Wall Street Has Changed The Game…

Today's number is 75, as that represents the billions of dollars that have been borrowed by the biggest tech companies over just the last two months to fund data centers. So why does this matter, and how much bigger could it get? Well, I think that comes back to where we expect this all to end. And in today's video, we'll take a look at both an investor's and trader's mindset into what's important to look at right now in the markets, including what OG whales are now doing with their Bitcoin that has it looking like 2021 all over again. There's a key point coming up, and there's a huge decision to be made. So, join us in this special weekend edition as we take a look at stocks, commodities, and cryptos around the world to better understand what Wall Street could be up to, and why you need to be paying very close attention over the next coming weeks and months. See you guys soon.

Well, welcome back, everybody, to the special weekend edition of the Daily Show. My name is Thomas Atkison, and in today's video, we're taking a look at the macro, the data that you need to know, and of course, what has Wall Street been up to, including some key options levels that we need to look at later on today's video. But to kick things off, I think it's best to start with actually one of the biggest risk markets in the world, which is now, of course, Bitcoin and crypto in general. Now, we've long argued that there may be a difference this cycle than every other one. Remember, we now have facing off with where usually Bitcoin starts to perform incredibly badly. And there are some signs that are a little bit worrying, which we need to look at right now together.

One of these includes this chart here from Charles Edwards over on X, and it really shows here that OG whales have been dumping big time, similar to what they did during the highs of 2021. Now, why is this important? Well, the red lines represent around $500 million positions, and the orange lines represent $100 million positions. And you can clearly see there's a huge amount of transactions that have been going on from some of the biggest, most steadfast Bitcoin holders of all time. And this has people worried about what happens now that Wall Street has entered the chat, has entered effectively the crypto markets. And it could have more dramatic amplification and ramifications when it comes to the rest of the stock markets, and of course, markets around the world.

Now, what have we seen during 2025 and '24, really rise? It's been the rise of the Bitcoin treasuries. And these firm bubbles are now starting to actually pop, with many of them having to unload BTC to cut debt. And you can see here, according to this one, 970 bitcoins were needed to redeem half of its convertible debt, reducing the total liabilities from $189 million to $94.5 million. So, basically, it's come time now that people are getting a little bit scared, and they're starting to say, you know what, get out. We need you to get out. And that's causing, of course, large dumps of Bitcoin onto the markets. It's also causing some problems here where institutions are actually starting to sell into this hype. And this is the problem when you enter Wall Street into any market is that manipulation becomes the number one thing that you need to start looking at. And that's why on this channel, and we'll be looking at this later on today's video, you have to watch the options market, particularly the IBIT options, where we're seeing some of the largest levels be defended by Wall Street and of course be let through, creating these massive knee-jerk reactions of huge liquidity dumps and huge rallies inside of the markets themselves. For the first time in 7 months, net institutional buying has actually dropped below daily mine supply. Now, this has notoriously not been the best sign for the crypto markets, and it's obviously another big problem when it comes to looking at the bullishness into the future.

Now, what, of course, we've been saying on this channel? Well, one of the things that we're looking for is a liquidity hit. And of course, this liquidation map here shows that we are starting to come up to a key point in these markets. Approximately beyond around $93 to $94,000. It looks like a lot of retail and both institutional buyers will be liquidated should that level be taken out. And it's a zone that we've spoken about together for some time. In fact, it's a zone that we believe could be really the nail, the nail in the coffin, or of course, the beginning of another epic rally in Bitcoin. And a lot of these decisions could be made down here purely due to the fact that liquidations will occur, and we can see that based on that chart should we get down there.

Another problem has been that whale movements, while being large, have actually been happening for quite some time. You can see by this chart back in 2021, we saw huge amounts of net selling from whales at and around that peak. Now, in other data, we've also seen similar selling at massive chunks back earlier in 2025, and we're starting to see more whales enter again, but at the same time, it's nowhere near the ferocity that they've been coming in at during usually the peaking markets. And I think this is an important factor. We've seen whales both buying and selling over the last couple of weeks, more so than usual. And this is really starting to make a key case for some people being generally bullish and some people being generally bearish.

