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Hi, I'm Ral Pal and welcome to my show, The Journeyman. The journeyman as you know is that journey to the nexus of understanding between macro crypto and the exponential age of technology. Several years ago I developed a thesis called the everything code. The everything code is my all-encompassing macro framework that I've built over the last 35 years that that builds upon the giant demographic trends. how that leads to a growth in debt where the entire western world plus China and Japan have been involved because of the same demographics issues and how that that debt is managed by the debasement of currency and liquidity in order to roll the debt and how the debt is cyclical. It's generally between a 3year and 5year time horizon and why that causes the economy and markets to be cyclical including crypto and how to navigate it and how to get forward read on it and a forward read on it. We use things like the global macro investor financial conditions index leads by 9 months and we also use the global macro investor uh global liquidity index which leads by about six months. the and those things in combination with M2 and our other indicators give us a really decent probabilistic read on how things play out.
Now, we are kind of pioneers of this whole structure, but there's one other person that you know well who also looks at the world through a similar lens. Now, it's not quite the same, but he's truly a pioneer um in in this kind of debt cycle analysis and global liquidity. And that's Mike How. Um and Mike is always a firm favorite when he comes. We swap notes, talk about what we're seeing, what he's seeing, and as ever, I think you're going to love this conversation. It's going to give you a really good idea of where things are headed, what the structure of liquidity is, what it means for markets, and what it means for your bags. All right, I'll see you after the interview.
Join me, Ral Pal, as I go on a journey of discovery through the macro, crypto, and exponential age landscapes. In the journey, man, I talk to the smartest people in the world, so we can all become smarter together. Mike, great to see you back on Real Vision as ever. Well, good to be here, Ral. Enjoying looking forward to it. Yeah, look, lots to talk about. Um let's start with the global liquidity picture at top level where we are from your framework where we are from your understanding and then we'll deal into dig in some of the regional stuff because there's lots of interesting things going on. I read your note this morning about Japan I think that's interesting as well. So at top level where are we in the liquidity cycle what are you seeing?
Well the answer is we're late. It's not inflating downwards yet. We're still in an upswing, but you know, we got to remember here that the liquidity cycle is what 34 months old. Um, that's pretty mature. Uh, as things go, uh, we got to be thinking of what could be the endgame. There's no, I don't think there's anything on the horizon that could necessarily disrupt things, but, you know, there are clearly problems building. And I think you know as we look into 2026 and probably beyond I mean there are factors to think about and to my mind I mean the two biggest factors I mean number one is that there's a lot of debt that's got to be refinanced out there because debt was effectively termed out during the COVID crisis large amounts when interest rates were zero and that's coming back into markets to be refinanced really from sort of later this year but through 26 27. And the other thing we must, you know, remember is that, you know, strong economies don't always have strong financial markets. And the fact is that you've got, uh, US tech companies currently investing, what is it, a billion dollars a day in it and infrastructure. And, you know, over the course of a year or so, couple of years, that's going to take about a trillion dollars out of markets, uh, out of out of money markets. I mean, these these are big amounts. So these companies may be seeing decent profits growth but their cash flows are really plunging and that's got to be a problem uh for financial markets uh in particular.
So let's dig in a little bit to the to the slowness of this cycle versus others from from our work is like normally the liquidity cycle peaks around the business cycle peak. You know they're all you know related and the business cycle has been super low. If you look at the ISM, it's been below 50 and the the strongest correlation to that is rates have been too high for too long and that has kept the ISM lower than expected which means it feels like it's elongated the liquidity cycle. So that's one factor that I'm looking at. The other one is the fact that they've been shoving everything into the bills market and not refing you know in let's say the 5year sector that's kept this this you know cyclicality. Um and I don't know if that structure is changing things because it requires ongoing liquidity as opposed to cyclical liquidity. So firstly the business cycle and interest rates and then you know whether the structure of where they've been issuing makes a difference.
Yeah. Well I think the I mean the first thing is we don't seem to have a business cycle and if you look at uh almost any economy since the COVID crisis uh everything's kind of flatlined. So there's there's no obvious business cycle around and you know we can conjecture as to why that may be. Is it because fiscal policy is dominant whatever but the fact is that there's none. There is a liquidity cycle and that seems to be paramount. And the interesting point is which I'm sure you'll attest is that you know financial markets are responded not to the real economy they responded to the liquidity cycle. That that's what's going on. So we need to understand this like it or not. I mean it's become the paramount issue in markets as far as we can see.
So I think that's that's true and I think your point that about bill issuance is is really critical and you know the way that we've um sort of I suppose explained this before is to say what you're getting is a transition crudely from Fed QE uh to Treasury QE and the Treasury are basically coming in and issuing a lot of bills. They're starving the market uh of longdated coupons. So there's not the liquidity absorption that you would expect. um uh people are being forced into the short end. Two things really come from that. I mean one is that uh there is uh lower volatility in markets as a result and in fact we know the Treasury is very keen to actually keep volatility down given the way they've up these buyback programs. Uh so that's significant and if you get a lot of bill issuance and shortdated note issuance the banks buy it with elacrity because this is the sort of security the banks like that matches deposit growth and if the banks are doing that they're effectively monetizing the deficit. So I think that's the route to a trend increase in liquidity over the medium term. We know governments basically have to find ways to fund themselves and what better uh through this mechanism.
And do you think that this stops them issuing at the longer end um or is it just a delayed process until they can get rates lower? And we'll come into that in a little bit. But is this a structural change that's going to ongoing and because it's bills that that feels like ongoing stimulus and it might change this whole cycle?
