Transcription
The easiest trick in fantasy football over the past few years has been identifying the worst offenses in the league with sports books and then avoiding those running backs and wide receivers in fantasy. We just talked about the wide receiver avoids, but I want to get to the running backs. And in this video last year, the running backs we decided to avoid based on the data were Ashton Genty, who was around one pick. Obviously, you lost to your league if you drafted him, Tony Pard, Bree Hall, Tyron Tracy, Alvin Kabara, and Quinn Sean Judkins. There wasn't a single running back on that list that exceeded expectations greatly. Most of them were bust.
And it's not just based on what happened last year. Why we're making the determination, oh, the offenses that sports books say are going to be garbage. They're probably going to be garbage and we should avoid those running backs. It's going back over the past 22 years. Because I've looked at the starting running back for the bottom five offenses in the NFL over the past 22 years. That's 110 running backs. And out of that 110, only 43% of them were top 24 running backs in fantasy. Only 17% of them managed to be a top 12 running back in fantasy. And only 5% of them managed to be a top five running back in fantasy football. So, what this tells me is this tells me that running backs in garbage offenses, they could be top 24 guys with volume, but their upside to reach the top 12 mark, the top five mark, it's pretty damn unlikely. And again, this was exactly why we talked about Genty being in a void last season.
And I want to go through and look at the worst projections for offenses this year and talk about where we should take these running backs. Starting with Jeremiah Love. Now, it is tough for me to just say in a vacuum, oh, avoid Jeremiah Love or draft Jeremiah Love, right? Because everything comes down to the cost. If y'all been watching the live streams I've been doing nightly, I mean, I've been getting Jeremiah Love in the third round quite a bit. And in the third round, I'm going to be honest with you, I'm fine taking them, right? Because if we go back and look at recent history, the consensus cost for these top running backs in the NFL draft that go to bad teams like Ashen Genty, like Bean Robinson, they were round one fantasy football picks their rookie seasons, which obviously ended up being a massive, massive mistake and everybody should have known it based on the offenses they were stepping into. But a round three pick is just wildly different than a top 12. Because when you take Jeremiah Love in the third round, if he turns out to just be a mid running back two like Ashen Genty was last season, that's not losing you your fantasy football draft, right? Because you're going to have two hammers ahead of him. Maybe you started off your draft with the combination of Bejian Robinson, Nico Collins, and then Jeremiah Love is your third pick.
However, he's not a third round pick on every platform. That's the way in Yahoo drafts and CBS drafts and FFPC underdog drafts at the moment. But on some other platforms like ESPN, in your ESPN draft, he's going at pick 12. And again, if you're taking somebody at the end of the first, the beginning of the second, the calculus is just completely different where if that player isn't a top 10 guy at their position, you're probably tanked because you're relying on him to be that absolute hammer. So, I would avoid Jeremiah Love in your ESPN or even in your sleeper drafts if you have to take him in the second round. But if you're drafting on Yahoo or maybe like an underdog platform and you can get him in the third while the ceiling may be capped due to the Arizona Cardinals offense projecting to be the worst offense in the league, I'm okay at that cost.
Now, let's move over to Bree Hall. And I'm gonna be honest with you. I am not gonna give Bree Hall the same benefit of doubt that I'm going to give to Jeremiah Love. Because at least with Jeremiah Love, we can paint ourselves a picture of, oh, okay, what if the Arizona Cardinals and Jeremiah Love are like 2019 Saquon Barkley and the New York Giants where the Giants exceeded expectations to the upside. Saquon Barkley was a true generational level talent coming into the NFL, which is why he was a top three pick in his draft class. And obviously he's smashed to be the running back one. If the Cardinals can exceed to the expectations, I think Jeremiah Love could be that Saquon Barkley level talent. I'm not going to give Bree Hall the same benefit of the doubt because we have seen Bree Hall at this point in his NFL career over a large sample. And what we have seen backtoback seasons for Bree is him finishing as the running back 17 in points per game and then this past season finishing as the RB 21 in points per game. The Jets project to score 18.7 points per game according to the sportsbook data we posted on flockfantasy.com. So of course we can see the Jets project to be just as bad as the Arizona Cardinals. However, we have that expanded sample where we have seen that if Bree Hall isn't a garbage offense, we're getting running back two production. And I honestly think that that's a lot more projectable in my mind than what we are seeing with the wider range of outcomes of Jeremiah Love. So, while Breeze may have a higher floor, I think his ceiling's going to be a little capped. So, if I had to choose these two running backs that are both going to be in garbage offenses, I would rather go with the unknown upside case that Jeremiah Love, the third overall pick in the NFL draft, is a true generational level talent, than Breeze Hall, who we know is a very good running back, but he hasn't proven to be able to overcome the dumpster fire that the New York Jets are, and they have been for a very long time now.
