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These are players we can't stop drafting in our fantasy leagues, and we're going to tell you why maybe you should be drafting them in yours.
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Zay Flowers is the first one here, and Zay Flowers last year was the wide receiver 13 in points per game. Average 14.3 points per game in that Baltimore offense. Played 17 games last year in an offense, by the way, that wasn't that good. Lamar wasn't that good, and Zay Flowers still was averaging almost 15 points a game. In total points last year, he was the wide receiver 70 at 118 targets on only five touchdowns. So, it's not like there's, you know, some touchdown-crazy touchdown number that's inflating all of his statistics here. Like, he was just straight up efficient as a wide receiver. Uh, he returns the same offense, an offense that projects actually to be better than it was last year.
It's also a completely new situation for Zay Flowers there. Obviously, John Harbaugh's left. He's gone to the Giants. You've got Jessie Minter coming in now. It's going to be a pretty different look there, but I don't think this is a bad thing for Zay Flowers. They didn't really bring in any other competition this offseason. You're looking at the depth chart there. You've still got Rashod Bateman, who hasn't really taken away from Flowers in his first three years. They brought in Elijah Serrat, who I think's going to be pretty good on the Ravens. They also drafted Jacoby Lane. I, I think both those guys though, as good as I think Serrat can be, I think we're, they're not going to have, if they are going to have an effect on Flowers, it's going to be very limited.
Uh, when you're looking again at at Flowers' ADP right now, uh, Flowers is going, uh, in ESPN drafts at the 406. In Sleeper PPR drafts, he's going at the 410. In Yahoo PPR drafts, he's going at the 409. So, this is a guy last year that was a wide receiver one that, you know, has wide receiver one upside. A fairly high floor. We're looking at his game-to-game performance here, and, you know, he had three games under double digits, and that's it. Last year, he did, you know, his floor is a little bit capped too, right? Had four games 20 points or higher. The majority of his games came around the 15-point range. You can see a good handful about 10 weeks here that were hovering around 15 points, and that's very reliable fantasy production in terms of what you can get for Zay Flowers.
Now, in terms of his range of outcomes, I'm not expecting a Tyreek Hill breakout like he did from 25 to 26 going to 21 points a game. I'm not, you know, Cooper Kupp, not even that. It's more, you know, I think he's going to be able to maintain or stay close to what he was doing last year. And that is be, of course, you know, at worst, even if more wide receivers stay healthy this year and the bar is raised for wide receiver production, he's a high-end wide receiver two, I think. I think he has that in his arsenal. It's not something I would have said before last year because, you know, his first two years, he was technically a wide receiver three his first two years in the NFL. But last year, I mean, he just showed a level of consistency that I think was a result of the chemistry that he has with Lamar Jackson. And again, Lamar Jackson should theoretically be better this year. I think the offense is going to be a little bit better than it was last year, at least it projects to be. Vegas projects it to be a little bit better.
And because of that, I think when you're talking about drafting this year, it's more important this year than ever to get those running backs early. Get your running back in the first, second round. And so, you have to be able to find wide receiver value in the third through ninth round that gets you that wide receiver one upside. And I think Zay Flowers is a guy that's proven he has that upside. And because of that, you can get him at a discount in the fourth round, you can draft running backs early, and you can go with somebody like Zay Flowers to start your wide, wide receiver room, which in my opinion is a great start to a draft. And so, I don't know if people are going to catch on to this or not because again, he's going mid-late fourth right now. But Zay Flowers is a guy that if his price stays where it is, I'll probably draft a ton of him this year. And shamelessly so, because I do think he still has high-end wide receiver two upside this year.