Well, I think the answer is that it's uh it continues until it doesn't. And the fact is we know that these things always end badly because they tend to end in inflation. Uh and that's the experience we've had in the 1970s. So, it's going to go on as long as it uh as long as it does. Uh and then it will be forced to stop presumably by concerns over inflation pickup. Now, I think everything they're doing is trying to bury that inflation news by whatever means, fair means or foul. So, we're never too sure what the inflation rate is. And I'm always, you know, instructed by the fact that, you know, one's personal inflation rate is always way, way above what you read in the CPI. So, there's obviously a lot of manipulation going on in anyway. But the fact is you've got inflating asset markets which is really testing testing for the fact that you've got strong monetary inflation and monetary inflation is not just a cycle as we know, it's a trend. And that trend is accelerating. And I think what the world doesn't realize is that that things have changed dramatically since COVID. Uh we're in a world of monetary inflation, monetary debasement. It's not, as I keep stressing, it's not one of financial repression. It's one actually more, it's worse than that. It's actually monetary inflation. And you've got to start thinking about uh how to invest in a monetary inflation world.
Yeah. And you know, and both of our hypothesis is you know, longduration assets tend to do very well in that environment. And we've seen that with technology, stocks and crypto. Uh you know, gold has acted very well in this environment as it should do. And you know, all the signs are there that the debasement is ongoing and it's not going to go away. One of the things that um is interesting to me is obviously Trump and Bessant have focused on what they can do with the Federal Reserve. You know, the the shenanigans around changing the governor and various board members. Clearly they want to see if they can force interest rates lower. I think personally interest rates are too high versus uh GDP or you know whatever your kind of real interest rate measure you look at. Um and that there's room for rates to come down 200 basis points which allows them to refinance again. Any thoughts on on the kind of Fed board shenanigans?
Yeah, I mean I I'm silicon enough not to think it really matters too much. I mean, at the end of the day, I don't think the Federal Reserve really controls uh interest rates, certainly across the curve. I mean, it's rather the other way around. Long-term rates tend to drive the Fed rather than the rather than vice versa. So, you know, ultimately you've got to say, well, okay, what's the what's the fair value for the long-term bond? And that has to be related to nominal GDP growth ultimately. So, you're talking of something like about 5%. And then you take what is a normal spread between the short end and the long end. What is it? you know, 125 basis points. So, that gives you your benchmark for Fed funds. So, there's not much they can do sort of either side of that. Um, and they can dance on the head of a pin and come out with their, you know, their projections. But re in reality, the FOMC doesn't have that much sway. I don't think it's really a signaling tool more than anything else. Uh, as far as I can see. Uh, what matters more is is really the balance sheet, what they're doing there.
Yeah. Yeah, I mean although the other side of this is we're all kind of expecting yield curve control in some way, shape or form at some point just because of the debt refinancing mechanism. And one of the things is interesting is and I only read about this this morning that there is some changes in the Federal Reserve Act that may allow them not to pay interest on bank reserves which would force it into the bond market. um that feels like, you know, a backhanded way of yield curve control by forcing banks to go further out the curve. Does that factor in at all?
Yeah, it could be. I mean, I think there's a there's a lot of, you know, all these things that they're lining up, you know, whether it be, you know, elimination of the of the SLR, the supplementary liquidity ratio, uh, you know, whether it's changing stress test rules, all these things are really trying to get the banks, give the banks more capacity to buy government debt. And we know ultimately this is you know this is what tends to happen in a monetary inflation. Uh banks tend to come in and buy government bonds then monetize the deficit and that that's the route that's the route to to funding. Uh the question is how quickly we are we going to get there. Uh or how quickly we get there and inflation really becomes the the issue. I think they can probably push inflation down over the longer term and I think there's a lot of factors in there in the equation as you will know things like AI which are probably going to depress uh consumer prices but at the end of the day what makes all this very confusing in a way is that high street inflation is very different from monetary inflation and you can have a background of strong monetary inflation but because you get you know cost deflation otherwise productivity wins or uh cheap Chinese goods the high streets less affected for some time and ultimately investors have got to invest about around monetary inflation the debasement of the currency much more than uh what they're seeing in the high street but it will come through in the high street at some stage.
Yeah. And it usually comes up as the business cycle picks up as well if it if it does pick up which I I think it does. The other thing that's that's been interesting to me is the shift in how the Fed and the Treasury have kind of managed the debasement. It started simply with the balance sheet. Then everyone kind of figured out that game and then it turned into this Fed net liquidity game and now it's gone to what we look as a total uh liquidity which is including the private sector because they're now using the banks as their main mechanism of debt monetization. Does that make sense to you?
Makes complete sense. Uh absolutely. I mean I can put up some charts if you if you want me to to Yeah. Go demonstrate what um always love the chart. So in terms of where are we in the cycle uh this is our liquidity cycle which goes right back to the 1960s and the sine wave there is something that we fitted back about actually about 20 years ago in the year 2000 to show you've got this 5 to six year cycle which is I think different to the way that you see it in terms of a fouryear cycle but uh you know this is this is based on uh on an analysis of of the of this liquidity data now how early or Later are we in this cycle? Well, you can see that this is the normal cycle. The dotted black line, the low point is the is the trough of the cycle and the red line is where we are now. So, this this looks late. I mean, we got to we've got to accept that. Uh it's we're late in the cycle. Doesn't mean it's about to end, but we got to we've got to know we're nearer the end than we are at the beginning, and that's clearly an important factor.
Now, do you think when do you think it finishes? By the way, my my view is it's been extended. It normally would have finished sometime this end of this year, but it feels like it's going to push out into Q2 next year.
Yeah. I mean, that's that's almost exactly where if I go back to looking at this cycle, that's where we would sort of suggest it's probably going to inflict sometime around about early uh 2026 uh thereabouts. Now this chart is the one I use as a parallel to say you know is there a similar cycle that you can think of and I think back to the 80s as maybe being the the benchmark rightly or wrongly. uh you had the Plaza Accord, you know, disso the Mara Lago accord. You had rising inflation, you had bond markets uh yields edging up, you had commodity prices beginning to boom, uh and then you had the crash which was pretty much triggered. Um I'm old enough to remember it, but um it was triggered by the Germans saying they were thinking about raising interest rates which spooked uh Treasury Secretary Baker at the time because the US were really angling for lower rates uh a bit now. And then you know the proverbial um you know SH1T hit the hit the fan and market uh investors realized that the liquidity cycle was about to reverse and that's what happened. Now we could easily be as this diagram says you know a good six months away from that. Um so you know watch this space but we got to be alert to those to those factors.
