Transcription
Unfortunately, some really bad news for the channel here. Uh, as we widened into week 17, showed up to the alumni basketball game and I was the oldest player on the court. They were literally calling me "unk." My back is so sore right now.
The good news is I still kind of got it. I still kind of got it. Uh, Gen Z, they have no postgame. I was too much down there. Uh, but we'll be back next year. Hopefully in a little bit better shape. Maybe run the court a little bit better out there. But I'm prepared for this show. Week 17 wide receiver rankings. We got some like freaking news with the Brock Bowers going on injured reserve. We're going to hit on all that today. The last episode of the year. We'll be here for Sunday uh morning sitsart shows and then we're going to go live uh Sunday night football after the game. Bring your uh kind of victory laps. I want to see your your teams that made it to the Basketball Mania finals. I want to see your Yahoo leagues, where you won things. Come join us live Sunday night. That's where we will be.
But for the wide receivers, this one's pretty obvious. Puka Nacua, uh, last week without Davante Adams, season high in usage up at 24 points. The Rams projected for 29 points, the second most of the week. Uh, if you have Puka, you're in the finals. Good for you.
Next up, Jamar Chase. This one's also extremely straightforward. Whenever you see the Bengals projected for 30 points, the highest on the week, you play Jamar Chase. You play Jamar Chase when they're projected for 18 points. So, that's especially true when they're at projected for 30 points. We'll keep this one moving.
JSN, he's the wide receiver 10 uh this month. Uh but last week, you saw it in comeback mode. He just went crazy in the second half of that game. Overtime, it was actually a season high in usage for him. I'm not expecting to see like that much like second half production. They're they're projected to beat the Carolina Panthers here, but 25 and a half point team total. Him and Puka, I'll throw in Christian McCaffrey. There's a couple others still that like offensive player of the year I think is very much up for grabs. JSN and Puka, their numbers right now are about neck and neck uh for the season. So, these are like to me the the clear top three names and then the rest of this group will be rounding up the elite wide receiver ones.
Let's get both Dallas Cowboys wide receivers on the board here. This is just an awesome spot. The uh Cowboys are projected for almost 29 points here. The Commanders, both their top corners are on injured reserve. They're benching guys. They're just like they're just a mess, you know? It's a total mess. A very vanilla defense on top of that. You can beat these guys down the field. They're really slow over the middle. So, I think you'll have George Pickens like one-on-one opportunities against like Mike Evans still who's about half the size and then CeeDee Lamb working over the middle running around Bobby Wagner. He has a really clean spot. Uh back in week seven, CeeDee Lamb had 110 uh yards and a touchdown. The Cowboys scored 44 points in that one. George Pickens has been a monster for about all but two games this season. So, both of them projected for uh in the 70s in terms of yards in the underdog pick 'em lobby. The other three wide receivers we talked about at least at 90. So, one tiny tier down, but these guys are rock solid. I think that George Pickens probably one of the best draft picks of the year. He's like kind of going like the fifth round for for a lot of the drafts out there. He's one of our favorite players on the channel.
Amon-Ra St. Brown is up next and really he's I think that he might be a little bit under-projected. I was just looking at his career numbers against Brian Flores. His last five games against the Vikings, he's had at least 77 yards. In four of the five games, at least 97 yards. He's scoring touchdowns. That level of production makes sense to me. One, Brian Flores. Uh the more ball you've played, the more you understand what they're trying to do. That's Amon-Ra St. Brown with Jared Goff. On top of that, when they're bringing the the blitzes, they stay in in two high uh shells on the back end. How do you beat that? You replace the blitzer underneath uh where Amon-Ra St. Brown gets the bulk of his targets. So, he's at 78 and a half receiving yards in the pick 'em lobby. He typically completely smashes that against Brian Flores. Uh the Lions, while they don't have like a whole lot to play for at this point, uh Amon-Ra St. Brown and Dan Campbell and all these boys, uh complete competitors. So, I'm not expecting any drop off from them.
Chris Olave, just a complete smash out there. Josh noted this. He was one of the guys from an offseason episode with Ryan Heath talking about just first downs per route and how Chris Olave last year in a smaller sample was dominant. There's this like threshold for wide receiver production and he was one of the guys that was just mispriced based off of that. He's been a total smash. I've been really impressed with the Tyler Shough stuff. There's a lot of like outside routes, like lots of big kind of corner routes, big out routes even from the opposite side of the hash marks. We had a Chris Olave score a touchdown uh from the slot just completely blew by Jets defender. Tua Tagovailoa throwing them freaking post route touchdowns. Uh but even on some of the misses, uh those are like downfield routes. So, uh he had a bunch of yards there, but even on his like missed, uh targets, those are like 20 yards, 25 yards down the field. So, this is crazy upside with Chris Olave right now. He even had a touchdown that I'm not going to call it a drop. The defender uh punched it out, but he almost had a third touchdown, like another 30 yards, and that was a perfect pass from Tua Tagovailoa. So, no Devin Singletary, their top three running backs are out. This feels like an awesome spot regardless of opponent. It's not always going to be against the Jets. Uh, but Chris Olave has just been a total monster. Wide receiver six on wide receiver nine usage this month.
Jameson Williams, once again, he's a wide receiver four on wide receiver six usage. Uh, you can beat the Vikings down the field, especially on these like kind of crossing routes against the blitzers. If there's more guys in the backfield, there's less guys to tackle guys down the field. Um, I think that he's definitely going to be a little bit more volatile compared to Amon-Ra St. Brown because of the defense that they're running, but you can like really get explosives against the Minnesota Vikings. Uh, so Jameson Williams just absolutely deserves the benefit of the doubt. His numbers without Sam LaPorta on the field completely speak for themselves this year.
