[Brief Privé] 0412/2025

Hello everyone. Well, so I propose a point on Bitcoin, on altcoins, a somewhat global situation update. Uh, we'll try not to be too long because, well, anyway, the plan is proceeding for now, there's no massive review of our exposure, of the indicators, etc. So, we'll look at this a bit together. Uh, also, a little review of altcoins because, well, it's important to see if the positions are okay. Obviously, I'll warn you as soon as there's a major change on the slightest altcoin on the watchlist, but it's still important that you see the charts, so that you can see what I see and you can be sure, therefore, of being well-positioned. Here, at the Bitcoin level on daily, we are at 93,200 dollars. We are slowly approaching this famous trendline. Now, it can be drawn in many ways, but there you go, I consider that this one is approximately the right way to draw it. Obviously, here, we had small deviations. I could go back a bit closer to the candle wicks and so on. If we get closer to the candle wicks, I think we must be almost on it. Hop, you see, hop, we are on it on the candle wicks. You see, right? So here, this could potentially be the signal that we are potentially at a major resistance level. Okay. Well, anyway, it doesn't change much in reality. We are approaching these levels and so we are at vigilance levels. Okay? We are slowly, slowly, sorry, approaching our vigilance levels. We have the liquidations that are right here waiting for us, right? Uh, right there. Hop, we'll put them back here. Uh, I still think we have the possibility to go and get them. We'll look at it a bit together, but we have a price action that is a bit different from what we could have had here and which is, which is quite pleasant. So, we are creating a bit of divergence on the RSI. You see it right here. Hop, we are recreating divergences, meaning the RSI is going down while the price is going up. This is precisely a momentum divergence. Momentum is precisely the dynamics of the price. The dynamics of the price are indicated by this indicator, which is the RSI. You can have the possibility to take the MACD, but it sends you the same signals anyway. It's just a slight difference in calculation method. What we're going to see now is that we have something interesting, which is that we've recovered the two support levels that were here around 93,100 and here around 93,000 approximately. There you go, 9300 approximately. Yes, that's it. 200. We had two somewhat major support levels here. Hop and hop. And we came to work them, but you see that we are consolidating on them. So there's no, there's no real problem with that. Likewise, we came to recover, I believe, this support level. Yes, we came to recover it, resistance, sorry. Uh, and these levels are causing consolidation, but you see that we are still managing to maintain a somewhat nice trend. If we look at much shorter time scales, right, here we'll look for example at 15 minutes. You see that here on 15 minutes since the last few hours, right, since yesterday afternoon, we are still managing to make a somewhat nice structure and an RSI that holds. You see? So we're not chaining divergences on this time scale, which is quite reassuring, which also shows that there is still a certain strength, a certain buying dynamic. And so potentially, this is more at the price action level. So price action is simply the chart. Okay? It's a, it's a nice technical word to simply say the shape of the chart. Okay, this is a price action, this is a price action, this is a price action, and so on. But often, what we'll look at are different patterns, okay? So different patterns that repeat. And generally, well, when we have a price action that, you see, when we have this, for example, well, this indicates that there is quite a bit of weakness. Okay. When we have this kind of behavior, okay, well, then we say, well, there's quite a bit of strength here, okay? We're holding supports, we're managing to break small resistance levels, and so on. Anyway. So this is what we'll look at, and that's why generally, the more you go, the more by simply looking at the price without looking at the indicators, you are able to see if there are divergences, if it's weakening, if there's buyer support, if there's seller weakness, and so on. And here, we tend to see that, well, here we have a small trendline that is right there, hop, that is drawing itself quite obviously. Okay, so here obviously many people will play it, and that's why we could have here, so we have, I'll put the liquidity levels. We have liquidity levels here, here, here. It's possible we'll have a small movement like this. You see? Hop, tac. and then go back up. This is something that is 100% probable with here a return just here between these support levels. Maybe below, maybe below right here. Okay. It's possible we'll go down to 89. But honestly, I think already going down to 91 is entirely probable. Going down to 91 and then going back up to 96 and so on. We'll look a bit at what's happening at the order level right here. But you see that we still have a buying dynamic. We still have a market sentiment that is more or less bearish. Okay? Fundings tend to decrease during this bullish phase. So this is rather reassuring. We don't have any overheating on the open interest side. So that means there's no excessive leverage. Okay? So there's no real need to purge. This is what the open interest tells us. We'll look a bit at what it tells us. But you see here, uh, we had an increase in this open interest, which worried us greatly. And you see that well, since around that time, since around the bottom where we came back up and again, well, liquidated the bearish positions, so all the sellers who were a bit too confident, we liquidated them, and that, and that caused this open interest to deflate. So there's no excessive leverage, and that's rather healthy. Okay? This means that movements can be built reasonably without necessarily needing to liquidate the first person who comes along, and so on. Okay? If we now look at what's happening at the CVD level, we'll look at the dynamics on the derivatives markets here and on the spot markets here. We see that on the derivatives markets since this rebound, well, you feel it, you surely feel it on social media, etc. We're talking a lot again about arguments like it's extremely positive, incredible things are happening in crypto, the bullish movement is back. So there's a narrative linked to the fact that it's a rebound and that you have to take advantage of this rebound, but be careful, it's a rebound in a bearish trend. So this could catch many people off guard who say, "Okay, it's a rebound, but I still need