There are some platforms where I'm fine drafting Bree Hall. Very similar to Jeremiah Love. Like Bree Hall is going at the end of the second round in ESPN drafts. I have no interest there. He's going at the end of the third, the beginning of the fourth of your Yahoo drafts, though. And if you could take Bree Hall at the beginning of the fourth of your Yahoo draft there, if he turns out to be a running back, too, it's a great pick. And I think honestly there is some upside to exceed and return value even past that point. And then sleeper is where I would say he's probably appropriately priced, where he's going as a mid third in sleeper drafts, which again is close to where we have him ranked on flockfantasy.com. But of course, if y'all aren't already, make sure you are making the adjustments to your exact league settings. Some of these running backs are going to be more valuable if you play in a league where you only start two wide receivers and one flex as opposed to those leagues where you start three wide receivers and a flex.
Now, of course, we make all the adjustments in our 2026 fantasy football draft sheets that are tailored to your exact draft platform. Whether you're on ESPN, Yahoo, Sleeper, CBS, and also tailored to your exact league settings. Whether you're playing a PPR, half PPR, nonPPR, you play a 10 team, 12 team, you start two wide receivers, two flexes, two wide receivers, one flex, super flex, tight end, premium, whatever you can think, we have over like 70 custom draft sheets for you and realtime draft assistance. It's all available with the $34 flockfantasy.com season pass. And if you use code flock, you are going to get free questions that you're allowed to ask me in the live streams during the season. Links in the description as well as the comment section.
Now, let's move over to our next running back. And this is going to be Quinn Shawn Judkins. Now, I'm going to be honest, I have not drafted a lot of Quinn Shawn Judkins. Right now, he is going at pick 53 in sleeper drafts, 57 in Yahoo drafts, and 40 in your ESPN league. Well, looks like ESPN, all these running backs are pushed up a bit. You'd have to take him in the fourth, but other draft platforms, you're able to get him in the fifth. Couple different things that I want to note with Judkins. One, he would be more exciting for me in a nonPPR format. If it was a standard league, half PPPR there, I'm more optimistic because a big knock that we have with Judkins is, of course, he's not really going to catch the ball, or at least he didn't catch the ball last season. Last season, he played 51% of the snaps for the Cleveland Browns. However, he only averaged 1.9 receptions per game. and 12.2 receiving yards per game. The Cleveland Browns project to score 18.9 fantasy points per game, which is right there with the New York Jets as well as the Arizona Cardinals. And based on them having one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL and their quarterback room being some combination of Deshun Watson and Sher Sanders, I don't have a lot of hope that this team can exceed expectations to the upside. And with these garbage offenses, the main thing that I'm concerned is if you're going to be a running back that doesn't catch the ball.
Like transitioning over to our next guy with Devon Achan. I'm going to be honest with you, AH and I have been drafting. And the reason for this is I feel like fantasy drafters have actually done an appropriate job pricing in the risk that we have with the Miami Dolphins offense. First thing that I want to point out will be the Miami Dolphins were already a bad offense last season. Last season, the Dolphins averaged 20.4 points per game. This season, they project to score 19.1 according to sports books. That's about a drop of 1.3 points per game. So already the Miami Dolphins offense hasn't been great. Or at least it wasn't last year. And what did that result in last season for Devon Aan? Oh, last season he averaged over 20 fantasy points per game. He was the RB5 in points per game. And now for three straight seasons, he's been a top six running back. However, if we actually go through and we look at his current cost in underdog drafts specifically where I've taken a lot of him, he's being drafted as the running back 11. So being drafted as the RB1 when he has a historical finish rate as a top five guy pretty much every single time and when we were worried about a lot of these running backs like Quinn Sean Judkins not being able to overcome their horrendous offensive environments. I think Devon Aant has at least a little more room to the upside because he can catch the ball. And at the same time we know that the Miami Dolphins have everything changing here. New coaching staff and new quarterback play. So, while yes, they project to be pretty bad, I don't think it's like a guarantee the way that the Cleveland Browns would be. I don't necessarily think it's a quoteunquote guarantee like the New York Jets will be because who knows, maybe Malik Willis is pretty damn good. Maybe we just have a Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens type scenario where the rushing quarterback elevates the overall rushing efficiency of the running backs in his backfield based on how linebackers and defensive coordinators have to scheme against that weapon.
Now again, still very much valid concerns with Devon Aan because the Dolphins project to be a bottom four offense. However, I believe that is priced in if you're able to get him in the middle of the second because if the Dolphins projected to be a good offense, I can make the argument that he'd be a top five pick in fantasy drafts. So, ton of red flags. However, I think in the middle of the second round that already is priced at.
