Transcription
Hello friends, I hope you are well, you are in shape, you are feeling great. Very happy to see you again for this Bitcoin journal this Wednesday, November 19, 2025, facing a completely red crypto market, not pretty, you'll tell me "No, no, Foufi, we're not feeling great." Yes, I know very well friends that right now, almost no one is feeling great, unfortunately. Well, we have to start from the principle that we are all in the same boat. So, not exactly if you want, some are in boats that are really sinking enormously because they went for little exotic altcoins as I say, you see, and they are taking a big hit there. Others, the boat has unfortunately almost sunk because their altcoin is at the bottom of the water. The biggest boat is Bitcoin. It's rocking, but it's rocking less than the boat of Ethereum, which is rocking less, Solana, BNB already has that, but you see, as soon as you go towards the small caps. Well, there are two or three who found some altcoins there that even pushed while everyone is in the red. They are on a small yacht sipping there. They are like, hmm, cryptos, it's easy cryptos because they really found the exact altcoins, huh. Well, and there are two or three there who are on fire and next to them they see everyone else clinging to the mast of the boat there and they are like, like, like. Well, so we are all in the sea, but it's true that we are not all exactly in the same boat, if you want. Well, so big up to all the friends. In any case, don't forget that we are together. We are, we are trying to be united. We see each other, we call each other, hang in there, even if I am in the 100% Bitcoin boat, which is bigger, I shout to you, hang in there, hold on tight. Try to throw you life preservers. But after that, I can't do more, I can't dive with you. I'm staying in my Bitcoin boat [laughs], excuse me. On the other hand, the first one who wants to join the Bitcoin boat, I'll throw a rope and pull him myself with my strength, no problem. I'll throw a life preserver, I'll pull you, I'll pull you. So don't hesitate. So big up to all, courage to all. A bad period to get through. We're clenching our butts. We're waiting for it to pass. Some are taking a bigger hit than others, unfortunately. Of course, I understand that. So be strong, friends. So tonight, ah yes, there's a little live stream like every Wednesday evening, it's happening on the VIP channel which is free and open to everyone. I created this channel because I was asked for it for a very, very long time, where I share every morning a technical analysis video, quite precise, for those who trade or even if you don't trade, for those who want to know exactly what could happen every morning. It's about 10 minutes. It's free. You just need to have an account on Bings. I created this VIP channel to thank the people who use Bings by going through my link. It allows me to remain a partner with Bings, huh. So don't hesitate to come. Every Wednesday evening, I analyze all your altcoins. So each of you throws in one altcoin per person and I analyze all of that for you regarding what could happen. So tonight from 9 PM to 10 PM, we'll meet on the Técram VIP channel. So for now, the market is not good at all, unfortunately. Too bad, yesterday we had a little bit of green. We know very well that it wasn't going to be great and that it didn't smell good. That's why yesterday I put in the video title, attention, is this a real rebound or a bull trap? Well, it was a bull trap. Well, so now the Bitcoin ETFs are not with us. Anyway, I share that with you every day, I even shared it a few hours ago. Black Rock had sent hundreds of millions more to Coinb Prime, it's to sell. Now, it's not Black Rock that sells. When I say Black Rock sells, it's a misuse of language, it's Black Rock's clients who sell. Why are they selling? Because, well, they are also selling the stock market, huh. The stock market is not very pretty with the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq in the big red. Today, it's slightly in the green but well, it's not breathing great optimism. Ethereum too, the poor thing, is being sold. Well, it had its moment of glory with the ETFs, unfortunately, it's deflating. The market is still in extreme fear. But that's good, I want to say, let the market stay in extreme fear. That's where bottoms are always made, in extreme fear. The problem is that you don't know the duration of extreme fear. It can be 2 weeks, it can be 2 months, you don't know, that's the problem, you see. But at some point, that's where it happens. Well, so that's why it's sometimes hard to hold on for the long term. Well, so the altcoins, we're back to expensive. Is it catastrophic nuclear? No, it's still okay. We're not about to blow up the Bollinger band of Binger to 608 billion dollars. If tomorrow we start to see this candle do this, boom. Then it's nuclear descent. Especially since there will be volatility, there will be big green or big red coming because tomorrow it's going to swing. I'm spoiling it for you directly. Tonight, we'll have Nvidia's numbers, the quarterly figures