Transcription
1 2 1 2 Can you hear me? I hope you are doing well. I hope you are in good spirits. Tonight, we are going to have a market update that won't just be a market update, rest assured. We're going to cover a lot of things. I think it will certainly be something that will teach you a lot about what's happening right now, about how to manage 2026, about what will happen afterwards. So, just let me know in the comments as usual, and in the chat, if you can hear me well, if the sound is good, if the image quality is good, if all that is good, you validate everything for me. Apparently, that seems to be the case. Good, we're doing pretty well. And so, the goal here for this session, which will last 1 hour, 1 hour 30 minutes, I tried to do it a little earlier than usual to really talk about what's happening. We'll wait, as usual, for the latecomers to arrive, especially those on Telegram, because I had some minor email issues. So, I'll make sure that those who didn't receive the email can still get the link to access it, and we should be good. There, it's good. Great. There. Let's let as many people as possible arrive. So, why did I decide to have this market update now? Why did I do it on the 11th exactly? It's not because it's a key turning point in the cycle, and this turning point in the cycle will be essential for the coming months, and especially for 2026, and for your portfolio too. And I think it's important to talk about simple things, whether it's a bear market or not, 2026, cycle or not, how to take advantage of it? How to manage it? Why, globally, the majority of people are getting crushed, their knees are being broken in the market right now? I'm going to tell you, globally, a number of things that I can't say on the main channel. Simply put, being in unlisted content like tonight allows me to be a bit freer by default and a bit less restrictive compared to public content, open to everyone. So, that's also why there's a registration system by default, it allows me to be much freer. And above all, don't hesitate to ask all your questions. Ask your questions. I won't necessarily answer them right away. I've planned a good amount of time at the end for that, to go back over a number of questions. If I see things that connect with what I'm presenting, I might go on tangents, but the majority of questions will be answered at the end. Don't worry. I see it well, and above all, we're starting directly with Nabil, who is asking us if we are in a bear market or not. We'll answer that in any case. So, it's 7:03 PM, we're starting. I think we've waited long enough for everyone, and here we go. Can you hear me well? I see some people complaining about the sound. From my end, it seems good, though. In terms of sound. I'm using the same setup as usual, so there shouldn't be any issues. Make sure to turn up your volume, perhaps you're not used to it, the sound might be a bit lower than usual, but anyway. There, it should be good. Can you confirm for me if it's good for some, or is it just for some people? In any case, I'll check. We're going to start. We'll talk about this quickly. So, the sound is choppy for some. Apparently, there are no issues for others. Feel free to refresh the YouTube page if the sound isn't good, but apparently, it must be on your end. So, what are we going to cover today? Market status. We'll move on to TradingView right after this. We'll talk about the market, we'll talk about the market's appearance, very clearly. We'll have an update. I'll explain to you what the key zones are for me. You'll see that the situation is far from simple. But that doesn't mean it's that complicated. It's just that there's an in-between, and you'll quickly understand that it will be super important. We'll also talk about why people are getting their knees broken. As I told you earlier, we'll talk about the comparison between trading, investing, and DeFi. Something that, well, I'll try to open your minds a bit to that, and we'll open up to how to manage 2026 with what's going to happen, because 2026, I think it's going to be a pivotal year for what's to come. You'll quickly understand why, and we'll have to do a bit of macro analysis in all of this anyway. Well, listen, to charge myself up. Fortunately, I have energy tonight. So, we'll give it our all, and we'll start directly with TradingView. We'll have to go on the NASDAQ. Of course, we'll have to talk a bit about macro, even if we've had a week that's performing quite well. The reality is that when we zoom out, we see that we've really performed well, apart from our friend here, Trump, who arrived with his tariffs. But by default, we have something that's being driven, that's being driven primarily. Be careful, what happened in November 2022? A quiz. Tell me in the chat, November 2022. What happened? What caused us to reach this plateau, to establish a bottom, and to move forward again? November 2022. I invite you to write it in the chat. If you don't know, it means you haven't watched the charts I show you enough. I've talked about it several times. November 2022, it's ChatGPT. Okay? It's the launch. So, it's directly that arrived. Which gave us, in fact, an acceleration. Why am I talking about this? Why am I talking about macro? Because we're starting to see, as we saw here, as we saw here, as we saw here, a fear returning about an artificial intelligence bubble. And is it true or not? Moreover, what's very funny is that this morning, I looked at my news feed, and what did I see? I saw Hugo Décrypte talking about artificial intelligence or its burst. I didn't look, I didn't have time. But the fact that it's starting to appear in the mainstream in this way, well, it's starting to tickle me. When it's like this, I tell myself that a number of things are happening, and that it might not be an AI bubble, but that doesn't prevent us from starting to be afraid, and so the fear is found here. And I don't think it's just artificial intelligence. By default, we've had a good valuation. I recall that from the bottom, if we take the bottom, I did it a bit roughly, but we had 143-142% on the NASDAQ. So, a pretty good performance in just a few years. When we look at it, it's 2023, well, late 2022 to 2025, so in 3 years, which is a really huge performance, and so everyone is afraid of overvaluations and consequently is afraid of the interest rate hike, especially with a frightening Trump, a shutdown that's not yet managed, a Jerome Powell talking about a potential recession and that's why he's lowering rates, a debt that weighs like a dead weight. Now, regarding this, it's not even in France, really in the USA, I mean, even if in France we also have a debt problem, but the USA is even worse, so it's very difficult to refinance, and we've had a liquidity contraction for some time now. Well, that's the macro side right now. Okay? So, that explains why, by default, it's tense. You need to understand that the situation is tense on risk assets, not just BTC, on risk assets in general, because we have all of this happening. To that, you add two other things. First, an end of year. I'm not talking about the end of a 4-year cycle, I'm still not in the altcoins, I'm still not in BTC, but just an end of the year where we know that by default, the end of the year is when there's profit-taking. Whereas we had, when we had, sorry, a rather good year in 2024, I'm showing you 12 months again so you can see the 12 months clearly. So, globally, people who entered at the beginning of the year, at the end of the year, they really benefited with 21%. So, that means there will be profit-taking on the NASDAQ, on the macroeconomy in general, and we know very well that during periods of profit-taking at the end of the year. So, that means downward pressure, a decrease in the number of purchases, and much less buying pressure. So, for me, we are in this representation of having a fear about the macro, and it's real. Will we reach a recession or not in the macroeconomy? I think we will have a recessionary period in the macro, but it won't be tomorrow, it will certainly be at the end of 2026. We'll have the pleasure of discussing it together until then, but we are still very, very far from it. But so, that implies that we have to consider it at some point, and of course, that affects BTC. And for BTC, we add something extra, which is that we are at the end of the 4-year cycles. So, naturally, it becomes very complicated on this front. I'm showing you the CME, but by default, I always use this chart. There, okay. There. And where, globally, we had set ranges and the notion of the start of the bull run with, here, the end with the profit-taking, which is globally the cyclicity offered by the market. For those who unfortunately don't know, but will know very soon. The 4-year cycle is driven solely by BTC. The notion of a 4-year cycle comes only from BTC. Altcoins surf on the liquidity provided by BTC, but the 4-year cycle is Bitcoin only. Very important for what's to come, remember it, very, very important for the end of this masterclass, but it's Bitcoin only that drives this, due to the halving and an obligation to remunerate BTC miners. Naturally, the halving cuts the remuneration of the Bitcoin mining industry in half, and so, naturally, we have an obligation to have a valuation of the network, and there's a somewhat self-fulfilling aspect that comes into play. That's a reality. Now, when you remove this notion of a 4-year cycle, or at least that it's only for BTC, the reality is that we're entering a period where it's difficult to hold on, quite simply because we're in a moment where holding a position now is psychologically very difficult. It's really very difficult. If you've gone through one cycle, two cycles, three cycles, it's very, very difficult to continue holding a portfolio now because we're at the end of the 4-year period. And so, that means the psychological aspect is even more difficult. Now, I'm layering it on. You need to understand that I'm not saying we're in a bear market, I'm just stating the facts about the information we're finding, very simply, where we have a complicated macro situation with uncertainty, a debt problem, a problem with tariffs, a problem with general liquidity management, and on top of that, for BTC and crypto in general, we have the basis of crypto investment, which is the 4-year cycle, which is either ending or being called into question. Remember the "called into question" part, because in either case, it's complicated. So, unfortunately, psychologically, nothing is easy, and that's where it's very difficult, and the fear of thinking that the top has been reached is even more complicated. And I think the notion of simply asking the question, are we entering a bear market or not, is beside the point. We're really missing what's important. What's important now is to ask ourselves what are the levels we need to break to define if we are entering a bear market or not. And what would invalidate it? What would invalidate the fact that there is a bear market and that there is a change in dynamics? I think it's super important to understand that either we enter a bear market, or the 4-year cycle, and therefore the very cyclicity of crypto investment, is broken. That doesn't mean it's over overnight, but it just means we're starting with new rules. New rules equal new learning equal new risk management equal new investment typology equal new reflection. And that's super important. I'll try to answer it throughout this masterclass to give you the necessary tools to go further. Now, regarding the level we're at, I'll tell you again what we've said several times. And those who were there at those moments, you know very well what happened. It's simple: when we took the ATH here before the halving and we dropped here, we did this, globally, and even when we did August 5th, it was over. We had our cycle. The bear market is coming. Acceleration. Trump is elected. Even Trump coins. Tariffs. Boom. What happened here? That's it, we're entering a bear market. The top is passed. It's over. Okay. Re-acceleration. Top. We liquidate. And so, we're in the lower part. That doesn't mean we can't go lower, be careful. But in this case, we have a downward movement with a break in short-term structure, and so, naturally, the bear market returns. Except that, except that here, how to say that here we are not here, we are not there. It's that in this period, we were in 2024, we said we had time. Here, we were in March 2025, we had time. Now, if we respect the cyclicity, let's clean it up a bit. If we respect the cycle, it's hard to say we have time. So, at that point, what does that mean? It means we tell ourselves that this time it's different. It means we tell ourselves that it's an eternal cycle. Okay. In 2021, we said that too. Well seen what happened. So, at