Transcription
Sorry guys, I did not know that I was muted. Oh my God. Someone just texted me. Well, a lot of you. Thank you for letting me know that. Guess I have to start over again. Okay, um, is the audio good now? Well, I've been talking for like, that's crazy, man. Okay, everything's good now. Yeah, never happened to me before. Happens sometimes, right? Okay, so I'll just let the video keep recording and I'll just cut the part where I where there was just other silence and no talking.
Okay, so today, everyone, we will be conducting a normal Sunday analysis where we will be using the Forex factory.com economic calendar to as a, I would say, a roadmap to give us information in regards to time, which is what we mostly focus on here. Time, time comes before price here, right? If you're in this mandate and you want to learn how to read price, first you're going to learn how to read time, right? And all of that starts right here, the economic calendar, every week, right? As you guys can probably know, those of you who are familiar with my theory, qual theory, this week, this particular week is not, it's, it's not a part of the theory, right? It's outside of it, right? So this week is not Q4. This week is not Q3. This week is not Q2. This week is not Q1, right? This week is going to be used as time distortion, right? Um, as you guys can see right here, this was Q1 right here. This was Q2. This was Q3. And this was Q4 of this month right here. We have a partial week, right? The next Q in regards to the monthly cycle will start on February 5th, right? And the true month open will be the 12th. Okay, I hope that you're following.
So this week, as you can see, is this week is comprised of two partial weeks which will be used for distortion, right? And as you guys can see, coincidentally, we have Non-Farm Payroll, NFP Friday, NFP during this week, right? So this week is low probability, right? Some of you took something from that more than you know, I was trying to give, which you'll know more about, but some of you guys know what I'm talking about already. Okay, so this week is predominantly used for manipulation to, you know, kick in a new trend, per se. As you guys know, the stock market, Bitcoin, everything has been going up for the last three to four months, you know, the last 60 trading days or so, or a little bit over that. So, you know, according to my analysis, you know, in regards to time, you know, within the next, within the next two weeks, we should see a shift in sentiment, which will be exciting, right? You'll see all this political news pop up, you know, these things happening in certain places, and you'll be surprised, right? And remember that I spoke about this before the fact, all right? And I'll give you guys more information on that later, but for now, we will just, you know, go back to the economic calendar.
Okay, so Monday, we can look for either lackluster price action, right? Consolidating price action, dead price action, or just a range forming, which, you know, would be, you already know what that is, that would just be D, right? So we would just see price action, not, we will just see price action either ranging just without any pullbacks at all, right? Any pullbacks at all, or we'll just see consolidation for now. Due to the fact that there are no news events on Monday, you know, we will by default do nothing. We'll just wait for Tuesday, right? We're traders, we don't go into the market and gamble, right? We need proper setups, right? And proper setups are given to you whenever we have these red news folder events. Like, listen, these, you don't need to focus on the orange ones or the yellow ones or anything else, right? The red news folder events are what's important. So you need to take this into consideration before you do anything else.
On Tuesday, we have news at 10:00 AM, which will give us something to do during the sweet spot of New York session, which is Q3 of Q3, right? So there, we'll probably be looking for something to do. On Wednesdays, we'll be looking for something to do as well, right? And I do not suggest trading 2:00 PM or, you know, these news events because these will hurt you, you know, during these times. We have price action which isn't pleasing to the eye most of the times, right? So for now, you know, you can focus on New York session. New York session is the best time to trade. So if you're, if you want to trade Tuesday, Wednesday, New York session, right? I know some of you are already going to trade this. I might, I don't know, right? But if you're new, do not do this, right? This week will not be the best week to trade. But, you know, after the fact, with looking back, with, you know, looking at insight charts, you'll be like, wow, I could do this and I could do that. But when you're in the live price movement, you know, you, you won't be thinking that due to how price will be moving.
Thursday, we have unemployment claims, ISM Manufacturing PMI, right? We have this in the heart of New York. I do not suggest trading Thursday if you're new, you know, and you know, most students from Michael or ICT, they usually say to shun Thursday during this time, which makes sense, right? You don't want to really be trading after Wednesday. And the only time you really want to be trading after Wednesday is over is after 8:30 AM. So after 8:30 AM, Friday, right? Yes, I suggest that you can trade on this Friday, but during Q3 of the New York session, right? So the damage will be done after 30 on Friday. You can trade then with this 10:00 AM news event.