to be cautious. I need to take profits quickly as soon as there's a rebound because ultimately it's just a rebound in a bearish trend." So there's a bit of this narrative going around, which means that we have quite a few people who are bullish, but bullish in the short term. They are ready to take profits quite quickly. And that's rather healthy. Likewise, because as soon as we reach support levels, as soon as we reach 100,000 dollars, very certainly the people who are buying here, and we see that quite a few buyers have entered on these last movements, right? Here, you see the CVD increasing. This means that quite a few people are buying on futures contracts, okay? On the derivatives markets, quite a few people are betting on the upside, okay? Even if it doesn't translate much into an increase in open interest, because there are certainly also people closing positions. That is to say, the person who had bought here thinking, "I'm buying the rebound," well, here they took profits. Okay? So the person who buys here, maybe they take profits here. So in fact, we have a lot of people buying, but they are buying in the short term. They are following the trend a bit, but they are quite nervous. This is why we don't have an open interest, sorry, an open interest here that is skyrocketing. And here, what I wanted to show was more, so I made a mistake here, but well, in fact, they have relatively the same, the same appearance. However, here at the cumulative volume delta level, so the CVD, at the spot level, you see that it's flat. Okay? So there's no real, there's no more real demand. Which had driven us a bit during this rebound phase in the first part of this movement, okay? Between 90,000, sorry, 80,000 and 93,000 dollars. Okay, during this movement, hop. Well, what had driven us here was a lot of buying pressure that was real on the spot markets, okay, and which was the opposite of that on the derivatives contracts. Here, we have a stagnation on the CVD, meaning there's neither a massive buying position nor a massive selling position. It's a bit of passivity. Okay? So here, we are taking back the lead on this movement via the derivatives contracts. And so potentially, these last-minute buyers would need to be corrected a bit. That's why a small move here that would bring us to 91 or even to, well, to 90,500. Uh, is something that would remain totally healthy and would allow us to liquidate a few people. It's not at all mandatory to do it again. It's not because it's not excessive. Okay? All the same, when you zoom out a bit, you see that there's a slight rebound. Well, given what we've fallen recently, it's not dramatic either, okay? To have a slight rebound, and even more so because here the fundings are decreasing. So that means we still have a balance that is being found, and even rather a seller imbalance. That is to say, despite the buying positions that are currently on the derivatives contracts, we still have a lot of sellers, okay, who feel, well, like shorting the market, who say, "Okay, if it's a rebound in a bearish trend, I'm under resistance." And indeed, when you are under resistance, someone who wants to short the market is in a good location to do so. They are not in a good price dynamic to do so. I remind you that there are always three factors, right? This is what we talk about in the last chapters of the technical analysis and graphical analysis training. Uh, we must have three elements: the location, the structure, and the momentum. So the location part, we are there to short the market, right? If you want to place a short here, that is to say, bet on a bearish movement, you will simply look at the location part. I remind you, we buy at support, we sell under resistance. So here, we would rather want to sell. We are right under resistance. So here, at the structure level, at the location level, sorry, it's validated. We could short the market, it would be totally, totally okay. Now, at the structure level, well, we don't have a bearish structure, okay? Because to short the market, you need a bearish structure, so typically a distribution structure. That is to say, here, we would need this. Hop! Okay, here we would have a liquidity grab just above. We re-enter and so potentially, you launch your short right here. Okay? You take it here. Hop! Re-entry. You place your short, you place your stop just above the previous levels. Now, not exactly above, right, otherwise you have a chance of just having a movement like this. Hop, hop, and hop. So, we try to be a bit cautious. We place a short here. Okay? And we will set a price target either at the midpoint of the fair value gap here, okay? So the midpoint, approximately the midpoint of the bullish imbalance, or even a return here. Okay? So, let's say we target that. Okay? This gives a risk-reward of 2 to 1. It's quite classic in trading, in setups that have high probabilities of resolving like this. So here, we would need this, and we would also need bearish momentum. So potentially, you see, something, instead of having a price action like this, because here it's possible we won't have bearish momentum because we haven't consolidated long enough, but you see something like this. Hop, hop, and then here we could short the market at that moment. Okay. At that moment, with here, momentum. So, I don't have the RSI here, I don't know if I can add it. Yes, I can add it here. Hop, the RSI, which would then continue to make divergences. Here, you see that we have a bearish divergence on a 1-hour time scale. So potentially, we have the location, the momentum, but we don't have the structure for the moment. So, we would need a final expansion phase before being able to short the market. For now, it's much too early to do it, but you obviously have traders who are a bit less experienced, who are sometimes a bit less rigorous or who are afraid of missing the train. FOMO exists in both directions, right? You're afraid of missing the short that will make you rich, and so you short the market even if you don't have all your confirmations, and therefore you risk getting liquidated. And so here, really, I'm not shorting the market, but potentially here we could soon have a market short setup for traders. On my end, well, I still think that we have a good probability of recovering this zone of 96 to 98,000 dollars. Here, if we look in the short term, you see that we have approximately a balance between buyers and sellers. We observe that we still have a few more buyers. This is visible in what we discussed, right? Here, the famous buyers who arrived in the short term, necessarily they place their liquidation price quite close to the price. And so here, we have a lot of liquidations that are