Transcription
Let's talk about the price of gold. I'd like to invite you to look at the chart. Alright, today, how is the price of gold? Khun Gae >> Oh my, the price of gold has increased. It's 1,450 baht. Teacher, please repeat that. >> 1,450 baht. >> It's increased a lot. >> Yes, it's very different from the beginning of the week. Teacher, uh, it's been adjusted 17 times. Teacher, 17 times. >> Yes. Gold bars are sold at 65,550 baht. Gold ornaments are sold at 66,350 baht. >> Yes. >> Oh my, it's gone up. >> Even though at the beginning of the week, people were still hesitant. >> It was still falling, and we didn't know where or how low it would go. I'd like to invite you to look at the gold chart for the past month. As of when I went on air, this is the gold price chart for 1 month compared to the US dollar. Viewers will see that on Tuesday, I said that it was sideways. >> Uh-huh. >> Sideways means it's quite flat. >> Yes. >> If it stays like that for a long time, there are two possibilities: if it's very low, it might go up, or if it can go down further, it might go down, right? >> Uh-huh. >> No one knows. Some predict it will go to 3,500, 3,600. >> Yes. >> Some are waiting, but now it's bounced up, as if there's a positive signal emerging. >> Uh-huh. >> And what positive signal is this? From the previous level of 4,000 or lower, in one day it increased by 100 dollars. Why? >> Let's move past this point. The next topic is, I'm also interested in US Treasury bonds. While the price of gold is rising, what is the trend of the 10-year US Treasury bond, which usually correlates? This is the 1-month chart. >> Of the yield, which we are monitoring. If the yield goes up, it means that Treasury bonds are being sold off, and the yield on Treasury bills will increase. >> Uh-huh. >> The 10-year Treasury bond in the past month has been on a downtrend and is now entering an uptrend. This means that the bond yield, which at the beginning of the week we said people were rushing to buy bonds. >> Now, there's a sell-off of bonds, and they're buying gold. This is very clear. >> The third point is the US dollar. Viewers will see that the US dollar, there's the US Dollar Index, compared to major world currencies. If it goes up, it means the dollar is strengthening. >> Uh-huh. >> If it falls, it means the US dollar is falling. >> Yes. >> Viewers, you will see that the price of gold, uh, excuse me, the US dollar, the US dollar has been rising all along. It's been quite sideways, moving horizontally. And now, in the past few days, it's fallen. >> Uh-huh. >> From 101 to approximately 100.77. From these charts, we'd like to invite viewers to see what happened last night. Let me summarize it for you briefly. >> Uh-huh. >> First, viewers, the next chart, this one, it comes from this very issue: US employment figures, called, uh, US non-farm payrolls. This is the employment rate in the non-agricultural sector, reporting how many jobs were created. >> Uh-huh. >> The figures for June, the latest figures, show an increase. >> Yes. >> Viewers, 57,000 positions. >> Uh-huh. >> Which is lower than economists predicted, which was 11,000 positions. >> Oh my, half? >> It's a big drop. >> Yes. >> This drop is the forecast. Forecasts compared to the advance estimate of 128,000 positions. >> Now, viewers, think about this: if the gap is this large, it means the economy is weakening, right? The number of positions is lower in the non-agricultural sector. >> It means fewer people have jobs. >> Right? >> Uh-huh. >> If you see a signal like this, with fewer positions, the economy is contracting. >> Uh-huh. >> If the economy is contracting, people believe that the Fed, or the central bank, will not dare to raise interest rates, because if they raise interest rates, the economy will contract further. >> Uh-huh. >> And importantly, the price of oil. I didn't bring the chart, but I will report to viewers that the latest oil price, US Oil, which is West Texas Intermediate. >> Uh-huh. >> It's below 70 dollars, down to 68 dollars. >> It used to be over 100 dollars, right? Now it's 68, below 70 dollars. This means the cost, the oil price for the whole world, the production cost has decreased. >> Decreased, yes. >> Decreased. This indicates that inflation might not be a major issue anymore. >> Uh-huh. >> In