So, how do we make a decision on this? Well, a lot of it comes back to, of course, sentiment, but also the way that the price action will trade. On this channel, we talk about the idea of patience, the idea of reacting and not necessarily predicting, and instead playing chess, not checkers, when it comes to these markets. And one of the reasons, of course, we all do this together, guys, is because we need to be able to see how Wall Street's interacting with some of these zones now that they're in the crypto markets. And of course, in terms of sentiment, we're now starting to see big problems here because people are getting concerned over quantum. Now, it's not my opinion that quantum will be here by this point, but of course, there is this quantdoomclock.com website, and it says here that quantum computers will be able to steal all your keys by March 8th, 2028. Now, I'd be really interested to know what you guys think in the comments down below about whether you believe this is going to actually be reality. But this is, of course, one of the biggest problems of, of course, Bitcoin right now and indeed the crypto markets because if quantum computing was this close together, then it will be one of those major big problems, and of course, this could create integrity issues inside of the Bitcoin market and crypto markets, and would basically be diabolical. So, it is an argument, of course, against what we've often said is part of the holy trinity: gold, silver, Bitcoin, all great properties, especially if you're going against, let's say, fiat and the current fiat system that we see around the world.

So, what's the big issue? Well, you can see here from top-down charts, one of the big problems is that Bitcoin has always, to a degree, been kind of trading with and in line with, of course, the NASDAQ. Now, that has changed as of pretty much the last kind of six months in particular. And you can see here since Liberation Day, we actually haven't seen Bitcoin doing anywhere near as well as the rest of the NASDAQ. And this has become quite unusual. The similarities between most of the markets have been almost uncanny in terms of risk off, risk on. And a lot of this has to do with now people are seeing AI and data centers as actually more interesting than Bitcoin itself. And you can see here that semiconductors have been going absolutely ballistic in market weight while the rest of the market, such as crypto, have not really been seeing this. And this is from Callum Thomas at Top-Down Charts. Some really good charts here. Another thing is that people seem to want tech debt more than they want anything else. And you can really see here that CDS have been basically going absolutely ballistic when it comes to tech. So, there is an AI credit boom, and there's certainly been a lot of borrowing. And it brings us to our biggest issue, probably in the future. What is happening right now when it comes to the private equity loans and of course AI? Because now we know that the biggest companies in the world, that is Amazon, Google, Meta, Microsoft, Oracle, and others, are starting to borrow at extremely high rates. Just over the last 2 months, we've seen a massive explosion, courtesy here of Mike Zaccardi and Bank of America, of this chart which basically shows that bonds and loans are starting to accelerate at levels we've just not seen for the last decade. In fact, this is the similarity between what we've actually witnessed back in the tech boom and what we're witnessing now. And it makes us further kind of believe in that narrative that we've been talking about for a while, which has us somewhere in the '98, '99 kind of period when it comes to this current AI boom. Is it a bubble? I think probably. But at the same time, when does it pop? Well, let's take a look now at some of the big problem signs, and then of course, we'll wrap it back into where we think it is right now.