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Let's talk Cam Skattebo. Cam Skattebo is going to be the lead running back in New York in an offense where Matt Nagy is now calling plays there, and they brought Greg Roman onto their staff to essentially be the run game coordinator. And that screams a ton of volume and a ton of opportunity for Cam Skattebo right out the gate. John Harbaugh has literally said it himself that they're going to be a run-first offense that wants to give Cam Skattebo the ball as much as humanly possible. Jackson Dart has also said it himself where he says, "Based on what I'm hearing from John Harbaugh, our new head coach, um, I, I am basically expecting us to throw the ball less and run the ball a lot and give Cam Skattebo the ball a ton." Like, I, I don't think this is a, a joke of of coach speak. I don't think this is something where they're just going to lie and not give Cam Skattebo a bulk of the carries. He was so explosive and so productive last season in a small sample size, granted, before the injury, um, that I think they're going to want to see what, what they can get out of him and maximize his opportunities this season.
You're looking at his, um, consensus ADP on, on the, uh, Flock Fantasy site when you look at, uh, Sleeper versus ESPN, Yahoo, Underdog. He's going anywhere from like the early fourth round to like even the middle of the fifth on Sleeper, which is unbelievable. ESPN and CBS have him at, at like the earliest ADP, again, early fourth there. Mid-fourth is what I'm seeing it being like the most reasonable price point, um, with Yahoo and Underdog, but going right alongside guys like Ladd McConkey, Zay Flowers, Zay Flowers I was just talking about, Emeka Egbuka, Garrett Wilson, Jaylen Waddle. Basically, a big chunk of wide receivers who are all solid selections there in the fourth round, but there's a big running back drop-off, right? Because all these running backs are being pushed up boards now in drafts because everybody is starting to realize that they're, you know, their upside is second to none at this point. We're kind of entering this new golden age of running backs now in fantasy football again, and Scat Abey is well beyond that like big drop-off, but I think he's one of the more reliable non-elite running back options with, you know, a decent amount of question marks, but I think his upside in this situation with this play calling with Matt Nagy and Greg Roman is second to none. I mean, he averaged 16 points per game before he went down with the injury last season. He's shown a significant amount of receiving capability, which has carried over from his college days to now what he showcased at the NFL level. I, I think there's a lot to like about this situation as a whole, not to mention Malik Neighbors, who is supposed to be the bright spot in the receiving game, which wasn't supposed to be super duper strong in again, a Matt Nagy offense. Malik Neighbors isn't even looking to be ready to start the season. He's probably going to start the season on the PUP list, whereas Kam Scat Abey is expected to be ready at the beginning of training camp and he's already been doing a lot of drills and and looks, you know, dang near 100% after that gruesome injury last year. So, I have a lot of high expectations for Kam Scat Abey, but I think they're merited. I think they're very relevant heading into this season in a situation that is quite literally built for him, an elite level production.
Yeah, I'm going to talk about a guy that I want to turn next is going to be Ashton Jeanty. And Jeanty in his rookie year was playing behind an offensive line that was essentially non-existent last year and still managed to put up about 14 and a half points per game, which is really good again, considering that the situation was, in my opinion, one of the worst in the NFL. Now, of course, there were some red flags here, right? His, his yards per carry, his efficiency was 3.7 yards per carry. Not great. His two-grade was 28%. That's mid, right? His even his yards per target in the receiving game, 4.7 yards per target. That's not great. But I will say this about the receiving game: the 73 targets, 55 receptions, 346 yards was a very nice added bonus to what Ashton Jeanty put together last year. And again, I think the biggest problem you had with Ashton Jeanty last year, cuz he had some boom games, right? I mean, he had three, four games, 20 points plus. His floor last year was quite low, like you got, you got games in here of seven, six, four, nine, five, eight, and nine. So, I mean, you've got like eight games there that are single digits. And you can't have that with Gainwell. But, the thing is with Gainwell, like you're looking last year at his total statistics, he only had five touchdowns last year. He had five touchdowns, 975 yards on 266 carries. Again, two things are going to happen this year. Number one, the efficiency's going to go up. The offensive line isn't one of the better offensive lines in the NFL, but it is improved, right? Uh, obviously, they did sign Linderbaum, the, the center from, from Baltimore. That's definitely going to help. But, even just the fact that they're going to be, there's going to be competent quarterback play. There's going to be a scheme with proven rushing success coming in with Clint Kubiak becoming the head coach in Las Vegas. And again, most of the time you see a 22-year-old running back like Ashton Gainwell put together the season he had, you're going to see a big jump, right? Last time you saw something similar to this was Todd Gurley in 2016. He averaged 12 and a half points per game his rookie year, and then jumped to 25 the next year, right? So, you have a blueprint of guys who have had similar production in their first year and then made a big jump afterwards. And I think that's what's coming with Gainwell.