Courtland Sutton, man, I just love myself a little bit. Courtland Sutton. Uh I feel like I'm always higher on Courtland Sutton and more times than not that pays off. This game I'm not expecting you to be close at all. The Chiefs are projected for 12 damn points. The Broncos projected for 25 points. But if you're getting to 25 plus points, that means good things have happened. And what we've seen from the Broncos recently is they've been top three in neutral pass rate. and they're actually wide receiver three in terms of team wide receiver three in usage this month. Uh that usually means a bunch of Courtland Sutton. I don't think that Patrick Surtain II is going to play in the concussion protocol on the other side of the ball for the Chiefs. Trent McDuffie didn't play this last week. And then Jaylen Watson, he has a new groin injury. Neither of them are practicing. That's both outside corners for the Chiefs. The Chiefs defense did not look very good against the Tennessee Titans. That also makes sense to me. It's like the first time the Chiefs have actually been eliminated uh and still been playing football in a very long time. So maybe they're taking a little bit of a chill pill. Uh but Courtland Sutton just been dunking on everybody. He's a wide receiver nine, a wide receiver five usage this month. Last week season high 22 expected half PPR points. He just dunks on everybody. He's like a throwback receiver. Pretty cool uh to have that type of profile inside the top 10. Pretty much the same exact type of player.
Tee Higgins, Bengals projected for 30 points uh in 10 healthy games without Jake Browning. So, Flacco plus Burrow, let's call it the same. Uh Tee Higgins averaging 14.2 half PPR points. So, it's a 10-game sample this year. His pick 'em line is only at 54 and a half receiving yards. Might feel a little bit low, but a lot of his production is obviously going to be jump balls in the end zone here. But whenever you're projected for 30 points, got to love that. Arizona Cardinals defense just quickly. Walter Nolan left on the cart. Uh another uh starting uh player in the safety slash kind of corner hybrid role in Garrett Williams. He also left on a cart this last game. There's other injuries. Max Melton hasn't played in a very uh long while. So, they're just lost a lot of bodies out there and the Cardinal defense has been completely ran through for for for way too long. So, we got to start Tee Higgins.
Nico Collins, just a total monster. You just like see him like float in the air when he's like in the jump ball situations and then he can fly by everybody. He's he's a like true like crazy crazy athlete. Um, this is just a little bit harder of a spot. The Chargers defense does a really good job of disguising coverages. They can play a lot of different types of coverages, lots of quarters coverage, which you can beat over the top, but for the most part, the Chargers have been really, really strong. And if you're going to beat them, you kind of beat them on the ground. So, I just think where the Texans offense is at versus where the Chargers defense is at, it's not as clean of a spot for Nico Collins this week. You see that in the team total. The Texans are projected for about 19 points in this one. Nico Collins obviously total monster here. He's still the wide receiver seven on wide receiver 14 usage this month. Still projected for 63 and a half receiving yards. I don't want to doubt the man at all. I just wanted to acknowledge that the matchup isn't quite as clean as some of the other guys we've talked about so far.
Mike Evans up next. Uh he's been the wide receiver three uh in usage this month since coming back from that injury. He had a couple goal line opportunities since then. Caught that one obviously. uh at the goal line. Uh paying attention to Tristan Wirfs, left tackle there. Uh we'll see if he can play. He's got a toe injury. Uh that would mean three backup offensive linemen for the Bucs. Uh also wanted to mention Mike Evans is actually in a rotation. He's not a full-time player right now. They're trying to get Jalen McMillan going out there. Obviously, they have A.K. and Chris Godwin as well. So, he ran around like 75ish% of the dropbacks last week. I can see that kind of holding true um for this game before they have the really important game in week 18 against the Panthers. But Mike Evans, all the goal line touchdowns, I still think that he can run pretty fast uh on tape as well. So, uh hopefully Baker can stay a little bit more poised. Um I don't think it's really the shoulder injury right now. I just think that he's just not seeing the field well and there's just not been as much consistent yards after the catch production since they've lost Liam Coen.
All right, tough one here. Drake London definitely busted last week. Did pop under the hood and see what the hell happened there. He was a full-time player. He got a bunch of targets. What happened was he lost a couple, you know, passes uh on the sideline, kind of contested catch situations, was not able to come down with them at one point uh on a breaking route. He slid uh and just like lost his balance. Typically doesn't happen with him. Drake London also had a drop. That also typically doesn't happen uh with him. I thought that he was actually like running well. like there was nothing like athletically that seemed off to me. Just, you know, happens. It's the NFL. So, uh I still think a big game is possible for Drake London. Uh his usage just last week was equivalent to like where the wide receiver 12 would be. Uh that makes sense because they're getting Kyle Pitts more involved uh now than before uh when Drake London was fully healthy. Did want to mention the team total is a lot lower this week. It's at 20.5 points against the Rams. The Rams defense uh doesn't really scare me that much in the secondary. They still can obviously rush the passer. It's still like a lot of disguised looks, but hopefully Kirk Cousins is smart enough to kind of navigate that. We saw that with the Todd Bowles defense a couple uh weeks back, for example. And like Emmanuel Forbes, who's like half the size of Drake London. I don't want to like read into the Rams defense being so good that Drake London can't get home. I still think there's an opportunity. It's just all London, all Pitts, all Bijan. Nobody else in this offense matters at all. So, um I think that they should be able to get him the rock plenty.
A.J. Brown. Yeah, this is a lot lower than where he typically has been finishing recently. I'm loving the amount of targets he's getting. I've actually liked what the Eagles have kind of done on offense since Nick Sirianni's gone and helped out Kevin Patullo. Uh you're seeing like some under center play action stuff. A lot of that's been going to Dallas Goedert. See a little bit of empty as well. You also see A.J. Brown moving all across the formation including into the slot. A more like different variety of routes, more crossing routes than before. All that stuff is what you want to see from A.J. Brown. Only thing I will say here is the Bills defense is the defense that typically gives Jalen Hurts and this offense some struggles. That's zone defense. That's disguised looks. That's a veteran uh play caller and Sean McDermott on the other side. And then I also think that the Bills, their best players on defense are their outside uh corners. So, I think the matchup's a lot harder this week. There's going to be some weather uh in this one. Um Weaves, why don't you show that weather? Um just a little screenshot of the forecast around uh the East Coast in particular. Turns out December, East Coast, some snow, some rain, some wind. Uh he's going to be battling the elements here. We'll update that on Sunday morning uh as we get closer to all that. But uh everything on that side of the country completely like a train wreck. Um so yeah, everything kind of working against A.J. Brown, but still he's been a total monster this month.
