This Changes Everything...

Today's number, guys, is 300 billion. The geologically surveyed amount of barrels that Venezuela has according to the latest surveys. And now that Trump and the US has captured Maduro, it looks like there's a lot to discuss when it comes to oil markets, inflation, possible deflation, and everything else in 2026.

So, why is it then that Wall Street was already ahead of the curve on Friday, pushing prices higher on both oil services and energy stocks? And of course, if you've been watching this channel, it's been actually occurring for quite some time. In today's special weekend edition, we take a look at what this means for markets moving forward, investors and traders outlooks, and of course, what could happen to metals, and maybe more importantly than any of this, what's going on right now in the cryptoverse. Yes, stocks, commodities, and cryptos. A lot to unpack here in today's weekend video. See you soon, guys. Don't go anywhere.

Well, welcome back everyone to the special weekend edition of the Daily Show. My name is Thomas Atinson, and today we're discussing the macro, the data, and of course, what Wall Street doesn't want you to know about markets right now, including some of the big flows that we've already been suspecting for quite some time. Take a look here at just what happened with energy before any of this news moved and of course what's happened to oil services over the last month and a half. We suspected that this was possible and of course that somebody knew something that maybe the rest of the market wasn't talking about and it always goes to show it shows up in the price action and flow.

So, let's kick things off here with the story that of course everybody is probably well aware of and if you're not, the United States of America has successfully carried out a large-scale strike against Venezuela according to Donald J. Trump tweet here of course and President Nicholas Majuro is now held in custody. So, what does this mean for the markets? And we will be just discussing of course the markets and what Venezuela means when it comes to rare earth minerals and metals because yes Venezuela has some massive holdings. In fact I believe it's the largest holding I posted over here on X of barrels of crude oil but they do need a lot of refining and that's going to come back as we discuss it later on today's video is of course the refining action is very important when it comes to supply coming online. Also, another thing is proven natural gas holdings, billions of tons of iron ore, 7 to 8,000 plus tons of gold resources, the largest in Latin America, and hundreds of millions of tons of gold. So, it's clear. Oh, coal. I mean, imagine if it was hundreds of millions of tons of gold, we'd be all screwed, guys, cuz our gold would be going down at that point.

Now, let's take a look at what this could mean for all of us. So initially the markets have actually reacted by pushing price of oil up and this could be a short-term um headline that comes through which actually could be showing that inflation risk could be spiking. This is why markets are going to be very interesting over the next couple of weeks because first up we saw the weekend futures of oil actually spike up 1.75%. Now one thing is for sure is that we're going to see some massive storylines when it comes to oil companies. I actually found the crude chronicles over on X and he did an interesting research report here which shows that Exon Mobile and the amount of infrastructure put into Venezuela back in the 1970s and obviously Dutch Shell Group here as well mostly in Venezuela back in the day and really I think it's only Chevron that still actually does do business still in Venezuela. So what could happen here is we may see a lot of American businesses actually go back and say hey that's mine and some kind of deal to be done uh where of course people are speculating that maybe a lot more oil will actually come online in the future.

Now for now what does this mean in terms of the big trades and this is the question a lot of people have been asking and obviously we have to focus here on the investment side but the big one here is distressed debt I think and I posted over on X again links in the description down below uh that this particular company here uh Ashmore and I'm not saying go out and buy it or do anything guys was actually seeing bonds trading at 10 to 20 cents. Now this is interesting because of course debt is probably going to be restructured in the future depending on what happens and city sees that this could go to 40 to50. Now you got to be very careful in these markets. But it's interesting that everyone's of course jumped straight on the oil discussion and we will talk about that in a moment. But there is also some other things that people are looking at as well which is uh diluan flow here which is basically that Venezuela's ultraheavy crude needs a lot of refining and there are companies of course that do that and these are also some interesting concepts to have a look at. Another one is energy production and refining. You can see here Chevron and many others uh could be involved in that particular uh style of trade.

