Ranking the Mid Round WRs in 2026 Fantasy Football

We are continuing our first edition of our 2026 reddraft wide receiver rankings. Quick reminder, season pass live right now. You can get all of these rankings as we go through them. So, this is where we left off, Danny. We had Pickkins, Higgins, Neighbors, Z Flowers, those types of guys. We've done some shuffling of our rankings and the tiers and whatnot. We did have a couple more guys kind of join this tier that make up more so of the like the mid round receivers. Like we're starting to get into the range here where you're talking about mid third round, late third round, early fourth round type of players. So, we have Chris Ave, Jaylen Wadd, and Devonte Adams. You guys are going to notice as we're going through this that the numbers are a little bit off. We're, you know, working behind the scenes with the devs to do that. We'll swap between this view and that view so you can see kind of in the order of the numbers versus the actual physical tier list. But um I'll let you start us off Danny with with Chris because a lot of people were mad that he wasn't in the last video.

So, uh, full transparency, I'll let you uh talk about the cons part of it because I actually did have them uh ranked in the next tier. So the way my tier currently works is I had it as Pickens, Smith-Njigba, Neighbors, Flowers, and Higgins. So I'm higher on Aiyuk overall. I understand your concern in terms of he's dealing with potential uh blood clotting issues. We don't really know about the full capacity of his physical health at this point and they did add some significant target competition. You take a first-round receiver in the top 10. You also take a tight end who I was extremely high on with Oscar Delp. So there could be more target competition for Aiyuk. Really when I look at Aiyuk, he just feels like a guy that you can get on base with. A guy that if you take in the third round and the fourth round, you could pretty much easily project for 14, 14.5 plus points per game. It's just my question mark. Does he get back up to the 16.5? Does he get back up to the top 10, top 12 receiver he was last year? I guess your take on that could just frankly be how involved Shanahan is right away.

Yeah, I think most people are going to do this. They're going to go, well, when you look at the games with Tyler Shuck, he was an 18-point per game receiver, which I think it's a little dangerous to do with Chris just because of, like you said, Bryce Lance, Jordan Tyson, Oscar Delp all added to the situation. I don't believe, we've talked about this on numerous occasions, that Tyler Shuck will be nearly as good as he was last year. I think he'll have a little bit of a sophomore slump, progress a little bit. And the other thing too is like Chris Aiyuk just packed so much of that production into those playoff weeks where it just it mattered so much for fantasy players when that point production came that I think we remember him so fondly. And again, there's no question in my mind that he's going to go up in my rankings, assuming he's totally cleared for training camp. He is right now my wide receiver 19. He'll definitely be closer to 15 or 16, I would imagine, um, by the time training camp gets here and he's fully cleared. I just do have some concern that you have significantly more target competition. And it's not like this was a player who's been consistent every single year, always putting up, you know, 1,200, 1,300 yards. Like last year was the best season of his career.

Yeah, I just think the ultimate caveat there would be if you are a believer in Shuck, you've kind of made it apparent that you aren't a believer in Shuck. But I'm a lot more on the page where he Shuck could end up being a top 10, top 15 overall quarterback. And if you think that's in the range of outcomes, this is very clearly the best quarterback situation of his career. And like you kind of pointed out, it was a small sample size, but an 18-point per game stretch for him. A guy that can create that easy separation, that can work down the field in an offense that we project to be one of the three fastest in the NFL. Like the upside is very clear. If Kyle Shanahan, if Tyler Shuck lead this to be a top 10 overall Saints offense, Aiyuk is going to be a big-time producer in fantasy. There is a little bit more risk in terms of his projection than I would say the other guys we've talked about ahead of him.

Yeah, and I might change my opinion on him once I actually do the Saints projections because they're very closely they're coming up for me. And uh, I am going to obviously project Shuck for maybe lower than some people will, but I'm not going to bury the guy. I think there's still going to be a fast-paced offense and that type of thing. So, of course, people were mad that he wasn't in the last video. Like Aiyuk pretty much was just on the doorstep of being in the last video. Um, obviously it's going to be hard for me to make a Bucs take after making Saints take, but I did talk about him at Magnazium in yesterday's video.

So, this is like the inverse, right? Because you have Aiyuk a little bit lower and I have Aiyuk about where the consensus is. You have Aiyuk a good bit higher than where I do.

Yeah, and like I am at 14 um positionally and I'm at 34 overall. Um, it looks like Sammy's in lockstep with me from a dynasty perspective. I'm obviously like one of the highest on the site on him as well. The Iiyuk case that I made in yesterday's video essentially was okay in the first five games where was his alignment? It wasn't X receiver. He was playing Z receiver opposite Mike Evans. We've gotten many reports out now that he will not be playing X receiver primarily, even though I do think he'll mix into that role, that alignment, you're going to avoid those number one corners for the most part because I do see it very likely that Chris Godwin is playing X receiver at times. Trey Palmer, the 6'4, you know, super athletic receiver that we took in the third round, is going to be playing X receiver at times and Jalen McMillan's going to be playing X receiver at times. I guess the important thing for me on Aiyuk is the stuff that I think actually went wrong last year, which is that once he suffered the hamstring injury in San Francisco, most fantasy doctors expected him to be out two to four games. He came back the following week on Monday Night Football in Detroit. You and I were at game seven of the Mariners and Blue Jays series when that was happening. Aiyuk missed no time with that injury and I expected him to miss time. So the fact that he kind of just wore down down the stretch, one of the worst catchable target rates in the NFL, Baker Mayfield playing like [ __ ] 11 different offensive line combinations. I just generally think that the offense will run through him. He's going to have, let's say, 140ish target projection in my projections if I had to guess. And we're looking at a guy for me that I view as yeah, he can be not calling him this year's JSN, but let's call him 2024's JSN where he's like a 14, 15, 16 point per game producer.

Yeah, that's definitely the upside case for Aiyuk. I guess I'll bring up some of the cons here. I think it's tough to completely write off what he did down the stretch. Obviously, there is context. He was banged up, but at the same time, we did see a snap rate go down that also coincided with Jalen McMillan coming back from the neck injury. And I do ultimately think it's going to be more of a relatively flat even target distribution than maybe you do because you're probably more on the stage that it's going to be Aiyuk and then everybody else is going to factor in. I more so think when you look at the combination of Aiyuk, Godwin, uh Jalen McMillan, maybe Cade Otton getting about 12% of the targets here, maybe Trey Palmer working in. I just think it's far more ambiguous. And on top of that, I feel like you're going to be higher on the projection of the Bucs offense than I am. I view them as more of a fringe top 18 to 20 type of offer.

Exactly where they're going to end up for me. I'm not going to project.

All right. So, you're on the same page. I wasn't sure if maybe you're a little bit more optimistic because obviously you're more of a a Baker guy than I am. For sure.

Yeah, no, I they'll probably be about a league average offense for me, too. I'm not going to project them much higher than that. Um, my thing is like a 23.6% target share as a rookie when all that went wrong and Mike Evans there for a lot of those games as well. Like I I think that he can build upon that and have a 25% target share and I think that him and Godwin generally will be about 25, 22%. And then Jalen McMillan, Trey Palmer and those guys will fall in line behind. I don't view Jalen McMillan on the same level of a target earner as Aiyuk or Godwin frankly.

Yeah, I I just think down the stretch the way he played like compared to the fact that he missed the first half of the year. Obviously the way he finishes rookie year like I feel like McMillan will be a factor to a certain point but like you said Aiyuk could very well easily lead this team in targets 25 plus% of the share. I just personally prefer the profiles of some other guys around him which is why he ends up at 43 for me.

In two seasons Jaylen McMillan has exceeded 20% of his team's targets in a single game three times. Like he's not a target earner. He's a touchdown and big play threat. That's why.

I'm not a huge optimist on him. It it is unfortunate because I'm curious what it would have looked like if he didn't break his neck in the preseason too.

Yeah. But even like accounting for the stretch at the back half of his rookie season, he wasn't earning targets. He was scoring.

Yeah. Um, ultimately though, I honestly think between all these three players with Aiyuk, with Godwin, with McMillan, they're all very similar archetypes and I think they're probably going to be used in conjunction.