of Nvidia, and tomorrow morning, we'll have Walmart. So Nvidia, but you have the biggest company in the world, AI right now everyone is on AI, and Walmart, that will show you the consumption of Americans too, huh, one of the biggest chains there. So there will be Nvidia, tomorrow Walmart, the minute of the party tonight at 8 PM and tomorrow, I told you about it this morning in the news video, I'll talk about it again tomorrow morning at 2:30 PM, the NFP, we'll have unemployment and job creation. So, will it be a big beautiful green candle? If Nvidia's numbers are good and employment is not too bad, it could be a nuclear red candle where we'll all cry if employment is not good and Nvidia is not doing well. Well, employment not good, well I'll talk about it later, it could make green. Well, I'll get to that later. Okay. So for now, the altcoins want to retest their Bollinger band, as long as it doesn't break, it's okay. I'm telling you again, there are still beautiful divergences continuing because to make divergences, you simply take the closes. Okay? So here the closes, you see well that the price here, boom, it's going down, the little price, and here you see well that here we have the RSI which is going up and we also have the MACD which is going up. So we still have these bullish divergences, it doesn't mean that it's going to push right away. It means these bullish divergences, well, they help not to fall, huh. It's like they were bases, giant bases that put bases. Bam, I'm an RSI divergence, I'll help you. Bam, bam. So it can help to hold on. But well, if Nvidia has terrible numbers and tomorrow it's not good at all in terms of NFP, well, the divergences won't help much. You see, in terms of structure, we don't forget, well, the structure has been telling us for a long time, for more than a month, that it wants to retest the bottom of the wick here, and it's missing about, let's say, about -6 -7% to reach the bottom of the wick. So if you have to tell me Foufi, what's a bearish scenario? Well, I want to tell you the structure, as usual. So the structure here, unfortunately, tells us that it wants to break the bottom of the wick here to validate a big regular. And that could be quite good. Be careful, when you see it zigzagging like that, at some point, it breaks upwards. But here, the bottom of the wick, there are still strong probabilities of reaching it. So to take another -7%. Is it with tomorrow's bad numbers that we'll see that we'll have an atrocious day all at once? It remains possible, huh. So I think that for now the bottom is not yet there but soon, and I'll tell you why soon, of course with arguments. I'm not pulling this out of my hat. In our little beloved Bitcoin, which started to explode the Bollinger band here on November 14th with that candle. As usual, we know the song, as soon as we break the Bollinger band, it widens and the candles, bam bam bam bam slide on it. Well, for now, the sliding is not over, but I want to say something right away that I tell you every day and I'll repeat it every day. Bitcoin is in oversold territory. This happens very, very rarely, and as I always tell you, when Bitcoin is in oversold territory, I get naked. I get completely naked. I jump into Bitcoin when Pixou, like Pixou jumps into his coins. I jump into Bitcoin and I eat everything I can. Bitcoin for breakfast, chocolate chip cookies, I eat everything. I don't care. You see, the last time Bitcoin was in oversold territory on the RSI was in February 2025, okay. This happens very, very rarely. So it doesn't mean that the bottom is right here, it means that Bitcoin is oversold, people are scared and they are selling at a loss, that's what it is, you see, and it's in these moments that you have to hold on tight and say to yourself, I'm putting in some ammo. In any case, I'm putting in some ammo, okay. What I can, everyone does as they can, of course, but it's in these extreme fear zones where everyone is scared. So everyone is panicking, everyone has their balls between their legs and everyone is clenching their butts very tightly. It's in these periods that are the best periods to make these little purchases. This is not investment advice. And I'm talking about Bitcoin, okay, I'm not talking about exotic altcoins here and there. I don't touch that. Well, that's it, and on the contrary, when you are in oversold territory, that's where investors take profits. So as long as Bitcoin remains in oversold territory, these will be very, very good zones. Okay. Now, there isn't a big bullish divergence forming yet. We would like a nice bullish divergence on the Bitcoin RSI. That would make us happy, you see. And on the MACD, for now, we don't have that on Bitcoin. And as usual, our beloved Bitcoin continues to zigzag. At some point, it will turn around. We'll follow. If it continues here to offer a little bearish exhaustion channel, well boom, that will be the end. So why did I tell you a few minutes ago that I didn't feel a drop in altcoins? I'll tell you right away. A quick look at the liquidity. So you have Bitcoin, it has a little bit to eat until 