Transcription
Hello friends, I hope you are doing well, that you are in shape, that you are full of energy. Very happy to find you again for this Bitcoin journal this Saturday, November 22, 2025, in front of a crypto map. What is this color? Wait, what is this color? Well, it looks like green. But it's not possible. Wait. Oh dear, that feels strange. A green crypto map. When I say green, it's good, it's 24 hours, it's a bit of a rebound, you see, but it doesn't smell too pretty. And here, well, what is it, what is it, green too for ETFs? But we were more used to Titans. It's crazy, American ETFs. They bought for 238 million dollars yesterday. BlackRock, they continued to sell. I don't think I've ever seen that. BlackRock selling and everyone else buying. That's quite unprecedented, you see. Well, so it's very, very good to see that yesterday, so how is it that everything became pretty yesterday afternoon? Well, pretty, a rebound, a rebound yesterday afternoon for cryptos and the stock market. It's simply John Williams, the governor of the New York Fed, who said, who simply translated, there might be an interest rate cut by the end of the year because in the short term we could make interest rate cuts. This can directly impact inflation, all that, all that. I shared all that with you on social media. I also talked about it this morning in detail in the news video, which I invite you to watch. So that's why I won't dwell on it. In any case, we finished Friday in a little green, which is pleasing. Ethereum ETFs were up 55 million. The market is still in extreme fear. My word, my word, we have rarely seen the market so low. I shared with you again today, as there are many on-chain analyses that show you the whole market is shattered, all on the ground. Basically, to summarize crudely, short-term holders are selling at a loss, as we haven't seen since the FTX crash in 2022. Everyone is in a panic, all that, and it's in these moments that we say, hmm, that's not bad. Well, and it's in these moments that the beautiful ones come and everyone thinks that we're all going to fall apart and that it's over, over, done. That's where it starts again, simply. So yesterday, well, the altcoins were a bit in the red. Red is not very pretty. Today is Saturday. So, we still have the widening of the lower Bollinger band here. The problem is that as soon as we started to give it a little tap here, on Monday, November 3rd, well, you see that it was rather calm, and the first tap we gave it, followed by the second, it started to widen. We were doing well, we went back up, but we came back down, boom, boom, boom, boom. So as long as the altcoins continue to smash this poor Bollinger band, it will continue to fall, fall, and the price will continue to slide on it. Well, it's as usual. Well, this is seen, reviewed, and reviewed again. To stop this, we would need to go back up, recover the 115 billion that the altcoins need to turn a little green again to integrate the bands. So the positive side to all this is that we continue to have good little divergences too, because the price is shattering. We have the MACD, the momentum, which is rising. So that's rather good news. After that, the problem is that the RSI is making lower lows, so we don't have bullish divergence here on the RSI. Well, but the good thing is that the RSI will soon enter oversold territory, and the last time it was so close to the oversold zone, the RSI was in August 2024, where it was really a big hit, and then the market took off again. Well, so for now, I think we'll need to tighten the screws a bit more, because on top of that, we don't like the structure too much. I talked about it in the VIP channel this morning. Whether it's a contracting wedge here, or a regular wedge, if they decide to make one last little upward wave to fall back down, well, that's not good. That's not very good. We don't want to see any ascending wedge or contracting wedge. We don't want that. You see, so here it's making a small A, a small B. If you suddenly see tomorrow, boom, the altcoins push up, you'll have to be careful because it could just be the small channel for impulse, correction, and boom, continuation. Unfortunately. Yes, it's not pretty again. Our little beloved Bitcoin, which is holding the 32, the 382 Fibonacci. The most important Fibonacci level. That's good news. So if tomorrow evening, tomorrow we'll do the long-term weekly analysis as we usually do. If tomorrow evening at the close of the candle at 1 am on Monday, so evening or Monday morning at 1 am, it closes above 84, we'll save the 38 Fibonacci. That will be good news. The problem is that well, Bitcoin continues to smash its poor Bollinger band, which continues to widen. At some point, we'll need a little green candle to re-enter, to say, okay, stop, we're not going to keep the Bollinger band going down, the candles should stop sliding down, and we should move up a bit. But for now, you see, as long as it keeps hitting here, the Bollinger band, bam, bam, bam, bam, the market will continue to fall. We are at RSI levels we haven't seen since, oh dear, oversold levels not seen since, since, since, since a very long time, since 2023. Here it was complete carnage. So to tell you that we are really at levels of fear, levels of selling at a loss, of realized losses. So there are often words we hear, realized or unrealized on the markets. Realized losses or gains means they really sold at a loss or sold at a profit. Okay, it's realized at those prices. When it's unrealized, it's not sold. So unrealized losses, unrealized gains, it means it's potential. It's there relative to the price, but it's not done. Here, we are at significant realized losses of several billion dollars, never seen since the FTX crash. So, the indicators show us that it's total carnage, while Bitcoin has only dropped 36%, you see. Well, after that, will it continue? For now, the structure is not very, very pretty either. You see, if it decides to make a kind of little regular wedge like this, boom, it will be the descent. So we don't really want