Now I did go through and have a look at Venezuela and asset recovery and reopening and ranked it using of course uh the chat GPT algorithm kind of things. But it was interesting because what it did was it goes through and actually found what were some of the largest overall producers in terms of still operating inside of Venezuela. Chevron here of course one of those. So it's going to be able to potentially move faster than the others. And then of course what happened to some of the other businesses that put in huge amounts of infrastructure and then some of that got taken from them. One of the big stories was actually Kelloggs which I found interesting and that was a business of course Kellogg's cornflakes and it turns out that uh they got shut out many years ago and ended up that Kelloggs were still produced maybe against trademark. So all sorts of things are happening and yeah it's a story that I'm sure will continue to eventuate.

Now, did we already suspect this for a while? Well, I've been discussing the idea that energy stocks in the US have been holding. You can actually see here Tavi Costa over on X also saw something like this, which was that we in 2025 obviously love gold. We then love silver. We then love platinum, palladium, we love copper, all of these things. Longtime viewers of the show will know this. We've been big fans of them. But we've seen a lot of those already been going. And one of our question marks coming into the back end of 2025 was what about energy stocks? Why is it that energy stocks were holding so well and that they hadn't actually broken up or down especially as barrels were going down? Well, now maybe we have one of our answers to that. And it does come back to of course what do we expect in 2026? Well, based on this, we expect a lot more volatility. Obviously, this is huge news. It's going to be something we discuss, I'm sure, for many weeks ahead and it has some dramatic implications on the world stage for everything that's going on. But it also happens during a midterm year. And you may be aware if you've been watching this channel that midterm years also tend to be extremely volatile. So, a lot of people are sending me messages this weekend. Tom, I think the stock market's going to open down. Tom, I think, you know, gold's going to skyrocket. Some people think gold's going to crash. This is the beautiful thing about markets is that people have differing opinions, but one thing's for sure is that we just had a pretty epic bull run year after year after year. That's three years of double digit gains. And that means that 2026 is likely, and you'll see an update soon from me, not to be as good as the previous years. In fact, there's a good chance that instead what it's going to be is a trader and position-based investors market where certain asset classes are going to be good to be in and certain ones potentially may not be. Have a look here at Grand Hawk's data. Obviously, of bull markets, the median has been reached uh just at the late end of 2025. We also know that midterm years tend to bring some extreme volatility. Even in the best of the midterm years, you'll notice that a lot of the time those particular downturns were almost double digits even in the best ones. So do expect a lot of volatility here guys for 2026 to continue.

So before we jump into more stuff when it comes to energy, the cross-sections and everything that we're seeing in the weekend market, including crypto, I did want to talk about the first trading day of the year. As you guys are aware, what happened specifically in January has massive implications for the rest of the year and the SPY actually gapped up more than.3% which we suspected it would because of course puts were where they were just a few days ago and um it actually did all right. Now when we see the spy come up this much you might think oh that's negative. Actually the stats here from Subu Trade tend to be kind of more on the positive side. So that's very interesting there. And obviously we've also seen kind of a difference of opinion here for a different stock which was NASDAQ kind of positions. So the S&P actually held pretty well but the NASDAQ and more importantly Tesla has actually now been down for seven days in a row. And it's pretty rare actually for Tesla to go down this many days in a row. Now if you've been watching our videos you would also know why this happened. One of the reasons was that we hit that 498 level. 495 498 was obviously our target there and we hit what we call a call wall an options level. Now once Tesla falls this many days in a row it actually does tend to usually be more to the bull side a few days later and you can actually see here that sometimes it has some pretty epic rebounds. This is again a bit of a cherryick stat but some interesting reads here from back in the past. So be interesting to see whether Tesla holds that low.

Now, we also do still have a ton of puts in the system. I suspect that the news of this weekend will get a lot of people kind of polarized and therefore potentially bearish on the markets as well. And that we do have, remember, a lot of puts in the market right now. You're going to see them show up as we look at the markets very soon. So, why is that important? Well, when we have this many puts in the market, it does tend to actually stabilize the low, which at the moment could be around 6,800, and you'll see that soon. We also have a lot of people buying NASDAQ stock, including a ton of insiders. So, this will be again a story that we continue to watch throughout 2026.