some point, just saying we're in a bear market or not isn't enough. And it's not just yes or no, it's about how I manage it and how I apply it on my end. That will be the most important point, because to be honest with you, the bear market will be validated when we break the structure. The structure is at $75,000-$74,000. That's low, that's super mega low. And if we can go for $86,000 to go back to an ATH. That doesn't mean that we will continue the cycle, that the cycle will be extended, that there will be another 4 years of cycle. No, it just means that perhaps the rules have changed a bit, and it's the same principle. The 4-year cycle always had particularities, and if this time, this particularity wasn't being 4 years, but modifying this type of cycle due to the arrival of ETFs. And I'll elaborate on that little by little, and you'll see that it makes sense. Before, just let me show you something. Here, we had a break in the RSI. Here, we had RSI. Here, we had RSI. Systematically, retracement, re-acceleration, retracement, re-acceleration, retracement, potentially re-acceleration. Now, do you want to be 100% exposed in this re-acceleration? You'll see that it's complicated. And just, I'm reading a comment from Neutron 07 who says, "You're talking about BTC, there are assets that are dying." I agree, but we're talking about BTC first before talking about the rest, because if you think that some altcoins are going to take off without BTC giving them the opportunity, you're mistaken. If you think that BTC and the rest will take off while we might have strong macroeconomic pressure, it's very unlikely. So, we start with the main thing, we start with that. Okay? What's most important? The macro. What's second most important? BTC. Okay. And then, we go down. Altcoins are at their lowest, they are the riskiest, and naturally depend on everything else. There is no diversification in crypto. Diversification in crypto doesn't exist. Globally, BTC decides, Ether decides, and the rest can appreciate or not. But generally, in the long term, it's BTC only that will decide. And so, we are forced to base ourselves on BTC and then on the altcoins. That's another story, that's another reflection. Currently, being on a 100% altcoin portfolio is very, very difficult. It's really very, very difficult. I even think it's borderline suicidal to be 100% altcoin. The downside, and we'll tackle that later in exposure management, but that means the probability of appreciation of an acceleration versus the probability of a crash and a loss, meaning if we crash and we enter a bear market on altcoins, it's -98%, excuse me, it's not 80%, it's -98% on a potential upside. Okay? -98% means that if you have $100,000 in altcoins, it means that at -98%, if you don't cap it and you don't sell, you're left with $2,000 at the end. Do you understand? That's just to show you clearly. So, we start with BTC, we are forced to start with BTC because BTC is one of the excessively important assets for understanding what's next. Now, I'm not saying we're entering a bear market. Again, we are very far from that idea, but we just understand that perhaps the cycle itself has evolved a bit, and you'll see that there are still good things among all of this. The first thing, which isn't a good thing but must be discussed, is that we have underperformance of BTC compared to the NASDAQ. We are returning to the resistance zone. It's imperative to hold. As long as we hold this level, it's positive. Okay? That's the first zone. If we break this level, well, it means we'll go there, and that means we'll have an underperformance of BTC and unfortunately of cryptos compared to everything that will happen in the macroeconomy. And so, it means that perhaps more time will be needed. The problem is that psychologically holding on for more time in this market will be very, very difficult, especially if you have a significant portion of altcoins. It will be very difficult. Second thing, this time, which is very positive, is the STH supply. Here, we are really on-chain. It's the short-term holder supply. That is to say, the representation of short-term holders on BTC. We see their increase. We see an increase. Now, just to respond to Daniel. If you think that -90% on altcoins, you can still do -90%. You have to understand that there's no, you can't go lower. That doesn't exist. If you look at cryptos in previous cycles that didn't perform in the next cycle, they dropped by -90%. Okay? So, you have to accept it and understand that when I say -98%, it means that from the current price, we can still do -90% on altcoins. That's the downside part, meaning that's the risk you're taking. And here, in this masterclass, I'm going to bore you with risk. I'm going to make you eat it so that you truly understand the real impact. Now, the short-term holder is a positive point. Positive point, it means that new entrants are entering crypto despite being underwater. Because when we look at the small blue line here, these small blue lines, we see that they are below. So, that means they continue to buy despite being underwater. That is, despite the fact that short-term buyers are in the negative. That's a very, very good sign. It means there's still demand, and that's something that resembles these phases of decline that we've experienced, where we had an increase in short-term holders. The only thing is that we're starting from very low because there was very strong fear in that period, also macro, before the re-acceleration. And so, we're starting to see buyers arriving in the short term again, but only on BTC. That's super important. Remember it. What I'm showing you is for BTC. You need to understand that when we look at BTC dominance, BTC dominance is starting again, it's consolidating. We don't have a very, very strong downward movement. And when we look at charts, I show them to you quite regularly regarding this, it will be Total 3 divided by BTC divided by, excuse me, Total, Total multiplied by 100, which gives you, in fact, the typology of altcoins and therefore the dominance of altcoins, which is the percentage that altcoins represent in the market. What do we see? Well, what about 2018, 2021, 2025? Okay. Well, I think this chart speaks for itself. It's the representation of all altcoins compared to the entire crypto market. We see that there's a general underperformance of all altcoins that are not BTC or Ether, and that this has been the case since 2018-2021, and even during the 2024 period, their weight decreases. However, that doesn't mean there can't be big winners. Be careful, this is about a generality. And these big winners also mean very targeted exposure and very targeted risk management. That's another discussion. If I come back to the on-chain data, which is important to me, it's still about these short-term holders because they are new entrants. What's happening on this front? Is there still fear or not? Are we in something euphoric or really in something that's more fear and stabilization? When we arrive at this small blue line, which represents the MVRV, which is the representation of the delta, and it tells us when it goes down to the lower part or the upper part. Upper part is a representation of euphoria. Lower part is a representation of fear. And when we reach the dotted line, it generally implies that we are not far from the bottom. However, you see it systematically, we have several attempts before reaching it, and that's perhaps a bit of what will happen here. So, that means we're entering a consolidation zone. That implies that we have something here that's rather positive for BTC. However, that doesn't mean it can happen tomorrow. What's happening now is that we've made a first attempt at it, and we can very well go back into it. And so, this aligns not with a bear market, but it aligns with a rest period before another acceleration afterwards. Now, whether this rest period will last long or not, we don't know. But what you need to understand is that the bear market is here, and we can very well retest $86,000 before moving on and having a longer window of opportunity with perhaps a cycle that will resemble this and that might not have a real finality, and that this cyclicity loses volatility, therefore loses interest, therefore loses momentum, and we'll see that a bit later, I think. I think it's important to understand that we have signs telling us that a real change in dynamics is happening. We see this change in dynamics through several actors, we see it through several things, we see it through the ETFs that are going through. That's a reality. I mean, that means that the very dynamic of the on-chain data we had before is evolving. The arrival of ETFs is transforming that. We see companies, in the last 30 days, 14 new companies entering and accumulating BTC. So, there's a movement happening on BTC, on Bitcoin primarily, around the rest. And again, the idea here is to see what the main dynamic is in relation to Bitcoin, and then altcoins, that's another discussion. But if BTC doesn't have any momentum, altcoins won't have any, no matter what. Okay? And I'm talking about a generality. So, that means we absolutely must be careful about this. It's a very important notion. There's BTC, and there are altcoins. Currently, altcoins represent the speculative part brought by the entire blockchain technology. Historically, that's always been the case. When we look at 2021, the projects that really stood out were projects that brought speculation around blockchain performance and therefore technology. The problem is that now the technology is being instantiated by BlackRock itself for RWR. So, the evolution of the tech is decreasing. So, a decrease in speculation, general underperformance. Now, there might be those who bring real utility and will perform. So, a handful of altcoins versus the rest, and therefore a total underperformance of all altcoins, and necessarily of some cryptos. And that's where it's very difficult. It also means that we have a market that is changing and evolving, because the 4-year cycle, even if historically it was rather simple to buy in a bear market and sell three and a half years later, it's going to be more complicated now, and even if that was the case for BTC and some altcoins in this cycle, I think it will be a bit more difficult afterwards. But here, I'm spoiling the rest a bit regarding all of this. The reality is that ETFs have changed a lot of things, whether it's in price control, volatility, interest, and knowledge of the Bitcoin world. The fact that it's an ETF means it can be bought by everyone, and the fact that we have companies buying BTC and offering it, like MicroStrategy, we'll come back to that later, well, it means something is changing, and even the fact that it's happening and evolving in this way shows us that something is changing. Does that mean there won't be a bear market? Absolutely not. However, will there be a different bear market? Yes. Will it be outside the 4-year period? Probably. Will it be structured differently? Yes. Can we even say that it will be differentiated between altcoins and BTC? Very likely too. And so, that means a layer of complexity is entering compared to what we knew historically, and we'll need to be able to adapt to that, especially in 2026. So, direction bear market or not? I think you've understood. For me, I don't think we're going to go into a bear market. At least, on BTC, I think on altcoins, it will continue to be complicated because there's no need for speculation, there's no interest in speculation. We see the underperformance clearly. There are a few altcoins that are quickly making their mark, and again, they rise, they live, they die. I mean, look at all the different pumps that have happened. They pump and they dump. Very sequentially. So, we're really in pure casino mode. We're no longer in the notion of altcoin season that we used to know. So, that means it's marketing, it's strong investments behind the scenes by the various companies to generate hype, to generate speculation. When we look at what happened with these ad-casters, we see it clearly, I mean, pushing a protocol so strongly in this way. Something has changed on that front. So, what do we do in this situation? I see all the questions, don't worry, I see them, I can't answer them right away. So, I'll have to answer them at the end, don't worry. So, what does that mean? It means we'll certainly have a consolidation phase, a new acceleration phase. Now, the complexity is how do I manage the probability that this time it's different and the probability that the 4-year cycle is present. I often repeat, you have to prepare to be wrong, and that's for a reason. It's that we can't be certain that it will happen this way no matter what. And that's an essential point in investing. We never go in with a single mindset, with a single theory. We price all theories, how do we manage that. And now, we're going to arrive at a notion that I talk about quite often. I even made a guide on basic risk management, and now we're going to talk about basic money management. And I think it's essential to have it, especially in crypto, and I think it's a foundation that many people lack in the crypto market, more than elsewhere, because the crypto market is accessible to everyone, and above all, we have an image that is a reality where, globally, the cycle was quite simple to understand. There were no other mechanisms, and so we had a rather monofocal vision, except that in 2025, we see that it has changed and that the dynamic has evolved, and we must necessarily use new tools to be able to do it. And so, I've been talking about it for some time now, the notion of money management, we'll come back to it. What is money management? Why have I been harping on about it for ages? It's 1, the notion of pricing risk, 2, factualization, 3, exposure management. I'll go back over the three points, they are super important, and I'll give you an example. And this, I want you to reflect on it too, on your end. Pricing risk is the notion of the risk you're taking. The risk you're taking is not what you think will happen. It's okay, if I'm wrong, what will happen? I told you earlier about -98%. If I'm wrong and I have a 100% altcoin portfolio and there's no altcoin season and we go into a bear market, what's my risk? It's -98% on my bag. Price it now, okay? That doesn't mean you'll keep your bag until the end, I hope not. And so, the question you should ask yourself is, is the risk versus the effective gain good or not? Is it that behind it I'm risking -90% of my bag on my bag to make, for example,