Maybe. Maybe. I I just view it as like Aiyuk tier, Godwin tier, McMillan and Palmer. That's kind of how I view it. Um, anyways, Jaylen Wadd also another guy that I'm I am extremely high and I can't imagine there's a single person on the site higher than me on Jaylen Wadd. And there is apparently Sammy is higher than me on Jaylen Wadd. Um, and you're kind of right in the same neck of the woods there. I'm wide receiver 17 and you're at 21. Um, for me with Jaylen Wadd, the thing that I get excited about is when I projected out the Broncos, it was pretty easy to get to Jaylen Wadd having 14, 15 fantasy points per game because in his career despite sharing the field with Tyreek Hill for the majority of his career from the last, you know, three, three and a half years or so, we're looking at a guy who's been consistently a 23, 24% target share player. And Courtland Sutton is not near the target earner that a prime Tyreek Hill when he first got to Miami was. So, I view Jaylen Wadd honestly as a guy that can play all over the formation. Most of the beat writers have come out and said that and I talked about that in yesterday's video that every route looks the same from him. They can use him at all three levels. They're going to give him they should feed him 10 targets a game. One of the beat reporters said like he apparently looks incredible. He's in his prime. And what one thing you're going to notice with my rankings especially is that I do really favor those guys that have finished as wide receiver ones before in the mid rounds because it is definitely at least in my experience the most predictive indicator of future production. And you think about last year with Chris Aiyuk is a good example of this. He was going in round six because the concussion issues but he had finished already as a top 15 receiver on a season before which is why I was all in on him. And I think Jaylen Wadd to me kind of represents a similar case on a team that went to the AFC Championship last year.

Yeah, Wadd being this year's Aiyuk, especially given the fact that we kind of view him right now as damaged goods. It's like, oh, he's been banged up and now he's not even on, you know, the team that drafted him anymore. Like, I feel like there's kind of that stink. Obviously, there's the inverse where I mean, you're going from the [ __ ] Dolphins to the Denver Broncos. I objectively speaking, this is a big-time move, but I feel like a lot of people are kind of downplaying just how big of a move it is because even if we are overall not where we were with the Broncos last year, like the Broncos, let's just say they are more of a 22.5, 23 point per game offense as opposed to 24. Even that is just so much more than what you're getting from the Miami projection.

Yeah. And I have them projected for 27.94 points per game. I'm all in, dude. I'm all in. I think this is five to 10 offenses in football.

Vegas is at 22.25. 25. So, I'd probably be somewhere between where you're at and where Vegas is at because ultimately I think Vegas is probably a little bit too low.

Yeah, I mean, they have the number one offensive line in football according to ESPN. They have a top 12 strength of schedule. Um, despite having a top three defense last year, they were 57% pass rate. Like, this is a team that does like to to throw the ball. And they're stable of running backs between Dobbs, Harvey, and Coleman are all capable guys, but I don't think you have a guy there you need to feed the ball to all the time. And Jaylen Wadd and Bo Nix and Courtland Sutton to me will be the engines of this offense. And I actually like all three of them at value. And Jaylen Wadd is the the one that I think has the highest ceiling just because he's already done it. He's already had that, you know, wide receiver 12 finish or whatever he had in 2022. Again, keep in mind that Tyreek Hill was like an MVP candidate that year.

So, I'm definitely not at 27.75 or 27.9, but also I understand that the Vegas projection at 22.25. like it'll probably be like I said the 12th to 10th best offense in my opinion.

Yeah, I mean they were fifth in offensive plays in 2024 um or in 2025, sorry. They have this new hot shot play caller. I've brought up this point before. Sean Payton is the most egotistical coach in the NFL. The fact that as an 18-year experienced head coach, he's handing over play calling duties to uh Davis Webb must mean that he must know what the [ __ ] he's doing. So that's the other part of this. I think that by the end of this season, we're going to look back at the Broncos and be like, "Wow, breakout offense of 2025 or 2026, sorry, and Davis Webb's a head coach somewhere." I I that's what I think this season is going to look like for the Broncos.

It definitely could. And I just think ultimately where Wadd's going, there's not much downside risk outside of injury. So.

Yeah, for sure. Um, again, numbers are a little bit wonky. So, Devonte Adams not, if I switch to this tab, you can see he's not really in this tier. He's actually kind of in the tier below. But, uh, if I just go back, we could just talk about him now. Again, generally speaking, there's not a massive difference between the guys in this range anyways. Um, everybody will point to the touchdown regression monster. Devonte Adams especially, but also, you know, Matthew Stafford and the Rams offense potentially. I guess I would just say what changed here? You still have Stafford, you still have McVay, you still have Puka Nacua. Devonte Adams showed no evidence signs of decline last year. He led the NFL in touchdowns in only 14 games. I guess you could say, okay, maybe naturally he only has 9, 10, 11 touchdowns instead of 14 in 14 games. But I just feel very confident and comfortable clicking his name.

Yeah, I guess the the the big worry there is if he's not scoring a touchdown per game and you're only getting, let's just say again, it's going to be a 34-year-old receiver who was at 56.5 um yards per game last year. If that fell to 51 yards per game and instead of scoring 14 touchdowns, he scores eight or nine, you're probably talking about the wide receiver 25 to 30 as opposed to a top 10 guy.

Yeah. And I think that's why his ADP is 50.3. And I think in home leagues maybe he'll go a little higher than that just because of the big name aspect of of Devonte Adams. But in the fifth round like even if his floor is let's say 12, 13 points per game I think you feel pretty comfortable with that pick. Um, but like you said, you know, maybe you'd regret taking him in the fifth round if you took him over like Travis Etienne's breakout season or Cam Akers breakout season or something like that.

So, we'll talk about this guy later on because obviously there's a huge chasm in our rankings between between where this guy is. But simply off of that ceiling factor alone, because ultimately I think Devonte Adams is a get on base play. You're trying to hit a single, you're trying to hit a double, you're trying to get maybe 85 to 90% of what he was last year in an ideal world. Like I'm not I don't think anybody's drafting Devonte Adams saying, "Oh, he's going to do exactly what he did last year."

Exactly. But I could see him scoring 12 times and actually having more targets than he had last year. Because I know he only had 8.1 targets per game, four receptions per game. I think he can have more than that to be honest in a best-case scenario. It just is tricky because like what if this is like oh yeah going from 33 to 34 it's like the Julio Jones thing.

It could be. Yeah, it absolutely could be. But I mean I got a future Hall of Fame receiver that still looked like a Pro Bowler last year. I'm not going to just predict a downfall just because he's 34.

But I will factor in factor it in when I'm looking at some home run swings in this range. Again, we'll talk about, you know, we're lower on consensus than where Trey Palmer is, but Trey Palmer I think has higher upside given the age. Carnell Tate. Um, I mean even like him versus Mike Evans probably a different conversation too cuz Mike Evans with the hamstring. But we'll talk about all those guys.

I just think saying things like Trey Palmer has higher upside. I would just say why why because he's younger.

24-year-old going on 25 receiver and I'm a little bit more concerned about the downfall of a 34-year-old than you are.

I I just think when you actually project out a ceiling scenario for both guys then Adams comes out on top. That's why I would say I don't think he has a higher ceiling than.

But I'm more I'm more so also implying that 33-year-old Devonte Adams is probably going to be better than what we see from 34-year-old Devonte Adams and even though I'm lower on Palmer objectively speaking year one to year two he should take a step up naturally.

I guess I I'm you're going to see where I'm definitely lower on Trey Palmer. Um, let's talk to Ladd McConkey, Terry McLaurin, and Darren Wilson. Again, they should all be in the same relative tier as Aiyuk, Wadd, and Adams because you can see just go by the numbers. The numbers are a good indication essentially of.

Of where these guys are at. Um, speaking on Ladd McConkey, I talked about him a little bit yesterday, so I'll save my kind of stuff on him. My point essentially, the TLDDR version was that I don't see a huge difference between him and Quentin Johnston. You're paying 36.9 overall ADP on Ladd McConkey versus Quentin Johnston goes in like the eighth round or whatever. So for me, I just when I as the manager of Ladd McConkey and the Flock league last year, there was no discernable difference between the two guys. Quentin Johnston was wide receiver 19 in fantasy points per game when you factor in receivers that played at least eight games. Like he was a legit dude. Ladd McConkey was not as good as Quentin Johnston last year. You can say, okay, rookie year, Ladd McConkey's coming back, whatever. When I projected these two guys out, they both project for about 13.5 to 14.5 points per game. Um, so for me, the one concern I have for McConkey is that he's not like the clear-cut number one this year's Jaxon Smith-Njigba type upside that some people seem to think that he has.

So that's where I will rebuttal because ultimately uh the thing we can't account for is just the change of scheme and we also can't account for just how much of a pest that Keenan Allen was. And I know that sounds stupid cuz Keenan Allen is unsigned right now and Keenan Allen is clearly a wash player, but Ladd McConkey thrives in space, being able to create separation, being able to catch the ball around, you know, 10 to 15 yards and really utilize that 4-3 speed in the open space. Having a guy like Keenan Allen who was taking a lot of that idealized usage, to me, having that not on the team and having a guy Mike McDaniel who historically has opened up this style of wide receiver is where the pro Ladd McConkey people are going to come. I have my wide receiver 19 because ultimately I think that is a ceiling worth uh striving for again 19 versus 17 probably about in lockstep where the market is but that's not to say that QJ isn't a great value down the board.

