Transcription
Hello everyone. I hope that you had a wonderful weekend. Today, here where I am, it's a holiday. But I believe that at most places, it should be a holiday today, which equates to, you know, us just going out and, you know, touching grass. I can't do that myself due to the fact that, currently, I am sick. So, bear in mind that there will be times whereas I will be speaking, and then there will be a brief, just a brief pause, which will probably be me coughing or something like that. And I don't want to record that, right? So, yeah, right now my throat is sore. Um, it's not bad, right? It's light, right? But, yeah, that's all.
So, today, Monday, right? May 20th. Right? There is a reason why I did not go live yesterday. And why is that? I wanted you guys to understand that the price action today is not important. What does that mean? Means that today is a day that, that you don't really want to do anything, right? Just as how last week, you can see how we approached the week, that's the same way, well, that's a similar way in which we will approach this week. Last week, we had most of the volatility on Wednesday. We had the manipulation on Tuesday, right? This week, we might have the manipulation and the volatility on Wednesday, right? Monday, what do we see today? Not much. We didn't see much today. Today was low probability price action, which is, you know, something most of you should look for whenever we have a day, well, a Monday without, without news events. Tuesday, you can see that we have no news events as well, right? So, tomorrow will be low probability. There is something, right? You can see that is always coming, right? With how I approach the markets, which how I approach each day, which how with how I see each day, right? A day without a news event is seen as low probability to me. Why is that? Because I have no indication, I have no, you know, nothing solid that would, you know, tell me what time to expect volatility, what time to expect an injection of liquidity, right? So, the days, well, the days of this week will be that will be high probability trading days will be when Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday will be higher probability than Monday and Tuesday. But not, you know, high probability for my standard. So, the best trading days would for this week would be Wednesday and Thursday. You can trade Monday and Tuesday, but if you do that, you'll realize that, okay, I'm getting in here, but the trades don't last a long time because there's not a trend, right? The trend has not been established yet, right? We're still within consolidation. The assets are out of sync. So, you have, yes, and NASDAQ, you know, staying in a range while you have the Dow drop or going up. And you'll have similar price action across, you know, the other triads, the Forex triads, and the interest rate triads. So, Wednesday, right? We'll be looking for a lot of volatility. You know, it'll be FOMC, so that's why we will be bet, that's what we will be expecting, right? Whenever you have two days, right? And this is something that you should write down. This is something that is important. This is something that is not common knowledge. Whatever you have days like this where you have Wednesday and Thursday, you know, the other days of the week after Tuesday having all of the news events, these days are usually, usually have very high in probability, right? So, Monday and Tuesday, when you have, have planned days, there's no news events, right? The high and the low of the week will usually form between Wednesday and Thursday, right? So, why between Wednesday and Thursday? Because there'll be some assets that will put their lower, the high of the week on or post their lower high, the week on Wednesday, then the others will do it on Thursday. So, the sequential SMT will occur between Wednesday and Thursday. Basically, that's what I'm trying to say. More time, not right in the asset classes which are poised to go in one direction, right? So, Wednesday and Thursday, the best days to trade. And even though Monday, as you saw today, it's low probability, you know, trash price action, and Tuesday will, you know, more than likely not give us the cleanness price action of the week, it's still, you know, something good in my opinion because that gives me more time to, you know, plan how I'm going to attack Wednesday and Thursday. And it should be something, you know, good for you as well. It tests your patience, right? And this is how you will have comfort in waiting by knowing that these days right here will not, might, will give you better price action to trade than these days right here. And there is no way that Monday and Tuesday can give, can give you larger ranges or a larger trend to follow than Wednesday and Thursday.
