Transcription
I'm about to make the biggest crypto buy that I've made since 4 months ago in April. And in today's video, I'll be explaining exactly why I'm doing it, what it is, and I'm also going to give you an overview heading into the weekend of what I'm doing in the altcoin market and what my thoughts are over the coming weeks on which altcoins are going to outperform.
Because if you look at the market right now, uh we know Ethereum is doing well against Bitcoin, uh but many altcoins actually aren't performing that well against Ethereum. And I think it's absolutely vital that for you to maximize this next period in the market that you're actually in the right altcoin. So, I'll put together some analysis today to make sure that you are positioned correctly. Uh, and I think you're really going to enjoy this video if you're interested in crushing it over the next few months in the crypto market.
So, if you do enjoy content like this, make sure you subscribe, hit that post notification bell for daily crypto alpha. We have some amazing content dropping over the weekend and in the coming days as usual. And uh without further ado, let's get straight into the video here.
So firstly, I want to take a look at Bitcoin because we have been tracking this range on the 1 hour time frame over the past few days. And you can actually see since the beginning of July, this is the first decisive breakdown that we have actually gotten. Now technically today we've started to tuck back inside the range, but things are looking a little bit dicey for BTC. We actually came down into this red zone, which is the CME future zone. You know, I've been talking about how often times Bitcoin actually goes down and fills CME gaps. You can see that there's a big gap on the CME between 144 and 155. And if you go onto the per markets, as you can see here on Bitfinex, but it's the same across by bit, Binance, etc., we actually did come down into that zone. So I actually I think made a video on this about 10 days ago where I said the mathematics suggests that within 2 weeks 70% of the time we actually come down and tag CME zones. That's exactly what has happened. We had a quick tag of that zone. But there are some people thinking that potentially we could go further into that zone. You see this tweet here from macroc saying that Bitcoin, you know, has been struggling into resistance and he's highlighted the levels of confluence between 112 and 115 as well. You can see uh also this tweet here from CryptoChase. They say Bitcoin on the hourly. Uh he has a level in the mid13s that he is keeping an eye on. That is the fair value gap in this zone here. Says may not get to these prices. Um but he doesn't want to give back his gains by bidding some optimal levels. A test of key support and resistance and I'm in on potential major liquidation.
So what do I think in terms of the Bitcoin price? Uh I think just purely based on momentum. Momentum seems to be stalling a little bit. Now obviously you know this could just be a fake out and Bitcoin could just rip higher straight back into the range and all is well and good. But what often happens when we actually break down from a range and it's a similar uh thing when you actually break above range high once a level stops being respected. So this level here um it does open up the floodgates for potential chop that could actually happen below that area of the range. So, in this case, this could potentially open up Bitcoin price action to flirt with levels below this zone. So, even if we push up here, potentially into 4hour resistance here on the noodle, uh, because this is technically a lower high and now we have these lows, there's not nothing really stopping us anymore from running back down and capturing liquidity in this zone. So, um, we may need to, you know, redraw our structures now that we have started to form a new local low on Bitcoin. uh because you know this price can now chop amongst this range and we can actually start closing below and tagging deeper liquidity here in this zone potentially. So for that reason I'm a little bit wary of the market over the coming days and I probably won't be looking to position heavy in Bitcoin or many altcoins uh until uh a trigger hits that I'll speak about in just a second.
Regarding altcoins, there are some setups that look better. ETH actually looks better versus Bitcoin. We have seen its momentum continue to climb. Actually flipping momentum on the weekly noodle here on the ETH BTC chart. So ETH certainly looks better than Bitcoin, but obviously weakness on Bitcoin is not a great thing for you know the market overall in the short term. I have no doubts from a macro perspective because if we zoom out on the weekly, Bitcoin balance of probability should be going a lot higher. But after a pretty significant runup, it's going through a consolidation period at the moment. And if you actually look at consolidation periods for Bitcoin after big run-ups, they can sometimes last a matter of weeks. So we saw a big run up here in November 2024. Then we saw Bitcoin chopping sideways for a matter of 10 11 weeks. We ran up here. We saw Bitcoin chop sideways for 8 weeks. We ran up here and we've only been chopping sideways for 2 weeks. So this could last a few weeks longer on Bitcoin. Um, and in the interim in absence you know of a big Bitcoin run this can maybe temper expectations in the short term in terms of where the market is going and I think that is reflecting on the cool down on the lower time frame on the lower time frames however, because the high time frame macro piece still looks so good for Bitcoin and it certainly looks really good for Ethereum as we're going to discuss today. I still have much higher targets heading into the end of the year just muting expectations in the short term because it is chop city on Bitcoin.