Yeah, I mean Ladd McConkey the biggest issue was Keenan at the beginning of the season and from weeks 11 onward here you see two games of top 24 production. It's not like Keenan Allen was an issue the entire year I guess would be my only counter to the Keenan Allen side of it and also Keenan Allen could still be signed there in my opinion. Uh, I think the train has kind of passed on that, but maybe we'll see.

But like if he wants to play again, like it's possible that Herbert would vouch for him because they play together so many years and stuff. I don't think it's outside the range of outcomes. And here's my ultimate point here. If Keenan Allen at 35 years old or however old he is, this much of a hindrance to Ladd McConkey isn't as good as people think he is.

Yeah. But also, you got to take into account that you're going from literally a prehistoric offensive mind to Mike McDaniel. And maybe just Greg Roman didn't like the size. Like that's really what it came down to.

Maybe he didn't. I I guess that's like.

Just bolsters my I think QJ's just as good of a receiver as him.

So I don't think the scheme better than does in my opinion.

Better than Quentin Johnston strength, glance, crossing routes, all that kind of stuff. He's better at that than is. He's not nearly as fluid in the open field as McConkey is.

I just disagree with that.

I mean, we we'll end up seeing, but um, yeah, when I see Ladd McConkey, I see the perfect wide receiver for what Mike McDaniel wants to do. And I think this could be a Jaylen Waddle type of situation.

It could be. Yeah, it could be for sure. I I still like McConkey for what it's worth. And I still have him.

I like on the board, too. Yeah, I I still like him projected slightly ahead of Quentin Johnson because ultimately I think like if we simulated the season 100 times, 55 of them he would outscore Ladd McConkey, but I think the market is treating it like 95% of the time he would outscore um Quentin Johnson.

I would probably be be at about an 80 to 85. At the end of the day, the way I look at it is if this offense does take the necessary step, they're a top 10 offense in the league. Herbert throws for let's not even say 2021 numbers but let's say his best season since 2021 which we both believe to be in the range of outcomes. If he's passing for 4,500 yards and 30 plus passing touchdowns I think both of them are going to be smashes at ADP. I just think Ladd McConkey is going to have the higher echelon of smash if he's able to get across the line he can legitimately beat.

It looks like weeks 10 to playoff game Ladd McConkey from his rookie season then I can see a 17 point per game season in his range of outcome.

And that's kind of where my belief is. I think he's more of that player than the guy who struggled last year. Cuz I I do think you have merit. I'm like struggled last year.

Projected efficiency wise, target share wise for exactly halfway in between those two players.

Yeah, again, like your your determining factor on if McConkey is going to be worth it in the fourth. It's just where you're kind of batting the pendulum. So the way I kind of view McConkey is more so just a slightly cheaper version of how I view Z Flowers. Yeah, I just I guess would rather take Z Flowers and Quinton Johnson than Ladd McConkey and whatever other receiver I would get at Quinton Johnson's ADP.

That's fine.

Terry McLaurin. Um, for now.

I'm in.

Clear-cut number one receiver in Washington. It sounds like there will be an addition at some point probably of Brandon Aiyuk, maybe of a different receiver. Um, I am at 45 overall positionally. You are actually the highest on the site at 20. I'm at 22. Uh, you're the highest on the site overall as well. I'll let you I'll let you make the pro case for him considering you're the highest.

Yeah, I've historically been an anti-Terry McLaurin guy, but uh who doesn't like a career-high in touchdowns, career-high in terms of fantasy points per game, wide receiver seven overall that we saw in Jayden Daniels rookie year. We kind of saw the pendulum swing last year where it's like McLaurin before the training camp stuff because keep in mind his ADP did slide once the training camp rolled out and all that [ __ ] happened but before that happened he was like kind of more of considered a three four turn pick and all of a sudden.

He was going higher than that. He was an early third at one point.

He was an early third. Oh, right. Yeah. Because he was going with the CD Lamb teams. That's correct.

He was an early third-round pick. Obviously the holdout and you know didn't really get off to a hot start and obviously we saw what happened in those first 11 weeks. He's basically a useless fantasy season for Terry McLaurin. But you go back a couple years ago. We go to 2024 real quick. This guy down the stretch had what four out of six games with over 20 fantasy points. Like I think that level of ceiling, that level of big play upside on top of being in what I think is going to be the best offensive coordinator system of his career, having a guy like Kliff Kingsbury calling your offense, guess what? We're going to be getting him in uh moved inside. We're going to be getting him moved across the formation. We're going to be getting him on less stagnant overall routes. Like when I'm looking at Terry McLaurin, you're combining the Kliff Kingsbury usage with with just the overall touchdown equity he had in his first year with Jaden Daniels. The ceiling could legitimately be a 17 point per game receiver.

It's funny you mentioned 17 points per game because after during that breakout game, Cincinnati Bengals Monday Night Football for Jaden Daniels, from that point onward, he was a 17 point per game receiver, wide receiver, 12 over that stretch. So, while you and I were lower on Terry McLaurin last season because of the holdout and some of the regression to the touchdowns, and I don't think either of us are arguing that he's going to score 14 times or 13 times or whatever he scored in 2024. Um, as of now, he is like by far the clear-cut number one wide receiver there. Brandon Aiyuk is gone. Maybe they'll bring back Aiyuk. Maybe they'll bring back uh, you know, a different receiver to work with Jaden Daniels or maybe they'll bring in Stefon Diggs or something like that. I don't want to get too over my skis on him because I do I'm kind of almost baking in that they will add somebody which is why I have him at like 22 or whatever it was. But I still think he's one of these get on base receivers in the early to mid fourth round that I'd feel comfortable with. Maybe you get him even at a slight discount because of how bad he was last year.

Well, so the optimism you had with Davis Webb coming in with the Broncos potentially uh like you said, you're very high on the offense. Like I think Kliff Kingsbury could have a similar type of impact where.

I guess the my concern with the that comparison is Kliff Kingsbury is running the offense not underneath Sean Payton whereas Davis Webb is running the offense underneath Sean Payton and also Commanders worse offensive line. Bears have in totality they have a better run game like better like there's just there's it's a a light situation I guess.

Yeah, again I I agree it's not a one-to-one. It's more so just based off the perspective of their expectations because I think people have higher expectations that on the Broncos offense whereas I feel like people are kind of more concerned with Washington where it's like Jaden Daniels has been banged up and Terry McLaurin held out and we don't know what to expect. I just also think the nature of the division with how the Cowboys are projecting with how the Eagles are projecting with the potential improvement with the Giants like I think that division as a whole could be fireworks.

It could be. Yeah, it definitely could be. Um, Garrett Wilson's quite low in my rankings, so I can quickly make the.

The anti-Wilson take. I have him as my 50th overall player at wide receiver. He's at 25 for me now.

I have been the Garrett Wilson guy, as you guys know. I'm the Garrett Wilson truther. I took him over Jefferson famously in the Flock League.

I just frankly think that Garrett Wilson is Terry McLaurin. But that being said, Garrett Wilson doesn't have Jaden Daniels. He has Geno freaking Smith who most recent news on him is not favorable. If you guys have been following Twitter, what's going on with one of his exes or something like that? I just think this situation is not very good. Not only is Garrett Wilson potentially have the lowest target share of the last couple of years coming up because Omar Cooper's a good receiver, Adonai Mitchell's reportedly getting hype in training camp and Kenyan Drake and Mason Taylor, they could run a lot more two tight end sets. And as we know, whenever Garrett Wilson's out there, he's getting number one corners. he's getting shadow covered, all that kind of thing. Yes, he was great before the injury last year. I just tend to think that he was a volume sponge in a bad situation and now he's a volume sponge in a bad situation with a potential downtick in volume. That's kind of the way I would look at him right now.

So, um, the one thing I will counter back is he did those in what, weeks one, three, four, five. Uh, week two, I believe he played with a backup quarterback because Fields wasn't in that game.

I mean, you're playing with backup quarterbacks all the time, Danny.

No. Fair, but I again just playing with Justin Fields. So, in the games that he played with Justin Fields last year were weeks 1, four, and five, and we got legitimate production from him as of the alpha, a guy that was getting basically eight plus targets every game, a guy that was scoring every game.

There was only one game in that stretch where Justin Fields had over 30 passing attempts.

I I just don't you think the Jets just [ __ ] goes wrong?

You can never take game splits that are good with.

I get that, Cory. But also, even if you're lower on Geno Smith, objectively speaking. Objectively speaking, even if you're lower.

Justin Fields better quarterback.

Justin Fields is not a better quarterback than Geno.

