Transcription
Hello everyone. I hope you are doing well. We are back for the Wednesday, November 12th brief. It is 7:45 AM. Today, we will talk about economic news, the long-short ratio, funding open interest, and liquidations. We will look at what the Wells are doing, finishing with a technical analysis of Bitcoin. But before that, we will look at what happened yesterday. I was able to short Bitcoin. So, I entered at $105,505. So we weren't exactly in the same place. Uh, so, the short is going rather well. I took a TP1, so I closed 35% of my trade at an RR of 1.6. So when we arrived in this FVG right here, my TP is at $97,500. I am currently at BE, so we will see if we get stopped out at BE. Uh, otherwise, well, it's not a big deal, we will make a second entry. But in any case, I told you that I was long on the last trade, and in fact, when we took this liquidity, I chose to close this long at -0.25R. Uh, so I had entered long here, I believe. I had entered here with a stop here to aim for, quite simply, $108,400. So it was an RR of 2.61. I closed when we came here. So it's a real shame because I hadn't seen that I was at an RR of 1.8, given that it was 2 AM. Uh, so, it was, it was a real shame, but in any case, I closed at 0, at -0.25R, and so I took this short afterwards because I thought it was logical to dump afterwards. So I did well to close this long to open a short. Sometimes, you have to know how to change your bias in the other direction, quite simply. You have to know how to re-analyze your trade and say, well, I was wrong in this area, and maybe it will go in the other direction. The probabilities were for a dump, and so logically, well, we will continue to logically dump. We had several interesting zones on Bitcoin that we have currently managed to break. On the other hand, we still have this IFVG that is holding up. So it is this zone that could bring us a bit higher. So we clearly see that here it was an IFVG. So we had this zone here as an FVG that we hadn't filled. So it had clearly been inefficient when we came back. And we clearly see that it has served as a rejection currently. So we have a current rejection, but that doesn't necessarily mean it will serve as a complete support to be able to move up completely again. We are currently bearish on H4. We validated a trend change right here. We have data that remains negative currently. So we could go and seek a bit lower. Knowing that here it's not necessarily clean. We still have a good accumulation of liquidity. We had simply bounced in the IFVG that we had here, same thing. So IFVGs work rather well when you really want to catch a bottom. So here we had bounced exactly in this IVG zone between $101,230 and $101,529 if you want to draw it to see the efficiency of IFVGs. And so logically, we should come and seek the lows since the lows here are not necessarily clean. And if we zoom out a bit, we hadn't done our liquidity hunt before being able to go back up to $98,119. So logically, we should be able to come and seek this zone, and that would be really interesting since it would give a complete RR of 4.67. So with profit taking, it would give an RR of 3.5. So rather interesting.
Regarding economic news, today we have nothing. On the other hand, tomorrow, be careful, we will have American inflation at 2:30 PM. So tomorrow, we will have quite a bit of movement in the markets. Regarding crypto bubble, what we see is that, well, we had the dump on Bitcoin, so the Alts have recovered. We notably have STRK which is down 15%, SUN which is down 11%, FED which is down 9%, 9%. And otherwise, we have CC which is up 16%, HASTER which is up 7.4%, and FTN which is up 3%. If we look at funding open interest, what we see is that currently it is rather longs that are being opened on this dump. So we had a dump on Bitcoin, but we clearly see that we had a rise in funding with a rise in open interest, which means that right here, it is mostly longs that have been opened, and therefore, we have accumulated liquidations to the south but also to the north since right here, what we see is the rise in open interest with a dump in funding, which means that here it is mostly shorts that have entered, so that is also the reason why we are bouncing a bit.
If we look at liquidations, we still have a cluster to come and take at $102,000. But most liquidations are still to the north over the last 48 hours. So it could be interesting to have a bounce around $105,384 to then be able to go back down. So we will see if this FBE trade works out, but in any case, it will be an opportunity to re-enter with a new position. So maybe it's time to take some profits in this zone. Regarding liquidations over 3 days, we still see that we have a cluster that can take us up to $100,583,593. And if we look over 2 weeks to go a bit further, we still have a large cluster of liquidity to come and take around $98,000, and then the real work is at $111,000, given that we have several billion to come and seek if we go into this zone. And so it would be really interesting to aim for $99,000 to $97,500 to then come and seek the zone of $111,000 to $114,000, and that would be really incredible.
Regarding what the Wells are doing, the Wells have sold this movement. They started selling this movement. So they started selling around $104,000, around $103,500. They bought back a tiny bit right here. But if we look at micro-wells, we don't necessarily have massive buying. Nor do we with retail. So if the Wells start selling, clearly, with the longs that are being opened, logically, we should come and seek the lows located right here at $101,500, then have a potential bounce, and then come and seek $99,210 before coming to seek $97,500. So technically, what I think is that we can very well come back to seek the FVG. Oops, that's not what I wanted to do. We can very well come back to seek the FVG that we have between $103,700 and $104,700. So we could very well wick above this zone to then have a real rejection, come and seek $101,000, then potentially have a bounce to then come and seek $97,000. Why not during American inflation, have a real liquidity wick. So still expect a liquidity wick in one direction to liquidate the other direction afterwards. But logically, the plan is good to come and seek $97,700. If I cut this short, I will say it directly in the school. Do not hesitate to join us, it will be a great pleasure to train you. There will be live sessions soon. And, and so, in any case, I hope this video pleased you. If so, I invite you to subscribe, like, and comment what you think. We will meet again tomorrow at the same time, and then we will meet on the other side. Bye! Have a good day.