Transcription
Hello everyone. Hope that you had a wonderful weekend. I'm pretty sure that some of you had a good trading day today. As you know, one of the few models that I've been, you know, teaching you guys, you know, without you basically knowing that I am, which, you know, I will, you know, make loud and clear right now, right? So anyways, before that, today, you can see that we have no, you know, high impact news events, and this will [Music] be, you know, how we will be going forward, right? If there is no high impact news event on Monday, then the live stream will be Monday afternoon. But if we have news on Monday, then we'll do it on Sunday, right? Because there is no reason for us to be doing anything in the market on Monday unless what happened today happened.
What happened today? There was a correlation between Friday, the past Friday, and today, right? So there was sequential SMT or SSMT between last week's high, or Friday's high of last week, and the high of the day today, right? In regards to the S&P 500, NASDAQ, and the Dow Jones. So tomorrow, we have high impact news events at 8:30 and 10:00 a.m., right? So tomorrow will not be the best day to trade. The best day to trade will be Wednesday, you know, obviously. We all know this. It's CPI, and that's when we should get most of the volatility, right? So tomorrow, you know, people usually say, um, do not trade the day before CPI or whatever. But as long as there's a setup, right, you can take it, right? Due to the fact that I'm pretty sure that most of you here will not be risking all of your account on one trade, right? On Wednesday, as I just said, there will be CPI, so we'll have a lot of volatility entering the market. The market will be, will become one-sided, right? So after CPI has released, right, if you manage to get in, that's fine. But if not, the market should be, you know, going in the same direction for at least a few days, right? So there will be sentiment shift, and that is what usually happens on CPI, right? The market usually builds volatility on both sides, buy side and sell side, before that, which, you know, is something that is evident when looking at the interest rate trials, right? On Thursday, now, it will be, you know, pretty straightforward. If the H low that, you know, formed on the day of CPI is run out, and they re-test SMT, there will be a trade, right? We will be monitoring these things closely this week, right? Monday, if, if you did nothing today, then, you know, you should be looking to do something come tomorrow, Wednesday, and Thursday, right? Pay attention to the markets. Look for what we talk about, and I'll be here to, you know, highlight those things. And of course, as I've said before, we will be here 8:00 a.m. sharp on Wednesday, right? So it will be here Monday to turn the market before Wednesday and studying what happens to the marketplace before and after CPI is released, right? So that one will be a bit lengthy, won't be a very short live stream.
Here on my screen, you guys can see that I have the index futures triad up, right? And last week, you know, that we have been on point last week, right? In when it comes to the index futures triad, right? So first of all, when price was here, and let me cross, right? Literally here, right here on this candle, right? This is when we had the first live stream of last week, right? So we expected price to just go up, right? We did not expect price to fall back here into this fair value gap. And there's a reason for that, right? We just expected price to go up. And, you know, before going forward with what I have to say, why didn't we expect price to fall within, you know, below into this fair value gap? This is due to the fact that the week prior to this, right, whereas we had the bottom form here, there was price traded up, traded up. There was a correlation between the gaps, right, here, right, right here. So we had this gap right here, which all of it, in its entirety, was formed below this high, right? It was all formed below this high and below this gap right here. So hopefully, and if, you know, you don't get this, you know, we will obviously be talking about these things over and over and over again until you do, right? So here, right here, we have this gap. And this isn't even the, you know, main reason today is just, you know, us doing our analysis, talking about what we expect of price. The main, you know, pools of liquidity that could trigger a reversal if price runs through, that's the main thing for today. Anyways, here, right? So we have this gap. One, two, right here. Let me do both of them, right? So on the left side of the curve, right, we have two gaps. Right? On the right side of the curve, right, we have one gap. Below, below the second gap, there is one gap, right? So this gap is in the middle of these. Here we have two gaps on the south side of the curve. Trying to do this, I don't know, take up too much of your time with this simple thing. Two gaps on this side of the curve. Here, there's one gap here, right? Looking at the Dow, we have two gaps on this side of the curve. And here, how much gaps do we have here? We have three gaps. So this in itself is, this in itself is showing, this in itself is showing a cracking correlation of the sell side and the buy side of the curve, right here, as you guys can see, right? So here, there's two gaps, here, there's two gaps, here, there's