When you account for his rushing and how he moves in offense. Yes, he is.

No, bro. Geno Smith is horrible. He's been washed for three years.

Geno Smith's been a top 10 quarterback two years ago. Justin Fields was never that. Yes, he was. What do you mean? All that being said, a lot of this is due to the fact that the quarterback situation is still [ __ ].

I get that. But saying that Fields is better.

Point as well.

Saying that you think Fields is better than Geno is off base, bro.

Taco versus PP. They both suck ass.

There's a clear difference between a low-end starting quarterback and a guy that is lucky to be a backup, which is.

They're both backup quarterbacks in the NFL. No man, and then I guess that's where we disagree because I have Garrett Wilson a lot higher than you are of the fact that I think at minimum it is slightly better quarterback play than last year and even though in the long term I'm higher on Omar Cooper, I'm higher on Kenyan Drake. That's more so a 2027 and on play, I do think both are probably going to start the season relatively slow because I think Garrett Wilson is the unquestioned alpha here.

Yeah, and I could see myself looking really stupid by week eight on Garrett Wilson where he's like a 14.5 point per game receiver or something like that. Like the best of his career, by the way. It's not like he's been much better than that. And also, um, by down the stretch, I think Cooper and Drake will start to pick things up and maybe he loses a little bit of targets when it matters most. So, for me, I just feel like he's exactly how you get sixth place in your fantasy league by drafting him at the three-four turn. Like, I just don't think he's winning you [ __ ].

Yeah, I'm just I'm high on the player overall talent. I feel like we're already getting the discount with the offense cuz realistically from a pure target commanding standpoint, overall talent perspective, if he was in an average offense, I don't think we'd be having the conversation.

No, we wouldn't be I there's zero bottom five offense in football.

Like the way we kind of viewed Aiyuk except for obviously the um the health issue was dealing with like he was going really at the early portion of the third round in the top 25, 26. If that's where Aiyuk is going with still question marks with the Saints, I kind of view Aiyuk and Wilson same caliber of talent.

Yeah, I guess I'll um I'll take my chances on Garrett Wilson buying low on him if the Jets look better than I think. Or I'll get my shares in other formats. In baseball, he's too expensive in my opinion. He's too expensive in baseball. In redraft, maybe you'll get him in round five and he'll slide a little bit because people don't like the Jets or something like that. Like we saw in the flock league him slide way beyond his actual best ball ADP. I think best baseball is like the worst format to take him because he also needs touchdown upside to score in half PPR formats and I just don't think he has that on the Jets offense.

Funny enough, I still think he like obviously in totality wasn't a good baseball pick, but after the first five weeks, you're probably thinking you got the steal of the draft.

Oh, absolutely. Yeah, he would have been one of the best picks on the board. Um, if he had continued that, but there's a very good chance he wouldn't have cuz the Jets would have still stuck ass and they might still do exactly what they did last year. Garrett gets banged up, they shut him down. Like it's possible, very possible that happens as well.

So I have Garrett Wilson at 17. Uh, and we're about to talk about the guy I have at 18. So clearly I'm the one more pro on both these guys. And the reason why you're not as I would say.

Not that far off now because of the Odunze stuff. Um, I have him at 49 overall. Positionally I'm at 24. So yeah, I guess I'm a little bit lower still.

Yeah. And the reason why I'm high, it's very simple. Depending on how you feel about Burden versus Odunze, you're more so a dunce versus Burden. And if Odunze is fully healthy, I am just on the Burden over Odunze regardless of the situation right now. Obviously, now that Odunze is dealing with an injury makes me even more bullish about Burden. But realistically, what it comes down to is I think both those guys are going to be fighting for the number two target in the offense. I do believe the number one will be Kmet. And I do think the number two/number three in this offense for what we expect from Ben Johnson, the leap we could see from Caleb Williams, the overall schedule of the Bears, like I think they're going to be a 12 to 13 win type of football team. They play the Detroit Lions in week 17. That could be a 55, 60 point type of outing. When I combine all these factors, Burden is the type of profile and the type of situation I want to be investing in at the four or five turn.

Yeah, both of these guys, I think this is a philosophical thing for for us. You're willing to trust Garrett Wilson's sample size a little bit more with Justin Fields. You're willing to trust Luther Burden's sample size of when he was playing full snaps. I'm not really willing to trust either of those situations. I would rather take Mike Evans, who I have a much larger sample size of him being a great receiver. Obviously, he's a little bit older now. Um, Brian Thomas, like I don't view Brian Thomas Jr., Romeo Odunze, Jameson Williams, DJ Moore, Marvin Harrison, Quentin Johnson all that differently from Garrett Wilson and Luther. I think that they're all mid-round receivers that have pros, that have cons. I'm going to trust the guys that have a little bit more of a proven track record as my tiebreaker, but anybody can really argue any which way.

So, I think in totality, like you're not far off. Like for reference, between my 17th overall receiver and my 29th overall receiver, there's only one tier of difference and realistically that's probably the most I would say uh muted tier compared to you know the guys above like Nico to Pickens I think is a bigger tier than maybe even Garrett Wilson or Christian Watson.

Yeah. And if if I go to the list view where it's a little bit more accurate here, you can see that Burden is essentially the last guy in this tier and then we would move down to like Mike Evans of the world beyond that point. So again, just keep in mind that the tiers are kind of jumbled a little bit. These are probably the more accurate numbers, but just look at the uh the number itself. Um, Danny, let's go rapid fire here. I don't think we need to go individually on some of these guys. Go ahead.

Real quick, one more thing. Because you mentioned like I'm more willing to invest in the small sample size. You're a little bit more wary. You're willing to more so invest in older players with, you know, maybe injuries, maybe stuff like that kind of affecting their overall view. I'm a little bit more pessimistic in that capacity. So the way we kind of evaluate risk, I'm more so willing to buy in sample. you're more so willing to buy in older players.

Yeah, I mean it's pretty much I mean you're higher on McLaurin who's an older player. It's pretty much just Evans and Adams that I'm willing to buy. Evans older players, but um yeah, generally I like to to try and anchor myself a little bit more than like a couple of games with Burden, which is fine. I I love the prospect. I think he can definitely develop and become the number one receiver there. And in a best-case scenario, I just worry about the likelihood of it happening. Um, again, Mike Evans, we know this the history of this player. he's been thousand yards every year of his career that he's been healthy, which of course was last year not being the case.

San Francisco, I don't I don't want to sit here and say that San Francisco is going to be as good as they were last year. I think it's possible they could regress a little bit. Um, however, I think that Mike Evans in the fourth round, in the fifth round, feels like a pretty comfortable click to me just because I know in the red zone he's going to have a lot of autonomy to be a go up and get it guy. he has 10 plus touchdown upside on a good team and I've brought up the point before that he doesn't really get schemed open very often and Kyle Shanahan could make that a priority. I don't want to spend too much time on Evans because I feel like everybody knows what they're getting with him. Um, but I do think he has a slightly better projection here than he would have had he stayed in Tampa Bay.

Yeah, I mean uh obviously the offensive projection like we go to the Vegas projections alone and they're probably like the sixth the sixth ranked offense. Like if I go Mason.

I can see right now on on Mike Clay's projections because I haven't gotten to San Francisco yet on my own. Um, fourth in offensive points per game.

Number seven by Vegas. So like yeah, number four by Mike, number seven by Vegas. You're probably going to have them at worst like eighth or ninth, probably higher to be honest. Like yeah, the offensive projection is vary there. The issue that I have with Mike Evans is we're always going to get the hamstring flare-ups. I do think this is very clearly a very high I would say competition for targets assuming KD's healthy and there's reports there's videos of him running in training camp right now running in running in the.

Off higher than Tampa Bay's competition for targets though would be my counter.

H I mean George Kittle plus McCaffrey overall is probably if both are healthy a 180 to 200 targets.

Maybe. But like think about what Mike Evans has had in his career. Like Chris Godwin second leading receiver in franchise history. Aiyuk last year. J-Mac at the end of like at the end of 2024 you had Godwin out but Jac producing like he's had multiple target he's done this already. He's done this many times like target competitions. He eats it for breakfast. He has, but betting on the 33-year-old moving teams in the offseason to a team with a whole different target hierarchy to me I feel like you have to factor into a certain point.

I do factor it in which is why he's in the 40s and not in the 30s for me because I have a player who's been a wide receiver one every year of his career that he's been healthy.

Yeah, again, like you're you're more so willing to overlook the age, overlook the change in team because you're like, "Oh, this could be this."

It's a round discount for the age. I'm not overlooking it. He'd be in the 30s for me if he didn't, if he wasn't 33 years old. But I'm saying both those factors, you're willing to overlook. Like, in totality, you are, because that's why you're drafting him in the 40s. So, yeah. I mean, I'm not, I, they're, they're factoring into my ranking of it, though. It's not overlooked. I'm just factoring it in less than you are.