x 2 x 3 x 4 x 5? Is the risk-reward ratio interesting or not? Is it favorable? What are the favorable elements? Is the end of a year, is the end of a 4-year cycle favorable? At that point, how can I limit this risk? We'll come back to that a bit later. Okay? Limiting risk generally involves managing exposure. So we understand the risk and, above all, we don't put blinders on. We look at the risk. We don't tell ourselves that my bias will necessarily be the one. Anyway, in any case, it can only be like this. The market does its own thing. It must imperatively be like this. The market does what it wants systematically, and therefore, you must always prepare to be wrong. This means having a vision here that the investment thesis we have is invalidated. And so, what does that concretely mean for your portfolio? And what are the methodologies you use to manage this? The methodology can be, for example, a stop-loss, saying that if a crypto reaches -20% or -30%, I cut this position and I'll see later if we rebound. Is it at that moment, in a confirmation cycle, if the market is starting to rebound, that my indicators tell me it's okay, that I re-expose myself, or simply that we arrive much lower to reload and therefore buy back with a lower risk? And for that, I'm going to give you a little exercise, and I think it will be super nice. Tac tac. Uh, what will we take? We'll take this one. We'll stick with this one. I think it will be super important from this perspective. So, please prepare yourselves in the chat to answer me. What do you think is riskier? Attempting a purchase in these zones or attempting a purchase in these zones? Here, I remind you that we have just experienced a correction, that we are in fear. Oh dear, the bear market is over, blah blah blah blah blah. We have just fallen by 30%. We are arriving at a major support, and globally, we see that things are improving, particularly on the NASDAQ. Here, we have just accelerated again, we have just made a top on this side. Everyone is saying that's it, let's go. The risk lies, attention, drumroll. The risk lies here, lies here, lies in FOMO, lies at the moment of acceleration. So, if you ever find yourself at -x%, that depends on people, okay? Some people have a very low risk tolerance, others are ready to take a hit. But the reality is that at a certain point, when we see that we are entering a stabilization phase, it can be interesting to reduce your exposure. Attention, I spoke of exposure, remember exposure well. We'll come back to it in a few moments. We reduce our exposure in this part and we wait. We are wrong, and it continues. Well, that's great. We are right. We sink, everyone is freaking out, and that's where, globally, we increase our exposure. And if I increase my exposure here, I'll go further. Z, I'll clean up. What is the cost of being wrong here? The cost of being wrong here, the invalidation is to break here. Okay? So that means that the invalidation of this zone is at -28%. If I buy back, let's say here, the invalidation of that will be the same structure, -12%. So here, globally, I'm trading a risk of -28 versus a risk of -12. And that also means that my risk management will be much better, and my exposure will be less. On the other hand, it means learning patience, learning to be wrong, meaning that you can mess up and simply accept the fact of a drop. For example, here, let's say we can consider that we will go to 86, reduce exposure here, and at the moment we sell, it creates a huge wick and we go to 150. Okay, that's also part of the risk. That's part of what doesn't go as planned and how I manage it. And I accept the consequences of the choices I make to be able to price it in. It's the same principle when you pay for insurance; it's not because you hope to get sick, it's just to cover the fact that you might get sick. Okay? It's really that. It's the same principle. You have insurance on your house; it's not because you want the house to burn down. It's not for that reason. It's the same principle. And so, we will come back to the notion of factualization. Factualize everything you do. This means that money management is written down, money management is noted. Factualization is not "if it goes down, it will be complicated." No, it will be based on this. This is a very volatile token; at a certain point, I cut it. What are the reloading zones? I note it, I apply it, and ideally, I know it's boring, and it's a reality, keep a small journal where you note the actions you've taken, why, and what strategy you have in mind when you buy, when you sell, and then you apply it and reread it. That's great. Personally, that's something that helped me a lot to progress, especially when I was trading Forex. So that goes back a bit. That was about 10 years ago, almost. Yes, more than 10 years ago, 13 years ago. So, it helped me a lot because we tend to forget, and this allows us to remember the mindset we had and especially to return to the factual, and money management must be factual. It must not be, excuse me, it must not be emotional. Super important. Next, exposure management. Exposure management, you've certainly heard me talk about it quite often. What is exposure management? It's the representation of your portfolio relative to the market. Hop, let's bring out the little drawings. I know you like them. Hop, exposure. See this as a bag. Okay? It's the representation of your portfolio. Hop, hop, hop. Here you have BTC, you have the Alts, and you have the Stablecoins. And yes, stablecoins are cryptocurrencies. What is the role of each? Okay, this is the risk part, the Alts part, risk, volatility. Generally, when you take risks, it's for performance. Okay. What about BTC? It's generally something we tend to hold long-term, and you'll see there are other benefits. It's an edge against monetary inflation, it's digital gold, it's a representation of freedom that we can't seize, especially in Europe and France, given where we're heading. A bit complicated, but it's something that allows us to have that. This is very volatile. This is volatile, but less so than the basic Alts. And then we have the Stablecoins. What are Stablecoins? An edge against what? Volatility. Too many people are 100% exposed to the market, which is stupid, an aberration. This means you absolutely must have a portion of stablecoins, a portion of stablecoins no matter what. Even when you're in an acceleration phase, you have a portion of stablecoins because you take positions gradually, because you reduce the exposure of your portfolio, you reduce exposure to volatility. Concrete example, someone who is, let's not say 100%, let's say 100% BTC, okay? Who is 100% BTC versus someone who is 50% BTC and 50% Alts. What's the difference? BTC drops by -50%. They have 100,000, okay, they have 100k, they lose 50k. 50/50, they lose 25k, and they have the possibility to buy BTC afterwards. The exposure and the portion of stablecoins you have offer you resilience to the drop, thus clarity, clarity of mind and decision-making, and funding to manage this. However, it requires emotional control. If you constantly FOMO, as soon as there's a small rebound and you're not able to wait, it will be very difficult. And money management is patience, it's exposure management, and it's not always 1 or 0. I think some people hear this very, very, very often. It's not 1 or 0; it's a nuance between the two. So managing this nuance between being 100% exposed and 0% exposed. The 1 or 0 is putting a monumental psychological anvil on yourself. 1 means that as soon as there's a drop, you get completely wiped out. Psychologically, you might not be able to sleep. And I don't want to see people saying, "But anyway, I can hold on because I know it will go back up." That doesn't exist. I know it will go back up. We are not fortune tellers. We never know if it will go back up, and we never know how it will go back up, and if we will be able to do anything psychologically after a -60% drop in our portfolio. If we are able to hold on during an acceleration or rebound phase. And this is something that is systematically underestimated because, are you able to accept volatility? Yes, but anyway, it will go up. "I can handle -60% to make x5." I've heard that I don't know how many times. So these are things that don't exist. It's: are you able to accept -60% total? You sell, you capitulate, and you leave with -60%. If yes, okay. If not, it's complicated. So, at that point, you find your balance between 1 and 0. Similarly, 0 is difficult. And exiting the market, exiting the market is extremely complicated. It's even almost unmanageable. Being out of the market means, globally, not having a foot in it anymore. Telling yourself that every time there's a green candle, "Ah, damn, I should be in it, I've lost money," when that's false. It's just that you might not have made money on the green candle, but ultimately, you might have made money, you took profits. And so that means re-entering the market at the wrong times, at the times we talked about, necessarily. Hop! And then, when there's a drop, it's even more complicated because you made profits, you re-entered, you lose the profits you made, you tell yourself you're a big idiot, and you capitulate here, or you wait to capitulate even lower. And these are systematic errors. Here, I'm not trying to throw stones at you or to be condescending. I'm just being factual to try to give you examples of people I see systematically and the errors that result from it and the implications it can have. So money management is pricing the scenario you haven't anticipated. What does it imply for your portfolio? Are you okay with that? What actions will you take if we go in the opposite direction of what you want? Factualize everything. Leave emotions out. Don't fall into confirmation bias. Have a minimum of factualization about who you are. Are you an emotional person or not? There's no shame in that. You need to know yourself. You need to know how you react in these situations and, above all, not to fool yourself. And then you manage your exposure. It's not "I buy everything, I sell everything"; it's systematically how I manage my exposure to the market. Do I have a significant portion of stablecoins? Do I have a significant portion of BTC? Am I highly exposed to market volatility? If there's a drop, what will my portfolio do? -60%, -70%, -80%? Am I ready to accept that? Do I hold on? Do I then factualize by saying I price the risk and therefore at -20%, I cut this and that because I know it will hurt? And that's super important. And I see a question here: what percentage of each part of the portfolio? It depends on the person. I have a rather small portion of altcoins, I have a significant portion of BTC. I have a much smaller portion of Ether, and I have a very significant portion of stablecoins. When something goes wrong and my stablecoin portion is depleted for one reason or another, for example, I made an investment, the investment tanks, there's a flash crash on it. My stablecoin