three gaps. So here, when we have the three gaps, here, you don't really have to pay attention to the one in the middle. But this alone shows you that something is out of order, which equates to a cracking correlation or an upcoming shift of sentiment, right? The liquidity here is unbalanced. The liquidity here, the gaps were made and left this way on purpose. This is not random, right? Right? However, here, where we have this gap form on the, the first gap to form on the buy side of the curve, the formation of this gap was completed above all three of these gaps. So even if there was just two, and the highest gap on the sell side of the curve was, you know, overcame by the first gap on the buy side of the curve, this would, you know, indicate that we would be going higher. We will not be falling back, you know, into these, into this gap right here. Also, we had, you know, sequential intermarket sequential SMT right here, and sequential SMT between the weeks, right? So this is one of the reasons why, and and I just answered the question, you know, why, why didn't I expect the price, you know, to fall within, you know, this gap right here? Because of this right here. Also, due to the fact that even though we had all of this happening here, we had price closing above this high, right? Price closing above this high here, right? This high right here, in regards to the, you know, index futures triad. I'm, I'm talking about the NASDAQ right here, right? The NASDAQ. So this gap right here, and let me use the cross, right? This gap right here, on the closure of this candle, that's when the gap was, you know, instigated. This is the candle that, you know, had price, you know, telling us that we, this would be a fair value gap. So even if when we had this candle right here close below here, and this one closed below here, in regards to the S&P 500, and the, and then we had this candle in the Dow closing above all of the gaps on the south side of the curve, then even before the formation of the candle which occurred, you know, afterwards, we would, we could expect that this would be a gap already, even though it was not a gap yet, if you understand. But we would expect, what we could expect that this would, this would already be a gap due to, due to the closure of the candles in regards to the inefficiencies on the sell side of the curve. So anyways, right here, right? And now let's talk about the NASDAQ, right? So here, look, and where my mouse is, right? So here, we expect the price will just go higher. And and now look at the Dow here. What do you expect? Just higher prices, higher prices, higher prices. Here, what do you expect? Higher price. Did we say we expect price to pull back? No, we did not say we expect price to pull back, right? We just expected higher prices. We expected the Dow to take, you know, take out a certain pool of liquidity. And due to the fact that the Dow, you know, was supposed to go higher, then everything was supposed to follow, also, right? During the center of the week, where we had price, you know, pull back a bit, right here, right here, had price pull back a bit. Was this bearish? No. Why not? There was no correlating correlation here. So as you guys can see, right here, right? This high right here that formed was not taken, you know, by any of the candles prior to this one right here. So price dropped. And once you see this happen, price dropped here, and then right here, there is no, you know, sequential SMT which caused price to drop, then you should know that we will be going higher, right? Here we had price drop and right here. And I'm going to zoom in right here, right? So let's go to the one-hour time frame, which is what we use when we are studying the, and we're studying the weekly cycle, which is comprised of these. So right here, right? You can see this, right? We have a higher low here, and again here, we have a higher low again, and then here, we have a higher low again. So by looking at this, like, what would be the reason? Did you say that price turns where it cracks? There is no cracking correlation here, right? There's no cracking correlation here. That's, you know, what the regular person would say. But there is, there is intermarket SSMT, right? And we'll get to that. And that is the main reason why during the live stream, which, you know, you can watch over again, and we'll be attempting to, you know, have that accuracy live, you know, again, right? We won't be perfect, but we, we will be right more times than not, right? So when price was literally here, and we were on the minute and the five-minute time frame, I believe, right here, was here on this candle right here, while price was literally trading down, right? Literally this candle right here, and, you know, we're looking at the S&P 500, and that was the asset which I was focused on, right? So when price was trading down on this candle, this candle was black. What do we expect? Higher prices, right? That was what we expect. Did we expect price to go above here, then reverse? No. Did we expect price to go above here, then turn? No. We just expected price to go higher and higher and higher and higher for the, you know, remainder of the week, right? So here you can see that there was about, let me see how much points for the, for the week. I am, I reading this correct? This, this would be how much? 56 points. Yes, 56 points, right? Which is decent, right? That's