Yeah. Well, that's when I say overlook, I'm not, and I'm not saying that you're just completely ignoring all the negative factors. It's just more so you're willing to overcome them. You acknowledge them and you realize, hey, I acknowledge these and I'm still willing to take the plunge. And he'll be off my board if he's banged up in training camp, for what it's worth. The second he gets banged up in training camp, he's off my board. And honestly, during the season, if he starts producing, I'd probably look to sell high on him as well.

So, the, and I'll just tell you the reason why he's lower for me. I have him at 26. Uh, two factors. So, first of all, I have Devonte Adams one spot ahead of him because I think they're the same thesis, except we saw it from Devonte Adams last year in a new team. I think that's fair, way ahead of him.

Um, and then the difference here would be that obviously, we talked about Burton already. We talked about Wilson already. But two guys we haven't talked about yet are Carnell Tate and Tedroy McMillan. I'd rather take the risk on their offensive situations than I would take the risk on the age of Evans. That's where I'm at with them because I think both are going to be potentially 23, 24-year-old ascending players versus a 33-year-old descending player.

Mathematically, the biggest bust in this territory of the draft are rookies. Just by the way. I know. It's just more so I think or Carnell Tate maybe outweighs what you think Evans, but historically, the the bigger, the bigger L, the bigger bust is more likely to be the Tedo McMillan and Carnell Tates of the world than it is the Mike Evans and Devonte Adams of the world.

We'll talk about Tate because, uh, that is clearly, as you guys will see, the biggest discrepancy in our rankings by far.

Okay, we got to speed this up. Tedo McMillan, he is lower for both of us, but definitely for me, mainly just because I don't think there's much more meat left on the bone here. And it's not because I don't think Bryce Young can take a step forward. It's not because I don't think Tedro McMillan can take a step forward. It's that he's used exceiver, big boy routes, number one corners. I don't think we're going to see a 70% catch rate from this guy. So, he's going to need touchdowns and big plays. And Bryce Young is not really the type of quarterback that's going to, you know, throw for 4,700 yards and have 30 plus touchdowns. And Jaylen Coker is going to be a factor. They just paid him a big contract. And when on the field together, Tedo McMillan's target share, I have it copy and pasted basically as his projection, um, was about 24% instead of the 25, 26% it was without, uh, Jaylen Coker. So that's a factor.

Yeah. Yeah, I definitely think it is a factor. I would agree with you overall. But when we look at, if it was what Carolina, I guess the main difference would be the overall congestion of targets amongst the tight ends, amongst the other receivers, amongst even the backfield. Like I just look at it as McMillan and Coker are clearly the two best targets on this team. And I think both can just naturally take steps.

Yeah. And like, just so you know, like when I project out, like you might be like 18% of the team's targets for the tight end core of the Carolina Panthers. How the hell are they going to get that many targets? That's like a really low number for a tight end core. Just FYI.

And I just think it's giving them too much credit because I think those guys are glorified blockers.

Yeah, maybe. Again, I only have them projected for 97 targets between the three of them.

Yeah. Yeah. And again, I like the backfield, but also just 92 backfield targets. A little, little high for me.

Um, I mean, so Dave Canales likes to run a lot of boot action, get the ball in the hands of the running backs. They're also like, again, philosophically, they're one of the slowest-paced, lowest pass rate teams in football.

To a certain point, but also, um, it's a top 10 pick who just had over 1,000 yards as a rookie. I think naturally projecting a guy to take the step of 1150, I think is reasonable. And also, I think the function of how the offensive passing game went last year, we didn't really get the full glimpse because also keep in mind that Jaylen Coker was basically unusable in the first eight weeks of the year.

I haven't projected for 918 yards and five touchdowns. I got quite a bit of production.

I'm just more so saying how the targets are distributed. Like obviously you have Coker projected well. I'm just more so saying maybe the reason why the backfield targets were so high last year in the first eight or so games was because Coker was missing time.

Maybe. But I also have Bryce Young projected for a career high in yards, yards per attempt, touchdowns, completion percentage. Like I have him having a career season and even still, I have Ted McMillan for like barely 13 points per game.

Yeah, I guess, I guess the argument would be there. Um, like the split between McMillan and Coker isn't really the conversation. It's more so just how much can both of them combined accumulate on this offense? Can they be legitimately 48 to 50% of the targets combined?

It's, I feel like we say that about every offense in football and it actually rarely happens.

To a degree, but again, you have them at 42%. So, you do you really think it's outrageous to say a third-year receiver and a second-year receiver can just naturally both take a step, two to 3%? It's, that's just not how projection work usually.

No, I get that. But I'm saying just from a macro perspective, when we're talking about young players, we always talk about guys for sure. Ted McMillan, you like second-year receiver who was a top 10 pick. That's a heuristics-based from a projection standpoint. I think he's overvalued.

Yeah. Which again, like I think we have to balance both the heuristics as well as the projections. Obviously, the projections kind of keep us, uh, on earth a little bit, but also at the same time, we can acknowledge that young players do naturally get better.

Yeah. Another guy that I'm not on earth with is, uh, Brian Thomas Jr. Uh, 51st overall in my rankings.

Oh, he skyrocketed up your rankings for sure.

Yeah, he's up my rankings for sure. Uh, 26th overall in my positional. Um, Brian Thomas Jr. again, just philosophically, he's been a wide receiver one before.

And that's just, he's, this is not Mike Evans or Devonte Adams that I'm talking about here. Like Mike, Brian Thomas Jr. in his short two-year career has already finished as a wide receiver one before, which is when you're a wide receiver one in their prime. I talked about it last year. That was the Chris Olive archetype in the mid rounds. That is the Jaylen Wadd archetype in the mid rounds. That was a couple years ago before his injury, Chris Godwin's archetype in the mid rounds. When you have a guy that's already put up like 1300 yards and eight touchdowns or whatever, it's just so much more likely, 10 touchdowns, that he's going to do it again. So, I get the Parker Washington and the Jacobe Myers and the Travis Hunter of it all. Brian Thomas, the best receiver on this team. So, I have, um, BTJ ranked ahead of ADP because I haven't had to, you know, put him fully up. I could even get him close to like 23, 22 at receiver because at the end of the day, all I have to explain is an offense we are both bought into with a quarterback we both believe in. Oh, by the way, the quarterback that was the quarterback one in point scam down the stretch that, uh, legitimately took a step up down the stretch in Liam Con's system on a receiver that if you just flipped the overall career seasons and you said he was an eight-point or a 9.9 point per game guy as a rookie and a 16.7 point per game guy as a second-year player, he would be going in the top 12 to 15 of drafts.

Well, and he was last year and nobody thought it was outrageous. Not one person did I hear say Brian Thomas shouldn't be going this high.

Yeah. And ultimately, again, the only factor that I had more last year because keep in mind too, like I am a little bit baking in that, you know, Hunter might not play the full allotment of snaps on offense. And frankly, again, people might be saying, well, there's Jacobe Myers and Parker Washington. I think Travis Hunter at his 80th to 100th percentile outcome where he's playing full-time offense is absolutely more of a threat to Brian Thomas Jr. than Parker Washington and Jacobe Myers. The nuts and bolts are this guy's been a former 1300 plus yard receiver. He plays as a big play ex-wide receiver, one of the best projectable offenses in the league, and you're getting him at wide receiver 31 because he wasn't good as a second-year player fighting through injury. I think his, the fact that him and Lad don't go literally back to back in ADP to me is shocking because it's almost exactly the same thesis for both players.

Yeah, I, I definitely think that's valid. I think ultimately, like there are obviously more mouths in in in in Jacksonville, like objectively speaking.

They also have more volume than Los Angeles does though.

Yeah. Um, again, you're not going to hear me talk negative on Brian Thomas Jr. Um, he's wide receiver 31 in ADP. We both have him ahead of ADP and honestly, like I said, if his ADP was even 42nd overall, 43rd overall, I think that would be more applicable.

Yeah. Okay. We are rattling these Romo Dunay, um, same thesis as Luther Burden. If he didn't have like the whole like stuff with his foot and so, first of all, Dr. James Freddy assured me that's not really a huge issue. Dr. Scholes inserts will solve that. Like it's not like something that's an absolute issue here. However, Romo Dunay is not the one getting the drum beat. I'm the number one receiver on this team. Luther Burden has been the one getting that drum beat. So, I have to adjust a little bit. I still am of the opinion that assuming health for both players, that Romo Dun will slightly be better for fantasy, but I have them projected for 14.25 and 13.8 PPR points per game, respectively. So, I do think that the right answer will probably be either or both. I think that they're probably both going to be solid picks at ADP, but because they both exist. And of course, I have Coulson Lovelin projected for the most points per game out of this receiver core. Um, neither of them are going to smash, I guess, would be my opinion. Even if the offense smashes, I think neither of these guys will smash.