Jauan Jennings, everything kind of breaking his way, including the weather. You know, California turns out weather's pretty nice more times than not. So, he's not going to be playing in the elements. Uh, I'm not expecting Ricky Pearsall to play. George Kittle, they mentioned that he has an ankle sprain, a mid to low ankle sprain. We're getting like very specific with the location of our ankle sprains in 2025. Uh, but if he can't play, then Jauan Jennings is going to be a total monster. And even with George Kittle this month, Jauan Jennings is the wide receiver 11 on wide receiver 20 usage. Since Brock Purdy has returned, the 49ers are the best offense in terms of EPA per play. Jauan Jennings does not leave the football field. He also does not leave the end zone. So, they're projected for 27 and a half points. The Bears defense is still pretty mediocre to me. I know they've gotten a little bit healthier, but Kyler Gordon, their slot corner, uh, he's been out. You can move Jauan Jennings into the slot. I think that Shanahan does a really good job of using Jauan Jennings kind of like in motion a little bit as well. So, you start removing everybody else in the offense and that team total is still really high. The ball ends up going to this guy and uh, I want to take him very seriously. So Jauan Jennings, even if Kittle is in, I think he's a must-play. And with George Kittle out, I think Jauan Jennings is going to be like one of the the guys that you would be hopeful to have in your fantasy lineup.
D.J. Moore is up next. Uh way too early in the week. We do not know if Romeo Doubs and Luther Burden are going to play. They did not practice uh on the Tuesday uh leading into this show. Last week, D.J. Moore went absolutely crazy. Obviously, everybody saw that. I mean, perfect, perfect pass on that post route to D.J. Moore. D.J. Moore, that was a hell of a play by him. I'll also say D.J. Moore like went up and got another pass working over the middle. Uh I think that was D.J. Moore's like best game uh this entire season. And I don't think that's a coincidence with the top two wide receivers out. So this month he's a wide receiver 23 on wide receiver 29 usage. The 49ers defense is extremely banged up. They're expected to be slight dogs. The weather's going to be good. I like kind of everything about the D.J. Moore stuff right now assuming Romeo Doubs and Luther Burden can't go.
Jakobi Meyers. This one's been pretty straightforward. I know Parker Washington went crazy, but Jakobi Meyers is just like he's automatic for them in the slot, crossing routes. You guys know the deal. Uh matchup wise, super clean this week inside a dome. The Indianapolis Colts on a short week. They just got shredded by the Niners. Uh their top two corners are out. Sauce Gardner not expected to play here. Team total is at 27 and a half points. This month, Jakobi Meyers is the wide receiver eight usage. There's like really like nothing negative I can really say about him.
Same thing with Michael Wilson. He ran a route on 80% of the dropbacks last week. They used a lot of like two tight end sets out there. So, not a full-time player, but Marvin Harrison was even more limited. Marvin played about 60% of the snaps. There was a big difference. There was a Marvin Harrison just go ball in the end zone, high pointed it, jumped, just drops the ball. And then on the flip side, whatever we're calling the Michael Wilson touchdown grab where I'll say he was very lucky, but does come down with it. He's just been better at the catch point right now. Um I would guess that D.J. Turner, the top corner for the Bengals, who's a really good player. I think he's probably going to go match up with Marvin Harrison. Marvin Harrison's going to play the X receiver role. Michael Wilson more of the flanker role. So he's going to be dodging D.J. Turner. Like that's the guy you want to dodge in this defense. Cardinals projected for 23 and a half points. I mentioned the injuries on the Cardinals defense already. Uh but when you're going to be projected for 23 and a half points, which is above league average and expected to lose by a touchdown and you got Jacoby Brissett dropping back, you can't really run the ball all that much. Michael Wilson. While it's not the cleanest matchup because the Bengals defense is better against receivers than the other positions, I still want Michael Wilson out there right now, especially as Marvin Harrison plays through that heel injury.
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>> Stefon Diggs had a monster game. Matchup was good for him individually and then when Kahan Booty uh went into the concussion protocol that allowed Diggs to play even more. So Diggs was out there for like 85% of the snaps without Kahan Booty is about 80%. Uh which is actually up versus where he was. Uh this is another perfect spot. I'll call it an eruption spot here. Uh looking at the passing EPA chart that I always post, the Jets have just been so ridiculous like the entire season, but especially since the Sauce Gardner trade. Chris Olave just went crazy for him, including like in the slot on like a kind of a double move. Uh which Stefon Diggs can totally do here. Uh New England's got a 28 point team total. We'll see if Kahan can come out of the concussion protocol. We'll see if Trevon Henderson can go uh out of the concussion protocol. But if you start chopping off bodies here, Stefon Diggs is going to be forced onto the field more. And I think his tape this this entire season has been pretty good. He's been very inconsistent in fantasy because he just does not play that many snaps. But this would be a good spot to just absolutely go crazy. So Stefon Diggs, I would call him more of a start than a sit. And we have to kind of choose between the two because he's just been way up and down this entire year.