decent. Throw a just one contract and that it's over, you're good. So, and we got this right here, this move. And first of all, everything that we talked about before, you know, led to this going in this direction. But the main thing which, you know, gave this away, which is why I literally came live and I was just like, here, higher, higher, higher, higher, higher. And I had, you could hear my voice, there was just, you know, almost this sense of cockiness, which is not something that I like about myself. But it was just, you know, me having no fear, you know, talk in here that someone's going to record it and then post it and then they're wrong, you know, it was almost certain, right? And this is one of the reasons why I say that Thursday is the best day to trade, right? Thursday is the best day to trade in my opinion, right? So you, you should already know, right? Thursday's model, every day has its own model. Thursday's model and Monday's model, which, you know, played out today, which we will talk about soon, right? However, here, let's go back here, right here, the one-hour time frame. Let's go to the interest rate triad, right? One-hour time frame, and we'll be looking at this. So first, we're going to look at this, and we can literally just use one of them, right? Which is the bond futures, due to the fact that the only, you know, reason why we even look at this is just for, you know, the confirmation, right? This is the only reason why we look at this. We look at the bond market or the 10-year note or the 5-year note is just for confirmation of our sequential SMT or, you know, just to see a crack in correlation. So here, and I'm just doing this right here, right? And we'll look at the cracking correlation which occurred between the index futures market and the Forex market afterwards as well, right? So this could be confusing to some people, right? Whereas here, you can see that there was not a significant low, right? On Thursday of last week, which could lead to a rally, right? But I'm showing you this right here to show you that the only thing that matters is the closures, right? So whenever you have something like this, you should not, you know, be confused. So the lowest close, right here, where would it be? It would be here, right? Right here. And that is not showing as bright as I would like it to. So let's use, what should I use? I'll just use this, right? So the, that's this right here, is the lowest close of Wednesday. What you need to understand is that as long as, right, the, the close here is lower than this close right here, that there's a cracking correlation, you know, given, given that it is supported in another market, right? So it doesn't matter if, you know, prices ran through a low, even if the close here, right, we have this close here, but here we had this one, you know, being the base of the failure swing, right? So here we have Thursday, here we have Wednesday. Thursday failed to break below Wednesday's low, whereas even earlier in the day, right, you know, looking at the S&P 500 right now, we had price above this low. Earlier in the day, we had price below this close, right? So here, when we see price just trending lower and trending lower, right? Below the low of, way below the low of Wednesday, this is Thursday, way below the low of Wednesday, we should be expecting what? Higher prices already. We should, we, we should be seeing this as price searching for, you know, a bottom, price searching for support, right? So here, we just had, we just had price just continue to continue to melt, right? Just going lower, going lower, going lower. Whereas here, in S&P 500, where were we? We were above this low, which was the low of Wednesday. So we could, lit, we should literally be anticipating higher prices by seeing this leg go lower. Do you understand? This leg was going lower, where, when was this leg going lower? Above the low of Wednesday. Here we had price just trending lower, where, below the close of Wednesday. So, you know, this is some, this is a way, whereas, you know, once you see this happen, this leg right here is important. So you would take the opening price of, you know, here, like so, right? The opening price of here, and this price right here, once we, you know, get above this swing high, this is the real, you know, a real market structure shift, given the fact that, as I've said, right, we've been trending lower, and we had sequential SMT here, right? And we will get back to this, right? There are more things here to be deciphered than, you know, what's already here, what you're seeing right now. But, you know, just to save time, now we will look at the real, and, you know, easy crack and correlation to see, right? That one was, you know, a bit difficult, took some more time to explain, more time than I would like to use. So here we have Wednesday, and we have Thursday, right? Wednesday, Thursday. So this high right here was, what? Wednesday's high. Pretty simple to understand. This is just a, you know, normal SMT. However, this time, what are we using? This time, we are using the Forex triad and comparing it to the index futures triad, right? So here we had price, the dollar take out Wednesday's high. The S&P 500 failed to take out this low right here, which was found on Wednesday. So this was a cracking correlation, right? You could directly be, you know, comparing the Euro to this, due to the fact