So, I guess, uh, what I will say is if either of these guys were to become legitimate 18, 19 plus point game scorers, you would probably need Caleb Williams to be a top three MVP candidate. And it will have to come at the expense of the other one in my opinion to some degree, like injury or just one playing bad or something like that. Odun is not ripping off 18 points per game unless Burden stinks or is injured.

Yeah. Or if he just had an outlier 17 touchdown year probably.

Yeah. Or something like that. So again, I don't think we need to spend much more time on OD. We talked about the Bears offense already. Jameson Williams, number one easiest schedule in the league. Jameson Williams, we saw the implied upside of what happens with Sam Laorter or Amonra St. Brown goes down because every week this is a guy that we're ranking inside our top 12 to 15 receivers down the stretch because he was just an absolute monster. We're hearing again the drum beat that he could take yet another step forward. I would like to point out that even though he was wide receiver 21 in points per game last year, was a historically bad season for wide receiver twos in fantasy. 12.94 points per game was like what Darnell Mooney put up in 2024 as like wide receiver.

Look at it as simply as this. Those are averages. The year he averaged 14.15, he was a lower wide receiver ranked than the year he averaged 12.94.

Exactly.

Tells you all you need to know.

It is. But that being said, I have an absolute hard on for this Detroit Lions offense. And I will take Jameson Williams in round five just because I know he can be a great spike week producer for me on one of the best offenses in football. So, in baseball specifically, because obviously I think his redraft ADP is probably going to be lower just based off the fact that people love consistency in redraft and he is, he's not that. That he's not that. And again, we can acknowledge that.

But the reason why you take him in baseball, and I think this would echo this would also echo with who you think the wide receiver three is in Chicago. You want access to the top offenses in isolated spike week territory. Once week 14, 15, 16, 17 comes, doesn't really matter if you got the guy who scored the most accumulated points up to that point. It matters of who's in the right game environment, who has legitimate spike week upside. So, even though I think a Dunay is the wide receiver three in Chicago, even though I think Sam or Sam Laorta, uh, Jameson Williams is the third or fourth target in Detroit, at the end of the day, when the money is on the line at the top in a best ball scenario specifically, they have to be pushed up the board because we've seen the evidence spike week upside.

Yeah. Yeah. No disagreements there. He's been in the league long enough, we kind of know what he is. Um, this is one where I think people are going to do the like, oh my god, look how high his ceiling is. Um, without doing the projection because when I did the Buffalo Bills projections, I gave DJ Moore a 20.8% target share, which would be a big improvement from last year's target share that he had and also a pretty big improvement from any receiver on the Bills the last couple of years as well. He came out with 13.09 points per game. So I kind of almost view him very similar to Teroa McMillan in the sense that not because of Josh Allen versus Bryce Young, but because they do spread the ball out. They will pass the ball to their running backs. They do have Khalil Shakir still who they like feeding the ball to. And I think Dalton Kincaid, actually, of all the Bills pass catchers at value is my favorite at price. Um, I think DJ Moore is going to go a little bit higher in home leagues just because the casuals are going to see Buffalo Bills wide receiver one. But I do think he's still an okay pick in the fifth, sixth round. It's just that in home leagues, especially where you and I are from, close to the Buffalo area, he's gonna go in round four because people are going to go, "He's the Bills wide receiver one."

Yeah. There's two ways to look at it because there's going to be the people that just saying, "Oh, he's the Bills wide receiver one." And there's going to be the people that I don't want to say overthink it, but are going to outweigh all the negative metrics as opposed to the situation. Because obviously, you look at it, a guy that's followed in three straight years in terms of yards per run, 2.34 in his 2023 Chicago year where he was the wide receiver rate eight down to 1.51 down to 1.26. I'm sorry, but if you're under 1.6 yards per run, I don't even care about your role. You're probably not going to be too valuable. I think it's got to be a mix of both. He's probably got to be about a 1.8, 1.9 yards per run player and also the situation is going to get him back on track to like you said, maybe 12 to 15 points per game.

Yeah. And again, similar to what we said about Jameson Williams, 14.01 points per game two years ago would have been wide receiver 12. Last year, not wide receiver 29 like it was in 2024. So, I mean, that's not insignificant production that he put up in Chicago when they sucked. Like they had.

Look at those per game. Oh my god. Like I think it's possible that DJ Moore could rip off, you know, a 1,200 yard, eight touchdown season. I, I wouldn't put it outside the range of outcomes, especially if Dalton Kincaid continues to deal with injuries and that kind of thing. The problem though is that I think they needed like a man coverage beating receiver to fully unlock this passing game and they don't really have one still. So like that's that's kind of the issue I have with DJ Moore is that I think there's he's going to vary league to league. If you're in leagues like me with like four or five Bills fans in the Buffalo area, this, there's no way I'm going to get DJ Moore at value. But if you're in a league where people are like, "Ah, DJ Moore not very good anymore. He'll probably go at like, you know, the five, six turn in some leagues." Then yeah, I think I'm comfortable with him there.

Yeah. I'm sorry, Bills fans, you might want to cover your ears, but I cannot possibly understand how two years ago you had the opportunity to deal a three for George Pickens, who literally completely fixes your entire need on offense. Like you said, man coverage, beating receiver.

Well, they didn't want a diva, so he doesn't fix that need.

Dog, who cares about a diva? They had Stefon Diggs.

Well, exactly why they didn't want a diva.

Fair. I, I don't know. It's just the process of being able to get that type of guy for a third-round pick at 24 years old versus a 27-year-old DJ Moore for a second a year later. Like, that screams panic move. But at the end of the day, in fantasy, we don't care if it's a panic move if he's scoring points.

Yeah, exactly. Um, Marvin Harrison Jr., I'm obviously the one carrying this ranking. I'd imagine I'm having wide receiver 30. If I go to general and see the rest of the site, so it looks like me and Avery are the only ones inside the top 60 positionally. We're the only ones inside the top 30 at receiver.

Again, projections made me lower on Harrison. And I'm glad I've been doing projections because I would have been higher on Harrison than I am now had I not done projections because when you go to Arizona and you regress down their pass rate a little bit because they're not going to be unsustainably throwing 45 times a game like they were down the stretch and you also kind of progress Marvin Harrison beyond what he's done so far in his career because so far in his career he hasn't been, you know, a 23.2% target share player, which is what I have him projected for. He hasn't been 139 target player like I have him projected for. You have to do it at the expense of Michael Wilson, which I'm very comfortable doing because I don't think he's very good.

That's the point, right? So, you have Harrison projected lower, 3, 13.23, obviously fine, but like, you have a projected overall lower and that's with a 4.5 point delta between him and Michael Wilson. If those of you are watching at home and you think it's more of a 55, 45, 60 as opposed to what would that be, a 35% difference in projection, then you're probably going to end up with an 11.5 point per game player and a 12 point per game player or an 11.5 point per game player and an 11.8 point per game player. Like if you think those guys are close, they're probably both a little bit overpriced. But if you have a stance one way or another is how you kind of get to where they're at.

In which is what my stance is obviously. And in in the full career split with with Marvin Harrison and and uh Michael Wilson both on the field.

I mean, Michael Wilson's useless for fantasy wide receiver 61 over that period of time, which is my opinion of Michael Wilson, which we've had at least 68 different arguments about.

People might have simmed in the video just for this part. By the way.

Marvin Harrison Jr. is still worth his price even in that scenario for me. If maybe you're just like, I'll just take Michael Wilson two rounds later, a round and a half later, that's totally fair. 67.880p, he's baked in at that point in time. I'm going off of a large sample of him being the number one receiver, not target, receiver on this team. And I do think that even though they're going to be a little bit lower of a pass rate, I think that Jacobe Brassette will still be able to function this offense because had Marvin Harrison stayed healthy, we might be having a different conversation about him. And even in his healthy games, we saw the spike week upside. And I do think playing X receiver in the NFL is very difficult. And I think that Marvin Harrison Jr. can take the classic third-year wide receiver breakout leap. Does that equal 17 points per game? Definitely not. The Cardinals aren't going to be good for that. But it could equal 13 or 14 points per game, 1,000 yards, eight touchdowns, which is a very good pick in the seventh round or the 67 turn where he's going right now.

Yeah. So where I have both these guys ranked, I have them at 73 and 82 respectively. But, um, the, see, the thing is, it's not really a congruent hit because I do think if Marvin Harrison were to hit, you do have the ceiling of him, you know, the prospect profile, maybe he figured it out versus with Wilson, if he hits, it's more so just, oh, we saw him be a thousand-yard receiver last year.