Now, I don't think he's going to have a Todd Gurley 25 points a game season, but I do think you're going to be talking about, when it's all said and done, a guy who could be averaging 18 to 20 points a game pretty easily here. He's being drafted that way as well. When you're looking at where he's going right now, and especially for PPR leagues, it's going to be like the 202. Uh, in ESPN leagues, he's going at the 112. And Yahoo leagues, he's going at the 112 as well. So, you're not getting any sort of discount on Ashton Gainwell in drafts right now. I have him ranked as my 10th overall player, right? I do have him ranked above James Cook because I, I think the, the ceiling is a little bit higher, but they're in the same tier for me. So, if you take James Cook, I have no problem with that. James Cook, Ashton Gainwell, and Devon Achane are the three guys, the three running backs that I have there at the turn that are kind of my favorite picks there. When you're going around the turn this year, I think you really need to pick up one of those guys with Saquon Barkley and Chase Brown right behind them and Amari and Hampton there as well. And there's a big, big group of running backs there. But, Gainwell, I think has as much ceiling as anybody. And last year, you know what you saw with Gainwell in that offense, he was breaking tackles at a very high rate in an offense where he was getting hit behind the line of scrimmage a lot. And so, you, you factor in that the offensive scheme is going to be better. You factor in that you're going to have Brock Bowers there and better quarterback play. So, the weapons around him are going to be better. You factor in the fact that he's going to get better as a player. It all kind of lines up to a guy who again, as 21 and a half year old, scored 14 and a half points a game, taking a four or five point per game jump and being one of the better picks in fantasy football this year. And so, again, one, two turn pick, and if you're drafting at the turn this year, which I don't hate drafting at the turn, I don't think this year. I think Jente is a pretty good start. You pair him with another running back or maybe pair him with an Amon-Ra St. Brown if he falls. I think you're off to a pretty good start in your fantasy football drafts. Jente is a guy I'm going to draft quite a bit of when I'm drafting at the turn. He's going to be one of my favorite picks this year just because I think he does have a level of ceiling that you don't see a lot with some of these younger running backs.
Chris Olave finishes a wide receiver seven last year in points per game. We had a full season of health from Olave for the first time in a couple of years, which was really encouraging, and he gets rewarded for that amazing season of production in a well-improved offense with really solid play calling and a promising young quarterback in Tyler Shuck. I guess, I guess not young, 27 years old now, but he gets, he gets rewarded in, in ADP by being a mid-third round selection. Which is, I mean, that is not only totally reasonable in selecting Chris Olave in the mid-third round, but I think that's just straight up too low. He's going to be one of my favorite selections in the mid-third round if he's going to be consistently available there. He's, he's being selected behind guys like A.J. Brown and Nico Collins, who have nice individual week-to-week upside, but A.J. Brown has not been near as productive as Chris Olave was last season over the last couple of years, and Nico Collins, if you have worries about Chris Olave being injured and getting banged up, like don't we have the same concerns with Nico Collins and what is an inferior offense with not near as much opportunity? I mean, Chris Olave had 150 plus targets last season and was getting a ridiculous amount of design target opportunity, which I think raises his floor, um, more than people would maybe expect or assume with Jordan Tyson now being, you know, thrown into that offense after being drafted in the first round this season. I honestly don't think that Jordan Tyson, coming off of a significant hamstring injury that's really hobbled him all offseason and again, being an inexperienced rookie, is really going to hurt much in Chris Olave's opportunity in the target share that he's going to command this season. It's not like he had super unreasonable target share when it comes to sustainability heading into 2026 alongside Tyson. 