found here around 92. Again, going to get them is not complicated either, and that's why the market could come and get them. You see here, we have a major liquidation zone at 91,600. I say major, but well, it remains in the short term, so it's not exceptional either, but there you go, you see that the market could feed on that before going back up. Why not? Okay? This would be a movement that is quite healthy. Nevertheless, you see that here, we still have quite a bit of liquidity. So we still have short sellers, it's visible, these are the negative fundings we were seeing. If we look at the last 48 hours of trading, you have quite a few people who are starting to think that, well, this is a consolidation before a bearish recovery. And this, what gave them, hop, what gave them a lot of, a lot of reason in the past, is that precisely every time we had small, small consolidations, momentum weaknesses, hop, this translated into capitulations. And even here, you see that, well, we had a powerful rebound, but here, we had the phase that brought us much lower. Okay? So potentially here, they say, "Okay, this will bring us maybe here, maybe here, maybe lower." And so I have every interest in taking a short. I will close it if we reach here, but at least I'll make a bit of, I'll make a bit of profit and I'll make a bit of money in the short term. Okay? Well, for now, this is what we see here in the liquidations with precisely people who have their liquidation zone really just above the price. Okay, we're talking about 94 to 95,000 dollars, which is entirely probable to reach in a second phase. Okay. Here, we see that we still have a nice, a nice yellow line to recover just above the price. We'll continue our upward trend a bit. Here, we are on a week of trading. Well, on a week of trading, there's no doubt. The liquidity is bearish. Okay? So there are a lot of shorts to recover between 94 and 96. Well, then, if we look, if we continue, we'll have a nice zone, right, that is forming. So we'll look, but generally, we have a nice zone that is forming right here. There you go, which extends up to 98. Here we have a nice, nice liquidity zone also that is right there. Will we have to go and get them? Well, we are still very close to these price zones. It's possible we won't get them, but you see, generally, we like to make small stairs like this, go and recover all the liquidity, exhaust the sellers before going back down. So, that's why I'm telling you, if we have a liquidity grab and a re-entry, we'll have to expect to potentially recover this liquidity that is right there. It's still too early to say. And anyway, these remain short-term movements. All of this is to prepare you a bit for the short term so that you are not helpless if something happens. But there you go, when you take a step back, if you look at the big picture, okay, the big picture here, you see that we still have the famous liquidation wall that is here, okay? Around 108 to 110,000 dollars. And you see that here, we have numerous liquidations that bring us up to there. And finally, what we saw as a large liquidation zone at 83,000 is weak, very weak compared to what awaits us above, okay? From now until 108,000. So we'll have to see a bit what happens. Potentially, we could go into a somewhat more powerful short squeeze. A short squeeze is that famous big bullish candle like we had right here. Okay, if I zoom out a bit. We'll look at that. A short squeeze is precisely the big, big bullish impulses like we had here. Okay, we have a big candle. But it's far from being the most powerful we've had in the past, right, let alone what we had here, okay? Right here. You see that in 2 days, we went, hop, from, we gained, therefore, 8,000 dollars in a straight line, right? Okay, even almost, yes, even 9,000 dollars in a straight line. We went from 85 to 80. Well, we were at the same levels around 94,000. Okay? So potentially here, we could do something totally similar. You see here, again, a big impulse. Now, that wasn't really a short squeeze, it was more precisely a bullish impulse. But at that time, here, that was a real short squeeze. Okay? So potentially, we could have something like this, okay? Something that would bring us here, hop, almost in a straight line and would increase the valuation by, well, 8, 9,000 dollars and would bring us to 100, 102,000, and so on. So this is totally probable because we have a lot, a lot of liquidity waiting for us above us. Regarding ETFs, there's still a slight buying pressure. Now, it's really very light again, but what's interesting is to see that we have stabilization, there's no more massive selling, there's not necessarily massive buying, but there is still stabilization. If we also look at economic data, which is quite interesting, you see that here we had the PMI figures on Monday, but we had here on Wednesday the non-manufacturing PMI figures and also non-farm payrolls. I wanted to zoom in on non-farm payrolls. You see that we have a very bearish trend. So this means that there is pressure on the US labor market, which is pushing, well, precisely Jerome Powell to accelerate his interest rate cuts a bit because here you see that, well, we still had some job creation, and now for a few months, well, it's been really very, very difficult. So we've been a bit in limbo for a long time because of the shutdown, but now that we have some data, we see that it's still very, very fragile. Okay? If we look a bit, we had here some forecasts. So the last figures were 47,000 jobs created for the month. We were expecting 50,000 for November, and you see that in the end, we had -32, okay? We had job destruction. So this is very negative, very negative for employment in the United States. We will have weekly jobless claims here, but you see that it's not glorious, right? If we zoom in a bit on what's happening, you see that it's not glorious in these last, in these last weeks. Sorry, I'll try to zoom. Hop, tac, tac, tac. We'll zoom in right here. But you see that in recent weeks, we've seen a constant decrease in job creation. So this could lead Jerome Powell to accelerate. So this is a bit of the final blow, right? We have the economy weakening a bit, the labor market weakening. Inflation remains stable. So very likely, we are waiting for the PCE figures which will be announced tomorrow, and tomorrow we should know more, and rates should be stabilized, okay? In one direction or the other, likely in this direction, meaning a 25 basis point rate cut, which we should reach by Friday afternoon. Therefore, a much higher rate, okay? We'll be around 95, 96 very likely. And this will indicate to us that, well, that's it, the market has priced in the fact that we