T.J. Hockenson, whenever the Panthers like need to pass the ball he just goes crazy in fantasy. So he's had 10 games where he's had seven plus targets. In those games he averages 75 yards per game. In the other games which are actually wins it's like the close games that the Panthers win like the low-scoring games that's when T.J. Hockenson is a bust. So this is the Seahawks like very terrified of the Seattle defense. They're only projected for 18 points, but if the Panthers can't be bottom two, bottom three in neutral pass rate, which they want to be, and they have to pass the ball, then the ball ends up going to T.J. Hockenson. And whenever the ball goes to T.J. Hockenson, it works. So, like we saw it against the Blitz last week with Todd Bowles. Uh, I just like when the Panthers are expected to lose, they're seven-point dogs at home in a game that does matter for Carolina. These are the type of games where T.J. Hockenson gets more targets than usual and that's when we want to start T.J. Hockenson. So I see Seattle defense. I get nervous for a second and then I go back to the game script and he should get targeted. Let's hit that seven plus target number here.
Uh, once again, Brian Thomas is in a perfect bounce-back spot. We talked about it. You go to Patrick Surtain Island, you're not going to get the rock. That is not going to be the case here. Jess mentioned it. Sauce Gardner still out. Uh, Tre'Davious White, their other top corner. He's out. So, we got backups in the secondary for the Colts. This game's indoor. They're projected for 27 points. I know Brian Thomas is good. They figured out the right role for him. It's a volatile role. It's up and down. You got to live and die by the deep ball with Brian Thomas, but his size, his speed still stands out to me. Trevor Lawrence playing the best ball of his entire career. And this is just an opportunity where that long bomb has a better chance of hitting this week. Maybe they get him on some crossing routes on top of that just because he doesn't have Patrick Surtain in his back pocket. So I would pretty much ignore what happened last week with Brian Thomas. Last note for him, Jacksonville this month, they're now second in neutral pass rate. So it's the Patriots number one, Jacksonville 2, Broncos 3. That's pretty wild top three there. Then you get to your Cincinnati Bengals at fourth highest neutral pass rate. So they've been wanting to pass the ball a lot more. I think it's a good spot to go to the pick 'em lobby. 47 and a half total yards. You can kind of ladder this one up. There's a lot of ways to play this one. DFS dart throws. I think all that stuff is in play for Brian Thomas. And it would just be pretty hilarious to do like Best Ball Mania. Absolutely one of the biggest busts in in fantasy. Not because of injury, just because he was not playing well. And then I think there's a chance that in week 17, the only week that matters according to sources, I think he has a chance to kind of pop off here. So, uh, use promo code the show, play five, get 75. You can draft him right now, uh, in NFL playoffs best ball. You can draft him just for the week 17 slate for pick 'em. You can kind of drag that, uh, bar up for the receiving yards, touchdowns, all that type of stuff. Brian Thomas does seem like somebody that kind of stands out to me based off of the matchup.
Javonte Williams has been very up and down. Obviously last week we talked about this a lot. Jackson Dart just he failed the Brian Flores test like a lot of rookie quarterbacks do. That should not be the case against the Raiders who are arguably tanking with this game like with the Brock Bowers stuff. We'll see if that matters and translates to the defense, but it's just a very vanilla zone defense with the Raiders against those units. Javonte has performed, Jackson Dart has performed. It really was kind of more of the outlier with uh Brian Flores. Do want to note though, Andrew Thomas, one of the best left tackles in the NFL. He left with a hamstring injury. So, I can see that giving Jackson Dart a little bit um of some spooks going on as well. So, Javonte's kind of lived in this range since Melvin Gordon's injury. Um kind of been a volatile player, but I do think that the matchup makes sense. Just a little nervous without Andrew Thomas.
Terry McLaurin. This is assuming Josh Johnson is going to go uh instead of Marcus Mariota. This game's on Christmas. I'll update this if that is not the case. But still, the Cowboys pass defense is just a total embarrassment. Like even with the third string quarterback probably going to start here. The Commanders are still projected for almost 22 points, which is about league average. Terry McLaurin has been really good on tape. He's the wide receiver 20 on wide receiver 18 usage this month. Like going from Daniels to Mariota to Josh Johnson. Obviously, when you get to like this level of quarterback play, things could really kind of fall off the cliff, but I'm running about out of options and the Cowboys defense just so bad through the air right now that I'd rather go to Terry McLaurin and like kind of boom bust wide receiver three land than these other guys.
Christian Watson, this one's assuming Jordan Love is going to clear concussion protocol. He was limited in practice. It's still very much up in the air. And then if Malik Willis plays, they just run a totally different offense. Like way way way run-heavy and Malik Willis is dealing with a throwing shoulder injury. So I would have to make some pretty big adjustments if it is Malik Willis. Obviously Christian Watson's still a monster. Uh but the team total is lower than normal. 21 and a half points. Uh Green Bay in December, I can tell you it's going to be cold. I could tell you it's going to be windy. I'm guessing it's going to be snowy and rainy and all that type of stuff. So, uh pay attention to a lot of the things as all the Packers guys kind of progress through the week. This is just more of a placeholder for now.
Justin Jefferson finally got on the board this last game. Got a bunch of targets, actually converted them. That was some with Boyer, some with J.J. McCarthy. The usage has been there. Same old story. Wide receiver 24 in usage. He's just the wide receiver 70 in actual fantasy points this month. So, we'll see. It's going to be Max Boyer. He's a quarterback three for a reason. I thought he looked really, really tough uh these last couple games. I will note the Lions are expected to win pretty big here. And on top of that, the Lions secondary is a complete mess. Brian Branch is out. Terrion Arnold is out. They've had other members in the secondary miss some time. Uh everyone knows the ball is going to Justin Jefferson. Hopefully, they're accurate enough to make it uh worthwhile here. So boom bust wide receiver three. I think that's pretty fair.