Now, let's move over to our next guy, which is going to be Ashton Genty. Now, Ashton Genty is going from the league's worst offense to a borderline bottom five offensive unit. Like, the Las Vegas Raiders averaged 14.2 points per game last season. This year, they're projected to score 19.2. That has them as the number one offense in the entire NFL when it comes to improvement year-over-year. It makes sense. new coaching staff, improved offensive line, dramatically better quarterback play at the same time, and now you have Genty going into his second season. If we are looking at the current cost of Ashen Genty, he is a firstround pick in Yahoo drafts. He is a first round pick in underdog drafts. However, in your ESPN drafts, he's currently going at pick 17th. Now, for us on flockfantasy.com, we have him ranked there as a late round one, early round two pick. So maybe if you're drafting in a platform where he's going to go as a top 10 guy, you look to avoid. But in the second round, very similar to Devon Achan, I do believe that he has upside if the offense is better than how it projects. But when you're taking either one of these running backs, you need to understand that if the offensive environment collapses, we could see a very similar situation to what Ashen Genty was in last season. But almost no matter what, he should be better than his 14.4 points per game that he gave you as a rookie.
Now, moving over to our next guy, we are going to have Tony Pard. Pard in a similar boat in this instance where while yes, the Tennessee Titans project to be a borderline bottom five offense, I think there's hope for this Titans offense because one thing I want to point out is there is a clear distinction in sportsbook projections right now between the bottom five teams and then teams six and seven. Because right now, the Raiders are the fifth worst team in projections at 19.2 points per game. That's a 0.7 points per game different between the dead last team and the Arizona Cardinals. So all those bottom five teams are very very similar within about 0.7 points of each other. But then you get a massive jump of 1.5 points in projection from the fifth to the sixth. So I want to make a distinction. The Tennessee Titans are supposed to be a better offense than any other offense that we've talked about so far today. And very similar to what we talked about with the Raiders, they're supposed to be one of the most improved offenses in the entire league year-over-year where if we go back and look at where the Titans were last season, they averaged 16.7 fantasy points per game. And this year, they project to score 20.7. Makes sense. New coaching staff, year two quarterback, investments into the offense with like Carnell Tate hopefully stretching defenses outwards. And with Pard, his current cost has him as a high-end running back three when he's coming off the season with an RB30 finish. So, I would say that I'm completely fine drafting him depending on your platform. Like Yahoo drafts, he's going in the 80s. Sleeper, he's going in the 80s. Now, if you're using our ESPN draft sheets, you're probably not going to take him there because you would have to take him in the sixth round. But, as long as you're getting them in rounds like seven or eight, I think Tony Pard is a fine pick. But again, you would be betting on the Tennessee Titans offense taking them.
And then moving over to the Carolina Panthers, Chuba Hubard has been one of the biggest followers in drafts as of late. And this has represented a really strong buying opportunity, specifically in your ESPN drafts. like Hubard and Tony Pard for me based on their offensive outlooks, based on possibly Taji Spears, Nicholas Singleton expanding their roles in Tennessee and Jonathan Brooks expanding his role in Carolina. I think Hubard, Tony Pard are kind of two P's in the same pot. However, we are seeing Chuba Hubard get drafted pick 99 in your ESPN drafts and again in comparison to Tony Pard who's going in the sixth round of your ESPN leagues. But it's flipped also on Yahoo where Yahoo Hubard you'd have to take in the sixth and again you would get that value with Pard. So just make sure you are taking into account where your league mates are expected to draft these guys based on the platform that you're on. But I would say that he would be a very strong target in your ESPN drafts, especially if there we are wanting to avoid some of these other running backs such as Tony Pard, um, Bree Hall, and also Jeremiah Love.
But all in all, you'll see me taking some of these running backs in the live streams, but I do need to be getting a strong value on them. How I define a strong value is for Breeze Hall, the end of the third round, beginning of the fourth round. Jeremiah Love anywhere in the third round. Quinn Sean Judkins the end of the fifth. Devon Achan the middle of the second. Ashton Genty the beginning of the second. And then Tony Pard Chuba Hubard I would need them to fall to the seventh or eighth rounds. And ultimately if you want to hit big on these running backs the offenses have to exceed to the upside dramatically and you would need to feel comfortable making that bet. Of course, make sure you understand that your draft strategy should be different based on the platform you're on and your league settings that you play in as well. We have those customized draft sheets for you regardless of your platform or league format. We got you covered. Links in the description comment section to flockfantasy.com. Use code flock. You're going to get free questions that you can ask me during the live streams in the year. And again, it's $34 for the entire season. You're not having to pay monthly or anything. But much love. I appreciate you and I really hope you get to see in the live stream later.