Okay. These are markets where you're not getting, um, uh, you know, a lot of options, a lot of new options. You got older inventory, very common trend here. Um, because of those limited options on new construction, you have limited inventory. Okay. You, you'll see kind of how this, uh, jumps off the page, um, below the average mortgage lock-in and older, well-qualified buyers, um, amid an older housing stock. So the age difference here, I thought, um, was interesting as well.
Um, okay. If we break down, and this will break down some of the regions that, you know, one of the regions that you would be in, um, everybody would be in one of these if you're in the US. Uh, median list prices here. Okay. So, um, you've got median list prices in like that Hartford region of 430. Um, that's 47% up pre-pandemic. So, all of these markets have had huge jumps since pre-pandemic because of the inventory. Um, look at Rochester, still affordable today at 250,000 plus, 42% up pre-pandemic. Um, now the, the big number here to look at on why these markets are being projected as having exponential growth in 2026 is this line: active listings versus pre-pandemic. Okay. So, that Hartford metropolitan area still today has 74% fewer listings than pre-pandemic. This is the big number. Where are you at on active listings in your market versus pre-pandemic? Are you even more of a normal market? Are you, um, you know, like a Hartford, Rochester, Worcester, these markets where you're significantly lower, haven't caught up, or are you above? I mean, if you're above and expecting price growth, those are in conflict of each other. And outlining a side-by-side example to markets that are accelerating in price versus markets that have price pressure can help show a seller that conflict. I hear prices are going to move up in '26. Zillow said that they're going to go up. Okay. Well, let's break that down regionally. And who's carrying the weight for home price growth on the macro in this country? You know, it isn't, uh, those Sun Belt states. It's the Northeast, it's the Midwest that's carrying the weight of home price appreciation that's keeping it somewhat stable, um, on a macro level, okay, because of the, um, inventory versus pre-pandemic. Hartford negative 74% active listings versus pre-pandemic. Rochester negative 60%. Worcester negative 43%. Toledo, um, negative 32 plus percent. Providence negative 40, uh, 55% rather, uh, Richmond, VA, negative 31%. Grand Rapids, negative 33%. Milwaukee, negative 35%. New Haven, Connecticut, uh, negative 66, almost 67%. And these are crazy numbers. Uh, Pittsburgh, negative 31%. Okay. Now, the average, uh, on the top 10 is -46% on active listings versus pre-pandemic. Okay. This number right here, -46.1% in the top 10. That's so you basically have near 50% less listings in the markets that are projected to grow price the most in '26. Now, the US, when you add it all up, it's pretty close to pre-pandemic levels. Just over 10% less listings. But if you're in the South or you're in the West, you're actually over pre-pandemic levels. And this is where that price pressure sits. This is where we're in conflict of wanting a higher price in a market that's adding inventory at a level higher than pre-pandemic. Okay. And, um, and it's reflective here, right? The, the South's projected to move down two and a half percent on home price appreciation. Um, the South is expected to move down on total transactions. Okay. Um, so I think a good side-by-side just for someone who's hearing a national trend, thinking about things from that perspective, why not me? Why can't we get that number? Um, well, the, the variables, the climates in conflict of getting that number. Okay.
Share of new construction, new construction share of listings. Okay. The markets, um, that have the highest bump up on, um, price are the ones that have the lowest share. Hartford, Rochester, Providence, New Haven, Pittsburgh, right? Um, now you get a premium in those markets, an exponential premium. 70%, 137%. Toledo's got 120%. New Haven, 94% premium because there's not much of it. It's a rarity to see new construction in those markets, and when there's not much of it, and you're comparing it to much older homes, you get that premium. Okay. If you're just dumping on more and more new construction, like the market that I'm sitting in here, and you know, the G Coast of Florida, you just, like, it's, it's not special to go out and view 10, 15, 20 new home options. They're everywhere. There are lots of them. Uh, it's not unique and special. In fact, a lot of it's, you know, kind of quick construction, and you're creating a list of all the things you'd want to change out. Okay.