Now to come to your point about and I can always come back to these charts you know what's what's happening in terms of the treasury. uh this is what we reckon is going on in terms of the sources of of monetary stimulus in the system and what this diagram breaks down is three different categories. One is conventional plain vanilla QE which is you know using the SOM accounts at the Fed uh in other words expanding the balance sheet to stimulate which they clearly did a lot of in COVID and that's the red area. You've also got, if you like, the backdoor stimulus, which is what we loosely or flippantly call not QEQE, which is the hidden QE, which is things like the Treasury General account, uh, the bank term funding program, the losses they're they're making on interest payments to the banks, um, and the reverse repo program rundown. That's the orange bid. Now, you see those things are kind of exhausted. I mean they can they can revive if they decide to change uh from QT again to QE but at the moment they're spent. And then what you've got is the black area which is what we called treasury QE. And that really comes by shifting the duration of issuance uh from longerdated debt to shorterdated instruments. And the reason that's important is that you know very crudely we tend to think that liquidity is equal to an asset divided by its duration. So if you're reducing the average duration or maturity of assets out there in the private sector, you must by definition be improving liquidity. And the black area is the impact of this big issuance or wave of issuance of bills and shortdated debt uh um uh u you know through the treasury calendar uh as opposed to coupons. So you can see it's becoming material. There's a little bit of a lull right now in terms of that stimulus which may explain why the economy is soft. But it does pick up and that's why this this is a critical point.
Now, as I as I stressed a second ago, uh the fact is that banks in particular love this stuff and so as it happens, do stable coin uh issuers. Uh they like uh shortdated debt and they like bills. But if any credit provider uh buys government debt in whatever shape or form, but they particularly like shortdated stuff, it's monetization. And this chart here is looking at the growth of treasury and agency securities among commercial banks in the US relative to disconventional weekly money supply growth. And you can see that there's been this big acceleration in the growth of treasuries, government debt, which is telling you they're monetizing the deficit. That's the main source of of monetary growth right now.
Now, as we know, the liquidity game is a global game. It's not just the US. You wrote this morning about China. And I've been looking at China. It feels that China's picking up its stimulus program as well.
Yeah. I'll I'll show you the I mean the uh I I'll come back to the um there's a point about Japan which I can come back to. Yeah. Or you can go to Japan straight and then we can go to China if you're next on Japan because that was interesting. Concert that I mean I think this is a a point to ponder. I'm not going to say I'm right on this, but I think it's uh it's a point for people to ponder is that what you've got in Japan is clearly rising yields. And this chart is illustrating the 10-year yield. And that's the orange line. And the dotted line is our estimate of fair value without all the various incumbrances of uh of what what was then Japan called QQE or yield curve control or these factors. So that's where effectively the Japanese long bond or the 10-year bond is is heading to. And that rising pressure on yields is clearly something that's spooking investors right now because they say, you know, here we are 1987 crash redo. We're going to get another episode of rising bond mark, rising bond yields which scupper the equity rally. Well, that's possible, of course, but then if you disagregate uh term premier, which are a lower wonkish concept, are invaluable when you're when you're understanding bonds because it shows the risk premium on uh uh on a sovereign government debt. What this chart here is doing is disagregating um term premium in Japan uh into three different channels. The red line, which is the one that's really been moving, is the ultra long-term bond. So, uh, nearer the 30-year tenner. So, that's been shooting up, right? I mean, dramatically since that graph started. And then the other two lines are looking at medium and short-term JGB risk premier uh or term premier. Now, the reason that I'm making this distinction is that if you looked at a comparative economy like Britain or France, you name names, you'd see all three segments of term premium moving up together in sort of harmony or disharmony or whatever way you'd like to put it because effectively investors right across the curve of all stripes are dumping government debt because they don't want the sovereign risk. In Japan, something really different's going on. It's only the ultra long-term debt that's really being seriously dumped. And isn't that a switch from bonds into equities? Because that type of debt is really a substitute for equities. And so people are just saying, look, hey, uh, we've got inflation now in Japan. Uh, we're going to be destroyed. Uh, wealth is going to be destroyed in the bond markets, the long-term bond markets. So, let's switch into equities. And that, as we know, is coincided with a big rally in the Japanese stock market. Why are the Japanese tolerating it? Because that's the one thing is look, the Japanese are very smart in how they manage their monetary policy. They understand this inside and out and they've led the world in doing this. They're allowing this to happen for a reason. It's not like they can't stop it. They know how to stop it. So, it's happening on purpose. Now, one is they want it to flow into the equity market or B, you know, there's some demographic reason or whatever that they're allowing the super long end to to rise. Any particular thoughts?
Well, I mean, I suppose you could I mean, I would turn around and say, why why aren't they tightening monetary policy if there if there's a serious inflation problem? And I think you could you could tackle that in two ways. One to say they actually want some inflation because clearly that would actually help them u not just u you know get the economy maybe moving again, get spending uh up, but it would also um uh get rid of some of the debt burden. Uh so let's not forget there is a a positive in a higher inflation from a government's point of view. So I think there's that argument. I think the other one which is maybe more conspiratorial but it's one that I quite like is that actually the Japanese are being uh told to ease monetary policy by the US Treasury. And I think there's a distinct line going on here which is basically saying they want a they want a weak yen. uh the yen has sort of refused to barge or rally through this period despite what seemed to be strong foreign inflows and I think a lot of that is to say we're we're trying to put pressure or collectively put pressure on China and you know you go back to what I was what I called uh back a couple of years ago Shanghai accord 2 which was what I then thought was happening in 2022 which was a deliberate attempt to hold China's feet to the fire by deliberately weakening aggressively and that put a lot of pressure on the Chinese to uh you know on their financial system. So I think there's a lot of that going on. So maybe it's to do with that but you know I don't know. I mean we don't really know the truth in all these things. What's the size of this the long-term JVS? Maybe it's just too small that they just don't care and that they want to kind of, you know, let that market reduce in importance over time and manage it at the at the tighter end of of the curve.