portion, therefore, I have an actual loss, which means I have to readjust my stablecoin portion, and I do it instantly. I don't question it. It's part of my money management. I am factual about what I do, and that's what allows me to be good in the long run. Don't forget, investment is ultimately long-term. Too many people are in a hurry, and that's also the problem. Even if in crypto, long-term can be 3-4 years, people are there to say, "I'm having a one-night stand and leaving a week later." Well, the problem is that they leave a week later, they're wiped out or stuck, and therefore remain in the cycle against their will with something that isn't readjusted because there's no bad management and therefore no risk management, and it's very, very difficult. That's bad management. It's 7:45 PM, we're doing pretty well because this is just the beginning. I'm sorry, I'm very talkative when it's like this, but I just wanted to lay the groundwork because I think this is a really super important point, and it's applicable whether you're trading, investing, in DeFi, absolutely everywhere. Money management is how you expose yourself, even in traditional investment, okay? It's the same way to manage your exposure, manage your cash portion. Don't forget that exposure and cash portion are essential in managing your portfolio and managing your volatility. If there's an opportunity and you're broke, it's simple: you suffer, you watch. That's it. And similarly, an opportunity isn't when it drops by 2%. An opportunity is: I am patient, I am capable of doing it, and that's even more difficult. And precisely, I'm going to give you an example, an example that's quite fun because we're going to go even further. So you've seen, I've talked a lot about BTC, but there's a reason for that, because the example I'm going to give you will be something super important. Don't worry, I see all the questions, I'll come back to them. I see that many people are still 100% in Alts. So we'll talk about that at the end. But first, I really want to talk a lot about BTC for a simple reason: the example I'm going to give you is mainly based on BTC, and I think it's super important because it opens the mind. We're going to look at this chart; for those who have seen me do it before, I think you know it. This is the representation of the growth and losses, especially of BTC over time. If I buy today, I have a 46%, almost 47% chance of being at a loss tomorrow, 44% in a week, 42% in a month, 36% in a quarter, 23% in a year. Okay? And what happens in 3 years? 0.07%. 0.07%. This means I have a 99.3% chance of being positive. If I buy today, even at a peak, I will be positive in 3 years. What does this mean? It means we stop thinking very short-term; we think long-term. This is a risk pricing. This is something we need to instill. Don't always think short-term. Part of your money management strategy can be short-term, but at that point, manage it short-term with short-term risks. For the long term, don't play with altcoins, don't play with anything other than BTC, especially in cryptocurrency. Understand this well, okay? It's super important. And why Bitcoin? Because the reality is that everything revolves around Bitcoin right now. ETFs, I mean, ETFs have broken all records. BlackRock's ETF has broken all profitability records. It even surpasses that of the S&P 500, which is over 25 years old and represents the S&P 500. No, the BTC ETF is more profitable. It's considered by Deutsche Bank as digital gold of 2021. Deutsche Bank, we have a limited supply, we have demand and ETFs that are just insane. We see it clearly here compared to what we produce. So here, we have to realize that we produce so little compared to the actual purchases. Yes, there are times when there are drops, okay, but there are times when the curve is only accelerating. If we zoom out a bit from this curve, and by the way, it's very interesting to look at it through ETFs. Let's take this one. Hop, hang on. Hop, when we look at this, yes, there are rebounds, there are stabilization periods, but ultimately, it pushes, it pushes hard. So that means there is real demand that is continuous, that is present, and that's a reality. That's why BTC must be part of your thinking at some point. It's not a short-term consideration; it's a long-term consideration. And that's super important, and it's the mistake most people make. I will come back to the entire Altcoin part, don't worry, at the end. But I just have to talk about this because it's the systematic point I see of people who are not exposed to BTC who say, "I'll go through the altcoins, and then once the bear market is over, with the profits I've made on the altcoins, I'll buy BTC." Unfortunately, that's not how you manage your risk. It means you only see one vision; you don't see the rest. And that cost a lot in this cycle. And this cycle shows us through the underperformance of altcoins in general, and it also shows us through the fact that some projects are collapsing and disappearing a few weeks later, that there is a lot of manipulation on Alts because there is very little demand, and the wave is mainly on BTC, and it's a wave that might be a bit longer-term. And for that, I'm going to talk about MicroStrategy. I have to, but I'm going to give you some super important stats. Hang on, because this is something I think few people have truly understood. MicroStrategy, launched by Michael Saylor, is called Strategy. By the way, I made a video about Michael Saylor on the Cryptolase channel, a Sunday video with editing and everything. If you haven't seen it, I really encourage you to watch it to understand the character, because the guy is really interesting to understand his psychology. But MicroStrategy has a mechanism behind it, which is long-term and which relies on incredible money management. Here, we consider MicroStrategy as just a proxy, meaning a representation of investment. Instead of buying BTC, we buy MicroStrategy, and therefore, it's better to buy BTC. However, the two curves you see, the blue curve is BTC's realized volatility over 30 days, and the orange curve is MicroStrategy. What difference do you see? We see a significant gap. Volatility on MicroStrategy is almost 40% higher than that of BTC. So that means there's even more interest from actors who invest, who act, who short, who buy options, who sell options, who expose themselves to the market and want volatility because it's through volatility that traders and hedge funds make their money. It goes to MicroStrategy, and volatility is not on BTC. We have an asset that is even more volatile than BTC but based on BTC. And yet, and yet, we have a company here that is indebted, we agree, but has 12% loan-to-value. Now, for those who do DeFi, I think you know very well what LTV means. It means that MicroStrategy only has 12% of its global valuation considered as debt. So that implies that it only represents a very small amount, $8.2 billion in debt out of 72% NAV in BTC valuation of Bitcoin. So that means that even if BTC is divided by 10, they will be roughly profitable. It's a representation of money management based on BTC and a desire to build something around BTC. And this impacts everything I've told you before. It impacts the representation that Wall Street, that ETFs, that institutional investors, that all these people are adopting blockchain technology, but also starting to have access to volatility indices, to ways to be exposed to crypto, via BTC through MicroStrategy. And MicroStrategy has also implemented additional tools to do so. It has implemented STRC, STRD, STRF, STRK, these are the small orange dots you see there. This is the representation of the return, the yield here over the duration of the product's representation. And we see clearly that we are superior to everything, much superior to US Treasury bonds, which are here. So that means we have products based on BTC that generate a return because, quite simply, they see that over 3 years, there is almost no chance of losing money. And this is something very important that shows the strength of BTC here, and we don't have a liquidation risk on MicroStrategy because to reach a liquidation risk, it implies that BTC reaches levels where there is no more bear market. So that means a dead market. And so here, we have the implementation of a truly institutional tool for institutions to be exposed to BTC, among other things. And this is boosted by everything I've shown you with hop, the ETFs, that this is not displayed, pim, the ETFs. Okay, the equity injection, but it's also boosted by the number of companies buying crypto, mainly exposed to BTC, and that's very, very strong. This means there is truly a dynamic underway, and therefore, perhaps a real structural change. So that doesn't mean the end of the 4-year cycle. It means there's an evolution. And an evolution doesn't mean the end, and it's super important, I think, to understand the difference. It just means that there might be new rules, that these rules are not yet established, that they might evolve over time, and we will have to learn to manage them. Hence the importance of money management, hence the importance of having active management, hence the importance of understanding how to manage the different phases going forward. I'll take a short break to regain some voice because otherwise I'll finish and you'll have nothing. So, what's interesting is why it works. I've just explained how, but why does it work? Why are people interested in being exposed to BTC through ETFs or through MicroStrategy? And why should you yourself? For me, there are three pillars. 1. Valuation, meaning that Bitcoin is an asset, even if we see a decrease in volatility, which is a reality, the asset is becoming less and less volatile and is pushing less and less. But that doesn't prevent it from performing very strongly continuously. I showed you BTC versus Nasdaq. You might say, "Yes, well, the valuation says that, but when you look, there's still a red candle and all that." Okay. I'm on weekly. Now, if I go back and set it to monthly and zoom out, what do we see? I'd say we have something that's really, really, really good. So here we are truly in something very, very bullish. So that means that in the long term, we are in something that is globally, continually outperforming the NASDAQ, and people have seen that. Second thing, the hedge. It's a term you might not have heard, but it's called monetary hedging strategy. This means that institutions are currently hedging against the probability of a decrease in the valuation of fiat currencies through inflation, through debt defaults, through bond issues. People are hedging and implementing hedging strategies, and BTC is one of the assets among others. We saw gold, we saw the explosion of gold again. And so here, people are using MicroStrategy, using BTC, using the rest to do so. This is a very important point, and you'll see there are many methods to do it and many ways to manage it. Where I want to lead you is to make you understand that simply buying crypto, waiting, and it appreciating no longer works, and certainly won't work anymore. And that means you have to manage it differently. And that the institutions that are on BTC because BTC is the only one truly for the long term, are aiming for the long term. If they buy, it's for 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 10 years. It's rarely for the short term. And it's super important to understand that because it means that people who are buying now are buying for potentially 10 years from now. And what's interesting in all this is that we can do it ourselves. I think you know that. A MicroStrategy-like approach can be done, but first, you need to understand what's happening behind it. You really need to understand what's happening behind it, and for that, you need to understand the typology, the composition of the market. On one hand, we have investors, where I buy ideally, where I enter, and when I enter, I take very few actions. I am totally dependent on the market's direction because when I buy to sell, I need to be able to buy, okay? I'm not a trader; I'm an investor. The timeframe is generally rather long. It's complicated in crypto because we've seen that the more I buy and the more I want to sell short-term, the less probability I have of succeeding. It requires very little knowledge in the end because it's just buying, selling, and we have a form of knowledge where we say that just buying, selling, and everything will go up. Which has always been more or less the case in other cycles, not today, and so it's naturally a bit more complicated now, and investor also often means 100% exposed with not necessarily investment knowledge and especially no cash flow. And cash flow is important because it allows you to seize opportunities when