Transcription
Hello, good morning everyone. I hope you are doing well. Today, market review. We will talk about BTC which is still sliding and falling. We will of course talk about Ethereum again. You asked me to analyze three altcoins. I noted FXS and Cake. So we will look at these three altcoins. Before I start, don't hesitate to join the Trader Letter. For those who don't know, every Sunday, I send you an email full of value. We talk about psychology, technical analysis, strategy, investment, crypto, lessons, or whatever. There you go, it's entirely free. There are quite a few points addressed every Sunday. Each email is unique. So if you miss it, you won't be able to access the email I send every Sunday. So there you go, you can click on the first link in the description to subscribe and if it doesn't interest you, you of course have the option to unsubscribe. So there you go, next email Sunday evening as usual.
So, I'm starting here with BTC which is still sliding. 4 consecutive days in the red. Are we putting in a top? Is this the end? Well, in fact, we are at really decisive levels. That is to say that the next few days, the next few weeks will be very important. My plan remains the same. I told you about BTC, if we start to settle and go below this level, it wouldn't be great for what's next. In fact, we would have an inversion of our bullish dynamic since 2023 with higher major lows. And by breaking here, we have a trend break. We can enter a range, it's possible, but in any case, we will have confirmation that we have a loss of the big momentum we've had since 2023. Then from a cyclical point of view, will it repeat again? We had seen that if we were to have a reversal, it should happen around October, September, October 2025, based on the different cycles. Since the creation of BTC, we see that every time we put in a bottom, the top was achieved 35 months later. So that's the case for 2015 to 2017 to 2018 to 2021. And then from the FTX crash in 2022, up to here, October. And if we base ourselves on the halvings in general, the top is achieved 17 months later. So is it a top? From a cyclical point of view, it would be coherent. So there you go, to be followed on this. And if it is indeed the top, generally the bottom takes about 12 months to form. Not to form, but to find the lowest point, as we see here from 2017 to the lowest point at this level, and from 2021 to the FTX crash, similarly 12 months. So if we extend, if we put in a top in October 2025, well, we would have a bearish trend until around October 2026. Of course, these are just probabilities. So you have to adapt based on what I see. And I'll quickly share the zones that interest me in case of a retracement in the long term. Already $90,000 would be a first zone I would watch, but I estimate that we are still at levels that are much too high to really position ourselves as we could in 2023 when we retraced 75%. And a good zone I would watch where we could potentially enter a big range is if we go back to around $73,000. There is a significant interest there, and if we re-enter this level, which would be a loss of a major level, especially after a 40% drop, we could see the market go back to $50,000.
Now, I don't see BTC settling below that, technically and especially intrinsically. Why? Because if I take the cost of production of BTC here, I remind you, we have miners who are constantly mining BTC. They are the ones who make the machine run, so to speak, and support the network. However, mining BTC has a cost. Okay? And automatically, if we start to go too low, we would have miners selling at a loss. And currently, the cost price of a BTC to keep miners in the positive is $41,000. This means that if we settle below this level, a large majority of miners would sell at a loss even before that. It's important to know that depending on the electricity price in each country, the cost prices will be different. For example, in France, it's impossible to mine BTC because the electricity cost is too high. So that's why it generally develops in other countries, but the electricity price is not the same in every country. So we will have a different cost price. But if we start to go below $41,000, it would clearly not be good for the miners and for the security of the network. Now, this cost will double in April 2028, like every halving, as it did in April 2024. So it will go from $40,000 to $80,000 if it stays at that level, of course, because it can evolve upwards or downwards. And historically, when we look, we have rarely gone below this level. It has happened, but it has often been a floor. So that's why I say, I find it hard to see BTC go lower. And doing this work allows us to have, as we've seen recently, steps, levels where we can start to say "Okay, in this zone, I can enter partially." So that means if you decided to invest, let's say $10,000, you can say "Okay, in this zone, I'll invest in several steps, $3,000. Here, I'll keep some cash in case we go lower, $3,000, I can reinforce a bit higher. I can keep a small part in case of a big crash or in case I get a buy signal." But it's about doing the work of simply having cash set aside. I think many of you, from our different exchanges on Discord or YouTube, understand the importance of this cash-crypto balance which allows you to have cash available today. And for some, it has simply allowed you to position yourself on the last drop we had on the big wick last Friday. And it will also allow you, in case of a bearish trend, to be much more comfortable.