Jaylen Waddle this month he's a wide receiver 31 on wide receiver 28 usage. I'm kind of hanging out in that territory. Went back and watched all the Quinn Ewers stuff. I thought it was fine. It was probably like on par with what Tua has kind of turned into uh this season. Quinn Ewers's nothing about his traits that kind of stand out. Maybe he's a little bit quicker than Tua out out out of um the pocket, but arm strength still not there to me. He's a rookie, so he's going to make some mistakes reading coverages. There was one throw uh to Waddle on a big corner route that was just way off from Quinn. So, I still think this one's still extremely volatile. The Dolphins have been trying to really run the ball as much as they can. I just don't think that's going to be as simple this week because you got the this Tampa Bay Buccaneers. So against the Buccaneers, you usually pass the ball more. Uh that would usually mean more throws to Jaylen Waddle. Um so we'll see. This is a what seventh round rookie quarterback that we're dealing with. So extremely volatile here. Um I just hope that the pass pass game script uh because of the Buccaneers uh defensive strengths kind of play into Jaylen Waddle's favor this time around.
Devonta Smith, he's been up and down. Uh he kind of always is, but this has been like the worst like stint for him in a while. I know he scored the touchdown this last week, like over like the last month. It's been pretty bad for him. Um mentioned it forecast and the weather is not going to be great for him. The team total is only at 20.5 points. Uh the Bills best players on defense are in the secondary. So I don't love the spot for Devonta Smith. He's just a lot better at football than like the next 10 guys that we're going to mention here. So, this is where I'm going into like the boom bust wide receiver three tier. Um, you know, Justin Jefferson, Devonta Smith, one guy could have like 25 more fantasy points than the other. That's just like the name of the game once we get down this low.
Zay Flowers, I'm assuming Lamar Jackson is not going to play. The team total is at under 19 points. The way that Harbaugh talks about these things just seems like they're not on the same page right now. It seems like Harbaugh thinks Lamar Jackson could like tough it out and then Lamar Jackson uh doesn't think think that's the case. That's not like just this injury. I think that's like the hamstring injury. We've seen this before like back in like the contract discussions. I don't know. Something's up between these two guys. Anyways, if it is going to be Tyler Huntley, I will say this. Huntley, to his credit, has really targeted Zay Flowers when he's been the quarterback. Zay Flowers has a 28% targets per route rate, and none of those were screens on these Tyler Huntley dropbacks. Obviously, Zay Flowers typically doesn't score touchdowns. That's especially true when the team total is under 19 points. That's especially true when you're playing in Green Bay in December. But, I do think that the targets should be there. Green Bay's defense, zone defense, the way you kind of attack them short and underneath. Uh, and I think that's where Zay Flowers does a lot of his damage when he's not fumbling the ball. So, boom bust wide receiver three without Lamar Jackson. Uh, but at least Huntley has been targeting him pretty often.
Ladd McConkey is up next. I really wish I could be ranking him higher, but I mean, who's blocking these Texans pass rushers for the Chargers? I mean, last week he was under pressure on 51% of his dropbacks. didn't get sacked. That's because Justin Herbert's just the freaking man. It's just asking a lot at this point. Team total is below average. Ladd McConkey will see some of Derek Stingley, but the Texans defense is like not because of Derek Stingley. Like their safeties are good. Kamari Lassiter is pretty dang good. Uh when their linebackers are healthy, they're good in coverage. And then they have the pass rushers on top of that. So, they've been rotating all their wide receivers around. Ladd's only the wide receiver 40 on wide receiver 42 usage this month. Uh receiving yards only at 42 and a half according to the underdog pick 'em lobby. I think he's fine, but the the floor remains pretty low.
All right, new name. I shouldn't say new. We've had Trey Tucker uh ranked um in this range before. Uh but Brock Bowers goes to injured reserve. Did want to hit on this. Brock Bowers last week played 53 of 54 snaps. I looked at his last targets. Totally fine. Nothing happens. On the last play of the game, uh that he was out there for it was an Ashton Dulin that that touchdown run. And on that game or on that play, you see Brock Bowers absolutely hauling ass like in a full-blown sprint. So, I'm sure he's injured. Like, I know for a fact Brock Bowers is injured. I can almost guarantee Brock Bowers was not like "sit me." This one kind of reeks of, hey, this game's for the first overall pick. Like, let's make sure we kind of handle this one. So, um, that said, the Giants defense is so bad that even if you take Brock Bowers out of the equation, like Geno Smith might be able to move the ball against the Giants. Like, the Giants have fired three coaches at three different times this season. Like, you don't see that. Three different times a Giants coach has been fired on that side of the ball. It's a good spot for Trey Tucker. So, here's some data to support that. There's only been 29 dropbacks without Brock Bowers and Jakobi Meyers. Like, very small sample. But in that sample, Trey Tucker had a 24% target rate. That's really strong. Without uh Brock Bowers, but with Jakobi Meyers, that was at 16%. Without Jakobi Meyers, but with Brock Bowers, that was at 18%. Let's even all that stuff out. Let's call it a 20% target. uh rate. That's pretty dang good for this range. Last week, he also played every single uh dropback. He ran a route on 100% of them. He's going to be competing with Michael Mayer, Jake Bobo, maybe Thornton. Uh it's not that difficult to get some targets in this one. So, team total is pretty strong. The pick 'em lobby really likes him at 51 and a half receiving yards. So, out of all the guys, he's probably the one that you can pick up off waivers and start. He'd probably be my favorite guy to do that with this week. Uh, and Trey Tucker, remember he had that absolutely crazy game uh couple months ago. Um, yeah, just a really weird situation for for the Raiders here. Um, but Trey Tucker, I think that he's to me easily the best receiver on the team uh at this point.