Now, we'll be looking at the charts. Okay, so this is the Dollar Index. You know, we always start our analysis with the Dollar Index. And as you guys can see, I have these bright red lines, buy/sell liquidity here too, as well. Buy/sell liquidity above these highs. This is buy side too, but I just didn't feel the need to draw to draw a line there. All right. So next, like right here, during this price action, this cluster, I have no, no read on price right now. So I couldn't go in the market right now and press something. If price, like, was to this low and it fell below into this, you know, this V, this vacuum block, and you know, within this consolidation, I could see that as support, right? And I could look for something to do on the Euro dollar or the Great British pound, right? So here, right now, nothing to do. But, you know, I've already, I've been talking about this for a while. My ultimate draw liquidity is above these highs, these highs into this imbalance right here. So we can see, man, we could see manipulation, you know, below this low and price go above, right? And we could even see price break above this high and then, you know, fall back into this range. But currently, we have nothing to do. Look at all these cluster candles, right? Nothing to do. And today's an inside day, which is within the previous day, as you guys can see, which is even more low probability. Although, and it's already ranging, right? So ultimate draw liquidity is above. Right now, I am not bearish on the US dollar. I'm not bearish on DXY, which obviously means that I'm bullish, right? So we're looking for price to take us some low, you know, give us proper structure. You know, we could see SMT with EU or GU during the course of the next week or two weeks. You know, I'll probably be waiting for like that macro move to kick in during the center of February, right? During Q2 or Q3, the second or the third week within the monthly cycle. But now, there's no clear read on price due to the fact that, obviously, it is a distortion week, right? These things happen. These things will continue to happen. But don't fear when these things happen when you don't have an accurate reading price because it will get clear, right? These things are coded into the algorithm. It must happen and it will happen, right? And it's there for you to either take a step back, reanalyze the markets, or go into another asset class that's more clean, you know, anything that you prefer to do, or just stick to the one asset class that you trade if that's for you.
Okay, so ultimate draw liquidity is buy side liquidity, right? We need to see some form of SMT. You know, preferably, I'd like to see like SMT between like, you know, like four days. So if price comes here, takes out this low, and EU fails to do that to take out its high, then, you know, that would be something to look forward to.
Here is the Euro, is the Euro dollar, right? So you guys can see anytime you see me highlight lows or highs with a red line, that's my draw liquidity. We expect price to go within, you know, the next, the next three to four months, you know, I expect price to head that way, right? We have these highs highlighted right here as buy side liquidity. So if price could go above, you know, either go above this one, stop here, or go above this, you know, I'll expect price to come back within this range. After Monday's price action, everything will be clearer. But this week still isn't high probability, as most of the move will pro, move will probably take place on Friday. It's NFP week, Non-Farm Payroll week, right? There is no clear read on price. You know, the best traders that I know, my friends, you know, that I have, they probably not going to trade this week. Me, I'll probably be looking for something to do, but, you know, it doesn't make sense to stress your account too much this week. It's better to wait until the thorough weeks, even, you know, next week will be better and so on.
So ultimate draw liquidity is below these lows. And remember, I talked about this before the fact. I didn't say this high up here, right? So this is what we'll be looking for, right? We need to see proper market structure. There's no proper market structure here. Do you remember the last review that we, the last review slash analysis that we did last Sunday, where I highlighted this gap right here, right? This fair value gap right here is where I highlighted. All right, I stated that most of you guys remember, I think I wanted to see price go here before I do something, right? And price did that. Almost closed it. Closed the gap completely, but there's a small space left, right? Almost closed the gap completely, shunted into the opening of this bearish order block right here in time, and then it fell on the day that I was looking for it to do so. When was that? Wednesday, right? So this is why time is very important, right? Because using the economic calendar, you can see these things before they happen. You can know what will more than likely happen on which day by just looking at that. That's why I've been stressing this so much, right? Economic calendar. Or I don't have a week. I don't have a daily bias. In order to have a daily bias, you should have a weekly bias, right? Because in regards to time, price will react at a certain time on a certain period in respect to what the economic calendar says, right? So that's very important. If you know you haven't been looking at that, you've just been, oh, I'm just going to highlight PD and true open, then you're doing it wrong.