you don't have them. We'll see the trader typology next. You'll see yourselves. Anyway, we have investors, traders, and DeFi guys. CL, the person in DeFi. You can tell me in the chat which one you are, and I think you'll see yourselves. And if you're multiple, tell me. It's interesting because that's where I want to lead you step by step. The trader, they depend on volatility. If it doesn't move, they do nothing. Psychologically difficult because trading isn't learned overnight. It takes a long time to become profitable. Holding long-term and trading is pure statistics. So you need an iron psychology when you're in statistical anomalies, and especially trading generates cash flow. There are several types of trading. Here, the goal isn't to talk about trading at all, but just to tell you that these are the elements of a trader, and there's trading for every situation. It's short-term, medium-term, long-term trading, swing trading, there are many things. Trading is broadly speaking, and there's a lot to cover. Then, we have DeFi. It's decentralized finance, which requires knowledge to understand the mechanisms behind it, to be able to assess risk management, to understand what you're doing, and to understand which protocols you're investing in, excuse me, where you're depositing your funds, generating cash flow, and giving a complete market view. That's great. DeFi is something that allows you to touch the protocols and be ahead of everyone on many, many things. The goal isn't to say, "Ah, well, I just want to be an investor, just a trader, I just want to do DeFi." Each branch has something important, and I sincerely think you need to be a bit of everything. Don't lock yourself into things and say, "Anyway, I don't have time." I think that right now, just buying and waiting for it to go up to sell is very difficult. Either you are an investor and you invest in BTC for 10 years, that's one thing. But if you invest in crypto in general, you can't just be an investor. You have to be a bit of everything. And I think this vision needs to become widespread. We need to grow as investors. We need to use everyone's tools. We need to use money management, for example, from investing, meaning being able to manage your exposure across your entire portfolio. Being able to determine when to reduce your exposure and increase it again. For that, it implies that you need risk management. And where do we learn this risk management? We learn it from trading, similarly, determining zones of interest, that will be technical analysis, that will also be part of trading. Using DeFi cash flow to continue investing and seize good opportunities while using the money management we've put in place in investing. That's what we mean by being an investor, and I think that's what's generally missing for people in the market right now: having an investment thesis, not having risk management, not having money management, and having a vision saying, "I only do this," while the market is evolving. And this evolution is not necessarily negative. This evolution is just that we have new players entering with new rules, quite simply. And so that means we have to price this evolution while also pricing the end of the 4-year cycle. And that requires very strong money management, and it requires growing as an investor, and that's super important. So, I'm going to give you an example that combines a bit of everything. An example that is a representation and also a simple example to do. However, to show it to you, I'll probably have to lay the groundwork. For investment, I think you all know how to buy and sell. I'm not too worried about that. Money management, I talked about that earlier. I'm not too worried about that either. Trading, technical analysis, you watch my daily videos, there are good basics for that. From this perspective, even if trading, I'm talking
From the listing, I'm not talking about trading. Trading requires a lot of time and a lot of training to be profitable and to understand that it's something that is managed differently. But I will give you already, in fact, a system that works using the three. However, I am obliged to explain three things. Three things that are linked to DeFi because I know that some people are not precisely in DeFi, in decentralized finance, and I absolutely must explain it to you. The first thing will be the tools of the person who does decentralized finance. It will be three axes. In this strategy, there are three axes. One, the act of providing liquidity, what is called liquidity providing. We will have lending, don't worry, I will come back to it. And borrowing, globally, providing liquidity, borrowing, and depositing. Okay? These are truly the three levers of the strategy that I explained to you earlier with precisely all the management that is behind it.
And so, what is liquidity providing? To put it very simply, it's when you have one crypto, you have a second one, you put them together in what is called a liquidity pool. I think you have all seen the Uniswap token that has taken off in recent days, it's the token of Uniswap. Uniswap is the biggest protocol that provides liquidity, and you will, for example, deposit a liquidity pool on Uniswap. People will use the capital that you have put in to make their own exchanges. It's the same principle. If you want to buy an apple, there must be someone who sells you the apple, okay? It's the counterpart to every purchase and every sale. If you sell your BTC, it's because there is indeed someone behind it to buy it. Okay? It's the same principle, except it's not really someone, it's someone who has made available either an order in the order book or a liquidity pool to be able to do it. And this is truly valid in decentralized finance, and it's something that is very powerful. And so, on this, we recover yields and transaction fees systematically. These are yields that are quite substantial, exceeding 30-40% per year on it. There you go, without necessarily taking much risk.
Next, lending. Lending, I think you all know. Aave, likewise, the little purple token Alcoin, which has performed rather well with a large buyback, which has an incredible platform, which is the largest, which possesses the largest TVL, total value locked, the money locked in the protocol, so something that is truly solid. And we can deposit, for example, I don't know, a BTC to go and borrow a little USDC with it. Okay, borrowing. Borrowing is the same. Borrowing is the act of being able to go and get, for example, USDC. I deposit $100,000 of BTC, one BTC at $100,000. I can borrow a little USDC with it. We are careful, obviously, not to borrow too much, the notion of liquidation. You saw it well, even MicroStrategy is in a sector of 12%. So on BTC, we can go a little higher. It's not a problem because they have a lot of volatility, they have debt at a specific time, so that's something else. But the reality is that we can afford to go a little higher, around 25-30% for BTC.
But we have, so if I summarize, three things: liquidity, we provide liquidity, we recover fees, we use our capital to borrow, and that allows us to implement a strategy, for example, on BTC, to become our own mini MicroStrategy over a slightly longer timeframe. And this is quite simple, globally. You have your capital, you deposit your capital, you borrow, for example, you have one BTC, you borrow 25-30% of that BTC on Aave, and with that, you will provide liquidity on DeFi protocols, so mainly Uniswap. You will recover a yield between 25 and 30% per year on average. You will buy back BTC with it, and you will redeposit it on Aave and re-borrow. You will create a large buying loop. If I explain with a small drawing to make it even simpler, I have one BTC worth 100k. I put it on Aave. Then, once it's on Aave, I will borrow, let's say 30%. So that means I get back, hop, 30k. With these 30k, I make it work at 30%, let's say. Okay, I buy back BTC with it. I put this BTC back here, which systematically increases my spot portfolio. So my investor part, I manage my risk with my LTV. I do DeFi to generate yield. Investor, I buy back BTC, and so on. I keep the loop going. Those who want to optimize can optimize instead of buying immediately, they keep it in stablecoins here. And when it drops to a potential buying zone, I buy BTC at a better price. I buy back the BTC, I redeposit it directly. This will allow me to borrow and keep the loop going. This is something that allows me to accumulate BTC while generating yield and while allowing me to ride the wave of acceleration. Bullish, even when we have pullbacks, even when we have a bear market, this is something that holds up.
So why do I know this? Because I implemented this myself during the bear market of 2022-2023, so throughout the re-acceleration phase, and that's why I'm talking about it. The other thing is that if we take the worst-case scenario from 2021, okay? Worst-case scenario, I buy $10,000 worth of BTC in November 2021. Stay with me. $10,000 worth of BTC in November 2021 is at the price of 0.1453 BTC. The $10,000 now is $17,000. Okay. On this, it's the rule of the little graph that I showed you. Do you remember this little graph? This one I don't have, or it's far away. I didn't think it was that far. Well, it doesn't matter. We'll go back to this little graph. Naturally, we've passed 3 years. So here, I'm in the positive. I go from $10,000 to $17,000, that's great. Except that what I presented to you, well, it's 9 times better than that. 9 times better than just doing this part. Because with the strategy and the BTC holdings, we continue to have yield on the capital we have, we continue to buy BTC, and so on. In the downward phase, in the upward phase, in the downward phase, in the upward phase, we continue to increase the number of BTC we own. On this, you own 1.27 BTC instead of 14.53. That's $157,000, or $156,000 instead of $17,000. Here is the difference between someone who uses all the tools at their disposal, who has money management, who has a slightly longer-term vision, who uses DeFi, technical analysis, trading, and portfolio management. The difference is 9 times greater. It's just to explain to you how impactful this can be. And here, I'm just talking about a strategy on BTC. I'm just talking about a concept on BTC, and there are many small derivatives that we can have. There are many small things that we can have in addition. This is a strategy that is simple, that is effective. We transform ourselves into a micro-strategy, and then with your fees, you can very well recover them for yourself. You can very well use USDC to immediately buy BTC, to buy ETH, to wait for key retracement zones at 30, 40, 50, 60% for BTC. If you are afraid, for example, of the bear market, you can repay part of your loan with it. There are many ways to manage it, and it's worth knowing that we are entering a world where BTC will certainly become collateral for loans, including Lombard loans, and perhaps even, why not, real estate loans, as we have seen and as we are seeing now. It will take time, it won't happen tomorrow, but hence the interest in starting to accumulate it. And this is an example, once again, on BTC. It's something that is feasible everywhere. Why BTC? Because simply, we are in this approach. That is to say, over 3 years, I have a 99.3% chance, regardless of when I buy, of being profitable. And MicroStrategy understood this, institutions understood this, companies that bought BTC understood this. Beyond the volatility it can generate, beyond the interest it can generate, the medium-term, long-term interest is very, very strong, and we can go even further in all of this. And that's what's really important. So, regardless of whether we are in a bear market or not, regardless of whether it's complicated, regardless of how we manage it, the reality is that this can be applied with any type of capital, it can be applied with any type of structuring. The important thing is just to understand the psychological mechanism behind it. However, it requires money management, it requires understanding, it requires a bit of knowledge about everything, and that's also the beauty of it. It's that we become interested in everything, we feed on everything, and we can go even further. Yes, we can go even further. And that's also what's beautiful, is that here, if we project ourselves into an institutional cycle, if we project ourselves into an institutional cycle, what is concretely an institutional cycle? We'll take BTC monthly. Perfect. Super. We're on Binance. Hop, we'll take this one. Tac. We'll hop, let's clear it up a bit. I'll just remove this to be at ease and for us to be relaxed. Okay. What's interesting to see is that even here, what I'm presenting, even in a possibility of a bear market and a restart, it works, and we are nine times more performant.