And one of those big problem signs has been this chart here, which is, of course, the Hindenburg Omen, the Titanic in terms of signal that we saw the other day. Yeah, they got some weird names, guys. It's like a film, of course. But we've also seen a lot of these starting to come in. And we've just had four Hindenburg Omens in front of each other, which of course is starting to create what we call a cluster. Now, in the past, clusters have been one of the big problems. And clusters often mark out problems, particularly when it comes to a few months away, and even upwards of 12 months away. You can see here in the charts that generally when we have just this many Hindenburgs so far, that the next 12 months are pretty good, but there can be a little bit of problems, especially over the next 1 to 2 months. The University of Michigan has also released their latest consumer sentiment report. And the problem with this is that we're seeing not only Hindenburg Omens, but we're also seeing people with terrible sentiment. Sentiment generally that only shows up during a bear bust, to be real. And this actually is a very interesting one because it generally leads to being more bullish. This is courtesy of MarketSurge over on X, and it again shows that people are very negative. So, there is a polarized market here. Now, often times we say on the channel, if everyone's bearish, you're better off being bullish. And of course, the Michigan surveys have been negative all year. And we've also seen some really, really terrible, of course, sentiment surveys, which we've been using as a counter in these markets to go along with the current price action, which of course has been quite bullish.

So, why does this all really count for something? Well, it comes back to what is retail consistently doing? And we can see here, courtesy of Eric Balchunas, I think it is, over on X, that it looks like most retail traders continue to buy every single dip. Now, this wasn't the dip that ended up getting us into the 600k level. This was the dip actually taken as of Thursday, where of course the market kept on dipping. But we, as retail traders, are now so conditioned that even a 1 to 2% dip is not only causing people to lose their entire account due to the fact that there's massive leverage, but at the same time, everyone is piling in on any decline. And it makes us wonder whether 2026 is going to be similar to those other midterm years: up, down, and all around, creating an excellent trading kind of market, an excellent positioning kind of market, but actually a very scary market for the leverage trader. And I think that's pretty much where we're going right now with this channel and where we're going to start seeing things because, of course, with this many Hindenburg Omens, yeah, it starts to give you a very choppy style market. You can see here that with four in general, if we take the last look at the last 50 times that we got the triggers like this, we actually ended up seeing two months later, in particular, a lot of up and down style markets, and this could even lead into 9 months of up and down style markets. So, it's certainly something that we're tracking here and that we're looking at together.

Now, the good signs are that we've had strength into strength into strength. So, since, of course, Liberation Day, most markets around the world have been making new all-time highs. So, even if you're getting negative on markets right now, you've got to remember that we've only really just seen the big tech companies start to borrow huge amounts of money to fund these data centers. We've only just seen OpenAI come to the market and say, "Hey guys, we need the government to secure us so we can borrow more." So, how long does it take? Well, we need more debt in the system. And that's why often when you see a really strong market, such as up 35% in the last 7 months, that it generally leads onto further strength, especially over the next coming months into the end of the year. And it comes back to some of those data stats that we've shared before, which means that basically, with the structure that we're currently seeing, there was a 95% chance that by the end of this year, markets would be up from this current point. So, it's pretty strong. And if you want to check out that data, you can check out our last video. And of course, uh, have a look at the stuff from Blue Kredic there.

Now, why is this important? Well, it creates opportunity. Microsoft has now been down seven straight days. And again, here, MarketSurge has actually bought up a pretty interesting chart that actually shows that the market 4 days after this, and you'll see our analysis on Microsoft a little bit later, is 87% bullish. So, it's a pretty good stat when it comes to how many times it's happened in the past and the general average return. So, hitting a key support is pretty important. And this all happens, of course, during earnings season, which so far has been frankly pretty good. And whenever people say, "Oh, but it's selling off." Yeah. But if you look at the left-hand side, what happened before the earnings? Well, of course, we saw a massive ramp-up. So, it's been a pretty bullish earnings season this year. And so far, we're seeing around 80% of businesses beating expectations. And you can see here on this chart when we blend Q3 earnings growth, we're getting something like 82.1% overall of companies that will be reported by week six, and we're getting around 80, I think it's 3% of beat rates. So, it's pretty damn strong stuff, uh, going on right now. So, bottom line is EPS is trending well, and you don't tend to see the top of a market when earnings is still growing, especially in the top 10 stocks. And when you take a look at the top 10 stocks, they have been incredibly strong when it comes to the general earnings results. And that's, of course, bullish for now in this market, even if you believe it's a bubble.