Let's get both the Colts wide receivers up there. We got Alec Pierce and Michael Pittman. Um, the Colts are not mathematically eliminated. They got a 1% chance to sneak into the playoffs. Uh, this assumes Philip Rivers is going to be the quarterback once again. Uh, Philip Rivers had like some some signs of life in that game. He cannot he literally cannot throw the ball down the field. Like I think that many people in the stands would be able to throw the football like literally further down the field than Philip Rivers, but he was still able to move the ball against the 49ers. This game's back indoors uh at home for Philip Rivers once again, and Jacksonville has allowed the highest neutral pass rate of the season. Teams are choosing to pass the ball against them. Uh that means good things for both Alec Pierce and Pittman. Pittman obviously more in the Philip Rivers range underneath, but Alec Pierce has been extremely good out there. So, um, definitely a roll of the dice, but I can see the vision.
M. Holland. M. Holland up here. Yeah, M. Holland up here. Um, this is assuming Kahan is not going to play. This is assumes that the Jets are going to remain lifeless on defense. We see it in the the team total. The Patriots are now projected for 28 points. M. Collins is not a full-time player, but they do use him in some interesting ways. Like there is some red zone attempts to him. They do get him on some kind of like trickery plays. Uh he's been the wide receiver 25 in usage this month. You know, it's a complete roll of the dice. But if I go to the pick 'em lobby, let me make sure I have this right. This one was kind of shocking to me. Matt Collins pick 'em lobby. Yep. 52 and a half receiving yards. Like there's been games where he's led the team in targets. Like this one seems silly on the surface. Uh there is going to be a little bit of weather here, so we'll have to check back in on Sunday. Um but M. Holland, Trey Tucker, we'll get to Kyle Williams in a second. This is the tier. Pick 'em up right into your dart throw range. Save the day. Uh, you know, the whole season kind of uh relies on these couple guys here for some of you. Uh, but those would be my favorite plays in terms of dart throws off the waiver wire.
I mean, Marvin Harrison, that drop killed me. He played 62% of the dropbacks last week, season low in usage. You know, like he's gonna get D.J. Turner on the outside. He's boom bust. Like, he can always rip off a big play, but he's probably not himself right now. and you know it's just not it has just not been good enough. So uh I'm not going to give him the benefit of the of the doubt. He's at 39 and a half receiving yards in the pick 'em lobby. I think that's he's the first wide receiver we've talked about that's under 40. Um so that makes sense. He's got more upside than a lot of the guys in that range, but there's no floor right now with Marvin Harrison.
Deebo Samuel, same thing with him. It's all about the Cowboys defense. Deebo Samuel has not been nearly as good since Terry McLaurin's been back. Last week was a season low in usage for him. Under five expected half PPR points. He's only the wide receiver 38 usage. This month it really is just set like a blind bet. You know what? Deebo Samuel against the Cowboys defense. Let's take a chance there. But there's nothing else about this uh that I love.
Adonai Mitchell. If you want to rank him higher than this and play him, like there is some data to support that. He is the wide receiver 24 on wide receiver 17 usage this month. I'm just not sure how much Bryce Cook I can stomach at this point. The Jets are projected for under 15 points. Adonai Mitchell is gonna go see Christian Gonzalez uh who can like match up size speedwise with Adonai Mitchell and not every corner can uh because he is like that athletically gifted but Christian Gonzalez is one of those guys. There's going to be some rain. Bryce Cook makes me absolutely nervous. So um not totally in love with it.
Parker Washington had a monster game is another good spot. We've talked about this. The third Jacksonville wide receiver indoors. Colts secondary's banged up. Uh do want to note that unlike last week where the Broncos, the way you beat them in the slot, uh right now against the Colts, you can just beat them on the perimeter. So I would be surprised if we saw the same amount of targets for Parker Washington in this game, but Jacksonville is passing the ball at the second highest rate in neutral situations this month. So he's definitely in play.
Troy Franklin up next. Uh Kahan Booty went on the conc uh is in the concussion protocol. Actually left on a stretcher on one of the last plays of the game. He's been a top 36 uh wide receiver when he's been the number two. I'm expecting that to be the case here. Talked about this with Sutton. Both the Chiefs top two corners are on the injury report. Uh McDuffie didn't play this last game. So, it's a lot easier right now for Troy Franklin kind of squeak on in uh as a wide receiver three now than before.
Chris Godwin, been very up and down. Um I think the Buccaneers offense is just very average. That would be especially true if Tristan Wirfs can't play. Chris Godwin this month, wide receiver 33 on wide receiver 31 usage. They're kind of rotating everybody around. Chris Godwin's kind of been the one that's playing the most snaps, but that can change at any moment. Uh don't see a ton of upside with Chris Godwin at this point.
Probably the funnest conversation we're going to have is Kyle Williams. And maybe the more I think about this, I might end up moving him up up up and up. Last week, Kahan Booty was not out there for 16 of the Patriots dropbacks. Kyle Williams on those 16 dropbacks was running a route on 13 of them. So that's over an 80% mark. Stefon Diggs was at 12 of 16. Matt Collins was nine of 16. So Kyle Williams made that fantastic play uh over the shoulder in the end zone. He's showed that he can absolutely run like 22 miles per hour after the catch in separate games out there. So it's all about getting on the football field. Drake Maye wants to win vertical. That's the whole point for Kyle Williams. X receiver win vertical. Um so I do think there's like legitimate upside here. Let's see if we have them in the pick 'em lobby yet. Uh we don't yet. They're scared to compete right now. Uh, but I do think that Kyle Williams would be a really fun week 17 dart throw guy you need. Uh, perfect perfect matchup against the Jets. Uh, last one probably equally as fun.
Jalen Coker. He's just been really good this year. Uh wide receiver 17 on wide receiver 48 usage this month. They can move him around the formation. He's not like totally athletically gifted, but I think that his route running and his physicality stand out versus a lot of the NFL starters at wide receiver. Just like with T.J. Hockenson, he's got a better chance uh even against better defenses when I think that the Panthers are going to have to get out of their typical game script, which is running the ball and pass the ball out of necessity. That's kind of the case this week against the Seattle Seahawks. So, only projected for 33 and a half yards. Definitely a dart throw. Uh, but kind of a fun one at that. So, that's your top 41. I really hope in your finals you're not starting wide receivers after this. Jaden Reed, Jordan Addison, Olamide Zaccheaus, Josh Downs, Zamir White, Quentin Johnston, Khalil Shakir, Romeo Doubs, Darius Slayton. That's kind of like the next uh set of guys there. But those are pure pure dart throws in case of emergency. Hopefully we have a couple of the guys at the top of this list.