will have a rate cut next Wednesday. Uh, honestly, it's already almost a done deal, and, and there you go. But there you go, to understand a bit what's going on, this is precisely what is pushing Jerome Powell to do it. The advantage, and this is what is rather pleasant, is to see that it's slowing down, but it's slowing down quite progressively. We don't have any real big shocks on employment or on the US economy, which means that we still have some strength, and that means the Fed is not behind. You know that this is a major concern for the economy, and in particular for the bank, the US Federal Reserve, sorry, a big concern is acting a bit too late because when you lower rates, the reaction on the economy is not instantaneous. We must distinguish finance and economy. A financial crisis is a crisis that concerns the stock market. An economic crisis is a crisis that really concerns income and the economy, let's say the real economy, okay? Real estate, employment, purchasing power, and so on. That is an economic crisis. Okay? You have financial crises that are not necessarily economic crises. For example, the Covid crisis was more of a financial crisis, okay? And then it transferred a bit into an economic crisis, but it was largely saved by the partial unemployment in Europe and the US. You had major economic crises in 2008, 1900, 1930. You had financial crises, typically in 1987. Okay. Which was mainly a big financial crisis but didn't contaminate the real economy too much. So we need to distinguish that a bit. And so what the US Federal Reserve wants to do is save the economy. Okay? Finance, so to speak, is important, but as long as there's no systemic problem, it's not a big deal if there's a small correction in the financial markets. What they want is that there's no contamination at the economic level. And the problem is that the economy doesn't react to stimuli instantaneously. The stock market can go up 5% in a day or down 5% in a day. For people to find jobs, it doesn't happen in the afternoon. Okay? When you want to facilitate credit access, slightly improve consumption and consumer confidence, and so on, well, people won't say overnight, "That's it, they've lowered rates, I'm going to go shopping and buy Christmas presents and spend my whole salary because I'm confident the economy will be better tomorrow." No, human behaviors have a lot of inertia. And so to shift consumer confidence, you have to be very, very cautious. So that's why the markets absolutely want rate cuts, but they want them measured. Okay? If tomorrow we had a 50 basis point rate cut, okay, to go directly to a rate of 3.25 to 3.50, going from here to there, that would be bad news for the market. What would it mean? It would mean that if we have too many rate cuts at once, it means that the markets anticipate that the US Federal Reserve is afraid they acted too late and that the real economy is suffering from their inaction. Okay? And that is a big fear, okay? For the markets. So having a 25 basis point rate cut is great. Having rate cuts every 1 month, 2 months, 3 months, and so on, is very good. It means the pace is positive, we will facilitate credit access conditions, and so on, but it also means that the economy is doing well and there's no need to rush. And that's very important because, all in all, the real economy translates into finance, because the real economy is consumer spending. Consumer spending translates into company profits. And company profits are what directly impact stock valuations. Okay? So if you want finance to do well, the economy must also do well. So here, having a rate cut is very good. Having measured rate cuts with an economy that is weakening but holding up is still important. This is what is called the famous soft landing, the soft landing theory. Because, well, until now, soft landings never happened, and when the Federal Reserve lowered rates, well, it happened if we look here, Fed Funds, hop, when they lowered rates back then, right here in 2020, you see they didn't hold back, right? Here, they went from 1.50 in rates to zero, okay, in the space of, well, 2 months. Okay. Well, that was a big panic, and it was a fear that the markets, the markets had crashed. Okay. At that time, they had already crashed. We were afraid the economy wouldn't recover. So there you go. So we'll pick up where we left off regarding ETFs. So you see here, we still have stabilization. So I quite like that. We still need to be vigilant about that. Okay. On the W SOP, there's still some profit-taking. Now, it's still really measured. You see that in the past, when we formed bottoms on rebounds, we had some profit-taking, etc., from whales, but it's likely because we are not yet ready to go strongly upwards. You see that, for example, here, we had a nice rebound, and we went to recover large zones on this whale Sopr before going back down. And that indicated to us that we potentially had a second leg waiting for us. Okay? A deeper leg, a less deep one, we can't say. Okay? But the fact of having a rise here indicates one thing. It indicates that, well, potentially we are not totally, totally ready. Okay, if I zoom in a bit on this part of the 2024 range, which is a bit of a textbook case, you see that here we went up, okay? And then down again, new leg. Okay, profit-taking, new bearish leg. Okay? Until we had stabilization and a price rise without too much profit-taking. Here, we had profit-taking right there, and then a small consolidation with an indicator deflating. So here, we'll have to see what happens. If we manage to stabilize here on prices and have this indicator deflate, honestly, I wouldn't worry too much. And that means the theory of having a second bearish leg is starting to fade. Okay? But it's something I'm obviously monitoring because we've had a rebound. I told you, we don't act out of fear to lighten the portfolio. Now, I'm still 80% exposed. And if there's a bear market, okay, even if it's not the most important theory for me at the moment, despite everything. Okay, with overheating indicators, etc., well, we'll have to lighten up. Okay. Even just lightening up to, for example, 50/50. Okay? That's entirely possible. What's needed is to be really, really measured. Okay. Uh, being aggressive, obviously, I was relatively so when I decided to invest here. You see that it paid off rather well because we had really, really, really strong oversold signals. We had good signals that allowed us to say, "That's it, we need to re-enter." Finally, therefore, what has carried us over these last weeks is new demand, new momentum dynamics, a nice structure, good location. So everything was in place to go back up. We benefited from it. Now, we still need to be vigilant about what's next. If we look a bit at the Fear & Greed index, the positive side is that we're still a bit in fear. I remind you that I did a post on the Medusa Crypto Instagram account. I did a little post on the Fear & Greed index. So it's a calculation that takes into account social media, futures flows, really a lot of data, and indicates that we are still in fear. So it's quite healthy to see that despite these rebounds, we still have a persistent sentiment of fear. We see a lot of good news on social media, a lot of people regaining a bit of hope with these rebounds. We need to be vigilant now. But well, we talked about it, we'll look at it. At the interest level here. Well, it remains mediocre, honestly. There's absolutely no interest. YouTube views are only falling. We had a small resurgence of interest here in the last month. You see here in the last few days, we had a slight