Now, in terms of the big trade that I'm looking at taking, it actually is on Bitcoin, and then we're going to get into the altcoins in today's video. Um, I know we tagged the CME gap, but I've been talking for quite some time about the fact that if we do get down to that level and, you know, we have a retest of support down there, I will be looking at getting some bigger Bitcoin fills, so some bigger entries on BTC. And my reasoning for this is I still think we're going to go much higher later in the year. I think the leg once we finally, you know, break past the previous all-time high at 122 could potentially take us to 130, 140, 150. And because I'm pretty heavily capitalized in stable coins, you know, relative to um how I have been historically, I am keen to maximize this final wave of the cycle. And because I think Bitcoin dominance, although, you know, it is going down because I think it will have a final push up at some point as Bitcoin hits discovery, I want to be exposed to Bitcoin in adequate fashion. So, if you do look at the weekly here on dominance, although it has broken down, what we do sometimes see from dominance uh are these spikes back to the upside. I mean, technically it's been in an uptrend the entire way along here, but you know, you could see that last time we kind of had this alt run, then it spiked back up. It's come back down. We may actually see it spike up um before it makes lower lows. And I do think it eventually makes lower lows. But I think there will be a period even if we go down a little bit more where dominance actually comes back up before lower lows and altcoins have that final blowoff because I think that um Bitcoin actually needs to lead in order to give you know Ethereum and alts enough juice to actually have a big alt season because if this is the peak of the cycle for Bitcoin, I think this actually limits the overall market. The reason ETH's running so strongly right now is because Bitcoin has sent that anchor much higher in terms of relative price performance because it's performed quite well and people are rotating into Ethereum. So, we want to see this next leg up on Bitcoin for a bigger rotation to happen and I still think that comes.
So, for that reason, I'll be making my biggest Bitcoin buy that I've made since uh April this year and September last year. Um there's been a couple of times where I made big Bitcoin buys and I've disclosed all of them. So September last year it was at I think 50 around 55K. April this year it was at 75K. Sorry 58K in September. Um 75K in April. So they they've been my two biggest entries. I've just been riding those spot positions. I actually missed the breakout trade in terms of adding spot at 110. I did tell myself I was going to add spot, but I was traveling and honestly not that locked in. So I didn't get an adequate entry. And then when we were pumping uh to 120, I said, "Look, I'm just going to wait. I'm going to be patient. The CME gaps often fill." And I think I'm going to get a lower entry. Now we've come down there. I didn't get a big fill. Some of my T- Wops did start to fill at 1145, but my full position, my full massive position, which is one of the biggest Bitcoin buys I've ever made. Um, I probably won't end up manually filling the full position until we sweep this level again at 114K. And I'm going to have ladder orders all the way down to 135 because there is this cluster here at 111, which was a breakout zone. If you want to go back onto the chart, we know on the daily and the weekly this was a breakout zone. We probably don't want to go down and test that level because then you start flirting with going back into this range. So, I actually want to see Bitcoin hold around 114. Although, I think there's a high probability just due to the way price action looks on, you know, the 1 hour and the 4our. Um, we go back down there. I don't want to see any lower than that level. So, my latter orders will be set between this zone and that will be my biggest Bitcoin buy since April.