the future, if we see this trend. >> Even though there has been damage from the recent refinery closures and oil production facilities, inflation will not be the main issue, making the idea of inflation risk, which is to be solved by raising interest rates. >> Uh-huh. >> If interest rates are raised, it might not happen easily. >> Uh-huh. >> And if interest rates are lowered to stimulate the economy, when will that happen? >> Uh-huh. >> Gold will rise. This is the main point. Now. >> Rise. >> Let's return to the report from last night. After these figures were released, it shows that this is the slowest employment growth in 4 months. >> 4 months, 1, 2, 3, 4. >> And the unemployment rate has decreased. >> Yes. >> It's 4.2%, 2%. This is because some people have left the workforce. >> Uh-huh. >> So, some people have left their jobs. Now. >> The adjustment of the Fed's interest rate forecast, which is the central bank. Weak employment figures like these have caused investors to reduce their confidence that the US central bank will proceed with raising interest rates. >> The chance of the Fed raising interest rates in September, the 9th month, will decrease to about 51%. >> From >> the previous expectation of 66% before the report was released. From 66%, people are now saying that the chance of a rate hike will decrease, from 66% to just about half. >> Oh, really? >> Oh. >> Yes. >> If this is the case, it means no interest rate hike, so gold should prepare to rise. When people see this. >> They sold off US Treasury bonds and bought gold. >> Uh-huh. >> Therefore, another part of the price is the falling oil price. >> Crude oil prices have continued to fall for the 3rd day, helping to alleviate concerns about inflation. >> Which is driven by energy costs. Let me reiterate, high inflation. >> And if interest rates rise, gold will fall. >> Uh-huh. >> But if interest rates don't rise and they want to stimulate the economy. >> They have to lower interest rates. >> Uh-huh. >> Gold will regain its importance and will rise. When people see this trend, they return to buying gold. This is the first point. >> Oh, that's why it surged today. >> Yes. Now, a key analyst, Wisdom Tree, has stated that the previous correction in gold prices, looking at the first chart of gold. >> Is not the end of the long-term gold bull market. We will later connect this with Professor Thanong Khanthong, who analyzed yesterday, and Khun Gae will tell you about it. >> But it's a cleansing of the bubble. >> Uh-huh. >> That surged too strongly at the beginning of the year. Now, gold prices have returned to equilibrium at a fair value. >> Uh-huh. >> According to market mechanisms, which is a system reset to prepare for another climb. >> Yes. >> The next interesting point is the future forecast from financial institutions. Experts from various offices believe that although there may be some short-term selling pressure due to gold ETFs continuing to sell units and the dollar remaining strong, the overall medium and long-term outlook is very positive, with the following targets. >> Uh-huh. Goldman Sachs says it will rise to $4,900. >> Oh my. >> By the end of this year. >> Uh-huh. >> End of 2026. >> Yes. >> Wisdom Tree says from 4,100 it will go to $5,000 by the first quarter. >> Uh-huh. >> Of 2027, next year. >> Ah. >> UBS says it will reach $5,200, seeing a potential surge of another 27%. Now, this is the overall picture. >> Uh-huh. >> Let's return to Professor Thanong Khanthong from yesterday. >> Yesterday, the professor also spoke about the previous correction, partly due to price manipulation. >> In the paper gold market and precious metals like silver. But now it's paving the way for recovery in July. He said that the movements that occurred were mostly selling pressure from the paper market, and it intensified due to algorithmic trading. >> By ETFs, futures markets, and position adjustments from investor panic. This caused it to surge high and then pull back to correct. >> Yes, Professor Thanong is looking at paper trading or paper gold trading as a tool for manipulation and dumping by various groups, especially hedge funds. >> Uh-huh. >> Futures market groups. >> This has become a big problem: if they want to dump, they dump to buy up. >> And they say there's dumping to channel money