Let's have a look at the S&P 500 when it falls more than 1% but closes positive. That's exactly what happened as we hit the Q level, of course, 600. You guys know if you were watching the videos over the last 2 to 3 days, it's exactly where we thought the markets would get to. And there are some reasons why we believe Wall Street bought that dip at that point, but it's pretty encouraging when you take a look at the way that the markets actually did rally off that. On top of that, you can see here some of the data stats. When you're actually looking at these particular changes in markets, often times it will actually trigger an overall style positive market, especially a few months later. So, what we may have just seen is the beginning of some volatility through this November period, but at the same time, it's very strong into the next two months. And you'll see that down here, 89%. And that really stacks very well with what we've been talking about recently, which is that any dips currently seem to be being purchased because people are very excited about the growth of data centers and the growth of, of course, the AI market. And, um, people are projecting now that by 2032, it's going to be $1.8 trillion of revenue. Now, I'm not so sure that those numbers will be correct, but again, the market doesn't care. It always looks at those future growths, and that's what it's looking for.

So, let's now take a look at the Qs here. And I know it's not got a watermark on it, but this is the triple Q. And you guys can see that we came down to the 600. And we thought before, based on our NASDAQ analysis and Q analysis, that there were probably going to be a lot of puts here, which there were, that those puts would act as a wall, which of course they did, and that this 50-day moving average was a very key level. It also turned out to be an incredibly heavily traded zone. So, no surprises that we got a bounce off this zone. Now, for a real bull to come back in and say it's very exciting to be in here, they're going to want to take it above this price, which will work out to be about 626. But you can see here that it's a very strong bullish hammer coming off a very strong trend that is still intact. We've got a high, we've got a low, and we still have a higher high with a higher low. So, at this stage, you've got to say this actually looks pretty bullish on the charts.

When we move over to the US 500, you can see the same type of thing happened. We came down to the daily 50. We came down to around this 6660 zone. We went underneath 6750, which obviously spiked the market lower, and then we've seen a bounce off that. So, a key level that we'll be looking at this week is 68.27, because if we do get a higher high than that, then it kind of details that probably the buyers are going to recommence and start pushing higher. I do remember people like Tom Lee and others are, of course, incredibly bullish on these markets due to mostly spend from businesses that is supposedly going to enter into, of course, higher earnings. At least the way we look at it is earnings was good, and generally markets will not top out when earnings are still good. It takes time after a bad earnings that you really want to be starting to question everything, and we just haven't seen that at this stage.

Let's jump on over to, of course, what happened in the options market. And no surprises, guys, everyone jumped on puts, just like normal. Everybody jumps on the puts as soon as the markets shake out. And this is kind of again going to be helpful this week to potentially propel markets up because you guys can see here, there are puts everywhere. So, if markets stay underneath, let's say 6,800 for too long, then that could create a really big negative gamma event, which you can see here, and of course, they could start to waterfall through. So, levels to watch, particularly, are going to be the daily 50 moving average on the Qs, and if that gets dropped, then we're in a little bit more of a trouble. And for now, of course, we expect this to kind of act as a generalized base for these markets as everybody has jumped into puts, and you can see the size volume isn't there yet, but I'm pretty sure it'll get bigger as of next week.

When it comes to Tesla, we're back at 430, which is pretty much a major support level. Obviously, the trillion-dollar CEO pay deal. When Elon can make, you know, the stock worth, what is it, $9 trillion or something like that, he gets paid some big money plus some other major things he has to do, but clearly the market's not that happy with it. This has been what we've seen as generally being a positive gamma event style market. And we'll talk about the charts a little bit later in today's video. It's not all over yet for Tesla, but it is at a very key support, which we'll discuss.