29% target share, which is great. That's top 10 among wide receivers. But again, it's nothing that I don't, I, it's nothing that I think is going to be unsustainable alongside a second solid wide receiver who is a top 10 pick. Kellen Moore has shown time and time and time again as an offensive play caller, as the offensive coordinator back in LA and in Dallas before that, and, you know, with their Super Bowl run in, in Philly. Like, he's shown that he likes to hyper-focus on the number one options in his offense and sometimes even two options that can both be productive at the same time. And that's going to ring true for Chris Olave this season. I don't know why that would change when his red zone targets and the design targets that he gets in general are, you know, anywhere from top 12 to top 20. His red zone target share being top five. This is very, very impressive for a guy who is, you know, up until 2025 had never shown that he could have like high touchdown volume. This really changed with the new play caller in 2025. I think you have to give Kellen Moore his flowers when it comes to the fantasy production that wide receivers there can offer. Not to mention the volume that Tyler Shuck was able to provide when he ended up being the starting quarterback in the second half of the season. You saw upwards of like 45 to 50 passing attempts. You did see a floor of like 25 to to 30. But I think you're going to see him settle again anywhere from like 30 to 35 targets per game when you just average that out on a weekly basis, which is plenty of volume to go around for Chris Olave to get, you know, all of his volume and opportunities, and Jordan Tyson to get his chances as well as a rookie. But, if you're going to bet on anybody heading into this season, why not the season veteran who has shown immense strides year-over-year as a talent and as a route runner? Again, I don't know why that would, you know, show like a cap ceiling and why that would merit him going in the mid-third round when guys like A.J. Brown and Nico are going pretty much unquestioned in the second round. Like, if it were up to me and I had to say, I would be taking Olave straight up over those guys. I would flip them and take A.J. Brown and Nico in the early third and have Olave go in the mid-second where those guys are currently going. So, in terms of bang for your buck, if you end up taking, like, let's say, two running backs in the first two rounds of your fantasy draft and Chris Olave ends up being the first wide receiver off the board for you in the mid-third round, I think I would be totally, totally happy and comfortable about that heading into this season where New Orleans is kind of an underrated, sneaky little offense that could be a lot more productive than people are expecting.
Yeah, my last guy here is going to be Jaylen Waddle. The more I think about it, the more I think he's actually going to be really good in this Broncos offense. First of all, the Broncos paid a lot to get Jaylen Waddle, right? They traded a first-round pick to go and get the guy. And I don't think Courtland Sutton's at a point in his career where he's going to prohibit Jaylen Waddle from producing at like a high-end wide receiver two level. And that's what I think Jaylen Waddle's ceiling is this year. And in terms of where, like, he's being drafted right now, this is another guy again that I think you can start early and get your running backs. And then Jaylen Waddle, on Yahoo leagues, he's going in the fifth round. Same thing with the ESPN leagues, 508, and Sleeper PPR leagues right now, he's going in the fourth. So, a little bit of a discrepancy there, but again, even if you're getting him in the fourth, this, this is very similar to like a Zay Flowers. I'm kind of zeroing in on the wide receivers I like from the fourth to eighth round this year because I do think the best strategy is going to be to get a running back or multiple running backs early and then try to find these types of wide receivers, guys that are going to have the volume, have the situation, right? This is a Broncos offense that passed the ball more times than almost any other offense last year. In fact, I think they were first in the NFL in passing attempts last year. And, and for Waddle, that's going to be brand new, right? Because for the last couple of years on the Dolphins, like Tua has either not been passing the ball out or when he has been passing the ball, the A-dot has been bad. Like Jaylen Waddle averaged 15 points a game in each of his three years. In the last two years, I would argue that Jaylen Waddle's situation has been one of the worst in the NFL. I, it's been truly bad. And the other thing is, like, you've seen his target share dip. You saw it dip in 2024. Uh, and last year's target share was fine, but again, even when you're looking at the, the sheer volume of targets here, it, it, it was 100 targets for Waddle, and that was a 23% target share. So, what does that tell you? I mean, that tells you that they only threw the ball a little over 400 times last year. That's not enough volume for a guy like Jaylen Waddle, his skill set, to produce as like a high-end wide receiver two, uh, even a low-end wide receiver one. Now, again, you're going to an offense with Bo Nix and Sean Payton where they have a significant amount of team investment