to buy. >> SpaceX shares of. >> Elon Musk. >> Musk, which is. >> To dump, and then the money has nowhere to go but to buy. >> SpaceX. >> And then the AI market surged across the board. >> Yes. Then after a while. >> Now it's falling again. >> Falling again. But someone has already profited. >> Someone has already profited. Next. >> And he said that now, looking at the figures from the beginning of the year until Tuesday, the correction has dropped by 27%. Professor, from the all-time high on January 28th, it was $5,595. However, all of this, uh, looking at it, these movements do not align with the continuous demand from central banks. >> I repeat, central banks have been buying non-stop this month, last month. I always ask, they are still net buyers at 5,600. >> Uh-huh. >> China is still buying non-stop. >> So, why wouldn't they buy when the price falls? And they are indeed buying. And importantly, China is now. >> Closing trades, gradually closing. >> Uh-huh. >> To close all positions, meaning to stop trading or reduce trading volume of paper gold. >> Uh-huh. >> To reduce it. Why? There are several reasons. First, it's a tool for easy manipulation. >> Yes. >> Yes. Second, the existence of so much paper gold, more than the actual gold volume, makes the volume of paper gold so large that it can suppress the price of the scarce gold in the world. >> To be low, not reflecting reality. Oil is also like that. >> Yes. >> And then what? Khun Gae? >> And they compare it, saying that during the period when the documents were released, Trump bought shares of the seven angelic companies, Apple, Alphabet, etc., between $10,000 and $250,000. >> Yes. >> For example, Apple, on the 8th, when he announced the tariff increase, and on the 8th, when he went to buy, Apple was down 5%. 5%. >> Yes. >> Meanwhile, the day after he bought, he announced the easing of measures, and Apple's stock surged immediately by at least 15%. >> This clearly shows that in the global market, people are playing with rhetoric and geopolitics for personal gain. >> Personal gain. >> Yes. Therefore, both dumping and manipulation can happen at any time. >> Yes. >> Not according to normal market mechanisms. >> Uh-huh. So, for investors, even though gold is rising now, don't be complacent. >> Yes. >> The principle is that if anyone wants to invest in gold, always think of long-term investment. >> It's not a problem when the price falls. >> There's a lot of criticism, for example, on the Reddit forum, Wall Street Bets. They say, imagine insider trading. If you're in the White House and you don't become a billionaire from this, you'd be the stupidest person in the world. Gae sarcastically said, it has led to heavy criticism of conflicts of interest. Because after previous disclosures, he was seen as having profited from cryptocurrency investments, even though he himself announced that he would make the crypto capital in the US. >> That is, issuing policies to boost his own business. >> Uh-huh. But now, I'll tell you, this July, I've been saying this for months. >> That July will be a major reform in China. >> Yes. First, they are trying to close the status of futures gold funds, which are paper gold, and gradually closing them. >> Yes. >> Futures markets. >> Yes. >> To have trading based on the actual gold content as much as possible, because gold is now moving from the West to the East, and the majority of buyers are in Asia now. And they continue to buy, including central banks. And now, globally, the proportion of gold is greater than US bonds. This should be considered a big deal. >> Viewers might say, is this ordinary? It's a big deal because it means that central banks worldwide see that the US dollar has problems, and it truly does have problems. >> Yes. >> They continue to borrow, to print endlessly, and there's no certainty about what will happen. Now the world is changing, and the holding of gold is shifting. >> Uh-huh. >> And what does Professor Thanong predict about this increased holding of gold? Khun Gae, please summarize. >> He sees it as a continued bull market. >> Yes. It's just a correction to manage the bubbles that have occurred. And he said that now, Professor is talking about geopolitics and conflicts that will drive gold to remain a safe haven. For example, Russia. Professor, it's