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On January 3rd, 2026, one Poly Market user made $436,000 in less than 48 hours. Their secret? They knew the United States military was about to arrest the president of Venezuela before anyone else did. The account was brand new, created just days before. They made exactly four bets, all related to Maduro's removal. And hours later, the raid happened.
Over 3 million people have used prediction markets like Poly Market and Kelshi to gamble on things you never thought possible, from what the weather will be to what will happen in your favorite TV show. And while they've essentially taken over gambling culture overnight, almost nobody knows how rigged the system truly is and who really has the advantage.
Let's look at the account named Burdensome Emix, created one week before the Venezuela raid. Look at their bet history. $32,000 on "will Maduro be out by January 31st." $250 on "will Trump invoke the War Powers Act against Venezuela." $1,000 on "will the US invade Venezuela by January 31st." $146 on "will US forces land in Venezuela by the end of the month." They bet four specific scenarios, all Venezuela. All within days of the actual operation.
And here's what makes this absolutely wild. News organizations knew about the raid ahead of time. CNN, the Washington Post, they all had the story, but they held it to protect troops. Meanwhile, someone was loading up their Poly Market account with massive positions. We may never know who this person is, but it is almost a guarantee they were one of the few people on the planet in the know. In fact, there were two other accounts with the same level of shadiness, and they were created and funded just hours before the raid, turning $6K into $80K and $25K into $170K.
This is just one situation that highlights a massive problem with prediction markets: insider trading. Dennis Keller from Better Markets puts it perfectly: "The odds of losing money on these platforms are incredibly high, unless you have information nobody else has."
But it's not just Maduro. In December 2025, someone made nearly $1 million betting on Google's year-end search trends. They got 22 out of 23 predictions correct on specific search terms that Google controls. Let me tell you something. How do you predict what Google's algorithm will show as the top searches of the year? Unless you work there or know somebody who does.
As a disclaimer, I've personally used these markets and am about to break even. So, no, I'm not making this video as some disgruntled customer that's upset about losing money. But it's starting to feel like I'm at a poker table where everyone else knows the game is fixed except for me.
And of course, there's the infamous Coinbase earnings call. At the end of a quarterly call, Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong said this: "I was a little distracted because I was tracking the prediction market about what Coinbase will say on their next earnings call. And I just want to add here the words Bitcoin, Ethereum, blockchain, staking, and web 3 to make sure we get those in before the end of the call."
Now, why is he just rattling off words, you may ask? The answer is because Poly Market had props if Brian would say those words on the earnings call, and he admittedly read them off directly from Poly Market. Now, there's no proof or any reason to believe he was placing bets here, but it goes to show how one person with knowledge and power could easily influence these outcomes.
So the question becomes, are the prediction markets another rigged system designed to take your money, or are these insider trading situations just isolated incidents in an otherwise fair market? Well, here's the data, and you can decide for yourself.
Blockchain analyst DeFi Oasis analyzed 1.7 million Polymarket addresses. And you know what they found? 70% of users have lost money. And of those remaining 30% who made money, a tiny 0.04% (or less than 1 in 2,000) profitable users captured over 70% of all profits. We're talking $3.7 billion concentrated in the hands of roughly 700 accounts. For context, that's about $3.5 million each.
But when I see these numbers, these prediction markets feel like less of a degenerate gambler's paradise and more of an insider trader's paradise, which personally makes me want to withdraw all my money. Because even though deep down it reminds me of gambling, these markets still make it feel like you can find an edge or an advantage that isn't pure luck. For example, I would look for outcomes that were between 90% to 95% and buy those outcomes. After all, the stock market index funds yield 8% to 10% on average. So, hypothetically, one or two of these wins could beat the stock market.
Reasons like this are why prediction market usage has exploded over the last year. These platforms weren't built to feel like reckless gambling. They were made to feel accurate, and that's exactly what pulls people in. These platforms have gone from obscure tech experiment to mainstream in less than a year. And the growth has been so fast that DraftKings and FanDuel, the kings of sports betting, both launched their own prediction market apps in December 2025 just to compete. When the biggest gambling companies in America are scrambling to copy you, you're not just some niche experiment anymore.