that the Euro, and of course, the Great British pound, they move in the same direction, you know, on low, on high probability days with the index futures triad. So here you can see that even though, right here, I was just being bullish, right? I just didn't have, you know, enough time. These, the fact that, you know, I was looking at one-minute charts, five-minute charts, and I was trying my best not to flunk in front of everyone, right? So I didn't have enough time to be, you know, showing you guys this chart as well, even though, you know, I was looking at that chart. But I have multiple monitors, right? Which is what it's, it's not only what you see, you know, on the screen at times is what I'm looking at. Even right now, I'm looking at different monitors and different screens. So here, right? We had the dollar, the Euro, not the dollar, the Euro taking out Wednesday's low. This was a cracking correlation. Why was this a correlation? Looking here, and listen, this is important, right? This is important. This right here, you know, which I am talking about, this is what you call a direct cracking correlation, right? This one seems invisible to everyone else, but this one causes the market to turn. This one is very explosive, right? So here we are. What are we doing? Let's retrace our steps. We are comparing the FX triad to what? The index futures triad. Ultimately, you know, you can use these alone, but, you know, I always like to get at least the bond market in the mix, right? At least, you know, that's me. But you don't need that. But listen now, right? Whenever you have the US dollar, the Euro, and the Great British pound, right? Moving in sync. So here you have the US dollar take this high. Here you have the Euro take this low. Here you have the Great British pound take this low. Now, what do you have here? Failure swings. Do you see where we're getting at? The S&P 500 and the NASDAQ and the Dow, they're moving in tandem. The US dollar, the Euro, and the Great British pound, what are they doing? They're moving in tandem. So here we have a higher high, right? Basically, this is turtle soup. All, all of this right here is turtle soup. All of this right here is a stop hunt, stop hunt, stop hunt, stop hunt. Here, what do we have? Very soon, very soon, very soon. Now, right? We remember if this theory is correct, right? And what do I will say? What you, which asset usually gives, you know, gives everything off, right? Which, which asset usually tips its hand? For the index futures, it will be the Dow Jones. For the FX triad, it will be the Great British pound. And for the interest rate triad, it will be the five-year, 10-year note. No, the five-year note, sorry about that. Here, what do we have? And we talked about this before, but you do remember, which you should, right? Here, look, price falling before falling below the 50% of the range. And here again, what do we have? Price falling below the 50% of the range. And here, what do we have? Price failing to fall below the 50% of the range, failing, which, you know, failing to close as well. Do you see this? This in itself is a correlation again. How do you know that this is, right here, the Great British pound failed to close below this low? You see that? The Euro closed below this low. Here, dollar closed above this high. So this in itself, as well, is a correlation. Because price did not close below the low. But even without even focusing on the closure, just due to the fact that we had turtle soup occurring, you know, between all of the members of the FX triad, and failure swings occurring between all of the index futures triad, that in itself is important, right? You will have people, you know, that are looking for SMT, not even seeing it. They can't see it. Why can't they see it? They don't know about this. They do not know that you should directly be comparing eight assets. Three of them from each triad should be mirroring each other. But there should be an opposite correlation, you know, something of a sense, which they don't even know exists. So the Euro, the pound, and the dollar should be doing what? Taking a high or a low, right? The index futures triad, S&P 500, NASDAQ, Dow Jones, what should they be doing? What should they be doing? And, you know, this is something that will, you know, usually happen. Something that occurs in price action, which I've been getting questions about like even two months ago. But, you know, we need to build upon information, right? We need to make it easy to understand. And, you know, this phenomenon will occur more times than not on Thursdays. It does happen during other times of the week, right? But it is more, what I would say, prominent. It's more important. It's more explosive. This is what really pushes the market, right? It really gives it a big push. Just as we saw, you know, chop, we saw all of this right here, slow, choppy price action, and then we just had price expand. This is what usually happens, right? So this is direct intermarket sequential SMT. The layman, the person who is new, will not, you know, know how to differentiate between them. For this, you don't care about the closures. It's literally just, you know, okay, let me look at the index futures triad. Everything okay? Failure swing, failure swing, failure swing. Then you look here on the FX trade. Okay, dollar took this high, Euro took this low, Great British pound took this low. It's time