Um, now, there's a big difference here in, um, monthly payments as there is across the country. You know, the median existing mortgage payment in Hartford County is about $1,200 bucks, and it's $2,400 or $2,300 plus today. Um, across the US, the share who own their home outright, over 40% still today. Um, and you kind of have that, most of these markets, some of them go as low as 30%. Harder to get a home in those markets. So, people are, um, you know, stretching more into the, you know, into the loans. Um, here's the, um, average FICO score is on the higher side in these markets. More competition. So the people winning are the higher FICO scores. Um, and then, um, I thought this one was interesting. Okay. When you compare the country versus the 10 hottest markets for '26, you have a median year home built in the US of 1981 and a median resident age of 40 years. Owners in their home since 1989 or earlier took a long time, is only 12% in the US. So, median year built is 1981. Median resident age is 40. And then owners in their home since '89 or earlier. The top 10 markets on by a projection here this year for home price growth, all with older median age, 55, 55, 55, 53, 55, 53, 52, 53, 55, 57, call it 55 across the board in the top 10 markets. Older homes, 67, 66, 67, 66, 62, Richmond, Virginia, 85, Grand Rapids, 80, then 67, 64, 60. The 1960s dominate these markets, not because people are only looking for 1960 homes, I can promise you that. It's lack of new builds. It's, it's lack of more options. It's lack of more inventory. It's higher regulated markets. Why do you think the Northeast is in this list? They regulate the heck out of this, out of the deal, and builders don't want to go there. Now, so in these markets, people just stay for longer. They're kind of more locked in naturally without the lock-in effect. Owners in their homes since '89 or earlier. Hartford, 16.3%. 16 plus percent of people have been in their homes since 1989. 15, 14, 16, almost 17% in Providence. Meet some of the families in Providence, you'd be like, "Man, I thought that might have been 25%." [laughter] Um, all right, Providence, don't get mad at me. 12% in Richmond, 11% in Grand Rapids. Those are the lowest. And you see that they have the, uh, the newest age, median year age of home, 14%, 16%, 20% in Pittsburgh. Okay. Um, all right. There you go. Well, there's your update on the top 10 housing markets per Realtor.com. How it compares to your region, north, northeast, Midwest, Southwest. Uh, what are the trends there? Good side-by-side comparison for somebody who's, um, really thinking that they can buck the trends of the market. Here's where it's heading. It's very that simple.
Where are jobs heading? Uh, Bureau of Labor Statistics put out a report here, um, yesterday after we signed off the show. Uh, Job Openings and Labor Turnover for October. Uh, here's the, here's the ultimate deal. Job openings, little unchanged, 7.7 million in October. Okay. Both hires and total separations, little changed, 5.1 million. Separations, both quits, 2.9 million, and layoffs, discharges, 1.9. Little changed. So, no big news on JOLTS here. Job Openings and Labor Turnover. Um, this Bureau of Labor Statistics, uh, report that comes out once a month. This is October. I think we're still a little bit lagging here, but, um, you know, really no change to consider to throw a wrench in things here for, um, for the Fed decision here today. Uh, number of employed persons per job opening. Uh, we're sitting at one for, uh, September '25, and that puts us in alignment with basically where we were in 2018. Okay. We're a little under that number, one for 17 and 19, or I'm sorry, uh, for the majority of '18 and '19. You know, the whole 2020 is an outlier. Then we kind of got really, you know, low on that number. We're back to what I would call essentially pre-pandemic levels, but that number is ticking up slowly. Um, so one, um, unemployed person per job opening. Not to say that every job opening fits every unemployed person. You know, it goes a lot deeper than that. But, um, you know, just kind of back-of-the-napkin math from Bureau of Labor Statistics, one to one there is the number.
All right. Mortgage applications increase 4.8% from a week earlier. That's a good headline number. Um, this includes the adjustment for Thanksgiving, according to Mortgage Bankers Association. Now, um, where is this headline number driven? Because 4.8%, 8% on the headline on mortgage purchase application would be a big number, is a big number. Um, but, uh, the index for, uh, refinances is what's driving it. So, the refinance index increased 14% from the previous week and, uh, 88% higher than the same week a year ago, driven by FHA loans. So, interesting. FHA mortgaged borrowers, mortgage holders are looking for a savings, something to keep in the back pocket and, and kind of see where that goes. Uh, but this number was driven by FHA loans. Big jump there. And, uh, just something to keep our eye on. The seasonally adjusted purchase index decreased 2% from one week earlier. Rates have ticked up a little bit here in the last couple weeks. You got the, the holiday. I know it's adjusted for that, but this is the seasonal time of year. That number should be moving down. Um, and you go, when you go year-over-year, 19% higher than the same week a year ago. Um, so, uh, kind of all in alignment with what we've been seeing throughout the year. Still in major recovery mode, obviously, when you compare where we are today, these are at, uh, you know, financial crisis recovery levels and mid-90s levels. So, long way to go, but, um, as you can see from where we bottomed out in '23 and '24, we are getting that, that slight uptick in momentum moving in the right direction, and we'll look for that to continue.