Of this year kind of situation if he hits probably.

Yeah, I would say maybe a little bit higher, but like probably similar, similar projection there. Yeah.

Okay. Final guy from this tier and then we'll, we won't even go in depth on the next year. We'll just kind of show it and rapid fire it. Uh, Quinton Johnson. It's out of one name who would be on this range.

I talked about him yesterday, so I'm not going to make the case for. I am way higher than everyone on the site, including the literal Quinton Johnston truther, Mason Dodd. I have Quinton Johnson absurdly high in my rankings and it's very simple. I view him as almost equal to Lad McConi. Lad McConi goes at 37 or wherever he goes. So I'm comfortable taking Quinton Johnson in the 60s or in the 70s or in the 80s. Like he's going in the 80s, I'll take him in the 60s or 70s to make sure I get him because as I detailed in yesterday's video, TLDDR version, he's an excellent fit for the offense. Slants, drags, all that stuff in Mike McDaniel's scheme is worth two and a half times more fantasy points than the average NFL offense. And that's Quinton Johnston's. He scored eight touchdowns in back-to-back seasons. Last year, wide receiver 26 in points per game, wide receiver 19 of wide receivers that finished eight or more games in the NFL season. So, for me, it's a contract year. I think he can be like this year's Alec Pierce, except, yeah, it's on a better team. It's on an offense with Justin Herbert. It's on an offense called by Mike McDaniel. So, instead of whatever Pierce had last year, 12, 13 points per game, I think Quinton Johnson could have 14, 15, no problem.

So, it really sucks that I feel like I have to make the con uh of this cuz I have him right in line with ADP. I literally have him as the second highest on the entire site. And.

Well, don't make the con then. If you're right, you're high on them too.

Well, I'm high on them too. But I also think like I'm a lot lower than where you're at. And part of it is I view it as more of a chasm between what I think Lad can be versus where I think Hu H Q H Q H Q H Q H Q H Q H Q H Q H Q H QJ can be ultimately. I feel like obviously this is the complete Walmart version. I'm not saying that either of these guys are going to be as good as these guys, but also like if Lad's like the Chase here and Quinton Johnson's like the Higgins, that's kind of how I view the discrepancy obviously on a completely different scale.

Yeah, exactly. So pretty, pretty Walmart version, but very, very good projection nonetheless. Again, we can just go through these guys other than Tate, who I'm sure you're gonna want to go a little bit more in depth on. All three rookies.

I'll just give my opinion on all three rookies really quick. All three rookies have good projections realistically. Like Tate goes into a situation, he could be the number one right away. Lemon, number two opposite Devonte Smith. Not going to see number one coverage. I think the Eagles are going to be a decent passing offense this year, which is not a consensus opinion, but it's my opinion. Jordan Tyson, good projection, high pace of play for the New Orleans Saints. All three of them are worth their, let's say, respective. I guess Tate's going a little bit higher than these two guys, but I would say in round six, round seven, round eight is where you're going to get most of these rookie receivers in redraft leagues. I would say all three of them are worth that price tag. I just want to make sure that when I'm building out a team, they're my wide receiver three, four, or five, not my wide receiver one or two.

Yeah, which I think is reasonable. And the point I was going to make, by the way, is, um, this is also just a graphical thing with the tier list view. Like if we go to the rankings view, Tate, Watson, and Lemon would actually, I believe, be in the tier above.

Not Lemon, just Tate and Watson.

Uh, Tate and Watson. Okay, so my apologies. But yeah, going back on Tate, there is a, a wide delta, I would say, between where you have him and where I have him. And that's also just off the fact that I'm just completely pro Tate. I understand I'd probably be at that stance coming into the video, but he is a guy that I'd be willing to take at that four or five turn. At the end of the day here, when I look at the prospect grade I had for Neighbors, the prospect grade I had for Carnell Tate, them being in my opinion, similar prospects with similar draft capital with similar opportunity with similar offensive coordinators with similar offensive question marks. You're having to take Neighbors in the mid third. And the fact that you're getting Tate closer to the late 50s, the early 60s on Underdog, maybe even later in some of your home league drafts. Again, I just don't think the price equals the talent level and the opportunity that Tate has at hand. Even if you're lower on the Titans offense, because again, I am a little bit more bullish. I do think with D-ball, I do think with the natural step Ward can take, this could be more of a fringe top 15 to 20 unit as opposed to a bottom five unit. If you're lower on the offense, I understand, but at the same time, this guy can threaten 23 to 25% of the targets as soon as year one.

Yeah, I think Tate is live to Marvin Harrison his rookie year, which is obviously price, not the same price point, but he is live to do it because he's going to have to play X receiver and because he's going to have to beat number one corners and because Juan Delale can earn targets and because some of the other things and I think that the Titans will be a bottom five to 10 offense as well.

So, the question that I have is, didn't we view that at all basically for Tedo McMillan last year and he was a top 40 pick in terms of consensus?

Yeah, he was live to Marvin Harrison too.

But that's what I'm saying. It's like the fact that, the fact that in my opinion, Tedall was an even inferior prospect to what I view Carnal Tate as. He went lower in his NFL draft. We had question marks of his offense last year and yet he was a top 40 pick. So why is Carnal Tate going 20 picks cheaper?

I don't disagree with your premise that wherever Tedoa was going, I don't agree on Neighbors at all. I think that Neighbors was a much better prospect. But on Tedoa specifically, I do agree that wherever Tedoa was going, Tate should probably be going similar to that. I think that's totally fair. I just personally don't think that Tate should go there because both Marvin Harrison and Tedroa weren't great picks at where they were going and we've learned from that and that's why the ADP's adjusted.

To a degree. But don't you think that's baked in completely? Like, like you have him at wide receiver 33. I feel like that's acknowledging that everything's going to go wrong.

Like, let me, where do I have him relative to his ADP? So I'm a little bit lower than his ADP. Yeah, wide receiver 33. Again, I, the only reason I have him that way is because Quinton Johnston type guys are ahead of him just in pure projection for me. If I was at my point in the draft where I was going, I already have three receivers. I just need a straight up bench upside swing, I would probably take Carnell Tate over Quinton Johnson. It's just if I'm at a point where I'm in a three wide receiver, two flex, full PPR, deeper league where this guy's a starter, I would rather have Quint Johnson.

But that's the thing, you could always bank up some, you know, depth later on in the draft. You can always take the 10th, 11th. Yeah, I like QJ. O obviously you have him 21 picks ahead of consensus. So you're very high on QJ. I just think the premise of let me pass on the fourth overall pick for a guy in year four I'm expecting to take a leap. I can't get there at all.

He was, you look at 26 receiver last year already.

I get that. I get that. But again, when I view Carnal Tate as a legitimate 92 overall type of grade, you had him at what 90 overall type of grade as a prospect. You had him great as a top 10 overall player. We both did. Like that type of prospect profile, as good as QJ is, he doesn't have that ceiling.

He doesn't, but he also wide receiver 26, which is what Quinton Johnson was last year. I would put that as an upper to high-end range of outcomes for Carnell Tate on this terrible of a Titans team with a receiver that is not super athletic who needs to win with technique, which will take time.

Sure. I, I view it as a three-level threat that can command 25% of the targets by week four. And yeah, you're right. He could potentially start out slow out the gates. We could see Juan Delale Robinson have the games where he has 12 targets for 68 receiving yards. Like that'll probably happen.

I know by week four trade targets, Juan Delale Robinson will be wide receiver 7 in fantasy and we're going to be telling high on him.

Yeah, if you're baking in a slow start. Sure. If you're saying, "Hey, I would only rank him at wide receiver 33 because I think I can trade for him at wide receiver 33 by week on him to be honest."

Huh.

Pretty much exactly my opinion on him, why I have him ranked there.

Like if that's your case, sure. Just if you're in a league where people know, oh, I'm going to take Carnal Tate at the wide receiver 28 price tag and I'm not going to panic sell him by week four. If that's the case, again, I would be willing to get aggressive because I do think come week six, week seven on, we could be looking at a legitimate 16, 17 point game player.

Yeah, I just, I think you're going to have buying windows on him. From a basketball standpoint, you want to rank in there because you feel that way. I just, I don't, I, I think the Titans are going to stink. I think Tate could have ups and downs, bumps and bruises as a rookie. I think if I had to set the over under on Ketero McMillan's rookie exact production for Carnell Tate, I would probably lean the under slightly.

Oh, I'm smashing the over.

Yeah, I, I know that. I'm saying I would probably lean towards the under. Um.

Yeah, I guess my take though is like we said all those negatives for Neighbors and he was literally a top.

And Tate are not the same caliber of prospect. You are the only person.