Interest has returned to Bitcoin's Wikipedia page, certainly linked to news concerning Vanguard and Bank of America, who would authorize Bitcoin to be integrated into their various authorized portfolios or even be valued and recommended. So here it was rather simple, but you see that for the moment it's not holding up, and for the moment it's especially very, very weak compared to the behavior we've seen in the past. So what's certain is that we're playing amongst ourselves, there are no new flows, and you know, no buyers equals no price increase, or at least no big price increase. So we'll take a look. Liquidation, we've talked about it, still a clear lack of euphoria on the altcoins. So that's very healthy, it means that the current altcoin rally is not happening with extraordinary leverage. And so that's very simple. We talked about the order flow part here. We'll take a look here at the position of long-term holders. We still have selling. This is still a bearish pressure that prevents us from going a little higher. As long as we have this pressure, well, unfortunately, it's difficult to make movements like we've seen here and establish a real strong bottom before an explosive rally, because well, precisely, we are fragile at the moment. Well, that didn't prevent a significant price increase here precisely due to a decrease in Bitcoin holdings by long-term holders. But still, it's a brake nonetheless.

Okay. The positive aspect, once again, is the accentuation of the fact that Bitcoins are leaving the exchange platforms. Okay? So we have a shortage in the supply, okay? So that means that for equivalent demand, even if we don't have more buyers, at least we have fewer sellers. And so that's rather positive for creating this famous imbalance that will take us a little higher. So it's quite healthy to see that here for a few days, despite the price increase and so on, well, it's a price increase that is happening with buying and storing, okay? hoarding. So that's rather interesting and rather positive. So, this really brings us into positive territory. Something else I wanted to show you was realized profits and losses. This is interesting because precisely, let's zoom out a bit, I'll show you what's happening. But you see that here, we had massive losses at the bottom. It's quite classic. Generally, bottoms are formed precisely when we have massive losses. So here, we'll simply look at when the Bitcoins were bought, when they were sold. So, if they were sold for less than they were bought for, they incurred losses, and we sum up all the losses, all the realized profits. And this gives us this curve, okay, which turns green when we have massive profit-taking and red when we have massive loss-taking. You see that here we had losses at the bottom, but also here during the small downward phase, okay, where I told you that well, it wasn't the end of the world, that we had simply returned to the major area of market interest, we were regaining liquidity, and so on, there was no need to worry. And well, here many people panicked, and this translated precisely into a loss here. You see two red histograms here with 2 days of loss-taking. And the advantage here is that, well, we have a slight profit-taking, but we are establishing an interesting structure, a price structure, so a nice W on the price at a time when we have losses. And you see that it's not insignificant because the loss we took at the bottom was more significant than the loss we had at that time during the crisis on Donald Trump's tariffs. More losses than we had here at the bottom in August 2024. And in fact, we'll have to go back much further to find equivalent real losses on the market. The last time was here, okay? It was here in March 2023, okay? On the first significant rebound post-bear market, you see that we had massive losses. Well, precisely, at that time, it's practically comparable to what we had here. Okay. Well, here it was more violent. Here, due to the crash related to the FTX situation. It was also a bit more violent during the Terra Luna situation as well, but you see that it's not insignificant. Here, we had similar losses, and such significant losses mean very important sellers. And if we establish a bottom on sellers when we have so many sellers, what does that mean? It means we've had buying. So here, obviously, we're a bit polluted by what we've talked about several times, which is the migration of cryptos from Coinbase, which migrated from one wallet to another. But here, we still have, well, Glassnode shares it, and Glassnode will ultimately not change its chart. They will stay there because they estimate that well, no, there's no chart error. Okay? So that doesn't mean that 430,000 Bitcoins were actually bought at these prices. But very certainly, given the level of losses we had just here. Just where? Just here. So I have what? I have, yes. No, here, there. The loss I've indicated just here, which is displayed just here, which occurred on November 21st, was indeed very significant. Of course, it's very much linked to what we saw with the Coinbase migration, okay, obviously. But however, it still shows us that here, we had a transfer and we had a loss at the bottom, and for the moment, it seems to be holding. So it's quite simple. Okay. Obviously, this famous Coinbase migration and so on is mixed in. Glassnode will not change its chart, a priori. I've seen a lot about this. I've had some contact with people at Glassnode. So they won't change. Indeed, there was a migration. Indeed, there were tokens that changed, but here they won't change. On the other hand, on the crypto quant side, they will change, particularly on the different cohorts, because this changes things on the cohort side. In any case, seeing that we had a low point that was well