All right, don't have that much time here, so we'll quickly go over the quarterbacks. You can listen to like all like the matchup notes just based off the receivers that we just talked about this. So, uh don't want to like ramble here if we don't have to. Um at the top quarterback
One, Joe Burrow. He went crazy last week. No Walter Nolan, no Garrett Williams. Both, uh, like really, like promising players for the Cardinals defense. Uh, they're projected for 30 points at home. Like, this is a perfect spot for Joe Burrow.
Uh, number two, Drake May. Jets defense hasn't stopped anybody. They're projected for 28 points. They can run him in the red zone. They can use Kyle Williams down the field, and they got Steph Diggs rolling. Uh, they've been really high neutral pass rate on top of that. There's nothing you can say negatively about Drake May right now.
Dak Prescott. Once again, Commanders missing their top two corners. They're arguably tanking on defense. They're really slow up the spine. They have like no size on the perimeter. They're projected for 29 points. Love Dak Prescott.
Matthew Stafford. What could you say negatively about him? Even when I ranked him low last week, goes absolutely freaking crazy. That was against the Seahawks in Seattle. Like, that was not supposed to happen. And he goes out there and hangs almost, what, 500 freaking yards? So, uh, this is a much cleaner matchup against the Falcons. If they beat the Falcons, not only do they help their playoff odds, uh, and their their seating, but you also get a better draft pick in return. So, like, this is kind of a double whammy for Matthew Stafford, Shawn McVey, and the boys over there in LA. Uh, I think they'll go crazy against the Falcons defense.
Josh Allen. This is the lowest I'll probably ever rank him, but his spot is a lot, uh, more difficult than the kind of status quo quarterbacks ranked ahead of him. The team total is only at 22 and a half points. Like, all the other quarterbacks we've talked about, 28, 29, 30 points. So, uh, the difference of like a real touchdown. Um, the Eagles defense is really good. You know, it's Jaylen Carter, but Josh Allen, for the most part, you, it's pretty unlikely that you have somebody else to replace him with. Uh, I can see him having a little bit of a quieter game. Uh, but Josh Allen's just been like, clearly the fantasy quarterback one for for quite a while at this point. So, benefit of the doubt.
Trevor Lawrence, Brock Purdy, Caleb, Jacobe, Bo Nix. I think all these guys are pretty strong quarterback ones. So with Trevor Lawrence, he's playing the best ball of his career. Their second highest in neutral pass rate this month. Their sixth highest in projected points up at 27. Indoor game, Colts short week, they just got obliterated by the 49ers. They are really bad, uh, at outside corner. They have Brian Thomas and Jacobe Meyers out there. Uh, and we're starting to see like a bunch of like free production after the catch. We've seen that especially with Travis Etienne, uh, the last couple weeks. Um, that's all because of Liam Cohen. So Trevor Lawrence is benefiting from that. He's like making plays with his legs on top of it. So I think he's a firm quarterback one.
Brock Purdy, uh, takes a hit because no Ricky Perea, no George Kittle, but Purdy is moving around a whole lot better, uh, since that toe injury. Uh, they got the by-week to kind of settle him down. They're projected for 27 and a half points. The Chicago Bears can absolutely put up a bunch of, uh, points against the 49ers defense. So, this one has like shootout potential to me since he's returned. 49ers first in EPA per play. Christian McCaffrey, he's just route running. Like, it's not like the other, you know, 31 NFL starting running backs. They're like using him down the field. So, like, even when you don't have Kittle and Perea, Christian McCaffrey is like a real threat to like win like slot fades and stuff. It's actually insane. Uh, but got Jauan Jennings on top of it. He can run around. Uh, full faith in Kyle Shanahan in kind of a must-win game for the 49ers. Like, they still have a chance to be, uh, the first seed. So, really important game.
Caleb Williams on the other side of the ball. He's been awesome. Obviously, the explosives are there when he, he is taking off and running. There are not many quarterbacks that are faster than he is right now. So they're still projected for 25 points. This should not be a weather game for him. The 49ers pass rush had like some signs of life last week, but for every other game, uh, without Nick Bosa, they have not been able to rush the passer. All of Caleb Williams' best stuff comes in that third, fourth, fifth, uh, second after the snap, and he should have a lot of those opportunities here because the 49ers pass rush.
Jacobe Brissett. Uh, you know, they're expected to lose by seven points. So, game script is on his side. They're also still projected to score 23 points, which means that he's still going to have touchdowns. Trey McBride's in like the best matchup you can possibly imagine against the Bengals, uh, linebackers and safeties. So, Trey McBride's going to go absolutely crazy. Uh, and Jacobe Brissett's going to drop back a million times. So, he's been a fantasy quarterback one, uh, for quite a while. And I'm not expecting that to change here.
Bo Nix, you know, top three in neutral pass rate this month since that's kind of been the case since they've lost JK Dobbins. That means more air yards. That means more Courtland Sutton. That means more scramble potential for Nix here. Uh, Kansas City defense threw in the towel last week. No Trent McDuffie. Uh, potentially no Jaylen, uh, Watson as well, outside corner. Very clean spot for them. Uh, they've got a lot to play for with that first seed.
Baker Mayfield. We'll see about Tristan Wirfs' status with that toe injury. Uh, but he's got all of his wide receivers rocking and rolling. Uh, this is a pretty clean matchup individually. They're projected for 26 points. Miami, uh, better weather than other parts of the country at this point. So, yeah, Baker Mayfield, his film has just been not very consistent, but, uh, he still runs around enough. He can definitely get hot in the game. You like the goal-line touchdown that he had to Mike Evans. So, uh, better in fantasy than in real life at this point.