So, where do things get even weirder? Well, one of the weird things was something I actually posted just 2 days ago, which was that Bitcoin started to look really decent. And I got quite a few comments that actually said, "Tom, you're a moron." And I said, "Well, that might mean it's even better than I expected, guys." because when people have really strong opinions obviously especially against the price action that tends to make me more bullish. Well, interestingly enough, uh we had here SBIT which is ProShares ultrashort Bitcoin ETF. Someone's been trading the range pretty well for this and they just closed out or maybe they even bought in one of their positions here and you can see they've kind of traded the range in more recent times. So this is clearly a large darkpool trader which is of course pretty much a huge fund placing large bets on both the buy and the sell side on esbit. Now, why I think it's more important than this is we've actually broken out a little bit on Bitcoin. And as we're about to close a weekly trade, a weekly close candle, this is a very significant breakout because you may remember that we've been discussing the idea that Bitcoin has been at that huge huge level of a squeeze zone, especially if it breaks past 90,800, which it is trying to hold above at this stage. number of weeks also for sentiment surveys do remember people just turned super bullish which means that bears have almost all gone from the markets so although there's a lot of puts right now do get ready for a volatile first quarter somewhere between Jan and March we expect a pretty large level of volatility more to come on that very soon also do continue to watch the US dollar throughout this year and do remember that a lot of people are all in on markets as probably no risk has really been priced in to markets. The VIX in particular and as you can see here the Bank of America uh survey results especially for cash on hand shows that there's not much going around at this stage. Now another thing that's worth noting is something we've had in the video for the last month which is this one here from Blue Curtic which shows that we are around here at this point. So while we expect market structure to hold for now, do expect volatility again on the horizon. And we've mentioned this several times. Another important factor is as well is do remember with when it comes to crypto, we've gone above that 90,800 level which has the most amount of liquidity on it. And that exposes of course these previous highs at 95K, 94 to 95K. And if we get through those, you know, good chance that we're going back to 102 106, which we'll talk more about soon.

So, there's a lot going on this weekend and there's a lot to continue to unpack here in the video. So, let's start off here with the options that are holding this market and what's going on really with the stock market after this news. So, I checked out the week futures. They don't tend to mean that much. Obviously, we saw barrels up almost 2%. But actually, stocks were pretty much flat. And you can see here when we look at the S&P 500, the advanced decline line overall is still on the general trajectory up which means that breadth has been pretty good and it means that this market is kind of dull and it is rotating. Now most of the money probably has been going into other sectors. talked about healthcare, we've talked about oil services, uh we've talked about metals and minerals for quite some time, but there's nothing here, especially when it comes to the US 500, that shows us on the futures market or the normal market, that anything is really kind of negative just yet.

Now, let's have a look at the options levels because you're going to see a very clear line in the sand here for options, which currently seems to be at around 6,800 and 6850. And you're going to see 6,800 come up a lot, especially for the first half of January. And notice here, 6850 is also coming up. Huge amounts of puts, which at least initially do tend to give bounces. And if the market does manage to get through those guys, it usually starts to waterfall. So that's when you get extreme volatility because the big uh companies, they have to start hedging their position and it creates what we call a waterfall effect. And at the moment, we're not seeing that. We've obviously got 6850 pretty much on the close. So, we do still expect that at this stage the bulls are more in control of the stock market. When it comes to Tesla, we got back to that five 430 440 kind of area. And you'll see here that 430 is the big level for puts this week. So, that may act as some support along with that 7-day down trade stat. And that Nvidia has been rallying up and this is coming off of course the double bottom that we'll look at in terms of a pretty solid pattern. So the options market has been doing all right.