Yeah, it could be. But uh to be fair to the data here, what we're the uh red line is looking at actually right across the long edges of anything from 10 years and above. So there's a quite a lot of issuance there, but it is those longerdated issues that are really selling off and that's what I'm trying trying to make the point that it's not it's not the miduration or short duration stuff that that is being affected. I mean, it's being affected to some extent uh but it's nothing like the gap is huge and that differential I think tells you it's more about demand than supply factors. And aren't the Japanese issuing a lot of long-end stuff or is it just not not particularly?
No. So it's not excess supply. No, it's uh it's a demand feature. It's a demand. Super interesting. And that's one of the reasons I guess the Japanese stock market goes up as well as you say.
Yeah, I think so. You wrote in you wrote in a note this morning. I think that's a that's a key thing because you switch the longduration asset for another long duration asset that is a is a better prospect I guess.
Yeah, I think absolutely right. I mean certainly for mild inflation uh equities look pretty good. If you get high inflation they're not so good. you want real assets. But, you know, this is the this is what you're getting. And in China, you've got, if you like, the opposite extreme, which is basically saying, um, we're they're still in debt deflation, but they are emerging. This is looking at the Chinese 10-year bond in orange, the yield. So, that's kind of flatlining, but it looks to be breaking upwards, which is important. And I think the message here is that, you know, not all increases in bond yields are necessarily bad. There can be good aspects to a rising bond yield if it's reflecting some sort of economic recovery or monetary monetary inflation coming through. You know, some other assets can get a lift from that. And the the black line is looking at the term premier in China. Now, normally you'd you'd view a falling term premier uh as basically saying there's a big demand for safe assets that investors are piling into government debt uh bidding prices up and pushing yields down and hence the uh the term premier starts to drop and that's really been the story uh you know over that over that period since the middle of 2024. But you can see lately that there's been a flatlining and maybe even a breakout of that term premier. And that's important because as background what the what the Chinese are doing is that adding liquidity into their systems. And I think that's you know that's a critical thing to to understand and that liquidity is forcing investors out of safe assets government bonds into riskier assets like equities. Now if you look at this chart which is maybe a step to the side but it shows what the issue is. Now in our view uh contrary sort of a uh sort of the conventional economic narrative what really matters is the debt liquidity ratio not the debt GDP ratio. I've never really understood what the debt GDP ratio measures to be truthful, but the debt liquidity ratio is real because debt has to be refinanced. And if you don't have enough liquidity or balance sheet capacity in the financial sector, you can't refinance. Now, if you have high ratios of debt to liquidity, you get financial crisis or certainly stumbling uh economies and stumbling financial systems. And that's what China has really been through in the last few years. It's had way too high a debt liquidity ratio. Everyone recognizes the debt part, but they don't really see that actually liquidity has been quite scarce as well. And that's really been a function of the fact the Chinese have been trying to uh, you know, match a strong dollar and they've been tightening liquidity on that basis. But that's caused them, you know, economic woe. And what they need to do is to get that debt liquidity ratio down. Well, you can do it two ways. You can default the debt. Well, fat chance of that happening. Uh, or what you can do is to expand liquidity. And that's really what they're doing. So, you got to think about, put this in context. And this is showing the next chart is showing the growth of liquidity going through Chinese money markets. This effectively is the conduit from the PBOC, the people's bank. And Chinese data is notoriously seasonal. Uh so what I've done here is look at year-on-year changes to give you some sense as to what's going on. But it shows that there's a clear stimulus underway uh as of um you know these are year-on-year changes as of 2025 and that's pretty much coincident with the rally the strong rally in the Shanghai market. So you're getting the this impetus coming through which I think is very significant.
Does it change much if you do yearon year um in terms of percentage change as opposed to R&B change because it can also be more dramatic over time.
Yeah, you can I mean look at it this way. I mean it's these are the programs. This is breaking down China. You can see they you can see the effect. So if it was a percentage you can work out the percentage change from this probably. What this is showing is the various programs and the flows of money that are going through Chinese money markets from the PBOC. So, you've got uh their repo uh purchases, the new program, which is the black area called the outright reverse repo. Uh you've got medium-term lending, and you've got overall PBOC liquidity injections. And you can see how that's built up, but I mean, it's pretty clear that something's going on. Uh they had a brief attempt at that in sort of 23, but they phased it off because of the weakness in the yuan, and now they've they've kept going again. So the weak the weak dollar allows everybody to stimulate.
Yeah, absolutely. Look at Europe. I mean that's exactly the same thing. So you know what's the endg game here? The endgame is sort of shown here with our index of Chinese liquidity over the long term in orange and that's showing with projections the projection we put in but it's it's charted alongside commodity prices where we put the CRB index uh annual change in black and the dotted line is the CRB without energy products is to make sure it's you know there's uh there's there's general truth there. So that seems to show that if you get this big Chinese stimulus continuing and the dotted line is showing the continuation uh that should mean that you get stronger commodity markets.
Yeah. Which suggests a business cycle pickup because China's been missing from the economic equation of the world for a while now because it's been in a debt deflation.
I think absolutely. Yeah. Absolutely. And so if you go back to, you know, where we are, this is a very normal cycle in with in that from a asset allocation point of view, from a a market point of view, from a liquidity standpoint, everything's normal. What's abnormal is the business cycle.
Yeah. So just um just for completeness sake, we didn't talk about what Japan is doing in liquidity terms. We talked about the bond market itself. Is Japan adding liquidity, neutral liquidity? Where are we on that?