Okay, tomorrow we're going to have the full breakdown of the FOMC. And I called this, um, you know, over the last week and maybe even a week ago, I've called this, you know, there's going to, you're, you're going to see this decision, uh, potentially be politicized a little bit. You're going to see, um, Trump try to take some headlines away from Powell and, and see how the market reacts to potentially, you know, what's coming next. What could be a better FOMC than one that, um, in the president's eyes, he has his hands on a little bit more? And now, listen, the FOMC, the Federal Reserve, is not supposed to be politicized, but it, you know, there has been a lean towards that direction, or at least a debate about that, uh, as of late. Of course, the Supreme Court, you know, does not want this to be politicized. Uh, at least that's what they've signaled out. Should be a separate entity. Um, Trump though, we've got a headline here today from CNBC. So, he's already, I called this, he's already trying to to grab headlines as it relates to the Fed, uh, here during Fed decision week. He'll start final Fed chair interviews beginning with, uh, Kevin Worsh, who, by the way, just a couple of days ago, was not the front runner. But here's what's happened. Um, Trump's kind of changed his tune on this and now saying final interviews are beginning. Okay. Well, we're going to be looking at a couple different people. Well, um, that's a little bit different than what he said in, in, um, in a cabinet meeting that was televised last week, but he, he did allude to, I have a pretty good idea of who he wants. Now, it's been floated out that this name here, Kevin Hassett, the director of national, uh, economic council, is going to be the guy. Um, but these interviews that are being conducted not only by Trump himself but by Secretary, uh, Treasury Secretary Scott Bassent, thankfully will be in the room. Um, you know, now it seems that they've collected some data points from the market, from investors. Okay. It's possible that his selection, or teased selection, of Kevin Hassett, the economic, uh, National Economic Council, has gotten pushback, especially among fixed income investors concerned Hassett would do only what Trump's bidding and keep rates too low, even if inflation snaps back. Like the markets re believe, and maybe that's why we're getting a little bit of a, a volatile tenure here, as well, but the markets believe that, okay, if this guy gets in, Scott, um, Hassett, Kevin Hassett, rather, not, I'm confusing Scott Bent there and Kevin Hassett, Kevin Hassett, that he is going to be on a string from DC, from the Oval. Okay. He, he is going to be a puppet with President Trump as the master. That, that's a little bit of the belief here, and meaning that, you know, the president, which is not supposed to have influence on the Fed, is going to have a high level of influence. Now, not to say that presidents haven't influenced Fed chairmen before. Of course, they have. It's been a political, whether you, you know, you know, if you're a grown-up adult, okay, then you know, you don't have to mute me when I say this. The, the Fed chairs have been influenced by presidents in the past, and this isn't breaking news. Okay. Um, and so, I mean, this Fed chairman's been influenced by political decisions, and you can go back as of when he flipped on inflation being transitory. It was eight days after he got reappointed by the previous president. Okay. So, so this is not uncommon, but, um, you know, the fear is that this current president is going to have a lot of influence if it's this guy. And so now they've seen that reaction, him and, and the Secretary of Treasury, who's pretty level-headed, um, you know, said, "Hey, let's go through an interview process, maybe let's gauge some more feedback." Um, and, uh, they don't have to make a decision until May. They signal they're going to make a decision, whether it be the end of this year or the beginning of next year. But this is a headline move and trying to, trying to see how the market feels about it for sure.
Um, we had 4.20 as the number on the 10-year earlier today. Uh, sitting at 4.178. So, leading into this Fed decision, 10-year still, um, at a, at a 90-day high, not a year-to-date high, not anywhere close to it, but certainly at a, uh, 90-day high, and that's keeping an elevated 30-year fixed rate, 6.35. All right.
Um, if you want to hyper, uh, or elevate your hyper-local game, okay, um, join us today, 2:00 p.m. Eastern Time, 11:00 a.m. Pacific Time on the BAMies. We're kicking off the BAMies with a keynote from Alyssa Kernut, who is a hyper-local genius. And then we're going to move into the BAMie Award Show. It's the only real award show in real estate. It's not pay-to-play, it's live voting. So, if you want to unlock some creativity, some ideas on what could be creative content for you for Q1, the voting and that whole process of, uh, you know, of this content, it, it'll unlock some ideas. And then if you, if you just want to sit in on the, the keynote with Alyssa, she's brilliant. Um, that's going to be super valuable. All starts at 2 o'clock today, free. The BAMies. It is not a pay-to-play award show. It's voted on by you. Be part of it today at 2:00 Eastern Time. Link down below. Uh, join us on the Zoom. BAMies will not be available on YouTube. Uh, private Zoom experience for the BAMies. Looking forward to being there with you guys. Kicking off now in just 4 hours.
That's your hot sheet here for today. It was a pleasure to be with you. Uh, it's an honor to be with you each and every single morning, and I'll see you back here tomorrow. Until then, total.
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