For now, it's good to look at lower levels. We are at a major level. We will also monitor the weekly close. Already on BTC, if we start to go below 107 on a weekly close, so Sunday evening, it wouldn't be great. But there you go, the major level, I maintain it, it's here. It's this low. And above all, it's the psychological figure of $100,000. It's a big shock because generally, well, there you go, we are here at a six-figure level, $100,000, it generates a lot of talk when we break it. It generated a lot of talk. Going below it could be scary. It could be scary and it's simply a psychological threshold. So, and yet we are only at a drop of -20%, which is classic. When we look at the temporary top we had at this level, we were looking at -31%. So that's why we are in cautious phases. There can be longs that can be taken but with good risk management. Now, of course, it can go very fast if Trump speaks, if we have an end to the shutdown in the United States, there is the FOMC, Powell will speak in 12 days, Wednesday in 2 weeks. All of this can have positive or negative impacts. So, we will have to follow all of that. And of course, if we are currently losing the 107 level on daily, if we start to have a low wick as we are currently forming, meaning we have a good buying reaction. We will see it on the lower timeframes, we were looking quite low, $103,000. We have here the opening of the US market which is rather bullish from what we see. If we start to put in a short-term bottom and form such an important wick, representing more than 50% of the candle, it can be a small buy signal. If we re-enter this level, there can be a setup that can be taken as we had here, you see, hop, deviation, re-entry, objective to reach the opposite extreme. It's done. Okay, well, if we do the same thing, we can again be in a deviation, re-entry. Objective to reach the opposite extreme. That's why we monitor daily closes. We remain cautious because we are in a phase of uncertainty. That's a fact, but there can still be opportunities. If I look here on a shorter term, we remain bearish with moving averages oriented downwards, still at 3 minutes below 15 minutes. 15 minutes has been acting as resistance for a long time. So it's too early to talk about a bottom. As I say, it would be good to have a re-entry at 107. To go back above the 15-minute tunnel, to go back above this pivot point which has long acted as support, and then we could potentially talk about a bottom. But for now, we remain in this bearish flow. The best thing is to follow the trend continuation. We see that we have pullbacks to the 15-minute tunnel, like here, like here, like here, these are short opportunities when momentum accelerates downwards. Well, even the 3-minute tunnel can be used as, for example, today. So there you go, I maintain, we are short-term bearish, even medium-term bearish, and long-term, we are at levels that will be interesting to defend and monitor in the coming days. Otherwise, yes, it wouldn't be great for what's next. That's it for BTC regarding Ethereum.