Jalen Hurts, about as low as I can possibly rank them. They're only projected for 21 points. We got, you know, slow pace scheme because the Bills run the ball. The Eagles will run the ball. I've liked some of the wrinkles the Eagles offense has done the last couple weeks here. Um, but everything about Sean McDermott just disguising looks, lots of zone coverage, like that's when you start seeing Jalen Hurts escape to the right and throw the ball away. So, uh, we'll see. I think Lane Johnson is due back here. That would be a big boost. I might move him up a couple spots if we do get that confirmed. Um, but yeah, more of a boom-bust quarterback one than like an absolute must-play for Hurts.
Jared Goff, uh, projected for a bunch of points. Um, they've been able to handle the the Brian Flores defense. That makes sense to me. Veteran, um, offense over there. Do want to say they had a center that I've never even heard of last week. And then Christian Mahogany, um, a second-year player at guard, was coming back from injury early. The offensive line was just like not good enough. Now, that meant they couldn't pass or they couldn't run the ball, which meant more pass attempts for Jared Goff last week. It does make me a little bit nervous when you're facing the Vikings and their defensive tackles, their edge rushers, uh, and that scheme when the offensive line right now is just like in the worst shape it's been in a while. So, still projected for a bunch of points, um, but more of an upside quarterback two.
Same thing with Sam Darnold. This is kind of where he's just lived for for quite a while. The team total is really strong, 25 and a half points. They have a lot to play for. Um, they've been passing the ball a little bit more recently. Um, be I think that's because they've got like full complement three wide receivers. Um, AJ Barner, obviously JSN's going crazy. Um, so Sam Darnold, he's been more of an upside quarterback two. I don't see anything changing that, uh, picture right now.
Jackson Dart. I've moved him down a little bit, um, because the quarterback design stuff just keeps going up and down. Like last week we didn't see it. Two weeks ago we did see it. Um, before that he was in the concussion protocol. Like, I don't know exactly what they're trying to do here. I do know that Brian Flores is not on the schedule this week and this is just a way more vanilla defense with the Raiders. So they've been really, really run-heavy recently. They're 31st in neutral pass rate this month. Um, and if he's not going to be as part of that, then his fantasy stock does begin to take a little bit of a hit.
Tyler Shough. Since week 10, he's the quarterback 12 in fantasy. We saw those, you know, like zone read, uh, moments from him, but for the most part, just been like operating inside the pocket. Ball kind of explodes out of his hands, if I'm being honest. And they just like really like him out there. Like mental capacity seems really strong. Um, you know, they're projected for 21 points. It's a Tennessee Titans defense out there. So it's like another clean matchup for him. So I do think that Tyler Shough is like somebody off waiver wire. Like, let's say you lost Mahomes or you lost Lamar Jackson, you name it. I do think that Tyler Shough could be one of the guys to kind of save the day.
Justin Herbert. You know, it just makes me nervous when you're facing the the Texans defensive line. Everyone knows that, uh, team total is pretty low, under 21 points. He was incredible last week. He's even running around more. So that's maybe like where the offense can kind of feel stuck, but in fantasy, his numbers have been a little bit better because he will take off and run. Uh, it's just a lot to ask for right now with Justin Herbert.
Jordan Love limited in the concussion protocol, plays on Saturday night, so we'll know well ahead of time if he's going to be playing or not. Uh, Ravens defense right now, pass rush is like pretty mediocre and then their secondary, they've got like a lot of talent back there, but more coverage bust, been a little bit more up and down. Like Marlon Humphrey's been beat down the field. So, uh, not the cleanest spot. Uh, only projected for 21 and a half points, but Jordan Love is kind of where he's been, um, for a lot of the season, coming off of a dud week. You got the Chargers defense, they're really good. They're on the road, not projected for a whole lot.
Kurt Cousins, they're also not projected for a whole lot against the Rams. Tough matchup. Bryce Young, tough matchup against the Seahawks. Geno Smith, no Brock Bowers. Um, very good matchup though. Otherwise, Aaron Rodgers, tough matchup against the Browns in weather, no DK Metcalf. Cam Ward, you know, the Tennessee Titans, you can only rank them, uh, so high. Tyler Huntley, um, you know, like in Green Bay. I don't know, man. Not for me.
And then the rest of these guys, Philip Rivers, Josh Johnson, Quinn Ewers, Max Proxmire, Shador Sanders, Brady Cook, Chris Aludaun, these guys will not be starters next year and moving forward. So, uh, I really hope we have better options than this in Superflex leagues. There's really no reason to be playing any of those guys. So, um, yeah, up on Trevor Lawrence, up on Caleb and Brock Purdy, Jacobe Brissett holding down the the four. Those are kind of like the tier of like you want to at least have guys in that S or A tier.
But quick show, 54 minutes. Went through both positions. Um, hopefully not too much rambling from me. Uh, we'll be back. Like I said, Sunday night live show after Sunday Night Football. I want to hear from you guys. Are you guys winning your matchups? What do you guys need for Monday Night Football? Uh, where did you place in baseball mania? Who did you wrong? Who did you right? We'll be celebrating all that stuff and recapping the games a little bit. But Sunday night, we'll be there. Sunday morning, we'll answer some sit-start questions. I'm going to be moving these guys up and down, left and right, based off of weather, based off of news, based off of more, um, research.
Uh, thanks for liking, subscribing, playing on Underdog. Promo code the show, play five, get 75. We're in 40 states, beautiful states. Get out there, get on the app. Uh, use a pick and lobby to help sort out some of your sit-start questions. On top of that, share it with a friend. We'll be back Sunday morning. See you guys then.