Here, looking at the index futures triad, right? You can see that. And I'll, I'll talk about this week soon. Then we go back to where we expected an uptrend, you know, our previous analysis, right? So, everything that you see in the screen right now, right? All of this movement right here, we saw this beforehand, right? All of this here, right? Let's look at this. Monday, last week's Monday. There were no news events. Was there any news events? No, there was not. But something important happened, right? Something very important happened here, right? We had the S&P 500 making, you know, a failure swing. And this is, you know, something that occurred with the price action of Monday, right? So, Monday occurs the day which you take the information from, right? Even though here, right, there, there will be times when Friday, this low, which is, [Music] the low, which would be posted before Monday, right? Even though if this swing low right here is not the lowest low of Friday, if Monday's low, right, is a failure swing, then we'll be looking at it, just as how we're looking at the highs right here. So, here, we had what? We had a failure swing, failed to break above this high. And here, what do we have? What do we have? A failure swing, a failure to break below this low. So, price was kept into a range right here, right here. Same thing again, failure swing. And here, at the lows, what do we have? Failure from again, right? So, now, I hope that this is not confusing to you, right? But this is, you know, by far, one of the easiest ways where you can spot a reversal, you know, when there is a breach of liquidity, right? So, here, right here, it, it's not really anything to do with, you know, high your time frame, Peter, although those will help, right? But it's just that here, we had what? Failure swing, right here. Then here again, oh, we have a failure swing. Then this happens, right? Between the two most prominent, you know, members of the triad that you're looking at, right? So, between the S&P 500, we have symmetrical price action, right? But in the Dow, now, this is what we have, right? We have the Dow breaching this high right here, which created sequential SMT, you know, on a Monday, which sent price lower for the liquidity below this low here. What do we have again? We have price, you know, trade below this low right here, then return into the range before, you know, taking one last step to get everyone that was, you know, already long out and breaking below this low, which would also trigger sell stops, right? Accumulating liquidity, which is what the algorithm is doing right here, right? So, this right here that you see happening is algorithmic. This right here that you see is not something that you, you know, that the normal eye would see. Why? Because they're not looking at triads. They're looking at, you know, one asset class. They're looking at one, you know, pattern. They might see this within the Dow, but they won't be comparing it to the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ, right? So, here, what do we have? We have this, which was a range being, being formed. And as you can see, these are two totally, you know, these ranges, comparing the S&P 500 and the Dow, it's two different types of ranges right here, as you guys can see. Again, I'll do this one last time. It's two different of for Ines, right? As you can see. So, here, we have higher high, lower low. This is where you, you'll see that, okay, this is real liquidity. The only thing that you'd be looking for now is when price trades below that low, you would want to see a precision swing point, right? Which we did see, right? Which is why, right? Even on the stream that we did, what would, what did we expect? We expected higher prices. And what did we get? That's what we get. See, right? And we'll be, you know, attempting to do that this week again, which is not an invitation for you to just place a trade without doing analysis, right? It's not an invitation for you to do that. Even though more times than not, we will be correct. And this is only to the fact that we are following the algorithmic nature of price. We're doing something or anticipating something that price has, you know, been doing over and over again since the beginning of price itself.
Today is why is today considered as low probability? First of all, it's a Monday without news events. And here you can see the Dow trading lower while we have the NASDAQ basically, you know, not doing much. And then we had the S&P 500 barely doing anything at all, right? So, today, you know, and tomorrow as well, will not be one of the best days to trade. The best days to trade where as we had, look here, all of this, the manipulation and the distribution here, what happened? There were high impact news events, right? High impact news events. That's what we wait for. That's what will give us these types of moves right here. High impact news events, price moving right here. High news event, price moving here. No high news events, what happened? Nothing, right? So, it should be pretty easy for you to understand that that when there is no high us event, you have liquidity being built on both sides, right? And you, it is also visual liquidity, just as here we had the higher high and the lower low, right? So, turtle soup, or at least one of the assets, right? Turtle soup will be the high. Turtle soup will be the low. Then price will return to the equilibrium of the range. There's usually a fair value gap within the equilibrium of the range, just there's one right here, right? Now, we're looking at the Dow, right? And that, that right here is usually transferred over to the, you know, ladder move. So, we'll just use the, we will just use the high of this fair value, which turned into an inverse fair value gap right here, right? So, turtle soup here, here, price right below this low, returned to the equilibrium, broke below this low, right? Tricking short sellers, everyone that shorted right here, took this, what is it, ICT 2022 model, you know, then, you know, aiming for this low and this low. But what they didn't see is that here, right? This was a failure swing, and this was a failure swing. And then they did not see this right here. What is this? They did not see this precision swing point. And most importantly, they didn't see the, they did not see the intermarket sequential SMT.