defended, well, that's very healthy. Okay. And currently, we've just had, right here, I'll come back to it, a new loss here. And this, again, is very healthy. It shows us that there is still some volatility. There is still some volatility, and bottoms, real bottoms, are formed precisely in phases of volatility. So that means we potentially have fuel to go a little further. Once again, this option indicator on open interest, the put and call ratio. Okay, we are still very low, so we still expect a rebound rather than a drop in Bitcoin. So that means that despite the current increase, there are no people closing their calls saying, "Okay, that's it. The objective I wanted is reached." Okay. So, so that's very positive. We have potential fuel, so the target could be, it could be precisely a return to the realized price by short-term holders, by the, well, the realized price by short-term Bitcoin holders, which is currently at $103,600. So, that could be a price target, we've talked about it, but each time after phases of bearish excess, we've recovered it before consolidating a bit, compressing a bit. Okay? This has happened so far in all correction phases, and well, it's totally probable that we'll recover it. 103,000 is a widely achievable target, and this would correspond a bit to the zones that could await us in terms of liquidity, okay? Maybe even a bit higher. Here, we've talked about it. Anyway, so we'll switch back a bit to the altcoin part if you want, and we'll take a look at what's happening. On the TRX side, you see that we're making nice structures. The price dynamic is very good. The structure is also very good. And if we look at Glassnode, let's take TRX again. So on the TRX side, you see that here we had precisely red lines. Now, this might scare some people to see red lines that have somewhat faded here. So you see red lines that have disappeared a bit. But it's simply because, in fact, we had here, you see a line with 8.5 billion in supply and a line just above with 100 million in supply. So, roughly 8.6 billion in supply in these two price zones. And if we zoom in a bit, you see that here we are at 6.3 billion and 3.3 billion. So we are almost at 10 billion. Which means we were at 8.6 billion here, and now we are almost at 10 billion. So if we zoom in, you see it right here at the current price levels, there is real accumulation. Okay? Here we're talking about 1.5 billion tokens that have been bought at these price levels. I remind you, 1.5 billion tokens at a price of 27 cents. Okay? So we're talking about practically 500 million dollars. Okay. So, it's rather healthy to see that precisely at these price levels, there is still accumulation. The supply of the top 1% is still increasing. So that's very, very positive. And honestly, for those who are looking to de-risk their portfolio a bit and have a truly long-term option, TRX for me is really one of the best options, if not the best option, to play a succession of cycles and to be exposed to crypto profitably in the long term. You see the curve here, it's really, really beautiful. And here, we've had two nice successive accumulation zones. Honestly, I think when TRX takes off, it will generate good returns. Okay. We have a target right here, which is between 47 cents and 60 cents. So from these price levels, that's a potential +60% or even up to a x2.5. Okay.

At Hyper Liquid as well. Nice recovery, nice recovery for those who reloaded a bit at the prices of $30. We've had a nice recovery. The RSI is starting to show some signs of strength. So that's also interesting. I don't have much more data unfortunately on the on-chain part, but here it's rather interesting. Okay? There is real demand for Hyperliquid, it's visible. We've had a nice distribution phase here. So there was an accumulation phase right here. Hop. And right here. And now we seem to be reversing the process a bit. Now, is it to do just a movement like this before going back down? Maybe. We'll have to be vigilant about that, especially during price expansion phases. It might be a token to lighten up on. But honestly, it's holding up well here, and especially when we look at the configurations of other cryptos, we see that this is a crypto that is supported. Okay? The fact that it's holding its support means it's a supported crypto. Solana, same, really quite strong, since here, about, well, 3-4 weeks. We are around, well, between $140 and $120, and we are oscillating within it, but you see there's strength, and this shows us that there's buying too. Now, it's not very powerful yet, and it shows on Glassnode because if we look, okay, let's take Solana. Solana, if we look, okay, on Glassnode, we still have what we had, which is selling of tokens by large portfolios. Well, they held 99.503% of the supply. Approximately. Well, on November 25th, a week ago, they held 99.502%. Okay. So they sold 0.001% of the supply. So it's quite small, but it's still notable. Okay. In any case, these are not price levels at which the top 1% is reloading. However, if we look at the cost basis distribution, there are some zones. You see, it's a real zone of combat, let's say, in which there are buyers, there are sellers, but there are small lines that are starting to be added. So, there are still people who consider this a good entry zone. Okay? And we also don't have walls here like we could have had right here or right here, which indicate distribution zones. For now, we don't have them in these rebound zones. So, we also don't have zones like here, accumulation zones that could project us a bit higher. But it's still interesting to see that. In any case, I'm watching this for the future, and I think that anyway, Solana is a crypto that's here to stay. It's sufficiently capitalized, sufficiently adopted, it generates revenue, and therefore, likely, a bullish RSI, a bullish structure, an interesting location, it can take us at least to the top of this range. And so, I honestly think that in the coming weeks or months, it's totally possible to see it rally again. A little caution, though. I'm taking advantage of it a bit, even though I'm selling you a bit of a dream. Precisely, be careful, here we have a nice double bottom structure. So honestly, usually they are sought after. So that means that here, this wouldn't be our real bottom. Potentially here, we could do something like this, just to reach here. Okay, hop, move on, and do this again. Okay, that's totally probable. We'll see what happens, but honestly, this is something that I anticipate. That's why in the short term, I think we can go up, but we'll still have to be vigilant because this zone at $123, I'm not sure it's a real, real bottom. So, a little caution nonetheless.