86. Can it go there? Yes, we don't forget that at $85,000 there are the 382 Fibonacci retracement levels which are really a mega important support for Bitcoin. So can it go to 85,000? Unfortunately, it remains possible, especially since there's a little bit to be liquidated. But we don't forget that the big party is to the north with 10 billion to go get, if 101,000. A little bit to just 101,000, that's 10 billion that the market is taking. Imagine the market goes back to 105 or 110, that's 15-20 billion it's taking. To the south, it can go to 80,000, the market. Well, anyway, if the market goes below 86, then it has nothing left to eat, you see. So at some point, it will have to turn around. So why did I tell you that altcoins for me haven't found a good bottom yet, huh, not a definitive one of course, is because there are the gaps, I've been talking about them for a while, these gaps, gaps on Ethereum. We're not far. -3.38% to eat the gap. I personally think that Ethereum and Solana need to eat their gaps. Solana's gap is not very far either. It's at a small -9%, not very far. It's taken a hit, you see, to really say yes, this smells good. You see, the gaps need to be eaten. The gaps need to be filled, these liquidity holes need to be closed. And Ethereum is not far, you see. So here, Ethereum eating its little gap at 2853 on the Bollinger band. In my opinion, I think it will go up, you see. And on top of that, it would go into oversold territory again. So well, all of this is very good. It's very good. Ethereum, we still have beautiful bullish divergences forming. At some point, these divergences, bam bam, which have been there for a big week, even more, even a month. At some point, this will clearly slow down the correction, and the big divergences here on the RSI are starting to appear, it has slowed down. Well, so here, a little dip to the gap at 2853, and will the divergences then cause Ethereum to rebound? It remains possible. Especially since I like what we see on the structure. You see an exhaustion here, as I've been telling you for a while. But I don't have a crystal ball, huh. This is what the structure does best. It's when we have an exhaustion like this of a downtrend that zigzags, and here it's very beautiful. And so remember what I told you, what would be most beautiful in terms of structure, but it's the bearish channels that go to the gaps like Bitcoin. Now, Bitcoin isn't really making a bearish channel for now, you see. So if it makes a bearish channel, we risk going much lower. But Ethereum, look, there's a beautiful bearish channel forming in a zigzag, zigzag. And if it goes to the gap, well, maybe after that it will simply turn around. The gap at 2853, it's there, well, there's still a little bit of upside to seek. The longs, anyway, they are capitulating. That's good, I've been sharing with you for several days in the morning about the counter-options, people are capitulating. The spread has moved to the other side. That's good, they are good. That is to say, there's a big cleanup in terms of counter-options. Counter-options used a lot by professionals too, who are letting go of Mias. There's a big cleanup there. So at some point, it will be over, huh. So go see the videos from this morning. These are not things I'm pulling out of my hat, where I don't say yes, I think it's over. No, no, the analyses link all of this and tell you at some point, this cleanup at the bottom is all clean, there's nothing left to take. Well, and so we'll have to take good care of everything that's in gold. So Solana, I see it going to 121. After that, it's quite personal, the 121, why? Because gaps are very often filled, so why wouldn't it go there? Solana, which is also in oversold territory here, Sol here, very good zone. Solana, which also still has signs of beautiful bullish divergence. So it's simple, huh, when you have a combo that tells you I'm zigzagging and exhausting, I'm going to the gap under bullish divergences, it's starting to be pretty good if you want to start to have a little bottom. So, as usual, I'm not saying the bottom is now, but it's forming, it takes time. But you see it forming, the bottom, like a top, huh. Bitcoin at 126,000. It didn't say hello to 126,000 and bam, it fell back. It told us "Hello, I'm diverging. I'm diverging in weekly, 3 months later. Oh, I'm still diverging in weekly." You see, Bitcoin warned us well in advance. You had all summer quietly to take profits, you see. And it was diverging under divergence. So, it's the same for the bottom, it's the same. Bullish divergence, bullish divergence, bullish divergence. At some point, poof, it will fall. And we won't say "Oh, well, I didn't know." Well, yes, there are bullish divergences raining everywhere and the structure is exhausting, so it will happen soon in my opinion. Hold on tight again. We shouldn't be surprised if we have a little dip to 121 for Solana. Will this little dip happen tonight with Nvidia's numbers, or rather tomorrow the day after tomorrow with the bad US macro numbers? It remains possible, and like its friends, Solana has the potential to