to, time for the market to turn. High speed. Anyways, right? We will, you know, couch upon that more, but time is going by, right? So here, right? This is the Monday model, right? Whereas we talk about this a lot, right? We always talk about this, and you always see this happen. Like, be honest, like, how many times have you seen this happen? Now, does it fail sometimes? I'd say, yeah, some of, some of the times. But even if you're not, you know, versed in this, you probably won't see it failing more than, you know, 30% of the time. If you, and that's just for people who are new. If you actually, you know, use this, focus on this, you could literally be trading Monday alone. Not saying that you should, I'm just saying that you could, right? So here, and remember, we talked about this. This is what makes Monday expand. Why when is Monday X? You know, people say, but sometimes it doesn't accumulate. Sometimes, you know, this, this happens to create volatility. Remember where price cracks, it turns. So here we had price doing what? Cracking. We had the S&P 500, right? We had here, failure to take this high. Dow, failure to take this high. No, not Dow, NASDAQ, failed this high right here, which was what? Friday's high. Then that Thursday, we had price closing above this high, which is what caused price to fall. Do you understand? This is what caused, you know, price to fall a lot. The cracking correlation between Friday and Monday. Why did Dow fall? That's why. And what happened right here? What is this? Let me see it in the chat. What is this? I don't even want to say it. What am I showing you? What is this? And remember, when you're using the weekly cycle, you need the one-hour time frame, right? You got to be focusing on the one-hour time frame. Yes, this is a precision swing point. Everyone knows this is a precision swing point. Listen very closely. When you see something like this happening, right? And you're using the correct time frame, the one, the one-hour time frame, the weekly cycle, there's a cracking correlation between days of the week. Then, and this is special, right? It has to be a one-hour precision swing point. Write that down. Weekly cycle, one-hour precision swing point. Daily cycle, 15-minute precision swing point. 90-minute cycle, 5-minute precision swing point, right? Right? So yes, again, this is what caused price to fall, right? And isn't it crazy? No one who talks about precision swing points, no one, no one, no one has ever talked about this. And people won't even understand. You're supposed to be like, you know, they're just going through charts, just trying to find the right one. But they don't know that there's a sequence that this must happen. There's a sequence that it must follow. That, and they just won't know. It'll just seem like nonsense to them. Why no one talks about this? No one ever. It's like, so it's like, it's not like, you know, what Michael would say, no one ever thought about gaps before me. And then you can go in a book and find it, you know, when he was like a teenager or something, I don't know, 20 years old, before he even, you know, got big. It's not, you know, someone can, you know, market make your buy models. You know, you can't say that. Wyckoff, all this, no one did. No one did. No one did. And people will in the future, I'm pretty sure. Like whenever, like I, like, just stop posting on the internet. Whenever I'm just like in the group, whenever we, you know, get our together, get, get rid of. But I think that we're getting rid of most of the leeches, right? Got rid of, like, you know, feel them already personally, which is good. But yeah, anyways, no one ever talked about this. No one, no one knows what this is. It's simple as that. No one knows where it works or when it works. And here, right? You guys can see that this Monday right here, right? This Monday is, you know, it occurred right after. So I want to take all of this off of the chart, right? This occurred right after the first week of the month, right? So remember, what is this right here? Tell me, what is this? This right here, like, what is between Q1 and Q2? That's the true open of the month. Do you see it? Um, you know, I think this is literally elementary stuff. Like, true week open, Monday, like, you should always be focusing on it. Like, of course. But this is when it works, right? This is when it works. Also, here, what is this again? This is the four-week. This is the four-hour time frame. You're going to learn something cool now. And it's literally everything here is based on what? What is this? What is this candle? What is this candle right here? It's, it's a precision swing point. A four-hour precision swing point. Between what? What happened here? This was a correlation as well, right? But what's within this precision swing point? Scroll down again. Another precision swing point. Is there? Wow, really? So there's a one-hour precision swing point, you know, four-hour precision swing point. So you're telling me that I should wait for another precision swing point to form within a higher time frame precision swing point? Of course, it's all fractal. We never thought about it before. Is there a 15-minute precision swing point? Check. We've been here for four to five minutes. And, you know, time to see where the liquidity rests. So here, right? Whenever we have this, right? We're looking at price, right? And the one that looks