For Nvidia, it is still up, but of course, sideways. The semiconductor market needs to be watched, and IBIT is continuing to play with this 57 and 58, which you'll notice here are incredibly big puts. So, if we drop this level, then we're probably going to go down to around that 93 to 94K on Bitcoin, and that is, in my opinion, anyway, the most important zone that we have faced off in terms of bulls and bears and sentiment for that particular risk-on asset.

What about gold? Same thing as usual, guys. We expected it to have a blow-off. It has. It's sitting. It's doing it. It's exactly what the stats have shown us over the last couple of months. So, gold, you know, really finding pretty much support around that 50 moving average, and of course, that 360 on the options.

Now, just a quick announcement. Obviously, I am doing this from a remote location, so hopefully the audio is working out and everything, but I want to get it out for you guys because I do appreciate each and every one of you. So, thanks so much for the support. But we'll jump in now to, of course, the charts, and the show will be back to the normal quality as of next week. But let's first off have a look here at what's going on when it comes to bond spreads. And you guys can see here, bond spread has spiked up, but it's not gone to the danger zone. So, again, at this stage, dips are usually going to be purchased, and there doesn't seem to be too many problems in the bonds market for now. And in fact, if a company has got good credit history and good credit sheet, it looks like most people are just lending as much money as possible to create the next data center or anything to do with the word AI.

So, when it comes to IBIT, I've started charting this for you guys in the crypto verse because, of course, I think this is a very important level down here. We can see how the 58, 56 level is being kind of supported by the markets. We can also see how important this level is being. But I think actually the key down here between like 53, 54 on IBIT is going to be a big one. And if we have a look here at the Bitcoin market, you can see not only do we have anchored VWAPs down here, previous demand, but also, uh, so many confluence levels that do interchange with around this 93, 94. And that's exactly where the liquidity would be grabbed, uh, gobbled up as well when it comes to actually some of the biggest retail trade positions, particularly those leverage ones. Now, could it bounce off here? Absolutely. And we'll be looking for, of course, to have that patience and react to it. It's not a bad level. Anywhere between 98 was obviously our first zone, but we haven't taken this low out yet. And it starts to make me wonder whether this is more likely. And obviously, if we drop this, then we could be in for significant problems in the crypto markets, and we'll be paying a lot of attention.

The other thing is that we've seen many crypto markets, including Solana here, Ethereum, and others, all come down to heavy trade levels, including Solana, which is now at its most traded zone of the last kind of 6 months. So, obviously, some important stuff going on there.

In terms of defensive markets, more of the same. We're seeing a bit of rotation going through, guys. We've got healthcare on the rise. We've been talking about that for a couple of months now, and it's been doing pretty well. Again, it's counter to what a lot of people would say is in the press, but hey, price action over people's opinion and bias.

In terms of the dollar index, you can see here, guys, it was up. It's come down off this blue line, which is the daily or the weekly 50 in this case, but I think we could still run the dollar into around 101.60. It's still technically bullish on the smaller time frame, series of higher highs, higher lows. So, it looks okay for now.

When it comes to gold, gold is sitting around 4K. Obviously, this volatility is making people want gold even more, but it needs to have a rest after what was a ballistic run. And I always say congratulations to all of you guys that were in gold and silver because, yeah, we were bullish on it, but, um, geez, it worked out even better than I expected. You know, the runs here on these metals were, well, once in a 100 years, yeah, in terms of how big the run was with no pullback. So, this is well overdue. It's perfectly fine, and we'll give the key levels should we actually see breakouts on those.