But now let's talk about the altcoins because I am making some moves in the altcoin market as well. And actually, you know, my strategy regarding altcoins uh actually revolves around what's happening to Ethereum right now. So, Ethereum, as I pointed out before versus BTC on the weekly chart has started to flip momentum. Now, the weekly money noodle is a significant momentum gauger for Ethereum because basically it was in this downtrend versus Bitcoin, right? every time it tagged up, uh, it would reject off the noodle, tag up, rejection, tag up, rejection. It actually made its way to the range low, which was also the lows of 2019. So, this is a full reset on the ETH BTC chart. It pivoted off the range lows, which signals to me there's a high likelihood this is a bottom, and that's something Benjamin Cowan also agrees with. There's something I don't agree with Benjamin Cowan, which I'm going to speak about uh in a couple of minutes here that uh I I want to bring up because I I think it's very important. Um, he actually thinks ETH's going to outperform alts. I I want to uh actually clarify what I think about that cuz I think he's missing one thing. Uh, but we'll continue on this analysis for now. We've finally seen this level actually flip. So going from a downtrend with lower lows and lower highs finally to making the first higher high and higher lows. It's the second higher low setting. Maybe another one in here. And hopefully this trend does continue to push ETH further towards that mid-range zone. Yes, you'll see pullbacks. Potentially it'll get up here and then, you know, Bitcoin will have a run uh before we come up and and make a final uh attempt here, which could be, you know, the peak for Ethereum for the cycle. Theoretically, it could get to range high at some point this cycle, but that would just be such a massive move. I'm personally not setting that in as my base case. My base case is that ETHBTC reaches the mid-range. This is still a 60% move for Ethereum versus Bitcoin, which would be amazing for alts. And then my outlandish case, but I don't think this is going to happen, is that we get to range high. But honestly, I don't think that'll be the case because I still think for alts to perform well, we we still want one more leg for Bitcoin. And I think given the way, you know, Bitcoin has held a lot of dominance this cycle, it will have that final leg to the upside. But Ethereum right now overall from a momentum perspective and a price action perspective, even in terms of relative strength over the last few days, has actually looked better than Bitcoin. And it's not just uh the price action, it's also the sentiment. One thing I do is I go into cookie.fund to actually look at the mind share of tokens to see what's gaining mind share and what's gaining sentiment. And you can see ETH is actually the number one ranked coin in the market for mind share change. So it's seeing an an extreme increase in sentiment over the past 24 hours and relative to the market over the last few weeks. And you can also see that community sentiment for ETH is very strong. uh positive is 93%, negative only 6% versus Bitcoin which has a negativity rating of 16.6%. So looking at the sentiment uh for Bitcoin as you can see here versus Ethereum is also a good way to quantify, you know, where we are in the cycle alongside price action. Uh, so we're seeing sentiment going up for Ethereum relative to Bitcoin uh also in tandem with the price action. So, this is one thing to to monitor and this is obviously a good thing uh for altcoins overall.
Um, now before I get into Cowan's tweet and and why I have a slightly different take than him, um I want to remind you that if you do want to claim a free $20 ETH trade, so if you also want to capitalize on the strong sentiment and the strong price action for Ethereum link in the description below, you can claim a free $20 ETH trade. Uh, this is expiring in two days, but I do think that our hard cap of 300 is going to expire uh before the time limit. But just to let you guys know, there are still a few slots available. As long as the link is still available in the description, that means there are still slots. All you need to do is sign up, create a new account, and you're going to receive a $20 futures bonus for you to go long on Ethereum or short. You can do whatever you want. Uh, so just to um, you know, run some quick math on this, if you open up a 10x $20 free ETH trade, you would essentially have $200 of margin. So you're basically getting $200 worth of exposure to Ethereum for free just through signing up. It's, you know, I think one of the better offers that we've ever done on Blofen. I know not everyone has a bunch of capital to deposit into an exchange for a deposit bonus. So in my opinion, this is even better because you get a free trade and obviously, you know, if you make money, um, you can get that profit uh, credited to your futures account once you close the trade. So you can actually use that money to trade other coins after you have successfully closed your Ethereum trade.