Even if you had Neighbors above Tate, just the fact of the, they were both 90 plus grades for you, both top 10 grades for you. Like, yeah, even if you say Neighbors was better than Tate, I'm not saying Tate's going to be the wide receiver seven in fantasy. I just think you have to factor in that he easily has top 12 to 15 appeal down the stretch.

He does. I just, I'm going to buy low on that and I'm not going to.

You're assuming a lot with the league you're in. Maybe if you're.

People were trying to buy Tedro McMillan from me last year, thinking the exact same thing.

In in your home league.

Yeah.

Yeah. I mean, like if you're specifically on like, let's just say in the Flock league though, and if I or Sammy or Mason draft card.

You're going to take him two and a half rounds before I want to take him. So there.

You're not trading for Tate on the low in a league that knows what's going on.

No, I would because you're going to roster him. First of all, Sammy's a Titans fan and you're a Carnell Tate truther. There's zero chance he's on anybody's team but yours and I know there's zero chance I would ever buy him from you because you think he's bullied neighbors, which I adamantly disagree with.

Yeah. Which again, uh, that's the take there. Uh, Tate at 23 for me. 33. Even if you're lower on the star, you have to have him higher than that, bro. Come on.

I might need to move him up just a little bit. I'll probably put him at ADP. He's going around 60. I think that's a fair price for him.

Like, you can't take like J Mo and DJ. No, man. No way.

J Mo all day.

No way.

Um, the reason why I can't take J Mo over him is because I think Christian Watson's the exact same thesis, except he's a very more proven number one on his offense.

Well, I have Christian Watson ranked over Carnell Tate, too. Um, Christian Watson, uh, last year came on down the stretch, 13.24 fantasy points per game, wide receiver 19. Second year removed from the ACL terror. Let me ask you this.

No more Romeo Doubs. Like, lot of good bull signals here.

Why do we have JO over him? Real talk. Like, like just like honest question. Why do we have Jameson Williams ranked above Christian Watson?

Are you remembering that Jameson Williams was a legitimate league winner last year?

Okay, but he averaged 12.9 points per game in totality. And you can make the case for Christian Watson having back-weighted production as well.

You want to rank him over him? I'm not going to stop you.

But I'm just asking you as a consensus. Like people kind of treat Jameson Williams like a round ahead of Christian Watson. To me, there's the same bet. You're betting on with Jameson Williams the big play upside in a more insulated offense while also acknowledging he's not the number one or possibly might not be the number two target versus Christian Watson's a lesser offensive projection, but he is the clear one in my opinion.

100 more pass attempts projected for the Detroit Lions and the pace of play is significantly higher. Remember that Drew Pig, the guy who made Jacobe Brassette throw the ball 45 times a game, is now the offensive coordinator of the Detroit Lions. And they might throw the least amount of pass attempts in the entire NFL.

Is Bam Knight Jir Gibbs though?

No, of course not.

They're going to like the Lions are a pass-heavy team even without factoring in Drew Ping. Like they were a pass-heavy team before. The, the Packers have always been very slow-paced, very run-heavy. But that was a factor last year where Christian Watson outscored Jameson Williams and he's going picks later.

You're right. But I Christian Watson might not do it again. We don't have a large sample of Christian Watson being an excellent receiver. I have a bigger sample of Jameson Williams being a better receiver than Christian Watson.

Yeah. I just frankly think if you're both, if you're drafting both on the thesis that they're big ex-wide receivers that can contribute down the field, like I would rather take the upside shot around later on Christian Watson knowing that he could be the number one there.

I, that's totally fine. I, I would rather take Jameson Williams, but it's totally fine. I just want the Lions. I have a man crush on the team. I will take the Detroit Lion that is on the board at any point in time, whether it's Leaporta, St. Brown, Gibbs, or, uh, Jameson Williams. I want a Detroit Lion on every single redraft team that I have.

Fair enough. Uh, we'll talk about these two rookies right next in conjunction.

We talked about them covered. I don't want to spend more time on them. Jordan Tyson, Mai Lemon, they're both rookies in good situations. High pass volume for the Saints. Good PPR targets available for the Eagles. We've already gone an hour five. Pitman and Godwin, veteran receivers that can catch 100 passes in the best case scenario. Like, reasonably not quite 100, more like 90, but like.

So both of them as good. This is why I wait on receiver and I take running back early. Guys like Pitman and Godwin types are available later. That's why I like these two guys.

So you definitely have both these guys higher than I do. Like if I look at my rankings, uh, Godwin I have closer to wide receiver 40 and who was the other one?

Pitman.

Pitman. I have about receiver 43. So the, the two guys missing out for me would be Josh DS and would be Michael Wilson. Obviously, we don't really have to spend any time on Michael Wilson. There's a big difference in how you project Mar versus Michael Wilson versus how I do. So I'm more on the page of it being a 55, 45, 60, 40 split, which is why I have him higher. Josh D. We're already hearing reports coming out of camp that they do want to increase his usage. They do want to use him around the formation. I understand being a little bit more pessimistic there because we haven't seen in his NFL career, but I also think he's a good enough player to be able to handle it. And if those snap usage reports are real, we could be talking about a top 20 receiver.

Yeah, he, he kind of just missed the cut here. Um, Pitman I have aggressively ranked at 32 overall wide receiver. So, I mean, I don't really even have to say anything else other than that. I, I think he's a better projection than DK MAF. I think he's going to catch more passes than DK Mafe. I think he's going to probably score more touchdowns than DK Maf as well because he fits Rodgers' skill set more. And then Godwin, we've heard some reports that he might be, you know, the favorite to lead the team in targets. Like I don't believe that. I think I will be the, the major number one receiver here. However, Chris Godwin is one of the most accomplished receivers that you're going to find in this territory of the draft. I he goes seventh, eighth, ninth round, like, and you have at least at least three instances in his career of him being a wide receiver one in fantasy. So I think you can feel pretty confident that if the Bucks are at least the league average offense, then Godwin's going to pay off at ADP. He feels like the Jacobe Myers of this year, like where you take him, you know, ninth round is your second flex and he rips off 13 points per game this year. Yeah, I could, I could probably capitulate Godwin upwards of wide receiver 37, wide receiver 38, I would say, like right where I have above Michael Wilson's projection, but, um, like I, you're right, I probably should have him above Addison. I should probably should have him above DK at the very minimum so I can capitulate there. Um, I guess the concern I have with Godwin is we have had the season-ending injuries. He is an older receiver. Like, is his body fully where it was a couple years ago prior to the injury? I guess.

Second on the site, by the way, just FYI.

Which is wild to me because I, I feel like I'm baking in a lot of the concern there, but also acknowledge like if he's healthy, like I view this target core as a lot more ambiguous than maybe some people do, too.

And he's younger than Terry McLaurin, by the way, who you know, you're super high on.

Yeah. No, I, I get that, but also I feel like a lot less injury concerns with Terry McLaurin because last time we saw Godwin on the field, he literally hurt. He literally looked hurt.

Right, but nothing that he has right now would be predictive of future injuries.

It's more so just accumulation of hamstring injuries and knee injuries and lower body injuries. Like a 30-year-old body is not a 26-year-old body like in that capacity.

No. But anyways, that is the end of the wide receivers. I mean, I guess top 36 to 40ish wide receivers that we got through. We broke down the first 12 to 15 in depth in Monday's video and then we broke down another, you know, probably all the way from round late round three to like the seventh, eighth round as far as all these mid-round guys. This is where the money's made, folks. I mean, you, you go running back early because you believe running back early is the strategy here. You're going to need to hit on receivers in this territory of the draft. And I think that's going to be the most popular draft strategy this year is to wait on wide receivers to go for round four, round five, round six, round seven wide receivers. So trying to find the hits, the guys that are the 13 and 14 point per game receivers and then maybe the smashes, the last year's George Pickens, Chris Ave types, that's going to be a really crucial part of fantasy drafts this year. So if you guys want all of our bonus content, all of our season pass content for redraft is available right now. That'll be linked down below in the pinned comment. If you want to draft some best ball teams, you can use our best ball tool over on Underdog. And of course, you can use our promo code over on Underdog as well. Promo code FSC will get you up to 50% back on your first deposit and you will also get $50 in bonus entries, a gim to use on MLB, World Cup stuff, whatever you guys are doing there. And of course, you get your practice in for your home leagues. That's the thing that we always talk about as maybe one of the most valuable parts of doing Underdog drafts is you understand where players are going in sharp formats, especially if your format is a three wide receiver start. You get to understand kind of how valuable receivers can be. Um, but yeah, everything in between. Hopefully you guys enjoyed. Like, comment, subscribe, all that good stuff. But with that being said, peace out. We'll talk to you soon.