Well, Ethereum, we are also at a major level. We will also monitor the weekly close. I told you, if we start to settle below this level, if we re-enter, if we re-enter, roughly $3,800, we would have the same type of pattern as we had here. Deviation, re-entry, buying reaction. Objective to reach the opposite extreme. We could do roughly the same thing. Knowing that we have already had a downward deviation. The objective is different. Here, I would monitor roughly the middle of the range, $3,000. Moreover, we are looking long-term. I find it hard to see Ethereum go back to below $1,300. For me, we saw it together when we were there, it was an anomaly. That's why we didn't stay there very long. So possibly here, it will be a good zone. But here, I estimate that we are at levels that are a bit too high. There can be setups that can be taken on the medium term, but on the long term, I would prefer to wait for $3,000 or even $2,200. I'm not saying these are levels we will reach. Okay, I'm not affirming anything at all when I say that. I'm just saying these are levels to watch. Now, it's true that we are still in a phase where if we put in a top, it's completely different from what we've known in recent cycles because there hasn't been a big phase of euphoria. Every time we look at data like spreads, market tops occur when there is a big market euphoria when everyone is talking about it, when your best friend talks to you about Bitcoin when they know nothing about it. These are often signs of a top. Now, we still have a market that is more mature where more people know about it. So maybe that has an impact. But in any case, if we just look at spreads, which generally don't lie, it's the difference between the price of the perpetual spot contract and the price of the Binance perpetual contract and the Binance spot contract. And we can see when there are phases of euphoria like here, like here, or generally these are phases where we put in a market top. We haven't had a phase of euphoria, so we could have a somewhat silent top, which has never happened on BTC, ETH, and altcoins in general. But there must be a first time for everything, and since we are starting to have a more mature market, maybe the phase where everyone is talking about it is over. I find it hard to believe because when BTC surpassed $100,000, people started talking about it, whether it was in the media, on social networks, etc. I don't think we will relive what we experienced in 2021 where football stars were posting crypto photos online, NFTs, or whatever. I think that's over and won't happen again. But in any case, I think we will always have phases of euphoria where everyone is talking about it. Now, it's not because we've never put in a top that we haven't had a phase of euphoria that we can't put one in now.
That's it for BTC and ETH regarding the S&P 500, traditional finance in the United States, still at high levels, we are generally in a range. We have retested the summit here, we are forming a small sideways phase here. The resolution of this phase will be very important because if we resolve upwards, a new ATH, it's going perfectly well and we will have a high chance of cryptos following, knowing that there is a good correlation between the US market and cryptos. If I compare the S&P 500 and BTC, the drop today is somewhat driven by the S&P 500. We see that precisely when the S&P 500 puts in a bottom, Bitcoin puts in a bottom. So there is always this correlation between traditional finance in the United States and cryptos. Especially with the arrival of Donald Trump and the ETFs. So there you go, we will have to monitor all of that. But if we start to make a new ATH, of course, it's bullish for cryptos. If, on the other hand, we start to validate this top pattern, inversion of our dynamic with lower and lower lows, loss of moving averages, and we could be in a more significant retracement phase with potentially a return to the level of around 6300. We have a point of interest. We would be at a drop of about -7%, which is nothing for the S&P 500. We have already had, like the crash we experienced, a -20%. 7% can happen, of course. So there you go, we have to monitor the resolution of this range, and it will have a big impact on cryptos.
Now, if I take the altcoins that I was asked to analyze, I have FTT. So FTT, where are we? Well, in fact, it's not great. Already, I had talked about it at one point when there was the merger between the three projects where they managed their communication poorly. FTT performed very well in 2023-24. From a performance point of view, it's quite enormous. We go from about 10 cents to $3. There you go, we made a x30 in performance. So it's enormous performance. Now, they decided to merge. Their communication was catastrophic, and we can see that it doesn't pay off, simply. So we are still in this bearish dynamic. We were talking about it when we were in this sideways phase where there could have been a signal if and only if we went back above this level, because then we would have had a reversal pattern. We go above the tunnel. There would have been a small signal. Well, now we are losing the levels. We are falling significantly, breaking quite important support levels. So yes, we are going back to these accumulation patterns, but the momentum remains bearish, and we are still in this bearish dynamic. So those who would be looking to buy FTT, personally, I would wait for a few weeks, a few months, for a consolidation phase, a small range to form, like what we experienced here, like what we experienced here as well. Resolution from above, it's simply a zone of combat between buyers and sellers. We break from above, so it's better to be in the direction of the flow automatically. For now, we are breaking from below. So sellers are still dominating, and for me, there's nothing to do. Here, if we put in a bottom, we can talk about it again. But there you go, it's not a strong crypto, in fact, from the moment that in 2024-2025 it drops by 90% while Bitcoin has better performance, there is no point. I remind you, when you position yourself on small cryptos like this, the goal is always to have better performance than BTC. Otherwise, there is no point. You take much more risk. So automatically, the return must follow. And if we look at FTT against BTC, well, in fact, Bitcoin is largely outperforming FTT for a long time. There you go, we see it clearly. At one point, FTT certainly outperformed BTC since BTC didn't do a x30. However, in recent months, there is no point in owning FTT. We see that we are breaking major levels. So no, FTT is currently not at all interesting.