So yes, we had price trade above, remember this is the true open of the week, above the true open of the week and closed below it. So we had price trade above the true open of the week into a daily bearish fair value gap during the time of the week that I talked about, right? And then it broke down, right? This is just due to the fact of that it's generous price action, which is why you see price, you know, so choppy right now. It will get more cleaner. We'll see runs such as this, right?
And next, we go to the Great British Pound. Okay, right here, what I have highlighted is the opening of this candle, which is a rejection block right here, right? And we have buy side liquidity above these highs and this high, and ultimately, this will be my draw on liquidity after we see some form of manipulation, right? So currently, with the Great British Pound, lackluster price action, right? There's really nothing to really do right here. If you're trying to trade GBPUSD right now, you're insane, right? This is not clean price action, right? You know, I remember last week I talked about price rallying. I wanted to see price at least take out this high, but we talked about price rallying when price was around, I believe somewhere around here, and it did. So after taking out these lows, which we highlighted, if you remember clearly, right? On which day? On Wednesday, the day that I talked about. So price made the low of the week during this week, which we were talking about. And this was previous to this week, which we also talked about when we expect the higher of the week. So we have the low of the week here, Wednesday, when we talked about price taking out these lows, and then we had price rallying into this rejection block right here, into this quick Wednesday, making the high of the week. Amazing, isn't it? That we talked about these days. There will be times where we'll be talking about specific sessions, right? We'll be talking about specific hours, and even, um, deeper into the year, specific minutes. But now, we have to start here, right? You got to know the specific days that I had the LOB from before, you know, the specific session of the day, right? And we'll continue growing. So don't worry about anything. I don't want to confuse anyone. So this is why I start doing this first, right?
Okay, and now we'll go to S&P 500, one of my first lows. Okay, first of all, we have buy side liquidity above this high, right? As you guys can see, we saw price barely push above this high. I don't even count this as a running liquidity if it just barely goes over by like one point. Yeah, at least I say at least five points or so for me to consider a stop run valid. Even to me, right now, these highs are still clean. These highs are still clean to me right now. All right. So we have sell side right here and buy side right here. So we are, right now, we're in range in price action, right? We're in ranged, a range market in regards to the index futures, right? So if price goes above here or even just goes right here, then you know, we'll be looking for SMT, right? Within the next two weeks, which is where I basically draw this line, where I would expect that to happen, right? This week will be a lot of lackluster price action, and it's fascinating, or during the time where we should have time distortion, which is this week, which is not a part of the quarterly, you know, the quarterly cycle, which makes price easy to read, right? This week, we have time distortion, and look at price, even price is distorting at that time, and it's not because of price, it's because of the time, right? So even like two weeks ago, when, you know, we were trading or whatever you're trading or whatever, you know, this time hasn't, wasn't even, you know, didn't even come yet, but price knew that it was going to happen, right? And then it did what it's doing here, you know, when here started ranging just to create that environment for time. It's amazing, it's fascinating. But yeah, so we'll be looking for price to, I really want to see price run above this high, fall back within this range. You know, I am not bullish on the S&P 500 stock, no, know that. Right now, we'll probably see like one last like, right? And I'll see how that, what happens this week.
So the ultimate draw liquidity is here, right? Sell side liquidity below these equal lows right here. We have liquidity below here, which is my favorite type of liquidity, diagonal liquidity. We have a fair value gap right here, an imbalance, which I wouldn't be like trying to buy into because once price, you know, I, if I don't want to be picking tops or bottoms or anything like that to like encourage, you know, people who are new to try and do that themselves. We probably be doing that later, but not now, okay? But if price goes above here and, you know, breaks below this low, you know, and on the higher time frame, the daily time frame, we see some, we see a clear daily balanced price range, and price trades back up into that, then we'll be shorting on the one hour, you know, holding swing short for a while.