So, what's, you know, something that you should look for, right? You have, first of all, the days prior to the day that you're planning to trade, right? You're looking for a swing trade, or an intra-week trade, or even an intra-day trade, or you're just looking for a bias. You're looking to trade in because right here, looking at the Dow, you can trade this right here, but you'll be stopped out when price came back up. Does that make sense? No, not really. So, you're trading, first of all, you need to see a range form, right? You need to see two out of three of the assets, right? Post, you know, failure swings on both sides of liquidity. You want to see, this is why I always say that the best trades, right? Occur when we have price action like this, right? Look at the S&P 500 right now, right? Right, price isn't, didn't break above this high here, it didn't break below this low, it's still within consolidation. So, the day where you have a high impact news event and you see that push of liquidity and you see sequential SMT or intermarket sequential SMT, it's very clear-cut. It's very easy to know the direction which price will go after that, right? It's not hard, hard to understand. So, before, right? You get, you know, moves like this, you need moves like this, right? Because if you, you know, the first thing that, you know, video that you ever saw from me, you know, for educational purposes, was that YouTube video which stated, right? First thing that I ever taught, model AMD, it's very simple to understand. It's always there. But when is it there within the week cycle? When is it there within that specific, you know, amount of time? When is it there whenever you have Q1, and you already know this, you know, accumulated Q1, accumulated. Okay, let's make it more specific, right? Do you have it during the week whenever you have Q1 accumulating, right? And you have, for example, one asset class for the highs pulling swing lows, and the other asset class for lows posing, posing a failure swing. So, you have failure swing of the highs and failure swing of lows. Price is within, right? The range right here. So, for example, imagine just as saw last week when we anticipated this, this candle didn't happen yet, right here, looking at the S&P 500, this candle was not there yet. All that was there was this chop, right? Which is the best thing, right? But whenever this chop, price is just waiting to inject that, you know, liquidity that, you know, must be injected for price to react this way, right? So, it was very obvious, right? Because on Tuesday, we had a high impact news event which pushed price below this low, then it was obvious that price would continue going this high. It was obvious that this was a low of the week. I was obvious that this was a low of the week because this was the only, right, right, substantial, the only one, the only intermarket sequential SMT that was posted, and it was a precision swing point. If you have a precision swing point here, and I don't believe that we had a sequential SMT here, right? But I'm just, well, we did have a sequential SMT here, I believe. But listen, if you have a precision swing point here, but and then you have a sequence SMT here, the intermarket sequential SMT will overpower this. This will be seen as a shift of market structure. The low, the week is already in. Then what else for manipulation to occur? Unique days, right? Prior to that day that you have the manipulation with no news events, right? So, here, this would not be manipulation because the day prior to that, there was a date with news with a news event, right? So, Monday and Tuesday, there's no news events, then Wednesday, price trades below that low, trades below a low, trades above a high, there's the intermarket swing point, and price falls. That's the high of the week, right here. Price, okay, here, price trades of this side on Wednesday. There's a news event on that day. There's a news event before that day. Was that manipulation? No. Price are going to continue into that direction. The manipulation is done. Days without news events are used to build liquidity for the algorithm to, you know, run one side, then continue way above the other side afterwards, right? So, here, here, right? This low to this high, this is where you, your standard deviations would like, you know, come into play, right? So, this is what the algorithm does. You can study that after, right? Liquidity is built on days without news events. Days on days with our news events, there's liquidity being built, right? Price trades below those days, right? Right here, trades below Monday, continues for the entire, for the rest of the the week, you know, that's what we'll always see happening. And this is why on a day without news event, you know, we all you do is help if you want to do anything at all, right? For me personally, I would rather to like be on this candle or at least this one or this one right here and get out here, you know, that's what I would like to do. But, you know, to each your own.
Here on the Dow, right? You can see and let's go back to this. I was talking too much about this, but, you know, it's very important to understand, right? It's something that will help you also. Yeah, let me talk about this too. Remember, and this is, you know, the reason why last week I did the live, same time that I'm doing it now, right? So, this time is important, right? 6:00, 6:00 p.m. that just passed. It's 6:28 right now Eastern Standard Time. That was the true open of the week, right? You want to see the high or the low of the week, right? Posted after that time, right? And it, it's more important, it becomes more important whenever there is. Because there are certain days, right? That or certain weeks whereas the low, the low, the high will be on Monday. And when is that? That that only occurs, right? Listen to this. That only occurs, and that will be, you know, can be confirmed after I'll say, you know, Tuesday or Wednesday. That's only, that only happens when there is a, you know, there is sequential SMT between the previous Friday and the current Monday. So, like, you know, last Friday would have sequential SMT between the high of that day and today, and that would, you know, cause price to reverse. But, right? Whenever you have price action like this, right? And then you have the, the only thing that would look, you know, take this, you know, or make these highs not as important because last week we had SMT here, but what happened here that was more important than this? We had intermarket sequential SMT. So, this day, you know, between the days where we had Friday high, Monday high, failure swing, Friday high, Monday high, right here, Dow, you know, in sequential SMT, price dropped. In terms of the SMT here, and price continued higher. And there was a precision swing point, right? So, it's pretty easy to understand, right? If you have SMT at a high, then intermarket sequential SMT at a low, where is it on a swing point, then that SMT at the high is just a market structure shift. If it was a stop run.