Well, generally it it's expanding. I mean that that's for sure. It's not it's um it's been stronger but um you know generally it's going up. I mean we tend to think of there being two components in liquidity. One is looking at um what what the central bank is doing and the other is what's coming out of the private sector. The central bank still seems to be injecting decent amounts of liquidity. what you know what is uh is less strong is uh is the private sector and that is to largely a function of two things I mean one is the banks bank lending is beginning to pick up a tad in Japan but the other thing is is the cash flow of the corporate sector which is largely under a cloud because of the weaker Chinese economy and Japan is now more and more a sort of adjunct of or a warrant if you like uh on the Chinese economy so a a slower Chinese economy uh and obviously the tariff impacts generally in the world are putting a sunny to some extent uh cash flow of Japanese corporates. So you know that that could clearly change but for the moment that's where we are. Chinese liquid I mean sorry Japanese liquidity looks pretty good. Um you know if you look at um if you look generally uh at the world liquidity conditions in Europe in Japan and in the US are pretty much much less they're all expanding pretty strongly. Uh Europe and Japan have caught up a lot uh in the last couple of years. Uh and they've caught up recently because of the weaker dollar as you rightly say and they've all got the same debt refinance issue. I mean everyone's in the same boat. Correct. Because they've all got the same aging demographics, the same debt issue and so they're all having to manage it in this kind of global cycle and everyone kind of knows the game.
What is what is going on with France and the UK? Because you know I you know it's shocking me to read and it's probably sensationalist. Oh well we might need the IMF to help us. I mean it's like it sounds kind of extremist but what is going on?
Well the f I mean the fact is that both are in a very similar situation as you as you allude to. Uh I mean I'm not going to say that Germany is is out of the is out of that net because Germany equally has a problem in terms of debt. I mean the great paradox if you look at Europe generally is that the big losers out of the GFC countries like Italy, Spain, Greece are the ones that are actually winning right now and the winners if you like the c the countries that were pretty well off at the time of the GFC are the ones that are really under the kosh uh you know countries like France and actually increasingly Germany. Now what are the problems particularly? It really comes down uh I mean part of this is is the China effect because there's been a spillover uh given the fact that Europe is so connected with the Chinese economy and a slower Chinese economy is adversely affecting Europe but then on top of that embroidered on top you've got this debt problem which is really one about far far too generous welfare state systems and you will be you know you would have read in the last day or so that the German chancellor is actually talking about pairing that down which I mean it's they have to do it. I mean, there's no way these bills can be afforded in the long term, but it's easier you it's easier saying that getting there. Um, as we know now, specifically what you're what you're seeing in the case of France and the UK is that the debt markets are selling off. Yields are rising. They're rising for different reasons than yields are rising in Japan and China. They're reason they're rising because of supply issues, not because of demand issues. uh and it's because you've got this big weight of supply coming in and that's forcing term premier up and if you look across the curve it's not simply the longdated term premier that are rising as in Japan it's everything so you know the problem is this is a sovereign debt crisis look at the UK uh you know I mean uh people poured scorn on Liz Truss uh what three or four years ago for what she did uh but I mean the latest chancellor Retro Reeves has done that. I mean, she's bested Liz Truss easily. I mean, yields uh sovereign yields in the UK underlying term premier up over 100 basis points in the last 12 months. I this this is a big financing.
And what do the Bank of England say about this?
Well, the Bank of England, I mean, it's not much in truth the Bank of England can do. I mean, what what are they going to do? You going to get them to uh they can cut interest rates, but then the UK's got an inflation problem which is emerging. I mean, if one country as you will recall uh you know, the the or sorry the two countries that always used to feature first in any inflation pickup was Britain number one and Australia number two and Britain is really a bellweather to that process probably because inflation is sticky and it's picking up. There's not much the bank can do.
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So, so what are they going to do about it? Cuz they're going to have to do something, right? We don't we're not in a world where we can allow interest rates to become unanchored. And so there's something that either the the government has to do or the central bank has to do eventually to quell this. And it can't be it'd be unlikely to borrow money from the IMF. If it is, it's just another liquidity injection from a different mechanism. But you know what other answers do they have?
Well, I think the first thing they'll do is at the upcoming budget, they're going to start increasing taxes as best they can. uh the ability to cut back on expenditure programs is limited because in parliament uh the socialist uh sort of backbenches uh are voting out uh any any attempt to cut uh cut spending. So that's that's tricky for them at the moment. But it may be that you have to force a crisis uh to actually get those cuts put in place. And clearly if there is any deal with the IMF, the IMF would be uh the baton that sort of is wielded to actually beat down um spending. Uh that's what they would do. Uh the third alternative is the Bank of England is basically monetizes the debt. Let's not say never for that because that's almost inevitably what's going to happen in almost always what happens, right? That that is the chosen path.
And by what mechanism would they do that yield curve control?
Well, yes. could be or they just basically start to buy up they do another sort of QE program but you know these QE programs can be dressed up as support for the for the bond market in times of crisis as they've done before. So I think that that's the mechanism or they do it you know as you whatever one calls one put what label one puts on it but if you get the banks to try and buy in more debt that's another way the private banks to buy more government debt that's another route out um and they can try and loosen up some of the controls there I mean that's been spoken about and you will note that you know that it's not just the US which is talking about issuing very short-term debt and bills the bank the US the UK Treasury as well as the Japanese are talking about doing the same thing. So all these governments are sort of seeing what Scott Besson has done, you know, lit up their eyes and say, "Well, what a great idea. Why don't we think of that first?" Uh the trouble is it's monetization. And you know, it's been my opinion and probably your opinion too that they're all in cahoots cahoots with each other. They all know that the problem they're facing, they're all facing the same problem and they all tend to do the same thing at the same time. was like, you know, when I go back and look at, let's say, 2022, 23, 24, it seemed like they all decided to try and raise GDP growth via immigration, which then backfired and now we've got the reverse of that. You know, they they do everything together really.