Now to the big one though, which is of course what is going on with Bitcoin. So IBIT ended up closing at 51. And we've talked a lot about how 4847 was going to act as a bit of a support. Now that turned out to be around the price range of around 86,000. And now that we're getting past this potentially past this 51 level, you can see what's happening, guys. As and if it keeps going up, what's going to happen? We're going to go into positive gamma once again for options. And it's time and time and time again that we see this. It's funny and not so funny. When you're making vids, when you're talking about markets, the popular opinion is often not the one that is actually going to do well. And I remember, you know, especially here with crypto is it's just interesting to see this come through. Now 55 is of course the big question mark and that's what we're going to need to see here on IBIT ultimately but certainly going through 51 that's going to start positive gamma and it could start to feed upon itself in the gold markets 400 is the put level. So right now gold is right on that important kind of level for will it continue to ramp up or is it about to start to waterfall and price action I think on the long term still looks really good but the short term may be a little bit more questionable.

All right let's jump on over here to what's happening in the broad markets. We'll start off here with some of the concerns or the good signs. First up dollar opening. I think this is going to be quite important for the markets. We're going to need to watch very closely what's happening on the US dollar. And for 2026, you want to have this trend line uh lined up because I think if this starts to break down, then we could be seeing real weakness coming through for the rest of the year on the dollar. The second thing that we want to be doing is we want to be looking at short-term and long-term yields. So, we can see here short-term yields here for the US closed at 3.47. Long-term yields though, which are more defined by the market, actually have been going up. So, this is suggesting that at some point in the future, we're going to need to see the Fed actually hike, and this is a huge difference between what the market has been expecting, which is tons of cuts, and whether we're actually going to get them or not. Now, remember, it was expected there's going to be four to five cuts. Now, it may only be two. So, that's going to be a big story line in terms of uh particularly for barrels of oil over this next year.

Now, speaking of which, we already suspected that there was an internal bull in oil barreling and more importantly in oil stocks. Now, why have we said that? Because energy stocks haven't been going down. Now, they haven't really been going up, although oil services has, but they haven't been going down. So, now we may know why. And you can clearly see here that we're starting to see breakouts. And I think there's going to be a ton of trade on energy stocks through this week, which you may or may not want to be part of. It's going to be probably one of those things where it's a bit of a crapshoot, for lack of a better term. And there's going to be a lot of people speculating each side. There'll be both inflation pressure people, deflation, and then the question is which one of these companies is actually going to do the best out of it. Uh then there's all sorts of other things going on. So you got to be a little bit careful uh when you're looking at these. But I think overall if we see a close above let's say 4650 here on Angie stocks that actually bodess pretty well for the sector and the sector hasn't done anything for a very long time now oil services that actually has been improving against the spy which we first pointed out uh a little while ago about a month and a half ago and members of our private community actually would be aware that we were turning very bullish on it back here in August. So, it's actually been going for a while. And you might think, well, you know, is it that good? It's actually been pretty good. So, you know, 19% up, I would argue not too bad, not too shabby, not too shabby on a decent little sector there. And even members like you guys, you know, watching these videos, you would know that it's not the first time I've bought up oil services on the channel for a while. So, it just shows you that again, Wall Street tends to know things before the press does. And as I say, if it's in the press, it's in the price. So, it's kind of like what we're getting at with silver at the moment. You know, silver, yes, it's a great metal. Yes, we love it, but at the same time, everyone's talking about now. So, it's become a much tougher trade than it was.

Now oil barrels will be interesting to look at as well. Both Brent and of course crude here. We'll be watching both of those very closely in the Monday open. Don't want to speculate too much on those cuz at the moment the trend is obviously down. So, we need to see it break up if it is going to do that. And I think there'll be some trades there. And gold is playing with that very key level of support and actually looks quite negative uh when you're looking at it here on the short-term charts. Not worried about long-term guys, but you can see here the double rejection off 4,400 which puts a lot of pressure on here. So I think 4,400 plus actually could be a really cool squeeze level. We haven't seen that just happen yet. Platinum did bounce off the 20 daily. We suspect that these are all kind of in a tight range at the moment. and silver is obviously extremely volatile at the moment which means that we need a new clear direction. Um so I would say the best trade is yet to come on silver in terms of there'll be another one coming soon. Now Nvidia also broke out 185 plus obviously that's positive gamma is a double bottom. This is not to do with the news this weekend but obviously it is seeing some flows into it. So that looks a little bit better and Tesla has come down to the major support area. So I think around 430 is actually a very big support for Tesla. It's a very important level. You know, first up we're talking about 450. No bid. We got now what is it? 7 days in a row down. Generally it does like to buck the trend sometime around here. A lot of the short-term indicators will be oversold. So we got island reversal to the downside. Around here is kind of the middling point. This is probably where a bid's going to come in if it's going to.