At BNB, there's really a lot of strength. Here too, I find that the chart configuration is really, really exceptional. It's great to have a token that has so much strength. That is to say, it has really made a nice parabola for those who were positioned here from $600. You could have easily made a x2, almost a x3. And then we had a nice correction that brought us, okay, if I take it from here, that brought us to the 0.618 level. Well, I can take it from lower. Let's take it from here, hop, from this wick right here. We've almost recovered the 0.618 level of this wick. And honestly, therefore, it's very healthy to see the price turn around here with some strength. You see, there's strength. We've made a real bottom, hop, bullish rebound. The RSI is showing nice momentum, a nice structure, an interesting location. Frankly, everything is in place to rally again. We have other cryptos, like Aster, for example, which I haven't integrated into the portfolio. At the time, we were here, I said it was potentially interesting. I didn't do it, it might be interesting to do it here. There's still very little history on this cryptocurrency, and it's in direct competition with Hyperliquid. The positive aspect is that it's supported by Binance and BNB. And we know that Binance knows how to support cryptos. So potentially it could go a bit further. I would wait for clearer confirmations on my end. You see that the RSI, well, it's not very clear because, in fact, we don't have history. Okay, so here we'll look at the Sui level. You see that there's a beginning of something. Okay, for the moment, it's still too weak to hope for anything with Sui. I don't know if I have much data on this. No, that's what I thought. I don't have much. So, well. Nowhere. Honestly, I think that here again, it's the same as with Solana. We have a double bottom structure. I really think that here we won't have the bottom. I think the bottom here is more around 1.1, 1.06, bottoms must be around these price levels. So, this is not a crypto I would add to my portfolio. AAVE, nice, interesting structure as well. I think here I have a bit more on-chain analysis data. Here, you see there's buying, there's buying that's accumulating. So here, we are below the entry levels of large portfolios. So here, you see there are still 1 million tokens at a price of $210-$218. Okay? So it's interesting to see that we have for about, let's say, $350 million in positions with an average price around $218. So we are below their entry level. Okay, 218 is right here. I honestly think there's fuel to go higher. Those who have AAVE, it might be interesting to keep it and wait for real reversal levels. Potentially a return to the resistance levels, whether it's here at $340 to $380. I honestly think it might be interesting to sell at that point. But here the structure is quite nice. The on-chain analysis is quite interesting. Let's look here if, yes, we have the top 1% supply that continues to accumulate, that accumulated a bit at the low, and so on. So there's still some fuel. It's a good crypto. I haven't put it on the watchlist, but it could easily have its place.

On Virtual, there's also strength and a bottom that seems to be in place. You see that here, we have a structure that's a bit prettier than, for example, Sui, where we had a double bottom structure with a rebound here, a break, a re-entry. Okay, if we manage to do something like this here, it would be great to have enough strength to break these levels before just doing a little thing like this and going back up. That would be great. In any case, we are well positioned in terms of structure, we are placing it in the right spot. So, we have the right location. The RSI is back in the positive. Here, hop, we have a small W structure on the RSI. So that's very good. Location, okay. Structure, okay. Structure, not yet. Okay. We would need a break of this level, even though honestly, we already have good indicators here. Okay. Interesting momentum, and especially on-chain analysis. On-chain analysis, which you know, I attach enormous importance to. And well, you see here on Virtual, the top 1% continues to accumulate, who, at the time, honestly, didn't own much. They owned 74. They sold a lot at the beginning. Finally, re-accumulation, massive sell-off, and since May 2024, really constant, constant, constant re-accumulation. This means that since around May 2024, if I show you here, hop, ah yes, linear. If I show you from this point, despite the enormous price rally, okay, we had a retracement here, but the top 1% continues to accumulate. Okay? And here, we have a nice re-accumulation structure. Honestly, this is a crypto that can perform very, very well in an explosive bull run phase. It has a very small capitalization, so it shouldn't constitute a significant part of your capital, unless you have a particularly aggressive risk profile. You saw that since our entry level at $1.2, well, hop, around here, we've lost 20%. Okay? And we could have lost up to 32-33% at most. So that's not nothing. Okay? If you have 100% of your portfolio and you had $10,000 in this, you lose $3,500. Well, that can stress you out a bit. So you have to be cautious. But this is a crypto that can easily reach $26, $3.4, $4, sorry, $3.9. It's totally, totally probable. Okay, we'll see what happens. In any case, here we're going back to the cost basis distribution part, you see that it's accumulating a bit here. We'll have to be cautious because, you see, we have a slowdown. Okay? A slowdown. Well, in fact, it's exactly like with TRX. We have a slight slowdown, but in fact, it's translated by the fact that we have a reload here. Of course, if you buy at these price levels and you had your average entry level here, well, if you buy a certain number of tokens, your entry price will be averaged down. Okay? And so here, you had how many? 33.3 million tokens, and you have 6 million here and 29 million here. Okay? So you have 35 million tokens, if my calculations are correct, and I hope they are. So 35 million tokens that are bought here at these price levels, okay? And you had 33 million. So that means there's re-accumulation in progress here. Okay? There's constant buying and a downward average price. Okay? Of the portfolio that currently held, well, it holds 35 million. So it added 1 million tokens to its portfolio. So it's supported. It's supported. I like it. If I zoom out, we should normally see it a bit more clearly. Okay. We should see it because, of course, when we zoom out, we have, precisely, slightly wider levels, and so here you see a big, big accumulation. Honestly, this can be explosive. I have it in my portfolio. Obviously, this is not investment advice because I have it in my portfolio because I have a particularly aggressive risk profile. Okay. Despite what you might think, despite the fact that I'm only invested at 80%, and so you might think I'm a bit reserved, etc., 80% at the current price level remains a bit aggressive, but you see a bit, at least I'm transparent with you.