in him. Uh, Bo Nix last year threw the ball 612 times. So, you're looking at Jaylen Waddle going to an offense that's going to throw the ball 150 more times than the Dolphins offense he was just on. I think that Jaylen Waddle's going to really reap the benefits of an increased situation at a time in his career where, when you're looking at him being 27 and a half, this is kind of the prime of his career. Like this, it really is. This is the, the time of wide receiver's career, uh, where they typically produce at the highest level. And I think that's what you're going to see with Jaylen Waddle. You saw it last year even. Like, you're looking at his game log. I, 8, 17, 14, 23, 15, 20, 14, 19, 18, 12. What brought his total points and and raw points per game down was just these these weeks where he had absolutely nothing. 7, 7, 2, 8, 7, 4, 0, and 0. Like, though, and, and to be fair, to be 100% fair, I think he got hurt in week 17 and didn't even play in week 18, and I think those are being counted against him. But regardless, like, you're also seeing a pretty heavy dependency on touchdowns for Jaylen Waddle because he wasn't really getting the target volume he needed to have a high floor in the Dolphins offense. I think he gets the target volume he needs, but I also think he becomes a serious, a serious big-play threat in that offense, in the Broncos' offense. I think they're going to use him pretty creatively there as well. And I just think that's going to lead to a lot more fantasy points than, than where he's being drafted. Again, he, he's being drafted in the fourth round right now as like the wide receiver, I want to say like the wide receiver 20 on average when you're looking at the Flock rankings on over the expert consensus being drafted as the wide receiver 18 right now. It's a pretty good price. And again, like he's going about three spots behind Zay Flowers on the Flock expert consensus rankings to where I feel pretty good about grabbing him and knowing what his upside is. I just feel like he's going to be a high-floor player as well, as long as he, he's able to stay healthy, stay on the field. He, again, he's going to a passing offense with a ton of volume where they typically, Sean Payton offenses tend to focus on their wide receiver one quite a bit. They tend, they tend to kind of zero in on their wide receiver one. And that wide receiver one in Sean Payton offenses historically has been fairly productive if you look back. So, I'm in on Waddle. Again, I like wide receivers in this range, and he's a guy in the fourth round, fifth round that I think if you're drafting him at that price this year, he's going to be a very high-floor option to support some very high-ceiling option running backs you get early in drafts.
Brian Thomas Jr. is understandably going a lot lower than he did in last year's drafts where he was going one, two turn. Um, and look, there are plenty of concerns with him heading into this season after a really, really disappointing sophomore showing, uh, last year where he had a ridiculous amount of drops. He did not look consistently healthy. You have more target competition than you've ever seen from BTJ, uh, with Jakobi and Travis Hunter now coming back healthy as well. Parker Washington really coming into his own last season. There are a lot of questions that need to be answered with BTJ this season where his floor is definitely, absolutely without a shadow of a doubt, low. So, I don't want to make people sound like idiots for pushing him down boards as far as they have pushed him down boards. I will say, I will gladly, happily, without a question, take a shot on BTJ over anybody else going in his range, especially at the wide receiver position because it's not like anybody else where his price point is currently, which is like ADP 75 consensus when you average out like Sleeper, ESPN, Yahoo, and Underdog, and CBS. It, it, that is, that is unbelievable. I mean, you're talking about other wide receivers, um, going almost a full round, if not more than a full round, ahead of him. Like Romeo Doubs in a crowded offense, Christian Watson, who dude has never stayed healthy in his entire life. Uh, Marvin Harrison Jr., who hasn't proven anything in his career. Jordan Addison, who's a rookie coming off of a hamstring injury. Alec Pierce, who's not even healthy right now, by the way, and probably won't for a majority of training camp. Um, Parker Washington going right by BTJ. Other running backs who are essentially like handcuff running backs, um, who hopefully can get a majority of the work, like Tony Pollard, uh, Chuba Hubbard, Rhamondre Stevenson, R.J. Harvey, Rico Dowdle. Like every single one of these guys that I'm looking at, I'm like, how is their upside any higher than what BTJ offers in an above-average offense in Jacksonville, where Liam Coen is calling plays, and has made it a point this offseason