reach 121. There's about, let's say, 300 million. Once it reaches there, well, after that, there will only be upside left. And to finish, XRP. Now, it's making a not-so-pretty little candle. Are we surprised? No. The objective of XRP was to reach the bottom of the structure here, the bottom of the wick around $2. Well, that's good. I repeated it every day. It's not about being a magician. It's the structure that said it. So well, the structure is often right. But no, the structure doesn't say I'm just going to break lower and push back. No, no, it can continue to fall. Especially since it had quite a bit of liquidity to seek. So it liquidated it well today. There's only about 1596 left. We see that it's drawing some bullish divergences too, this little XRP. Now, what wouldn't be good is tomorrow a candle like this that explodes this lower Bollinger band at $2, that wouldn't be good. That would mean widening Bollinger bands, and then it's back to hell, you see. So we shouldn't have the not-so-pretty little red candle, but on our side, you have Solana which might want to eat its gap at 121 and Ethereum at 285. So on the other hand, if XRP breaks its Bollinger band, it could spike, it. So it's a bit behind compared to the others, you see. So if it spikes, it could spike more than the others, unfortunately. But well, below 1.96, there's not much left to eat either. So what will really drive the direction strongly upwards or downwards? Well, it's the macro. Fortunately, it's the stock market. Well, today, it's okay. Nvidia +2, Google +4. So for now, it's showing some nice green. But we're cautious. We're cautious because tonight Nvidia's numbers will be released, and tomorrow Walmart will be released, and especially the NFPs will be released tomorrow. So for now, tonight at 8 PM, the end of the report, I think they'll put in it, apart from Robert René, they said, well, we ate chips and cocktails for a month and a half watching Netflix, here's our report, and others, it's not their fault, huh. We told them, get out, you're not paid. They said, well, you're not nice. Well, they said it's not our fault, it's the Democrats, it's not us. Well, well, so there you go, so for now the S&P 500 is being sold a bit, it opened green, it's being sold a bit in yellow. Here I put the level not to break. If tomorrow and tonight we have atrocious numbers and the Nasdaq and S&P 500 break this low, it won't be good, huh. It's heading towards the 200-day moving averages, and then we can say, ah, it's heading towards 84-85 for Bitcoin, maybe 80 already, and then it will really start to hurt your head, huh. Well, and not just your head, it will hurt. Well, here we see that the Ross stock 600 is on the verge of breaking this level. Tech Europe has done, yeah, no, it's okay, I'm already below. Well, the Asian market is also quite red, not pretty. Now, Gold, which made a small recovery today. Well, it's being sold a bit, but it's still above $4,000. So it's doing well. The barrel is a bit red today. Gas is still all the way up. Everything that is crypto-related continues to fall. Coinbase, bam, MicroStrategy, bim. Well, it's hurting, huh. All the miners, Marathon, boom, Riot, boom, Clean Spark, boom, HIVE, boom, Galaxy Digital, boom, and Block by Jack Dorsey, boom. Well, at least everyone is taking a hit, whether you're in crypto or in the stock market, everything related to crypto is taking a hit. In terms of the bond market, well, it's moving back towards defensive value. In short, they are clearly selling everything risky and moving back a bit into gold. They are moving back into the bond market, towards US Treasury bonds, especially US Treasury bonds. And they are moving back into the dollar. The dollar, which has just broken its 200-day moving average. We'll see if it closes above it. The problem is that, well, it's the restrictive monetary policy of America that is giving strength to the dollar, simply. You see well that they are no longer too keen on lowering rates. Well, all of that strengthens the dollar. So to calm the dollar, we would need injections. So giving $2,000 to everyone, that could help. Opening the taps, that could help. The Fed said, well, from December 1st, we're stopping tightening the balance sheet. So that means it will put a little bit of money back into the economy. Well, but for now, well, the dollar is strengthening, strengthening, strengthening. Can we blame it? Because the dollar has taken a hit for a long time. For a long time, you see. It has taken a hit since the beginning of the year, the dollar, huh. Here it is January 2025. It took a hit, it exhaled, you see. A little exhaustion that says exhaustion of the downtrend, at some point, it rebels a bit, you see. So we can't tell the dollar "You're not cool, you're not cool." Well, because all year, it was cool, you see. So we'll have to watch the dollar. So that's it, friends, for this little market update. I hope you enjoyed it. For those who want, we'll meet tonight at 9 PM for me to analyze all your cryptos. For the others, I say courage, friends. Big kisses to you too. Bye bye. [music] [music]