I think that's right. I mean, you know, I mean, the the pro I mean, the immigration problems are becoming really a a major issue here for sure. Yeah. As they are in the space. The other big factor in all of this uh in global liquidity and maybe the big daddy of all is the dollar itself. Now it's been clear that Bessant wants a weaker dollar. The US wants a weaker dollar. The world needs a weaker dollar. Does that continue weaker because that makes a that's a you know that's a very important factor in all of this because the dollar is the funding currency of the world.
Well I I think the answer like for the role is is yes and no. It depends against what. So this is looking at the at the at the trade weighted dollar and this is the way I tend to think about the dollar anyway. I like the real trade weighted index that the BIS does. And this this is really showing uh what I think of the sort of the underlying currents in the dollar. So what you've had you had the long downtrend in the dollar broken uh around the time of the GFC and then you've seen this upward channel. Um at the moment we're having a cyclical correction in that in my reckoning. There's no evidence the dollar is, this is the paper dollar is really being undermined. And ironically, if you look at the following chart, which is looking at net inflows into the dollar, um they still seem to be very strong. There's no evidence uh that we can find in the data that money is leaving the dollar. And this this just to be
You know, 100% accurate here, or, or, or complete. This is not looking at the, um, at the US data, uh, the TIC data, um, which is, you know, notably rogue and not that accurate. Uh, this is looking at what all other countries are saying they're actually putting into the dollar. So, presumably, it may have biases, but it's, it's a more accurate read as to what's going on. And it looks as if money is still flowing. You can see what happened after the GFC, 2010, uh, and after the Eurozone banking crisis. Money, a lot of money flowed into the dollar, and that's really, you know, been a mainstay of the US market. It's still there. So, I think that if you look at the paper dollar, I think that that still looks reasonably robust. I accept the point 100% that I think the administration wants to get it weaker, but I think it's a bit of a challenge for them to get it weaker given these dynamics. Uh, but I do think they want to try and talk it down, and that's the evidence that one gets. Yeah.
And I think on a cyclical basis, I don't think we're at a, you know, the full Plaza Accord, nuke the dollar basis. We just don't have that much stress in the system. And listen, I think it's over 50% of world, of world debt is in dollars. A weaker dollar allows people to refinance their debts. So, it's, it tends to be cyclically weak to allow this mechanism to happen, allows everybody to stimulate, do what they need to do. That ends up being the debasement of currency. Even though you get dollar inflows, people get confused by this. It's like, no, the dollar is still fundamentally strong and is gaining as the world's reserve currency, but its purchasing power via debasement is actually decreasing. Yeah, absolutely.
And I think, you know, what, what is it, what could it weaken or strengthen against? Well, you know, if you look at, um, I think the yen is, you know, my view is, I think the yen is deliberately being held down. Uh, I think that the Chinese yuan has to weaken against the US dollar in some form. Um, and I think that if you look at the Europeans, European units, I think the whole fiscal backdrop is so, is so ugly that I can't see why the eur, the euro should strengthen particularly against the dollar anyway. So, you know, there may be a case for some of the emerging market currencies picking up or the Aussie dollar cyclically. I don't know. But they're tiny in the context of things. On the other hand, you know, if you're debasing, you know, the main standard of value in the world economy, then you're going to have real assets like gold, silver, precious metals going up, and you're going to have cryptocurrencies going up at the same time. So, this is, you know, this is, these are the hedges against this long-term monetary debasement. And as I, you know, as I, and I know you keep saying, there's a trend here and there's a cycle. The trend looks, you know, compelling. Uh, the cycle, we may be coming to the end of it, but, you know, cycles go up and down.
The other thing, so just zooming in now, is we use our financial conditions index as a lead on, uh, total global liquidity. And it has been sideways for a while, but it looks like it's about to expand again because it's the dollar, interest rates, and all of those seem to be moving in the favor of that, which then gives us a longer lead on the cycle. So, I'm trying to get your thinking on, okay, what, what does the next like three to six months look like on a forward basis from what you can see from liquidity? Okay.
I, I mean, my view is, I mean, I'm not bearish on liquidity over that time frame. I think that the, there are a number of questions that people will raise. And I think one of those, and I'm going to show you another chart, hopefully, if this one works, um, is, is what's happening to the Fed balance sheet. So that's number one. And this is looking at a concept that, you know, I call Fed liquidity, which is a thing that I came up with, you know, when I wrote that book, Capital Wars, which is looking at, uh, you know, the various components that, uh, the Fed uses to get liquidity into the system. Now, that's clearly an important element. It's not the whole story, but it's an important element. And what this is basically showing is that if you look at the projection period on paper, the growth of Fed liquidity falls and goes negative. And the reason for that is, if you come back to the underlying ingredient, which is US bank reserves, this is, this chart is showing the, our projections through year-end of, uh, US bank reserves based on, yeah, everyone's getting really caught up on on this because they're like, the reverse repo is empty, and therefore, if you rebuild the TGA, you've got a massive liquidity shock. Yeah.
So, I mean, the, the question is, uh, number one, will they rebuild the TGA? Well, okay, if you look at the quarterly refunding announcement, it says they're going to go back to 850. Well, I would be staggered if they get there because to take that amount of money out of money markets would cause the repo spread to spike, and I don't think they, they want to do that. There's every indication they're trying to manage the repo spread. So, I don't think, I don't buy the fact they're going to put it up. Even if they do put it up, you can find other ways of injecting liquidity, as we said, through Treasury QE or getting the banks to buy debt. So, I think there are other ways around it. But, you know, what that chart is is trying to illustrate is that the dotted line, the red dotted line, is my estimate of what adequate reserves are, minimum reserves in the system. And it looks as if, uh, there was that step change back last August when you got the change in the stress test rules, but basically, uh, what's happened to bank reserves through this year is they've very closely hugged that dotted line. And I think that's deliberate because, as we know, the Federal Reserve controls bank reserves in aggregate completely. And I think that's what they're, that's what they're targeting amongst other things. So, to see that drop off, which is the TGA rebuild prospectively, I just don't buy. I don't think it's going to happen. So, I think that number one is, you've got still pretty decent Fed liquidity. And everything that I hear Scott Besson say, and what I see the Fed doing, is they want to manage that liquidity. They don't want to pull the rug from the markets. Why should they?