Okay, but then what happens in an institutional cycle? In a cycle where globally we will certainly have a timeframe with something that will do this, retrace, do this, and so on. Imagine the performance that it takes in an institutional cycle, and I'm not making this up. If we look at the top here to the top there, we see that we are at about 280 days. Okay. If we look at the top here to the top there, 238. If we look at the top here, 280, hop, excuse me, 287 days. So we have a form of rhythm that is emerging, and it's a rhythm that we find a lot in traditional finance. That's why I've talked a lot about crypto, about macro as well, from that perspective, because there's a rhythm to have, there's knowledge to have from that perspective. And then, once we've understood this rhythm, once we've understood all the elements we need to learn, well, we are capable of applying this type of structuring. And this is valid even for our friends who are 100%. I'll come back to it at the very end in the Q&A. I saw some questions that will allow me to answer very broadly about altcoins. I'll come back to it, and it will be very important. If you've understood this, well, I'm happy because it means I've succeeded globally in explaining the important point for success in 2026. Because yes, for me, this is what it means to succeed at the end of the year, it's understanding this part, it's understanding how we are capable of managing through this money management the end of the 4-year cycle, in any case, the possibility of this end of cycle without necessarily cutting ourselves off completely from the arrival of an institutional cycle that will perhaps take longer with new rules, with a new way of operating, and that we must absolutely play both until we have a new rule in 2026 to then benefit from it, whether in a bear market or in an acceleration phase of bullishness or institutionalism. And this is absolutely valid for all BTC, it works very, very well. There are other considerations to have on other things. BTC works because we simply have something that is profitable over 3 years. So, whatever happens, when you have a strategy that holds up, it works. And when you have a slightly longer timeframe than just being intraday, it also works. After that, you can be a very good trader, you can do many things. Here, I've given you an example, but you can very well trade parts to create cash flow, to integrate into a portfolio management. There are many ways to operate. Here, I just wanted something that is very visual, very simple to understand, and that truly resembles something you have already known, already seen, and that already works.
Does that appeal to you? Have you already thought about it? Have you already seen it? Does it speak to you? Tell me in the chat. It's important because it's something that changes a lot of things. And precisely, if that's the case, it will be great because globally it's not complicated. Now, what do you need to do to implement it? Because you have to do it. Quite simply, to start, do your money management, manage your exposure. That's the basis. Work on your investor part. Then, improve your understanding of technical analysis. Have risk management, and then get interested in decentralized finance. Don't go into risk. Do something simple, effective, something that limits the impact. Stick to clear assets, mainly BTC. Go step by step. Like everything, there are a certain number of risks that must be known, and the more we advance, the more we understand, the more we become interested, the more we understand the risks involved, and the more we are able to manage them. And this is also very important for the future. This is if you want to be alone. So, alone, it's possible, we agree, but together it's much, much better. And it's really important to understand this. It's together being able to understand what's happening. It's being able to learn from each other. It's being able to access the mistakes of others to evolve much faster and to apply directly. Especially when we are at the end of the year, especially when we are obliged to ask ourselves the right questions in money management. Where we are obliged to ask ourselves the right questions about preparing for 2026. Should I cut? Should I not cut? Is the percentage of exposure I have coherent or not? Am I able to apply it? Do I have the necessary capital to manage my portfolio and also potentially do decentralized finance? What I'm proposing to you today. That is to say, it's been almost a year since I launched my coaching, even more than a year, almost a year and a half to help the most motivated investors, whether in centralized finance, in trading, or in pure investment. The goal is to build a strategy, money management, personalized follow-up, and to be able to systematically apply the most important thing, which is to move forward. If you want to move forward alone, no problem, many have done it. If you want to accelerate, if you want to go fast, it's simple, I have a candidacy call to offer you. You will reach, simply, Cécile, Karine, Ludo, or Lucas on the phone. They are members of my team, they are all investors, they have all done decentralized finance, and therefore, they will be able to answer your questions. And here, it's not for everyone because simply it doesn't work for everyone. So we will systematically see if we can accompany you or not. And it's through the Rift ecosystem that I have built that we will be able to accompany you. This ecosystem will be training, well, trading and investment training, a community, group coaching, personalized coaching. If you want to make an appointment, it's simple, you just need to click on the link or scan the little QR code. And this has helped many investors in very difficult periods like now, whether it's structure, a method, real serenity to be able to manage periods that are very difficult, and it's complicated to have clarity, like Mélodie, who explains the pedagogy, the kindness, and she never feels overwhelmed. It's a clear method, concrete benchmarks to help. This is also the case for Vincent. It will be Mathieu, who was followed, coached, challenged to gain rigor and discipline. Something that many investors lack. Understanding money management, Sabrina, a clear and motivating framework. She is not alone, she is intelligently accompanied, and there are many others. I'll let you look directly on Trpalos if you are interested. Don't forget to make an appointment to join us, these little QR codes.
And now, we move on to questions because many of you have asked me a lot of questions. I haven't had time to answer everything. There are a few that I have answered, they were included in this. And now, I will come back to them. We will also talk about altcoins. So don't hesitate during this time to make appointments. The little QR code, don't wait. The end of the cycle is coming, and in any case, whether it's real or not, you have to price it, you have to manage it, you have to prepare for 2026, and that doesn't happen once it's over. And it doesn't happen once it's too late, simply. So take action, it's important, and in any case, it's an appointment where you will be able to discuss, exchange, see if your profile is interesting or not, if we can help you or not, and in any case, you will be able to talk about your strategy, you will be able to talk about your problems, and I can assure you that in crypto, this is already very, very rare, and that you are in a framework of real serenity. And you will see, it's really exciting. So you will talk to people who are great on the phone. So make an appointment, it's in the comments, in the description, and let's go.
So, yes, I'll have to go back up. Hop. RM, in your opinion, has the market peak passed or not? I think the market peak has not passed. In any case, on BTC, on alts, I think it will be much more complicated. The market peak for me can still have an acceleration in 2026, which would globally explain a return and validate for us the implementation of an institutional cycle with a peak, a new ATH, which would therefore be past February 2026, definitely not in January, but really if we have it in the first quarter, end of the first quarter, beginning of the second, this would validate for me a 250-day cycle and therefore something that would be very rhythmic, so a validation of BTC as an institutional cycle, and this would be really very strong in the long term.
Question: Is it worth it to leave spot for now in this cycle, screwed up because of alts, having to redo long-term? What do you think? Listen, Matched, I think you can do both. Again, it's all a question of structuring. You can very well have a structure around BTC and stablecoins while generating yield with it and then accumulating in targeted periods, well, in targeted zones and periods of BTC and building a BTC exposure. And then you'll see if we have an acceleration phase with cash, you can very well react in the short term with risk management like trading. So it's short-term risk management with, for example, a desire to say, well, I'm entering with, I don't know, 20k, for example, I'm entering with 20, I allow myself to lose 5k in it, so that's -25%, and on the other hand, I'm aiming for 1x2. That is to say, you lose 5k potentially to go and get 40k. And so at that point, it's true that you'll have a very positive RR, but that's again money management and slightly more advanced risk management. And that's also what we explain precisely in Rist, and we accompany precisely on this.
HH Alexandre, the last rise was in two stages. Would this be a momentum of exhaustion? Would it be a momentum exhaustion? Yes, a momentum exhaustion because we are obliged to price the end of the cycle. That's simply it. That is to say, here, we have entities that are selling, we know it, there are OGs who are moving to ETFs, in reality too. We have a decrease at the end of the year, a complicated macro, a complicated certificate, an end of cycle, we are entering a boring period. That's all. And this can last until mid-January. And so, even if we have an acceleration phase, it doesn't mean, for example, it doesn't mean we're going to reach a new ATH. There's perhaps a pricing of this to be done on key zones of potential reversal in a short acceleration phase.