With US oil, it's still stagnating, which we thought it would. Per barrel, 62.50, 60 will be an interesting zone in the future. Inverse head and shoulders is possible. For now, it's kind of neutral on that chart. And of course, then there's Tesla. Now, we do have a retail steel level around 411. We do have 430 puts. We have 400 puts as well. But this is actually a pretty important zone because you can see here on the daily, it's kind of gone underneath some of people's stops. And although the weekly is quite strong, this is a fairly heavy trade area. So, whenever you're looking at these, always check out your fixed range, and you'll notice that we get a lot of trades through here. So, really, everything in here has been actioned a lot by somebody, at least. And if the markets then do rally back above, that's, I think, a very good sign for the, the actual stock. But clearly, there are believers and people that are not so happy with these very large numbers that are being thrown around at Tesla. I do expect at least into 2026 that Elon is going to be on a massive, massive PR stint, and he'll be talking about flying cars, probably a flying robot like a superhero. Who knows? He'll be selling. And, you know, one thing Elon does well, he is very good at projecting the future onto people and and getting people on board. So, we'll see whether that ends up impacting onto the stock.

When it comes to the overall market health, of course, we always look at semiconductors, guys. Semiconductors looks exactly like, guess what? Yeah, the Qs, the NASDAQ. So, does that look bearish? Not really. It's a series of higher highs and higher lows with a really good bounce off a level that we expected it to see a bounce on. And again, you can look for a higher high here, uh, to be a really good sign that the markets will go to an all-time high. And for now, that is a pretty nice bullish hammer. So, again, levels if that happens, you know, double bottom and small time frames, there's plenty of opportunities this week on the semiconductors market.

Chinese market, no difference here. We're still bullish on it. You guys know we have been for a while, so pretty strong stuff there on the Hang Seng and the NASDAQ, of course, as you can see here, three touches, including that flash sell into the 50. So, why has this level been, at least initially, bought? That's the reason we drop this zone. Hey, we've got something to talk about in terms of bearishness, but for now, anyway, it looks like the bulls were back, and of course, that's a strong sign along with the loans that are coming in, along with the retail traders that are just buying every single dip out of control.

There will be a point where we're going to see extreme volatility that will wipe out, of course, this leverage and will wipe out people already. I have never seen it before when markets move down 1 or 2%. People are freaking out like it is wiping people's accounts. So, I would say the leverage in this system is starting to get critical. And you can see here, based on that Microsoft data we had before, that this particular stock has come down to a key support. Now, this is where people, of course, buy the FN dip. Uh, but at the same time, why? Well, they're buying it purely because it's dropped down to a key support. Okay, that's pretty good. But if, of course, if it keeps dropping, it's like a double top. So, there are quite a lot of big tech stocks that are at very critical levels, including Meta, which we'll look at.

Now, the data stats do suggest that generally speaking, over time, now Meta, or in this case, Microsoft, should actually be a buy, but we don't actually have that on the charts. All we know is it's come down to an oversold level, and it's very similar to XLP, actually, which we'll be looking at in our next video.

Now, when it comes to Meta, you guys can see here, it's basically a gap fill, which is pretty cool. And again, it just shows you that buying the dip in the middle of nowhere is stupid. Buying the dip at, at least a half-decent solid level is much better. Fibonacci key level, obviously oversold, all sorts of reasons why that might be a little bit better. But it's key that we're getting quite a few top 10 stocks that are finding these zones, including semiconductors, which means that, of course, Nvidia is also somewhere around that.

Guys, we didn't end up getting, of course, any more data from the US. That is a big warning sign in the future. We will, of course, track all of this, and the inflation concerns are also starting to come back, and there are many problems on the horizon. But as we often say, come from the abundance mindset, find new opportunities, and do remember markets love to climb the wall of worry. When everyone thinks everything is fantastic, you can get some epic runs at the end. But generally speaking, if you want that kind of two steps forward, one step back market, somebody has to have something to complain about. So, for now, what we're seeing is spend, spend, spend, AI, AI, AI. And the top 10 stocks are still giving good earnings, which suggests that, of course, the data stats for at least being bullish over the next couple of months are still presenting. What happens when they go bad, though? Well, that's another question.

Make sure to subscribe, hit that bell, comment down below with your thoughts on some of the questions we had in today's video, and have a fantastic rest of the weekend, guys. It's great to have you here. Bye for now.