Um, number one, I think if you look at, um, offshore markets, uh, in other words, international markets, I think that Europe continues in the in the groove it's been doing, which means adding more liquidity. They're going to have to do that anyway. Uh, and I think all the moves are towards more ease in Europe. Uh, Japan, I think, follows because they want, uh, the yen to remain soft, and China is embarking on a major monetary expansion. So, as far as I can see, the liquidity background still looks to be pretty benign over that time frame. Yeah.
I mean, we look at, um, both the, the, the, the Fed net liquidity of this, and this is what a lot of people are talking about is, oh my god, this is going to be a liquidity shock. But when you look at total liquidity because it takes into account what's happening in the banking sector, it's a different chart. Yeah. And it seems to be that it's the total liquidity dominance now, and this has become more of a steady as she goes factor. Same with the balance sheet. So they've moved away, even though the balance sheet's a component of this, but they kind of move away from these things over time. And it now seems to be, it's, it's the banks, and, you know, there's other mechanisms they can use, the pension system and the insurance sector as well, at various points, because they're all the big buyers of bonds. Yeah. Yeah.
I, I think this is, I mean, I think they, you know, Scott Breton, as we know, is a clever guy, and I think he's thought these things through, and he is conscious of the fact that liquidity is critical to markets. Yeah, exactly. It helps having a hedge fund manager as the treasury secretary because we all speak the same language, so we kind of know what he's up to.
So, where do you think, where is your, to go back to where we started, your best guesstimate right now of when liquidity peaks? Is it Q1, a bit longer? I'm in, in the camp of Q2, but obviously, it's probabilistic and it can change, but it's not this year. And this year, that's a big important factor for markets. Yeah.
It's, it's, uh, I mean, in my view, it's, it's at least six months away. I mean, the, the estimates we, we came up with, we use leading indicators. Uh, those leading indicators are based on factors like, um, what the business cycle is doing, uh, what's happening to things like oil prices, uh, what's happening to volatility in the bond markets. I mean, a number of things, but that actually comes up with the latest figure that we saw, I saw was March of next year. So, it's not, it's pretty much, you know, close to where you're saying about that, that sort of time frame. That's what I would think. Uh, now, it may be extended by a number of factors, but that's what I think the, you know, the, the cycle Michael is pointing to. Yeah.
I, I do too. And what's really interesting to me is, is if I then go back to asset markets, the two big assets that I look in all of this is really obviously cryptocurrency and technology stocks because they seem to be outperforming the basement more than anything else. They're in a log trend channel, which is, which means that basically over time, if the, if the cycle's extended, the price goes higher. And I think people don't really understand this mechanism because of what happened in the kind of stunted cycle of of 2021, that we've kind of got the opposite of 2021 at play here, which is that that time is being extended, and therefore price likely gets extended upwards. Yeah.
I mean, that's, that makes sense to me. I think that's, um, you know, at the end of the day, you know, we, we should be investing more and more in liquidity sensitive assets. I think that makes sense. One thing we did do, and I just wanted to get your thoughts on this. Gold has been an interesting market. It kind of does what it's supposed to do right now. But what we found is gold seems to be highly correlated with financial conditions, not real rates and all the other things it was linked to, but it now seems to be pretty much real-time financial conditions. So, you know, it's been in this kind of wedge pattern recently. Let's assume that the dollar weakens a bit more from here, rates come down a bit more, that'll break out gold because that's the majority of financial conditions, which kind of leads everything we found by about nine months. So, it's gold has become really interesting to watch, and for me, is now quite explainable. It goes from periods of being explainable to not explainable, but, you know, that pattern in gold, I think, is an important one. I know you look, you look at gold as well. Yeah.
No, I think I'd endorse that. I, I think that, that if you look at real interest rates, real interest rates on the gold price moved very closely together for a long, long time, uh, and then until they didn't. And they didn't, basically from 2022 onwards. Now, you can argue that that was, uh, a lot of people say, well, that's because of Ukraine invasion. Uh, that was because, basically, people got disillusioned with the dollar, they wanted a safer asset. That, that may be the case. I don't think that lines up exactly. I think what, what's the, the bigger driver is that was really the period where you saw that was the time when you saw the beginning of this monetary debasement. So, gold basically began to be moved much more, uh, by monetary factors, by the flow of liquidity, and a lot less by essentially the cost of carry, interest rates. So, I think that's the, that's the, you know, people are buying gold as a protection, as a monetary hedge now, in the same way as I think a lot, a lot of people are buying. I mean, people bought Bitcoin because they didn't, they didn't really know why, but they bought it. But I think now you're getting people who are buying it as a monetary inflation hedge.
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Let's assume that most of the world's major central banks know the game is debasement of currency, and they're all having to do it together to refinance debts. Then part of their job is to offset some of that. So, if you know you've got to go through, um, a debt refinancing cycle, the dollar has to weaken for everybody, well, then the most likely outcome is they end up diversifying dollar reserves out into an asset like gold. And we've seen certainly in the Middle East, Bitcoin being put on, you know, various parts of the sovereign wealth fund balance sheets. So, it seems very consistent with them understanding. The great one to me, the greatest of all, I think, was the Swiss National Bank because they kind of figured out what the game was. Yeah. Because they're at all the meetings, but they're too small to matter. I remember meeting them years ago, and they were like, "We can do anything we want because we're too small to matter." Um, and what they did, instead of kind of managing this process, they just bought tech stocks, which was genius. Yeah. Because that was the right thing to buy. Exactly. Yeah. Exactly right. I mean, that's right. I mean, they maybe we look to them first as be the buy, the official buyer of bitcoins. It's entirely possible. Yeah. Because, you know, everyone thought, what are they crazy? They turned into a hedge fund. But they figured out, well, debasement, you might as well just buy the asset that outperforms the debasement, and their balance sheet's been great, which has kept the Swiss Franks strong, um, over this whole period, or steady over the whole period. Yeah.