So, I don't have the, I don't have the name. So it must be space. Hello. Is it ideal to convert altcoins into stablecoins and wait for opportunities to re-enter the market, knowing that I already have a loss of about 60%? First of all, a 60% loss means that you already have altcoins that are very volatile, and it means that at some point, you continued to buy in a downward phase without ever de-risking a part. So you have to learn in acceleration phases to de-risk. Even if you are at a loss, you have to reduce your exposure. You have to regain cash when you have an acceleration phase, and that's very important. If you don't do that, you'll never have a cash reserve, and you'll systematically suffer the downward pressure. The question of 60%, should you sell or not? I think it will all depend on the structuring of your portfolio and especially its composition. I think there are certain altcoins that you shouldn't have in your portfolio right now, that are underperforming and have very low volatility. And the important thing here is perhaps to regain cash rather than asking yourself if you should sell everything or not. Don't forget 1 or 0. Money management is this, it's not 1, it's not 0, it's in between, and that's where you have to find the compromise. And I think indeed, with certain altcoins and a good portion of stablecoins, you can, for example, in DeFi, also generate cash flow.
Tin Kidan. So I'm sorry if I mispronounce your name. What percentage for each part of the portfolio? So I started talking about that. Globally, it clearly depends on you. That's simple, it depends on you. It depends on the management and the risk tolerance you have. And these are the questions you need to ask yourself. That's why you need to do your factualization in your money management, which will be essential. Can we hope that cryptocurrencies in the top 100 that are at -50% will rebound to limit the loss? I think SPR is not enough, Hunter. I think you absolutely need risk management, meaning you shouldn't hope for something. You need to implement the actions that allow you to. That is to say, if there is an acceleration phase, okay, what are you willing to take as a loss? Is it to say that your entire portfolio will gain 50%? So to gain 50% it will be x2. Currently, I think the probability is relatively low. That doesn't mean it can't happen, but it means you have to ask yourself, is it probable or not? What is the probability, and do I accept staying at this negative level? And if it goes lower, where do I stop? And perhaps you will sell at a bottom, and that's where it will be complicated. So perhaps in an acceleration phase, even if it's short, start to de-risk, accept the loss. Part of the things, you can't always succeed. You must always have a part of loss. That's the principle. To win, you have to know how to lose. Sometimes, the loss can be too substantial, and that's how we learn money management. I can assure you that my first money management lesson really broke my teeth and hurt me a lot in trading. So I completely understand what you're feeling here.
RM, USDT risks de-pegging too because it's backed by US debt which will soon be worth nothing. You also need to diversify stablecoins. So I can say that if there is a total de-pegging, stablecoins will be the last of your worries. And I think you shouldn't consider that, well, you shouldn't underestimate the capacity we have to push forward, especially from the USA. Okay? I think stablecoins will bring a lot of liquidity to US debt, and that will give them more strength, and that's a question we'll ask ourselves in several years.
Choc 64 31, the good ratio of stablecoins versus crypto depends on your management, it depends on who you are. That is to say, I always have a fairly high portion of stablecoins. It's something I like. I like to reduce infinite volatility. I like to have cash to seize opportunities, even in an acceleration phase. So that is to say, when we are really in full FOMO mode, I am never 100% exposed. I have a minimum of 20% stablecoins because it allows me to regularly take profits and thus maintain my stablecoin level, which remains sufficient to continue holding long-term.
Ad hunter, yes, I am overexposed. I didn't de-risk, but what to do now that the damage is done? I think there's no 1 or 0 here, Hunter. I think it depends on the design of your portfolio, it depends on what you have in it. I mean, this impacts a lot. But already, to start, just take a first step, tell yourself, I accept to regain a little equity, I sell a certain number of cryptos at a loss. Don't be at 1 or 0, but already starting to move allows you to not be blocked afterwards and to limit some of the damage.
Choc, do we do this loop every week, month, or so? I think you're talking about the BTC loop. It depends on the yields you have. Personally, I like to do it every week because it doesn't take me much time. At the moment, the setup I showed you, when you are trained and you know it, and for example, if you are on Rift, even if you have zero knowledge in decentralized finance, in the space of 4-5 weeks, you are capable of implementing it, and it takes about 2 hours per week to manage, to look at, to listen to different content because I am very active on it and I post a lot of content. My coaches too, who are all experts in it. Of course, it allows you to save a lot of time, and I do it every week, they do it every day. It depends again.
Manu, who tells us Hunter, I'm doing the DeFi training, it's very interesting. I'm starting to generate gains on liquidity pools and I'm placing USDC on Aave which yields some interest. So here's an example, the fact of not being blocked in the investor market and having the ability to mobilize this spot investment to generate yield, it allows you to open up the field of possibilities and it's a big, big strength. It's something that allows you to be active. It's something that allows you to take action. And speaking of taking action, you have the little link, you have the little scan. Make an appointment. Really, I can assure you that in any case, even if it's just to make an appointment, you're not sure of anything, we won't sell anything. That is to say, we are here to listen to you, to see if we can accompany you or not. If you don't want to, there's no problem, no worries. In any case, we won't go any further. We are just here to discuss with you. And I know it's complicated in these periods, so don't hesitate. I can assure you that in any case, it will be enriching for you.
Choc again, will this always be true with Mika 2, the current one, compared to the state of the, how to say, state of the text? Yes. And then we'll see what happens afterwards. And there are always ways to operate within it. In any case, decentralized finance and market making are not necessarily linked in all of this, and we can, and we can operate differently.
Muji, but do you think we could have an institutional cycle on altcoins, for example, on Solana? So, Solana is not an altcoin, it's an altcoin. Okay. I think we can have interest, but the reality is that if there is a risk, yes. That is to say, if there is market fear, people will go to BTC. Already, you look at the gap between when you withdraw company investments from Ether that have gone through ETFs, we see that there is very little demand for Ethereum. There is a little demand for Solana, but it's more people moving their Solana to ETFs, and so it's going to be a bit more complicated, but I think there can be demand indeed, but you shouldn't be in a hurry about it.
Pixel Nova, if the equities are hacked, does our money in the pool go up in smoke? Not at all. These are separate things, and Aave had a huge fund to compensate users. There is a huge restriction. So it's something that is very solid.
SD, conclusion, I messed up my 4 years of bull run with only 20% profit. I lost 4 years because on the Nasdaq, I would have made +50% +150%. Well, listen, if in 4 years you were there and you only bought BTC, you wouldn't have made 150%. Just with BTC, you would have made x7. There you go. It's not to put you down, it's just to explain that we always have the means to see the worst. Tell yourself that many would be happy to have 20% profit, and that you can congratulate yourself given the difficulty of the market and perhaps the level of knowledge, I don't know your level of knowledge, and perhaps you didn't have money management, surviving and being in the positive is already something that is very positive. And yes, indeed, on the Nasdaq, you would have made 150%, but the problem is that on the Nasdaq, you might not have bought in that way, and by buying BTC, you would have made more. And again, the point is not to say that you failed, but that you survived, you learned. And now, what do you do with this learning? What do you do now that you know? Do you take action or not? That's the question I have to ask you.
RM, thank you for the second-choice altcoins. You have to accept losses immediately. I think there are cuts to be made, and you will always have, this is from experience. I mean, when I cut three lines, I'm almost sure that when I cut three lines, one of them, 10 minutes after I cut it, pumps. Frankly, it's unbearable, you have to accept it. It's part of the things, like
And in any case, when you take losses, you know that at some point these assets can increase in value, but you don't necessarily look at the drop. That is to say, many have cut exaggerated losses, for example, of -50%, and now they say, "Ah, but it exploded?" No, no, it didn't explode. Just put the graph back, you see that it went up by two pixels compared to where you sold. So it's calm. There. You also have to accept this part. I know it's very frustrating, but it's part of the notion of factualization where emotion must be put aside and we manage the factual part.
Xavier Renal, what do you think of privacy coins like The Cash Monero? I think it's very useful. I think it allows us to maintain privacy among ourselves. I think that unfortunately it will be banned in the European Union and that it will disappear in this way. Is it something I would invest in? Absolutely not, on my end, and especially Zcash, which shot up like a rocket. When it's like that, either I trade it and I play short-term in a phase of pure acceleration on it, but rarely do I re-enter when there's been a hype that's finally starting, that I'm not in from the very beginning of the hype. I don't enter. Especially when we're at a top, even if it continues to push, it's not a big deal. There will be other green candles later that will come. It's called being patient, it's important.
Is the cycle not shifted because of Covid? No, I don't think so. RM, I think you're talking about XRP, XLM, Hbar, regarding not having certain altcoins, it still depends on the conception. There are altcoins on which you can have beliefs or not. I know that many people bought XRP, XLM, and HBAR because they had a certain belief in the ISO. Well, okay, well seen what happened, but after that, if you have a belief in XRP, you can very well have an exposure to XRP. It also all depends on the entry price. Did you buy it at the top or not? You see, similarly, you don't let lines bleed continuously.
Bruno Lavigne, are there significant risks on AVX because of collateral? I don't understand your question. I will try to understand what you tried to say. I don't promise to answer just based on that, in any case, targeted. Is there a significant risk on Avax because of collateral? So, are you asking me if there is a risk for Avax as collateral? Avax is something that is AVAX, it's something that is volatile. So it can't necessarily be a very, very good collateral on that side. It means there's a lot of volatility. You won't be able to borrow much on that side. After, AVAX remains a very good blockchain specialized in finance and gaming. So, well, I think using Avax for investments, for doing DeFi, there's no problem on that side.
Nabil, good evening Thibo. Good evening Nabil. What do you think of prop firms on Kraken? Well, prop firms, it depends on which ones. I think on Kraken, Kraken is a very good platform with which I am a partner and which I use on that side, and which will soon become a partner of Rift, of everything I've built. By the way, I don't know if you knew Rift before I talked about it. It's true that I talk about it quite little, but Rift has existed since 2023, and it's true that I talk about it quite little, especially on the channel, but I think I'll bring myself to talk about it a bit because many people tell me they are not aware and say it's a mistake not to be aware. So there you go.