very scary. >> Russia is very scary. >> There are fears that it will expand to NATO. From Ukraine to NATO, eventually becoming the battlefield of World War III. >> Uh-huh. Therefore, viewers, be aware that investment has risks. No matter how anyone analyzes investments, know that it is in a situation of high uncertainty. >> High risk, don't use your hot money. >> To invest at this time. Money that you need for daily life is not for this. >> Not for this. But if it's cold money, you can wait for it to be low before deciding to buy. If it's not low enough, then don't buy yet. That's the principle. But now. >> Today, the Thai stock market. >> Oh my. >> Oh my, it's set a record. >> Let's look at the atmosphere. >> Let's look at the atmosphere. Today, the Thai stock market is very exciting. >> Yes. It closed at 1,611.28 points, an increase of 17.72 points. >> It broke through 1,600. >> Oh my. >> 11.28 points. >> And it set a new high in 3 years. >> And the volume was 80,000. >> Over 80,000 million. >> Million baht. >> Yes. Foreign money, Professor, is important. >> It's flowing in continuously. >> When foreign money has nowhere to go, and if the dollar is unstable. >> Uh-huh. >> It goes to gold, we've seen that. Not bonds. >> No. >> In America, it's shaken today. >> Yes. >> Stocks in general are down. >> Uh-huh. >> And they turn to Asia. >> Uh-huh. >> Yes. So, Asia has many options. >> Yes. >> This is where I'll tell viewers, viewers, do you see that KBANK, PTT, KTB, Delta stocks? >> Uh-huh. >> Oh my, the top 4 are in energy and banking. >> Which are two businesses that make enormous profits. >> Yes. >> And it reflects that in Thailand, these business groups are still making enormous profits. >> Yes. >> And of course, the refinery group is still making a lot of profit. >> Yes. >> They are making huge profits, only Thai people are still poor with this picture. >> Exactly. >> Yes. >> Alright, we're done with this point. I'd like to remind viewers that investment has risks. Follow the news closely, and don't believe anyone, don't believe me either. Follow the news closely and make your own decisions. >> Can you not invest? Yes, you can. >> It depends on the viewers. >> I'd like to tell viewers that sometimes, investment is not the same as making a living. >> Uh-huh. >> Someone who sells noodles might make a higher percentage profit. >> Compared to buying stocks or gold. >> If they make a living in their own way steadily. But Khun Gae, nowadays. >> Uh-huh. >> Making a living is much harder than before. >> Much harder, even though there are many opportunities. >> Because of social media, things have changed. >> Celebrities are no longer meaningful. >> Uh-huh. They've become salespeople. >> Yes. There are salespeople everywhere, and they're also deducted, deducted this and that. >> So there's almost no profit. >> Products or production are mostly not done in Thailand. >> Uh-huh. Imported from China, you see. >> All of this is the instability of careers in Thailand, especially when energy prices are high. >> Uh-huh. Banks make excessive profits. These two groups have become groups that drain wealth from the entire country even more. >> Uh-huh. Ordinary Thai people have to bear more. >> In the public sector, it's full of corruption, isn't it? >> Yes. >> What we see here, government officials, from energy to the latest, steel. >> Uh-huh. Which is an observation from some political parties. >> Which we will discuss later. >> This reflects that energy costs are high, electricity costs are high. Energy is expensive, banks make enormous profits, household debt is increasing, the government also has more debt amidst ongoing corruption. >> All of this. >> It raises the question: do we need to change the government? >> Yes, it raises the question. >> And there's also corruption. >> And I'll put in parentheses that what's rumored in the media circles, that Sasal will come, means. >> Sasal in the economic circles. >> Why do others think this way? Why do these numbers come up? >> Because the problem has spread to the people's livelihoods. >> Not to mention. >> Heroin trafficking. Oh my, it's continuously damaging our reputation. >> And it causes Thailand. >> To lose confidence as a nation with national aviation. >> The image is damaged, the image is damaged and shaken.