But I think, you know, the other thing is, which I'm sure you've got an opinion about as well, is about the role of stablecoin and how this gives a conduit to the treasury and Bessant to actually do a lot more funding. I mean, this, this could be big. Uh, and I think it's, you know, if you, if you start to look at how stable coins operate, uh, typically, I mean, you, you could make a case, and in fact, I've sort of argued, uh, negatively in one, in one regard, to say that, you know, the, a big growth in stable coin could actually dent bank credit significantly because actually a stable coin is a lot more, or a stable coin issuer is a lot more constrained than a bank. And if a lot of funds move from banks into stable coins, you're not going to get credit growth, which is, you clearly a possibility. But then you've got to think about it from the other side, is that actually it's a wonderful source of credit for the treasury. And so this is what you're going to get is much more public sector-led, uh, credit growth via the stable coin conduit. And it gives, it's really an opportunity, uh, in no other words, to for governments to print money.
What's interesting is those of us who have been around a long time, you know, we grew up with a Eurodollar market. The Eurodollar market was the wholesale funding markets of the dollar, but that stopped at like the big Japanese banks, you know, the European banks and stuff like that. And then you had to get access to it, and it was restricted down to to others. It was hard to get hold of dollars outside of that. But that was the big dollar funding market. What stable coins essentially is, is a fractionalized Eurodollar market down to individual level. So it means you can be in any country in the world and get access to dollars, which is an extraordinary thing. And so what you're doing is spreading the dollar and the issuance of bonds and the holding of bonds down to individuals all around the globe. Yeah.
I, I think I think it's a, it's a revolution. I think you can see why it's so important given the sort of sudden change of heart by the Europeans who were sort of dragging their feet hugely on, uh, on some equivalent, uh, euro, euro, uh, currency. Uh, and now they're basically going full steam ahead. And are they going to do it via the central bank digital currency route, or are they just going to let the open market just build to to try and spread demand for euros? Because, well, I think given, given the fact it's Europe, it's, it's got to be the central bank route. They're not going to let the private sector get in there, but that's what they should be doing. Yeah. And let's see whether there's actual demand for euros on a globalized basis. It feels like it's a dollar world, and it's, I think they're running scared because they realize that they could be, uh, you know, wiped out or smothered, uh, crowded out, in fact, by, um, by dollar stable coins. And even your chart of of showing the amount of money piling to the US shows that that crowding out is happening. And that's what we're seeing in the UK and the French bond markets essentially, is there's not enough foreigners who want to finance other countries' debts. We're seeing, you know, whether arguably maybe in Japan as well, there's not enough demand because everybody would rather finance, finance the US. Yeah.
I think absolutely. I think that that's, I think that's the reality of that, of that chart. But it's been the reality for the last, you know, 15 years that there's a lot of money flowing that has flowed into the US because the US is, you know, is, is the, is the bond market, uh, it's global collateral, and they've got on top of that, the, you know, the added, um, you know, icing on top is the tech sector.
So, final question for you. So, do you think the rate of debasement or the increase in liquidity, the rate of change increases from here going into this whole big large refinancing, refunding period? So, we should see a spike in all of that, or is it kind of more as steady as she goes?
The way that I think about it is to go back to this chart, which is looking at the ratio between debt and liquidity. And what this is really saying is that over the long term, financial stability demands a stable debt liquidity ratio. This is for the advanced economies. If you get debt growth, and I think debt growth is, um, let's take the US as a decent benchmark. Debt growth is likely to be growing at something like 8 to 10% per annum, or that sort of magnitude. Um, then I think what you've got on top of that is equivalent liquidity growth because you need a stable debt liquidity ratio. So liquidity has got to grow at pretty much the same rate. Now, what we know is that a lot of those projections, and I tend to use numbers that come from the Congressional Budget Office, uh, for want of any other source, they give decent long-term projections. The problem with the CBO numbers is they don't take into account recessions. And we know that recessions, uh, basically lead to big deficits. And in the last couple of recessions, the US deficits blown up by four to five percentage points of GDP. So, you could be seeing actually a lot faster, uh, potential growth of debt anyway. So, I think that these figures of sort of 8 to 10% minimum, sorry, minimum figures, and that's what we ought to be thinking about. So, you know, in that case, you've got to choose assets that are likely to give you that sort of return over the medium term, and there's not that many around. Certainly bonds don't do it.
Super interesting. Mike, as ever. Look, fantastic to run through all of this with you. I think, um, it's always incredibly helpful to people. And I guess the message is, steady as she goes for now. You know, the ongoing game for the next few months. Yeah. Through year-end. I, I think that's right. I mean, we always know that September is a bad month, but you, you got to discount that, uh, historically. But I mean, generally, I, I think it's okay. Uh, I think, I mean, we will get wiggles, and we'll get liquidity withdrawals, and all of that stuff, but the, the, the trend is intact and continues for a while. There are, there are too many bears out there to my mind. I mean, people want to call the top of the market, and I think that's always, uh, uh, yeah, problematic. Yeah, totally agree.
All right, my friend. Thank you ever so much. Thanks. Enjoy it. So, another great conversation with Mike. Always good. Always good to be able to go around the world, look at what's going on, look at how it plays into assets, think about not only the short-term time horizons, the medium and the longer-term time horizons, and how this all plays out. You see, these are the tools you need to really navigate this. These kind of tools help you unfuck your future. Now, never forget on Real Vision, we have Realvision Alpha that has the macro investing tool with myself and Julian Battel, where we produce all of these charts every week for you so you can navigate it. It's honestly life-changing, um, as an investment for your, your future and how to unfuck it. Anyway, I'll see you next time. Take care.
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