Transcription
Intel's up 15% on blowout earnings. Let's get to it. Here are the top parts. Then we're going to get to who's affected by it.
Intel Foundry 577548. So they crushed. Now I'm going to point out what I think is most important. Revenues are up and the revenue guide is up 158 to 168 versus 15. So that is huge. Free cash flow. They're going to have to explain the negative free cash flow versus the estimate. It's due to the buildout and they're talking about a $20 billion spend. We're going to get to that.
Data center CPUs are taking off. This is all from the CEO. Demand is outrunning supply. That is what everybody wants to hear. They want the bottleneck and that's why the stock's moving the way that it is. Increasing capback spending. This number is coming in at 20 billion and we're going to have to talk about that and the equipment that they're buying and the equipment manufacturers that are rocketing after hours. We have to go through those as well. So, at the time recording this or creating this for you guys, it was 5%. You hit 15%, you're up about 10.
All right, let's get to the names that you need to watch tonight. What the heck's going on? The rotation. Most traders are reacting to the institutional levels. What we're trying to get you to do here is to know what they're doing ahead of time. Subscribe. Click all notifications. What we go over here is timely by hitting the bell. You don't get it after retail is already in. The important thing is you get the information, education that you need. Subscribe. Let's get to it.
All right, there's a lot of moving parts here. So, we can see the news hitting and then we can see the rally and then we're just getting to a couple of these levels as we're digesting it. At the time of recording this, I'm going to talk fast because I want to listen to the conference call and you can see the time right down here and the conference calls at 5:00. But this buildout was exactly what Intel needed to do and them talking about the foundaries and that buildout did very well.
What's very frustrating for traders is when you're looking at these names like Taiwan Semi which are hitting lows and then rallying back up. It's getting super frustrating for people because you're hitting key levels and then you're rolling over. One thing I want to just point out to you and if you use this as a guide, it will save you a lot of heartache. You keep rejecting institutional levels. Remember when I look at names and this is how I do it. You should do it how you're comfortable. The 12, the 22, and the 55, they're not just moving averages to me. They are demarcation lines. So when I use the 12, that to me is can I put a swing on on this? Yes or no. The 55 is going to be do I have institutional support. The 22 is are the bulls in charge or the bears in charge. Usually over a 55 I will try a trade especially in semis and then I'll build on it and go from there. But what you're seeing here is just them walking us down. And a lot of this has to do with Google and we're going to spend a little time on that. But Saturday's deep dive video is really going to dive into what exactly is happening. Not now, Larry.
So, let's pay attention to this cuz I think it's super important. This moved up even though it's a foundry on this news. So, it actually rallied as soon as it hit. And this is Taiwan semi. And the reason is because it showed huge demand. If we just go to a bare chart, then we're going to zoom out on a lot of these. And I have the extended on here. But who really benefits from the capital spending? It's not Taiwan Semi that's getting a competitor. We can argue whether or not they are. They're not. But we could have that argument, right? And I know some people think they're going to be, but what names are staying up? Well, names like KAC, real suppliers, when they're just told, by the way, there's $20 billion that's coming your way. So, you have KAC, you have AAT. These are the semiconductor capital equipment manufacturers. And I strongly suggest that when you look at this stuff, it's really important for you to understand what names you want to focus on. Right? So these are the names that are actually moving and holding. Lamb Research as well. You'll see that lift up. 39% of their business is ND. And you have these levels from the previous levels today, those highs, and you're staying over it. And of course, none of this exists without the, you know, 800 lb gorilla, pardon the voice. And you can see that's the one that's acting the best. Clear shot up, rallies back down, and it's super thin, but these names are moving, and they're moving very well.
So, this was a really good report by any stretch. The issues that are going to be on the conference call that you're going to have to listen for are how does the market react to this capex number? Do they like the capex at 20 billion? That's the first thing. So, when you're listening to this call, I'll spell capex right. So, when you're listening to this call, you're going to have to pay attention to that. This is how they're going to do it. I'm just going to tell you how they're going to do it. They're going to do it through equity and bonds. It's not rocket science. They're not going to do it on rainbows, sunshines, and unicorns. They're going to have to go out there and issue equity and bonds. That might weigh on the stock when they come out and say that. That could be an issue. So, when they explain how they're going to do this, we want to watch the stock and see how the stock acts. It's no different, you know, when people in the community ask me these questions and they're like, "How do I learn, you know, fundamental analysis?" I'll tell you exactly how you learn fundamental analysis. You go and watch a market. This is a great example of it. You go watch a stock and you listen to the conference call and you stare at a chart and you watch when they say things. Even if you go back and do it later and there's no clearer example than Google last night when Google came out and said, "We're going to increase capex." Well, there's no faster way to learn that increasing capex is not having the desired effect right now on those names. But when you go to the names, and this was at, you know, 458, but you go to the names that they're spending on and say, "Well, how did those names do during the same period in time?" It's pretty obvious how those names did. There it is in the green line. And those names will actually lift on such news, right? They like that news cuz they're like, "Oh boy, we have spending." And if you look at that level today, they don't say, "Oh boy," but I do. And then you can see that actually became what? That area actually becomes the low of here. And you can actually even drill into this. It's crazy how it works. But you can see it was the one two punch move. Watch what happens when you just drop that down to that level and you go back to that for the day. It's super interesting how those levels work. So going back to Google and using that level or going to Intel and using those levels on the conference call tonight might be a good idea for somebody tomorrow that's going to trade those names. I hope that makes sense.