Now the tweet that I want to respond to that Cowan tweeted which I think is important to contextualize what altcoins I think are going to outperform over this next period of the market is this. He says also now down 43% against ETH since ETH went home. Alts will likely continue to bleed against ETH for a while. The only way alt BTC pairs go up in the short term is if ETH BTC goes up first. So, ETH continues to be a better riskreward than alts. Now, what I do agree is that ETH is probably better riskreward than alts if you look at, you know, a lot of the bad alts in the market. So, if you look at the things that don't have attention, if you look at, you know, the the massively um diluted coins, if you look at most coins, then technically, yes, ETH's a better riskreward than alt. I still think because ETH is kind of the tide that lifts all ships with altcoins. If you're in the strong coins, the coins that are correlated to ETH, the coins that are ETH ecosystem, the coins with stronger mind share um than ETH on a relative basis, these can still outperform Ethereum in this environment. The reason why these indexes look so bad for altcoins is because they capture the entire market. They capture every coin uh basically in the market that has launched and the team's kind of forgotten about or they're just chugging along. They capture all the coins with dead weight liquidity. I was watching cryptobounc the other day. Ran had a great segment on you know the fact that you know all these coins like polka dot actually have still so many millions of dollars in capital still locked up in them. The problem with these total three indexes and these others indexes is that they still include the dead weight altcoins. But if you're watching this channel you're likely smart. You likely at least understand narrative in the market. You at least understand where attention in the market because this is something I talk about a lot. uh where attention flows, liquidity goes, and if you're able to decipher where the attention is going, you should be able to outperform Ethereum. And I think this is, you know, categorically proven. If you want to do a correlations matrix to see altcoin correlation versus Ethereum, you can actually see, and these are all relatively strong coins in the market. Fluid, which is a top DeFi coin, this has a 0.99 correlation to Ethereum. So, it's pretty much one:1 correlated and on a relative basis has actually been outperforming. um this measures the uh volatility of an altcoin and measures the volatility of Ethereum to work out how in line price action is. So when Ethereum dumps does a coin dump and when Ethereum pumps does this coin dump? But you can see this basket of assets is correlated to Ethereum. Now maybe if you put another coin in that you know isn't that strong. It might not be correlated to Ethereum at least you know over the past 7 days or over the last month which is the best time frame in my opinion because it gives you a more holistic view on the market. But if you are in the strong coins that are correlated to Ethereum and are strong on a relative basis versus Ethereum, you should actually be able to outperform. So yes, if we're looking at alt indexes, technically Ethereum is outperforming. Um, but it's only doing so because there are a lot of bad altcoins in the market. And if you're half smart and I'll go through some of the altcoins today, you can actually make sure you're in the strong altcoins versus ETH and thus you can actually outperform Ethereum because I do agree with this from Cowan in the sense that alts um in general bad alts will continue to bleed versus ETH. I also agree that ETH continues to be a better riskreward than a lot of altcoins in the market, but not all coins in the market. There are some that I'm looking at that are going to outperform. ENA, for example, we mentioned on the show yesterday when the market was dipping and it had a really nice strong reaction, up 32% from that zone that we spoke about as an entry on the show. So, make sure you are tuning in. Paradise's entries have been absolutely banging, not just in the Discord, but now on the shows that I'm doing with him on the YouTube channel. So, uh, that was absolutely amazing.
Now, I'm going to recap yesterday's show a little bit. If you do want a more of, you know, a review on how I actually look at which altcoins to buy, um, I have my full criteria that I listed in that video. But to recap, I'm looking for coins that have a good performance versus Bitcoin and ETH, have good relative strength versus Ethereum, have a strong narrative, and have strong fundamentals in the market. Yesterday's video goes through the criteria at more length. So, Pangu, wrecked, ENA fluid, these are all coins that I think fit this category. And then some of the meme coins as well fit that category. The other category of coins that I think uh are going to outperform Ethereum and are correlated to Ethereum are the Ethereum DeFi coins. So the Ethereum stable coin coins in particular look really strong. So Syrup, Curve, ENA, and Make a Dow. The number one way to make sure your altcoin is actually outperforming Ethereum is to simply go onto the chart uh on Trading View and actually chart it versus Ethereum. So you you could for example for syrup you can write syrup USD/ ETHUSDT and see how it's performing versus ETH. You can see this was in a downtrend. As long as it's in a downtrend, you want to be longing Ethereum on dips, but this actually flipped momentum on the 4hour noodle and is now in an uptrend. So now, anytime Syrup dips versus Ethereum, you want to be longing. If you look at the Penangu chart versus ETH, this is also in an uptrend. So this is something that I would also long on dips because since being in a long accumulation phase/ downtrend, it is now firmly in an uptrend. So, you want to be making sure if you are going to long a coin versus ETH, it's either at a structural high time frame level retest or even better in an uptrend because then you're getting better entries and it's proving that I can outperform.