Okay, now going back to the Dow here, right? This fair value gap right here, right? For all in time, right? And right here, we were, you know, bullish, right? Someone asked on the stream, um, send signal or higher or lower. And, you know, and that's not something that, you know, I like doing. I've done it multiple times in streams. I've done it multiple times, right? Even just by posting charts, right? But that is not the mentality that I want to implement. I don't just want you guys to be relying on me. I want you to see this for yourself, to be able to do this for yourself, and to become better at doing it every single day and or every single week, right? So, that is my, even though yes, I will be doing it, right? But the main takeaway is just to, you know, understand the mechanics behind the reversals that occur, understand why this happens, understand and see that I'm always looking for, you know, similar things, right? So, yeah.
And now looking at the US Dollar Index, the Euro, and the Great British Pound, right here, right here in this shaded area, this is Monday's low, right? Right here will be Monday's high, right? And this would be Friday's high, right? So, due to the fact that they're in such close proximity, right? And I, that's why I, you know, drew the box like this. Also, we had this right here, right? Which would be a, this was a new day open gap, right? Slash volume imbalance, or and right here where you have the wicks not meeting each other, that would be a, what ICT calls a vacuum block, which I don't really pay much attention to. I don't really pay much attention to. And this is important, right? There's sometimes I say stuff like this, and it seems like it's not important when it actually is, right? Here where you see this right here, I, I will not consider this as important if, right? There is no new day opening gap here, right? So, this would be not important to me unless there's a new day opening gap or a new week opening gap. Anyways, here you see price broke higher, right? And this is something that we were looking for, right? Price broke higher, then continue lower, which did happen, right? Here, what, what do we have? There was SMT, and here, here, there was SMT, right? And this sent price higher, right? That's what sent price higher. Currently looking at this type of price action, right? We have liquidity. Looking at the Euro, we have liquidity above this high, this high. We have liquidity below this low. What do we want to see? We have liquidity above this high again, right? For the British Pound, of this high right here, and below these lows are all below these lows. What do we want to see, right? We want to see what price does, right? Going into tomorrow. And the only thing that would allow us to, you know, press a button, right? Well, for me, right? I demand high probability price action. For me personally, since my son has been, I've had, last time that, you know, I can use to be scalping every single, every single day. Sorry about my throat again, right? So, mostly, most of my trades are either intraday or intraweek, right? Or a scalp. And in my opinion, that's the best. But those are, right? The best ways to trade. Scalps are cool, right? But sometimes you will get, you know, over yourself. You will have a series of wins which will make you seem as if you are, you know, you know, like God, which you are not. You will eventually lose sometimes, right? And when you're scalping, you will usually not be taking a look at the larger picture, the actual order flow of price, which is this is important right now because sometimes I'm just talking about everything is important, right? Which is characterized, right? By what? The price action which occurs during the days of the week, right? The days of the week are very important. The weeks of the year are very important as well for, you know, price to construct or to build a one-sided movement of price.
I hope that this was viable to you. We will be back 30 minutes before, um, FOMC on Wednesday, right? If you're trading, remember, right? Lock in. Don't trade if you're, you know, undergoing any type of, you know, anxiety attacks, anything like that. If you're angry, don't trade, right? You need to learn how to control your emotions, right? You need to focus. You need to be locked in. You need to be like a robot, right? That's how you should function. So, again, Wednesday, we will be back. And then Thursday, we'll be back in the morning. I believe I already posted that. So, I hope that you have a wonderful week and I hope that you found something insightful from this today. Have a wonderful [Music] day. All you want to me, it's a b OB session. I am the walking T on burning the stream. How many times can I ask you? How many days can I go without you be [Music] [Music] [Music] distance SC a killer [Music] the of how many days can I go with [Music] n [Music]