We'd be remiss if we don't spend a little time on going through what's going on. So the most important thing for me today was the cues and seeing if you were actually going to get over back over that put wall of 700. You didn't. You rejected it. And you rejected it even after you ran. So if we went here and did the simplest of things and just go to that 700 level and go right there and come across and drop that right to that level. Hold on, let me just pull this back and we'll go right to it. We can see that right in here. Right. If we go there on a one minute chart and blow this up, we can see that level. And really, we never could even get up to it, which is somewhat troubling. Now, tomorrow, maybe we have a better shot at it, but we couldn't today. So, that puts us in what I refer to as a pickle because you didn't undercut a previous low and flush and you just sat here. So, you would think, and there I go again, thinking that you have to undercut one of these, flush everybody out, scare them, and then rebuild. But that's on the short term. On the long term, depending upon who you are as a trader, this is what you have, Larry. I swear.
So, here's the 55 1 2 3 4 5 days now that we are below it. And we have the 12 crossing through it and the 22. So, I can feel any way that I want, you know, and I can, but at the end of the day, I'm trying not to laugh, but at the end of the day, this is what we have. And we have to play the hand that we're dealt. So to make this super easy, what you would do is put on a magnet, go right here, and just watch that level and see if you break 68562 tomorrow. And then if you do, well, then you realize that you have an issue. It's very hard to try to put on swing trades, even in subsectors when they're breaking out in an environment like this because the weight of the market is on you. So when you're trading tech like we we're doing a lot of right now, people are not understanding why you're not getting followthrough, why you have to take the profits right away. This is why that market's acting the way that it is. A lot of people don't get this. It's the core reason on why I view everything as index and then sector and then stock.
And I want to just be real clear about something. A lot of people that were on the wait list said that they didn't get an email and that I wasn't clear that the price is going to go up again for being on the wait list. So for those that are on the wait list. So I sent out an email for those that were up on the on there for 24 hours. So, if you're interested, uh, it'll be open for 24 hours and you should get an email today if you're in that grouping for that. And the link's in description if you want to get on the wait list, etc. All right, that's it. So, I just want to get that out of the way. But index sector stock. So, this is why you're having a problem. So, go here and take a look. So, semis are not getting over the 55 still. The 12 has crossed and we can't close over that anymore if we take a look at it. And so then cuz now we're at the 12, the 55, and the 22 is going to cross to the downside and we're not really getting above those levels. We need to I mentioned yesterday that the ASOC was getting above the 55. If I close here, we closed below the 55 today. And this is with Google coming out and saying that they are going to increase capac. Now, increasing capex is not the cat's pajamas. Just ask Google. Google was doing great until I showed you that chart and they increase capex and then it's absolutely imploding.
What you're seeing is a massive rotation back into the spending from the spenders and that's not really rocket science if you think about it. You mean the companies that are buying stuff from other companies are going to do better, right? No. The companies that are spending are not going to do better than the companies that they're spending money on. So when you go and take a look at something like a micron, it's not crazy that you're above the 55 and you're pushing higher. And the reason for this is super easy because this is what they're buying. So if you know what they're buying and you look at those names like Dell or Micron and SanDisk even tried today and then completely rejected when it got to that level of the 55, it completely rejected it. And what does that do? It tells you that yeah, you're trying but you're just not, you know, in the hot seat. So, even though I like what they're saying, if I go and take a look at AAT, well, you're holding your 55. If I go take a look at KAC, you're holding it. Lamb, no. So, you go through the names and then you make an order. ASML. I've been selling puts on ASML and doing quite well with them under the 55 specifically for this reason because if you're going to build on the capex side on semiconductors, you can't really do it without ASML. And I think that's a really important distinction. Using demarcation lines will save you a ton of aggravation. And I also like to stay with the larger names. But make no bones about it, the increase in capex is going to spread. And you see that today with the mags and how the mags are getting hit and they're getting absolutely unequivocally destroyed versus when you look at something like the socks today, which actually even though it gap down is green. If you take a look at DRAM on the day, let's clean off my thousand levels. You'll see that DRAM is actually making a higher high, but still below the 55.
Now, tonight, you're going to want to watch EWY and see how EWY responds to this and does it do well, does it not do well. These are the things that you're really going to have to watch and then make your own informed decision on. But make no bones about it, the companies that are spending, when Tesla came out yesterday and said, "We're going to increase our spending even though we missed and the car sales aren't going that great. We're going to build robots." which is he's been saying this forever but the market actually understood like oh wow you're going to spend billions and billions of dollars on this they didn't like it last night and as soon as he came out and showed how much spending he was going to do this is what happened with Google on Saturday in the Saturday deep dive we will get into the negative free cash flow for the first time we're going to address that and I think it'll be important for you to watch that video on Saturday candidly because it's going to be I already have it mapped out in my head on how it's going to go and it'll be one that'll really drive these points home on what the issues are. And I'll just throw this out there. You know, people look at Google and they're like, "Oh, it's not that big of a deal." And I'm not saying that Oracle's Google, but this is when Oracle flipped to negative free cash flow. And everyone's like, "Oh, well, it'll just trade down." You get a whole different kind of buyer or in Oracle's case, no buyer whatsoever. They are trying to find names that they can squeeze. So, you look at something like Now, for example, and they all thought they were going to squeeze that and then what happens? it misses the subscriber growth and then the shorts are victorious. So, we have to look at what's going on. Another really big short name that people are out there shorting is CVNA ahead of earnings. You have that put wall right here. You broke below it. So, when the market's telling you what it's going to do, it's not up to you to tell the market that it's wrong. It's up to you to listen to the market and for what it's actually doing. Right? That's it.