At Dog, here we are at very interesting location levels. We are very, very low, okay? For this crypto, the trend is really not very good, but you see that we are making major divergences. Okay? Really major divergence here for a long time. Here, we found a low point on the RSI in daily. So here, we are making ascending lows on the RSI, and from there, we are making descending lows on the price. So, at some point, okay, the sellers will get tired. This is a weakly capitalized crypto, it's cornered. Okay? This means that many tokens are owned by the same person. If we look at Dog Go to the Moon here, 98.2% of the supply is held by this large portfolio that entered in February 2025, has held it all this time, and is not selling. So, in fact, despite the fact that we have a capitalization that is not so small, we're talking about, well, now $120 million. Of course, that's a bit low compared to the levels we reached, $500 million. Here we were at almost a billion market cap. So we've divided the market cap by 10. Logical. But here, we still have, therefore, a supply that is defended. Here, price levels that are not massively sold by this large portfolio. And so, we potentially have a price reaction that could be interesting. In any case, you see that the structures are quite nice on many cryptos. Well, here it's not ideal, but even just here on Useless. Okay, nice structure, nice location, nice momentum. Popcat, same, Mudeng, same. Now, what will play a role is a lot of the on-chain part, because well, let's look, I don't know, for example, Pop 4. Okay, you want us to look at Pop 4, we are below the support levels, we have nice reactions. We could recover here, even just 20 cents, make a x2 on Pop 4, a bit express like we did here. It's possible. It's not a crypto I would position myself on, even though I might have been positioned in the past on Popcat. But I've liquidated everything because, you see, there's no demand here, there's nothing at all, nothing, nothing, nothing. Okay? We have lines going down, which means people are buying and selling, but overall the average purchase price tends to go down. This means that in fact, there are phases of distribution each time, then it moves, it moves, it moves, it moves, it moves, and in fact, there's no re-accumulation. Everywhere we look, but there's nothing. Okay? So, obviously, this is a problem. This is what makes it so that, same for Mudeng, for example, which we might have owned in the past, there are no interesting signals yet. And obviously, I'm monitoring all these cryptos to try to see, like with Virtual, to detect what I was able to detect with Virtual, to announce it to you a bit in advance. Obviously, here, it's a problem to see that there's nothing left, there's no more demand. And when there's no more demand, the token price is doomed to collapse. So here, it could be a global liquidity flow on altcoins, but it's not a crypto that risks outperforming.

Then Harry Potter, Sonic 10, Obama Inou, we continue to have our famous divergence. We have here our support that we established in April, which is holding. Let's look at what's happening on Glassnode. I don't know exactly, I haven't looked in advance. Glassnode, whatever. Okay, let's look at it together. So there, yes, it's averaging down and averaging by sending positions. You see the lines, they are not just going down in an uninteresting way like here. Okay? We don't have the same levels of, well, the same quantity of tokens at a price that is really decreasing. Okay? Here, it means that we have, I don't know, let's say, 50 million tokens, 60 million tokens, we have 60 million supply. And the average price of these 60 million, in fact, each time, it decreases because we have people selling and people buying, but since they are buying lower than the current entry price, well, in fact, this price decreases. But there's no change in this color because there's no increase in capital. Okay? And here, there's an increase in capital since around this point, and here, a real major position is being accumulated. Okay? So I don't know who this group of portfolios is, whether it's one portfolio, a group of portfolios, etc., that is trying to play with capital to try to achieve a large upward movement. But here, in any case, we have something interesting, and I honestly think it could be interesting to play the rebound on this, and especially it's a crypto that, once again, is very weakly capitalized. So again, high risk but high reward.

Same coin, same. We are also at divergence levels that have been going on for a while. We are at support levels. We've broken the support level a bit. We'll have to be vigilant on this one. Honestly, if it weren't for the on-chain part, I would probably have exited this crypto, but here, seeing the accumulation continuing. Okay. And here, same, accumulation is continuing. It's quite interesting. So here, we really have entry levels, similarly, if we look at the market cap, we have interesting entry levels at the price with a capitalization of around 73 million. We were at 700 million in the past. That's potentially a x10 on a return to ATH. That's not at all what I'm selling you, far from it, okay? But here, even just to achieve a performance that recovers these resistance levels, or even the accumulation zone we reached right here with the 1 cent, well, that's potentially something we can target, and that's still a x8. Okay, so obviously, this is a crypto that has suffered greatly. It's been establishing a real bottom for a long time, and especially for only a few weeks, a few months, we're seeing it re-accumulate, and honestly, I quite like that, with the top 1% supply continually accumulating. Okay, for a long time. In any case, I like to see this token that's starting to move again, that's stabilizing by seeing demand again. Okay. So, here, we still have 17 billion tokens that have been bought at these price levels. So, interesting.

So, I'll stop here. I think, I don't know what you think, but I think it's pretty good. We have real emulation around crypto, and honestly, I think we have the fuel to go higher, to reach the famous zone, and well, and the altcoins should be able to benefit greatly from it. We have Bitcoin dominance that is still trending downwards, and so that's perfect. Okay, I'll stop here, 1 hour. Thank you. And we'll stay in touch anyway. Alright, see you later.