So we have sell side liquidity here again. We have an imbalance right here, which is a draw on liquidity, right? All of these will, will be filled in my opinion. I have to say that. So all of these will be filled in my opinion, this, this, this, this, right? This is not an order block. An order block does not have an imbalance above and below it, right? So this is a low probability order. And look at the wicks, the wicks are, the wicks together, the addition of the wicks together is larger than the body itself. That's not an order block right here, right? So I wouldn't, I wouldn't be buying this. If price, if price gets here, and then we have this low right here, we have this low here, but I, I highlighted this one due to the fact that it's more, you know, dominant, if I can say that. So we have sell side below this low and sell side below this low. What does this tell you? Am I bullish or bearish? Obviously, I'm bearish, right? But I need to see proper market structure on the higher time frame to allow me to press a button, right? We're about to see a lot of stuff, you know, unfold, which I won't talk about on this live due to the fact that not everyone will like that, right? And the markets will be good for us, but not for everyone that's up here buying, right? People are up here buying, waiting for, and if price breaks and makes a higher high, you know, they'll be buying, buying, buying, buying, expecting it to just, you know, rocket. That's not us, right? We buy where they sell, and they, you probably have people with buy stops right now, right here, that want to buy when, so when price pushes above it, they buy. That's where we pair our sell orders, right? We go in and we look, look to short price, break below here, go back here, boom, right? So definitely not bullish on the S&P 500 at all.
And now we go to the Nasdaq, the best thing that you can ever trade, in my opinion. So right here, we have this high, and we have, we have this high, which price really doesn't have to go above, you know, we, this could be, we could see SMT, [Music] between the ES and Nasdaq, right? Anyway, so this is, we, this is a draw on liquidity for me. It's rather close, but we don't need to grab that right now, right? We'll probably go above these highs before we break lower, or if we go below this low, I don't think that the, you know, the uptrend is completely finished. So right now, no clear read on price. So I'd like to see price at a break above this or break below this before I consider doing anything at all. Most importantly, I like to see Tuesday, right? I'll be waiting on Tuesday. So like Monday, if price goes anywhere here, then it's still none of my concern. I need that red folder event, man. Very important.
So we have buy/sell liquidity here, sell, sell liquidity here. We have an imbalance right here, will be a future draw liquidity. We have an imbalance right here, future draw liquidity. This is not an order book, right? And we have these relatively equal lows right here, but I highlighted this one, right? So this, this is what I expect price to be reaching for in the coming months after the trend changes. I need to see SMT divergence on the daily time frame in regards to the S&P 500, the Nasdaq, and the Dow.
This is the Dow, mostly we use this for analytical purposes, right? So we have buy side liquidity here and here, and we have sell liquidity here, right? During, since we are between, between this high and this low, which are swing high, which is a swing high and a swing low, this is range price action, right? So if price is bouncing from here to here, we don't want to trade. If price goes above this, then we could be looking for something. If price goes below this, then we could be looking for something, right? Ultimately, the draw liquidity for me is below this low right here, and yeah, this fair, this fair value gap right here. And if price gets down to here, I expect price to break through this order block, right? Good so far, you're, you're with me, right? So I'm not, like, I'm not expecting this to just be continuing higher and higher. No, no, no. I'm expecting something to happen within the next two, two to three weeks, right? But yes, of course, we'll still, like, before that, we'll still, like, see setups on the lower time frames, right? But once the trend change kicks in, which I believe will happen, then we will have very good markets to trade. We, not anyone else, because everyone here is bullish right now. Doesn't matter, like, everyone on their grandmother's bullish right now, which is good for us, right?
And that conducts our analysis for today. I hope that it was insightful and you took something from this, right? I'll, I'll be updating you guys with charts throughout the week as I usually do. And, you know, that Wednesday, you know, routine will be back. Wednesday, fully charged again, and prepared to learn something new. Wednesdays, or are the saucy days, right? These days I tell you guys what I think will happen with the markets. But Wednesdays, wait, didn't get sauce. Okay, so I'll talk to you guys Wednesday. And before that, I'll be sending messages in our private channel. So have a nice day.