Something I've also been messing around with is uh a Monte Carlo analysis or a price forecast on coins versus Ethereum. So, I'm trying to make sure that the bullish scenarios out skew the bearish scenarios. I'll dive deeper into my AI analytics tools in a future video, but I've been building this on Claude to make sure I'm in coins that actually outperform ETH. So, you can see Bonk fits this category because it's outperforming ETH and it has a better price forecast based on real-time Monte Carlo sims um than other coins. You can look at ENA also outperforming ETH over the past month. XLM outperforming ETH, H bar, this, you know, ISO narrative, I'm not a big fan of it, but you know, undoubtedly it is outperforming. You want to be using all the tools at your disposal to work out the coins that are actually outperforming Ethereum. And on chat GPT, I also created a list of coins. I inputed the list manually. And then I asked it for a bunch of catalysts and you could see some of the coins that fit the criteria that I spoke about in yesterday's video that are also outperforming ETH, a Penangu, Wreck, ENA, Fluid, Pepe, Bonk, Doge, Mog, Farcoin, SPX. There are more in the market as well, but these are some of the main ones that on dips I would be longing as long as you have confluence on the ETH pair and their USD pair because they should be outperforming Ethereum. So although what Cowan said is correct about ETH dominance actually increasing in the market, I think with a little bit of nuance, you can actually pick some of the coins that are going to outperform Ethereum and for higher beta exposure to the market. This is what I would be uh focusing on.
Now, just to wrap up the show here, um I just want to give my quick kind of gut feel on what's going to happen in this next little period of the market. I posted this in Mars High Club earlier, but yeah, just wanted to take a fun stab at where I think things go. I think that based on price action on Bitcoin due to the fact things have been a little bit choppy. I think we probably chop for a little bit longer. This doesn't look like it wants to resolve unless we have, you know, a massive leg to the upside in the near term. We're already starting even to see today's gain start to be eroded a bit more. I think we actually come back down and sweep. That's when I'll be making a much bigger buy on Bitcoin. So, I think this could chop for a week or so. Then, I think we start to see a recovery in August, followed by a late August or early September dip, I think we see a secondary flush after Ethereum's next leg to the upside that takes it closer to the ETH BTC mid-range. Then, I think after that secondary flush, we see a bigger run into October, November, that may actually be led by Bitcoin. So, the this is my thoughts on the market. What this means is that now in terms of the overall cycle, we're not early, but in terms of the altcoin season or the al the final altcoin run, uh we are relatively early considering that 80% of returns in the market are made during the last 20% of the cycle. And I believe after ETH um has a big run, profit rotates back into Bitcoin and Bitcoin reaches a new all-time high, that final redistribution of capital into the old coins uh will trigger the big run in the altcoin market, which still hasn't happened. So, still lots of opportunity in the market as long as you are positioning and on dips, slowly building the right positions. And I think uh you're really going to outperform if you can manage to do that. And I'll keep you updated on all of this as I do these shows. Who knows when some of my orders are going to trigger. So, I'll keep you guys updated. Obviously, I'm in the Miles High Club every single day. Um the last thing I want to remind you of is that uh we do have this blowofen campaign. If you want a free $20 ETH trade, you can long or short, choose your own leverage. Uh you can do whatever you want with it, but it is a free trade just through clicking the link in the description below. Good luck to everyone trading Ethereum and altcoins. I will see you in the next video. Have a lovely rest of your day as usual. Peace out, guys.