Martin, do you have advice on how to de-risk a portfolio that is at -60%? I already explained a bit earlier, it's the same principle. In fact, your -60% should not explain your management. First, you implement your management, you think about all the questions I asked, you define your risk management, what you are willing to accept or not. And then, you create your stablecoin part. As soon as there's an acceleration, boom, you take back a stablecoin position and so on. You don't FOMO. Okay, it's starting again, it's not a big deal, too bad. Okay? The important thing is to have stablecoin. Stablecoin allows you to reduce your risk. It's super important. Don't systematically just look at the upside. Think about the risk. It's super important. I know, it's difficult. The words are simple, the application is difficult. That's precisely what we do at Rift too. We help people do the difficult things because it's never simple. And don't hesitate, you have the QR code, you have the link to make an appointment. Again, you'll meet great people.
Adunter, will the upcoming macro news mean €2000? The €2000? So, there's no quantitative easing, calm down. There's just a decrease on that side. There's a bit of a repo rate, but there's no QE. The end of the US stimulus, I think it will be rather positive, but the problem is that the end of the year will be complicated, and even let's say, you see, this is where it's very complicated, even let's say it's taking off. What tells you that BTC will push? That is to say, when you look at the BTC NASDAQ ratio, we're not following. So what says that BTC will push? And do you want to play, finally, what is your risk management? Let's do it that way. What is your risk management to manage this end of the year, this end of risk of 2024, of the 4-year cycle, and potentially all that you've just told me. And that's where globally the answer is. It's not about trying to be right. All I'm saying is how do you manage this risk? Personally, I price this risk, I price it with a part of stablecoin. Okay? I price the fact that we could potentially reach 86,000. If we reach 86,000, I will buy with a zone at 74 afterwards.
How do you decide to get rid of a shitcoin, crypto by crypto? I look at the general performance, I look at how much I lost on it, when I bought it, I look at why I bought it, was the objective met or not? And at that point, I make a decision to cut. And when I have a money management problem, it's when I have a disruption in my stablecoin part, I cut, I don't ask questions, I get out my chainsaw and I go for it. Let's continue.
Tokyo, Eclair, Bama, Marima. Well, that's a lot. What's the minimum capital to start DeFi if you don't have that capital yet? What to do to move forward, just keep accumulating. For DeFi capital, I think if you want to really create a snowball effect because you don't have minimum capital, you can do DeFi now on Base, it's not expensive. So globally, even with 100 bucks, you can train. I think it might even be interesting to improve your skills that way. And if you want to change things, it's at least 5000 bucks minimum to really start implementing a strategy that works well and will bear fruit in the coming years.
Patricia, should Solana be kept in the portfolio? I think keeping Solana can be smart. However, if you are 100% Solana, that's where you need to ask questions. Again, it's all a question of ratio, okay? It's super important. And the ratio is not just "Ah, you need 10% of So No, it's the ratio compared to other cryptos." It's total risk management.
Good evening, what do you recommend as a liquidity pool, as a pair? If you want something simple and profitable, that doesn't give you a headache with minimal risk, BTC USDC works pretty well. And then, there are plenty of choices, there are plenty of things that can be done. You can go for Ether USDC during retracement periods. So at that point, you'll be in risk periods like now, you'll be defensive in your liquidity pools. So that allows you to accumulate a maximum of BTC without taking risks. And when we move back to something accelerating, you'll go for crypto versus crypto pools. So with, for example, I don't know, Ether plus another crypto, and so you'll try to surf the acceleration phase and short-term, and that's where it works well. There are many subtleties in decentralized finance. There are very simple things that can be done as I showed you, but then there are many strategies, snuggle, pseudo-snuggle, defensive management, etc. It's not for nothing that at Rift, I made a complete training of over 15 hours on it, because there's a lot to say. There's a lot, a lot to say. I've done many step-by-step guides on all the platforms. I've explained all the strategies, how to do it, why to do it, and in addition, every week, I explain the composition of my liquidity pools, why I create them, why I close them, and the ranges I set to simplify everyone's life. If you're interested, scan, scan, make an appointment, I can assure you that decentralized finance, you'll be happy, truly happy to be in DeFi.
François, you didn't answer above, but are liquidity income higher than borrowing fees? François, I'm sorry, I don't understand. In fact, you need to understand that your liquidity fees, you don't care much because the principle is that you will borrow, for example, at 6%, okay? You will deposit $100,000, okay? Your $100,000 will represent about 3%. You will borrow 30% of this $100,000 at 6%. So that means that already net net, you will be positive because you earned 3% on $100,000, okay? And you will pay 6% on $30,000. So you agree with me that you have a positive return just on that, and then with this $30,000 you will generate 30% per year, or even more. So, basically, you will be profitable no matter what.
Choc. Are all assets subject to? I'm sorry if I forget things, I'm doing my best. Will all assets subject to ETFs eventually be less subject to cycles? I think so, but the question is rather, will there be an interest? Again, it depends on the volume. If you have ETFs with a few million, nothing will happen. You see, Patricia, PP is like a meme coin. So, will there be a meme coin cycle at the end? That's the big question. I think if there is indeed a valuation, we will end up with a meme coin cycle on it. After that, will we return to the levels we knew? Will it be PP that takes off? Or will it be a new one? Unfortunately, you have to have it.
With pleasure. Nabil, I hope you also like the Tibo Invest channel. If you don't know the Tibo Invest channel, I invite you to watch it. I release videos every two weeks. Videos that are totally different from crypto. I think you'll learn a lot. In any case, I hope.
Damien Postnick, hello Thibo. There are several ETFs announced for certain cryptos, XRP, XLM, HBAR, Atom, I saw. Can projects bring liquidity into these cryptos? I think there will be liquidity especially linked to the speculation of ETF arrival, rather than liquidity itself. We hear that everything is delayed until 2026. What do you think about that? CRM? Well, I think there's no delay for me. I think it's just new rules, and that doesn't mean we can't get our knees broken in 2026 and have a very hard time recovering afterwards. That's why you absolutely must price it.
Apparently, Stac, good evening. How to manage the impact of the spread at the closing of an LP? Well, take cryptos that have a lot of liquidity. Okay. If you take a crypto that has very little liquidity and you put a lot on it, well, it will be complicated. I don't have any spread on a liquidity pool closing when I do it on BTC USDC on Base, on a large pool or on Ether, you see. So I think that's mainly it. And again, when you close, it all depends on how you close. If you close a liquidity pool by swapping everything to an asset, then you will have a spread. If you just close to close by withdrawing your assets, you don't have a spread because you just get back the underlying assets. So you have zero spread.
Mi, I have a question. Why should we go into a bull market if it wasn't the case for the indices, and what happened in January 2025 isn't it a representation of what could happen in the future? I agree with Tomi. That's why you have to price it. You absolutely have to price it because it's a possibility.
Hunter, with pleasure. Damien, Thibo, do you think Sonic still has a future? I think the blockchain has a future. I think the token will be complicated right now. There are big liquidity problems right now. I'm going to take a few more questions soon because I see time is running out and I feel my voice is dropping. It's dropping. So I want to still have my voice for tomorrow morning's daily.
Evan, do you remain bullish for Q3 and 2026 despite the theoretical end of the cycle? Yes, I remain bullish, but that doesn't stop me from managing risks. Again, it's always that. You can have an investment thesis as long as you have the assurances that allow you to come out victorious or at least limit the damage. That's the most important thing, and it's not because I'm bullish now that in the week, with the different information that will come out, I will remain so. It's super important to understand that. You have to adapt quickly to this market. You have to be on the ball with this market. And that's why if you want to be on the ball, if you want to learn quickly, to get all the information, if you want to have me several times a week in addition to YouTube where I concretely explain what I systematically do on the difference in investment on everything, if you want to have access to information, it's in the comments, it's in the description, I was going to say, excuse me, on the QR code, on the link. I'm starting to get tired, I'm losing my voice. So I'll stop quickly. I'll just finish on the last three questions, or rather the last three points.
Bruno, do you have any advice for paying as little tax as possible in case of a cash-out, apart from Lombard? I think you already have the answer in your sentence.
Bertino Sylvain, thank you for being so regular. With great pleasure. It's with pleasure that I do it because it pleases me to do it in the first place, and then it pleases me to be able to discuss with you something that continually fascinates me.
RM, to summarize, the crypto investor profile must change if they want to survive. Absolutely. The holder from the golden age of the previous cycle is practically dead. At least on altcoins, we agree. Are you telling us that the dream is over? No, I'm just saying that the dream is still present. It's just that the dream of easy money wasn't necessarily present before. Even less so because there was a lot of risk in the other cycles, very few big winners in the other cycles, and that's still the case now. And the idea of using the same rules with the same rules and that the market doesn't evolve, that's perhaps the biggest mistake. That's why many were caught out this cycle by transferring part of their BTC, or all of their BTC, to altcoins in 2024 or 2025 to surf the altcoin wave, and it didn't happen as planned. That is to say, BTC is a more long-term vision, and it's not something you transfer to altcoins. That's also why the vision of greed might have been too strong on that side, whereas in 2021, there wasn't this vision of greed because we were all surprised by what happened, and I think that's also the big difference between the two.
Well, that's it. Thank you, thank you for being there until the end. Thank you for all your questions. It's a pleasure to exchange with you. Something I can't do on a daily basis. And well, this masterclass is a little bit different. I hope you enjoyed it. If so, let me know. Let me know in the comments of tomorrow's daily. It will be a pleasure to tell you anyway tomorrow morning in the comments. Don't forget in the video to always like and make an appointment. QR code, you have the link, and I wish you a very, very good evening, and I'll see you tomorrow.