to get BTJ more involved as, and has been obviously talking him up quite a bit as well. Um, look, there are plenty of questions about Trevor Lawrence and how he and his skill set fits or doesn't fit what BTJ really offers there. There's something to be said about the production that BTJ had with Mac Jones from a target volume perspective that really raised his floor as opposed to when he was with Trevor Lawrence on the field his rookie season. That all has been noted, that's all definitely like, again, very, very noteworthy. I, I don't want that to fly under the radar, and I do think again that that definitely lowers BTJ's floor heading into 2026. You, you can't not take a shot on BTJ at this price, or I can't not take a shot on BTJ at this price as opposed to the one, two turn last season, where he's still Brian Thomas Jr. He still had that incredible, um, rookie season where he ended up being one of the most productive wide receivers straight up in the NFL, the wide receiver four with over 130 targets that season, 1200 yards, 10 touchdowns. You saw him go down to two touchdowns total in 14 games last season, um, where again, he was banged up. That touchdown regression did come. I would expect water to find its level this season, and I would expect them to try to integrate BTJ more consistently in this offense as Travis Etienne is now on the way out in the New Orleans backfield now. Bashaud Tooten and Chris Rodriguez are expected to split carries, um, split the workload in some shape or fashion this season. It's probably not going to be as explosive of a run game as it was last year with Etienne and Tooten as it will be with Tooten and Rodriguez this season. Um, and all that to say again, this is, this is an offense where I expect them to lean on the passing game a little bit more since that rushing attack is probably going to be less impactful than it was in 2025. Travis Hunter's whole situation is very much up in the air. How many snaps is he going to play offensively? Can he stay healthy? What is Zay Jones, what role is he going to play there offensively? Is he going to be an exclusive slot? Is Parker Washington just going to be pushed down the depth chart? I think with the draft capital investment and what BTJ has showcased just from an upside perspective in the past, I think that merits him getting more integrated in this offense this season, and at the price that you're getting him with those guys that I mentioned that are going right alongside him. I don't think any of those wide receivers have any higher of a floor than BTJ does, and they sure as heck don't have the upside or the ceiling that he has, which is objectively a top six wide receiver in fantasy, which we saw demonstrated as a rookie in 2024. So again, I understand, I understand the situation is different. I'm totally understanding of all of the moving parts that are going on there offensively, not to mention Trevor Lawrence's shortcomings as a deep ball passer. Um, he has to improve there. He, he, to be more consistently accurate, and BTJ has to clean up the drops that he had last season. He's got to be a more consistent touchdown threat, and he has to capitalize on the big-play ability that he demonstrated as a rookie. All that to say, give me the shot there in the seventh round. Odds are the guy that you take a shot there anyways is generally not going to be like a, a huge bang for your buck, like league-winning pick. BCJ could be if he hits this season.
So, again, those are players at least early on in this process we really like. I can guarantee you all these players, like, I'm going to be drafting a lot of the guys I mentioned this year just because I'm starting to zero in on some of my favorite targets. I know Nate feels the same way. Drop a like on the video if you enjoyed. Make sure you subscribe. Again, if you want the best tool to help you with your fantasy drafts this year that we spent months and months developing, every single league setting, every single platform, you can get it, unlock the algorithm below. It's $34 for the season pass over on the site. You're going to get the ADP database. You're going to get the rankings, the trade calculator. You're going to get free start, sit, and trade questions from Nathan and I personally as you go throughout the season. And then you're going to get the algorithm. The algorithm in all of its glory. Again, it will help you regardless of what type of league you have. It will give you the rankings to help you win your leagues, and will automatically recommend every single pick for you as you go. So, check it out below. Again, it's 30 bucks. And we spent like three and a half months working on it. So, you're going to want to check it out. I promise you it's worthwhile. We appreciate you guys watching. Thanks for joining us. We'll see you here soon.
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