Next, I was asked for an analysis of FXS. It's generally the same. Yes, these are cryptos that have been doing nothing for a long time, and there have been small buy signals, but we haven't had a x30 like on FTT. Now, there are still small signals that give us a x2. You see here x2, we have this type of structure, 60%. Well, there's still something to be made, but we don't have the big pattern or the big momentum that we had, which brings us back to the ATH. And then here, we clearly see a sideways phase, we break, we retest the resistance at this level. We reject, we form a range again, and now we are breaking this range from below. Okay, if we re-establish ourselves above, below, we could form a range again, retest. And as long as we don't have a bottom with a re-entry into the previous range and a reversal pattern, as we could have had if we had re-established ourselves and gone back above 4.5. If we had done that, it would have been bullish. Well, the problem is that we haven't broken it, we don't anticipate the break in advance, okay? We don't try to anticipate, but we react to what we see. And otherwise, we have a break from below, re-entry. Then it could be interesting. That's not the case currently. And similarly, if I compare FXS against BTC, it's ugly. So, I can't do it like that. So, we'll do FXS USDT against BTC unit. I don't have everything. We'll change it like that. It's still not good. It's normal, I made a mistake. It's still not good. I can't, I don't know why I can't see it. It's like that. No. Well, in any case, if we compare the two, the performance must not be very good. So currently, similarly, we are rather on cryptos where, firstly, in the short to medium term, we remain in a bearish flow. So there's not much to do. It's better to focus on strong cryptos, even if currently the whole market is falling, there are always cryptos that outperform others. We can compare here between different cryptos, or even weekly or monthly, the cryptos that stand out the most. For example, this week, TAO stands out. So it's complicated to go long at the moment since everything is bearish. But in any case, it's better to try to go long on a strong crypto than a weak crypto like MNT which drops for example by -40% or like FTT which we talked about just before which also drops by -40%.
And the last crypto, I was asked about Cake. I did an analysis not long ago, I think, where it's a bit more interesting, but we still remain in a big range. So we've had zones where we see clearly, every time we've had small buying reactions, especially in this accumulation phase, we've broken out. We've retested this phase, we've put in bottoms again. So we see that here it's a level of interest. If I zoom in on daily, it's a level that has long acted as resistance. We broke out, we are retesting this level which technically, if it acted as resistance, should act as support. That is to say, we are in a zone where buyers should show up. And if we look at the longer term, well, we have a level here, let me zoom. We have at this level, a high extreme which is roughly $5. Let's take a wide $5. If we go back to weekly above this level, well, we would have the bottom validation of this sideways phase that has been going on since 2022. So it's been a while. Now, in this phase, there are still opportunities. When I take from the low extreme to the high extreme, we are roughly at a x3, x4. So there you go, there's something to be made. Now, if we really want to talk about a major long-term bottom, we really need to break above $5. And if we trade the integrity of the range, currently we are in the middle of the range. So either we trade short-term where we are, or we wait for a return to the bottom of the range or the top of the range to look for longs or shorts because when we are in the middle like this, it's never relevant. It's not the best zone to position yourself.
There you go, I've said everything from my side. We are monitoring, as I told you, the weekly and daily close on BTC. If it pushes here with a US market, it could be rather good, which is the case currently. Don't hesitate to join the Discord if you want to discuss. And I remind you, Sunday is the Trader Letter if you want to subscribe, it's by clicking on the first link in the description. I wish you a very good evening and I'll see you tomorrow for a new video.