the choppiest here is the one that we should focus on because this will give, you know, price a reason to reverse due to the fact that it has the clearest, the most clear, it's clearest, your word, I don't know. It has the most clear buy side and sell side liquidity, right? So this right here is already, is showing us that we have, you know, volatility coming our way. This right here, as well. And remember, in regards to the triads, right? We should always be focusing on, well, in regards to the index futures triad, we should be focusing on the S&P 500 and NASDAQ mostly, right? Soon, right? We will [Music] be, you know, talking about how we can use the Dow, right? There are ways that you can use the Dow to see market moves beforehand, as the Dow will point towards where the market should be going. And then there's a cracking correlation, right? We will talk about that as well. So we have, right? Look, let's look at the S&P 500. We have here, equity. Here is this high probability? No, right? The move that, that should happen already happened, which was, you know, orchestrated by the Dow. The NASDAQ, what happened? It's within a range. This is not high probability price action, right? So here, what would we wait for? Price to take either side of liquidity or show us, you know, a lower time frame sequence to SMT followed by a precision swing point. Do you need the precision swing point? No, a precision swing point could be replaced by a fair value gap fill, basically, right? So here you can see this line and this line. What, what am I annotating? Buy side, sell side liquidity. Buy side and sell side liquidity, just, you know, equal highs and lows. We will be, you know, looking for a cracking correlation. We'll be waiting to see how the market will be moving, you know, before CPI tomorrow. We'll be, well, I expect you guys to be, you know, focusing on the New York session and seeing how the market reacts, or seeing if there was a significant amount of liquidity left from London which gets pierced, then is there a sequential after that? Then focus on how price moves here, right? You can see that, let's look at the British pound, right? We have a significant amount of liquidity above this high, right? And we have a significant amount of liquidity below this low, right? US dollar, we have a lot of liquidity here above this high, right? However, we are still range bound, right? Between, let's look at the dollar, between this low and this high. It would be, you know, near to equilibrium, right? But there is liquidity here and liquidity here. So we need to see, you know, price push above either, you know, pools of liquidity or below, which is here and below here, which a news event, high news event will give us, right? That push. But for now, what do we do? We wait. We'll be updating our charts. You guys already know what to look for, right? But, you know, if there is something, you know, obvious, then of course, we will discuss it. And, you know, before going, I just have to share this one last thing. So you guys already know what an SMT fill is, right? This is in another type of correlation, whereas whenever this happens, right? You will not expect, you know, price to fill the gap right here. Now, let's look at the Euro. Wow, this one is going to be long. I'll just make it 50 minutes. I'll just make it 50 minutes. That's it. Then there's this guy asking this one question. I'll just answer it. Look at this guy. Study this in price afterwards. Live, live price action, not just, you know, you can backtest and study it, of course. But, so here we have this gap being left open. This one was utilized. This one right here utilized, and we pushed above these equal highs, right? You can see that. Now, let's look at the British pound here. There was no gap, gap left. No gap was left. Price just wicked into this, you know, what people call a called UT block, then continued to higher, right? You can see that whenever you see something like this happen, right? And price forms a high here, falls, don't expect this gap to be filled. Like, it won't be filled before liquidity on the opposite, on the, in the opposite direction, right? Not south side, but buy side liquidity is right through, right? So that's it for today. I think we've been here for 15 minutes. 15 minutes, which is a long time. So we will be back when? 8:00 a.m. sharp. And someone's asking me a question. I will answer it. Last thing is they just want SMT with precision swing point. Yes, you can do that. Just make sure that if you're using the weekly cycle, it's a cracking correlation between days of the week and a one-hour precision swing point, right? That's what you should be looking for. Then if you go down, you know, a time frame, the 15-minute or the 5-minute, you just need at least one correlation to be in line with the higher time frame, right? Then you'll be fine. Please study this. Use proper risk management. Don't be afraid to lose. Don't, you know, get a heart attack when you're going in drawdown. Manage your risk properly, and you'll be fine. Definitely, you'll be fine. Don't worry. Think before you trade. And I hope that you have a, you know, wonderful week and a good time studying this, going over this. Go back over the last stream too. That one was a good one too. Yeah. And we'll be back again 8:00 a.m. sharp, Wednesday sharp. That one will be a long, long one as well. Have a wonderful [Music] day.