Another story that we started to talk about last week, and I didn't even get a chance to do it this weekend, which I wanted to, but we'll do it soon, is Chinese stocks start to find some flow. And of course, that's coming off the back of some pretty big money starting to go into that as well from the central banks. NASDAQ, you can see here, is up, down, up, down, up, down. Not the best sector right now. Again, when everyone's talking about it, it's not that interesting. Price action has shown the same signs. and US 2K, which is the Russell, actually came down to support and started to find buyers. So, what you can clearly see here is that if we're looking at the Dow, it looks pretty good. Looks pretty strong. If we're looking at the S&P, it looks pretty strong. Didn't really come down. It kind of made new alltime high. We're looking at the NASDAQ and the Russell. The Russell looks all right, but it's just kind of finding support. The NASDAQ is kind of just holding. It's not doing anything too interesting. But what is interesting is of course Bitcoin which is pressuring a very important level right now. A lot of people have been speculating on Bitcoin for quite some time. It's actually been sitting now if you can believe it for almost 2 months and doing nothing. But this is a significant breakout. We broke 90,800. We're obviously now in the potential here of squeezing some shorts out uh that are going to be there. And a lot of people obviously do have shorts on this. And the reason we know that is because a lot of people had this as a flag to the downside. So if the market keeps squeezing up, especially now if it breaks that 94 and a half, it could really start to squeeze towards 102 106. So it's a very important weekly close here on the Bitcoin and um a very important level in general. And you can see here we've got dogeis. Maybe this is decision towards the upside. Flow actually looking better on Bitcoin than we've seen for ages. I mean this is this has been like a month before we've seen flow look this good. Um this is the first time we've seen flow at all really for ages. So there you go. Maybe something to be taken into consideration there. Also, Ethereum, you can see here, starting to show some signs of pickup again, breaching through some of the areas where we're pretty sure people would have stop losses. Another thing to note as well is a lot of people always go on about, you know, certain um certain indicators and one of those is going to ultimately be, you know, your 200. This is an EMA, so I'm not going to get it exactly, but you're going to be looking for your 200. And a lot of people are going to be looking for the daily 200 to be uh recovered as well. So there are, you know, more things to happen for Bitcoin, but ultimately uh some great price action there off the lows and of course some important things coming through there.

Now, when it comes to this week, guys, we do have ISM PMI on Monday. That's going to be super overshadowed by the other news that we've got going on. And then obviously we have uh some CPI data for Australia, where I'm from. But we've got some more PMI coming on Wednesday and then we go down here and we get the big one which is going to be non-farm payroll. So although this week is going to be drawn out in terms of so much news going on, I would always say to people, you know, follow the price. It's one of the things we talk about here. It's about patience. This game investing and trading is about having a great temperament, not too much emotion in any of these things. And you know, focusing more on the flow than anything else. the narrative is usually going to be wrong. Instead, what we're better off doing is focusing on what we do know and what the market is actually doing in terms of the price flow and where are they putting their money, not what they're saying on the big TVs.

All right, guys. I hope you have a great one. I hope you have a good weekend. Obviously, a lot to discuss and unpack in recent next days. Didn't have time to go through it because I still am on holiday technically, but I had to get this one out to you. So, have a fantastic weekend and uh yeah, a lot to get into. I'll see you on the Monday live if you are coming for it. Bye for now, everybody.