ascending wedges, we want neither an ascending wedge nor a contracting wedge because these are two structures that mean that well, Bitcoin is telling us I might continue to fall, you see. So for now, it's not very, very bullish what we see for the next few hours, for tomorrow, you see. It could make a small wave up, go up a little, but then it could be the small channel for boom, we put another little dip lower. So for now, it's not mega bullish. So, since well, there are still some who are in the mode, "go, I'm going to catch the bottom with my big long." Well, there's liquidity up to $80,000. So, can Bitcoin go up to $80,000? Well, Cryptoc shared with us today, I already told you on social media, that for them, because attention, everyone has different calculation algorithms, the average purchase price of Bitcoin ETF holders is $79,200. I shared that with you today, while SNO calculated $82,000. Well, so, will we go below $79,000 to make people capitulate at the ETFs? I hope not, of course. In any case, well, for now, as long as it remains a small ascending channel, unfortunately, there will be a higher probability of falling to perhaps reach $70,000, knowing that there is a small wick, this wick is a one-minute wick, meaning someone just dropped 500 Bitcoin, 550, boom, and it fell to 80,600. Will we retest the small bottom of the wick? Well, it remains possible that this structure tells you boom, and on top of that, you have the futures that say hello, my friend, you see. Well, at the Ethereum level now, same thing. As long as it continues to flirt with the lower Bollinger band here, it will continue to widen, widen, widen, and well, what will the price do? Well, unfortunately, Ethereum will continue to do its little slide on it, the toboggan effect. So, again, there is good news. It's the oversold zone, an extremely oversold zone that we haven't seen in a long time, since April 2025. And the last time was in August 2024. So, it's one to two times a year that you see levels like this of capitulation, you see. And these are the best levels. Yes. For buying, for DCA, you see. Well, so, same as Bitcoin and as pretty much everyone else. If Ethereum continues to draw an ascending channel like this, boom, it will be the continuation of the descent to go and revisit this wick at $2,627. Well, so the structure is not very, very, very pretty. And the futures? Well, yes, you have a small cluster here to consider, you see. Well, since John Williams, president of the New York Fed, said, "Come on, a small rate cut for December," the probability of a rate cut skyrocketing to 70%. People are like, "Yes, it's the bottom, let's go, I'm putting my big long." And so yesterday, well, it was bought up quite a bit, you see. And then you also had a lot of longs positioned. So I wouldn't be surprised to break that downwards. Boom, to put in a little capitulation for the longs because they didn't have enough, you see. It's ironic what I'm saying, of course, and to go and reach the bottom of the wick. So be careful about that. Now, at the Solana level, Solana has calmed down a bit on its Bollinger band, you see, because it's a bit nicer. So yesterday it took a little hit, but you see it's starting to stabilize. That's good news. Solana is showing a small bullish divergence where the price is going down, the RSI is a bit higher, the MACD is the same. That's quite interesting. However, at the structure level here, on the 1-hour, well, it's still not very pretty, you see. As long as it makes a small ascending channel, it will be impulse, correction, and boom for continuation. So, what's not good is the small structure there. But what's still good is to see that we are in the overbought zone, that we are starting to have divergences. So at some point, the decline will get tired, the decline will run out of steam. It has to run out of steam at some point, and then it will take off again. And since yesterday was rather good news, well, there's also something to look for. So if it breaks either the contracting wedge or a small regular wedge a bit downwards, well, it will be heading towards $118. Knowing that there are no more gaps to close for Solana and for XRP. He continues to smash his lower Bollinger band. So it will continue to widen, and he will continue to descend. He also currently has the formation, either of a small contracting wedge which has a higher probability of falling, or similarly of a regular wedge. If we see one last little rise, be careful that it's not just the small ascending channel finalizing to fall. So for now, it's not very pretty yet. So there are a lot of big divergences here that are... wait, wait, wait. Let me see here. Uh, pom pom. No, I'll take the... No, no, there are no divergences. It's fine. So there are no divergences yet for now, daily. There was one that was a bit canceled because the price continued to fall. And so the objective of this small bearish structure, well, it would be to give one last little push towards $1.79. That's the idea. There you go. So, in short, everything is not very pretty because everyone is showing a small structure that has a higher probability of falling, whether it's a contracting wedge or a regular wedge. To cancel this, what would it take for everyone, for Bitcoin and everything? Well, look, I'll do it here for Bitcoin. To cancel this, it would take a big impulse followed by a bearish channel, and then it would smell like a return to the top. Knowing that well, there are quite a few billions to be made there, we'll have to deal with it. But for now, be careful, I'll still put up the little warning sign for the structure that pretty much everyone is drawing. It's not very, very bullish. Well, tomorrow, we'll see the weekly analysis. Very important weekly, to know what it tells us, does it stink? Does it smell like a few weeks of green? Knowing that we alternated while we had a lot of red weeks in a row, we'll have to have a little green week at some point. You know what I mean, friends? Courage to you. Be strong, I send you kisses, and we'll talk again soon. Bye bye.