And while insider trading may seem like an issue with these markets, it isn't exactly an unfortunate byproduct. It's more of a feature. You see, prediction markets were created many years ago because people were fed up with forecasting. Polls were unreliable. Experts wouldn't commit to who they think would win, and group consensus was wrong a lot of the time. So, economists came up with an idea: What if you could influence people to put money behind their beliefs? The thinking was simple: When money's on the line, people tell the truth. And that's where prediction markets come from. That's why these markets use language that is very purposeful. They don't call users gamblers; they call them participants. And they don't say bets; they say contracts. They position these markets as skill-based, information-based, and financial, not based on chance like gambling.
But here's where the whole philosophy behind prediction markets falls apart. Robin Hansen, one of the leading economists who championed prediction markets, said, "If the point of markets is to get accurate information on prices, then you definitely want to allow insiders to trade." Read that again. The entire system is designed to encourage insider trading because it makes the prices more accurate. Who has the edge on these? The CEO's assistant, the academy voter, the Pentagon staffer, the Google engineer. And who doesn't? You.
Another area for concern is if these prediction markets leak information early or can be manipulated to spread fake news. Remember our friend who made $436,000 on Maduro? What if this trader started a trend where everyone is watching these markets to predict what will happen with geopolitical issues? This Maduro gambler placed wages to make money, but imagine a nation's government placing a big bet solely to create panic. Things could get out of hand so fast.
Another concern with these markets is: are they even legal? Poly market was once raided by the FBI but recently rang the opening bell for the NYSE. As for Kelshi, they have their own legal drama. They wanted to offer betting on which party would control Congress. The CFTC said no. "These are gambling contracts, not legitimate financial instruments." So, Kelshi sued. And in September 2024, they won. A federal judge said the CFTC overstepped and Kelshi could offer election betting. When the Trump administration took office, the CFTC dropped its appeal entirely. The case is closed. Election betting is legal.
But here's where it gets messy. Kelshi now offers sports betting in all 50 states. States like Nevada and New Jersey sent cease and desist letters saying, "You're violating our gambling laws." Kelshi sued them, arguing federal law preempts state law. They won in Nevada and New Jersey. They lost in Maryland. The system is chaos. Even DraftKings and FanDuel's prediction markets aren't available in all 50 states. These platforms operate in a regulatory black hole. They're not stock markets. They're not sports books. They exist in between where nobody's really watching.
Another thing that's really sad, and I have to imagine all of the prediction and gambling companies know this, is that the reason people are even using their platforms at this exceptionally fast rate is because, in a weird way, these prediction market platforms offer hope. We all feel the financial stress. Everyday purchases are getting out of hand. People are financing burritos with buy now pay later. Everyone feels behind, but these platforms feel like a cheat code to finally making well-deserved money.
There's a certain psychology that prediction markets tap into. Saving is slow. It's boring and it takes time. But prediction markets are immediate. They feel productive and they make us feel like we're actually doing something with our money. And by the way, we have tons of resources on this channel if you're someone who is feeling the financial anxiety that so many of us are right now. Whether it's credit card debt, fixing a low credit score, or whatever it may be, I'll leave some video links in the description, and you should check them out. And if you're tight on cash right now and need a loan, make sure to check out the Credit Ninja website and watch this video to learn how they work with customers of all credit backgrounds to get you money fast.
Lastly, I want to cover some final alarming stats about prediction markets. Poly Market raised $70 million in funding from Peter Thiel's Founders Fund. Yeah, that guy from the famous clip. "You would prefer the human race to endure, right?" "Uh, you're hesitating." "Well, I... Yes." "I don't know. I... I would I would um..." "This is a long hesitation." It's now valued at $9 billion. Shane Copelan, at 26, is considered the youngest self-made billionaire in the world. Kelchi raised $300 million in Series D funding, valued at $5 billion. The investors are getting rich. The founders are billionaires.
So if you're thinking about betting on prediction markets, ask yourself: Do I know something that everyone else doesn't? Am I friends with the HBO CEO? Do I work at Google? Am I in the Pentagon situation room? If the answer is no, then you're not the hunter, you're the prey. Thanks for watching, and we'll see you next time.